□ 1月生产指数为50.6%，高于临界点，制造业生产保持扩张 □ 1月高技术制造业PMI为52.0%，连续2个月位于52.0%及以上较高水平，行业发展态势持续向好。装备 制造业PMI为50.1%，保持在扩张区间 □ 1月主要原材料购进价格指数和出厂价格指数分别为56.1%和50.6%，分别比2025年12月上升3.0个百分 点和1.7个百分点。其中，原材料购进价格指数创2024年6月以来新高，出厂价格指数是近20个月来首次 升至临界点以上 □ 1月制造业企业生产经营活动预期指数为52.6%，继续高于临界点 □ 1月服务业业务活动预期指数为57.1%，比2025年12月上升0.7个百分点，连续2个月环比上升，表明服 务业企业对近期市场发展信心有所增强 ◎记者 陈芳 从制造业PMI的分项指标看，企业生产增势有所放缓，但整体仍保持扩张态势，市场需求承压运行，新 订单指数和新出口订单指数均回落。 数据显示：1月生产指数为50.6%，高于临界点，制造业生产保持扩张；新订单指数为49.2%，较2025年 12月下降1.6个百分点；新出口订单指数为47.8%，较2025年12月下降1.2个百分点。 对于需求回落的原因，中国 ...

21世纪经济报道记者冉黎黎 北京报道 1月31日，国家统计局服务业调查中心和中国物流与采购联合会发布了中国采购经理指数。1月份，制造业采购经理指 数（PMI）为49.3%，比上月下降0.8个百分点，制造业景气水平有所回落。 对于制造业PMI回落的原因，国家统计局服务业调查中心首席统计师霍丽慧解读时提到，1月份，部分制造业行业进入传统淡季，加之市场有效需求仍显不 足。 中信证券首席经济学家明明对21世纪经济报道记者表示，2025年12月制造业PMI超预期回升至50.1%，产需全面改善下，春节备货情况有所前置，导致本月 数据回落。 从供需来看，生产指数为50.6%，高于临界点，制造业生产保持扩张；新订单指数为49.2%，市场需求有所回落。从行业看，农副食品加工、铁路船舶航空 航天设备等行业生产指数和新订单指数均高于56.0%，产需释放较快。 需要注意的是，高技术制造业PMI为52.0%，连续两个月位于52.0%及以上较高水平，相关行业发展态势持续向好。装备制造业PMI为50.1%，保持在扩张区 间。 另外，制造业市场价格总体水平改善。受近期部分大宗商品价格上涨等因素影响，主要原材料购进价格指数和出厂价格指数分别为 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - Copper prices soared and then fell back. In the short - term, panic sentiment still has a suppressing effect, but the long - term outlook is not pessimistic. The copper market is expected to gradually stabilize. The reference operating range for the main Shanghai copper contract this week is 99,000 - 108,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 12,600 - 13,800 US dollars/ton [13] Summary by Directory 1. Week - ly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Demand**: After copper prices soared and fell back, the weekly starting rate of copper primary enterprises rebounded slightly, and the spot market transactions first declined and then rose. The domestic refined - scrap copper price difference narrowed, the scrap copper substitution was still low, and the processing rate of recycled copper rods remained low [11]. - **Supply**: The spot processing fee for copper concentrates continued to decline, while the processing fee for blister copper increased month - on - month. Some copper mines faced production problems such as grade decline and strikes [12]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of the three major exchanges increased by 230,000 tons to 9.3 million tons. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 70,000 tons to 2.33 million tons, LME inventory increased by 40,000 tons to 1.75 million tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 110,000 tons to 5.22 million tons. The inventory in Shanghai Bonded Area decreased by 80,000 tons to 990,000 tons. The spot copper in East China was at a discount of 150 yuan/ton to the futures on Friday, and the LME market Cash/3M was at a discount of 89.9 US dollars/ton [12]. - **Import and Export**: The loss of domestic electrolytic copper spot imports narrowed, and the Yangshan copper premium decreased. In December 2025, China's refined copper imports were 298,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 27.0%. The cumulative imports from January to December were 3.828 million tons, and the net imports were 3.039 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.2% [12]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: Copper prices soared and then fell back. The main Shanghai copper contract rose 2.31% this week (as of Friday's close), and LME copper fell 0.44% to 13,070.5 US dollars/ton [20]. - **Spot Price**: Provided the spot prices of electrolytic copper, copper products and recycled copper in different regions and time periods, and the price differences between them [24]. - **Premium and Discount**: The domestic copper spot was at a discount of 150 yuan/ton to the futures in East China on Friday. The LME inventory increased, the proportion of cancelled warrants decreased, and Cash/3M remained at a discount, reporting a discount of 89.9 US dollars/ton on Friday. The loss of domestic electrolytic copper spot imports narrowed, and the Yangshan copper premium rebounded [29]. - **Structure**: Both Shanghai copper and LME copper maintained a Contango structure [32]. 3. Profit and Inventory - **Smelting Profit**: The spot rough - smelting fee TC for imported copper concentrates continued to decline to - 49.8 US dollars/ton. The sulfuric acid price in East China rebounded, which still made a positive contribution to copper smelting revenue [37]. - **Import - Export Ratio**: The offshore RMB first appreciated and then depreciated, and the spot Shanghai - LME ratio of copper fluctuated [40]. - **Import - Export Profit and Loss**: The loss of copper spot imports narrowed [43]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of the three major exchanges increased by 230,000 tons to 9.3 million tons. The inventory in Shanghai Bonded Area decreased by 80,000 tons to 990,000 tons. The increase in SHFE inventory came from Shanghai and Jiangsu, and the inventory in Guangdong decreased slightly. The number of copper warrants increased by 10,058 to 156,851 tons. The increase in LME inventory came from Asian and North American warehouses, European inventory decreased, and the proportion of cancelled warrants decreased [46][49][52]. 