前一日晚间，牧原股份正式披露半年报，并召开业绩交流会。上半年，这家生猪养殖公司在营收增长 34%的基础上，归母净利润、扣非后净利润重返100亿元以上，且均实现了超过1100%的大幅增长。 以上可观的盈利增幅，与牧原股份去年较低的利润基数、今年成本下降所带来的盈利月份增加等因素密 切相关，符合此前市场各方预期。 相比于经营业绩，牧原股份在产能调控措施上的规划同样值得重点关注。 在半年报交流会上，牧原股份表示，为平衡市场供需关系，促进生猪价格平稳运行，国家实施对生猪产 能的综合调控，牧原将分别调减能繁母猪存栏规模、加强生猪出栏体重管理、全面停止向二次育肥客户 销售育肥猪，以促进生猪价格平稳运行。 作为全国出栏规模最大的龙头企业，牧原股份（002714）在半年报交流会上给出了去产能规划。 21世纪经济报道记者董鹏8月21日早盘，市值超过2500亿元的牧原股份涨幅一度接近9%。 而作为国内生猪出栏规模最大、成本最低的行业龙头，牧原股份率先"反内卷"，不仅对猪价走势影响明 显，也为其自身提供了一个相对稳定的市场环境。 11倍盈利增长背后 上半年，牧原股份实现105.3亿元的归母净利润、1169.77%的利润增幅，是建立 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is actively pursuing international expansion and cost reduction strategies, with significant growth in revenue and profit reported for the first half of 2025, while also responding to domestic production capacity adjustments in the pig farming industry [1][2][3][4]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 76.463 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.46% - Net profit reached 10.79 billion yuan, reflecting a substantial year-on-year increase of 952.92% - The net cash flow from operating activities was 17.351 billion yuan, up 12.13% compared to the same period last year [1]. International Expansion - The company has established a wholly-owned subsidiary in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, as part of its internationalization strategy - The company submitted an application for H-share issuance on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in May 2025, marking a significant step in its global strategy - The funds raised will primarily be used for global expansion and research and development, rather than for increasing domestic production capacity [1][2]. Overseas Market Strategy - The company is leveraging its successful domestic breeding techniques to enhance biosecurity and disease prevention in overseas markets, particularly in Vietnam - An overseas business team has been formed to explore various international business models, including light-asset approaches and potential acquisitions [2]. Domestic Market Adjustments - The company is actively reducing its breeding sow inventory in response to national production capacity regulations, with plans to decrease from 3.621 million to 3.3 million by the end of 2025 - This reduction aligns with national goals to stabilize the total breeding sow population at around 39.5 million [3][4]. Cost Management - The company's breeding costs have decreased from 13.1 yuan/kg to 11.8 yuan/kg from January to July 2025, with some facilities achieving costs below 11 yuan/kg - The target for average breeding costs for the year is set at 12 yuan/kg, with a goal to reduce it to 11 yuan/kg by year-end [5].

