续至今，也在价格上得到充分体现。当前市场处于筑底阶段，市场虽无明显利多因素，但利空因素逐步兑 数据来源第三方(同花顺、wind)，观点仅供参考，市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 白糖产业日报 2026-02-03 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:白糖(日,元/吨) | 5167 | -40 主力合约持仓量:白糖(日,手) | 451499 | 10416 10169 | | | 仓单数量:白糖(日,张) | 14216 | 147 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:白糖(日,手) | -62916 | | | | 有效仓单预报:白糖:小计(日,张) 进口加工估算价(配额内):巴西糖(日,元/ | 489 | 292 | | | | | | 3943 | -90 进口加工估算价(配额内):泰国糖(日,元/ | 3988 | -90 | | | 吨) 进口巴糖估算价(配额外,50%关税)(日,元 | | 吨) | | | | 现货市场 | | 4990 | -118 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - The inventory of apples for the Spring Festival preparation has not changed significantly. Merchants mainly continue to package their own supplies. In some low - price producing areas, the trading of fruit farmers' goods has slightly improved. Merchants mainly package gift boxes, and fruit farmers are actively selling their goods, with prices determined by quality. The trading of high - price and high - quality apples in Shaanxi, such as Luochuan apples, remains sluggish, and the market situation has not changed much. The Spring Festival preparation is gradually entering the incremental stage. In the producing areas, the shipping speed has significantly accelerated, with the Gansu producing area performing better than others. Merchants still mainly ship their own inventory. As of January 28, 2026, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas of the country was 6.5405 million tons, a decrease of 287,300 tons from the previous week. The inventory removal speed has accelerated compared to the previous week and is slightly higher than the same period last year. The storage capacity ratio in Shandong is 49.01%, a decrease of 1.29% from the previous week, and in Shaanxi, it is 50.85%, a decrease of 1.91% from the previous week. In the Shandong producing area, the overall packaging and shipping have increased, and some pre - packed gift boxes have been shipped to the market, with the shipment accelerating, but the transaction of fruit farmers' goods is still average. In Shaanxi, the inventory removal has slightly accelerated, and the transactions in Weinan and Xianyang have improved compared to before, with more merchants packing and shipping, and the fruit farmers' goods are mainly sold in two - polar sources. In the sales areas, there is a large backlog of goods in the transfer warehouses and on the ground vehicles, and the sales speed of gift - boxed goods is average. In terms of price, the price of general - quality fruit farmers' goods is stable with a weak trend, while the price of high - quality goods is stable [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main apple futures contract is 9,485 yuan/ton, and the position of the main contract is 101,361 hands, a decrease of 8,125 hands compared to the previous period. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 1,422 hands, and the previous value was 909 hands [2] Spot Market - The spot price of apples in Gansu Jingning (paper - bagged, above 75) is 5.25 yuan/jin, in Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bagged, above 75) is 2.4 yuan/jin, in Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bagged, above 70 semi - commercial) is 4.2 yuan/jin, and in Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bagged, above 80, first - grade and second - grade fruit farmers' goods) is 3.7 yuan/jin [2] Upstream Situation - The annual apple production in the country is 51.2851 million tons, and the weekly wholesale price of apples is 9.47 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.05 yuan/kg compared to the previous period [2] Industry Situation - The average weekly wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.33 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.04 yuan/kg compared to the previous period. The total cold - storage inventory of apples in the country is 6.5405 million tons, a decrease of 287,300 tons compared to the previous week. The storage capacity ratio of apples in Shandong is 49.01%, a decrease of 1.29% compared to the previous week, and in Shaanxi is 50.85%, a decrease of 1.91% compared to the previous week. The monthly export volume of apples is 160,000 tons, an increase of 40,000 tons compared to the previous period. The monthly export amount of apples increased by 30.7% year - on - year, and the monthly import amount