正信期货指出，现货小幅累库，终端需求后续或将放缓，基本面后续或仍有转弱压力。短期，宏观预期 有所改善，关注反弹高度。 12月31日，国内期市能化板块涨跌不一。其中，玻璃期货主力合约开盘报1091.00元/吨，今日盘中高位 震荡运行；截至发稿，玻璃主力最高触及1098.00元，下方探低1080.00元，涨幅达1.49%附近。 目前来看，玻璃行情呈现震荡上行走势，盘面表现偏强。对于玻璃后市行情将如何运行，相关机构观点 汇总如下： 混沌天成期货表示，玻璃价格跌至历史较低位，行业利润较差，已经有部分产能确认退出，价格继续下 跌将会有更多厂家冷修，向下空间有限，2026年我们预期玻璃需求继续大幅下降，供需平衡的日熔量大 概在14.4万吨左右(仅供参考)，需要1万吨/天以上产能冷修才能实现供需再平衡，在悲观预期下，目前 行业利润挤压已经接近极致，不宜继续看空，需要等待产能出清，2026年政策继续反内卷，可能加速落 后产能淘汰，将利好远期。在产能出清过程中，多空可能会反复博弈。 银河期货分析称，短期玻璃供应下降给基本面提供支撑，期价或延续坚挺震荡趋势。后续随着春节临 近，下游停工放假仍将给需求及价格施压。目前总体玻璃仍然以 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 玻璃日报：短期震荡偏强 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 30 日 一、市场行情回顾 1，期货市场：玻璃主力低开高走，日内走强。120 分钟布林带走开口喇叭， 震荡偏强信号，短线关注 30 均线附近压力。成交量较昨日增 38.9 万手，持仓量 较昨日减 7280 手；日内最高 1090，最低 1046，收盘 1087，（较昨日结算价） 涨 34 元/吨，涨幅 3.23%。 2，现货市场：河北市场出货尚可，企业多存优惠，下游采购仍偏理性，交 投一般；华东市场窄幅整理，近日浙江两条产线放水，对当地价格有支撑，下游 多数散单为主，维持刚需采购；西北市场变化不大，现货成交氛围偏弱；西南市 场多数持稳，个别上调。 3，基差：华北现货价格 1000，基差-87 元/吨。 二、基本面数据 供应方面，截止 12 月 25 日，全国浮法玻璃日均产量为 15.45 万吨，比 18 日-0.39%。全国浮法玻璃产量 108.4 万吨，环比-0.17%，同比-3.06%。行业平均 开工率 73.89%，环比-0.1%；平均产能利用率 77.42%，环比-0.14%。上周广东一 条产线冷修，昨日一条玻璃产线（长兴 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - The report gives a short - term volatile rating for the glass industry [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The glass market is in a stage of inventory digestion. With supply contraction, inventory is being digested relatively quickly. However, due to the continuous weakness in demand, the price may maintain a volatile trend in the short term. Attention should be paid to the trend of the pressure near the 20 - day moving average. Also, continuous monitoring of macro - policy changes and production line cold - repair situations is necessary [4] Group 3: Market行情 Review Summary Futures Market - The glass futures main contract opened lower and fluctuated, closing with a doji star. The 120 - minute Bollinger Bands tightened, indicating a volatile trend. Short - term attention should be paid to the pressure near the upper Bollinger Band line. The trading volume decreased by 353,000 lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest increased by 1,877 lots. The intraday high was 1063, the low was 1045, and the closing price was 1051, up 6 yuan/ton or 0.57% from the previous day's settlement price [1] Spot Market - Over the weekend, prices in the Hebei market mostly dropped by 20 - 30 yuan/ton, with downstream buyers restocking at low prices and overall sales being acceptable. In the East China market, prices showed a mixed trend. Two production lines in Zhejiang shut down, causing some prices to rise, while in Shandong, under the impact of low - price supplies from North China, the price center loosened, and demand remained mainly for immediate needs. The northwest market remained stable, but with downstream enterprises gradually on holiday, the market had prices but no transactions [1] Basis - The spot price in North China was 1000, with a basis of - 51 yuan/ton [1] Group 4: Fundamental Data Summary Supply - As of December 25, the daily average output of national float glass was 154,500 tons, a decrease of 0.39% compared to the 18th. The national float glass output was 1.084 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.17% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.06%. The industry's average operating rate was 73.89%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%, and the average capacity utilization rate was 77.42%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.14%. A float glass production line in Guangdong with a designed capacity of 900 tons per day was shut down for cold - repair, reigniting expectations for production line cold - repair [2] Inventory - The total inventory of sample enterprises was 58.623 million weight boxes, a month - on - month increase of 65,000 weight boxes or 0.11%, and a year - on - year increase of 29.63%. The inventory days were 26.5 days, the same as the previous period [2] Demand - From January to November, the national real estate development investment was 785.91 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%. Among them, residential investment was 604.32 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.0%. The funds in place for real estate development enterprises from January to November were 851.45 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.9%. The average order days of the national deep - processing sample enterprises were 9.7 days, a month - on - month decrease of 4.