Core Viewpoint - The PTA spot prices have been consistently stronger than futures since June, leading to heightened attention from industry chain enterprises, with the PTA basis average value rising by 40% year-on-year as of June 26 [1] Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The strengthening of the PTA basis is primarily due to a tight supply-demand structure, with polyester plant operating rates maintaining at 90%, the second-highest level of the year, indicating strong downstream demand [1] - In June, approximately 200,000 tons of PTA were de-stocked, continuing the de-stocking trend from the second quarter, while the main suppliers have slowed down their shipment pace, creating a seller's market [1] - The current PTA social inventory is at a neutral to low level, with tight circulating inventory further supporting the strong PTA basis [1] Group 2: Market Outlook and Potential Risks - Despite the current strength of the PTA basis, there are differing opinions on its sustainability, with expectations of potential production cuts in the polyester sector due to profit losses and inventory buildup [2] - Polyester production is expected to be 6.6 million tons in July, with PTA consumption potentially decreasing by 70,000 tons, and further reductions are anticipated in August during the demand off-season [2] - Key variables to monitor include geopolitical changes and oil price fluctuations, as well as the execution of production cuts in the polyester industry and the commissioning progress of new PTA facilities [2] Group 3: Cost Structure and Future Projections - The elasticity of the PTA cost side is also noteworthy, with a near-term strong performance expected due to low inventory supporting the basis and industry chain profits [3] - However, in the long term, the commissioning of new PTA facilities and reduced maintenance plans in the second half of the year, combined with the seasonal demand downturn, may limit the upward price potential of PTA [3] - The supply-demand structure of PX is currently better than that of PTA, and any unexpected maintenance of PX facilities could impact PTA prices positively [3]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a high opening but closed lower, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.17% to 24,284.15 points and a total trading volume of HKD 275.115 billion [1] - The Hang Seng Index rose 3.2% over the week, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index and the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 2.76% and 4.06%, respectively [1] Blue-Chip Stocks Performance - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) reached a new high, closing up 3.6% at HKD 58.95, contributing 58.62 points to the Hang Seng Index, following the launch of its first SUV, the Xiaomi YU7, which saw significant pre-order success [2][7] - Other notable blue-chip movements included Alibaba Health (00241) up 6.35%, Zijin Mining (02899) up 4.17%, while China Life (02628) and China Resources Land (01109) saw