制造业PMI
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12.1日报
Ge Long Hui· 2025-12-01 12:24
Group 1 - The strongest player in the Chinese internet sector is ByteDance, which is outperforming all other companies, while competitors are engaged in internal conflicts instead of uniting against Douyin [1] - Precious metals related stocks have surged, and it is difficult to imagine a significant pullback during the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle [1] - The manufacturing PMI for November is at 49.9, indicating slight contraction, but there is a positive note with a significant increase in export orders [1] - Dongfang Zhenxuan's stock has surged as the founder takes on a personal role, highlighting the market's divided views on the company's value [1] - Meituan's stock fluctuated but did not experience significant declines throughout the day [1] - Xiaomi's app will introduce a feature for purchasing available vehicles without waiting, indicating an improvement in inventory levels, which may affect stock prices [1] Group 2 - The first trading day of December saw a noticeable increase in trading volume, indicating institutional activity, although this led to a high open and subsequent decline [2] - Overall market performance was positive, with a recovery in the afternoon providing a boost to many investors [2]
11月制造业PMI回升至49.2%,股指期货偏强震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-12-01 10:45
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report On December 1, the main contracts of stock index futures opened slightly higher, then encountered resistance after rising, and oscillated upward. In November, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month; the composite PMI output index was 49.7%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. China's economic prosperity level was generally stable, which would help the short - term upward movement of stock index futures. The main contracts of stock index futures were expected to oscillate strongly during the day and attack resistance levels [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Outlook Points - On December 1, the main contracts of stock index futures IF2512, IH2512, IC2512, and IM2512 opened slightly higher, then encountered resistance after rising, and oscillated upward. China's economic prosperity level was generally stable, which would help the short - term upward movement of stock index futures [2]. - IF2512 was expected to oscillate strongly during the day, attacking resistance levels of 4550 and 4565 points (4565 points had relatively strong short - term resistance), with support levels at 4511 and 4492 points (4492 points had strong support) [2][8]. - IH2512 was expected to oscillate strongly during the day, attacking resistance levels of 2990 and 3000 points (3000 points had relatively strong resistance), with support levels at 2963 and 2952 points (2952 points had strong short - term support) [2][9]. - IC2512 was expected to oscillate strongly during the day, attacking resistance levels of 7054 and 7112 points (7112 points had relatively strong short - term resistance), with support levels at 6974 and 6925 points (6925 points had strong short - term support) [2][10]. - IM2512 was expected to oscillate strongly during the day, attacking resistance levels of 7322 and 7365 points (7365 points had relatively strong medium - and short - term resistance), with support levels at 7260 and 7211 points (7211 points had strong short - term support) [3][10]. Macroeconomic and Stock Market News - In November, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month; the composite PMI output index was 49.7%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. China's economic prosperity level was generally stable [2][4]. - From January to October, the total operating income of state - owned enterprises was 683529.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%; the total profit was 34214.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 3.0%. As of the end of October, the asset - liability ratio of state - owned enterprises was 65.2%, up 0.4 percentage points year - on - year [4]. - In October, China's exports of goods and services in international payments were 3416 billion US dollars, imports were 2625 billion US dollars, with a surplus of 792 billion US dollars. At the end of June, China's external securities investment assets (excluding reserve assets) were 16942 billion US dollars, including 10763 billion US dollars in equity investment and 6179 billion US dollars in bond investment [4]. - The China National Space Administration had recently established a commercial space department, and related businesses were gradually being carried out, marking that China's commercial space industry had a full - time regulatory agency, which would continue to promote the high - quality development of China's commercial space, and the entire industrial chain was expected to benefit [5]. - The US Secretary of State Rubio said after the new round of US - Ukraine negotiations that