Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the textile and apparel industry, indicating a "Buy" recommendation for specific companies within the sector [2]. Core Insights - The textile and apparel sector outperformed the market, with the SW textile and apparel index rising by 4.2% from August 4 to August 8, surpassing the SW All A index by 2.3 percentage points [3]. - Recent industry data shows that the retail sales of clothing, shoes, and textiles totaled 742.6 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.1% [6]. - Exports of textiles and apparel reached 143.98 billion USD in the first half of 2025, a slight increase of 0.8% year-on-year, although June saw a decline in textile and apparel exports [29]. - Cotton prices have shown mixed trends, with domestic cotton prices decreasing by 0.4% while international cotton prices fell by 1.1% [31][33]. Summary by Sections Textile Sector - Companies like Huayi and Jiansheng reported profit declines in Q2 2025, indicating cautious ordering behavior in the brand supply chain. Huayi's profit margin decreased due to new factory efficiencies taking time to stabilize and weak retail performance from some old clients [6]. - Despite fluctuations in downstream orders, companies remain optimistic about future demand, particularly from new clients like Adidas, which is expected to support overall revenue growth [6]. - The report highlights the potential for recovery in quality textile manufacturing, especially with the ongoing U.S.-China tariff negotiations and domestic consumption improvements [7][8]. Apparel Sector - Adidas reported a 2.2% year-on-year revenue increase in Q2 2025, with significant growth in the Greater China region and a notable rise in net profit [9][10]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of high-end and cost-effective brands, with brands like Anta and Li Ning showing stable performance despite a challenging retail environment [11]. - The focus on domestic consumption recovery is crucial, with various local governments implementing measures to stimulate consumer spending [11]. Key Company Updates - Huayi Group's H1 2025 revenue was 12.66 billion yuan, a 10.4% increase, but net profit fell by 11.4% [21]. - Jiansheng Group's H1 2025 revenue was 1.17 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.2%, with a net profit decline of 14.5% [22]. Market Trends - The report notes a cautious but optimistic outlook for the textile and apparel industry, driven by potential recovery in domestic demand and strategic positioning of leading companies [6][7].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The weak US employment data has boosted the expectation of interest rate cuts, and the continuous gold - buying by central banks supports the prices of precious metals. The prices of precious metals are likely to rise and investors are advised to buy on dips, while being vigilant about the potential rebound of US consumer - end inflation caused by additional tariffs [4][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macroeconomic Data in the US - **Employment**: The number of non - farm payrolls in July dropped to 73,000, far lower than expected, and the data for May - June was revised down by 258,000. The unemployment rate in July was 4.2%, higher than the previous value. The average hourly wage rate in July was 3.9%, higher than expected and the previous value [4][43]. - **Inflation**: In June, the CPI and core CPI annual rates were 2.7% and 2.9% respectively, higher than expected and the previous value. The 1 - year and 5 - year inflation expectations in July were 4.4% and 3.6% respectively, lower than expected and the previous value [4][13]. - **Manufacturing and Services**: The ISM manufacturing PMI in July was 48, lower than expected and the previous value, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1, lower than the previous value and expected [34]. - **Housing**: The 15 - year and 30 - year mortgage fixed rates at the end of July decreased to 5.85% and 6.72% respectively. The total sales volume of new and existing homes in June decreased month - on - month [38][41]. - **Retail and Consumption**: The retail sales month - on - month rate in June was 0.6%, higher than the previous value and expected. The personal consumption expenditure month - on - month rate in June was flat with expectations but higher than the previous value [50][57]. - **Durable Goods**: The new orders for durable goods month - on - month rate in June was - 9.3%, higher than expected but lower than the previous value [53]. - **Debt and Finance**: The US outstanding public debt increased by $61.2 billion compared with last month. The Fed's daily overnight reverse repurchase scale was about $84.4 billion. The OFR financial stress index decreased [21][22][27]. 