Core Viewpoint - The significant rise in gold and mining ETFs is attributed to the historical surge in gold prices, driven by various factors including geopolitical tensions and the U.S. government shutdown [9][11][12]. Market Performance - On October 9, the first trading day after the holiday, major stock indices in China saw strong gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.32% to 3933.97 points, marking a 10-year high [1]. - The gold stock ETF closed up 9.47%, the mining ETF up 8.58%, the non-ferrous 60 ETF up 8.44%, and the gold fund ETF up 4.57% [2][4][6][7]. Gold Price Surge - The spot gold price has historically surpassed $4000 per ounce, closing at $4040.42 on October 8, with a cumulative increase of $207.49 per ounce since September 30, reflecting a 5.41% rise [9]. - The U.S. government shutdown has delayed the release of key economic data, contributing to uncertainty in the labor market, with the ADP reporting a decrease of 32,000 jobs in September, significantly below expectations [9]. Geopolitical Factors - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the Israel-Palestine conflict, continue to create uncertainty in the market, which may further drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [10][12]. Central Bank Actions - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for the eleventh consecutive month, reaching 74.06 million ounces by the end of September, indicating a trend towards diversifying international reserves [10]. Future Outlook - The expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut, combined with geopolitical uncertainties and a trend towards de-dollarization, is likely to support gold prices in the medium to long term [12][14]. - The copper market is also expected to show resilience due to supply constraints and increasing demand from sectors such as electric vehicles and data centers [13][14]. Investment Opportunities - Investors are encouraged to monitor gold and mining ETFs, as their performance is closely tied to gold prices, which are expected to rise [11][14]. - The mining ETF has a significant exposure to copper and gold, with copper accounting for 28% and gold 15% of its composition, while the non-ferrous 60 ETF has 29% copper and 17% gold [11].

Core Insights - Domestic gold prices have reached a new high, with retail prices surpassing 1100 yuan per gram, indicating a significant upward trend in the market [1][2] - The price disparity among different gold retailers has widened, with the highest price at 1108 yuan per gram and the lowest at 1011 yuan per gram, reflecting a 97 yuan difference [1][2] Gold Retail Prices - Major gold retailers have reported the following prices as of September 26, 2025: - Lao Miao: 1106 yuan/gram, up by 1 yuan - Liu Fu: 1108 yuan/gram, up by 10 yuan - Chow Tai Fook: 1108 yuan/gram, up by 10 yuan - Zhou Li Fu: 1061 yuan/gram, unchanged - Jin Zun: 1108 yuan/gram, up by 10 yuan - Lao Feng Xiang: 1108 yuan/gram, up by 3 yuan - Chao Hong Ji: 1108 yuan/gram, up by 10 yuan - Zhou Sheng Sheng: 1106 yuan/gram, up by 6 yuan - Cai Bai: 1058 yuan/gram, unchanged - Shanghai China Gold: 1011 yuan/gram, unchanged [2] Gold Recycling Prices - The gold recycling prices have slightly increased by 1.5 yuan/gram, with notable differences among brands: - General gold recycling price: 841.70 yuan/gram - Cai Bai: 847.20 yuan/gram - Zhou Sheng Sheng: 836.50 yuan/gram - Chow Tai Fook: 845.80 yuan/gram - Lao Feng Xiang: 854.70 yuan/gram [3] International Gold Prices - The spot gold price fluctuated, reaching a high of 3761.38 USD/ounce and a low of 3721.65 USD/ounce, closing at 3748.13 USD/ounce, with a daily increase of 0.32% [5] - As of the latest update, the spot gold price is reported at 3751.58 USD/ounce, with a slight increase of 0.09% [5] - The fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by strong U.S. economic data, geopolitical tensions, and market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [5]