4. Supply Side - **Production**: In January 2026, China's refined copper production increased by about 10,000 tons month - on - month, higher than expected. It is expected that the production in February will decline month - on - month but maintain a high year - on - year growth. In December 2025, the refined copper production was 1.326 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.1%; the cumulative production for the whole year was 14.72 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% [56]. - **Import and Export**: In December 2025, China's copper ore imports were 2.704 million tons, a month - on - month increase. The cumulative imports from January to December were 30.31 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.9%. The import of unwrought copper and copper products was 437,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 21.96%. The cumulative imports from January to December were 5.321 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.4%. The import of anode copper was 61,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 23.5%. The cumulative imports from January to December were 750,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.6%. The import of refined copper was 298,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 27.0%. The cumulative imports from January to December were 3.828 million tons, and the net imports were 3.039 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.2%. The export of refined copper was 96,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 47,000 tons. The import of recycled copper was 239,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.83% and a year - on - year increase of 9.9%. The cumulative imports from January to December were 2.342 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.2% [59][62][65][71][74]. 5. Demand Side - **Consumption Structure**: Globally, the main consumption areas of electrolytic copper are power (46%), home appliances (15%), etc. In China, they are construction (26%), equipment (23%), etc [78]. - **PMI**: China's official manufacturing PMI in January decreased to 49.3, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8%. In December 2025, the manufacturing prosperity of major overseas economies was divided [81]. - **Downstream Industry Output**: In December, the year - on - year output of freezers, household refrigerators and power generation equipment increased, while that of automobiles, washing machines, air conditioners, color TVs and AC motors decreased. From January to December, the cumulative output of automobiles, air conditioners, household washing machines, household refrigerators and power generation equipment increased, while that of freezers, color TVs and AC motors decreased [84]. - **Real Estate Data**: In December, domestic real estate data continued to be weak, with new construction, construction, sales and completion all decreasing year - on - year. The National Real Estate Climate Index continued to decline [86]. - **Downstream Enterprise Starting Rate**: The starting rate of some downstream enterprises showed different trends of rise and fall in December, and different expected trends in January. This week, the starting rate of electrolytic copper rod production increased slowly, the starting rate of recycled copper rod production increased slightly but remained at a low level, the starting rate of wire and cable warmed up, and the starting rate of copper strip increased slightly [89][92][95][98][101][104]. - **Refined - Scrap Price Difference**: The domestic refined - scrap copper price difference widened compared with last week, reporting 3,630 yuan/ton on Friday [109]. 6. Capital Side - **SHFE Copper Position**: The total position of Shanghai copper decreased by 1,408 to 1,315,078 lots (bilateral), among which the position of the near - month 2602 contract was 87,404 lots (bilateral) [114]. - **Foreign Fund Position**: As of January 27, the CFTC fund position remained net long, but the net long ratio declined to 15.7%. The proportion of long positions of LME investment funds decreased (as of January 23) [117].