Core Viewpoint - The U.S. September CPI growth rate is lower than expected, which may lead the market to continue on a rate cut path, supporting bullish trends in precious and industrial metals [1] Industrial Metals - Despite insufficient demand during the peak season, supply-side disruptions, particularly rising resource nationalism in mining, are increasing the upstream-downstream game, and combined with historically low inventory levels, this provides strong support for prices [1] - The upcoming U.S.-China trade negotiations and the Federal Reserve's rate cuts are expected to improve macro sentiment, potentially enhancing domestic and international demand expectations, which is favorable for industrial metal prices [1] - However, recent U.S.-China negotiations may increase price volatility [1] Precious Metals - In the medium to long term, under the restructuring of the global monetary system, gold is expected to continue to show performance opportunities [1] ETF Overview - The Nonferrous 60 ETF (159881) tracks the CSI Nonferrous Index (930708), which selects listed companies involved in the mining, smelting, and processing of nonferrous metals from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, covering major sectors such as copper, gold, aluminum, rare earths, and lithium, reflecting the overall performance of related listed companies in the nonferrous metal industry [1]

10月26日，中美经贸团队在马来西亚吉隆坡结束为期两天的磋商，美财长受访就此回应。美财长说美 国"不再考虑"对中国加征100%的关税。报道称中美双方进行了坦诚、深入、富有建设性的交流磋商， 就解决各自关切的安排达成基本共识。报道称这是5月以来中美经贸团队的第五次面对面磋商。 ...

2025 年 10 月 27 日 铜：宏观情绪改善，价格上涨 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 87,720 | 1.92% | 87660 | -0.07% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 10,947 | 1.20% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜指数 | 301,579 | 109,298 | 583,612 | 38,667 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 25,665 | 1,628 | 319,000 | 3,718 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪铜 | 35,071 | -977 | - | - | | | 伦铜 | 136,350 | -575 | 7.59% | -0.28% | | | | | 昨 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2512 is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is weakly oscillatory, with an overall oscillatory outlook. The short - term expectation of interest rate cuts has declined, while the medium - and long - term expectation of monetary easing still exists [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is weakly oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the overall reference view is oscillatory. In the short term, treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate and consolidate [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2512 variety, the short - term is oscillatory, the medium - term is oscillatory, the intraday is weakly oscillatory, and the overall view is oscillatory. The core logic is that the short - term expectation of interest rate cuts has declined, while the medium - and long - term expectation of monetary easing still exists [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, and TS. The intraday view is weakly oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory. The core logic is that last Friday, treasury bond futures oscillated and consolidated within a narrow range. After the news of China - US economic and trade consultations was released, although no substantial agreement was reached, external uncertainty risks decreased. With the release of the communiqué of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee, the expectation of policy benefits increased, the risk appetite of the stock market rebounded significantly, and the demand for treasury bonds was suppressed. From a macro perspective, the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand still exists, and a relatively loose monetary environment is needed in the medium and long term to stabilize the demand side, which strongly supports treasury bond futures. However, due to the strong resilience of the macro - economy, the necessity of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term is insufficient, and the upward momentum of treasury bond futures is lacking [5].

Macro Insights - The report emphasizes the dual policy line of "industrial technology + boosting domestic demand," reflecting the central government's commitment to economic transformation and upgrading [2] - The construction of a modern industrial system has been prioritized, indicating a stronger focus on how technological innovation integrates with industrial development [2] - High-level opening up has been elevated in importance, suggesting a proactive approach to gaining development advantages amid global competition [2] Market Data - The US inflation data for September was lower than expected, primarily due to declines in housing, used car, and truck prices, which may pave the way for future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3] - The market is expected to maintain a strong performance in the short term, supported by the recent policy announcements from the 20th National Congress and ongoing US-China trade negotiations [4] Bond Market - As of the end of September 2025, the total bond custody volume reached 175.46 trillion yuan, with a net increase of 0.92 trillion yuan month-on-month [5] - The secondary market for REITs showed a slight upward trend, with the weighted REITs index closing at 181.5, yielding a weekly return of 0.11% [6] - Credit bond issuance increased by 33.45% week-on-week, with a total issuance of 578.28 billion yuan [7] High-end Manufacturing - Domestic sales of construction machinery continued to grow in September, with significant recovery in non-excavator categories and strong export performance [12] - The report recommends several leading manufacturers in the construction machinery sector, including SANY Heavy Industry and XCMG, as well as component manufacturers like Hengli Hydraulic [12] Machinery Industry - In September, exports of electric tools and lawn mowers increased by 4% and 11% year-on-year, respectively, while excavator and tractor exports saw growth rates of 42% and 51% [13] - The report highlights the continued trend of declining exports to the US, while machine tools and tractors showed marginal acceleration in export growth [13] Banking Sector - The People's Bank of China reported that new RMB loans totaled 14.75 trillion yuan in the first three quarters, a year-on-year decrease of 1.27 trillion yuan, with a loan balance growth rate of 6.6% [14] - The report notes that corporate loans remain strong in key sectors such as manufacturing and technology, while real estate loans continue to decline [14] Pharmaceutical Industry - The report indicates that China's pharmaceutical innovation is gaining momentum, with domestic policies supporting innovation and stabilizing industry profitability [17] - It recommends focusing on innovative drugs and high-end medical devices, highlighting companies like Innovent Biologics and Mindray Medical [17] Company Research - Ping An Bank reported a revenue decline of 9.8% and a net profit decrease of 3.5% in the first three quarters, but asset stability was maintained [18] - Bilibili's self-developed game "Escape from Duck City" is expected to contribute significantly to revenue, with a focus on cost control and stable expenses [19] - Huizhou Technology is projected to see significant revenue growth from its data center and automotive wiring businesses, maintaining a "buy" rating [20]