Core Viewpoint - The market's expectation of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, along with geopolitical tensions, trade conflicts, and global economic uncertainties, has strengthened the demand for gold as a safe haven, providing support for gold prices [1][3] Price Movements - Gold prices faced resistance after reaching $3779, subsequently experiencing a decline to $3717 before rebounding to $3736 [1] - On Thursday, gold opened at $3751, faced resistance, and then stabilized around $3729 before rising to $3761, currently trading at $3753 [1][3] Technical Analysis - The overall trend for gold remains upward despite recent fluctuations, with key support levels at $3750 and $3730, and resistance levels at $3779 and $3791 [3] - Short-term technical indicators show that the bullish sentiment continues to dominate, although there are signs of potential adjustments [3] Market Sentiment - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's cautious stance regarding inflation and employment risks has heightened market caution, impacting gold's upward momentum [1][3] - Recent geopolitical developments, including peace proposals and tariff agreements, have reduced market risk aversion, contributing to gold's price adjustments [1]

Price Trends - Domestic gold prices continue to rise, with several brands exceeding 1100 CNY per gram, notably Laomiao Gold at 1105 CNY per gram, an increase of 8 CNY, marking it as the highest price among gold stores today [1] - The price gap between the highest and lowest priced gold stores has widened to 94 CNY per gram, with Shanghai China Gold remaining unchanged at 1011 CNY per gram, the lowest price [1] Brand Pricing Overview - Detailed pricing from various gold brands includes: - Laomiao Gold: 1105 CNY per gram, up 8 CNY - Liufu Gold: 1098 CNY per gram, unchanged - Chow Tai Fook: 1098 CNY per gram, unchanged - Zhou Liufu: 1066 CNY per gram, up 11 CNY - Gold Supreme: 1098 CNY per gram, unchanged - Lao Fengxiang: 1105 CNY per gram, up 7 CNY - Chao Hongji: 1098 CNY per gram, unchanged - Zhou Shengsheng: 1100 CNY per gram, unchanged - Caibai: 1058 CNY per gram, unchanged - Shanghai China Gold: 1011 CNY per gram, unchanged [1][3] Platinum Price Trends - Platinum prices are also on the rise, with Zhou Shengsheng's platinum jewelry increasing by 19 CNY per gram to 591 CNY per gram [4] Gold Recycling Prices - Gold recycling prices have increased by 4.3 CNY per gram, with significant price differences among brands: - Gold recycling prices include: - 842.30 CNY per gram for general gold - 847.80 CNY per gram for Zhou Shengsheng - 837.10 CNY per gram for Chow Tai Fook - 846.40 CNY per gram for Lao Fengxiang - 855.30 CNY per gram for Caibai [4] International Gold Market - The spot gold price has shown an upward trend, reaching a peak of 3790.79 USD per ounce, closing at 3763.89 USD per ounce, with a daily increase of 1.68% [6] - As of the latest update, spot gold is priced at 3755.17 USD per ounce, reflecting a 0.24% increase [6] - Factors driving the increase in gold prices include expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, a weakening dollar index, and heightened geopolitical tensions leading to increased demand for safe-haven assets [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices are continuously rising, driven by geopolitical instability and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which supports the bullish sentiment in the gold market [3]. - The current market environment is influenced by two main factors: ongoing geopolitical tensions that increase risk aversion, leading to a surge in demand for gold, and persistent speculation regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, which suppresses the dollar's strength [3]. - The recommendation is to maintain a bullish outlook on gold, focusing on buying on dips, while closely monitoring developments in geopolitical events and signals from the Federal Reserve regarding policy changes [3]. Group 2 - The evening trading strategy suggests buying gold on pullbacks to the range of 3765-3760, with a stop loss at 3753 and a target of 3790 [2]. - There is an expectation for gold prices to continue their upward trend, potentially reaching the 3800 level in the near term [3]. - The overall market sentiment remains strong for gold, with solid buying power and limited space for significant downward corrections in the short term [3].