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.6%. Deep - processing orders in the northern region continued to decline month - on - month, while there were little overall changes in the central and eastern regions. Orders in South China continued to increase moderately month - on - month, and in the southwest region, there were both increases and decreases, with the average order days showing a slight month - on - month decline. The scattered orders of the national deep - processing sample enterprises were still concentrated within 3 - 7 days, and the scheduling of some engineering orders was shortened to 15 - 20 days [2][3] Profit - As of December 25, according to Longzhong Information statistics, the profit from natural - gas - fired production was - 186.4 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 5 yuan/ton), the profit from petroleum - coke - fired production was - 7.2 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 7.14 yuan/ton), and the profit from coal - gas - fired production was - 21.88 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 14.26 yuan/ton) [3] Group 5: Main Logic Summary - Production lines using natural gas as fuel have long - term losses, and those using coal and petroleum coke are also in the red, which may accelerate the capacity clearance of some enterprises. The short - term market sentiment was boosted by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's mention of rectifying "involution - style" competition last week. However, real estate development investment and funds in place continued to decline year - on - year, with weak completion and new construction, and the real - estate demand continued to weaken. The increasing inventory pressure and weak enterprise orders put pressure on spot prices [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - **Aluminum**: The domestic operating capacity is at a high level while overseas construction projects are progressing slowly; demand is growing steadily, and the tight supply - demand situation supports prices. Industry profits are high, and low inventory is a key price support. High aluminum prices suppress downstream purchases, and concerns about macro - liquidity tightening lead to a high - level oscillation of the market [3]. - **Alumina**: The operating capacity of alumina is at a historical high, and new capacity is being gradually put into production. Demand growth has slowed down, weakening market sentiment. Current inventory is accumulating, but policies encouraging industrial mergers and reorganizations have sparked "capacity clearance" policy expectations, and the futures price has rebounded sharply. A short - term bottom for alumina may be gradually emerging [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Upstream Supply - **Bauxite**: The report shows the national and provincial monthly production seasonality, monthly import volume seasonality, and port inventory seasonality of Chinese bauxite [20][21]. - **Alumina**: It presents the monthly production seasonality of Chinese alumina, the monthly production of major production areas, national and provincial weekly operating rates, monthly import volume seasonality, and import profit and loss [23][25][29]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The report includes the monthly and weekly production seasonality of Chinese electrolytic aluminum, monthly net import seasonality, and spot import profit and loss, as well as the monthly production seasonality of global electrolytic aluminum [32][33][34]. 3.2 Downstream Demand - **Product Output**: It details the weekly and monthly output seasonality of various aluminum products such as aluminum ingots, aluminum rods, aluminum profiles, aluminum plates, aluminum foils, and primary aluminum alloy ingots [36][39]. - **Operating Rates**: The report shows the weekly and monthly operating rates seasonality of different aluminum product industries, including aluminum profiles, aluminum strips, aluminum foils, aluminum cables, and primary aluminum alloys [40][49]. - **Exports**: It provides the monthly export volume seasonality of unforged aluminum and aluminum products and the export profit of Chinese aluminum products [51][53]. - **Related Industries**: It presents the data related to industries consuming aluminum, such as the cumulative year - on - year of housing start - up and completion areas and fixed - asset investment, the monthly output seasonality of automobiles and new - energy vehicles, the monthly investment completion amount of power grid projects, and the monthly new - installed capacity of photovoltaics [57][59][62]. 3.3 Inventory - **Bauxite**: It shows the monthly inventory seasonality of Chinese bauxite in the whole country and in specific provinces like Guangxi, Henan, and Shanxi [66][67]. - **Alumina**: It includes the factory - level inventory seasonality of alumina enterprises, the number of inventory days, and the SHFE alumina warehouse receipt total seasonality [68][69]. - **Aluminum**: It shows the LME aluminum inventory seasonality, SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt quantity seasonality, Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory seasonality, inventory days seasonality, aluminum rod and aluminum ingot + aluminum rod spot inventory seasonality [69][70][72]. 3.4 Cost and Profit - **Raw Materials**: It presents the prices of domestic and imported bauxite, 32% ion - exchange membrane caustic soda, pre - baked anodes, power coal, Dutch natural gas TTF, and European electricity prices [74][75][76]. - **Production**: It shows the cost of alumina and the cost - profit situation of Chinese electrolytic aluminum [74][76].