declines of 2.97% and 2.55%, respectively [2] Sector Highlights - Large tech stocks showed mixed results, with Xiaomi's YU7 orders boosting its stock, while Alibaba saw a slight decline [3] - The non-ferrous metals sector continued to rise, with Jiangxi Copper (00358) up 7.71% and Tianqi Lithium (09696) up 6.78%, driven by rising copper prices amid a squeeze in the London Metal Exchange [3] - The internet healthcare sector performed well, with Ping An Good Doctor rising over 8% and Alibaba Health up over 6% [3] AMC Sector Activity - The AMC sector saw significant gains, with China Cinda (01359) up 7.03% and CITIC Financial Assets (02799) up 2.38%, following announcements of asset management plans [4] - Analysts noted that long-term funds are increasingly seeking high-dividend assets, which may stimulate further activity in the banking sector [4] Notable Stock Movements - Saturday's Fortune (06168) surged 33.83% to HKD 40.15, driven by strong demand in the gold market and positive sentiment in the Hong Kong stock market [8] - Juzi Bio (02367) rebounded 5.75% to HKD 54.25, following announcements of share buybacks by its controlling shareholder [9] - Huaxing Capital Holdings (01911) rose 4.67% to HKD 4.48, after announcing plans to enter the Web3.0 and cryptocurrency sectors with a budget of USD 100 million [10] Weak Performers - Hong Kong Travel (00308) fell 25.63% to HKD 1.48, as the company undergoes strategic reviews without any confirmed decisions [11] - Rongchang Bio (09995) dropped 6.17% to HKD 55.55, attributed to market disappointment over its recent business development transaction [12]

美联储主席鲍威尔暗示不急于降息，使市场对7月降息预期降温，转而押注9月降息。高利率环境下，非 生息资产黄金价格受压制。同时，美国经济数据有韧性，实际利率上行增加黄金持有成本，美元阶段性 走强也打压国际金价。 技术性抛售与市场情绪 金价持续上涨积累大量获利盘，中东局势缓和及市场预期转变后，多头集中获利离场致黄金回调。且金 价跌破关键支撑位，引发程序化交易平仓，加剧市场抛压，出现"多杀多"踩踏效应，加速金价下跌。 走势展望 截至8点30分，国内黄金（99.95%）最新报价为774.06元/克，上涨0.12%。 国际黄金价格报3327.0美元/盎司，下跌0.63%。 以下是今日对黄金价格走势影响较大的3个主要资讯： 地缘政治局势 当地时间6月24日，以色列和伊朗达成停火协议，市场避险情绪迅速降温，资金从黄金等避险资产撤 离，转投风险资产，导致黄金价格大幅下跌。不过停火协议脆弱，双方互指违约，特朗普批评更添变 数，若冲突重启，避险需求将推动金价上涨。 美联储货币政策 目前黄金市场多空因素交织。地缘政治不确定性为金价提供一定支撑，但美联储货币政策及技术性抛售 压力又使其承压。短期来看，黄金或维持震荡格局，关注周五PCE ...

合成橡胶产业日报 2025-06-26 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 11195 | -30 主力合约持仓量:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 36383 | 28760 | | | 合成橡胶7-8价差(日,元/吨) | 120 | -30 仓单数量:丁二烯橡胶:仓库:总计(日,吨) | 700 | -100 | | 现货市场 | 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,齐鲁石化):山 东(日,元/吨) 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR ...

近期，以色列和伊朗达成停火协议，这一消息对黄金市场产生了显著影响，金价短期走势呈现出震荡走弱的态势。以下是对该现象的详细分析： 停火削弱黄金避险需求 黄金作为传统的避险资产，其价格走势往往与地缘政治紧张局势密切相关。在以色列和伊朗冲突期间，市场避险情绪升温，投资者纷纷买入黄金以对冲风 险，推动金价上涨。然而，随着双方停火协议的达成，市场对地缘政治风险的担忧有所缓解，避险需求下降，导致黄金的吸引力减弱，价格出现回调。 例如，当地时间 6 月 23 日，据央视新闻报道，美国总统特朗普称以色列和伊朗已完全同意全面停火，受此消息影响，黄金价格出现波动。COMEX 黄金 盘中巨震，尾盘走低，报收 3384.4 美元 / 盎司，跌幅 0.04%。 美联储政策预期影响黄金走势 美联储的货币政策对黄金价格有着重要影响。市场对美联储未来利率走向的预期会影响美元的走势，进而间接影响以美元计价的黄金价格。目前市场预期 美联储可能在 7 月开始降息，但这种预期存在不确定性。 如果美联储维持鹰派立场，推迟降息甚至进一步加息，将推动美元指数攀升，使得黄金承压。因为美元走强会使以其他货币计价的黄金更昂贵，抑制全球 买需。此外，高利率环境使 ...