the talks with Ukraine were "fruitful", but there was still much work to be done. He also said that Russia would play a central role in any agreement to end the conflict with Ukraine. The US government would strengthen diplomatic efforts in the next week, and the US special envoy for the Middle East, Witkoff, was expected to go to Moscow for further talks [5]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission solicited public opinions on the "Measures for the Implementation of Supervision and Administration Measures in the Securities and Futures Markets (Draft for Comment)". The "Measures" clearly listed 14 commonly used measures such as ordering corrections, regulatory talks, issuing warning letters, and ordering regular reports, and used "other supervision and administration measures stipulated by laws, administrative regulations, and CSRC regulations" as a catch - all provision [7]. - On November 28, China Securities Index Co., Ltd. announced regular adjustments to the constituent stocks of multiple indices such as the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000. The Shanghai Stock Exchange and China Securities Index Co., Ltd. decided to adjust the constituent stocks of indices such as the SSE 50 and STAR 50, and the adjustments would take effect after the market closed on December 12. The Shenzhen Stock Exchange announced that it would conduct regular adjustments to the constituent stocks of indices such as the Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, Shenzhen 100, and ChiNext 50 on December 15 [7]. Technical Analysis and Market Outlook - Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis such as the golden section line, horizontal line, and moving average, the market trend of the main futures contracts on the day was expected as follows: - On December 1, the main contract IF2512 of the CSI 300 stock index futures opened slightly higher, then encountered resistance after rising, and oscillated upward. At the end of the morning session, it closed at 4539.4 points, up 0.72%. It failed to break through the 4550 - point resistance, with obvious support at the 4511.2 - point support since September 4. It broke through the 10 - day moving average resistance but failed to break through the 60 - day moving average resistance, and continued to rise in the short term [7]. - The main contract IH2512 of the SSE 50 stock index futures opened slightly higher, first declined and then rose, encountered resistance after rising, and oscillated slightly upward. At the end of the morning session, it closed at 2973.6 points, up 0.33%. It failed to break through the resistance at the high point of 2986.4 points on November 27, with obvious support at the closing price of 2963.2 points on November 28. It broke through the support and resistance of the 10 - day moving average but failed to break through the 60 - day moving average resistance, and the support of the 5 - day moving average was regained. It continued to rise slightly in the short term, but the upward movement was a bit weak [8]. - The main contract IC2512 of the CSI 500 stock index futures opened slightly higher, first declined and then rose, encountered resistance after rising, and oscillated upward. At the end of the morning session, it closed at 7028.2 points, up 0.83%. It failed to break through the resistance at the medium - and short - term low point of 7053.8 points since September 4, with obvious support at the closing price of 6974.2 points on November 28. It failed to effectively break through the 60 - day moving average resistance and continued to rise in the short term [9]. - The main contract IM2512 of the CSI 1000 stock index futures opened slightly higher, first declined and then rose, encountered resistance after rising, and oscillated slightly upward. At the end of the morning session, it closed at 7300.2 points, up 0.70%. It failed to effectively break through the short - term resistance of 7321.6 points since October 9, and the support of the closing price of 7260.8 points on November 28 was regained. It failed to effectively break through the resistance of the 40 - day and 20 - day moving averages, with obvious support from the 60 - day moving average. It continued to rise slightly in the short term [10]. - The main contract of the stock index futures IF in December 2025 was expected to oscillate widely, with support levels at 4426 and 4307 points and resistance levels at 4690 and 4741 points [10]. - The main contract of the stock index futures IH in December 2025 was expected to oscillate widely, with support levels at 2908 and 2872 points and resistance levels at 3030 and 3080 points [11]. - The main contract of the stock index futures IC in December 2025 was expected to oscillate widely, with support levels at 6650 and 6565 points and resistance levels at 7395 and 7470 points [11]. - The main contract of the stock index futures IM in December 2025 was expected to oscillate widely, with support levels at 6976 and 6850 points and resistance levels at 7500 and 7600 points [11].