3.2 Central Bank Policies in Other Countries - **European Central Bank**: The eurozone's July CPI initial value increased by 2% year - on - year, and the GDP in the second quarter increased by 0.1% quarter - on - quarter, getting out of the technical recession. The market expects the ECB to cut interest rates at most once in the second half of the year. The ECB is reducing its balance sheet [61][63]. - **Bank of England**: The UK's CPI and core CPI annual rates in June were 3.6% and 3.7% respectively, higher than expected and the previous value. The Bank of England may cut interest rates only once before the end of 2025 [66]. - **Bank of Japan**: The Bank of Japan raised its core inflation forecast for 2025 to 2.7% and will reduce the quarterly government bond purchase scale from 400 billion yen to 200 billion yen in April 2026. The expectation of interest rate hikes before the end of 2025 has cooled [69]. 3.3 Precious Metals Market - **Geopolitical and Central Bank Buying**: The global geopolitical risk index decreased in July, but uncertainties remain. The People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves for the ninth consecutive month [72][75]. - **ETF and Futures Positions**: The US gold ETF volatility index increased. The non - commercial long - short position ratio of COMEX gold futures increased, while that of COMEX silver futures decreased [77][82][85]. - **Inventory**: The gold inventories in SHFE and COMEX increased, while the silver inventories in SHFE decreased and those in SGE and COMEX increased [88]. - **Price Ratios**: The "gold - silver ratio" in London and the US (Shanghai) is at a relatively high level, and the "gold - oil ratio" and "gold - copper ratio" are also high. Investors are advised to pay attention to short - term light - position short - selling opportunities of the "gold - silver ratio" and long - position opportunities of the "gold - oil ratio" and "gold - copper ratio" [91][94].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment rating for cotton is "oscillation", and for sugar is "oscillation with a downward bias" [2] Group 2: Core Views - **Cotton**: On Thursday, ICE U.S. cotton fell 0.72% to 66.36 cents per pound, and CF509 decreased 0.15% to 13,670 yuan per ton. The main contract's open interest decreased by 9,339 lots to 272,100 lots. The cotton arrival price in Xinjiang was 15,089 yuan per ton, up 6 yuan from the previous day, and the China Cotton Price Index for grade 3128B was 15,191 yuan per ton, up 13 yuan. Internationally, the macro - level is the focus, with rising expectations of a September interest rate cut and more than 2 cuts this year, and U.S. cotton prices are in low - level oscillation. Domestically, as the 09 contract approaches expiration, the main contract's open interest is decreasing, and the warehouse receipt cancellation speed has slightly increased. After macro - pricing, the market will focus on new cotton. New cotton is expected to have a good harvest with a low opening price, putting pressure on the 01 contract. However, the new - year cotton consumption is expected to be stable, and the inventory - to - sales ratio won't be high. Overall, sentiment is positive, and prices are supported by low spot inventory before new cotton is on the market. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate, and the 01 contract will oscillate in the short - term and be stronger in the medium - to - long - term [2] - **Sugar**: Brazil exported 3.5937 million tons of sugar and molasses in July, a 4.98% decrease from last year. Spot prices in China are falling. Raw sugar is weak with no new drivers, and the expected increase in production suppresses futures prices. In China, spot prices continue to decline, and processed sugar will put pressure on the market. The market is expected to remain weak [2] Group 3: Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 9 - 1 spread is - 165, down 5; the main contract basis is 1,521, up 33. The Xinjiang spot price is 15,089, up 6, and the national spot price is 15,191, up 13 [3] - **Sugar**: The 9 - 1 spread is 67, up 5; the main contract basis is 323, down 4. The Nanning spot price is 5,970, down 30, and the Liuzhou spot price is 5,990, down 20 [3] Group 4: Market Information - On August 7, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 8,329, down 135 from the previous day, with 348 valid forecasts [4] - On August 7, the cotton arrival prices in different regions were: 15,089 yuan/ton in Xinjiang, 15,220 yuan/ton in Henan, 15,169 yuan/ton in Shandong, and 15,265 yuan/ton in Zhejiang [4] - On August 7, the yarn comprehensive load was 49.3 (unchanged), the yarn comprehensive inventory was 30 (unchanged), the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 47.8 (up 0.1), and