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - The production side has warmed up driven by exports, but the marginal effect of policies on the demand side has weakened, leading to a slowdown in durable - goods consumption. There is still a drag from the real - estate market and insufficient consumer confidence, and domestic demand still awaits stabilization of residents' income and policy support. The export data in December was stronger than expected, with exports to non - US regions maintaining resilience [10]. - The central bank has carried out a 0.25 - percentage - point structural interest rate cut and indicated that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year. The Fed decided not to cut interest rates in January, and the market's expectation for the Fed's interest rate cut has been postponed to the middle of the year [10]. - The economic recovery momentum's sustainability needs to be observed. There is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts under the background of weak domestic demand recovery, but the timing of overall easing may be postponed after the structural interest rate cut. The bond market's allocation power is strong recently, but the market is expected to continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the impact of the stock market, government bond supply, and inflation expectations [12]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Economic and Policy Situation** - Production has warmed up due to exports, while durable - goods consumption has slowed down. The real - estate market drags and consumer confidence is insufficient. Exports in December were better than expected, with a decline in exports to the US and resilience in non - US regions [10]. - The central bank carried out a 0.25 - percentage - point structural interest rate cut and signaled more room for cuts. The Fed did not cut rates in January, and the expected rate - cut time was postponed to mid - year [10]. - **Liquidity** - The central bank conducted 176.15 billion yuan of reverse repurchase and 15 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposit operations this week, with 118.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase and 20 billion yuan of MLF maturing. The net injection was 53.05 billion yuan, and the DR007 rate closed at 1.59% [12]. - **Interest Rates** - The latest 10 - year treasury bond yield was 1.81%, down 2.34 BP week - on - week; the 30 - year treasury bond yield was 2.29%, down 0.30 BP week - on - week. The latest 10 - year US treasury bond yield was 4.26%, up 2.00 BP week - on - week [12]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendation** - For the unilateral strategy, it is recommended to buy on dips with a profit - loss ratio of 3:1 and a recommended cycle of 6 months, driven by loose monetary policy and difficult - to - improve credit [14]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - The report presents the closing price, annualized premium/discount, settlement price, and net basis of T, TL, TF, and TS contracts, as well as the closing price and trading volume of TS, TF, T, and TL contracts [17][22][25][27]. 3. Main Economic Data - **Domestic Economy** - GDP: The real GDP growth rate in the third quarter of 2025 was 4.8%, exceeding market expectations, and the economy showed resilience in the first three quarters [42]. - PMI: In January 2026, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and the service PMI was 49.5%, down 0.2 percentage points. The manufacturing supply and demand weakened, with the production index down 1.1 percentage points to 50.6% and new orders down 1.6 points to 49.2 [42][48]. - Price Index: In December, CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year, core CPI rose by 1.2% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 1.9% year - on - year. The month - on - month data showed CPI up 0.2%, core CPI up 0.2%, and PPI up 0.2% [51]. - Exports and Imports: In December 2025, exports (in US dollars) increased by 6.5% year - on - year, and imports increased by 5.7% year - on - year. Exports to the US decreased by 30.0% year - on - year, while exports to ASEAN maintained a relatively high growth rate [54]. - Industrial Added Value and Retail Sales: In December, industrial added - value increased by 5.2% year - on - year, and the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 0.9%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [57]. - Investment and Real Estate: From January to December, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was - 3.8%, and real - estate investment was - 17.2%. In December, the month - on - month change of second - hand housing prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities was - 0.7%, and the year - on - year change was - 6.1% [61]. - **Foreign Economy** - US Economy: In the third quarter, the US GDP at current prices was 3.1095 trillion US dollars, with a real year - on - year growth of 2.33% and a quarter - on - quarter increase of 4.30%. In December, the US CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 2.6% year - on - year [70]. - EU Economy: In the third quarter, the EU GDP increased by 1.4% year - on - year and 0.3% quarter - on - quarter. In December, the euro - area CPI increased by 2% year - on - year, the manufacturing PMI was 48.8, and the service PMI was 52.4 [76][79]. 4. Liquidity - In December, the M1 growth rate was 3.8%, and the M2 growth rate was 8.5%. The social financing increment was 2.21 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year decrease. The growth rate of government bonds in social financing slowed down, while the financing of the real - economy sector was stable [84][87]. - The MLF balance in December was 6.25 trillion yuan, with a net injection of 100 billion yuan. This week, the central bank's net injection was 53.05 billion yuan, and the DR007 rate closed at 1.59% [92]. 5. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - **Interest Rates** - Domestic treasury bond yields: The 2 - year yield was 1.38%, the 5 - year yield was 1.58%, the 10 - year yield was 1.81%, and the 30 - year yield was 2.29% [95]. - US treasury bond yield: The 10 - year yield was 4.26% [95]. - **Exchange Rates** - Not specifically analyzed in detail, but the report presents the USDCNH spot exchange rate and the US dollar index [106].

