中国香港6月标普全球制造业PMI 47.8，前值49。 ...

Group 1: Bond Market Performance - The bond market shows a relatively strong trend post-quarter, with long-end contracts outperforming short-end contracts. As of July 2, the main contracts TL, T, TF, and TS increased by 0.40%, 0.14%, 0.07%, and 0.03% respectively [1] Group 2: Manufacturing PMI - The official manufacturing PMI for June rose by 0.2 percentage points to 49.7%, indicating a continued recovery in domestic manufacturing sentiment. Key sub-indices showed improvement, with the production index at 51.0% and the new orders index at 50.2%, both reflecting stable performance [2] - The increase in the new orders index was primarily driven by domestic demand, while new export orders saw a limited rebound to 47.7%. The raw material inventory index rose by 0.6 percentage points to 48.0%, suggesting an increased willingness among manufacturers to replenish stocks [2] - Manufacturing prices also showed signs of recovery, with the factory price index and major raw material purchase price index rising to 46.2% and 48.4%, respectively, both up by 1.5 percentage points from the previous month [2] Group 3: Funding Conditions - Post-quarter, the funding environment is trending towards looseness, with DR001 and DR007 rates falling to approximately 1.37% and 1.54%. The overnight funding spread is around 8 basis points, indicating a relatively low level [3] - The recent monetary policy committee meeting expressed a more optimistic view on the domestic economic situation, removing references to potential rate cuts, and emphasizing a flexible approach to policy implementation based on economic conditions [3] - The market is sensitive to changes in funding conditions, with expectations for a balanced and slightly loose funding environment in the near future. However, further easing may depend on adjustments to policy rates [3] Group 4: Investment Strategy - The recommendation is to maintain a neutral to slightly bullish stance in trading strategies. Given the current flat yield curve, a loosening of funding conditions is necessary for short-term rates to decline, suggesting a strategy of accumulating TS positions on dips [4] - Attention should be paid to potential profit-taking as bond prices rise significantly, and the existence of a yield spread between new and old 30-year government bonds provides some protection for the bond market [4]

Group 1 - The core point of the article indicates that Canada's RBC Manufacturing PMI for June is reported at 45.6, a decrease from the previous value of 46.1 [1]

| | | 沪镍产业日报 2025-07-02 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪镍(日,元/吨) | 121220 | 500 08-09月合约价差:沪镍(日,元/吨) | -90 | 60 | | | LME3个月镍(日,美元/吨) | 15190 | 65 主力合约持仓量:沪镍(日,手) | 74763 | -176 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:沪镍(日,手) | -6760 | -1119 LME镍:库存(日,吨) | 204006 | 120 | | | 上期所库存:镍(周,吨) | 24718 | -586 LME镍:注销仓单:合计(日,吨) | 11010 | 300 | | | 仓单数量:沪镍(日,吨) | 21137 | 0 | | | | 现货市场 | SMM1#镍现货价(日,元/吨) | 122050 | 600 现货均价:1#镍板:长江有色(日,元/吨) | 122150 | 500 | | | 上海电解镍:CI ...

Domestic Market Overview - The domestic market experienced a V-shaped reversal with a slight increase on July 1, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3457.75 points, up 0.39% [1][4] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10476.29 points, up 0.11%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 0.24% [1][4] - A total of 14965 billion yuan was traded in the A-share market, showing a slight decrease compared to the previous day [1][4] - Among the 30 CITIC first-level industries, 18 sectors saw an increase, with pharmaceuticals, non-ferrous metals, and banking leading the gains, while comprehensive finance, computers, and retail saw significant declines [1][4] Overseas Market Overview - The US stock market saw a general increase on July 1, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 0.91% [2][4] - The S&P 500 index fell by 0.11%, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped by 0.82% [2][4] - Chinese concept stocks showed mixed results, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index up 0.2% and the Wande Chinese Technology Leaders Index up 0.27% [2][4] Key News Highlights - The Central Economic Committee held its sixth meeting, focusing on advancing the construction of a unified national market and high-quality development of the marine economy [10][11] - The National Healthcare Security Administration and the National Health Commission issued measures to support the high-quality development of innovative drugs [14] - A series of national standards were implemented starting July 1, covering various sectors including proton exchange membrane fuel cells and electric vehicle battery replacement stations [16] - SEMI projected a shortage of approximately 1 million skilled workers in the global semiconductor industry by 2030 [17]

