Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View - The medium- and long-term bond bull market may still be expected, but in the short term, due to the phased results of the China-US tariff negotiations and the release of interest rate and reserve requirement ratio cut benefits, the market risk aversion sentiment has significantly cooled, and the bond market has weakened oscillatingly. Considering the significant short-term divergence in the market, there may be no high-quality trading opportunities in the short term, and attention should be paid to the risk of a supplementary decline in the long end due to short-term spread correction [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Disk - T主力收盘价108.575，较昨日持平；成交量减少11186手 - TF主力收盘价105.755，较昨日上涨0.01%；成交量11808手，较昨日减少2924手 - TS主力收盘价102.234，较昨日下跌0.01%；成交量3998手，较昨日增加1577手 - TL主力收盘价118.980，较昨日上涨0.05%；成交量9224手，较昨日减少29735手 [2] Futures Spread - TL2509 - 2506价差0.78，较昨日增加0.09 - T2509 - 2506价差0.28，较昨日增加0.02 - TF2509 - 2506价差0.31，较昨日增加0.02 - TS2509 - 2506价差0.20，较昨日增加0.04 [2] Futures Position - T主力持仓量39079手，较昨日减少4898手；前20名多头持仓188017手，较昨日减少1843手；前20名空头持仓190678手，较昨日减少283手；前20名净空仓2661手，较昨日增加1560手 - TF主力持仓量32848手，较昨日减少5305手；前20名多头持仓129115手，较昨日增加2055手；前20名空头持仓141593手，较昨日增加3053手；前20名净空仓12478手，较昨日增加998手 - TS主力持仓量17483手，较昨日减少2274手；前20名多头持仓88612手，较昨日减少538手；前20名空头持仓106720手，较昨日减少266手；前20名净空仓18108手，较昨日增加272手 - TL主力持仓量25449手，较昨日减少2949手；前20名多头持仓103846手，较昨日增加1120手；前20名空头持仓109280手，较昨日增加1193手；前20名净空仓5434手，较昨日增加73手 [2] Top Two CTD (Clean Price) - 2500802.IB(6y)净价99.4932，较昨日上涨0.0102 - 250007.IB(6y)净价99.0955，较昨日下跌0.0162 - 240020.IB(4y)净价100.9454，较昨日上涨0.0304 - 250006.IB(1.7y)净价100.2234，较昨日上涨0.0089 - 240010.IB(1.9y)净价100.7079，较昨日下跌0.0079 - 210005.IB(18y)净价135.4673，较昨日上涨0.1222 - 220008.IB(18y)净价127.5288，较昨日上涨0.1207 [2] Active Treasury Bonds - 1年期国债收益率1.4450%，较昨日持平 - 3年期国债收益率1.4900%，较昨日持平 - 5年期国债收益率1.5250%，较昨日下跌0.75bp - 7年期国债收益率1.6080%，较昨日下跌0.20bp - 10年期国债收益率1.6890%，较昨日上涨0.30bp [2] Short-Term Interest Rates - 银质押隔夜利率1.5112%，较昨日上涨6.12bp - Shibor隔夜利率1.5060%，较昨日下跌5.90bp - 银质押7天利率1.6000%，较昨日上涨1.00bp - Shibor7天利率1.5790%，较昨日上涨2.70bp [2] Open Market Operations - 发行规模1350亿，到期规模3820亿，利率1.4%，期限7天 [2] Industry News - 5月23日，中国人民银行开展5000亿元1年期MLF操作 - 5月25日，美国总统特朗普同意将对欧盟征收50%关税的起征时间从6月1日延至7月9日 [2] Key Events to Watch - 5月26日21:00，欧洲央行行长拉加德发表讲话 - 5月27日20:30，美国4月耐用品订单月率 - 5月27日22:00，美国5月谘商会消费者信心指数 [3]

Group 1 - The technology sector is experiencing a recovery in trading sentiment due to the easing of tariff frictions, which may lead to a strong performance in the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices [1][3] - The recent announcement of a package of financial support policies by Chinese authorities, including interest rate cuts, has contributed to the upward movement of the A-share market [1][2] - Despite the positive developments, the A-share market requires new driving factors to reach a higher trading range, as current economic challenges persist [1][2] Group 2 - The recent reduction in tariffs between China and the US indicates a potential for further tariff decreases, although uncertainties in policy remain [2] - The market is expected to experience a range-bound trading pattern in the short term, with a focus on structural opportunities and market rhythm [2] - Institutional funds are likely to favor undervalued, high-dividend sectors as interest rates decline and performance pressures emerge in the second quarter [3]

Group 1 - The main external uncertainty facing China this year is the U.S. foreign policy, particularly its trade policy, with a consensus reached to pause the implementation of a 24% tariff for 90 days, but future tariff trends remain uncertain [1][2] - JPMorgan has revised its GDP growth forecast for China from 4.1% to 4.8% for the year, indicating that while economic slowdown is expected in the coming quarters, it will not be as severe as previously feared [1][2] - The two main themes for policy adjustments this year are the evolution of trade relations between China and the U.S. and domestic policy adjustments, with a more proactive fiscal policy supported by central government expansion [2] Group 2 - The current