说完国内黄金价格，我们再来讲讲国际金价情况： 上周五现货黄金盘中不断震荡，晚间出现拉升。最终收报3684.36美元/盎司，涨幅1.10%。今日金价继 续保持回升，截至发稿，现货黄金暂报3705.72美元/盎司，涨幅0.58%。 上周五金价的回升主要是市场对美联储降息预期升温，据CME"美联储观察"数据显示，市场对美联储 10月降息的预期为91.9%，12月降息预期更是高达98.9%。而紧张的地缘政治局势也是金价上涨的重要 支撑。 9月22日国内黄金市场动态：国内品牌金店金价涨势又起，价格再次接近上周的高位。其中，周生生黄 金上涨8元，报价1090元/克，为今日的最高价金店。上海中国黄金继续维持999元/克的报价，还是最低 价金店。今日的金店高低价差已扩大至91元。 具体各大品牌金店最新价格见下表格： | 今日金店黄金价格一览（2025年9月22日） | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 金店报价 | 今日金价 | 单位 | 变动幅度 | 涨跌 | | 老庙黄金价格 | 1084 | 元/克 | 5 | 涨 | | 六福黄金价格 | 1085 | 元/克 | 7 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Oil prices are expected to move up slightly due to escalating geopolitical tensions and improved domestic demand data [1]. - Fuel oil prices are expected to fluctuate, with the low - sulfur fuel oil market structure weakening and the high - sulfur fuel oil market having some support. Attention should be paid to the fluctuations of crude oil on the cost side [3]. - Asphalt prices may rise further as the supply is expected to decline slightly in September and the demand is supported by the "Golden September and Silver October" season. Attention should be paid to the fluctuations of oil prices on the cost side [3]. - Polyester prices are expected to fluctuate. PTA's fundamentals are expected to improve, and ethylene glycol's supply recovery needs to be followed up. Prices may follow the cost side [4]. - Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate, with both supply and demand increasing. Attention should be paid to the results of China - US talks and the Fed meeting [6]. - Methanol prices are expected to enter a stage bottom, and the basis will gradually strengthen. Attention should be paid to buying opportunities at low prices [6]. - Polyolefin prices will fluctuate with raw materials as the demand is improving marginally and the supply remains stable [8]. - PVC prices are expected to fluctuate due to high supply, slow domestic demand recovery, and large inventory pressure [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, WTI October contract closed up $0.61 to $63.30 per barrel, a 0.97% increase; Brent November contract closed up $0.45 to $67.44 per barrel, a 0.67% increase; SC2510 closed at 493.4 yuan per barrel, up 5.4 yuan or 1.11%. Geopolitical tensions are rising, and domestic demand data has improved month - on - month. In August, the output of industrial crude oil above designated size was 18.26 million tons, a 2.4% year - on - year increase, and the processing volume was 63.46 million tons, a 7.6% year - on - year increase [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Monday, the main contract of high - sulfur fuel oil FU2601 rose 2.41% to 2,799 yuan per ton, and the main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil LU2511 fell 2.65% to 3,375 yuan per ton. The low - sulfur fuel oil market structure is weakening, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market has some support. The supply in Singapore has increased recently [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Monday, the main contract of asphalt BU2511 fell 0.29% to 3,393 yuan per ton. The supply is expected to decline slightly in the remaining weeks of September, and the demand is supported by the "Golden September and Silver October" season [3]. - **Polyester**: TA601 closed at 4,672 yuan per ton, up 0.52%; EG2601 closed at 4,288 yuan per ton, up 0.37%. PX supply has recovered, and the downstream TA maintenance is coming to an end. The fundamentals of polyester are expected to improve [4]. - **Rubber**: On Monday, the main contract of natural rubber RU2601 rose 175 yuan to 15,995 yuan per ton, and the main contract of 20 - number rubber NR rose 155 yuan to 12,710 yuan per ton. The supply and demand are both increasing, and the inventory is expected to continue to decline [4][6]. - **Methanol**: The supply is currently at a low level due to many domestic device overhauls and will gradually recover. The Xingxing device has resumed production, and the supply - demand gap in East China is narrowing. The price is expected to enter a stage bottom [6]. - **Polyolefin**: The demand is improving marginally with the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver October" season, and the supply remains stable. The price will fluctuate with raw materials [8]. - **PVC**: The domestic real - estate construction has stabilized and rebounded, but the demand recovery is slow. The export is affected by India's anti - dumping policy. The total inventory pressure is large, and the price is expected to fluctuate [8]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy - chemical products on September 15, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes compared with September 12 [9]. 3.3 Market News - In August, the production of industrial crude oil above designated size increased by 2.4% year - on - year, and the processing volume increased by 7.6% year - on - year. The US is ready to impose new energy sanctions on Russia, but only if all NATO countries stop buying Russian oil [12]. 3.4 Chart Analysis 3.4.1 Main Contract Prices - The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [14][17][20] 3.4.2 Main Contract Basis - The report shows the basis charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, etc. [32][34][38] 3.4.3 Inter - contract Spreads - The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of various energy - chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [47][49][52] 3.4.4 Inter - product Spreads - The report presents the spread charts between different products, such as crude oil's internal - external spread, B - W spread, fuel oil's high - low sulfur spread, etc. [62][66][70] 3.4.5 Production Profits - The report shows the production profit charts of ethylene - made ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, etc. [73][76] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy - chemical research team, including Zhong Meiyan, Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, along with their professional backgrounds and achievements [78][79][80] 3.6 Contact Information - The company's address is on the 6th floor, Unit 703, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company's phone number is 021 - 80212222, the fax is 021 - 80212200, the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, and the postal code is 200127 [83]