利率周报(2025.11.24-2025.11.30):制造业PMI小幅反弹,企业利润承压-20251201
Hua Yuan Zheng Quan· 2025-12-01 10:42
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Q4 economic downward pressure may rise. The manufacturing PMI rebounded in November, but corporate profits may continue to be under pressure. The traditional investment - driven economic model may be unsustainable. Consumption and exports may face pressure. Policy rate cuts and incremental tools in the next six months may be key support measures [2][75]. - The current bond market has prominent allocation value, and bond yields may decline in a volatile manner. The report is bullish on the bond market, predicting that the 10Y Treasury yield will return to around 1.65%, the 30Y Treasury to 1.9%, and the 5Y large - bank secondary capital bonds to 1.9% (all referring to bonds without VAT) [4][76]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro News - In November, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, a month - on - month increase of 0.2pct. The non - manufacturing business activity index was 49.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6pct. The comprehensive PMI output index was 49.7%, down 0.3pct from the previous month, indicating increased economic growth pressure [4][12]. - In October, the profits of large - scale industrial enterprises decreased by 5.5% year - on - year, and the revenue decreased by 3.3% year - on - year. From January to October, the total profits of large - scale industrial enterprises reached 5.95 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.9% [4][21]. - On November 25, the central bank conducted a 1000 - billion - yuan MLF operation, with a net investment of 100 billion yuan in November, the ninth consecutive month of increased roll - over [4][22]. 3.2 Medium - term High - frequency Data 3.2.1 Consumption - As of November 23, the daily average retail volume of passenger cars decreased by 6.6% year - on - year, and the daily average wholesale volume increased by 2.2% year - on - year. As of November 27, the 7 - day total national movie box office increased by 70.9% year - on - year. As of November 21, the total retail volume of three major household appliances decreased by 25.0% year - on - year, and the total retail sales decreased by 48.2% year - on - year [23][27]. 3.2.2 Transportation - As of November 23, the container throughput of ports increased by 12.8% year - on - year. As of November 28, the average subway passenger volume in first - tier cities increased by 3.2% year - on - year. The postal express pick - up volume increased by 8.2% year - on - year, the delivery volume increased by 7.0% year - on - year, the railway freight volume decreased by 0.5% year - on - year, and the highway truck traffic volume increased by 2.3% year - on - year [31][32]. 3.2.3 Industrial Operating Rates - As of November 26, the blast furnace operating rate of major steel enterprises was 76.8%, a year - on - year increase of 0.8pct. As of November 27, the average asphalt operating rate was 20.0%, a year - on - year decrease of 3.0pct. The soda ash operating rate was 81.9%, a year - on - year decrease of 5.0pct, and the PVC operating rate was 78.2%, a year - on - year increase of 0.4pct [40][42]. 3.2.4 Real Estate - As of November 28, the 7 - day total commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 33.2% year - on - year. As of November 21, the second - hand housing transaction area in 9 sample cities decreased by 17.3% year - on - year [45]. 3.2.5 Prices - As of November 28, the average pork wholesale price decreased by 23.7% year - on - year, the vegetable wholesale price increased by 15.9% year - on - year, and the average price of 6 key fruits increased by 2.0% year - on - year. The average price of thermal coal at northern ports increased by 0.7% year - on - year, and the average WTI crude oil spot price decreased by 15.7% year - on - year [46]. 3.3 Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets - On November 28, most Treasury yields rose. The 1 - year/5 - year/10 - year/30 - year Treasury yields were 1.40%/1.62%/1.84%/2.19% respectively, compared with November 21, they changed by - 0.2BP/+2.8BP/+2.6BP/+2.8BP respectively. The yields of other bonds also had corresponding changes [59]. - On November 28, the U.S. dollar - to - RMB central parity rate and spot exchange rate were 7.08/7.08, down 86/309 pips from November 21 [69]. 3.4 Institutional Behavior - Since the beginning of 2025, the duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds for interest - rate bonds has shown a trend of first decreasing, then increasing, and then decreasing. As of November 28, the estimated average duration was about 5.0 years, and the median was about 4.2 years, compared with November 21, they changed by + 0.11/ - 0.20 years respectively [71]. - Since the beginning of 2025, the duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds for credit bonds has shown a volatile trend. As of November 28, the estimated average duration was about 2.0 years, and the median was about 2.1 years, compared with November 21, they changed by - 0.04/+0.05 years respectively [72]. 3.5 Investment Advice - The report is bullish on the bond market, believing that the current bond market has prominent allocation value. Due to domestic economic data pressure, high short - term interest rates, and the start of the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle, the policy rate may be cut by 20BP in the next six months [4][76].