Report Summary Investment Ratings - **Financial Futures and Options**: - **Stock Index Futures**: Short - term: Oscillating with an upward bias; Medium - term: Bullish [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Short - term: Oscillating slightly weaker; Medium - term: Bullish [2] - **Commodity Futures and Options**: - **Black and Building Materials Sector**: Short - term: Steel prices to run weakly; Medium - term: Downward pressure on steel prices persists [4] Core Views - **Stock Index Futures**: Overseas geopolitical tensions ease, and domestic policies are expected to boost the A - share market [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Geopolitical easing pressures safe - haven assets, and domestic policies are expected to be more accommodative [2][3] - **Black and Building Materials Sector**: High raw material inventory and weak downstream demand lead to downward pressure on steel prices [4][5] Summary by Category Financial Futures and Options Stock Index Futures - **Reference Strategy**: Hold short MO2507 - P - 5800 out - of - the - money put options and long IM2507 contracts [1] - **Core Logic**: Overseas, the easing of geopolitical tensions boosts risk sentiment; domestically, policies are expected to boost domestic demand [1] Treasury Bond Futures - **Reference Strategy**: Reduce long positions in T2509 or TL2509 trading accounts, and hold long positions in allocation accounts [2] - **Core Logic**: Geopolitical easing pressures safe - haven assets; the central bank increases net investment to stabilize funds; domestic policies are expected to be more accommodative [2][3] Commodity Futures and Options Black and Building Materials Sector - **Reference Strategy**: Re - enter the strategy of selling RB2510 call options (exercise price 3150 - 3450) or buy RB2510 at - the - money put options [4][6] - **Core Logic**: High raw material inventory and weak downstream demand, especially in the construction season, and the easing of geopolitical tensions reduces the upward drive of steel prices [4][5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Gold, Palm oil, Rapeseed oil, BR rubber [1] - Bearish: Silver, Industrial silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium carbonate, Coking coal, Coke, Styrene [1] - Sideways: Stock index, Treasury bond, Copper, Aluminum, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless steel, Tin, Rebar, Hot - rolled coil, Iron ore, Manganese silicon, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda ash, Canola oil, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybean meal, Pulp, Logs, Live pigs, Crude oil, Fuel oil, Asphalt, Shanghai rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Short - fiber, PP, PE, PVC, Calcined alumina, LPG, LPG shipping on the European line [1] Core Views - The domestic economic fundamentals have weak support, short - term domestic policy expectations are not strong, and overseas disturbances have intensified. The stock index will mainly fluctuate weakly. Use options to hedge uncertainties. Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term reminder of interest - rate risks restricts the upside space. The escalation of the Middle East situation may support the gold price, and the medium - to - long - term upward logic remains solid [1]. - For non - ferrous metals, the market risk preference is volatile. Copper inventories may decline further, and the copper price will maintain a high - level sideways movement. Aluminum prices will run strongly due to low inventories and potential squeeze risks. Zinc prices face upward pressure, and nickel prices will oscillate weakly in the short term. For industrial silicon and polysilicon, supply - side factors and weak demand lead to a bearish outlook. For lithium carbonate, weak demand and high inventory pressure the price [1]. - In the black - metal sector, the transition from peak to off - peak season, loose supply - demand, and cost factors lead to a lack of upward drivers for rebar and hot - rolled coil. Iron ore may face supply increases in June. The supply - demand of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon is relatively loose, and glass and soda ash prices are under pressure due to weak demand. Coking coal and coke prices are expected to decline [1]. - In the agricultural products sector, the U.S. biodiesel RVO quota proposal may tighten the global oil and fat supply - demand, but the impact of crude - oil fluctuations needs to be noted. Cotton prices are expected to oscillate weakly. Sugar production in Brazil may reach a record high in the 2025/26 season, and the price may be affected by the crude - oil price. Corn prices are expected to oscillate strongly, and soybean - meal prices will show different trends for different contracts [1]. - For energy and chemical products, the Middle East geopolitical situation and the summer consumption peak may support crude oil and fuel oil prices. Asphalt prices are