Group 1: Economic Resilience - The report from Nomura Securities predicting a "cliff-like decline" in China's economy in the second half of the year is considered alarmist and underestimates the resilience of the Chinese economy and the positive effects of policies [1] - Consumer spending has shown strong growth in the first half of the year, with improvements in consumption and dining revenues, indicating robust consumer resilience [2] - The "old-for-new" policy is expected to support consumption, as previous implementations did not lead to significant declines in consumer spending [2] Group 2: Policy Support - The Chinese government has implemented a long-term mechanism to boost consumption through measures aimed at increasing employment, income, and reducing living costs [2] - The recent Central Financial Committee meeting emphasized the orderly exit of outdated production capacity, which is seen as a necessary step for long-term healthy development in sectors like new energy [3] - The impact of tariffs on exports has been overstated, as China's export performance has remained strong despite previous trade tensions, showcasing the competitiveness of Chinese products [4] Group 3: Positive Policy Stance - The current policy stance is characterized by proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies aimed at stabilizing growth [5] - The government has a diverse toolbox for economic stabilization, including infrastructure investment, social security spending, tax reductions, and structural adjustments [6] - While there may be marginal pressures on the economy in the second half, these do not alter the long-term positive trend, and the notion of a "cliff-like decline" is unfounded [6]

Core Conclusions - The current anti-involution logic differs from supply-side reforms, focusing more on cost investigation and price monitoring to address low-price disorderly competition among enterprises [1] - The report discusses the potential for fundamental improvement in various industries based on three aspects: the degree of "involution," the degree of capacity clearance, and the elasticity of capacity clearance [1][3] - Two categories of benefiting directions are identified: the first category involves industries at the bottom of the cycle with a pressing need for anti-involution, such as photovoltaic equipment and general equipment; the second category includes industries with improved involution levels and high visibility in performance, such as home appliances and chemical raw materials [1][3][28] Industry Analysis - The report identifies three stages of the anti-involution market: the first stage involves expectations catalyzed by pricing policies, the second stage sees price increases in resource products, and the third stage involves high prices stabilizing [2][8] - Industries frequently mentioned in the current anti-involution discussion include photovoltaic, new energy vehicles, energy storage systems, and e-commerce platforms [2][8] - The report uses CAPEX, gross margin, and inventory historical percentiles to measure the degree of "involution" across various industries, revealing that upstream cyclical resource industries like non-ferrous metals and chemicals still exhibit high levels of involution [3][9] Benefiting Directions - The first category of benefiting industries is characterized by a pressing demand for anti-involution, being at the cycle bottom with initial signs of capacity clearance and good elasticity, including photovoltaic equipment and general equipment [21][28] - The second category includes industries that have already seen some improvement in involution levels and have high visibility in performance, such as home appliances and chemical raw materials [28][29] - The report emphasizes that the degree of industry concentration and the proportion of state-owned enterprises can influence the speed and elasticity of supply-side clearance, with higher concentration levels leading to quicker responses to policy changes [20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating Most of the industries in the report are rated as "oscillating", with the exception of the log industry which is rated as "oscillating weakly", and the sugar industry which is expected to "oscillate weakly" in the long - term and "oscillate" in the short - term [7][8][9][10][12][14][16][17][18]. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes multiple agricultural and related industries, finding that most industries are currently in an oscillating state. Some industries face supply - demand imbalances, such as the oversupply in the hog industry; others are affected by factors like weather, policies, and trade relations, such as the possible weather - related speculation in natural rubber and the impact of trade agreements on protein meal [1][7][8]. 3. Summary by Variety 3.1 Oils and Fats - **View**: Oscillating and differentiating, with soybean and rapeseed oils oscillating strongly yesterday. - **Logic**: Good growth of US soybeans, a decrease in US soybean oil inventory, an increase in the expected demand for soybean oil in biodiesel, and the Brazilian biodiesel blending ratio increase. However, there is also pressure from the increase in palm oil production and the high inventory of domestic rapeseed oil [7]. 