Price Performance - CPI shows a continuous decline in pork prices, while fruit and vegetable prices are on the rise, with a recent increase of 0.71%[2] - PPI indicates rising prices for crude oil and non-ferrous metals, with WTI prices increasing by 4.39%[2] Domestic Macro - Demand Side - Consumer demand is slightly cooling, with retail sales of passenger cars declining by 3.8% year-on-year[3] - External demand is also weakening, as indicated by a 16.9% month-on-month drop in the Baltic Dry Index (BDI)[3] Domestic Macro - Production Side - Production continues to decline, with a decrease of 1.53 percentage points in the industrial production index[3] - Real estate and infrastructure investment is also on a downward trend, with a decline of 2.46 percentage points[3] Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy for next year is expected to remain proactive, with a focus on stimulating economic growth[4] - The recent Central Economic Work Conference has set a relatively positive tone for future economic policies[4] Monetary and Liquidity Conditions - The yield curve for government bonds has slightly shifted downwards, indicating a potential easing of monetary policy[4] - SHIBOR rates have shown minor fluctuations, with the 7-day SHIBOR at 1.4510%, up by 4 basis points[4] International Macro and Market - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, with a dovish tone from Chairman Powell[4] - Market expectations indicate a potential for further rate cuts, with probabilities for rates below 2.5% increasing significantly[4]

Group 1 - International institutions such as the World Bank, IMF, and ADB have raised their growth forecasts for China's economy for next year, with the World Bank increasing by 0.4 percentage points, IMF by 0.2 percentage points, and ADB by 0.1 percentage points, indicating a consensus in their updated judgment logic [1][3] - China's economic resilience has proven stronger than many anticipated at the beginning of the year, supported by sustained fiscal efforts and loose monetary policy, which have kept consumption and investment active under pressure [3] - The diversification of export markets has provided more stable support for external demand, prompting international institutions to reassess their growth expectations for the coming year [3] Group 2 - The World Bank's chief economist for China, Melissa, believes that China's long-term growth potential remains considerable, with key factors being technological innovation and productivity improvement, suggesting that the potential growth rate is not declining as rapidly as feared [3] - IMF President Georgieva emphasized the importance of domestic demand, noting that China is enhancing consumption stability through targeted policy measures such as improving the social security system and providing childcare subsidies, which will positively impact mid-term growth quality [3] - The expectation of improved certainty in the operating environment is seen as beneficial for both consumer spending and corporate investment, which will support the financial sector, small and medium enterprises, and asset allocation needs [3][4]

Economic Policy Overview - The central economic work conference emphasized maintaining a proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy to enhance economic growth quality and reasonable growth quantity[5] - Fiscal deficit and total debt levels are expected to remain similar to this year, indicating sustained fiscal support[5] - Monetary policy will focus on stabilizing economic growth and ensuring reasonable price recovery, utilizing tools like interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio adjustments[5] Domestic Demand and Investment - Domestic demand is prioritized as the main task for next year, with a focus on expanding consumption and stabilizing investment[6] - The conference highlighted the need to implement consumption-boosting actions and to continue policies like trade-in programs to stimulate consumer spending[6] - Investment strategies will include increasing central budget investments and directing funds towards key areas such as technology innovation and support for small and medium enterprises[6] Risk Management and Structural Reforms - The conference identified real estate and local government debt as key risk areas, with strategies to stabilize the real estate market and manage local government debt risks[7] - Emphasis on creating a unified national market and enhancing the consistency of macroeconomic policies, including both existing and new policies[6] - The need for a robust management mechanism for expectations was also highlighted to boost social confidence[6] Long-term Economic Goals - The overarching goal remains to build a strong domestic market and enhance the integration of domestic and international trade[12] - The focus on innovation and technology is set to drive new productivity, with initiatives to establish international technology innovation centers in key regions[6] - The commitment to green transformation and sustainable development is underscored, with plans for energy efficiency and carbon reduction initiatives[12]

