文 ｜ 杨帆 姜娅 刘海博 玛西高娃 遥远 裘翔 崔嵘 刘春彤 盛夏 李越 当地时间4月2日，美国总统特朗普签署行政令对中国的进口商品加征3 4%的对等关税，随后北京 时间4月4日中国公布一系列反制措施。与今年前两轮反制相比，中国此次反制力度明显升级，在 关税覆盖商品比例上和美国做到了对等，出口管制的深度进一步提升，同时反制措施的种类也较此 前更为丰富。向后看，特朗普关税仍可能有频繁转折，需更多关注纳瓦罗与卢特尼克的表态。后续 三方面因素或带来形势变化，一是其他国家或地区究竟选择大力对美反制还是"魅力攻势"，二是美 国国内民调的变化，三是民意基础松动后国会的选择。A股策略方面，我们认为此次关税摩擦后， 市场不确定性加大，投资者风险偏好下降明显，建议聚焦核心资产，强化自主可控。海外宏观方 面，我国关税反制政策对美国经济的负面影响主要集中在农业、油气、航空航天设备及零部件、电 子与通信设备等相关行业。农业板块方面，此次中国反制利多农产品价格，农业种植链是稀缺的反 制受益板块。机械板块方面，我们判断自主可控、高端制造国产替代或将加速。 ▍ 事项： 据美国白宫官网，当地时间4月2日，特朗普宣布"对等关税"政策，对中国 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the imminent implementation of Trump's tariff policies in early April, focusing on the implications for various industries and the potential impact on U.S.-China trade relations [1][2]. Tariff Policy Implementation - Key tariff-related developments set to take effect in early April include the "America First Trade Policy" memorandum investigation, reciprocal tariffs, secondary tariffs on Venezuelan oil imports, and automobile tariffs [1][2]. - The "America First Trade Policy" memorandum, released on January 20, 2025, indicates a shift in Trump's negotiation strategy regarding trade relations with China, moving away from border security as the primary justification for tariffs [2]. Reciprocal Tariffs - The imposition of reciprocal tariffs will consider tariffs, turnover taxes, regulations, and non-tariff trade barriers [3]. - Targeted economies for these tariffs may include India, Brazil, Vietnam, South Korea, and certain sectors in the EU and Japan, as they have higher average tariff rates compared to the U.S. [3][4]. Industry Impact Analysis - The impact of tariffs on exports is non-linear, with industries facing higher cumulative tariff rates experiencing more significant declines in exports to the U.S. in the first two months of the year [5]. - Industries with cumulative tariff rates between 40% and 50%, such as leather goods, automobiles, and wooden products, saw an average export growth decline of 46.2 percentage points compared to the previous year [5]. Labor-Intensive Industries - Labor-intensive industries in China, such as toys, furniture, and footwear, have a high proportion of revenue from U.S. exports, making them more vulnerable to additional cost pressures from tariffs [6]. - The revenue share from U.S. exports for these labor-intensive sectors is notably high, with toys at 32.6%, furniture at 25.0%, and footwear at 24.3% [6]. Macro Economic Trends - The macroeconomic environment shows a decline in industrial enterprise revenue and profit growth in early 2025, with profit margins shifting towards lower-end industries [7]. - The decrease in profit margins is primarily attributed to falling profitability in the upstream mining sector, likely linked to declining coal prices [7].

[Table_MainInfo] 国内下游复苏向好，美国拟实施对等关税 ――金属行业周报 | 分析师： 张珂 | | SAC NO： S1150523120001 2025 2 | 年 | 月 | 18 | 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Table_Author] 证券分析师 | | Table_Summary] [投资要点： | | | | | | 张珂 | | | | | | | | 022-23839062 |  | 行业情况及产品价格走势初判 | | | | | | zhangke@bhzq.com | | 钢铁：随着元宵节后下游继续复工复产，需求有望继续恢复，钢价短期或得 | | | | | | [Table_Contactor] | | 到支撑，需关注宏观消息和事件的影响。 | | | | | | [Table_IndInvest] 行业评级 | | | | | | | | 钢铁 | 中性 | 铜：铜矿供应偏紧的局面将给铜价带来支撑；关税不确定性和贸易战风险对 | | | | | 铜价有压制，但市场对国内刺激宏观需求的预期利 ...