3.2 Protein Meal - **View**: Due to the signing of the Sino - Australian trade memorandum of understanding, the double - meal oscillated and slightly declined. - **Logic**: Abroad, the growth of US soybeans is smooth, but the export prospects are worrying; Brazil's exports are still high. Domestically, the signing of the Sino - Australian memorandum implies new Australian seed imports, with supply pressure leading to weak spot prices, but concerns about Sino - US trade support the futures prices. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term and be strong in the long - term [8]. 3.3 Corn/Starch - **View**: Spot transactions are light, and futures and spot prices oscillate weakly. - **Logic**: Futures prices rebounded slightly during the day and then fell back. On the spot side, supply at ports and deep - processing plants decreased, and there were price adjustments at some deep - processing plants. Deep - processing production and consumption data changed slightly, and there is a risk of supply shortage before the new grain is listed in large quantities [9][10]. 3.4 Hogs - **View**: Upstream slaughtering puts pressure on hog prices. - **Logic**: In the short - term, large hogs are being slaughtered at an accelerated pace, but the average weight has bottomed out and rebounded, and farmers are still reluctant to sell standard hogs. In the medium - term, the number of new - born piglets has been increasing, and there is room for an increase in hog slaughter in the second half of the year. In the long - term, the current production capacity is still high. The demand for pork has increased week - on - week, and the weight - reduction trend is blocked. In the short - term, the market has positive sentiment, but in the medium - and long - term, there is supply pressure in the third quarter [1][10]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: There may be weather - related speculation, but the expected increase is limited. - **Logic**: The rubber price rose rapidly at the end of trading yesterday, possibly due to weather - related speculation about a typhoon landing in Hainan Island or external capital. The trading logic follows the macro - sentiment, and the fundamentals are currently stable. The supply is affected by the rainy season, and the demand is relatively stable [12][13]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The futures price rebounded after a decline. - **Logic**: The futures price followed the commodity adjustment and then rebounded due to the impact of natural rubber. The upward driving force is not obvious, but there is support from the macro - environment and the improvement in butadiene trading. It is expected to oscillate within a range [14]. 3.7 Cotton - **View**: Cotton prices increased with increased positions, breaking through the 14,000 - yuan mark. - **Logic**: In the medium - and long - term, the cotton market is loose, and the new cotton in Xinjiang is expected to increase in production. The demand is in the off - season, but the current commercial inventory is low. Yesterday, the futures price increased with increased positions, but there are multiple factors restricting further increases, and there is a risk of decline when new cotton is listed in large quantities [14]. 3.8 Sugar - **View**: Sugar prices fluctuated within a narrow range. - **Logic**: In the medium - and long - term, sugar prices are under downward pressure due to the expected supply surplus in the 25/26 sugar - making season. In the short - term, the decline in Brazilian sugar production and high domestic sales rates support sugar prices, but the increase in Brazilian production and exports and domestic imports will increase supply pressure [16]. 3.9 Pulp - **View**: The trend is dominated by the macro - environment, with a stalemate - type fluctuation. - **Logic**: The futures price fluctuated horizontally, and the supply - demand relationship is in a stalemate. The upward driving force comes from the macro - environment, but there is pressure at 5200 - 5300 yuan. In the short - term, there is a slight rebound space, and in the medium - term, there may be a phased increase, but the height is limited [17]. 3.10 Logs - **View**: There are few fundamental contradictions, and the short - term futures price oscillates. - **Logic**: Spot prices are weak due to the impact of delivery products, and the cost of importers has increased. Although it is the off - season, the overall demand is stable, and the market is in the bottom - building stage. There is no clear driving force for upward or downward movement in the short - term [18][19].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the **polysilicon industry**, focusing on the price trends and market dynamics of polysilicon futures and its raw materials [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Price Decline of Polysilicon Futures**: - Polysilicon futures prices have significantly dropped, with some contracts falling below 33,000 yuan per ton, reaching new lows [1]. - The decline is attributed to a lack of substantial changes in the fundamentals, with expectations of increased inventory if production cuts do not occur [1][2]. 