2509预计随油价震荡，技术上关注7150附近支撑与7400附近压力。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 石化计划重启，产量、产能利用率预计环比上升。下游需求季节性偏弱，终端订单跟进有限，制品开工率 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 维持小幅下降趋势。进口减少或部分缓解国内供需矛盾。库存压力不大。成本方面，多国表示愿帮助调节 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 助理研究员: 徐天泽 期货从业资格号F03133092 伊以冲突，但近日冲突呈升温趋势，国际油价高位宽幅震荡。短期来看，基本面对LLDPE盘面影响较小，L 塑料产业日报 2025-06-17 | 项 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the petrochemical industry, indicating a favorable investment environment [3]. Core Insights - The escalation of conflicts in the Middle East has led to significant fluctuations in oil prices, with Brent crude reaching a peak of $78.5 per barrel on June 13, marking the largest single-day increase in nearly five years. The report outlines three potential scenarios for the impact of the Israel-Iran conflict on oil prices, ranging from limited upward pressure to a potential surge above $100 per barrel if the situation escalates further [6][7][14]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - As of June 13, 2025, Brent crude futures closed at $74.23 per barrel, up 11.67% from the previous week, while WTI futures rose 13.01% to $72.98 per barrel. The average prices for the week were $69.45 and $67.89 per barrel, respectively [6][21]. - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.644 million barrels to 432 million barrels, which is 8% lower than the same period last year. Gasoline inventories increased by 1.504 million barrels, remaining 2% lower than the five-year average [21][23]. - The number of U.S. drilling rigs decreased by 4 to 555, which is a year-on-year decline of 35 rigs. The report anticipates a widening supply-demand trend in crude oil, with potential downward pressure on prices, but expects drilling day rates to continue rising due to ongoing capital expenditures in the global oil and gas upstream sector [6][21]. Refining Sector - The report notes a decline in overseas refined oil crack spreads, with Singapore's comprehensive product crack spread dropping to $5.40 per barrel, down $5.38 from the previous week. The gasoline crack spread in the U.S. also fell to $20.95 per barrel, below the historical average of $24.88 per barrel [6][54][56]. - Despite the decline in crack spreads, the report suggests that refining profitability may gradually improve as overseas refineries exit the market and domestic refining rates remain low [6]. Polyester Sector - PTA profitability has increased, while profits from polyester filament yarn have decreased. The report highlights that the overall performance of the polyester industry is average, with a need to monitor demand changes closely. However, it anticipates an upward trend in industry prosperity in the medium to long term due to a slowdown in new capacity additions [6][51]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality refining companies such as Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Sinopec, as well as companies in the upstream exploration and development sector like CNOOC and Haiyou Engineering. It also suggests monitoring polyester leaders like Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials for potential investment opportunities [6][15][16].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term: Oil prices are expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger pattern, with Brent spreads stronger than the Dubai market. High refinery profits in the short term are likely to lead to an expected increase in refinery operations. A decline in leading indicators for US shale oil and a stalemate in US - Iran negotiations contribute to this outlook [5]. - Medium - to long - term: Crude oil has a bearish outlook due to OPEC's supply policies and potential supply - demand imbalances [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily News - Saudi Arabia is pushing the OPEC alliance to increase production again, which may put downward pressure on international oil prices as it could exacerbate the risk of supply surplus in the second half of the year. A similar move in the past might trigger a new price war [3]. - Saudi Arabia has lowered the official selling price of Arab Light crude oil to Asia in July by 20 cents per barrel to a nearly four - year low [3]. - Iraq's oil exports have decreased because it failed to receive and export oil from the Kurdish region and was forced to cut production to comply with OPEC quotas [4]. - Hamas leaders