Group 1 - LME copper prices reached a three-month high, testing the $10,000 per ton mark, closing at $9,934.00, up $65.00 or 0.66% [1][2][3] - The manufacturing PMI in China rose to 49.7% in June, indicating a slight improvement in economic conditions, supported by policies in exports, consumption, and infrastructure [3][4] - The overall supply of copper remains tight, with LME registered warehouse stocks down 66% since mid-February, contributing to strong demand and a premium in the spot market [4] Group 2 - The US manufacturing sector continues to show weakness, with the ISM manufacturing PMI at 49.0, indicating contraction for the fourth consecutive month [4][5] - The Federal Reserve's Chairman Powell indicated a cautious approach to interest rate cuts, suggesting potential action later in the year [5] - Other base metals showed mixed performance, with aluminum slightly up by $1.00 or 0.04%, while zinc, lead, nickel, and tin experienced declines [6][7][8][9][10]

7月1日周二，ISM公布的数据显示，由于订单和就业萎缩加剧，美国6月ISM制造业连续四个月萎缩，美国制造业低迷的局面持续。与此同时，用于衡量原 材料支付价格的指标显示出通胀略有加速的迹象。 美国6月ISM制造业PMI指数为49，预期为48.8，前值为48.5。50为荣枯分界线。 重要分项指数方面： 新订单指数46.4，预期48.1，前值47.6。订单量创下三个月来的最大降幅，并已连续五个月减少，可能反映出关税上升以及整体美国经济放缓。 制造业产出在经历三个月收缩后，6月重新进入扩张区间。 就业指数45，降至三个月低点，预期47.1，前值46.8。就业指数已连续五个月处于收缩区间。 物价支付指数69.7，接近2022年6月以来的最高水平，预期69.5，前值69.4。原材料成本上升仍是制造商面临的问题。 订单积压指数下降2.8个点，为一年来的最大跌幅，至44.3。订单积压指数已连续33个月陷入收缩，创下历史纪录。 进口和出口指标仍处于收缩状态，但下降速度有所放缓。进口指数在上月大跌后在6月跳涨7.5点，创五年来最大单月涨幅。 媒体分析称，需求疲软和订单积压减少，部分解释了制造业就业加速下降的原因。ISM制造业商业 ...

Market Overview - The main contracts in the futures market show a bearish sentiment, with 36 contracts rising and 41 contracts falling, indicating a concentration of trading activity in declining varieties [2] - The manufacturing sector in China has shown signs of recovery, with the Caixin China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rising to 50.4 in June, up 2.1 points from May, indicating a return to expansion [9] Key Commodity Movements - The top gainers include the shipping index (up 7.80%), Shanghai gold (up 1.47%), and No. 20 rubber (up 1.15%), significantly influenced by supply and demand factors [4] - The largest declines were seen in industrial silicon (down 4.31%), glass (down 3.73%), and coking coal (down 3.32%), likely due to increased bearish pressure or negative fundamentals [4] Capital Flow Analysis - The most significant capital inflows were into Shanghai gold (CNY 2.902 billion), Shanghai copper (CNY 2.757 billion), and CSI 1000 (CNY 1.717 billion), indicating strong interest from major funds [6] - Conversely, the largest capital outflows were from CSI 500 (CNY -0.941 billion), CSI 300 (CNY -0.684 billion), and Shanghai silver (CNY -0.424 billion), suggesting a notable withdrawal of funds [6] Position Changes - Notable increases in open interest were observed in glass (up 10.37%), Shanghai gold (up 7.47%), and pulp (up 6.66%), indicating heightened trading activity and potential new capital inflows [8] - Significant decreases in open interest were noted in apples (down 4.76%), wire rods (down 7.69%), and short fibers (down 8.15%), suggesting a withdrawal of major funds [8] Industrial Insights - Industrial silicon production in June increased by 6.5% month-on-month but decreased by 27.7% year-on-year, with a cumulative decline of 17.8% in the first half of 2025 [10][11] - The glass industry is expected to reduce production in July by nearly 5% due to increased losses, despite a slight increase in production in June [15] Future Outlook - The industrial silicon market is facing a slowdown in demand from its three main downstream industries, suggesting a bearish outlook for the medium to long term [20] - The coking coal market is expected to experience fluctuations, with supply pressures easing as production resumes in certain regions [22] - The glass market continues to face high inventory levels and weak demand, with prices likely to follow cost fluctuations [23]

美国6月标普全球制造业PMI终值 52.9，预期52，前值52。 ...

智通财经7月1日电，美国6月标普全球制造业PMI终值为52.9，预期52，前值52。 ...