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term investment rating for the glass industry is "short - term volatility" [1] Core Viewpoint - The short - term price of glass may maintain a volatile trend, and pay attention to the pressure near the upper Bollinger Band in the short term. Future focus should be on macro - policy changes and production line cold - repair situations [4] Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - **Futures Market**: The glass main contract opened low and moved high, showing strength during the day. The 120 - minute Bollinger Band tightened, indicating a volatile signal. The trading volume increased by 615,000 lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest increased by 9,426 lots. The intraday high was 1,066, the low was 1,026, and the closing price was 1,057, up 7 yuan/ton or 0.67% from the previous day's settlement price [1] - **Spot Market**: In the North China market, transactions were flexible with narrow price fluctuations, and some small - plate prices declined. In the Central and East China markets, there were few changes, and enterprises mainly sold at stable prices. In the Northwest market, trading was light, and some processing plants had sporadic holidays, restricting production and sales. In the Southwest market, prices were temporarily stable, and some enterprises planned to raise prices [1] - **Basis**: The spot price in North China was 1,010, with a basis of - 47 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of December 25, the daily average output of national float glass was 154,500 tons, a decrease of 0.39% compared to the 18th. The national float glass output was 1.084 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.17% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.06%. The industry's average operating rate was 73.89%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%; the average capacity utilization rate was 77.42%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.14%. A float glass production line in Guangdong with a designed capacity of 900 tons per day was shut down for cold - repair, reigniting the expectation of production line cold - repair [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of sample enterprises was 58.623 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month increase of 65,000 heavy boxes or 0.11%, and a year - on - year increase of 29.63%. The inventory days were 26.5 days, the same as the previous period [2] - **Demand**: From January to November, the national real estate development investment was 785.91 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%; residential investment was 604.32 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.0%. From January to November, the funds in place for real estate development enterprises were 851.45 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.9%. The average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.7 days, a month - on - month decrease of 4.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.6%. Orders in the northern region continued to decline month - on - month, there were few changes in the central and eastern regions, orders in South China increased moderately month - on - month, and there were both increases and decreases in the Southwest region, with the average order days decreasing slightly month - on - month [2] - **Profit**: As of December 25, the profit from natural - gas - based production was - 186.4 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 5 yuan/ton), the profit from petroleum - coke - based production was - 7.2 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 7.14 yuan/ton), and the profit from coal - gas - based production was - 21.88 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 14.26 yuan/ton) [3] Main Logic Summary - Supply - side production lines using natural gas as fuel have long - term losses, and those using coal and petroleum coke are also in a loss state, which may accelerate the elimination of some enterprises' production capacity. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's mention of rectifying "involution - style" competition has boosted short - term market sentiment. However, real estate development investment and funds in place continue to decline year - on - year, with weak completion and new construction, and real - estate demand continues to weaken. The increasing inventory pressure and weak enterprise order volume put pressure on spot prices. Overall, short - term prices may maintain a volatile trend [4]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年12月26日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 供给端来看，上周工业硅供应量为8.8万吨，环比持平。 需求端来看，上周工业硅需求为8.1万吨，环比增长8.00%.需求有所抬升. 多晶硅库存为30.3万吨，处于高位，硅片亏损，电池片亏损，组件盈利； 有机硅库存为43900吨，处于低位，有机硅生产利润为1384元/吨，处于盈 利状态，其综合开工率为69.79%，环比持平，低于历史同期平均水平；铝 合金锭库存为7.23万吨，处于高位，进口利润为228元/吨，A356铝送至无 锡运费和利润为588.67元/吨，再生铝开工率为59.8%，环比持平，处于高 位。 