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI in January fell below the growth line, indicating a decline in economic activity and a need for stronger foundational support for economic recovery [3][5]. Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for January is reported at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating fluctuations in manufacturing operations [5]. - The new orders index dropped to 49.2%, down 1.6 percentage points, reflecting a tightening of market demand [5]. - Seasonal factors and changes in the export environment are contributing to the slowdown in market demand, with the new export orders index at 47.8%, a decline of 1.2 percentage points [5][7]. - The production index remains in the expansion zone at 50.6%, despite a decrease of 1.1 percentage points, suggesting continued overall expansion in manufacturing [7]. - The prices of major raw materials and factory output have increased, with the purchasing price index at 56.1% and the factory price index at 50.6%, indicating an improvement in overall price levels in the manufacturing market [7]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points, primarily due to a decline in the construction sector [10]. - The service sector remains relatively stable, with the business activity index slightly decreasing by 0.2 percentage points, maintaining around 49.5% [10][11]. - The service industry anticipates a boost from the upcoming Spring Festival, with a business activity expectation index of 57.1%, indicating optimism for consumer-related services [10][11]. Economic Outlook - The overall economic climate is expected to be influenced by changes in export growth, the domestic real estate market, and the timing and intensity of growth-stimulating policies [8]. - There is potential for monetary policy easing in the second quarter, with fiscal policies aimed at boosting consumption and investment expected to gain momentum [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the decline in China's manufacturing and non-manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for January, indicating a slowdown in economic activity, while also highlighting positive signals in price indices and the expansion of new economic drivers [2][3][4]. Manufacturing Sector - In January, the manufacturing PMI was reported at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating fluctuations in manufacturing operations [3]. - The decline is attributed to seasonal factors and insufficient market demand, with various sub-indices showing mixed results [3]. - The purchasing price index for raw materials rose to 56.1%, up 3 percentage points from the previous month, marking the highest level since June 2024 [4]. - The factory price index increased to 50.6%, rising 1.7 percentage points, returning to the expansion zone after 19 months below 50% [4]. - Over 34% of manufacturing enterprises reported a decline in profits, highlighting concerns regarding profitability [5]. New Economic Drivers - The high-tech manufacturing PMI stood at 52.0%, remaining above 52.0 for two consecutive months, indicating a positive trend in related industries [6]. - The equipment manufacturing PMI was at 50.1%, also within the expansion range, suggesting stable growth in this sector [6]. - The production and business activity expectation index was at 52.6%, indicating optimistic expectations among enterprises [7]. - Industries such as food processing and beverages showed strong confidence, with their activity expectation indices above 56.0% for two consecutive months [7]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index was reported at 49.4%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, primarily due to a slowdown in the construction sector [9]. - The construction business activity index fell to 48.8%, down 4.0 percentage points, reflecting a significant decline in construction activity [9]. - The service sector remained relatively stable, with the service business activity index slightly decreasing by 0.2 percentage points, maintaining around 49.5% for three consecutive months [9]. - The financial sector showed notable improvement, with the financial business activity index exceeding 65%, indicating strong support for the real economy [10].