are ready to start a new round of cease - fire negotiations in Gaza [4]. Regional Fundamentals - US oil market data for the week of May 23: Crude exports increased by 794,000 barrels per day to 4.301 million barrels per day; domestic production increased by 900 barrels to 13.401 million barrels per day; commercial crude inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 2.795 million barrels to 440 million barrels (a 0.63% decline); strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 820,000 barrels to 401.3 million barrels (a 0.2% increase); commercial crude imports (excluding strategic reserves) were 6.351 million barrels per day, an increase of 262,000 barrels per day from the previous week [4]. - In China, the operating rate of major refineries decreased while that of Shandong local refineries increased this week. The production of gasoline and diesel both rose, with production from major refineries increasing and that from independent refineries decreasing. The sales - to - production ratio of gasoline increased and that of diesel decreased at local refineries. Gasoline and diesel inventories decreased significantly. The comprehensive profit of major refineries rebounded and that of local refineries improved [5]. Weekly View - This week, oil prices fluctuated. After the OPEC's July production increase decision was made, prices rose over the weekend due to geopolitical tensions such as the threat of oil supply disruptions from Ukraine's drone attacks on Russian territory, the ongoing stalemate in US - Iran negotiations, and wildfires in a major oil - producing province in Canada [5]. - Fundamentally, global oil inventories remained largely flat. US commercial crude inventories decreased more than expected, with absolute inventories lower than the past three years, and gasoline and diesel inventories also decreased more than expected [5]. - On the supply side, the number of US shale oil drilling rigs continued to decline. OPEC increased production by 411,000 barrels per day in July as expected, Iran's production increased in April, and the production compliance rate within OPEC + rose in April [5]. - On the demand side, global refinery profits declined slightly but were still at a high level compared to the same period last year. US refinery operations were volatile and slightly under - expected. The summer travel season has begun, leading to an increase in demand for gasoline and jet fuel [5].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Short - term: Oil prices are expected to maintain a volatile and upward - biased pattern, with Brent spreads stronger than the Dubai market. This is due to high short - term refinery profits, expected increase in refinery operations, decline in leading indicators of US shale oil, and the stalemate in US - Iran negotiations [5][6]. - Medium - to long - term: Crude oil is expected to be in a bearish pattern due to OPEC's supply policies and supply - demand surplus [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Oil Price Data - From May 28 to June 4, 2025, WTI prices decreased by $0.56, BRENT by $0.77, and DUBAI by $0.75. SC prices increased by 5.70, while OMAN decreased by 1.01 [3]. - For refined products, domestic gasoline prices increased by 20.00, and domestic diesel prices remained unchanged, with their spreads to BRENT also showing corresponding changes [3]. 3.2 Daily News - Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei stated that completely giving up uranium enrichment goes against Iran's interests and rejected US coercion [3]. - Saudi Arabia hopes OPEC+ to further increase oil production by at least 411,000 barrels per day in August and possibly September to regain market share [3]. - Canada's Natural Resources Company restarted the Jackfish 1 oil sands project, aiming to fully restore its 36,500 - barrel - per - day capacity by June 7 [4]. 3.3 Regional Fundamentals - In the week of May 23, US crude oil exports increased by 794,000 barrels per day to 4.301 million barrels per day, and domestic production increased by 900 barrels to 13.401 million barrels per day [4][5]. - Commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 2.795 million barrels to 440 million barrels, a 0.63% decline, while strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 820,000 barrels to 401.3 million barrels, a 0.2% increase [5]. - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 19.897 million barrels per day, a 0.22% decrease compared to the same period last year [5]. - In China, the main refinery operating rate decreased, while the Shandong local refinery operating rate increased. Gasoline and diesel production both increased, with significant inventory reduction. Main refinery comprehensive profits rebounded, and local refinery comprehensive profits improved [5]. 