成本端来看，新疆地区样本通氧553生产 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided text does not contain information about the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - In 2026, the commodity market will enter a period of high volatility and deep differentiation driven by macro - logic. Each commodity sector faces unique risks, including macro - policy changes, geopolitical issues, supply - demand imbalances, and policy uncertainties [167]. - The long - term bullish logic for gold remains intact, but in 2026, there are risks of short - term corrections due to factors such as "twin - peak inflation", delayed Fed rate cuts, and high risk premiums [16]. - Non - ferrous metals may see their price centers rise, but they are exposed to risks from macro - policy fluctuations, trade protectionism, and supply - demand mismatches [46]. - Black commodities will continue to face challenges of weak demand and oversupply, with the risk of a negative feedback loop [79]. - Energy and chemical products will struggle to re - balance due to long - term geopolitical risks, overcapacity, and weak demand [108]. - Agricultural products are in an era of increased production but face uncertainties in demand, policy interventions, and inventory and supply chain risks [138]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals: Risks in Safe - Haven Assets - **"Twin - Peak Inflation" and Monetary Policy**: Trump's tariff policies may lead to supply - side "twin - peak inflation". If inflation rebounds, the Fed may adopt a "Higher for Longer" policy, suppressing precious metal prices [17]. - **Fiscal Policy and Asset Rotation**: Fiscal expansion may trigger economic recovery expectations, leading to asset rotation from safe - haven assets to risk assets. The short - term economic boost from fiscal policies may reduce the attractiveness of gold [29]. - **Central Bank Buying and Investment Demand**: Central banks buy gold to hedge against dollar depreciation, but some may slow down or sell gold due to high prices. The shift from central bank buying to Western ETF investment funds increases market vulnerability [33][35]. - **International Political Risks**: Geopolitical risks are already priced into gold. If tensions ease, the risk premium may disappear. Trade frictions may also cause price fluctuations [41]. - **High Beta Trap in Silver**: Silver's price is more volatile than gold. If the manufacturing recovery is weak or gold prices fall, silver prices may decline more sharply [42]. 3.2 Non - Ferrous Metals: Macro - Policy and Supply - Demand Structural Contradictions - **Macro - Environment and Price Volatility**: Uncertainty in Fed monetary policy and dollar index fluctuations can directly impact non - ferrous metal prices. US trade protectionism may reshape trade flows and cause regional supply - demand imbalances [47][48]. - **Supply - Side Risks**: Supply shortages in copper mines, structural problems in aluminum mines, and slow capacity clearance in new energy metals are major risks. Resource nationalism also increases costs and supply chain risks [52][54][56]. - **Demand - Side Challenges**: Traditional demand from real estate and home appliances is weak, while emerging demand from new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, and AI may not meet expectations, leading to insufficient demand [60][64][70]. - **Inventory and Capital Risks**: Inventory mismatches and financial risks in the capital market can amplify price fluctuations. Low - inventory environments may lead to forced - liquidation events, and large - scale capital inflows and outflows can cause price bubbles and sharp corrections [74][76]. 3.3 Black Commodities: Pains in the Post - Real Estate Era - **Demand - Side Risks**: The real estate market remains a major drag on demand, while manufacturing demand may slow down, and the sustainability of steel exports is uncertain. Over - interpretation of demand resilience may lead to supply - demand imbalances [80][83][85]. - **Supply - Side Risks**: Global iron ore supply will shift from tight balance to oversupply in 2026. Double - coking coal and alloys also face supply - side pressures [89][96]. - **Policy and Macro - Level Risks**: The implementation of the "anti - involution" policy is uncertain, and fiscal and monetary policies may have a diminishing marginal effect. International rules such as CBAM and US trade policies also pose risks [98][99][101]. - **Profit Distribution and Negative Feedback**: The profit distribution in the industrial chain is distorted, and a negative feedback loop may occur, leading to a systemic price collapse [102][105]. 3.4 Energy and Chemical Products: Difficult Re - balance in a Geopolitically Fragmented World - **Geopolitical Risks**: Crude oil geopolitical risks are long - term and fragmented, leading to trade flow restructuring and cost increases. OPEC+ faces challenges in maintaining production cuts, and non - OPEC+ countries have limited capacity for production increases [109][113]. - **Demand - Side Constraints**: The logic of oil consumption has changed, and global economic factors such as trade frictions and high - interest rates limit energy demand. Shipping and logistics risks also affect energy costs and trade flows [119][125]. - **Inventory Risks**: Crude oil and chemical product inventories are expected to increase, suppressing prices and weakening the impact of geopolitical premiums. High - inventory situations in chemicals will become normal [132][135]. - **Policy Execution Risks**: The implementation of the "anti - involution" policy is uncertain, and without effective measures, capacity clearance in the chemical industry will be difficult [137]. 