economic structure transformation shows both highlights and challenges, with a need to boost household income growth and employment confidence as a policy focus [2] - The real estate market is expected to stabilize gradually, with true stabilization likely not occurring until 2026 [2] - The stock market outlook for Q2 is characterized by a "step back, two steps forward" approach, with the market likely to remain flat during the 90-day tariff pause, although there is optimism for the performance of Hong Kong and A-shares in Q3 [2] Group 3 - In sector allocation, the rating for information technology has been adjusted from overweight to neutral due to high valuations and expectations, with a long-term valuation difficult to maintain at 25 to 30 times sales [3] - The internet and healthcare sectors remain favorable, particularly the healthcare sector, which could benefit from potential U.S. healthcare reforms leading to lower drug prices, positively impacting China's innovative drug products [3]

Group 1: Market Overview - The short-term bond market is expected to experience fluctuations, and unilateral operations are not recommended. However, if the liquidity does not continue to tighten, it is suggested to buy TS contracts on dips as valuations are relatively reasonable [1][4] - As of May 20, different maturity bond contracts showed continued divergence, with long-end contracts performing stronger and short-end contracts weaker. TL and T contracts both increased by 0.03%, while TF and TS contracts decreased by 0.04% and 0.03% respectively [1] Group 2: Economic Resilience - In April, the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 6.1% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points from the previous month, but still better than market expectations. The service production index also showed resilience with a 6.0% year-on-year growth [2] - Fixed asset investment and retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.5% and 5.1% year-on-year respectively, indicating a strong demand side despite a slowdown in the real estate sector [2] - In April, new social financing reached 1.1591 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.2249 trillion yuan year-on-year, primarily supported by government bond financing [2] Group 3: Financial Data Insights - By the end of April, M2 money supply grew by 8.0% year-on-year, reflecting strong monetary support for the real economy, while M1 growth slowed to 1.5% year-on-year [2] - The decrease in household short-term and long-term loans by 401.9 billion yuan and 123.1 billion yuan respectively indicates a tightening in consumer credit and a slowdown in real estate sales [2] Group 4: Yield Curve Dynamics - The overall liquidity in May was more relaxed compared to April, with R001 and R007 rates dropping to 1.43% and 1.53%, respectively, creating a negative carry in the current bonds [4] - There is a divergence in market views regarding future liquidity, with concerns about potential tightening from the central bank amid high government bond issuance [4] - The ability of the yield curve to open up downward space will depend on whether liquidity continues to ease, which could lead to a decline in short-term yields [4]

Core Insights - The article discusses the urgency and challenges faced by U.S. retailers in preparing for the upcoming holiday season, particularly Christmas, due to tariff fluctuations and reliance on imports from China [1][2][4]. Group 1: U.S. Retailers and Import Challenges - U.S. retailers are under pressure to place orders early for holiday products, with some needing to start production as early as May or June to avoid empty shelves during peak shopping periods [1][4]. - A significant portion of holiday inventory, such as artificial Christmas trees and decorations, is sourced from China, with 95% of Aldik Home's inventory coming from Chinese suppliers [1][2]. - Tariff changes have created uncertainty for U.S. retailers, with potential increases in costs leading to fears of inflated prices for consumers, such as a Christmas tree potentially rising from $1,000 to $2,500 [5][6]. Group 2: Tariff Adjustments and Market Response - In May, a temporary agreement was reached to lower tariffs by 115%, providing some relief to U.S. retailers as they prepare for the holiday season [4][6]. - The current tariff rate for small goods is approximately 30%, which is similar to levels before April, allowing for a recovery in export volumes to 60%-70% of previous levels [6][12]. - The 90-day tariff window allows U.S. retailers to place orders without incurring excessive tariffs, which is crucial for maintaining inventory levels for the Christmas season [6][7]. Group 3: Impact on Cross-Border E-commerce - Cross-border e-commerce companies are experiencing significant impacts from tariff changes, with larger firms able to absorb costs better than smaller companies [10][12]. - The cancellation of favorable tariff policies for small packages has raised concerns among U.S. consumers regarding the final prices of imported goods, as tariffs on small packages have increased from 0% to 54% [9][10]. - Smaller e-commerce firms are struggling with reduced sales, highlighting the disparity in how different-sized companies are affected by tariff fluctuations [10][12]. Group 4: Product-Specific Insights - The article notes that while Christmas-related products are in high demand, other categories like toys are seeing increased inquiries post-tariff adjustments, although order placements remain cautious [12]. - The competitive landscape in the Christmas goods market is intensifying, with manufacturers offering significant discounts and promotional strategies to attract buyers [12][13]. - Innovations in product quality, such as enhanced details in Christmas decorations, are being pursued by manufacturers to differentiate themselves in a challenging market [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On Monday, the yields of Treasury bonds strengthened, with yields from 1 - 7Y down by 0.5 - 2bp, and 10Y and 30Y yields down by about 2bp to 1.66% and 1.89% respectively. Treasury bond futures closed up collectively, with the TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts rising 0.01%, 0.04%, 0.13%, and 0.37% respectively. The weighted average rate of DR007 rebounded to around 1.66%. [2] - Domestically, policy pre - force boosts domestic demand, resulting in strong economic data. Retail sales, fixed - asset investment, and industrial added value slightly exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate improved month - on - month. In April's financial data, credit was weak, possibly due to the overdraft of reserves from Q1 credit issuance. Core inflation improved, but industrial price data was still weak due to international commodities. The expected escalation of tariff friction led to an export rebound, and fiscal and monetary policies are expected to be continuously strengthened for stable growth. [2] - Overseas, the US April PMI declined slightly, non - farm payrolls growth, PPI, and retail sales data were all below expectations, and CPI cooled unexpectedly. However, the market has not significantly adjusted the expectation of a June interest rate cut. [2] - Strategically, recent Sino - US tariff negotiations achieved phased results, and the release of interest rate and reserve requirement cuts' positive news led to a significant decline in market risk - aversion sentiment, causing the bond market to weaken. Considering the significant short - end underperformance compared to the long - end recently, there may be no good short - term trading opportunities, and there is a risk of long - end catch - up decline due to short - term spread correction. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - T main contract closed at 108.605, up 0.13%, with a trading volume of 57,954, an increase of 8,147. [2] - TF main contract closed at 105.735, up 0.04%, with a trading volume of 42,586, an increase of 10,666. [2] - TS main contract closed at 102.258, unchanged, with a trading volume of 15,952, an increase of 169. [2] - TL main contract closed at 119.320, up 0.37%, with a trading volume of 43,076, a decrease of 8,519. [2] 3.2 Futures Spreads - TL2509 - 2506 spread was 0.40, up 0.02; T06 - TL06 spread was - 10.72, down 0.28. [2] - T2509 - 2506 spread was 0.22, up 0.05; TF2509 - 2506 spread was 0.27, up 0.08. [2] - TF06 - T06 spread was - 2.87, down 0.11; TS06 - T06 spread was - 6.35, down 0.14. [2] - TS2509 - 2506 spread was 0.13, up 0.01; TS06 - TF06 spread was - 3.48, down 0.03. [2] 3.3 Futures Positions - T main contract open interest was 82,926, a decrease of 16,686. The top 20 long positions were 180,613, a decrease of 1,278; the top 20 short positions were 180,122, a decrease of 642; the net short position was 0, unchanged. [2] - TF main contract open interest was 66,890, a decrease of 12,462. The top 20 long positions were 133,033, a decrease of 1,890; the top 20 short positions were 146,502, a decrease of 2,268; the net short position was 13,469, a decrease of 378. [2] - TS main contract open interest was 37,646, a decrease of 6,630. The top 20 long positions were 89,490, a decrease of 1,659; the top 20 short positions were 108,959, a decrease of 2,221; the net short position was 19,469, a decrease of 562. [2] - TL main contract open interest was 47,914, a decrease of 2,273. The top 20 long positions were 95,272, an increase of 2,512; the top 20 short positions were 95,170, an increase of 2,183; the net short position was 0, unchanged. [2] 3.4 Top Two CTD (Clean Price) - 220003.IB (6y) was 107.0295, up 0.0553; 240025.IB (6y) was 99.0955, up 0.0942. [2] - 240014.IB (4y) was 101.4363, up 0.0166; 220021.IB (4y) was 104.4235, up 0.0108. [2] - 250006.IB (1.7y) was 100.2214, up 0.0134; 220007.IB (1.9y) was 101.903, up 0.0236. [2] - 200012.IB (18y) was 136.4822, up 0.3013; 210005.IB (18y) was 135.4265, up 0.2939. [2] 3.5 Active Treasury Bonds - 1y yield was 1.4450%, up 1.00bp; 3y yield was 1.5050%, up 1.50bp. [2] - 5y yield was 1.5450%, up 0.75bp; 7y yield was 1.6300%, up 0.75bp. [2] - 10y yield was 1.6790%, up 0.90bp. [2] 3.6 Short - term Interest Rates - Overnight silver - pledged repo rate was 1.5256%, up 4.56bp; Shibor overnight was 1.5370%, down 11.70bp. [2] - 7 - day silver - pledged repo rate was 1.6100%, up 1.00bp; Shibor 7 - day was 1.5620%, up 1.70bp. [2] - 14 - day silver - pledged repo rate was 1.6700%, up 3.37bp; Shibor 14 - day was 1.6540%, up 5.30bp. [2] 3.7 LPR Rates - 1y LPR was 3.10%, unchanged; 5y LPR was 3.6%, unchanged. [2] 3.8 Open Market Operations - Reverse repurchase issuance scale was 135 billion yuan, with a maturity scale of 43 billion yuan, and the interest rate was 1.5% for 7 days. Another issuance scale was 92 billion yuan. [2] 3.9 Industry News - Central Bank Governor Pan Gongsheng, Financial Regulatory Administration Director Li Yunze, and CSRC Chairman Wu Qing attended the Capital Financial Work Symposium. Pan Gongsheng said the central bank will support Beijing in building a high - ground for science and technology finance development and promoting Beijing's RMB internationalization to remain at the forefront nationwide. [2] - US President Trump said he will set new tariff rates for US trading partners in the "next two to three weeks", stating that the US government is unable to negotiate with all trading partners simultaneously. Treasury Secretary Bezant and Commerce Secretary Ratnik will send letters to inform countries of the costs for accessing the US market. [2] - Moody's downgraded the US rating from AAA to AA1 and adjusted the outlook from negative to stable, citing increased government debt. By 2035, the US federal debt burden will rise to 134% of GDP, and the federal government deficit is expected to reach 9% of GDP. GDP growth may slow as the economy adjusts to tariffs. [2]

"目前的关税摩擦以及后果，乃至于市场上的一些波动性，对国家主权财经基金来说都是局部、短期的问题。" 随着美国挥舞关税大棒，人们更加关注未来全球化的走向，"去全球"的担忧愈演愈烈。 近日，在2025清华五道口全球金融论坛上，国家主权财富基金国际论坛CEO邓肯·邦菲尔德表示，虽然当下国家之间面临很多关税的争端，但不能忽视全球 化过程中资本市场的力量，比如，以国家主权财富基金为代表的耐心资本的力量。 | which it a do the harts destrate that the had the had and any have and should of the destrated and which the late to do the land to the last hall de de la hall de la hall de la hall de hall and the hall and | THERROBORCESSEERS | | | --- | --- | --- | | and to the land to the commend 444444444444444 | | | | Adv ...

