期 货 研 究 2025 年 09 月 12 日 铝：震荡偏强 氧化铝：弱势运行 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 20915 | 125 | 310 | ૩૨૨ | 820 | | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 21005 | l | l | l | l | | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2679 | 57 | 89 | 114 | 214 | | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 106885 | 13636 | -44331 | ୧୫୫୪ | -27009 | | | 电解铝 | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 204582 | 8142 | -2035 | -21363 | 1021 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Information - Research variety: Beans - Report cycle: Daily - Date of report: September 4, 2025 - Researcher: Qi Jianhua [1] 2. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 3. Core View - Currently, domestic soybean prices fluctuate, recent imported soybean prices trend weakly, port inventory accumulation slows, and enterprise crushing profits weaken again. The price of the main soybean futures contract A2511 oscillates around the 5 - day moving average, and the short - term bearish power on the disk weakens. The price of the A2511 contract may continue to fluctuate around the 5 - day moving average [15]. 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Futures Market - **Contract行情**: On September 4, 2025, the main continuous contract of DCE soybean futures oscillated strongly. The opening price was 3951 yuan/ton, the highest was 3982 yuan/ton, the lowest was 3951 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 3965 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton or 0.03% from the previous day. The trading volume was 101,673 lots, the open interest was 199,022 lots, and the daily increase in positions was - 6675 lots [2]. - **Variety price**: Different contracts have different closing prices, price changes, and trading volumes. For example, the A2509 contract closed at 4056 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan/ton or 0.76%; the A2511 contract closed at 3965 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton or 0.03% [3]. 4.2 Spot Market - The basis of soybean No. 1 today is 95 yuan/ton, showing a slight weakening. The total registered warehouse receipts of soybean No. 1 today are 8510 lots, a decrease of 64 lots compared with the previous trading day [5]. 4.3 Influencing Factors - **Important events**: The average domestic soybean price today is 4039 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.81%. The prices have fluctuated in recent days. The soybean inventory in major ports today is 6.7903 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.76%, and the inventory accumulation speed has slowed [8][10]. - **Industry information**: The recent arrival - at - port duty - paid prices of imported soybeans are generally weak. The recent arrival - at - port duty - paid price of US Gulf soybeans is 4583.97 yuan/ton, that of Brazilian soybeans is 3993.74 yuan/ton, and that of Argentine soybeans is 3852.45 yuan/ton. The enterprise crushing profit has continued to decline from a high level and has weakened again [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The price of the soybean meal m2601 contract is expected to mainly fluctuate within a range in the short term, as the approaching US soybean harvest season clarifies production expectations, and concerns about the uncertainty of US soybean export prospects lead to a continued decline in overnight CBOT soybean futures. Domestically, the high volume of imported soybean crushing results in a situation where the production of soybean meal exceeds the提货 quantity of terminal feed and breeding enterprises, weakening the price - holding intention of oil mills [12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market 3.1.1 Contract Quotes - On September 4, 2025, the soybean meal m2601 contract showed a weak oscillating trend, with the price rising first and then falling. It closed at 3048 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan/ton or 0.20% from the previous day. The daily trading volume was 956,943 lots, and the open interest was 2,043,281 lots [2]. 3.1.2 Variety Prices - On the same day, the prices of all soybean meal futures contracts declined. The total open interest of the variety contracts was 4,203,542 lots, an increase of 20,034 lots from the previous trading day [3]. 3.2 Spot Market 3.2.1 Spot Quotes - On September 4, 2025, the spot quotes of soybean meal in some domestic regions were stable with a slight decline. For example, the price in Rizhao decreased by 10 yuan to 2990 yuan, while the prices in Zhangjiagang, Tianjin, and Dongguan remained unchanged at 2990 yuan, 3060 yuan, and 2960 yuan respectively, all with a protein content of 43% [7][8]. 3.2.2 Registered Warehouse Receipts - The total number of soybean meal registered warehouse receipts increased by 3,750 lots to 19,375 lots. The warehouse receipts at Nantong Cargill increased from 0 to 3,750 lots, while those at other warehouses remained unchanged [9]. 3.3 Influencing Factors 3.3.1 Industry News - The import cost of soybeans decreased today. The import cost of US soybeans was 4544 yuan/ton, a decrease of 34 yuan/ton from the previous day, reaching a more than three - week low. The import cost of Brazilian soybeans was 3904 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29 yuan/ton, hitting a four - week low. The import cost of Argentine soybeans was 3774 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17 yuan/ton, refreshing a more than three - week low. - As of the week ending August 27, Argentine farmers sold 656,300 tons of 2024/2025 soybeans, bringing the cumulative sales volume to 3,053,870 tons [9]. 