Group 1 - The important meeting signals a shift in fiscal policy from "increasing deficit and intensity" to "stabilizing deficit and focusing on implementation" [2] - Monetary policy now incorporates "economic growth" and "price recovery" as core KPIs, indicating a clear focus on stabilizing growth and promoting inflation [2] - The emphasis on optimizing internal demand structure highlights the importance of consumer potential and stabilizing investment [2] Group 2 - The meeting underscores the significance of domestic consumption as a primary driver of economic growth, with expectations for continued encouragement of consumption policies in 2026 [3] - Specific A-share ETFs related to internal demand include Food and Beverage ETF (515170.SH), Tourism ETF (562510.SH), Agricultural 50 ETF (516810.SH), and Consumer Electronics ETF (159732.SZ) [3] - The focus on "anti-involution" and state-owned enterprise reform is expected to be a policy priority in 2026 [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was weak yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products declined significantly. The steel prices are expected to fluctuate within the bottom range. With the approaching winter storage, attention should be paid to winter storage policies and price guidance [1][2]. - The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate widely. Recently, there have been many disturbing news, so attention should be paid to the risk of price fluctuations [5]. - The overall attitude towards the black - building materials sector and domestic policies remains relatively optimistic. Future trends of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon are mainly led by the black - building materials sector and issues such as manganese ore price and electricity price [9]. - The price of industrial silicon is expected to be weak, with support at 8100 - 8300 yuan/ton [12]. - The polysilicon market is in a state of tug - of - war between reality and expectation. The price is expected to fluctuate widely within a range after the monthly spread returns [15]. - For the glass market, a bearish view is recommended in the absence of unexpected changes [18]. - The soda ash market is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend in the short term, and a cautiously bearish view is maintained [20]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products 1. Rebar - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3069 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan/ton (-1.53%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 40,679 tons, with no change. The main contract's open interest increased by 87,857 lots to 1.602075 million lots. The Tianjin aggregated price was 3160 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; the Shanghai aggregated price was 3270 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Views**: This week, the rebar production decreased significantly and the inventory continued to decline, showing a neutral - to - stable performance overall. The terminal demand remains weak, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate within the bottom range. Attention should be paid to winter storage policies and price guidance [1][2]. 2. Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3238 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan/ton (-1.34%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 109,014 tons, with no change. The main contract's open interest increased by 42,440 lots to 1.148348 million lots. The Lecong aggregated price was 3260 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton; the Shanghai aggregated price was 3250 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Views**: The production of hot - rolled coils continued to decline, apparent consumption decreased slightly, and it was more difficult to reduce inventory. The factory inventory increased this week. The terminal demand remains weak, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate within the bottom range. Attention should be paid to winter storage policies and price guidance [1][2]. Iron Ore - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the iron ore main contract (I2605) was 757.00 yuan/ton, with a change of -1.56% (-12.00). The open interest decreased by 1378 lots to 468,100 lots. The weighted open interest was 894,100 lots. The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 781 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 72.41 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 8.73% [4]. - **Strategy Views**: Overseas iron ore shipments increased slightly in the latest period. The daily average pig iron production has fallen below 2.292 million tons. The port inventory continued to increase, and the steel mill inventory was recently depleted. The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate widely, and attention should be paid to the risk of price fluctuations due to many disturbing news [5]. Ferromanganese and Ferrosilicon 1. Ferromanganese (Silicomanganese) - **Market Quotes**: On December 11th, the main contract of ferromanganese (SM603) rose in the morning and then weakened in the afternoon, closing down 0.21% at 5712 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, with a conversion to the futures - equivalent price of 5890 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 178 yuan/ton over the futures price [8]. - **Strategy Views**: The supply - demand pattern of ferromanganese is still not ideal, but most of these factors have been factored into the price. Future trends are mainly influenced by the black - building materials sector and the price of manganese ore. Attention should be paid to possible sudden changes in the manganese ore market [9]. 2. Ferrosilicon - **Market Quotes**: The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) rose more than 1% in the morning and then fell back, closing down 0.29% at 5418 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5560 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a premium of 142 yuan/ton over the futures price [8]. - **Strategy Views**: The supply - demand of ferrosilicon is basically balanced. Future trends are mainly influenced by the black - building materials sector and the electricity price. Attention should be paid to possible sudden changes in the manganese ore market [9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon 1. Industrial Silicon - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the industrial silicon main contract (SI2601) was 8285 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.42% (+35). The weighted contract's open interest decreased by 11,179 lots to 495,222 lots. The spot price of 553 non - oxygen - blown industrial silicon in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main contract was 915 yuan/ton; the price of 421 was 9650 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis of the main contract was 565 yuan/ton after conversion [11]. - **Strategy Views**: The industrial silicon price is expected to be weak, with support at 8100 - 8300 yuan/ton. The production in Southwest China is expected to decline further in December, and overall demand is slightly weak [12]. 2. Polysilicon - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the polysilicon main contract (PS2605) was 55,765 yuan/ton, with a change of +2.13% (+1165). The weighted contract's open interest increased by 6228 lots to 265,208 lots. The average spot price of N - type granular silicon was 50 yuan/kg, unchanged; N - type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, unchanged; N - type re - feed material was 52.3 yuan/kg, unchanged, and the basis of the main contract was - 3465 yuan/ton [13]. - **Strategy Views**: The polysilicon production is expected to continue to decline in December, but the decline may be limited. The inventory accumulation pressure before the Spring Festival is difficult to relieve. The price is expected to fluctuate widely within a range after the monthly spread returns [15]. Glass and Soda Ash 1. Glass - **Market Quotes**: On Thursday at 15:00, the glass main contract closed at 964 yuan/ton, down 2.03% (-20). The North China large - plate price was 1050 yuan, unchanged; the Central China price was 1110 yuan, unchanged. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 58.227 million boxes, down 1.215 million boxes (-2.04%). The top 20 long - position holders reduced 11,700 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders increased 9059 short positions [17]. - **Strategy Views**: In November, many glass production lines were shut down for maintenance. The real - estate industry still has downward pressure, and a bearish view is recommended in the absence of unexpected changes [18]. 2. Soda Ash - **Market Quotes**: On Thursday at 15:00, the soda ash main contract closed at 1094 yuan/ton, down 2.76% (-31). The heavy - soda price in Shahe was 1113 yuan, up 9 yuan. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.4943 million tons, down 44,300 tons (-2.04%), including 790,500 tons of heavy - soda inventory, down 20,300 tons, and 703,800 tons of light - soda inventory, down 24,000 tons. The top 20 long - position holders reduced 61,727 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 56,952 short positions [19]. - **Strategy Views**: The overall supply pressure of soda ash is still large, and demand is relatively flat. The spot price has limited room for further decline. The 2.8 - million - ton capacity of the Alxa Phase II project is expected to put pressure on the market. The market is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend in the short term, and a cautiously bearish view is maintained [20].