3.5 Agricultural Products: Increased Production Meets Uncertain Demand - **Supply - Side Risks**: Major agricultural products are expected to increase in production, leading to a global supply surplus. The soybean market is highly dependent on Brazil, and any local disruptions may have a global impact [138][139]. - **Demand - Side Risks**: Food, feed, and industrial demand for agricultural products are all weakening. Policy uncertainties in bio - fuels also affect industrial demand [143][144]. - **Policy Intervention Risks**: Sino - US trade relations and bio - diesel policies are major variables that can significantly impact the agricultural market [151][156]. - **Inventory and Supply Chain Risks**: High inventories of US corn and soybeans suppress prices, and supply chain risks from logistics and geopolitical factors can cause price fluctuations [164]. 3.6 Summary and Response - In 2026, commodity risk management should be more forward - looking, structural, and flexible, upgrading from price risk management to volatility management and risk - return structure optimization [167]. - For precious metals, maintain long - term bullish positions but use dynamic stop - profit mechanisms and options to manage risks [168]. - For non - ferrous metals, refine futures hedging and use options to protect against extreme risks [169]. - For black commodities, shift from hedging absolute prices to managing profits and use options to manage costs and risks [170]. - For energy and chemical products, use futures to manage geopolitical risks and options to manage volatility. Take advantage of price rebounds to lock in processing fees [171]. - For agricultural products, use futures for selling hedging and options to manage price fluctuations and input costs [172].

Group 1 - As of December 25, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 1.4385 million tons, a decrease of 61,900 tons from the previous week, representing a decline of 4.13% [1] - Light soda ash inventory is 735,500 tons, an increase of 6,300 tons week-on-week, while heavy soda ash inventory is 703,000 tons, a decrease of 68,200 tons [1] - On December 25, the price of light soda ash from Jiangsu Kunshan Jinggang decreased to 1,350-1,370 RMB/ton, while Jiangsu Jingshen Chemical's light soda ash price remained stable at 1,300 RMB/ton [1] Group 2 - According to Caixin Futures, the demand for heavy soda ash is negatively impacted by the decline in float glass production, with the annual demand growth expected to be slightly negative [3] - Light soda ash demand is anticipated to continue growing due to the expansion of lithium carbonate production capacity and improved exports, although the large base of soda ash production capacity will pressure cost lines [3] - Zhengxin Futures indicates that short-term commodity sentiment is decent, but fundamental changes in soda ash remain limited, with a mid-term trend expected to maintain a bearish outlook amid a supply surplus [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term prices of both glass and soda ash may fluctuate. For glass, although there are short - term supports from macro - sentiment and coal price rebound, its upward driving force is insufficient. For soda ash, despite short - term support from continuous losses, slight de - stocking, and coal price rebound, the overall supply is still in surplus and the demand is expected to weaken [3][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Glass - **Spot Market**: In the North China market, transactions are relatively flexible with prices weakly operating; in the East China market, enterprises purchase cautiously and some manufacturers' quotes are loose; in the Central China market, overall transactions are weak with a few prices falling; in the South China region, shipments are okay and most are on the sidelines. The market is generally not optimistic about year - end demand, and purchases are mainly for rigid needs [1] - **Supply**: As of December 18, the daily average output of national float glass was 155,000 tons, with a weekly output of 1.0849 million tons, unchanged from the previous week and a year - on - year decrease of 3.24%. The industry average operating rate was 73.99%, a 0.14% week - on - week increase; the average capacity utilization rate was 77.48%, unchanged from the previous week. A float glass production line in Guangdong with a designed capacity of 900 tons per day was shut down for cold repair, reigniting the expectation of production line cold repair [1] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of sample enterprises was 58.558 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week increase of 331,000 heavy boxes, a 0.57% increase, and a year - on - year increase of 25.73%. The inventory days were 26.5 days, an increase of 0.2 days from the previous period [1] - **Demand**: From January to November, the national real estate development investment was 7859.