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日本央行行长植田和男:目前难以就应对类似滞涨的局势做出决策。
news flash· 2025-05-01 07:01
日本央行行长植田和男:目前难以就应对类似滞涨的局势做出决策。 ...
今夜!美股惊魂!
Zhong Guo Ji Jin Bao· 2025-04-30 16:14
大家晚上好,已经开启假期模式了吗?今晚我们简单看点海外市场的消息。 美股惊魂 4月30日晚间,美股上演惊魂一刻,盘初出现全面抛售,由于一系列疲软的数据引发市场对经济放缓和顽固通胀的担忧,交易员情绪紧 张。 道指一度暴跌近800点,纳指一度跌近3%,随后上演深"V"走势,跌幅收窄,截至发稿,道指跌约200点,纳指跌约1.2%,标普500指数 跌约0.9%。 经济数据显示出悲观信号。ADP研究机构的数据显示,美国企业4月招聘速度放缓至九个月以来的最低水平,表明对劳动力的需求正在 减弱。美国第一季度国内生产总值(GDP)出现自2022年以来的首次萎缩,部分原因是关税生效前进口激增,也受到消费者支出放缓的 影响。同时,一项通胀指标加速上行。 Jonestrading的首席市场策略师迈克尔·奥鲁克表示:"经济数据低于预期,而GDP中的价格成分却高于预期,这引发了市场对'滞涨'的担 忧。虽然GDP数据只是略低于预期,但似乎存在企业在关税实施前提前进口以及库存积累的现象,这将在未来拖累经济增长。" 周三发布的报告在通胀方面也带来了一些缓解信号。一项剔除食品和能源的商品通胀指标今年首次出现下降。核心服务价格(不包括住 房和能 ...
华尔街又一机构“认栽” 汇丰大幅下调标普500指数目标点位
智通财经网· 2025-04-29 15:35
华尔街又一机构"认栽",这次是汇丰银行。 在这种环境下,汇丰建议投资者保持防御性持仓,偏好经济下行中抗压能力较强的行业,例如消费必需 品(如食品、日用品)与医疗保健。在滞涨时期,大宗商品与医疗行业的表现也通常优于大盘;相反,公 用事业和可选消费品公司往往表现不佳。 智通财经APP获悉,由于对美国经济增长放缓、通胀持续粘性以及债券收益率下滑的预期,汇丰周二宣 布将标普500指数的年底目标点位从6700点大幅下调至5600点。 这一决定与今年以来多家大银行因关税担忧而调低美股预期的动作一致。汇丰表示,在全球经济前景依 旧不明、关税政策仍具不确定性的情况下,建议客户采取防御性策略应对市场动荡。 汇丰美洲区股票策略主管Nicole Inui与分析师Preethkar Rajamani在报告中指出:"市场将在衰退和滞涨的 担忧之间来回震荡,直到贸易不确定性缓解、美联储降息、或通胀压力不再加剧。" 他们预计美联储将在6月启动降息周期,但指出通胀与关税方面的忧虑仍需数月时间才能消散。因此, 即使利率政策出现转向,市场仍会高度关注关键经济数据,并据此进行敏感反应。 他们表示:"如果硬数据转弱,市场将迅速进入'衰退交易'模式; ...
牛市趋势并未被打破 贵金属表现依旧受到市场瞩目
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-04-29 06:16
来源:银河期货 作者:银河期货 研报正文 第一部分 前言概要 【行情回顾】 4月,贵金属表现依旧受到市场瞩目。伦敦金上触历史新高3500.12美元/盎司,月涨幅7%;伦敦银受到黄金的托举 回到近期高位、但未能突破34.5附近的阻力,月跌幅2%。沪金触及836.3元/克的历史高点,月涨幅9%。沪银相对疲 软,月跌幅2.4%。 【市场展望】 往后看,各经济体对于关税的博弈仍有不断反复的可能,关税政策进展和美国经济基本面间的演绎节奏具有高度的 不确定性,预期和现实间的差距将成为贵金属价格波动的放大器,而黄金作为对冲滞涨风险的优质资产、且贵金属 当前牛市的趋势并未被打破,可仍以低多思路为主。 【策略推荐】 1.单边:延续低多思路。 2.套利:观望。 3.期权:领式看涨期权。 风险提示:央行购金不及预期,关税谈判进展超预期、美国经济韧性超预期、光伏需求不及预期。 第二部分 行情复盘与前瞻 一、行情回顾 4月,贵金属表现依旧受到市场瞩目。伦敦金从3122美元启动,中间受到流动性的拖累出现回调,而后开启快速拉 涨的走势,一度上触历史新高3500.12美元/盎司,月涨幅7%;伦敦银月初的回调更深,此后受到黄金的托举回到近 期 ...