Index Performance - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed at 25,541, up 0.4% for the day and 27.3% year-to-date (YTD) [2] - The MSCI China index increased by 0.2%, with a YTD growth of 29.3% [2] - The KOSPI index showed significant growth, up 72.3% YTD, closing at 4,135 [2] Commodity Price Performance - Brent Crude oil prices rose by 1.2% to $63 per barrel, but are down 12.1% YTD [3] - Gold prices increased by 0.5% to $4,229 per ounce, reflecting a substantial YTD rise of 61.1% [3] - Copper prices decreased by 1.3% to $11,487 per ton, with a YTD increase of 31.0% [3] Key Macro Indicators - The US FOMC raised the upper bound of the interest rate to 4.0% from a consensus of 3.8% [4] - China's retail sales growth was reported at 2.9% YoY, matching expectations [4] - The surveyed jobless rate in China remained stable at 5.1% [4] Inflation Insights - China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.7% YoY in November, up from 0.2% in October, driven by recovering food prices [7] - Core CPI growth remained steady at 1.2%, indicating limited expansion in other sectors [7] - CPI growth is expected to recover to 0.5% in 2026, with core CPI increasing from 0.7% to 0.9% [8]

Group 1 - The World Bank's latest economic report indicates that China's GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year as of the third quarter of 2025, supported by loose fiscal and monetary policies that bolster domestic consumption and investment [1] - The World Bank has raised its economic growth forecasts for China for 2025 and 2026 by 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous report [1] - Future economic growth in China is expected to rely more on domestic demand, with structural reforms in the social security system and a more predictable business environment being crucial for boosting confidence and achieving resilient, sustainable growth [1] Group 2 - The report analyzes the relationship between high savings rates and consumer behavior, noting that nearly half of Chinese residents' savings are invested in real estate, with about a quarter in bank deposits [2] - The preference for low-risk bank deposits is influenced by precautionary savings needs and limited long-term financial products, compounded by recent declines in housing prices and cautious income expectations [2] - The World Bank suggests that China's financial system, particularly non-bank financial institutions, can play a greater role in promoting consumer spending, and enhancing the depth and transparency of capital markets will help reduce precautionary savings and shift the economy towards consumption-driven growth [2]