3.4 Market Outlook - With the approaching US soybean harvest season and the uncertainty of US soybean export prospects, the overnight CBOT soybean futures continued to decline. Domestically, the high crushing volume of imported soybeans and the situation where the production of soybean meal exceeds the demand of terminal enterprises weaken the oil mills' price - holding intention. The price of the m2601 contract is expected to mainly fluctuate within a range in the short term [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Rubber Industry - The fundamentals of natural rubber (NR) have changed little. There is still cost support from the upstream, while downstream players are resistant to high - priced raw materials. The reference range for the 01 contract is 15,000 - 16,500. Follow - up attention should be paid to the raw material output in the peak production season of the main producing areas and whether the La Nina phenomenon affects the supply. If raw material supply is smooth, consider shorting at high levels; if not, the rubber price is expected to remain high [1]. Log Industry - Currently, the log market shows a volatile pattern. The spot market continues to weaken, and traders' import enthusiasm has declined. The arrival volume remains low, and it is expected that the supply in September will continue to be low. The inventory is low and has been decreasing for several weeks. Demand remains above 60,000 cubic meters but has not improved significantly. As it gradually enters the seasonal peak season, observe whether the shipment volume improves. The current valuation of the futures market is relatively low, and it is in a stage of exploring the bottom. In the context of the peak - season expectation game, the strategy suggests buying on dips [3]. Industrial Silicon Industry - From the cost side, raw material prices are rising, and the electricity price in the southwest region will gradually increase during the dry season, so the cost center of industrial silicon will rise in the future. Although the current output of industrial silicon has increased month - on - month, there are also news of capacity clearance, and small furnaces may be shut down. In terms of supply and demand, both supply and demand increased in August, maintaining a tight balance. If some capacity is cleared in the long term, the supply pressure will be reduced. Therefore, the strategy suggests buying on dips, but also note that while the output increases, the inventory and warehouse receipts are also increasing, and supply pressure is beginning to show. The main price fluctuation range is expected to be 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton [4]. Polysilicon Industry - In September, although there is production reduction on the supply side, there are also factories resuming production to make up for the supply, so the overall reduction in supply is not obvious. On the demand side, the silicon wafer production schedule has increased slightly month - on - month, and there may be a slight inventory accumulation pattern in September. The downstream has replenished inventory significantly since late August, and the spot price transmission mechanism is smooth. In the future, the futures market trades more on policy expectations rather than fundamentals, and short - term price fluctuations are likely to occur, so caution is needed [5]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry Soda Ash - The futures market lacks a main trading logic and shows a narrow - range volatile pattern. The fundamental oversupply problem still exists. Although the inventory did not accumulate this week, it has actually been transferred to the middle and lower reaches, and the trade inventory continues to rise. The previously reduced - production devices have resumed, and the weekly output has returned to a high level of 750,000 tons. In the medium term, there is no expectation of a significant increase in downstream capacity, so the demand for soda ash will continue the previous rigid - demand pattern. After the traditional summer maintenance season in the soda ash industry ends, with high supply, if there is no actual capacity exit or load reduction, the inventory will be further pressured. The overall supply - demand pattern is still bearish, and short - selling on rallies can be considered [6]. Glass - The spot market had good transactions this week, and the inventory decreased. At the beginning of the week, news about the conversion of coal - fired gas production lines to clean energy in the Shahe area triggered a rise in the futures market, but the specific conversion time is undetermined, and the expected shutdown time is limited. There are still some restart and ignition plans in the future. Currently, the factory inventory in the Shahe area is gradually increasing, and the middle - stream inventory has not been significantly reduced. In terms of industry supply and demand, although the deep - processing orders have improved seasonally, they