中国11月RatingDog制造业PMI49.9 年末供需侧或阶段性发力
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-12-01 09:43
而月内报告新业务增长的样本企业表示,原因包括新产品问世和海外需求改善。事实上,新出口订单录 得8个月来最快增速,这与企业致力拓业并取得成效有关。 自6月份后,制造业采购量首次出现下降,惟降幅仅算轻微。企业反映,鉴于新业务增速放缓,所以相 应减少对生产资料的采购。由于采购减少,加上与供应商沟通改善,11月份供应商交期缩短。与此同 时,由于生产投入品的补库存速度放缓,采购库存在7个月来首次下降。 整体来看,11月RatingDog中国制造业PMI表现由扩张转为收缩。各分项中,新出口订单的回暖并没有 带动制造业延续扩张。展望未来,考虑到冲刺全年5%增长目标的需要,年末供需侧或存在阶段性发力 可能,预计12月PMI将呈现弱扩张态势。 期货日报网讯(记者肖佳煊)12月1日,最新PMI数据显示,中国11月RatingDog制造业PMI为49.9,较前值 50.6下滑。第四季度中期,中国制造业景气有所减弱。 RatingDog报告显示,11月新订单增速降至接近停滞,产量也随之停止扩张,唯出口订单仍能恢复增 长。新业务增长减弱,中国制造商因此降低用工量和采购量,谨慎控制库存。 ...
瑞达期货不锈钢产业日报-20251201
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-12-01 08:39
:预计不锈钢期价震荡调整,关注M300压力。 免责声明 不锈钢产业日报 2025-12-01 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | 12445 | 80 01-02月合约价差:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | -70 | 0 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:不锈钢(日,手) | -6126 | 1933 主力合约持仓量:不锈钢(日,手) | 108469 | -8957 | | | 仓单数量:不锈钢(日,吨) | 62998 | -121 | | | | 现货市场 | 304/2B卷:切边:无锡(日,元/吨) | 13200 | 0 市场价:废不锈钢304:无锡(日,元/吨) | 8850 | 0 | | | SS主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 375 | -80 | | | | 上游情况 | 电解镍产量(月,吨) | 29430 | 1120 镍铁产量合计(月,万金属吨) | 2.29 | 0.12 | | | 进口数量:精炼 ...
瑞达期货沪锡产业日报-20251201
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-12-01 08:39
| | | 沪锡产业日报 2025-12-01 研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格证F03118799 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0022803 将有下降。需求端,部分下游及终端企业担忧锡价持续拉升,进行了少量补库及刚需采买,而整体则对当 前价位仍持观望态度。国内库存录得下降,现货升水回升至500元/吨;LME库存小幅增加,现货升水上涨 免责声明 。技术面,成交放量收上影线,多空分歧增大。观点参考:预计沪锡震荡上移,关注30.5-31位置阻力。 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料,瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠,但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证,据此投资,责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议,客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有,未经书面许可,任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发,需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院,且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货主 ...