Core Viewpoint - The current low price levels are closely related to the relatively weak domestic demand, and the next phase will focus on boosting internal demand and stabilizing prices, which will positively impact the stabilization of CPI [1][2]. Group 1: CPI Trends - In November, the national Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.7% year-on-year, the highest increase since March 2024, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5 percentage points [2]. - Throughout the first eleven months of the year, there were six months with negative year-on-year CPI growth, leading to an average CPI that remained flat compared to the previous year [2]. - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 1.2% year-on-year in November, maintaining a growth rate above 1% for three consecutive months [2][3]. Group 2: Food Prices Impact - The rise in food prices was a significant factor contributing to the increase in CPI in November, with seasonal growth in food prices driving the year-on-year CPI growth [3]. - The impact of food prices on CPI shifted from a negative contribution of -0.54 percentage points in the previous month to a positive contribution of 0.04 percentage points in November [3]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - Analysts caution that the recent rise in CPI should not be oversimplified as a sign of economic recovery, as the supply-demand relationship indicates a significant imbalance with supply being forced to contract [4]. - The overall economic cycle is characterized by demand contraction leading to supply adjustments and declining economic growth, which further exacerbates demand contraction [4]. - The core CPI's upward trend suggests some improvement in domestic consumption demand, but the foundation for sustained improvement remains fragile, requiring ongoing policy support [4]. Group 4: Policy Implications - The adjustment of the CPI growth target from around 3% to 2% reflects a more realistic approach given the current economic conditions, aiming to avoid deflation [5]. - The lower CPI target is seen as a benchmark rather than a ceiling, indicating a policy effort to bridge the gap between nominal and real GDP growth [5]. - Looking ahead to 2026, maintaining stable price growth will remain a key macroeconomic policy goal, with various initiatives expected to support CPI recovery [5].

Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in November increased by 0.7% year-on-year, marking the highest level in 2023 and since March 2024 [1] - Urban CPI rose by 0.7%, while rural CPI increased by 0.4%. Food prices saw a 0.2% rise, and non-food prices increased by 0.8% [1] - The increase in CPI is attributed to seasonal price rebounds in food items, particularly fresh vegetables, which contributed significantly to the CPI's upward movement [2][4] Group 2 - Core CPI remains resilient despite a slight month-on-month decline of 0.1%, maintaining a year-on-year growth rate of 1.2% [2] - The rise in core CPI is supported by increasing gold prices and the effects of domestic demand expansion policies, which have led to price increases in household goods and clothing [2][4] - The potential for sustained improvement in CPI relies on continued policy support, particularly in stimulating consumption in sectors like dining and tourism [4] Group 3 - The Asian economy is expected to shift towards a more balanced and sustainable growth model by 2025, with inflation projected to decline significantly due to falling food prices [3] - A low inflation environment in 2026 may support a continued easing of monetary policy across several Asian countries, including China, which could create investment opportunities [3] - The main macroeconomic risk for Asia is not high inflation but the combination of deflationary pressures and high real policy rates, which could hinder economic recovery [3]

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量点评 2025 年 12 月 10 日 11 月通胀点评 内需依然偏弱，关注外需波动 11 月 CPI 同比增速符合万得一致预期，PPI 同比增速略低于万得一致预期； CPI 同比上行主要靠食品价格，特别是鲜菜价格的拉动，服务价格环比出现 季节性回落；PPI 环比增速连续两个月增长，但 11 月同比降幅较 10 月小幅 扩大，主要受输入性因素影响。 相关研究报告 《政治局会议点评》20251209 《稳中求进、提质增效》20251208 《全面布局"十五五"》20251208 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 宏观经济 证券分析师：张晓娇 xiaojiao.zhang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300514010002 证券分析师：朱启兵 (8610)66229359 Qibing.Zhu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300516090001 11 月 CPI 环比下降 0.1%，同比增长 0.7%，核心 CPI 同比增长 1.2%，服 务价格同比增长 0.7%，消费品价格同比增长 0.6%。 ...