只要就业和通胀数据保持稳定，不再出现反复波动的情况，市场对于美联储货币政策路径的迷茫和困惑 就会迅速消散。届时，资金的关注焦点将重新聚焦到美国巨额财政赤字长期恶化的问题上。而这一因 素，恰恰是孕育黄金长期牛市最为肥沃的土壤，为黄金价格的持续上涨提供了坚实的基础。 【最新现货黄金行情解析】 据相关数据显示，目前全球央行平均黄金储备占比约为20%。而作为全球重要经济体的中国，其黄金储 备占比仅为8%。值得注意的是，几乎所有央行都将黄金储备的目标设定在了30%！这一目标的明确， 意味着在未来几年内，还将有数千吨的黄金被各国央行收入囊中。如此大规模的扫货行为，无疑将对黄 金市场的供需关系产生深远的影响，使得供需天平彻底向多头一方倾斜，为黄金价格的走势提供了强大 的支撑。 今年，黄金ETF持仓量出现了惊人的增长，增幅高达17%。这一现象的背后，是越来越多的投资者对传 统投资理念的重新审视。在高通胀时代，传统的"60%股票+40%债券"投资组合显得力不从心，难以有 效抵御通货膨胀带来的风险。因此，投资者们开始寻求新的投资策略，将目光投向了黄金、白银、铜、 原油等具有硬资产属性的投资品种，以期通过对这些资产的配置，实现对冲 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current market dynamics for gold are influenced by geopolitical tensions and shifts in U.S. monetary policy, leading to a bearish short-term outlook for gold prices [1][2][3][4]. Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - As of November 24, gold is trading around $4046.91 per ounce, with a decline of 0.46% and a trading range between $4076.69 and $4042.45 [1]. - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are largely driven by market reactions to U.S. Federal Reserve policy signals and geopolitical events, particularly the ongoing Ukraine conflict [2][4]. - The market is currently showing a bearish trend for gold, with expectations of further declines unless key resistance levels are breached [5]. Group 2: U.S. Federal Reserve Influence - The recent comments from New York Fed President Williams, who adopted a dovish stance, have significantly shifted market expectations regarding potential interest rate cuts by the Fed, with the probability of a December rate cut rising from below 30% to over 50%, nearing 70% [2][3]. - There is a notable division within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate policy, with some officials advocating for a pause on rate cuts while others support them, adding to market uncertainty [3]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - The geopolitical landscape, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict, remains a critical factor influencing market sentiment and investment decisions [4]. - Developments in Japan and the changing dynamics between the U.S. and Venezuela are also highlighted as significant influences on the global economic and political landscape [4].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 原油周报 (11.17-11.21) 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 回顾 2 相关资讯 3 展望 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 回顾与要闻 上周，原油震荡走低，纽约商品交易所主力轻质原油期货价格收于每桶57.98美元，周跌3.06%；伦敦布伦特原油主力期货价格收于每桶61.89美 元，周跌3.73%；中国上海原油期货收于每桶446.4元，周跌2.40%。周初，对俄罗斯能源供应的不确定性对油价起到支撑作用。乌克兰使用无人 机袭击了俄罗斯黑海地区重要港口新罗西斯克港口的一个油库和一艘船只，此次袭击导致该港口装货工作暂停两日。此前机构调查数据显示，9 月和10月，新罗西斯克港每日出口约70万桶俄罗斯石油。此外，美国对俄油气制裁于周五正式实施，部分炼厂已 ...

张尧浠：美联储降息前景仍在、金价震荡调整待走强 黄金市场上周：国际黄金偏触底回升式震荡收跌，当周围绕着美联储对于12月降息预期升温于下降等抉择，以及就业数据等好坏参半中震荡调整，但仍处 于5-10周均线上方，暗示后市仍有在再度走强的前景预期，但短期则偏向继续维持横盘震荡调整波动。 具体走势上，金价自周初开于4084.59美元/盎司，连续走出触底回升形态，并于周二录得当周低点3997.78美元，虽受到买盘支撑，一度转强触及当周高点 4132.38美元，但动力未能持稳，而再度走低震荡调整，于周五收于4064.80美元，周振幅134.6美元，收跌19.79美元，跌幅0.48%。 历史也告诉我们，每一次在降息周期中的回调，最终都成了上车的最好机会。 展望本周周一(11月24日)：国际黄金开盘窄幅波动，早盘延续上周五回升之力，以及 美联储"三把手"鸽派发言令12月降息预期有所回暖，有所走强，但仍 面临阻力压制，和其他众多美联储官员对于12月降息泼冷水的打压。 另外，美元指数早盘走强反弹，也对其金价多头产生一定限制，整体来看，上周公布的9月非农就业数据的表现强劲，以及多位美联储官员的不急于降 息，削弱了12月降息概率，但 ...