中美就妥善解决TikTok问题达成基本框架共识 新华社报道，中国商务部国际贸易谈判代表兼副部长李成钢15日傍晚表示，中美双方就以合作方式妥善 解决TikTok问题、减少投资障碍、促进有关经贸合作等达成了基本框架共识。 当地时间9月14日至15日，中美双方经贸团队在西班牙马德里举行会谈。李成钢在会谈结束后中方代表 团举行的新闻发布会上说，过去两天，中美双方积极落实两国元首通话重要共识，充分发挥中美经贸磋 商机制作用，在相互尊重、平等协商的基础上，就TikTok等双方关注的经贸问题进行了坦诚、深入、建 设性的沟通。 关于TikTok问题，李成钢表示，中国一贯反对将科技和经贸问题政治化、工具化、武器化，绝不会以牺 牲原则立场、企业利益和国际公平正义为代价，寻求达成任何协议。中方将坚决维护国家利益和中资企 业合法权益，依法依规开展技术出口审批。同时，中国政府充分尊重企业意愿，支持企业在符合市场原 则基础上，开展平等商业谈判。 发布会上，中国国家互联网信息办公室副主任王京涛在回答媒体提问时指出，中美双方在充分尊重企业 意愿和市场规律的基础上，就通过TikTok美国用户数据和内容安全业务委托运营、算法等知识产权使用 权授 ...

Group 1 - Domestic gold prices remain stable, with some stores showing slight declines; the highest price reported is 1078 CNY per gram, while the lowest is 999 CNY per gram [1][2] - The price range between the highest and lowest gold prices in stores has expanded to 79 CNY [1] - Platinum prices are on the rise, with a slight increase of 3 CNY per gram for platinum jewelry, now priced at 564 CNY per gram [2] Group 2 - The gold recovery price has decreased by 1.7 CNY per gram, with significant price differences among brands [3] - The current gold recovery price is 818.80 CNY per gram, with variations across different brands [3] - International gold prices experienced fluctuations, with the latest spot gold price at 3635.57 USD per ounce, reflecting a decline of 0.20% [5] Group 3 - Recent fluctuations in gold prices were influenced by weak U.S. economic data and geopolitical risks, which initially supported price increases [5] - UBS analysts have raised their gold price targets, projecting 3800 USD per ounce by the end of 2025 and 3900 USD per ounce by mid-2026 [5] - The market is currently in a wait-and-see mode, with expectations of continued volatility in gold prices [5]

Group 1 - International gold prices are currently challenging the $3700 per ounce mark after a period of consolidation around $3400, driven by weak U.S. employment indicators and increased likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - The significant rise in gold prices in 2025, with an increase of approximately 30% in less than nine months, is attributed to geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, as well as concerns over the future of the U.S. dollar due to trade wars and Federal Reserve policies [2] - The rise in gold prices is expected to have a limited impact on industrial production but may suppress jewelry consumption, particularly affecting businesses that produce and sell gold jewelry [2] Group 2 - Mining companies with substantial gold reserves and favorable production conditions are likely to benefit from rising gold prices, which also positively influences silver and other precious metals [3] - The ongoing increase in gold prices is shifting investor behavior, with a notable rise in sales of physical gold products like gold bars, while jewelry consumption declines, indicating a preference for gold as a safe-haven investment [3] - The limited capacity of domestic gold investment avenues, such as the 20 available gold ETFs with a total net value of around 155 billion yuan, suggests that there is potential for growth in gold investment options, which could influence market dynamics [4]