2. **Weak Demand and Downstream Price Drops**: - Overall demand for polysilicon is weakening, and downstream prices are also decreasing, leading to a situation where futures prices have fallen more than spot prices [3]. - The anticipated decline in demand post-installation in May and June has contributed to bearish sentiment in the market [1][3]. 3. **Cost Structure and Price Recovery Potential**: - If the prices of industrial raw materials and electricity continue to decline, it could lead to further reductions in production costs, allowing for potential price recovery in polysilicon [2]. - The market is observing a shift from a backwardation structure to a contango structure, indicating a potential for price recovery [5][10]. 4. **Inventory Management and Production Cuts**: - There are expectations of supply-side contractions, with companies considering production cuts to stabilize prices [4][12]. - The overall inventory in the polysilicon industry is expected to decrease slightly, despite weak demand [3][10]. 5. **Market Sentiment and Future Outlook**: - The market sentiment remains cautious, with many companies struggling to maintain cash flow amidst falling prices [13]. - There are discussions among leading companies about forming a special fund to consolidate production capacities, which could influence future supply dynamics [14][15]. 6. **Arbitrage Opportunities**: - Currently, there are limited arbitrage opportunities, but the narrowing gap between spot and futures prices suggests potential for future trading strategies [8][9]. 7. **Profit Margins and Cost Pressures**: - The profit margins for polysilicon producers are under pressure due to declining raw material costs and market prices, leading to concerns about sustainability [16]. - Companies are faced with the dilemma of whether to cut production to maintain prices or to continue production at lower prices [12]. Other Important Insights - The average price of N-type auxiliary materials has decreased by 1.53% compared to the previous period, indicating broader market trends affecting production costs [7]. - The overall production levels in the polysilicon industry remain low, not reaching the highs seen in previous years, which reflects ongoing challenges in the market [10][11]. - The potential for a market-driven clearing process raises concerns about prices falling below cash production costs for many companies, with only a few major players remaining profitable [13]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call records, highlighting the current state and future outlook of the polysilicon industry.

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry continues to face significant losses despite some companies showing signs of reduced losses in the second quarter of 2025, indicating a challenging market environment driven by oversupply and price competition [1][3]. Group 1: Industry Performance - As of July 15, 2025, all major photovoltaic companies listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges have disclosed their half-year performance forecasts, revealing a persistent trend of losses across the sector [1]. - Major companies like Tongwei Co., Ltd. and TCL Zhonghuan are expected to report substantial losses in the range of 49 to 52 billion yuan and 40 to 45 billion yuan, respectively, compared to previous losses of 31.29 billion yuan and 30.64 billion yuan [3][4]. - The decline in product prices across the photovoltaic supply chain has been a common factor contributing to the losses, with many companies unable to escape the trend of increasing sales volume without corresponding revenue growth [3][4]. Group 2: Reasons for Losses - The ongoing supply-demand imbalance in the photovoltaic industry has not significantly improved, leading to continued low prices for products despite a temporary surge in demand in the distributed market [4]. - Companies like JinkoSolar have noted that intensified competition and international trade protection policies have negatively impacted their sales prices and profitability, contributing to their losses [4][5]. Group 3: Second Quarter Performance Divergence - A noticeable divergence in performance among leading photovoltaic companies was observed in the second quarter, reflecting differences in strategic execution and cost management [5]. - TCL Zhonghuan's losses are expected to widen in the second quarter, while companies like Longi Green Energy and JinkoSolar have managed to reduce their losses compared to the first quarter [5][6]. - Aiko Solar's improved performance in the second quarter is attributed to increased sales in overseas markets, leading to a better overall gross margin [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The photovoltaic industry is anticipated to enter the final phase of its current downturn, with expectations of a market rebound in the third or fourth quarter of 2025 due to ongoing efforts to address supply-demand imbalances [7]. - Companies are focusing on long-term development strategies to promote sustainable growth in the photovoltaic sector, despite facing significant short-term challenges [7].