瑞达期货沪镍产业日报-20251201
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-12-01 08:39
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - It is expected that Shanghai nickel will rebound and adjust in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the resistance at 119,000 [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 117,850 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 770 yuan/ton; the price difference between the 01 - 02 contracts of Shanghai nickel is - 210 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton [2] - The price of LME 3 - month nickel is 14,820 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 20 US dollars/ton; the position of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 122,891 lots, a decrease of 4,444 lots [2] - The net long position of the top 20 futures positions of Shanghai nickel is - 33,268 lots, a decrease of 6,343 lots; the LME nickel inventory is 254,760 tons, a decrease of 690 tons [2] - The inventory of nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 40,782 tons, an increase of 987 tons; the total cancelled warrants of LME nickel is 10,254 tons, a decrease of 1,146 tons [2] - The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 32,722 tons, a decrease of 587 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of SMM 1 nickel is 119,750 yuan/ton, an increase of 250 yuan/ton; the spot average price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous is 119,850 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton [2] - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main NI contract is 1,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 520 yuan/ton [2] - The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 196.77 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0.29 US dollars/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of nickel ore is 468.28 tons, a decrease of 143.17 tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,487.33 tons, a decrease of 12.43 tons [2] - The average import unit price of nickel ore is 57.33 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0.61 US dollars/ton; the tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total nickel - iron output is 22,900 tons, an increase of 1,200 tons [2] - The import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 9,939.65 tons, a decrease of 18,631.22 tons; the import volume of nickel - iron is 905,100 tons, a decrease of 180,200 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.8 million tons, an increase of 37,300 tons; the total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 597,600 tons, an increase of 12,300 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - China's official manufacturing PMI in November rebounded to 49.2, the PMI of high - tech manufacturing has been above the critical point of 50 for 10 consecutive months, and the non - manufacturing PMI declined slightly due to the high base effect [2] - European Central Bank President Lagarde said that interest rates are at a reasonable level, indicating satisfaction with the recent situation [2] - Germany's CPI in November was 2.3% year - on - year, lower than expected, and the preliminary value of the harmonized CPI year - on - year unexpectedly rose to 2.6%, reaching a nine - month high [2] 3.7 Technical and Market Conditions - In terms of technology, positions are stable, prices are adjusting, and differences between bulls and bears are increasing [2] - Domestically, nickel inventory continues to grow, the market mainly purchases as needed, and spot premiums rise; overseas, LME inventory also shows an increase [2]
股指期货周报:企稳反弹,量能不佳-20251201
Cai Da Qi Huo· 2025-12-01 05:06
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The four stock index futures varieties showed a stable rebound last week, with relatively large rebound amplitudes in CSI 1000 and CSI 500. All main contracts remained in the futures discount mode. The A - share market presented features of "index stabilization, sector - structure differentiation, and focused capital preference" last week. The market turnover decreased compared to the previous week, and the trading sentiment was still cautious. In November, the market showed an overall pattern of volatile adjustment, with significant differentiation in the trends of major stock indices. The core hotspots were concentrated in the battery industry chain, regional themes, and computing power hardware. Some state - owned large - scale banks in the weight camp also reached new stage highs, indicating the capital's preference for low - valuation and high - dividend assets in a volatile market [2] - In November 2025, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. The manufacturing prosperity declined, possibly due to weak demand and fewer working days. Looking ahead, the long - term liquidity released by the central bank's reserve requirement ratio cut and the increasing policy expectations due to the approaching Central Economic Work Conference