the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 33.7 (down 0.1) [4] - On August 7, the sugar spot prices were 5,970 yuan/ton in Nanning (down 30) and 5,990 yuan/ton in Liuzhou (down 20) [4] - On August 7, the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 18,615, down 187 from the previous day, with 0 valid forecasts [5] Group 5: Chart Analysis - There are charts showing the closing price, basis, 9 - 1 spread, 1% tariff quota domestic - foreign spread, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, and price index of cotton; as well as the closing price, basis, 9 - 1 spread, and warehouse receipts and valid forecasts of sugar [7][9][11][13][16][17][19] Group 6: Research Team - Zhang Xiaojin, the director of resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focuses on the sugar industry [21] - Zhang Linglu, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is responsible for research on urea, soda ash, and glass futures [22] - Sun Chengzhen, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys [23]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: ★★, suggesting a strategy of buying on dips [1] - Silver: ★★, recommending buying on rebounds [1] - Copper: ★★, advising to try buying on dips [1] - Zinc: ★★, suggesting selling on rebounds [1] - Lead: ★, indicating that rebounds are under pressure [1] - Tin: ★★, showing rebounds are under pressure [1] - Aluminum: ★, suggesting rebounds are under pressure [1] - Nickel: ★★, indicating rebounds are under pressure [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★, showing it is under pressure [1] - Polysilicon: ★, recommending a cautious bullish view [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★, suggesting a bullish view [1] Core Views of the Report - Precious metals like gold and silver are influenced by multiple factors such as US data supporting higher interest - rate cut expectations, central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical events, maintaining high levels. Long - term strategic allocation of gold is recommended, and silver also has an upward long - term trend [1][2] - Copper is affected by copper concentrate disruptions and a weak US dollar, which help it stop falling and rebound. However, the off - season demand and inventory accumulation limit the rebound space. Long - term optimism remains [1][7] - Zinc shows an external - strong and internal - weak situation. Overseas, there are issues like concentrated zinc warehouse receipts, while domestic demand is weak. Long - term, supply increases and demand decreases [1][10] - Aluminum's price rebound is under pressure due to insufficient terminal demand and inventory accumulation [1][14] - Nickel's price rebound is under pressure because of weak downstream transactions and inventory pressure [1][18] - Lithium carbonate's fundamentals have marginally improved, with total inventory starting to decline after continuous accumulation. There is a supply hype expectation, and it is recommended to try buying on dips [1][22] Summary by Variety Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Gold prices remain high due to factors such as the expected meeting between Putin and Trump, US data supporting higher interest - rate cut expectations, and continuous central bank gold purchases [2] - **Basic Logic**: US employment is weakening, but inflation expectations are rising. Some countries' stances on tariffs are changing, and central banks are continuing to buy gold. The long - term bullish logic of gold remains unchanged [2] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gold has clear support around 770 in the short - term. Silver is in a range of 9100 - 9350, and long - term buying is supported by fundamentals and market trends [3] Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper fluctuated narrowly overnight, first rising and then falling [6] - **Industrial Logic**: There have been continuous disruptions in copper concentrates, and overseas smelters are under maintenance. Domestic copper smelting production has increased, but it is the off - season for demand, and inventories are accumulating [6] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait for copper to fully correct and then try buying on dips. Long - term, be bullish on copper. The range for Shanghai copper is [77500, 79500], and for LME copper is [9550, 9750] dollars per ton [7] Zinc - **Market Review**: LME zinc has stood above the 2800 mark, while Shanghai zinc fluctuated narrowly [9] - **Industrial Logic**: Zinc concentrate supply is abundant in 2025, and domestic refined zinc production is expected to increase. However, demand is weak due to high temperatures, floods, and the off - season [9] - **Strategy Recommendation**: For short - term, take profit on previous short positions and wait and see. Long - term, look for opportunities to short on rallies. The range for Shanghai zinc is [22200, 22800], and for LME zinc is [2750, 2850] dollars per ton [10] Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices rebounded in the short - term, while alumina rebounded and then declined [12] - **Industrial Logic**: The cost of electrolytic aluminum has decreased, and inventories are rising. The demand side is weak. For alumina, overseas bauxite shipments are smooth, and inventories are accumulating [13] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Sell on short - term rebounds of Shanghai aluminum, paying attention to inventory accumulation during the off - season. The main operating range is [20000 - 20900] [14] Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices' rebounds were under pressure, and stainless steel rebounded and then declined [16] - **Industrial Logic**: The price of nickel ore in the Philippines is falling, and domestic nickel supply - demand conditions have improved limitedly. Stainless steel's production cut effect is weakening, and inventory pressure has reappeared in the off - season [17] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Sell on rebounds of nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to downstream inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [119000 - 122000] [18] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 increased in position and rose by more than 5% [20] - **Industrial Logic**: The total inventory has stopped accumulating, and production has decreased. The compliance risk of lithium mining licenses in Jiangxi is a key point. The supply - demand situation may improve in August [21] - **Strategy Recommendation**: There is still an expectation of supply speculation. Try buying on dips in the range of [715000 - 73600] [22]

Core Views - The report indicates that despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term trend remains a slow bull market for A-shares, supported by moderate trading volume and a healthy overall market trend [3][9] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on high-performing sectors while avoiding stocks with questionable performance or negative expectations [3][4] Market Overview - On Thursday, the three major indices opened with fluctuations and subsequently fell, but the banking sector provided support, leading to a rebound in the Shanghai Composite Index, which reached a new annual high of 3639.67 points [2][8] - The market showed divergence, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext did not follow suit, indicating internal market discrepancies that need further digestion [2][8] Trading Volume and Trends - Recent trading volumes have been increasing, with daily volumes reaching 1.5 trillion yuan on Monday, 1.6 trillion yuan on Tuesday, 1.7 trillion yuan on Wednesday, and over 1.8 trillion yuan on Thursday [3][9] - The overall market trend remains positive, with a healthy upward trajectory and orderly rotation among sectors, which is beneficial for the formation of a slow bull market [3][9] Sector Analysis - The semiconductor sector has shown significant growth, with a 10.10% increase in 2023, driven by national policy support and rising global demand for AI and high-performance computing [6] - Consumer stocks, particularly in beauty care, agriculture, and dairy, have become active, with domestic consumption expected to be a key driver of economic recovery in 2025 [7] - Rare earth permanent magnet stocks surged, supported by China's dominant position in global rare earth production and recent price increases announced by major producers [7] Future Outlook - The report anticipates a "slow bull" market pattern for A-shares, driven by favorable tariff negotiations, continuous policy support, and improved liquidity conditions [3][9] - Investors are advised to maintain a rational approach, focusing on sectors with clear performance potential such as semiconductor, AI, and healthcare, while being cautious of stocks that have seen excessive prior gains [3][9]

Export Performance - In July, China's export year-on-year growth rate recorded 7.2%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points from the previous month, but the month-on-month growth rate is below the median of the past five years[3] - The rebound in export growth is primarily due to a lower base from the same period last year, while the month-on-month growth rate remains below the five-year median[6] - Exports to the US have decreased, but support from European recovery and deepening cooperation with Latin America and Africa has bolstered exports[7] Import Performance - China's import year-on-year growth rate in July exceeded expectations at 4.1%, up 3 percentage points from the previous month, with month-on-month growth significantly