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing sector in China is experiencing a decline in economic activity, as indicated by the drop in the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) below the growth threshold, reflecting insufficient market demand and the need for stronger economic recovery measures [1][4][6]. Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for January is reported at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating fluctuations in manufacturing operations [4]. - New orders index fell to 49.2%, down 1.6 percentage points, suggesting a tightening of market demand [4]. - The production index remains in the expansion zone at 50.6%, but has decreased by 1.1 percentage points, indicating a slowdown in manufacturing production growth [5]. - The prices of raw materials and finished products are rising, with the raw material purchase price index at 56.1% and the factory price index at 50.6%, marking the first time in nearly 20 months that the factory price index has risen above the critical point [5][6]. - Over 34% of manufacturing companies reported a decline in profits, highlighting concerns regarding profitability amid rising raw material costs [6]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points, with the construction sector experiencing a significant decline [9]. - The service sector remains relatively stable, with a slight decrease in the service business activity index to around 49.5% [10]. - The service industry shows optimistic expectations, with a business activity expectation index of 57.1%, indicating a positive outlook for the upcoming Spring Festival consumption [10].

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Overview - In January 2026, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was reported at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a tightening in market demand while production continues to expand [1][5] - The production index stood at 50.6%, remaining above the critical point, suggesting ongoing expansion in manufacturing production despite a decline in new orders index to 49.2% [5][6] - High-tech manufacturing PMI was recorded at 52.0%, indicating a sustained positive trend, while equipment manufacturing PMI was at 50.1%, also in the expansion zone [7] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing PMI Overview - The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index was reported at 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting a general decline in non-manufacturing sector activity [3][8] - The service sector's business activity index was at 49.5%, with financial services and capital market services showing high activity levels above 65.0%, while the real estate sector dropped below 40.0% [8] - The construction sector's business activity index fell to 48.8%, a significant decrease of 4.0 percentage points, indicating a notable decline in construction activity [8] Group 3: Comprehensive PMI Insights - The Comprehensive PMI Output Index was at 49.8%, down 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, suggesting a slowdown in overall business activities [3][9] - The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index contributed to the comprehensive PMI, recorded at 50.6% and 49.4% respectively [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The U.S. January S&P Global Manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 51.9, with employment sub - index hitting a new low since last year but still expanding for six consecutive months, and output reaching the highest level since August 2025. The EU Commission plans to extend the suspension period of anti - tariff measures against the U.S. [2] - For copper, the dollar index is under pressure, which is positive for the non - ferrous sector. However, the spot market has sufficient supply, demand is cautious, and LME inventory accumulation may suppress prices. Short - term copper prices will fluctuate. [2] - For aluminum, the macro - sentiment warms up, but industrial drivers are limited, and domestic inventory accumulates. The price is expected to fluctuate. [2] - For zinc, geopolitical tensions are rising, and the macro - sentiment is volatile. The domestic processing fee is at a low level, smelting profit is inverted, and production is expected to decline. Zinc prices will follow the sector to