3.4 Weekly View - This week, oil prices fluctuated. After OPEC's July production increase decision, prices rose over the weekend due to geopolitical tensions such as Ukraine's drone attacks on Russian territory, the unresolved US - Iran negotiations, and wildfires in Canada's oil - producing province [5]. - Fundamentally, global oil inventories were basically flat, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased more than expected, and gasoline and diesel inventories also decreased significantly. On the supply side, the number of US shale oil drilling rigs continued to decline, OPEC increased production as expected, and Iran's production increased in April [5][6]. - On the demand side, global refinery profits slightly declined but were still at a high level compared to the same period last year. US refinery operations were volatile and slightly lower than expected. With the start of the summer travel season, gasoline and jet fuel demand increased [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term: Oil prices are expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger pattern, with the Brent monthly spread stronger than the Dubai market. The short - term high refinery profits are expected to lead to an increase in refinery operations. The leading indicators of US shale oil are declining, and the US - Iran negotiation is at a stalemate [5]. - Medium - to - long - term: Crude oil is in a bearish pattern due to OPEC supply policies and supply - demand surplus [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents 3.1 Price Data - **International Crude Oil**: From May 27 to June 3, WTI increased by $2.62 to $63.41, BRENT increased by $2.85 to $65.63, and DUBAI increased by $1.16 to $64.89 [3]. - **Domestic Oil Products**: From May 27 to June 3, domestic gasoline increased by 50 yuan to 7710 yuan, and domestic diesel increased by 63 yuan to 6639 yuan [3]. - **Other Oil - Related Products**: From May 27 to June 3, Japan naphtha CFR decreased by $9.59, Singapore fuel oil 380CST decreased by $10, and HH natural gas decreased by $0.16 [3][12]. 3.2 News and Events - **US - Iran Negotiation**: The US proposed allowing Iran to conduct low - level uranium enrichment, but Iranian officials said the proposal was "incoherent and disjointed", and the next round of talks' time is uncertain. Iran will respond in a few days [3][4]. - **OPEC Production**: OPEC's crude oil production in May increased by 200,000 barrels per day to 27.54 million barrels per day [4]. - **US API Inventory**: The US API crude oil inventory for the week ending May 30 was - 3.3 million barrels, exceeding the expected - 0.9 million barrels [4]. 3.3 Regional Fundamentals - **US EIA Report**: In the week of May 23, US crude oil exports increased by 794,000 barrels per day to 4.301 million barrels per day; domestic crude oil production increased by 900 barrels to 13.401 million barrels per day; commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 2.795 million barrels to 440 million barrels, a decrease of 0.63%; strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 820,000 barrels to 401.3 million barrels, an increase of 0.2% [4][5]. - **China's Oil Market**: This week, the operating rate of major refineries decreased, while that of Shandong local refineries increased. The production of gasoline and diesel in China both increased. Gasoline and diesel inventories decreased significantly. The comprehensive profit of major refineries rebounded, and that of local refineries improved [5]. 3.4 Market Analysis - **Supply**: US shale oil drilling rig numbers continue to decline. OPEC increased production by 411,000 barrels per day as expected in July, and Iran's production increased in April. The internal production compliance rate of OPEC + increased in April [5]. - **Demand**: Global refinery profits declined slightly but are still at a high level compared to the same period last year. US refinery operations were volatile and slightly lower than expected. The summer travel season has begun, and the demand for gasoline and jet fuel has increased [5].