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing significant losses due to supply-demand imbalances and declining prices across the industry chain, although some companies have shown signs of reduced losses or profitability in the second quarter [1][2][3]. Industry Overview - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and industry associations have held multiple meetings to address overcapacity and chaotic competition in the photovoltaic sector, aiming to enhance product quality and facilitate the orderly exit of outdated capacity [2]. - Despite a temporary surge in demand in the distributed market, the overall industry continues to face substantial losses, with leading companies reporting increased losses compared to the previous year [2][3]. Company Performance - Major companies like Tongwei Co., Ltd. and TCL Zhonghuan are forecasting significant losses for the first half of the year, with Tongwei expecting a net loss of 4.9 billion to 5.2 billion yuan, and TCL Zhonghuan anticipating a loss of 4 billion to 4.5 billion yuan [2]. - JA Solar Technology is also projecting a net loss of 2.5 billion to 3 billion yuan, a substantial increase from the previous year's loss of 874 million yuan [2]. Second Quarter Performance - The second quarter has shown a divergence in performance among leading photovoltaic companies, reflecting differences in strategic execution and cost control measures [3][4]. - TCL Zhonghuan expects a second-quarter loss of 2.094 billion to 2.594 billion yuan, while Tongwei's loss is projected to be between 2.307 billion and 2.607 billion yuan, remaining stable compared to the first quarter [4]. Factors Influencing Performance - Longi Green Energy and JA Solar have reported reduced losses in the second quarter, with JA Solar's expected loss decreasing to between 862 million and 1.362 billion yuan from 1.638 billion yuan in the first quarter [4]. - Longi Green Energy attributes its performance improvement to enhanced internal management and a reduction in costs and expenses [5]. Market Dynamics - Aiko Solar's improved performance in the second quarter is primarily due to increased sales in overseas markets, with a focus on Europe, Australia, and Japan, leading to a better overall gross margin [6]. - The photovoltaic industry is anticipated to enter a recovery phase by the third or fourth quarter of the year, driven by measures from regulatory bodies and companies to achieve balance in the market [6].

Summary of China Shengmu's Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: China Shengmu - **Industry**: Organic Dairy Farming - **Market Position**: One of the largest suppliers of desert organic raw milk in China, holding approximately 35%-40% market share alongside Yili's YouRan Dairy [2][4]. Strategic Transformation - **Focus Shift**: Transitioned from a full-chain dairy product company to specializing in upstream cattle farming, selling downstream operations to Mengniu in 2019 [4]. - **Current Strategy**: Concentration on desert organic raw milk production, maintaining a stable customer base with 85% of raw milk sales to Mengniu [2][6]. Financial Performance - **Profitability Amid Price Decline**: Despite a downward trend in milk prices since 2021, China Shengmu has maintained a price premium of approximately 30% for organic raw milk compared to regular raw milk, helping sustain profit margins [5]. - **Cost Control**: Average selling price of raw milk in 2024 is projected at 4.4 RMB per kg, exceeding the industry average by about 1 RMB, with total costs controlled at around 3.31 RMB per kg [10]. - **Debt and Expense Ratios**: The company has a debt ratio of about 50% and a low expense ratio of less than 0.4 RMB per kg, indicating a solid financial position [8]. Cattle Management - **Herd Composition**: As of 2024, the company has approximately 157,000 cattle, with 147,000 being dairy cows. The proportion of breeding cows is about 42%, which is lower than the industry average, allowing for potential growth when milk prices recover [7]. - **Valuation of Cattle**: The average valuation per cow is less than 20,000 RMB, not fully reflecting the organic certification value, indicating significant asset appreciation potential in a market upturn [9]. Market Dynamics - **Beef Price Impact**: Rising beef prices positively affect profits through increased cash recovery from culling cows and direct profitability from beef operations. The price of culled cows has risen from under 500 RMB to approximately 1,000-1,200 