affected by cost, inventory, and demand factors. Shanghai rubber prices are affected by factors such as the narrowing of the spot - futures price difference and inventory changes. PTA, ethylene glycol, and short - fiber prices are affected by the tense situation in the Middle East. Styrene prices are bearish due to factors such as increased device load [1]. Summary by Categories Macro - finance - Stock index: Weakly supported by domestic fundamentals and affected by overseas disturbances, it will mainly fluctuate weakly. Hedge with options [1]. - Treasury bond: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial, but central - bank warnings restrict the upside [1]. - Gold: Supported by the escalation of the Middle East situation, with a solid medium - to - long - term upward logic [1]. - Silver: May fluctuate weakly in the short term [1] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The market risk preference is volatile. With the opening of the export window, inventories may decline, and the price will maintain a high - level sideways movement [1]. - Aluminum: Low inventories and potential squeeze risks lead to a strong price. Alumina futures are at a discount, restricting the downside [1]. - Zinc: The refinery output is recovering, and the price faces upward pressure. Pay attention to the Middle East situation [1]. - Nickel: High nickel - ore premiums, increasing LME inventories, and medium - to - long - term oversupply pressure. The price will oscillate weakly in the short term [1]. - Stainless steel: The market risk preference is volatile. With weak downstream demand and increasing inventories, the price will oscillate at the bottom in the short term, and there is supply pressure in the long term [1]. - Tin: Pressured by photovoltaic production cuts and the off - season. Pay attention to the impact of rising oil prices [1]. - Industrial silicon: Supply - side复产 and weak demand with high inventory pressure lead to a bearish outlook [1]. - Polysilicon: Rapid decline in downstream production, sufficient warehouse receipts, and insignificant supply - side cuts [1]. - Lithium carbonate: Declining ore prices, high downstream inventories, and weak purchasing [1] Black Metals - Rebar and Hot - rolled coil: In the transition from peak to off - peak season, with loose supply - demand and cost factors, there is no upward driver [1]. - Iron ore: There is an expectation that iron - water production has peaked, and there will be an increase in supply in June. Pay attention to steel - price pressure [1]. - Manganese silicon: Slightly increased short - term production, weakening demand, relatively loose supply - demand, and insufficient cost support [1]. - Ferrosilicon: Affected by coal costs, production decreases due to profit pressure, and demand weakens marginally [1]. - Glass: Supply and demand are both weak, and the price will continue to decline weakly with the arrival of the off - season [1]. - Soda ash: Supply may be excessive due to the resumption of maintenance, weak terminal demand, and weakened cost support [1]. - Coking coal: Spot prices continue to decline, and the futures price rebounds to repair the discount. The upper limit is the warehouse - receipt cost of 780 - 800, and it can be short - sold [1]. - Coke: The cost of coking coal is decreasing, and the coke price will decline accordingly [1] Agricultural Products - Palm oil and Rapeseed oil: The U.S. biodiesel RVO quota proposal may tighten the global oil and fat supply - demand, but beware of crude - oil fluctuations [1]. - Canola oil: Affected by biodiesel factors like palm oil, but the friendly Sino - Canadian talks may ease trade relations [1]. - Cotton: Affected by trade negotiations, weather premiums, and macro uncertainties. The domestic cotton - spinning industry is in the off - season, and the price will oscillate weakly [1]. - Sugar: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high. The price may be affected by the crude - oil price through the sugar - alcohol ratio [1]. - Corn: The start of the minimum - price purchase of wheat in Anhui boosts the market. The wheat - corn price relationship needs attention, and the price will oscillate strongly [1]. - Soybean meal: MO9 will oscillate, while M11 and M01 are expected to be stronger due to import - cost support [1]. - Pulp: Demand is weak, but the downside is limited. Consider a 7 - 9 reverse spread [1]. - Logs: High positions near the delivery of the main contract lead to intense capital games. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Live pigs: With the recovery of the pig inventory, the slaughter weight is increasing, and the breeding profit is good. The futures price is at a discount, and it will remain stable [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil and Fuel oil: Affected by the Middle East geopolitical situation and the summer consumption peak [1]. - Asphalt: Affected by cost, inventory, and demand factors. The cost drags down, inventory accumulation slows down, and demand is slowly recovering [1]. - Shanghai rubber: The spot - futures price difference has narrowed, raw - material prices have declined, and inventories have decreased significantly [1]. - BR rubber: Supported by the increase in raw - material prices, it will oscillate strongly in the short term [1]. - PTA: Affected by the U.S. bombing of Iran, the spot basis is strong, and there are issues with PX device maintenance and supply [1]. - Ethylene glycol: Continuing to reduce inventory, affected by the Middle East situation and polyester procurement [1]. - Short - fiber: The cost is closely related to the tense situation in the Middle East, and factories have maintenance plans [1]. - Styrene: The device load has increased, and the price is bearish [1]. - PP: Affected by maintenance and geopolitical factors, the price will oscillate strongly [1]. - PE: The maintenance support is limited, and the price will oscillate weakly [1]. - PVC: Supply pressure increases with the end of maintenance and new device production. Affected by geopolitical factors, the price will oscillate strongly [1]. - Calcined alumina: The spot price is strong, but the futures price has factored in the price - cut expectation. Pay attention to the alumina market [1]. - LPG: Affected by geopolitical factors, it is recommended to wait and see. The price will oscillate strongly. Consider spreads [1]

Report Core Information Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Report Core View - The report provides a weekly preview of hot topics, including important events and data releases that may impact the futures market, and analyzes the potential effects of these events on different types of futures prices [2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs This Week's Key Focus - From June 24th to 27th, the 16th Session of the 14th National People's Congress Standing Committee will be held in Beijing [2] - On June 24th at 22:00, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will testify on the semi - annual monetary policy report before the House Financial Services Committee [2] - On June 26th at 20:30, the US Department of Commerce will release the final value of Q1 2025 GDP [2] - On June 27th at 09:30, the National Bureau of Statistics will announce the industrial enterprise profits for May [2] - On June 28th at 20:30, the US Department of Commerce will release the May PCE price index [2] This Week's Hot Topic Preview June 23rd - S&P Global will release the preliminary value of the Eurozone's June SPGI manufacturing PMI at 16:00, with an expected value of 49.8 and a previous value of 49.4. A slightly higher value may slightly boost non - ferrous metals, crude oil and related commodity futures prices but slightly suppress gold and silver futures prices [3] - S&P Global will release the preliminary value of the US June SPGI manufacturing PMI at 21:45, with an expected value of 51.2 and a previous value of 52. A slightly lower value may slightly suppress non - ferrous metals, crude oil and related commodity futures prices but slightly boost gold and silver futures prices [4] - The National Association of Realtors will release US May existing - home sales at 22:00. The expected annualized total is 3.97 million units (previous 4 million), and the expected monthly rate is - 1.3% (previous - 0.5%). Lower sales may suppress non - ferrous metals futures prices but boost gold and silver futures prices [5] June 24th - The National Bureau of Statistics will release the market prices of important production materials in the circulation field in mid - June at 9:30, covering 9 categories and 50 products [8] - The 16th Session of the 14th National People's Congress Standing Committee will be held from June 24th to 27th, with multiple draft laws on the agenda [9] - IFO will release Germany's June IFO business climate index at 16:00, with an expected value of 88.3 and a previous value of 87.5 [10] - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will testify on the semi - annual monetary policy report before the House Financial Services Committee at 22:00 [11] - The Conference Board will release the US June consumer confidence index at 22:00, with an expected value of 99.8 and a previous value of 98. A higher value may boost non - ferrous metals, crude oil and related futures prices but suppress gold and silver futures prices [12] - The 16th Annual Meeting of the New Champions (Summer Davos Forum) will be held from June 24th to 26th in Tianjin, with the theme of "Entrepreneurship in the New Era" [13] - The NATO Summit will be held from June 24th to 25th in The Hague, and Trump will attend [14] June 25th - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will testify on the semi - annual monetary policy report before the Senate Committee at 22:00 [15] - The US Department of Commerce will release US May new - home sales at 22:00. The expected seasonally - adjusted