of fresh and dried fruits and nuts is 17.75355 million US dollars, an increase of 6.57409 million US dollars compared to the previous period. The weekly profit of storage merchants for first - and second - grade paper - bagged apples of 80 is 0 yuan/jin [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly wholesale price of pears is 6.52 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.02 yuan/kg compared to the previous period; the weekly wholesale price of bananas is 6.97 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.07 yuan/kg compared to the previous period; the weekly wholesale price of watermelons is 5.9 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.05 yuan/kg compared to the previous period. The average daily number of trucks arriving in the morning at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market is 17.4, an increase of 6.2 compared to the previous period; at the Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale market is 7.8; at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market is 23.4, an increase of 11.6 compared to the previous period [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 26.29%, an increase of 0.84% compared to the previous period; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for apples is 26.29%, an increase of 0.84% compared to the previous period [2] Suggested Attention Points - Pay attention to the cold - storage inventory data on Thursday [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The coking coal market is in a weak balance with reduced supply and weak demand as winter storage nears its end, and is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to steel - coking profits and the shutdown situation in the industrial chain [2] - The coke market has supply contraction and iron - water demand falling short of expectations. With pre - holiday winter storage approaching the end and downstream rigid demand procurement, it is also expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to steel - coking profits and the shutdown situation in the industrial chain [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - JM main contract closing price increased by 26 yuan/ton to 1167.50 yuan/ton, and J main contract closing price increased by 34.50 yuan/ton to 1715.00 yuan/ton [2] - JM futures contract positions increased by 5864 hands to 577813 hands, while J futures contract positions decreased by 156 hands to 38269 hands [2] - The net positions of the top 20 JM contracts decreased by 3441 hands to - 80491 hands, and the net positions of the top 20 J contracts decreased by 211 hands to - 1165 hands [2] - JM 9 - 5 month contract spread decreased by 6.50 yuan/ton to 78.00 yuan/ton, and J 9 - 5 month contract spread increased by 3.00 yuan/ton to 69.00 yuan/ton [2] - The number of coking coal warehouse receipts remained at 0, and the number of coke warehouse receipts remained at 1480 [2] Spot Market - The price of Ganqimao Du Meng 5 raw coal increased by 3 yuan/ton to 1027 yuan/ton, and the price of Tangshan Grade 1 metallurgical coke remained at 1720 yuan/ton [2] - The price of Russian main coking coal forward spot remained at 164 dollars/wet ton, and the price of Rizhao Port quasi - Grade 1 metallurgical coke remained at 1520 yuan/ton [2] - The price of imported main coking coal from Australia at Jingtang Port increased by 10 yuan/ton to 1620 yuan/ton, and the price of Grade 1 metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port remained at 1620 yuan/ton [2] - The price of Shanxi - produced main coking coal at Jingtang Port remained at 1780 yuan/ton, and the price of quasi - Grade 1 metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port remained at 1520 yuan/ton [2] - The price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Lingshi, Jinzhong, Shanxi remained at 1400 yuan/ton, and the J main contract basis decreased by 34.50 yuan/ton to 5 yuan/ton [2] - The ex - factory price of coking coal produced in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia remained at 1330 yuan/ton, and the JM main contract basis decreased by 26 yuan/ton to 177.50 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The daily output of clean coal from 314 independent coal washing plants decreased by 0.80 tons to 26.80 tons, and the weekly inventory of clean coal from 314 independent coal washing plants decreased by 11.60 tons to 311.60 tons [2] - The weekly capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants decreased by 0.01% to 0.37%, and the monthly raw coal output increased by 1024.20 tons to 43703.50 tons [2] - The monthly import volume of coal and lignite increased by 1455 tons to 5860 tons, and the daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines decreased by 1.60 tons to 197.80 tons [2] - The weekly inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports decreased by 15 tons to 547.99 tons, and the weekly inventory of coking coal in the full - sample of independent coking enterprises increased by 57.08 tons to 1234.79 tons [2] - The weekly inventory of coke at 18 ports decreased by 6.19 tons to 263.07 tons, and the weekly inventory of coke in the full - sample of independent coking enterprises increased by 2.94 tons to 84.39 tons [2] - The weekly inventory of coking coal in 247 steel mills nationwide increased by 11.12 tons to 814.36 tons, and the weekly inventory of coke in 247 sample steel mills increased by 16.55 tons to 678.19 tons [2] Industry Situation - The available days of coking coal in the full - sample of independent coking enterprises increased by 0.15 days to 13.03 days, and the available days of coke in 247 sample steel mills increased by 0.19 days to 12.54 days [2] - The monthly import volume of coking coal increased by 303.83 tons to 1376.98 tons, and the monthly export volume of coke and semi - coke increased by 28 tons to 100 tons [2] - The monthly total supply of coking coal increased by 238.93 tons to 5478.50 tons, and the weekly capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises decreased by 0.14% to 72.41% [2] - The weekly profit per ton of coke in independent coking plants increased by 11 yuan/ton to - 55 yuan/ton, and the monthly coke output increased by 104 tons to 4274.30 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills nationwide increased by 0.32% to 79.00%, and the weekly blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.04% to 85.47% [2] - The monthly crude steel output decreased by 169.36 tons to 6817.74 tons [2] Industry News - Recently, 10 steel mills announced Spring Festival maintenance plans. For example, Chengshi Iron and Steel of Dusteel Group plans to shut down for maintenance from February 1st to 28th, 2026, reducing the output of construction steel by about 17 tons [2] - A survey of nearly 50 steel trading enterprises in 13 leading markets in Shandong showed that the overall winter storage volume of the surveyed enterprises this year decreased by 38.35% compared with last year [2]

2026年02月03日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：跟随油价大幅回调，区间震荡市 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：区间震荡市 | 2 | | MEG：区间操作 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡偏弱20260203 | 4 | | 合成橡胶:高位回落 | 6 | | LLDPE：进口利润缩窄递盘有限，油价支撑转弱 | 8 | | PP：成本扰动较大，利润或趋修复 | 9 | | 烧碱：成本支撑，未来预期较强 | 10 | | 纸浆：宽幅震荡20260203 | 12 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 14 | | 甲醇：震荡有支撑 | 15 | | 尿素：短期横盘整理 | 17 | | 苯乙烯：偏强震荡 | 19 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 20 | | LPG：短期地缘扰动偏强，基本面驱动向下 | 21 | | 丙烯：上行驱动转弱，关注成本端扰动 | 21 | | PVC：情绪偏强，基本面未有明显改善 | 24 | | 燃料油：大幅回撤，高波动态势延续 | 25 | | 低硫燃料油：跟跌走势为主，外盘现货高低硫价差继续收缩 | 25 | | 集运指数（欧线 ...

商 品 研 究 2026 年 02 月 03 日 纸浆：宽幅震荡 20260203 | | | 表 1：基本面数据 纸浆趋势强度：0 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表示最看 空，2 表示最看多。 【行业新闻】 昨日纸浆期货价格震荡下行，而现货市场则表现平淡，价格波动有限，市场缺乏明确方向。当前市场需求 端维持疲软的状态，下游纸厂采购意愿比较低，纸浆交投基本发生在贸易商群体之间，终端需求不足。整体来 看，供需基本面未出现改善迹象，高库存与弱需求的矛盾压制市场走势，建议关注主要港口库存的变动以及下 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 | 项目 | | 项目名称 | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 纸浆主力 | 日盘收盘价(元/吨) | 5.266 | 5, 300 | -34 | | | | 夜盘收盘价(元/吨) | 5. 278 | 5, 334 | -56 | | | | 成交量(手) | 314. 614 | 476 ...

免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,834.00 | -38.00↓ SF主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,624.00 | -36.00↓ | | | SM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 536,384.00 | +22486.00↑ SF期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 324,259.00 | +37136.00↑ | | 期货市场 | 锰硅前20名净持仓（日，手） | -42,098.00 | +1204.00↑ 硅铁前20名净持仓（日，手） | -19,863.00 | +4897.00↑ | | | SM5-3月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 34.00 | +4.00↑ SF4-3月合约价差（日，元/吨） | -8.00 | +2.00↑ | | | SM 仓单（日，张） | 37,692.00 | -221.00↓ SF 仓单（日，张） | 8,198.00 | -362.00↓ | | | 内蒙古锰硅 FeMn68Si ...