RMB per head [14]. - **Culling Strategy**: The company plans to maintain a culling rate of about 70,000 dairy cows annually, with a focus on retaining more heifers to enhance future production capacity [41]. Industry Challenges - **Current Market Conditions**: The dairy industry is facing cash flow challenges due to low milk prices and high operational costs, leading to widespread losses among farms [12][13]. - **Future Price Outlook**: It is unlikely that milk prices will return to the highs of 2021 due to weaker demand and structural changes in the industry [32][33]. Future Prospects - **Production Growth**: The company anticipates a modest annual growth of 5%-7% in herd size under current market conditions, with no significant expansion plans due to market uncertainties [40]. - **Investment in Genetics**: Recent imports of high-quality dairy cattle are expected to improve herd quality and production efficiency in the long term [38]. Additional Insights - **Cash Flow Assessment**: The evaluation of cash flow is primarily based on free cash flow, which includes regular milk sales and capital expenditures related to raising calves [20][21]. - **Market Recovery Potential**: The company remains cautiously optimistic about future profitability, contingent on market recovery and improved demand dynamics [40]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the strategic direction, financial health, market dynamics, and future outlook of China Shengmu in the organic dairy industry.

Report Summary Overall Market Performance - As of July 11, 2025, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performances. Coking coal rose over 3%, coke and glass rose over 2%, while aluminum oxide fell over 2%. Regarding stock index futures, CSI 1000 Index Futures (IM) rose 1.25%. In terms of capital flow, CSI 1000 2509 had an inflow of 4.43 billion, while Shanghai Gold 2510 had an outflow of 435 million [7]. Industry - Specific Analysis Coking Coal - The price of coking coal opened high and strengthened during the day. The mainstream price in the Shanxi market was 970 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Due to the closure of the Sino - Mongolian border during Mongolia's National Naadam Festival and the impact of supply - side reforms, the supply pressure eased. Coke enterprises proposed a price increase, and the short - term market remained strong [3]. Crude Oil - The easing of Middle East geopolitical risks reduced concerns about supply disruptions. OPEC + agreed to increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations. OPEC also lowered its global oil demand forecast for the next four years. The market was expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to the development of the Middle East situation and the outcome of trade negotiations [4][5]. Copper - Copper opened high and weakened during the day. Trump announced a 50% tariff on copper starting from August 1. Supply was expected to improve, and demand was expected to enter the off - season. The market was bearish in the short term, and prices were expected to be volatile [9]. Carbonate Lithium - Carbonate lithium opened high and closed down after fluctuations. The spot price continued to rise, but the market deviated from the fundamental logic. Supply was abundant, and the market was mainly affected by news and macro - sentiment. The price was expected to be high and volatile, and there was a risk of a sharp decline [10][11]. Asphalt - The asphalt production rate increased, while the downstream construction rate mostly decreased. The inventory was at a low level. With the approaching peak season and the narrowing of the price range of crude oil, it was recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread at low prices [12]. PP (Polypropylene) - The downstream开工率 of PP decreased, and the production rate of enterprises increased. The market was affected by tariffs and the expected slowdown of global oil demand. Supply pressure was relieved to some extent, but demand recovery was slow. The price was expected to fluctuate at a low level [14]. Plastic - The production rate of plastic increased, while the downstream开工率 decreased. The market was affected by tariffs and the situation of global oil demand. Although the cost might decrease, demand recovery was slow, and the price was expected to fluctuate at a low level [15]. PVC - The PVC production rate decreased, and the downstream开工率 was low. Export was restricted, and inventory was high. The market was affected