annualized total is 692,000 units (previous 743,000), and the expected monthly rate is - 6.5% (previous 10.9%). Higher sales may boost non - ferrous metals futures prices but suppress gold and silver futures prices [16] - EIA will release the change in US EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending June 20th at 22:30. A continued significant decline may boost crude oil and related commodity futures [17] June 26th - The US Department of Labor will release the initial jobless claims for the week ending June 21st at 20:30, with an expected value of 245,000 (previous 245,000) [18] - The US Department of Commerce will release the final value of Q1 2025 GDP at 20:30. The expected annualized quarterly rate of real GDP is - 0.2% [19] - The US Department of Commerce will release the preliminary value of the May durable goods orders at 20:30, with an expected monthly rate of 8.5% (previous - 6.3%). A significantly higher value may boost non - ferrous metals futures but suppress gold and silver futures [20] - The National Association of Realtors will release the US May seasonally - adjusted pending home sales index at 22:00, with an expected monthly rate of 0% (previous - 6.3%) [21] June 27th - The National Bureau of Statistics will announce China's May industrial enterprise profits at 09:30. The cumulative year - on - year growth from January to April was 1.4%, and in April it was 3% [22] - Eurostat will release the Eurozone's June economic sentiment index and industrial sentiment index at 17:00. The expected economic sentiment index is 95.3 (previous 94.8), and the expected industrial sentiment index is - 9.8 (previous - 10.3) [24] June 28th - The US Department of Commerce will release the May PCE price index at 20:30. The expected annual rate of the PCE price index is 2.3% (previous 2.1%), and the expected annual rate of the core PCE price index is 2.6% (previous 2.5%). Slightly higher values may delay the expected start of Fed rate cuts from September to November or December [25] - The US Department of Commerce will release May consumer spending at 20:30. The expected monthly rate is 0.1% (previous 0.2%). A slightly lower value may slightly suppress non - ferrous metals, crude oil and related commodity futures prices but slightly boost gold and silver futures prices [26]

Core Viewpoint - The current market is experiencing volatility influenced by geopolitical tensions and mixed messages from the U.S., leading to fluctuations in gold and silver prices. Investors are advised to adopt a short-term trading strategy rather than focusing on single-direction trends [2][4]. Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices have shown significant fluctuations, with a recent high of 3396 and a low of 3358. The trading range for this week is identified between 3405 and 3340, indicating that a break below 3340 could lead to further declines towards 3280, while a break above 3405 could push prices up to 3430 and 3465 [4]. - The overall trend for gold remains bullish, but the market is currently in a consolidation phase, suggesting that traders should focus on short-term gains rather than long positions [5]. Silver Market Analysis - The silver market is also experiencing a similar trend, with a focus on short-term trading strategies. Key support is noted at 35.2, while resistance is at 37. The strategy involves maintaining long positions at lower levels while considering short positions at higher levels [6]. - Domestic silver prices have shown a rebound after a drop, with a recent high around 8800. The trading strategy suggests waiting for a potential short position above 8900 while looking for buying opportunities around 8700 [6]. Oil Market Analysis - The international oil market has seen a significant increase, currently trading around 77.8. The bullish trend is expected to continue, with potential targets set at 80 and 84.5. Traders are advised to look for buying opportunities on pullbacks without attempting to short the market [7]. - Domestic fuel oil has also shown strong bullish momentum, with a recent high of 3255. The support level is identified at 3120, and traders are encouraged to buy on dips while maintaining a bullish outlook [7]. Market Outlook - The global financial market is anticipated to face multiple tests this week, with key economic indicators and central bank speeches likely to influence market volatility. Investors are advised to remain vigilant and closely monitor these developments for potential trading opportunities [2][4].

Core Viewpoint - The Turkish central bank is closely monitoring the potential impact of geopolitical developments and the rise of global trade protectionism on the inflation decline process [1] Group 1 - The central bank is paying attention to geopolitical developments [1] - The rise of global trade protectionism is a concern for the central bank [1] - The potential effects on the inflation decline process are being closely observed [1]