Core Insights - The company reported significant growth in its financial performance for the first half of 2025, with a revenue of 76.463 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.46%, and a net profit of 10.53 billion yuan, reflecting a staggering growth of 1169.77% [1][2] - The increase in revenue is attributed to a rise in the number of pigs sold and a decrease in breeding costs, with a notable increase in the sales volume of pigs from 32.388 million to 46.91 million [1][2] Financial Performance - Revenue for the breeding business reached 75.446 billion yuan, with 46.91 million pigs sold, including 38.394 million market pigs, 8.291 million piglets, and 225,000 breeding pigs [1] - The slaughtering and meat business generated revenue of 19.345 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 93.83%, with 11.4148 million pigs slaughtered, marking a growth of 110.87% [1] - The company's cash flow from operating activities was 17.35 billion yuan, up 12.13% year-on-year [1] Cost Management - The breeding cost of pigs decreased from 13.1 yuan/kg at the beginning of the year to below 12.1 yuan/kg by June, with a target to further reduce it to 11 yuan/kg by the end of the year [2] - The company is actively reducing its breeding capacity, with the number of breeding sows decreasing by 54,000 to 3.43 million as of June 2025, and an expected reduction to 3.3 million by year-end [2] Shareholder Returns - The company has initiated substantial dividend distributions, proposing a cash dividend of 9.32 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 5 billion yuan for the first half of the year [2] - The total cash dividends and share buybacks for the first half of the year exceeded 7 billion yuan, accounting for approximately 67.71% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the significant growth in the agricultural sector, particularly in pig farming and slaughtering businesses, as evidenced by the impressive financial results of Muyuan Foods [3][4] - Muyuan Foods reported a revenue of approximately RMB 81.2 billion for the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 187%, with a net profit of RMB 15.24 billion, up 1170.8% [3][4] - The company sold 38.39 million pigs in the first half of 2025, a 32.5% increase year-on-year, capturing about 10.5% of the domestic market share [4] Group 2 - The growth in Muyuan Foods' performance is attributed to the rapid expansion of its pig farming and slaughtering operations, with slaughtering volume increasing by 110.8% year-on-year [4] - The company aims to reduce its pig farming costs to an average of RMB 12 per kg by the end of 2025, with current costs showing a downward trend [4] - Regulatory policies in the pig farming sector are tightening, which may lead to short-term price pressures but are expected to stabilize the market in the long run, benefiting the industry [5]

Group 1 - The livestock ETF (159865) has increased by over 1.2%, with a net inflow of nearly 300 million yuan in the past 10 days according to Wind data [1] - As of the time of reporting, over 60 million shares have been subscribed today [1] - Dongxing Securities indicates that capacity regulation driven by policy will remain a core theme for the foreseeable future, with expectations for the elimination of outdated capacity increasing, leading to significant catalysts for the sector [1] Group 2 - The livestock ETF (159865) tracks the CSI Livestock Index (930707), which selects listed companies involved in livestock farming, feed processing, and veterinary drug production to reflect the overall performance of related securities [1] - The constituent stocks cover the entire industry chain from farming to processing, demonstrating strong industry representation [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Guotai CSI Livestock Farming ETF Connect A (012724) and Guotai CSI Livestock Farming ETF Connect C (012725) [1]

Group 1 - The company reported a revenue of 76.46 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 34.5% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 10.53 billion yuan, showing a significant year-on-year growth of 1169.7% [1] - For the second quarter of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 40.40 billion yuan, up 32.1% year-on-year, and a net profit of 6.04 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The company recorded a stable growth in the number of livestock, with 46.91 million heads sold in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 45% [2] - The number of commercial pigs sold was 38.39 million heads, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 32%, while the sale of piglets surged by 168% to 8.29 million heads [2] - The company is actively managing breeding costs and aims for high-quality development, with a reduction in the number of breeding sows to 3.431 million heads by the end of June [2] Group 3 - The company demonstrated strong financial health, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 56.06% at the end of Q2 2025, a decrease of 2.62 percentage points from the end of 2024 [2] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 9.32 yuan per 10 shares, amounting to 47.5% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025 [1] - As an industry leader, the company is expected to maintain stable performance amid capacity control measures, with improved operational quality and reduced capital expenditures [2]

Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 76.463 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.46% [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 10.530 billion yuan, a staggering year-on-year growth of 1,169.77% [4] - The net cash flow from operating activities was 17.351 billion yuan, up 12.13% year-on-year [4] - As of the end of Q2 2025, the company's debt-to-asset ratio was 56.06%, a decrease of 3.14 percentage points from the end of Q1 [5] Debt Management - The company aims to reduce its overall debt by 10 billion yuan this year, having already decreased its total debt by 5.6 billion yuan by the end of Q2, achieving over half of its target [5] Livestock Production - In the first half of 2025, the company sold 46.91 million pigs, including 38.39 million market pigs, 8.29 million piglets, and 225,000 breeding pigs [5] - The number of breeding sows as of June 2025 was 3.431 million, with plans to reduce this to 3.3 million by year-end [7][8] - The cost of pig farming has decreased to approximately 11.8 yuan/kg as of July, with a target of an average cost of 12 yuan/kg for the year [5][14] Slaughtering and Meat Processing - The company slaughtered 11.4148 million pigs in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 110.87%, with a capacity utilization rate of 78.72% [6] - The company reported a significant reduction in losses, down to approximately 100 million yuan compared to the previous year [6] Dividend Distribution - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 9.32 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 5.002 billion yuan, which accounts for 47.50% of the net profit for the first half of 2025 [6][10] Industry Response and Strategy - The company is actively responding to national measures for capacity regulation in the pig industry, including reducing the number of breeding sows and managing pig weights [7][8] - The company has halted sales of fattening pigs to secondary fattening customers to ensure all pigs are directed to slaughterhouses [8] Global Expansion - The company is advancing its global strategy through its Hong Kong stock issuance, with funds primarily allocated for global market expansion and R&D, not for domestic capacity increases [9] - An overseas business team has been established to explore international markets, leveraging existing technology and cost advantages [11][12] Cost Reduction Initiatives - The company has successfully reduced costs from 13.1 yuan/kg in January to 11.8 yuan/kg in July, with a target to further decrease to 11 yuan/kg by year-end [14] - Key cost reduction strategies include breeding improvements, health management, and employee training [14] Community Engagement - The company is enhancing its piglet sales and providing customized solutions for farmers, aiming to strengthen ties and share industry benefits [15]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Muyuan Foods, reported a significant increase in its half-year performance, with a net profit growth of 1169.77% and plans for substantial cash dividends to shareholders, while actively participating in industry capacity regulation [2][3][5]. Financial Performance - In the first half of the year, the company achieved operating revenue of 764.63 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.46% [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 105.3 billion yuan, reflecting a remarkable growth of 1169.77% [3] - The company sold 46.91 million pigs, with a slaughter volume of 11.41 million pigs, marking a 110.87% increase year-on-year [3] - The cash flow from operating activities was 173.5 billion yuan, up 12.13% compared to the previous year [2] Dividend and Share Buyback - Muyuan Foods plans to distribute a cash dividend of 9.32 yuan per 10 shares (including tax), totaling 50.02 billion yuan [2][7] - As of June 30, the company has repurchased 52.54 million shares, with a total transaction amount of 2.11 billion yuan [2][7] Industry Capacity Regulation - The company is committed to reducing its breeding sow inventory to 3.3 million by the end of the year, in line with national capacity regulation efforts [4][5] - As of the end of the second quarter, the breeding sow inventory was reduced to 3.43 million, a decrease of 54,000 heads [5] - The company aims to lower the average weight of pigs for slaughter to 120 kg by the end of the year [5] Strategic Initiatives - Muyuan Foods is expanding its global presence, having established a subsidiary in Vietnam and applied for an H-share listing in Hong Kong [7] - The funds raised from the H-share listing will primarily be used for smart farming research and international supply chain development, rather than increasing domestic production capacity [7] Commitment to Quality and Sustainability - The company emphasizes the importance of meeting customer needs and aims to produce safe and healthy pork products while promoting high-quality industry development [8]