by the real - estate situation and new production capacity. The price was expected to fluctuate at a low level [18]. Soybean Oil - The price of soybean oil showed a high - opening and volatile trend, approaching the 8000 - yuan/ton pressure level. Supply was abundant, and demand increased recently. The price was expected to be volatile and strong, but the upside was limited [19]. Soybean Meal - The price of soybean meal rose. Supply was under pressure due to high domestic oil - mill operating rates, and demand improved slightly. The price was affected by factors such as US soybean production, trade policies, and livestock farming. It was necessary to pay attention to relevant factors [21]. Rebar - Rebar showed a strong - oscillating trend. Supply and demand were both weak, with production decreasing and demand in the seasonal off - season. Inventory was still high, but cost support was strong. The price was expected to remain strong in the short term [23]. Hot Rolled Coil - Hot rolled coil showed a strong - oscillating trend with "high - rising and falling back". Supply and demand both decreased, and inventory increased slightly. The market was affected by policies and raw - material prices. The price was expected to remain strong in the short term [24][25]. Urea - The urea price closed down after fluctuations. Production was stable, and demand was weak in the industrial sector but had local increases in the agricultural sector. Inventory decreased continuously. The price was expected to be volatile and strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to export policies [26].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the significant growth and investment interest in the photovoltaic ETF (159857), which has seen a net subscription of 73 million shares, leading the category in the Shenzhen market [3] - The photovoltaic ETF (159857) has reached a new high in scale at 2.324 billion yuan, with a notable increase of 79.7 million shares over the past six months [3] - In the last ten trading days, the photovoltaic ETF (159857) has attracted a total of 23.45 million yuan in inflows, indicating strong market interest [3] Group 2 - Guosen Securities predicts that the photovoltaic industry will undergo necessary consolidation and is expected to enter a stable development phase by 2027, with significant advantages in the silicon material segment [4] - The price of polysilicon has risen sharply to 45,000-50,000 yuan per ton, with some companies recovering profitability, suggesting a positive trend in the industry [4] - The photovoltaic industry is currently experiencing a cautious approach from power investment companies due to uncertainties in electricity prices and demand, raising questions about the sustainability of previous high growth rates [4] Group 3 - The overall trend in the photovoltaic industry post-June 1 indicates a market intervention to accelerate capacity clearance, despite weak demand [5] - Recent price increases in the capital and spot markets reflect a market response to policy interventions aimed at achieving profitability above costs [5] - The 136th document's impact on the market suggests a potential decrease in future electricity prices, indicating a need for companies to lower total investment costs [5] Group 4 - There are differing opinions on future trends, with one view suggesting that state intervention can quickly achieve supply-side reforms and capacity clearance, while another emphasizes the necessity of market-driven sales and profits [6] - The photovoltaic ETF closely tracks the CSI Photovoltaic Industry Index, which is currently at a historical low valuation with a price-to-book ratio of 1.9, presenting a compelling investment opportunity [6] - The CSI Photovoltaic Industry Index includes up to 50 representative listed companies from the photovoltaic industry chain, reflecting the overall performance of these securities [6]

工业硅日报 工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 7 月 11 日） 一、研究观点 点评 10 日多晶硅震荡偏强，主力 2508 收于 41345 元/吨，日内涨幅 5.5%，持仓增仓 1414 手至 98601 手；SMM 多晶硅 N 型硅料价格涨至 41500 元/吨，最低交割品 N 型硅料价格涨至 41500 元/吨，现货对主力升水收至 155 元/吨。工业硅震荡 偏弱，主力 2509 收于 8470 元/吨，日内涨幅 3.74%，持仓减仓 17792 手至 38.1 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 8777 元/吨，较上一交易日持稳。最低交割品 #421 价格涨至 8250 元/吨，现货升水转至贴水 290 元/吨。市场消息多晶硅将 进行成本摸排定价，低于最低成本价或面临处罚；原定复产取消，行业或通过 收储、协会制定标杆成本价以及将光伏从制造品作为能源品定位等路径实现产 能逐步出清。目前多晶硅交易逻辑处于政策调控和多方消息的发酵期内，行业 反内卷减产预期加速。盘面波动率提升，整体存在较强支撑，不宜逆势沽空、 可选择观望或轻仓试多。工业硅仓单下降但社库积累压制反弹空间，仍以高抛 思路对待。重点关注双 ...