Group 1 - OPEC+ crude oil exports in May decreased instead of increasing, indicating a tighter market condition [1] - The futures market is experiencing a significant rise in cross-period price spreads, reflecting a shift towards a tighter pricing environment [1] - Macroeconomic disturbances on both supply and demand sides are frequent, suggesting that oil prices may enter a volatile phase within the month [1] Group 2 - Summer demand is expected to create buying support, but the optimal entry point for bullish positions may not be immediate [1]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic gasoline and diesel prices in China will increase due to fluctuations in international oil prices, with specific adjustments taking effect on June 3rd at 24:00 [1][3]. Price Adjustment Details - From June 3rd, the price of gasoline will increase by 65 yuan per ton, while diesel will rise by 60 yuan per ton. On average, the price per liter for 92 gasoline, 95 gasoline, and 0 diesel will increase by 0.05 yuan [1]. - Filling a 50L tank with 92 gasoline will cost an additional 2.5 yuan [1]. Historical Context - Since 2025, there have been five price reductions for refined oil retail limits, and 92 gasoline is expected to return to the "6 yuan era" for the first time since the end of 2021 [3]. Market Dynamics - The international oil price is experiencing a mixed trend due to various factors. Concerns over oversupply and short-selling by international capital have contributed to price declines, while geopolitical risks and seasonal demand have supported price increases [3]. - The "OPEC+" decision to accelerate production in July has shifted market expectations, intensifying concerns about oversupply [3]. - Seasonal factors, such as the summer driving season in Europe and the U.S., are contributing to a rebound in refined oil consumption demand, which supports higher international oil prices [3]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that international oil prices will continue to fluctuate, with potential for increased volatility due to frequent adjustments in U.S. tariff policies and geopolitical instability [3].

原油成品油早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/06/03 | 日期 | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB dated bre | BRENT 1- 2月差 | WTI-BREN T | DUBAI-B RT（EFS | NYMEX RB OB | RBOB-BR T | NYMEX HO | HO-BRT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | nt | | | | | | | | | 2025/05/26 | - | 64.74 | - | - | 0.62 | - | 2.23 | - | - | - | - | | 2025/05/27 | 60.89 | 64.09 | 63.53 | 0.26 | 0.52 | -3.20 | 2.15 | 207.15 | 22.91 | 207.94 | 23.24 | | 2025/05/28 | 61.84 | 64.90 | 63.65 | 0.16 | 0.58 | -3.06 | 1.88 | 2 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term oil prices are oscillating strongly. In the medium - long term, crude oil will maintain a bearish pattern due to OPEC's supply policy and supply - demand surplus [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily News - Iran's Foreign Minister is "not sure" about approaching an agreement with the US. While US President Trump said they are "very close" to a deal, which may be reached in the "coming weeks" [3] - After the US court ruled the tariff illegal, oil prices rose and then fell. The ruling boosted market risk - appetite and eased concerns about global economic slowdown. The White House will appeal the decision. The possible new sanctions on Russia led to a slight increase in oil prices, but the expected OPEC+ production increase in July offset some of this impact [3] - The OPEC+ ministerial meeting did not adjust the oil production policy and plans to use 2025 production as the benchmark for 2027. The potential production increase plans of eight countries will be discussed on Saturday. Goldman Sachs expects OPEC+ to maintain production after the July increase [4] 3.2 Regional Fundamentals - EIA report: In the week of May 23, US crude oil exports increased by 794,000 barrels per day to 4.301 million barrels per day, and domestic production increased by 900 barrels to 13.401 million barrels per day [4] - EIA report: In the week of May 23, US commercial crude inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 2.795 million barrels to 440 million barrels, a decrease of 0.63%. Strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 820,000 barrels to 401.3 million barrels, an increase of 0.2% [4] - EIA report: The four - week average supply of US refined oil products was 19.897 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.22% compared to the same period last year [4] - In the week of May 23, US commercial crude imports (excluding strategic reserves) were 6.351 million barrels per day, an increase of 262,000 barrels per day from the previous week [4] - This week, the operating rate of major refineries in China increased, while that of Shandong local refineries decreased. The production of gasoline and diesel in China both increased, with production from major refineries rising and that from local refineries falling. The sales - to - production ratio of local refineries for both gasoline and