fluctuate. [2] - For nickel, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is stable. Indonesia's nickel - related policies and supply - side disturbances may affect prices. Short - term nickel prices are high, and in the long - term, high global inventories may suppress prices. It is recommended to go long on dips in the short - term. [2] Summary of Relevant Catalogs Price Indicators - LME non - ferrous metal futures prices showed various changes, such as copper at $12,921.5 with a 2.28% change and nickel at $18,705 with a 3.71% change. SHFE prices also had different changes, like aluminum at 23,990 yuan/ton with a - 0.31% change and nickel at 145,380 yuan/ton with a 2.81% change. [1] Inventory Indicators - LME non - ferrous metal inventories and their changes varied. For example, LME copper inventory was 170,525 tons with a 26.05% change, and LME zinc inventory was 111,325 tons with an 11.43% change. SHFE inventories also had different trends, such as SHFE aluminum inventory increasing from 141,725 tons to 197,053 tons with a 6.01% change. [1][2] Ascending and Descending Water Indicators - LME and SHFE non - ferrous metal ascending and descending water showed different changes. For example, SHFE copper's ascending and descending water changed from - 66.1 yuan/ton to 16.78 yuan/ton with an - 82.8 change. [2] Price - to - Price Ratio Indicators - The current price - to - price ratios of non - ferrous metals and their changes were presented. For example, the copper price - to - price ratio was 7.84 with a 7.81% change, and the zinc price - to - price ratio was 7.51 with a - 1.05% change. [2] Near - month to Continuous Third - month Spread Indicators - The current spreads of SHFE non - ferrous metals and their changes were shown. For example, the copper spread changed from - 290 yuan/ton to - 950 yuan/ton with a - 660 change. [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent economic data and trends in the US, Japan, and the Eurozone, highlighting the mixed signals in economic activity, employment, and financial conditions [1]. Group 1: Important Data Review - The US January S&P Global Manufacturing PMI has rebounded, with the final Q3 GDP growth rate at 4.4% [11][13]. - Japan's December export growth was below expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 5.1% compared to an expected 6.1% [11][14]. - The Eurozone's January ZEW Economic Sentiment Index has improved, and the manufacturing PMI has also increased, with France's manufacturing PMI reaching a nearly four-year high of 51 [11][14]. Group 2: US Economic Activity - The US WEI index fell to 2.34% for the week ending January 17, down from 2.40% the previous week [4][16]. - The German WAI index rose to 0.06% for the week ending January 18, up from -0.03% [5][16]. Group 3: Demand - The US Redbook retail sales year-on-year growth rate has marginally decreased to 5.5% for the week ending January 16, down from 5.7% [6][18]. - The US mortgage loan rate increased to 6.09% as of January 22, up from 6.06% the previous week, while the MBA market composite index rose to 397.2, a 14.1% increase from the previous week [6][23]. Group 4: Prices - Commodity prices have rebounded, with the RJ/CRB commodity price index at 312.24, a 3.4% increase from the previous week [7]. - The US gasoline retail price rose to $2.70 per gallon on January 19, an increase of 1.3% from the previous week [40]. Group 5: Employment - The ADP weekly job additions have decreased, with a four-week cumulative total of 46,000 jobs as of December 6, down from 70,000 the previous week [8][27]. - Initial jobless claims rose to 200,000 for the week ending January 17, up from 199,000 the previous week [29]. - The INDEED job vacancy index fell to a weekly average of 105.3 for the week ending January 9, down from the previous week's average [34]. Group 6: Financial Conditions - Financial conditions in the US and Eurozone have tightened, with the Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index for the US at 0.812, down from 0.848 the previous week [9][45]. - Offshore dollar liquidity has improved for the yen against the dollar, while it has worsened for the euro against the dollar [9][48]. - The 10-year government bond yield spread between the US and Eurozone has narrowed, with the spread at 132.3 basis points as of January 22, down from 134.6 basis points [10][51].