are still weak, and the low - emissivity (Low - E) glass production start - up rate remains low, showing no obvious peak - season characteristics. In the long - term, at the bottom of the real - estate cycle, the completion volume is shrinking, and the industry ultimately needs capacity clearance to solve the oversupply problem. Short - term, it is advisable to wait and see; in the medium - term, pay attention to the actual peak - season demand [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rubber Industry Spot Prices and Basis - The price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai decreased by 1.00% to 14,900 yuan/ton on September 11 compared to September 10. The basis of some varieties changed, such as the basis of a certain variety decreasing by 8.06% [1]. Monthly Spreads - The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 0.51%, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 22.22%, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 0.49% [1]. Fundamentals - In July, the production of Thailand, Indonesia, and India changed by 1.61%, 12.09%, and - 2.17% respectively, while China's production decreased by 1.30. The weekly start - up rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires increased. The domestic tire production in July decreased by 8.16%, while the tire export volume increased by 10.51%. The total import volume of natural rubber in July increased by 2.47% [1]. Inventory Changes - The bonded area inventory decreased by 0.64%, while the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE increased by 1.99%. The出库 rate of dry rubber in the bonded warehouse and general - trade warehouse increased [1]. Log Industry Futures and Spot Prices - The 2511 log contract closed at 804.5 yuan/cubic meter on September 11, down 2 yuan/cubic meter from the previous day. The prices of major benchmark delivery - grade spot logs remained unchanged. The new round of FOB quotes has loosened to the range of 114 US dollars/JAS cubic meter [3]. Supply - The port shipping volume decreased by 3.87%, and the number of ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased. The inventory in major ports decreased, with the national coniferous log inventory at 2.94 million cubic meters as of September 5 [3]. Demand - The daily average shipment volume decreased slightly last week but remained above 60,000 cubic meters, with the daily average shipment volume at 61,200 cubic meters as of September 5 [3]. Industrial Silicon Industry Spot Prices and Basis of the Main Contract - The prices of various types of industrial silicon, such as East China oxygen - passing S15530, East China SI4210, and Xinjiang 99 silicon, increased, and the basis of some varieties also increased [4]. Monthly Spreads - The spreads between different contracts changed significantly, such as the 2509 - 2510 spread decreasing by 5032.35% [4]. Fundamental Data - The national production of industrial silicon increased by 14.01%, and the production in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan also increased. The start - up rates in different regions increased. The production of organic silicon DMC increased, while the production of recycled aluminum alloy decreased. The export volume of industrial silicon increased by 8.32%. The inventory in different regions and the social inventory increased slightly [4]. Polysilicon Industry Spot Prices and Basis - The average prices of N - type polysilicon materials and silicon wafers remained mostly unchanged, but the N - type material basis decreased by 61.80% [5]. Futures Prices and Monthly Spreads - The main contract price increased by 1.56%, and the spreads between different contracts changed, such as the current - month - to - first - continuous spread decreasing by 30.60% [5]. Fundamental Data - The weekly and monthly production of polysilicon and silicon wafers increased. The import and export volumes of polysilicon and silicon wafers also changed, with the net export volume of polysilicon decreasing and that of silicon wafers increasing [5]. Inventory Changes - The polysilicon inventory increased by 3.79%, while the silicon wafer inventory decreased by 1.78%. The polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 4.34% [5]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry Glass - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of glass in different regions and different contracts changed, with the 05 basis of glass decreasing by 10.92% [6]. Soda Ash - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of soda ash in different regions and different contracts increased slightly, while the 05 basis of soda ash decreased by 11.32% [6]. Supply - The soda ash start - up rate increased by 1.24%, the weekly production of soda ash increased by 1.25%, the float - glass daily melting volume increased by 0.38%, and the photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged [6]. Inventory - The glass inventory decreased by 2.33%, the soda ash factory inventory decreased by 1.35%, and the soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory increased by 2.70% [6]. Real - Estate Data - The year - on - year changes in new construction area, construction area, completion area, and sales area of real estate were 0.09%, - 2.43%, - 0.03%, and - 6.50% respectively [6].