美国关税政策松动,金价短期进入盘整期
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-04-28 01:20
Investment Rating - The industry maintains an "Accumulate" rating [5] Core Views - The gold market is expected to enter a consolidation phase in the short term, while still possessing upward momentum in the medium term. Recent price fluctuations are attributed to easing tariff policies and profit-taking by bullish investors. Concerns about the sustainability of central bank gold purchases are also noted [1][36] - For industrial metals, copper is seeing a recovery in prices due to increased downstream operating rates and a significant drop in inventories. The market sentiment has improved following the easing of tariff tensions, although uncertainties from trade conflicts remain [2] - In the energy metals sector, lithium production is being constrained by cost pressures, leading to a reduction in operational rates. The market is closely monitoring inventory levels for signs of a turning point [3] Summary by Sections Weekly Data Tracking - The non-ferrous metal sector has generally seen an increase in prices this week, with specific metals experiencing varied price movements [12][18] - The overall non-ferrous metal index rose by 1.5%, with energy metals up by 2.9% and precious metals down by 2.5% [18] Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Downstream operating rates have improved, and global copper inventories have decreased significantly to 641,000 tons, down by 55,000 tons week-on-week. The market anticipates a price recovery due to increased demand and tight supply conditions [2] - **Aluminum**: The easing of U.S. tariff policies is expected to support aluminum prices in the short term, despite an increase in production capacity [2] Energy Metals - **Lithium**: The production of lithium salts is being curtailed due to rising costs, with current production rates at 45%. The market is awaiting a potential inventory turning point [3] - **Silicon Metal**: High inventory levels are limiting price increases, with current social inventory at 602,000 tons. The market remains in a loose supply-demand balance [3] Key Stocks - Recommended stocks include Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Chalco, all rated as "Buy" with projected earnings per share (EPS) growth [7]
黄金股板块盘中回调,黄金股票ETF(517400)跌超3%,机构表示金价支撑仍然较为强劲
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-04-22 03:04
Core Viewpoint - The gold stock sector experienced a pullback, with the gold stock ETF (517400) dropping over 3%, but institutional analysts believe that gold prices remain strongly supported [1]. Group 1: Economic Context - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell expressed concerns about inflation during a recent speech, indicating that as the economy slows, unemployment is likely to rise, which could lead to increased inflation due to tariffs being passed on to the public [1]. - The CME FedWatch tool indicates that the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates four times in 2025, specifically in June, July, September, and December, with each cut being 25 basis points [1]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Given the backdrop of potential stagflation risks in the U.S. economy due to tariffs, the gold stock ETF (517400) is seen as an ideal tool for investors to capitalize on opportunities in the gold market [1]. - The ETF tracks the CSI Gold Industry Stock Index (index code: 931238.CSI), which includes large-cap A-share and Hong Kong-listed companies involved in gold mining, refining, and sales, reflecting the overall performance of the gold industry [1]. - Investors without stock accounts can access investment opportunities in the gold industry through the linked fund of the gold stock ETF (021674) [1].
有色金属行业周报:避险与滞涨逻辑演绎,金价延续强势
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-04-20 08:23
Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the industry [5] Core Views - The report emphasizes the strong performance of gold due to increased demand for safe-haven assets amid economic uncertainties and rising inflation expectations [1][35] - The report highlights the mixed performance of industrial metals, particularly copper and aluminum, with market direction remaining uncertain due to tariff policies and supply-demand dynamics [2] - Energy metals, particularly lithium, are facing cost pressures that are limiting production, while the demand for lithium remains stable [3] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices are supported by increased ETF holdings, with a notable weekly increase of 2.58 tons in SPDR Gold ETF [1] - The market is shifting from a "hot economy + inflation" narrative to a stagflation outlook, which historically benefits gold prices [1][35] Industrial Metals - Copper prices have shown a flat performance, with global copper inventories at 695,000 tons, down by 62,000 tons week-on-week [2] - Aluminum prices are expected to remain volatile due to U.S. tariff policies, with theoretical operating capacity in the electrolytic aluminum industry at 43.81 million tons, a slight increase from the previous week [2] Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate prices have decreased slightly, with industrial-grade lithium carbonate at 70,000 yuan/ton, while production is constrained by cost pressures [3] - The report notes a 3% decrease in lithium carbonate production to 17,400 tons, with an operating rate of 46% [3] Key Stocks - Recommended stocks include Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Chifeng Jilong Gold for precious metals; Luoyang Molybdenum and China Hongqiao for industrial metals; and Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium for energy metals [8]