据知情人士向央视新闻透露及文件显示，英国、法国和德国已联合起草并提交了一份修改后的"和平计 划"，旨在反制美方此前的提议，并核心聚焦于为乌克兰提供实质性的安全保障。 该方案明确拒绝了在此前美方提案中关于限制基辅武装力量规模及进行领土让步的条款，标志着大西洋 两岸在如何结束冲突的路径上存在显著分歧。 这份为日内瓦谈判准备的文件提议，乌克兰应从美国获得类似于北约第五条款（Article 5）的共同防御 安全保障。据彭博报道，欧洲盟友坚持认为，任何关于领土交换的讨论只能在战争沿当前接触线停止后 才能进行，且强烈反对按照莫斯科的要求割让东部未被占领的领土。这表明欧洲试图在特朗普总统推动 的快速协议框架下，为基辅争取更有利的安全底线。 在经济层面，该提案与美方构想也存在根本性冲突。欧洲方面反对美国提出的动用在西方（主要是欧盟 境内）冻结的俄罗斯资产进行盈利性投资的计划，坚持这些资产必须用于乌克兰的重建与赔偿，直至俄 罗斯全额支付战争损失。这一立场的强硬转化，意味着投资者关注的"和平红利"及制裁解除路径将面临 更为复杂的谈判博弈，市场对于地缘政治风险快速出清的预期或需重新校准。 类北约第五条款的防御承诺 据彭博援引知情人 ...

Group 1 - Japan's economic reliance on China is significant, with approximately 20% of Japan's total exports going to China, while China's reliance on Japan has decreased to a historical low of 4.5% in terms of imports [1] - The tourism sector in Japan is heavily dependent on Chinese visitors, with the prosperity of locations like Kyoto and Hokkaido closely tied to their travel intentions [1] - The recent surge in Japanese stock markets is primarily driven by international investors, such as Warren Buffett, rather than Chinese investment institutions, indicating a shift in capital dynamics [1] Group 2 - The recent high-profile incident in Japan may trigger widespread economic backlash from the public, similar to the 2016 response in South Korea, where entertainment exports to China plummeted by 37% [3] - Political instability in Japan, characterized by frequent changes in leadership, could undermine economic policies and investor confidence, leading to a negative feedback loop between politics and economics [3][5] - Japan's lack of natural resources and innovation, combined with a reliance on overseas asset returns from the "lost three decades," poses a significant challenge for sustaining its developed economy [5]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the oil refining industry. Core Insights - The report highlights that spring orders are beginning to be released in certain regions, and the profitability of polyester filament continues to improve [1]. Summary by Sections Domestic and International Refining Project Price Differentials - As of November 21, 2025, the domestic key refining project price differential is 2389.69 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 52.43 CNY/ton (+2.24%). The international key refining project price differential is 1446.16 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 6.66 CNY/ton (+0.46%) [2][3]. Refining Sector - The report notes that the end of the U.S. government shutdown is expected to boost demand. Geopolitical tensions, particularly the attack on the Russian port of Novorossiysk, raise concerns about supply disruptions from Russia. The Brent and WTI crude oil prices as of November 21, 2025, are 62.56 USD/barrel and 58.06 USD/barrel, respectively, reflecting decreases of 1.83 USD and 2.03 USD from the previous week [2][15]. Chemical Sector - The chemical price differentials are showing a fluctuating trend. Polyethylene prices are stable, while polypropylene demand remains weak, leading to price declines. The report indicates that the price of pure benzene remains stable, with a slight increase in its price differential [2][57]. Polyester & Nylon Sector - Demand for polyester filament is gradually being released, with product prices and profits showing slight increases. The report mentions that two new production facilities have been commissioned, although they have not yet started production. The prices of nylon fiber products have slightly increased, while the price differential has significantly decreased [2][57]. Stock Performance of Major Refining Companies - As of November 21, 2025, the stock price changes for six major private refining companies over the past week are as follows: Rongsheng Petrochemical (-9.17%), Hengli Petrochemical (-5.29%), Dongfang Shenghong (-3.44%), Hengyi Petrochemical (-3.01%), Tongkun Co. (-6.04%), and Xin Fengming (-9.63%). Over the past month, stock price changes are: Rongsheng Petrochemical (+4.58%), Hengli Petrochemical (+14.38%), Dongfang Shenghong (+7.91%), Hengyi Petrochemical (+10.44%), Tongkun Co. (+11.55%), and Xin Fengming (+7.98%) [2].