Summary of the Conference Call for Muyuan Foods Co., Ltd. Company Overview - **Company**: Muyuan Foods Co., Ltd. - **Industry**: Swine farming and meat processing Key Financial Performance - **Revenue**: In the first half of 2025, revenue reached 51 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.13% [2] - **Net Profit**: For the same period, net profit was 105.3 billion yuan, showing a growth of over 11 times compared to the previous year [3] - **Debt Ratio**: The debt ratio decreased to 56.06%, down 3.14 percentage points from the end of the first quarter [2][4] - **Cash Flow**: Operating cash flow was 173.51 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.13% [3] Production and Sales - **Pig Sales**: Sold 46.94 million pigs in the first half of 2025, including 38.39 million commercial pigs [2][5] - **Breeding Stock**: The number of breeding sows is planned to be reduced to 3.3 million by the end of the year, a decrease of 130,000 from the second quarter [2][8] - **Cost Management**: The complete cost of pig farming dropped to approximately 11.8 yuan per kilogram in July, with a target of averaging 12 yuan per kilogram for the year [2][15] Slaughtering and Meat Processing - **Slaughter Volume**: Slaughtered 11.41 million pigs, a year-on-year increase of over 110.87% [6] - **Utilization Rate**: Capacity utilization rate improved to 78.72% [6] - **Losses**: Despite a loss of approximately 100 million yuan, the loss was significantly reduced compared to the previous year [6][20] Shareholder Returns - **Dividend Distribution**: Announced a cash dividend of 9.32 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 5 billion yuan, which is 47.5% of the net profit for the first half of 2025 [7][10] Strategic Initiatives - **Global Expansion**: Funds raised from the Hong Kong stock issuance will be used for R&D and overseas expansion, not for domestic capacity increases [9][11] - **Response to National Policies**: Actively responding to national capacity control policies, taking on 30% of the target [8][25] - **Future Plans**: No new domestic capacity plans for the second half of the year; focus on maintaining existing capacity [9][28] Cost Reduction and Efficiency - **Cost Targets**: Aiming for an average cost of 12 yuan per kilogram for the year, with a goal to reduce it to 11 yuan by year-end [15] - **Cost Management Strategies**: Focus on breeding improvements, disease control, and employee training to enhance production efficiency [15][19] Industry Context - **Market Dynamics**: The company is committed to fulfilling its capacity control commitments, which may influence production and operational plans for the upcoming year [8][27] - **Collaboration with Other Enterprises**: The company is exploring partnerships and collaborative models to enhance its market position and service offerings [21] Conclusion Muyuan Foods Co., Ltd. is demonstrating strong financial performance and strategic initiatives aimed at enhancing production efficiency, responding to national policies, and expanding its global footprint while maintaining a focus on shareholder returns and cost management.

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a significant transformation in industry policies, focusing on protecting farmers' rights and stimulating enterprise innovation. Future growth stocks will likely prioritize technological content and innovative models while mobilizing existing production factors [5][16] - The report anticipates that the industry's profit center will recover due to clear capacity regulation policies and a strong commitment to maintaining stable pig prices [5][16] - The report recommends focusing on companies with a "platform + ecosystem" model, particularly technology-driven and service-oriented ecological platform companies like Dekang Agriculture, as well as leading pig farming companies such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff [5][16] Summary by Sections 1. Swine Industry - The latest pig price is 13.67 CNY/kg (down 0.06 CNY/kg MoM), with an average slaughter weight of 127.82 kg (up 0.02 kg MoM). The price for 15 kg piglets is 484 CNY/head (down 33 CNY/head MoM). Short-term price declines may be due to policy-induced weight reductions [4][15] - Dekang reported a pre-fair value profit of 1.273 billion CNY for H1 2025, a 251% YoY increase, and is expected to achieve over 1.5 billion CNY in profits from its swine segment, with a per-head profit exceeding 300 CNY [5][15] 2. Poultry Industry - The price of chicken seedlings in Yantai is 3.65 CNY/chick (unchanged MoM), and the price of broiler chickens is 3.65 CNY/kg (up 1.39% MoM, down 4.7% YoY). Seasonal factors and structural price increases in downstream products may lead to a price recovery in the industry [6][16] - The report identifies two main lines of focus: high-quality imported breeding stock leaders and fully integrated industry leaders like Yisheng and Shengnong Development [6][16] 3. Feed Industry - The report recommends Haida Group due to the recovery of the industry, improved management effects, and increased capacity utilization, which is expected to lead to volume and profit growth [7][17] - The report notes a slight decline in water product prices due to the seasonal arrival of new fish varieties, with various fish species showing mixed price changes [7][17] 4. Pet Industry - The pet category saw a month-on-month increase in sales growth in July, despite uncertainties regarding tariffs and export fluctuations impacting the sector [9][20] - The report emphasizes the resilience of leading companies in the pet sector, such as Guibao and Zhongchong, which are expected to maintain high growth rates and drive industry concentration [9][21] 5. Agricultural Products - The USDA's August supply and demand report unexpectedly lowered the new season's soybean harvest area, tightening the supply-demand relationship for U.S. soybeans. Domestic soybean imports are expected to decline seasonally, which may lead to an upward shift in soybean meal prices [11][21]