Group 1: General Information - The reports cover multiple industries including oils & fats, meals, hogs, corn, cotton, eggs, and sugar, with data as of September 12, 2025 [1][3][6][8][11][13][17] Group 2: Industry-Specific Investment Ratings - There is no information provided on industry investment ratings in the given reports Group 3: Core Views Oils & Fats - For palm oil, closely monitor if the futures price can stabilize above 4,400 ringgit. A break below may open new downside. Domestically, short - term support is at 9,000 yuan. For soybean oil, the CBOT December contract may briefly fall below 50 cents if CBOT soybeans decline further. On the domestic front, downstream demand is increasing, but supply is still ample, and the January contract of Dalian soybean oil may trade in a narrow range before the USDA report [1] Meals - The downside for meal prices is limited. In the fourth quarter, domestic soybean supply is not abundant, and cost support for meals remains strong. The market awaits the USDA September supply - demand report, with expectations of a lower yield but high production [3] Hogs - Spot prices have limited downside as they are at a low level. Demand is slowly rising, but it's uncertain if it can absorb the supply. The market may see a short - term rebound but has potential for further decline due to large supply pressure [6] Corn - The market is divided regionally. In the short term, supply and demand are both weak, and the futures price is under pressure. In the medium term, it is expected to remain weak [8] Cotton - In the short term, domestic cotton prices may trade in a range. In the long term, they may face pressure when new cotton hits the market [11] Eggs - Egg prices may rebound in early September but with limited upside. A decline risk increases after the second and third rounds of restocking end [14] Sugar - Raw sugar supply pressure is high, and it is expected to remain weak. However, the upside for the sugar - ethanol ratio in Brazil is limited. The sugar market sentiment is weak, and prices are expected to fluctuate [17] Group 4: Industry - Specific Data Summaries Oils & Fats - **Soybean Oil**: Spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 0.35% to 8,540 yuan; futures price (Y2601) increased by 0.07% to 8,568 yuan; basis (Y2601) decreased by 11.69% to 272 yuan [1] - **Palm Oil**: Spot price in Guangdong decreased by 0.54% to 9,220 yuan; futures price (P2601) remained unchanged at 9,446 yuan; basis (P2601) decreased by 28.41% to - 226 yuan; import profit increased by 18.57% to - 195 yuan; warehouse receipts increased by 5.72% to 1,570 [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: Spot price in Jiangsu increased by 0.30% to 9,940 yuan; futures price (OI601) increased by 0.87% to 10,023 yuan; basis (OI601) decreased by 207.41% to - 83 yuan [1] Meals - **Soybean Meal**: Spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 3,030 yuan; futures price (M2601) increased by 0.72% to 3,088 yuan; basis (M2601) decreased by 61.11% to - 58 yuan; Brazilian October shipment crush margin increased by 47.2% to 53 yuan; warehouse receipts increased by 6.4% to 27,565 [3] - **Rapeseed Meal**: Spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 2,630 yuan; futures price (RM2601) increased by 1.34% to 2,567 yuan; basis (RM2601) decreased by 35.05% to 63 yuan; Canadian November shipment crush margin increased by 2.68% to 881 yuan; warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 10,383 [3] Hogs - **Futures**: The price of Live Hog 2511 increased by 0.04% to 13,320 yuan; Live Hog 2601 decreased by 0.07% to 13,730 yuan; the 11 - 1 spread increased by 3.53% to - 410 yuan; the main contract's open interest increased by 0.31% to 75,953; warehouse receipts remained at 428 [6] - **Spot**: Prices in Henan decreased by 0.37% to 13,500 yuan; in Shandong remained at 13,500 yuan; in Sichuan remained at 13,350 yuan; in Liaoning remained at 13,100 yuan; in Guangdong remained at 14,290 yuan; in Hunan increased by 0.76% to 13,210 yuan; in Hebei decreased by 0.74% to 13,400 yuan [6] Corn - **Corn**: The price of Corn 2511 increased by 0.23% to 2,202 yuan; the basis decreased by 4.42% to 108 yuan; the 11 - 3 spread