Group 1 - The recent significant fluctuations in U.S. Treasury yields were primarily triggered by unexpected tariff policies announced by President Trump, leading to a sharp decline and subsequent rise in yields over three distinct phases from March 28 to April 24 [1][20][15] - The first phase saw a decline in yields due to concerns over a potential global economic recession, with 2Y and 10Y Treasury yields dropping by 29 basis points (bps) and 37 bps respectively [20] - The second phase experienced a rapid increase in yields, with 2Y yields rising by 28 bps and 10Y and 30Y yields increasing by 47 bps and 44 bps respectively, marking the largest weekly increases since the tech bubble burst in 2001 and the economic crisis in 1982 [20][15] Group 2 - The recent auction of new U.S. Treasuries faced weak demand, with the 3-year Treasury auction showing the highest tailing spread since the pandemic and the lowest bid-to-cover ratio in nearly three years, raising concerns about demand and liquidity [2][26] - Hedge funds faced significant pressure to close basis trades, leading to substantial selling pressure in the U.S., Europe, and Japan, as the volatility in Treasury futures prices forced traders to liquidate positions [3][29] - Confidence in U.S. dollar assets as a safe haven was undermined, resulting in a simultaneous decline in U.S. equities, bonds, and the dollar, while non-U.S. assets like Japanese and European bonds, as well as gold, benefited from this shift [4][33] Group 3 - Historical analysis shows that since 2007, there have been six significant fluctuations in U.S. Treasury yields, with the first two linked to crises that drove investors to seek safety in Treasuries, resulting in substantial declines in yields [5][40] - The most recent fluctuations in 2020 and 2023 exhibited a similar pattern of initial declines followed by increases, influenced by liquidity crises and strong economic data [5][40] Group 4 - Short-term outlook for U.S. Treasury yields indicates narrow fluctuations with high market vulnerability due to multiple factors, including uncertainties surrounding tariff negotiations and the potential for further volatility in financial markets [6][46] - The medium to long-term outlook suggests a return to a downward trend in yields, contingent on easing tariff uncertainties and a potential resumption of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, although concerns over debt sustainability and geopolitical tensions may elevate yield volatility [10][11]

Macro - The rebound in social financing growth is primarily driven by government bonds, with April's new social financing reaching 1.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.2 trillion yuan, raising the stock growth rate to 8.7%, the highest since March 2024 [1] - New loans in April amounted to 280 billion yuan, a decrease of 450 billion yuan year-on-year, with corporate note financing being the main support for credit in April, contributing 834.1 billion yuan [1] - The financial data for April reflects continued policy efforts to stabilize growth, including accelerated issuance and utilization of government bonds, while internal demand, particularly from households, still requires further support [1][2] Retail - Substantial progress in US-China trade negotiations has led to a significant reduction in bilateral tariff levels, with the US committing to cancel 91% of tariffs imposed on Chinese goods and China reciprocating similarly [4] - The negotiations took place on May 10-11, with a joint statement released on May 12, indicating a temporary suspension of 24% of tariffs for 90 days while retaining 10% [4] Machinery - The Chinese gas turbine industry is expected to benefit from two main developments: improvements in domestic manufacturers' gas turbine technology and increased demand from data center construction, leading to a positive outlook for the global gas turbine market [7] - The domestic gas turbine market is seeing breakthroughs in self-developed technology, which is expected to enhance the localization rate of both complete machines and core components [7] - The global demand for gas turbines is anticipated to rise significantly due to new requirements from data centers, providing opportunities for domestic manufacturers with core component technology [7]

Group 1 - JPMorgan's strategists, led by Jay Barry, have raised their forecast for the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield at the end of 2025 to 4.35%, up from a previous estimate of 4% [1] - The forecast for the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield at the end of the year has also been increased to 3.5%, previously estimated at 3% [1] - The easing of trade tensions initiated by President Trump is expected to benefit U.S. economic growth, potentially leading the Federal Reserve to delay interest rate cuts [1]