ETO交易平台:关税绞杀下的美国经济,从"温和放缓"到"滞涨倒计时"
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-04-16 06:14
Economic Outlook - The Peterson Institute for International Economics warns that despite temporarily avoiding a technical recession, the U.S. economy is facing significant challenges due to a combination of tariffs, tightened immigration policies, and budget cuts, leading to a projected GDP growth drop from 2.5% in 2024 to 0.1% in 2025, with inflation expectations rising to 4.5% and unemployment potentially reaching 5% [1][4]. Tariff Impact - The report identifies recent tariff increases as the "core engine" of economic slowdown, with the tariff rate on imported goods reaching 28% in Q1 2025, a 15 percentage point increase from 2023, resulting in a 9.7% year-over-year rise in the consumer price index for imported goods [3][4]. - The hidden cost of tariffs is significant, with every $1 in tariff revenue costing consumers $1.20, affecting essential goods and leading to an 18% increase in raw material costs for manufacturers [3][4]. Labor Market and Immigration - The tightening of immigration policies is projected to reduce legal immigration quotas by 40% compared to 2023, leading to a 1.2 percentage point decline in labor force participation, impacting approximately 3 million jobs in retail and manufacturing [4][5]. - The labor shortage is expected to increase business costs and reduce potential consumer demand by $80 billion annually [4]. Government Budget Cuts - A 20% budget cut in government efficiency departments is causing delays in customs clearance and small business subsidy approvals, exacerbating challenges for the private sector [4][5]. - 38% of businesses have reportedly abandoned plans to expand into overseas markets due to government approval delays [4]. Consumer Spending and Inflation - Rising inflation is eroding wage growth, leading to a contraction in consumer spending, with core retail sales declining by 0.3% in March [5][6]. - The economic slowdown in the U.S. is expected to impact global markets, with emerging market export orders declining by 15% and a projected 0.8 percentage point reduction in growth for economies reliant on U.S. exports [5][6]. Federal Reserve Policy Challenges - The report warns that the Federal Reserve may face a "stagflation paradox," where high inflation and low growth limit policy options, potentially leading to a repeat of the 1970s scenario where interest rates were raised significantly to combat inflation at the cost of prolonged recession [8].
周度经济观察:关税阴霾临近,市场焦点切换-2025-04-01
Guotou Securities· 2025-04-01 05:42
Economic Recovery - In January-February, the revenue of industrial enterprises increased by 2.8% year-on-year, up by 0.7 percentage points compared to the entire year of 2024[4] - The profits of industrial enterprises decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, but this is an improvement of 3 percentage points compared to the entire year of 2024[4] - The manufacturing PMI for March was 50.5, a rise of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, marking a nearly one-year high[6] Trade and Tariff Impact - The ongoing increase in U.S. tariffs has extended the "export rush" effect, supporting inventory replenishment and order increases for enterprises[2] - The upcoming U.S. tariff investigation results are expected to significantly impact global trade order and suppress market risk appetite[11] - The U.S. economy continues to weaken, with the Markit manufacturing PMI dropping to 49.8 in March, indicating a contraction[18] Market Trends - The equity market has seen a shift in style, with technology stocks experiencing notable adjustments and a reduction in trading volume, indicating a convergence of market divergence[2] - Risk appetite in the market is declining, with gold prices expected to remain high due to geopolitical uncertainties and economic cooling in the U.S.[22] - The performance of dividend and consumer sectors has been relatively strong as investors seek opportunities outside of technology stocks[11]
宏观市场月报:美国经济滞涨风险上升
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-03-03 01:48
日期 2025 年 2 月 28 日 类别 宏观市场月报 宏观金融研究团队 研究员:何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 020-38909340 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3008762 研究员:黄雯昕(宏观国债) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3051589 研究员:董彬(股指外汇) 021-60635731 dongbin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3054198 美国经济滞涨风险上升 请阅读正文后的声明 月度报告 近期研究报告 《宏观专题-20250120-特朗普 2.0 与 2025 年宏观市场展望》 《宏观专题-20241015-选情胶着的 美国大选会否出现十月惊奇》 《宏观专题-20240930-非典型补库 周期与大类资产波动》 《贵金属专题-20240820-金价大涨 后的供需基本面变化》 《宏观专题-20240607-美国总统大 选对地缘政治和宏观市场的影响》 《宏观专题-20240422-央行降息、 实体补库与再通胀过程》 观点摘要 请阅读正文后的声 ...