increased by 45.45% to 16 yuan; the south - north trade profit increased by 11.36% to 49 yuan; import profit increased by 0.20% to 504 yuan; the number of trucks at Shandong deep - processing plants in the morning increased by 76.37% to 806; open interest increased by 0.84% to 1,581,422; warehouse receipts decreased by 0.16% to 51,874 [8] - **Corn Starch**: The price of Corn Starch 2511 decreased by 0.44% to 2,477 yuan; the basis increased by 15.28% to 83 yuan; the 11 - 3 spread decreased by 42.11% to - 27 yuan; the starch - corn spread decreased by 5.50% to 275 yuan; Shandong's processing profit increased by 48.78% to - 42 yuan; open interest increased by 4.83% to 295,207; warehouse receipts increased by 5.78% to 9,500 [8] Cotton - **Futures**: The price of Cotton 2605 decreased by 0.18% to 13,795 yuan; Cotton 2601 decreased by 0.14% to 13,835 yuan; the 5 - 1 spread decreased by 14.29% to - 40 yuan; the main contract's open interest decreased by 0.47% to 502,476; warehouse receipts decreased by 3.06% to 5,159 [11] - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B decreased by 0.16% to 12,186 yuan; the CC Index 3128B decreased by 0.24% to 15,249 yuan; the FC Index M 1% increased by 0.26% to 13,353 yuan [11] Eggs - The price of the Egg 11 contract increased by 0.79% to 3,044 yuan; the Egg 10 contract increased by 0.79% to 3,043 yuan; the spot price in the production area increased by 0.94% to 3.47 yuan per catty; the basis increased by 1.78% to 426 yuan; the 11 - 10 spread remained unchanged at 1 [13] Sugar - **Futures**: The price of Sugar 2601 increased by 0.38%; Sugar 2605 increased by 0.31% to 5,524 yuan; the ICE raw sugar main contract decreased by 0.57% to 15.80 cents per pound; the 1 - 5 spread increased by 14.29% to 32 yuan; the main contract's open interest increased by 0.62% to 391,605; warehouse receipts decreased by 0.28% to 11,739 [17] - **Spot**: The price in Nanning increased by 0.17% to 5,890 yuan; in Kunming increased by 0.26% to 5,850 yuan; the Nanning basis decreased by 1.88% to 366 yuan; the Kunming basis decreased by 0.61% to 326 yuan [17]

甲醇产业日报 2025-09-11 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价甲醇(日,元/吨) | 2387 | -20 甲醇1-5价差(日,元/吨) | -3 | -1 | | | 主力合约持仓量:甲醇(日,手) | 775400 | 19434 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:甲醇(日,手) | -118150 | -9662 | | | 仓单数量:甲醇(日,张) | 14979 | 460 | | | | 现货市场 | 江苏太仓(日,元/吨) | 2275 | -10 内蒙古(日,元/吨) | 2122.5 | -5 | | | 华东-西北价差(日,元/吨) | 152.5 | -5 郑醇主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | -112 | 10 | | | 甲醇:CFR中国主港(日,美元/吨) | 264 | 2 CFR东南亚(日,美元/吨) | 326 | 3 | | | FOB鹿特丹(日,欧元/吨) | 295 | -2 中国主港-东南亚价差(日,美元/吨) | ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年9月11日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货小幅上涨，现货市场商谈氛围一般，现货基差偏稳，少量聚酯工厂递盘。9月在01贴水60~65附近成交， 个别略低，价格商谈区间在4600~4640附近。10月货在01贴水45有成交。今日主流现货基差在01-63。中性 2、基差：现货4625，01合约基差-73，盘面升水 中性 3、库存：PTA工厂库存3.9天，环比增加0.09天 偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向上，收盘价收于20日均线之下 偏多 5、主力持仓：净空 空减 偏空 6、预期：近期PTA检修重启并行，现货市场流通性尚可，现货基差走弱且区域基差有 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply is short - term tight, demand is stable month - on - month. In a weak supply - demand environment, refinery inventories are rising steadily while social inventories are steadily decreasing. Asphalt lacks obvious drivers, and its spot price is expected to be weak. The crack spread is dominated by oil price fluctuations in the short term and bearish in the medium term. The operating range of the BU2511 contract is expected to be between 3350 and 3500 [8] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Part 1: Related Data - **Futures Prices and Positions**: On September 10, 2025, prices of BU2511 (main contract), BU2512, BU2601, SC2510, and Brent first - line all increased, with increases of 0.88%, 0.77%, 0.87%, 0.70%, and 0.96% respectively. The main contract's position increased by 1.18%, trading volume increased by 33.77%, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 0.46% [2] - **Basis and Monthly Spreads**: BU12 - 01 decreased by 11.54%, BU11 - 12 increased by 8.51%. The basis between Shandong, East China, and South China and the main contract decreased by 5.57%, 14.69%, and 