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%; residential investment was 6043.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.0%. The funds in place of real estate development enterprises were 8514.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.9%. The average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises were 9.7 days, a 4.2% week - on - week decrease and a 22.6% year - on - year decrease [2] - **Profit**: As of December 18, the profit of natural - gas - fired production lines was - 181.4 yuan/ton (a week - on - week increase of 15.02 yuan/ton), the profit of petroleum - coke - fired production lines was - 0.07 yuan/ton (a week - on - week decrease of 35.71 yuan/ton), and the profit of coal - gas - fired production lines was - 7.63 yuan/ton (a week - on - week decrease of 14.14 yuan/ton) [2] Soda Ash - **Spot Market**: The spot market of soda ash fluctuates, with the trading center moving down. Enterprise devices fluctuate slightly, and the output of individual enterprises increases. Near the end of the month, downstream enterprises have poor purchasing sentiment, mostly on the sidelines, maintaining just - in - time procurement at low prices [4] - **Supply**: Last week, the soda ash output was 721,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14,000 tons, a decline of 1.91%. The output of light soda ash was 331,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 65,000 tons; the output of heavy soda ash was 390,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 75,000 tons. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 82.74%, down 1.61% from the previous week. The overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual production capacity of one million tons or more was 87.49%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.33%. Although the new capacity of Alxa Phase II was put into production recently, the overall industry operating rate has been adjusted down, and the short - term supply pressure has been slightly relieved [4] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of domestic manufacturers was 1.5004 million tons, an increase of 1,100 tons from last Thursday, an increase of 0.07%. Among them, the light soda ash inventory was 729,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,600 tons, and the heavy soda ash inventory was 771,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 500 tons [4] - **Demand**: The downstream demand for soda ash is average, mainly consuming inventory and purchasing at low prices. Light soda ash is relatively stable, while the overall situation of heavy soda ash downstream is weak. In the short term, the production capacity of float glass and photovoltaic glass is stable, and the overall rigid demand fluctuates little. However, there is still an expectation of glass cold repair at the end of the month, and the rigid demand for heavy soda ash may weaken [4] - **Profit**: As of December 18, the theoretical profit (per two tons) of the combined - soda process was - 41 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 16.33%. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 66.7 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.33%. During the week, the price of raw - material rock salt remained stable, and the price of thermal coal continued to decline, weakening the cost support [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Guangxi Futures Exchange has implemented multiple risk control measures for platinum, palladium, lithium carbonate, and polysilicon futures to strengthen market risk management amid significant price volatility [2][3]. Group 1: Risk Control Measures - Effective December 25, 2025, trading fees for platinum futures (PT2606) and palladium futures (PD2606) will be adjusted to 0.025% of the transaction amount, while lithium carbonate futures (LC2605) will have a trading fee of 0.032% [3]. - The daily price fluctuation limit for platinum and palladium futures will be set at 10%, with a trading margin requirement of 12% [3]. - For polysilicon futures, the daily opening position limit for non-futures company members or clients will be restricted to 200 lots starting December 25, 2025 [5]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Trends - As of December 23, 2023, platinum futures closed at a limit-up of 10%, reaching 619.95 yuan per gram, while palladium futures rose by 5.52% to 532.55 yuan per gram, and lithium carbonate surged by 5.67% to 120,360 yuan per ton [4]. - The trading sentiment in the polysilicon market has cooled, with the main contract closing down 0.91% at 59,225 yuan per ton, and trading volume and open interest declining for three consecutive days [7]. - The polysilicon spot price has rebounded from a low of approximately 35 yuan per kilogram earlier in the year to over 50 yuan per kilogram, reflecting the market's response to policy expectations and trading mechanisms [8].