support the market to bottom out and rebound. However, external market fluctuations may cause short - term emotional fluctuations. The short - term market may continue the feature of "bottom - range oscillation with a focus on structure" [3][4] 3. Summary by Related Contents Market Review - The four stock index futures varieties mainly rebounded stably last week, with relatively large rebound amplitudes in CSI 1000 and CSI 500. The basis of the four stock index futures varieties fluctuated slightly, and all main contracts were in the futures discount mode. The basis of the main futures contracts (futures - spot) was - 6.42 for IH, - 20.86 for IF, - 57.35 for IC, and - 73.41 for IM. The A - share market showed "index stabilization, sector - structure differentiation, and focused capital preference" last week. By the Friday close, major stock indices generally rose slightly, but the weekly trading volume decreased compared to the previous week, and the trading sentiment was cautious. In November, the market was in a volatile adjustment pattern, with significant differentiation in the trends of major stock indices. The core hotspots were in the battery industry chain, regional themes, and computing power hardware. Some state - owned large - scale banks in the weight camp reached new stage highs, reflecting the capital's preference for low - valuation and high - dividend assets in a volatile market [2] Comprehensive Analysis - In November 2025, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. The manufacturing prosperity decline might be related to weak demand and fewer working days. Looking ahead, the long - term liquidity released by the central bank's reserve requirement ratio cut and the increasing policy expectations due to the approaching Central Economic Work Conference support the market to bottom out and rebound. However, external market fluctuations may cause short - term emotional fluctuations. The short - term market may continue the feature of "bottom - range oscillation with a focus on structure" [3][4]
中国11月RatingDog制造业PMI降至49.9 逊预期
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-01 03:45
库存方面,原材料库存和产成品库存均转入收缩态势,读数均为近三年里较低指数,原材料库存水平为 七个月来的首次下降。价格方面,原材料价格和出厂价格依旧维持"原材料涨价,产成品降价"的分化格 局,专家指出,金属价格上涨是导致成本增加的主要原因,但原材料价格涨幅与出厂价格跌幅均有所收 窄,企业盈利空间持续承压。受新订单增长放缓影响,从业人员指数再入收缩区间。 整体来看,11月RatingDog中国制造业PMI表现由扩张转为收缩。各分项中,新出口订单的回暖并没有 带动制造业延续扩张。展望未来,但考虑到冲刺全年5%增长目标的需要,年末供需侧或存在阶段性发 力可能,预计12月PMI将呈现弱扩张态势。 中国11月RatingDog制造业PMI降至49.9(预期50.5,前值50.6),制造业呈现弱收缩态势。 从分项指标来看,11月生产与需求两端的扩张均呈现放缓趋势,且趋近停滞。需求端方面,尽管新出口 订单量有所回升,但仍未能改变制造业的低迷状态,新订单扩张态势几乎停滞。生产端方面,在新订单 增长整体放缓的影响下,制造商减少了用工规模和采购量,并在库存管理上变得更加谨慎。生产相关分 项指数环比均有所下降,采购量跌入收缩区间。 ...
铝:偏强运行,氧化铝:基本面矛盾未解,铸造铝合金:跟随电解铝
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-12-01 02:37
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Bullish trend [1] - Alumina: Fundamental contradictions remain unresolved [1] - Cast aluminum alloy: Follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report updates the fundamental data of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy, including prices, trading volumes, open interests, spreads, and inventory levels [1]. - It also provides information on the trend strength of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy, with aluminum and aluminum alloy showing a relatively strong trend, while alumina shows a relatively weak trend [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 21,610 yuan, up 110 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 127,656 lots, down 22,895 lots. The open interest was 260,670 lots, up 3,532 lots [1]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2,707 yuan, down 17 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 186,853 lots, down 31,965 lots. The open interest was 360,240 lots, up 2,034 lots [1]. - **Aluminum alloy**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 20,800 yuan, up 120 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 3,663 lots, down 1,081 lots. The open interest was 4,500 lots, down 1,016 lots [1]. Spot Market - **Aluminum**: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 590,000 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum ingot inventory was 539,100 tons, down 2,000 tons [1]. - **Alumina**: The average domestic alumina price was 2,856 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The CIF price of alumina in Lianyungang was 338 US dollars/ton, down 7 US dollars/ton [1]. - **Aluminum alloy**: The theoretical profit of ADC12 was -174 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The total inventory of three locations was 49,785 tons, down 139 tons [1]. Other Information - China's official manufacturing PMI in November rebounded to 49.2, while the non - manufacturing PMI declined slightly. The high - tech manufacturing PMI remained above the critical point for 10 consecutive months [3]. - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) experienced a major technical outage, causing all derivative market trading to pause [3].