diesel increased. Gasoline and diesel inventories decreased. The comprehensive profit of major refineries rebounded month - on - month, while that of local refineries decreased [4] 3.3 Weekly Viewpoints - This week, oil prices oscillated. OPEC+ is discussing a large - scale production increase in July without a final decision. The fifth round of US - Iran negotiations ended without a conclusive result [5] - Fundamentally, global refined oil inventories decreased this week. US commercial crude inventories increased seasonally, with absolute inventories lower than the historical average, and gasoline and diesel inventories increased slightly [5] - On the supply side, the number of US crude oil drilling rigs decreased significantly, and OPEC's planned production increase was in line with expectations. On the demand side, global refinery profits declined slightly but remained high year - on - year. US refinery operating rates increased slightly, the summer travel season is approaching, global flight numbers are increasing, and the operating rate of domestic refineries is recovering [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical market continues to fluctuate, and the market is waiting for a clearer trend. The increase in production by OPEC+ and geopolitical factors are the main factors affecting the market [1][2]. - The prices of chemical products have intensified in recent games. The increase in container shipping volume from China to the United States and the expected increase in production by OPEC+ have become trading points. The market is worried about a decline in crude oil prices in the future, and investors generally view the chemical market with a fluctuating mindset [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - Crude oil market continues to fluctuate. Geopolitical factors support oil prices, but the possibility of OPEC+ increasing production limits the increase in oil prices [1]. - Chemical products continue to fluctuate and consolidate. The resumption of device maintenance and production and the improvement of demand have become the focus of the game [2]. 3.2 Variety Viewpoints | Variety | Viewpoint | Mid - term Outlook | | --- | --- | --- | | Crude Oil | Concerns about production increase persist, and oil prices are still under pressure | Oscillating weakly [4] | | LPG | Domestic demand remains weak, and the rebound of PG is limited | Oscillating weakly [6] | | Asphalt | The futures price of asphalt is overestimated and waiting to fall | Oscillating weakly [4] | | High - sulfur Fuel Oil | The overestimated state of high - sulfur fuel oil is waiting to fall | Oscillating weakly [4][5] | | Low - sulfur Fuel Oil | The futures price of low - sulfur fuel oil fluctuates with crude oil | Oscillating weakly [6] | | Methanol | The inland price has declined slightly, and it fluctuates in the short term | Oscillating [14] | | Urea | The domestic rigid demand and export demand have not been linked, and the futures market fluctuates weakly | Oscillating [14] | | PX | Supply and demand are tightening, and PX prices are rising | Oscillating [8] | | PTA | The market lacks driving force, and PTA maintains an oscillating pattern | Oscillating [8] | | Ethylene Glycol | The reduction in polyester production drags down the demand for EG, but the expectation of inventory reduction still supports the futures price | Oscillating [10][11] | | Short - fiber | The basis strengthens, and the pattern of short - fiber remains healthy | Oscillating [11][12] | | Bottle Chip | Fluctuates and consolidates following raw materials | Oscillating [13] | | PP | Supply and demand are still under pressure, and PP fluctuates weakly | Oscillating weakly [16][17] | | Plastic | The fundamental pressure needs to be alleviated by increased maintenance, and plastic fluctuates | Oscillating [16] | | Styrene | The actual performance is still poor, and styrene fluctuates weakly | Oscillating weakly [8][9] | | PVC | Weak expectations and low valuations, and the futures market fluctuates | Oscillating [19] | | Caustic Soda | Strong current situation and weak expectations, and caustic soda fluctuates | Oscillating weakly [19] | 3.3 Variety Data Monitoring 3.3.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes, such as SC (M1 - M2) with a latest value of - 3 and a change of 4, and WTI (M1 - M2) with a latest value of 0.64 and a change of 0.04 [20]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each variety has corresponding basis and warehouse receipt data, for example, the basis of asphalt is 109 with a change of 10, and the warehouse receipt is 86510 [21]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: There are also specific values and changes for inter - variety spreads, like 1 - month PP - 3MA with a latest value of 6 and a change of 0 [22]. 3.3.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring The report mentions basis and spread monitoring for multiple chemical varieties such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., but specific data details are not fully presented in the provided text [23][35][47].