Core Points - The recent round of economic and trade consultations between China and the U.S. in Kuala Lumpur resulted in a basic consensus on addressing mutual concerns, highlighting the importance of dialogue in resolving differences [1][2] - The discussions covered a wide range of topics, including U.S. maritime logistics and shipbuilding industry measures, extension of tariff suspension, fentanyl tariffs and enforcement cooperation, agricultural trade, and export controls, all of which are crucial for global supply chain stability [1][2] - Both countries emphasized the need to maintain a cooperative relationship, with China advocating for a stable and open international trade environment, while the U.S. expressed its intention not to decouple from China [2][3] Group 1 - The consultations were guided by the important consensus reached by the leaders of both nations, which has set the tone for improving and developing U.S.-China relations [2] - The essence of U.S.-China economic relations is mutual benefit, and both sides recognize that cooperation leads to shared gains while conflict results in losses [2] - China aims to expand high-level openness, providing more opportunities for all countries, including the U.S., as part of its long-term development strategy [3] Group 2 - The recent consultations are seen as a step towards maintaining stability in U.S.-China economic relations, which aligns with the fundamental interests of both nations and the expectations of the international community [2] - The Chinese government has shown strategic foresight and stability through its long-term planning, which is viewed positively by the international community amid global uncertainties [3] - The successful outcomes of the consultations require joint efforts from both countries to maintain and build upon the progress made [3]

Core Points - The core discussion between China and the US focused on various trade issues, including export controls, tariff extensions, and cooperation on fentanyl-related matters [1] Group 1: Trade Discussions - The trade talks took place in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, on October 25-26 [1] - Chinese Vice Minister of Commerce Li Chenggang stated that the discussions were in-depth and candid [1] - Key topics included export control issues, extension of tariff suspension, fentanyl tariffs, and related cooperation [1] Group 2: Constructive Dialogue - Both sides engaged in constructive discussions and explored solutions to address mutual concerns [1] - The US maintained a strong stance while China remained firm in protecting its interests [1] - Preliminary consensus was reached on several issues, with both parties set to follow internal approval processes [1]

李成钢说，双方的讨论包括众多的议题，比如双方各有关注的出口管制议题，对等关税进一步延长暂停 期问题，芬太尼关税和芬太尼禁毒合作问题，进一步扩大贸易问题，美方301船舶收费相关措施问题等 等，中美双方就此进行了建设性的探讨，美方表达立场是强硬的，中方维护利益是坚定的。经过一天多 的非常紧张的讨论，中美双方就上述这些议题建设性地探讨了一些妥善处理双方关注的方案，形成了初 步共识。下一步各自将会履行内部报批程序。 当地时间10月25日至26日，中美在马来西亚吉隆坡举行经贸磋商。 中国商务部国际贸易谈判代表兼副部长李成钢26日表示，中美经贸团队就双方关注的经贸议题进行了深 入、坦诚的讨论和交流。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent trade discussions between China and the U.S. in Kuala Lumpur focused on various economic issues, indicating a constructive dialogue despite existing tensions [2]. Group 1: Trade Discussions - The trade teams from both countries engaged in in-depth and candid discussions on key economic topics [2]. - Topics included export controls, extension of tariff suspension, fentanyl-related tariffs, and cooperation on drug enforcement [2]. - Both sides reached a preliminary consensus on handling mutual concerns, with China maintaining a firm stance on protecting its interests [2].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market - A" [4] Core Views - The report emphasizes the positive outlook for copper and aluminum prices, driven by improving fundamentals and market sentiment ahead of US-China trade negotiations. It also highlights the importance of rare earth elements in the current market context [1][2] - The report suggests a sustained bullish trend for precious metals, particularly gold and silver, due to increased central bank and ETF buying, despite recent price corrections [2][3] - The report indicates a tightening supply for aluminum and copper, with expectations of price resilience due to stable domestic supply and recovering demand [3][8] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - COMEX gold and silver prices closed at $4112 and $48.3 per ounce, reflecting declines of 1.9% and 3.2% respectively. The US September CPI was 3%, lower than market expectations, maintaining the outlook for potential Fed rate cuts [2] - Domestic physical gold demand in September rebounded to 118 tons, indicating a recovery in demand [2] - The report maintains a long-term bullish outlook for gold prices, supported by central bank purchases and ETF inflows [2] Industrial Metals Copper - LME copper closed at $10,947 per ton, up 2.19% week-on-week, while SHFE copper was at 87,700 CNY per ton, up 3.52% [2] - September copper concentrate imports in China were 2.587 million tons, down 6.2% month-on-month, indicating a tight supply situation [2] - The report expects copper prices to remain resilient due to supply constraints and stable demand from copper rod and wire cable manufacturers [2][3] Aluminum - LME aluminum closed at $2,856.5 per ton, up 3.25%, with domestic aluminum ingot inventory decreasing to 618,000 tons [3][8] - The report notes that domestic aluminum supply remains stable while overseas supply is tightening, supporting a strong price outlook [3] Tin - SHFE tin futures closed at 283,810 CNY per ton, reflecting a 1.1% increase. The report anticipates a recovery in demand driven by electronic consumption and AI applications [8] Strategic Metals Rare Earths - Prices for praseodymium and neodymium oxide were 501,500 CNY and 6.65 million CNY respectively, with slight declines noted. The report highlights the potential for price increases due to supply-side changes and growing domestic and international demand [9] - The report suggests that the upcoming whitelist system may drive a new round of price increases for rare earths [9] Cobalt - The average price for cobalt reached 406,600 CNY per ton, with tight supply conditions expected to persist, supporting a bullish outlook for cobalt prices [10]