22.93% respectively [2] - **Industrial Chain Spot Prices**: Shandong's market price increased by 0.28%, South China's decreased by 0.28%, and East China's remained unchanged. Prices of Shandong gasoline, diesel, and petroleum coke increased, the dilution asphalt discount remained unchanged, and the exchange - rate mid - price increased by 0.08% [2] - **Spread Profits**: Asphalt refinery profit decreased by 176.63%, refined - oil comprehensive profit decreased by 6.70%, BU - SC crack decreased by 0.34%, gasoline spot - Brent decreased by 3.00%, and diesel spot - Brent decreased by 4.27% [2] Part 2: Market Analysis - **Market Overview**: On September 10, the domestic asphalt market average price was 3789 yuan/ton, up 0.03% from the previous day. In North China, resources were tight and trader prices rose slightly; in Shandong, demand was stable and some refinery prices increased slightly; in East China, demand was tepid and prices were stable; in South China, demand was rising and some refinery prices increased [5][6] - **Price Forecast by Region**: In Shandong, with Dongming Petrochemical resuming production, the supply - demand pattern will be loose and prices may be stable. In the Yangtze River Delta, with increased planned production of some main refineries, prices are restricted. In South China, with some refinery maintenance plans, prices may trend upward in the short term [5][6] Part 3: Related Attachments - The report provides six figures including BU main - contract closing price, position, and market prices in different regions over the years, with data sources from Galaxy Futures and Wind or Steel Union [10]

同步走弱，且受自身需求不佳影响，总体走势弱于玉米。 研究员: 许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0017638 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 -17 玉米淀粉期货收盘价(活跃合约):(日,元/ | 最新 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):(日,元/吨) | 2197 | 2488 | -22 | | | 吨) 玉米月间价差(1-5):(日,元/吨) -4 玉米淀粉月间价差(11-1):(日,元/吨) | -70 | -14 | 3 | | 期货市场 | 期货持仓量(活跃合 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - On September 10, the JM2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1117.0, down 1.93%. The spot price of Tangshan Mongolian No. 5 coking coal was reported at 1366, equivalent to 1146 on the futures market. The coking coal market is expected to move in a range, and investors should pay attention to risk control [2]. - On September 10, the J2601 contract of coke closed at 1603.0, down 0.77%. The first - round price cut of coke on the spot market has been implemented. The coke market is expected to move in a range, and investors should pay attention to risk control [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the JM main contract was 1117.00 yuan/ton, down 6.50 yuan; the closing price of the J main contract was 1603.00 yuan/ton, up 5.50 yuan [2]. - The trading volume of the JM futures contract was 885248.00 lots, down 17361.00 lots; the trading volume of the J futures contract was 52202.00 lots, down 743.00 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 contracts for coking coal was - 117717.00 lots, up 8713.00 lots; the net position of the top 20 contracts for coke was - 4245.00 lots, down 164.00 lots [2]. - The spread between the JM5 - 1 contracts was 78.00 yuan/ton, down 3.50 yuan; the spread between the J5 - 1 contracts was 129.50 yuan/ton, up 1.50 yuan [2]. - The number of coking coal warehouse receipts was 1300.00, down 200.00; the number of coke warehouse receipts was 1430.00, up 120.00 [2]. Spot Market - The price of Ganqimao Mongolian No. 5 raw coal was 940.00 yuan/ton, up 8.00 yuan; the price of Tangshan Grade I metallurgical coke was 1720.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Russian prime coking coal forward spot (CFR) was 149.00 US dollars/wet ton, down 0.50 US dollars; the price of Rizhao Port quasi - Grade I metallurgical coke was 1520.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Australian prime coking coal imported at Jingtang Port was 1560.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Grade I metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1620.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of prime coking coal produced in Shanxi at Jingtang Port was 1540.