above the five-year average[3] - The increase in imports is driven by continuous domestic production expansion and a notable drop in commodity prices from June, stimulating higher imports of energy and industrial raw materials[6] - Specific imports such as copper saw significant increases, with copper ore rising by 33.1% and unwrought copper by 11.3%[16] Economic Outlook - Despite a downward trend in export centrality, the contribution to economic growth is expected to remain stable, supported by European fiscal expansion and potential unexpected rate cuts by the Federal Reserve[4] - Risks include potential underperformance in domestic economic recovery, unexpected declines in demand from developed countries, and uncertainties in import-export policies[23]

Group 1 - Swiss politicians are urging FIFA President Gianni Infantino to leverage his relationship with President Trump to address the newly imposed 39% tariffs on Swiss goods by the U.S. [1][3] - The Swiss Federal President and Vice President recently visited Washington in an attempt to prevent the tariffs from taking effect but were unsuccessful, leading to public dissatisfaction and calls for more creative negotiation strategies [1][4] - Swiss Federal Council member Roland Bichsel and former diplomat Thomas Boller believe Infantino's long-standing friendship with Trump could provide Switzerland with crucial access to the U.S. administration [3] Group 2 - The new tariffs, announced by Trump on July 31, will affect 69 trading partners and are set to begin seven days after the executive order is issued, with the 39% rate being the highest for Switzerland [4] - The Swiss economy, which is heavily export-oriented, is at risk of significant damage due to these tariffs, potentially threatening thousands of jobs [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rebound in China's export and import growth rates in July, highlighting the factors contributing to these changes and the outlook for the second half of the year [2][3][17]. Export Growth - In July, China's export growth rate recorded a year-on-year increase of 7.2%, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous month, although the month-on-month growth was below the median of the past five years [2][3]. - The rebound in exports is primarily attributed to a lower base from the previous year, as well as economic recovery in Europe and deepening cooperation with Latin America and Africa [3][8]. - Exports to most regions increased, with notable growth to Africa (42.5%) and Latin America (7.7%), while exports to the U.S. decreased by 21.6% [8]. Import Growth - China's import growth rate in July was 4.1%, a significant increase of 3 percentage points from the previous month, and the month-on-month growth was also notably higher than the five-year average [11]. - The increase in imports is driven by ongoing domestic production expansion and a significant drop in commodity prices compared to June, leading to higher imports of energy and industrial raw materials, particularly crude oil and copper [11][14]. - Imports from resource countries saw a notable increase of over 10%, with copper imports rising significantly [11][14]. Trade Surplus - China's trade surplus in July was $98.24 billion, which has narrowed compared to the previous month [17]. - Despite a downward trend in export growth, the contribution to economic growth is expected to remain stable due to various supportive factors, including European fiscal expansion and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [17].

特朗普：对等关税将在8月7日晚午夜生效。 https://t.co/00WhsAeuK9外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):根据特朗普最新的行政令，新关税要到8月7日才会生效（新税率适用于此后进入消费或从仓库提取以供消费的货物），而不是之前的8月1日，再次留下关税谈判的时间窗口。白宫官员也表示，希望在新的关税实施日期8月7日之前，与各国达成更多协议。 https://t.co/UAGTqkmETQ ...

Group 1 - The US dollar index continues to weaken due to a lackluster US Treasury auction and dovish comments from the Federal Reserve, which supports rising gold prices [1] - COMEX gold futures prices experienced a slight decline of 0.08%, closing at $3431.8 per ounce, after initially dropping to $3411 [1] - The US Treasury auction of $42 billion in 10-year bonds was weak, with a bid-to-cover ratio indicating reduced demand, particularly from buyers outside the US [1] Group 2 - Federal Reserve officials, including Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari, suggest that a slowdown in the US economy may warrant interest rate cuts, with expectations of two cuts by the end of the year [1] - Market expectations for a shift in monetary policy are heightened, influenced by comments from Fed Governor Cook regarding non-farm payroll data adjustments [2] - The potential appointment of a new Federal Reserve chair by Trump could further impact market sentiment and monetary policy direction [2]