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in the gold market, highlighted by a significant drop in gold prices, is primarily driven by the Russian central bank's unexpected sale of gold reserves to address fiscal challenges, alongside changing market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies [1][5][11]. Market Dynamics - On November 21, gold prices experienced a dramatic fluctuation, peaking at $4088 per ounce before plummeting to a low of $4025.38, marking a single-day movement exceeding $50 [3]. - The London gold price as of November 22 was $4063.94 per ounce, reflecting a slight decline of 0.35% from the previous trading day, while the Shanghai gold market showed an increase of 0.49% to 932.03 yuan per gram, indicating a divergence in market behavior [3][5]. Influencing Factors - The market's reaction to the Federal Reserve's policy changes is crucial, with expectations for a December rate cut dropping from over 90% to 32.8%, while the probability of maintaining current rates rose to 60.4% [3]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, continue to create uncertainty, impacting gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [5][11]. Technical Analysis - Current gold prices are at a critical juncture, with short-term traders' positions concentrated around $4050. A breakout in either direction could trigger significant market reactions [7]. - Analysts predict three potential scenarios for gold prices: a rebound towards $4200, a range-bound movement between $3950 and $4150, or a slight pullback testing support at $3850 to $3900 [9][11]. Institutional Perspectives - Major financial institutions have differing forecasts for gold prices, with UBS raising its mid-2026 target from $4200 to $4500 per ounce, while JPMorgan anticipates an average price of $5055 by the end of 2026 [11]. - The global central bank's gold purchases have provided essential support for gold prices, with China increasing its reserves for 12 consecutive months and a total of 634 tons purchased globally in the first three quarters [5][11]. Investment Strategies - For long-term investors, the focus remains on the ongoing trend of de-dollarization and central bank purchases, suggesting a strategy of accumulating gold during price dips [13]. - Short-term traders should closely monitor Federal Reserve signals and geopolitical developments, establishing clear stop-loss and take-profit levels [13][15]. Market Sentiment - The recent outflow of $1 billion from the largest gold ETF indicates shifting investor sentiment, with some reallocating funds towards equities, particularly in the tech sector [13][20]. - The gold market's volatility reflects broader economic uncertainties, with gold maintaining its status as a traditional safe-haven asset amidst fluctuating market conditions [21].

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年11月21日15时44分 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属震荡回调，沪金主力收跌1.40%，沪银主力收跌3.70%。①核心逻辑，短期避险方面，中美会谈利空兑现，地缘异动风 险仍存；美国就业走弱通胀温和，联储官员偏鹰，降息预期回调。②避险属性方面，中美经贸磋商成果共识公布。俄乌、中东等地 缘异动风险仍存。③货币属性方面，美国9月就业增长超预期，但失业率升至4.4%。美联储官员警示金融稳定风险，12月是否降息 仍存分歧。美联储公布的10月政策会议纪要显示，美联储决策层在上月降息时存在严重分歧。许多官员认为，在2025年剩余时间 内维持利率不变"可能是合适之举"。更多美联储决策者暗示对12月降息持谨慎态度。美国政府结束停摆，市场等待更多经济数 据指引。目前市场预期美联储12月降息25基点概率跌至30%附近。美元指数和美债收益率下行遇阻偏强；④商品属性方面，CRB 商品指数震荡偏弱，人民币贬值利多内价格。⑤预计贵金属短期震荡偏弱，中期高位震荡，长期阶梯上行。 | 策略：稳健者观望，激进者高抛低吸。建议做好仓位管理，严格止损止盈。 | | --- | | 表 ...

美元指数应声冲高，一度逼近100.35，创下11月5日以来的新高，以美元计价的黄金对海外买家瞬间变 得更贵，金价盘中快速回落近40美元。 汇通财经APP讯——周四（11月20日）现货黄金在剧烈震荡中顽强收稳，收报4077.17美元/盎司，全天 最高冲至4110.03美元，最低跌至4038.82美元，波动幅度超过70美元。这波看似平静的横盘，实则暗流 涌动——美国迟来的9月非农就业报告彻底打乱了市场节奏，既浇灭了部分降息幻想，又因为失业率意 外抬升而重新点燃了鸽派希望。黄金作为最敏感的利率交易品种，再一次站在了风口浪尖。周五（11月 21日）亚市早盘，现货黄金窄幅震荡，目前交投于4085美元/盎司附近，市场目光开始聚焦美国提出的 俄乌和平计划。 9月非农"王炸"来迟：11.9万vs预期5万，夏季疲软只是假象？ 因美国政府历史最长时间的停摆，原定10月3日发布的9月非农数据直到11月20日才姗姗来迟。结果直接 把市场吓了一跳：9月非农就业岗位新增11.9万个，是经济学家预测值5万个的两倍多！8月数据也被大 幅下修至-0.4万个。这份迟到却异常强劲的报告瞬间让"美国经济正在硬着陆"的叙事被撕得粉碎。 摩根士丹利当晚 ...