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of quasi - Grade I metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1520.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of medium - sulfur prime coking coal in Lingshi, Jinzhong, Shanxi was 1270.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the J main contract was 117.00 yuan/ton, down 5.50 yuan [2]. - The ex - factory price of coking coal produced in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 1100.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the JM main contract was 153.00 yuan/ton, up 6.50 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The daily output of clean coal from 314 independent coal washing plants was 25.60 million tons, up 0.40 million tons; the weekly inventory of clean coal from 314 independent coal washing plants was 280.60 million tons, down 5.60 million tons [2]. - The weekly capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants was 0.35%, down 0.00%; the monthly raw coal output was 38098.70 million tons, down 4008.70 million tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of coal and lignite was 4273.70 million tons, up 712.70 million tons; the daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines was 188.60 million tons, down 2.60 million tons [2]. - The weekly inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports was 464.77 million tons, up 9.36 million tons; the weekly inventory of coke at 18 ports was 260.76 million tons, down 7.90 million tons [2]. National Industrial Situation - The weekly inventory of coking coal in 247 steel mills was 795.76 million tons, down 16.09 million tons; the weekly inventory of coke in 247 sample steel mills across the country was 623.71 million tons, up 13.64 million tons [2]. - The available days of coking coal in the full - sample of independent coking enterprises was 13.09 days, down 0.16 days; the available days of coke in 247 sample steel mills was 11.71 days, up 0.93 days [2]. - The monthly import volume of coking coal was 962.30 million tons, up 53.11 million tons; the monthly export volume of coke and semi - coke was 89.00 million tons, up 38.00 million tons [2]. - The monthly output of coking coal was 4089.38 million tons, up 25.00 million tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 73.14%, down 0.22% [2]. - The weekly profit per ton of coke in independent coking plants was 64.00 yuan/ton, up 9.00 yuan; the monthly output of coke was 4185.50 million tons, up 15.20 million tons [2]. National Downstream Situation - The weekly blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 80.38%, down 2.80%; the weekly blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 85.77%, down 4.23% [2]. - The monthly output of crude steel was 7965.82 million tons, down 352.58 million tons [2]. Industry News - The US government released preliminary benchmark revision data. In the year up to March this year, the number of non - farm payrolls in the US was revised down by 911,000, equivalent to an average monthly decrease of nearly 76,000 [2]. - The State Council Information Office held a press conference on the high - quality completion of the 14th Five - Year Plan. During the 14th Five - Year Plan period, the incremental value of China's manufacturing industry is expected to reach 8 trillion yuan, accounting for nearly 30% of the global total, and the overall scale has remained the world's largest for 15 consecutive years [2]. - A JPMorgan trader said that "the day of the Fed's rate cut in September" would be the time when "the good news is exhausted". If the Fed cuts interest rates as expected at the meeting on September 17, this market - digested positive news may instead become a catalyst for investors to take profits and withdraw temporarily [2]. - Wang Qiuping, the spokesperson of the State Administration for Market Regulation, said that the administration has promptly interviewed major food - delivery platforms. The relevant platforms quickly responded, collectively voiced their commitment to abide by laws and regulations,杜绝 unfair competition, resist vicious subsidies, and promote the standardized and orderly development of the industry [2].