期货研究报告 2026年02月02日 周报 钢材：市场驱动不足，钢价震荡运行 展望：综合来看，螺纹钢市场短期将处于多空博弈交织之中。相对偏低水平库存和宏观暖意限制价格大 幅下跌的空间，而疲软的实际需求和持续的累库过程也抑制了上涨动能，预计价格将以小幅盘整为主，整体 走势偏稳，趋势性行情需待节后需求表现。 风险提示：宏观政策、成材需求、钢材出口、钢厂利润、炉料成本支撑等。 | 钢材 | 单位 | 最新一周 | 上一期 | 周度环比变化量 | 周度环比变化率 | 频率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 钢厂日均铁水产量 | 万吨 | 227.98 | 228.1 | -0.12 | -0.05% | 周度 | | 螺纹钢厂库存 | 万吨 | 149.13 | 148.98 | 0.15 | 0.10% | 周度 | | 螺纹社会库存 | 万吨 | 326.4 | 303.12 | 23.28 | 7.68% | 周度 | | 热卷钢厂库存 | 万吨 | 77.25 | 76.64 | 0.61 | 0.80% | 周度 | | 热卷社会库存 | 万吨 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The futures market of various energy - chemical products shows diverse trends, including high - level oscillations, declines, and range - bound operations. For example, p - xylene is in a high - level oscillating market with a weakening monthly spread, while rubber is in a wide - range weakening trend [2][12]. - The fundamentals of different products vary. Some are affected by factors such as supply and demand changes, cost support, and geopolitical risks. For instance, the supply of PTA is in a cumulative pattern, and the demand for rubber may face a short - term callback risk due to high prices [12][17]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: In a high - level oscillating market with a weakening monthly spread. The fundamentals are gradually weakening, with an increase in domestic and overseas device starts, and it is entering a cumulative inventory pattern. PXN processing fees have rebounded, and PTA processing fees above 450 are recommended to be shorted on rallies [12]. - **PTA**: In an interval oscillating market with a bearish monthly spread. The demand for polyester is expected to decline marginally, and it is in a cumulative inventory pattern. Attention should be paid to the support level of 5100 - 5200 yuan/ton [13]. - **MEG**: In a unilateral interval oscillating market. The supply device start - up rate has increased, and imports remain high. The demand for polyester is expected to decline in the short term, and it is difficult to change the cumulative inventory pattern [13]. 3.2 Rubber - In a wide - range weakening trend. The import volume in January is expected to decrease compared with December, but it is still at a high level. The global supply is expected to decrease seasonally, and the cost side supports the rubber price. However, downstream demand is resistant to high - priced raw materials, and there is a risk of a short - term pullback [15][17]. 3.3 Synthetic Rubber - In a high - level decline pattern. Macro - level factors such as geopolitical risks and Federal Reserve nominations affect the market sentiment. Some valuation indicators are approaching the boundary, and the negative feedback expectation from downstream enterprises has increased [20]. 3.4 LLDPE - The import profit has narrowed, and the offer is limited, but it is supported by oil prices. The raw material price of crude oil has strengthened, and the ethylene monomer link has continued to weaken. The mid - stream trading is active, but the downstream has not followed up to replenish inventory. Attention should be paid to the supply - demand pressure caused by high inventory and weakening demand before the Spring Festival [21][22]. 3.5 PP - Supported by the rising oil price cost. The cost side of crude oil and propane is strong, and the supply has no new production before the 2605 contract. The demand is mainly driven by new orders for downstream rigid demand, and the overall fundamental support is limited. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices [24][25]. 3.6 Caustic Soda - Supported by cost, with strong future expectations. The previous logic of shorting caustic soda profits may be challenged in the later stage. Although the spot is weak in the short term, the market has strong expectations for the future. Attention should be paid to the registration of warehouse receipts [28]. 3.7 Pulp - In a wide - range oscillating trend. The supply - demand fundamentals remain at a weak rigid - demand level, with continuous pressure on port inventory on the supply side and no improvement in demand on the demand side. The market lacks upward driving force [33][34]. 3.8 Glass - The original sheet price is stable. The price of float glass in most regions remains stable, with only partial price increases in the central China region. The market demand is limited, and attention should be paid to the winter storage policy of manufacturers in high - inventory regions [37][38]. 3.9 Methanol - Oscillating with support. The macro - level sentiment is weak, but the international energy price provides support. The supply - demand pattern is weak in the short term, and the high - level operation of port inventory suppresses the upside space. Attention should be paid to the cost support below [43]. 3.10 Urea - Oscillating and falling. The macro - level sentiment is weak, and the small - scale state reserve release suppresses speculative signals. The 05 contract has a fundamental pressure level of around 1830 yuan/ton and a support level of around 1730 - 1740 yuan/ton [46][47]. 3.11 Styrene - In a strong - oscillating trend. The downstream profit is continuously squeezed, and it is in a high - production and high - inventory pattern. The inventory is in a seasonal cumulative pattern, and the upward driving force is limited. Attention should be paid to the restart of parking devices [48][49]. 3.12 Soda Ash - The spot market has little change. The supply of soda ash enterprises is at a high level, and the downstream demand is average, with purchases on demand. The short - term market lacks substantial support, and the price may oscillate weakly and stably [54]. 3.13 PVC - The sentiment is strong, but the fundamentals have not improved significantly. It is supported by factors such as export rush, the Mercury - Free Convention, and future production reduction expectations in the short term. However, it still faces a pattern of high production and high inventory, and attention should be paid to the pressure on long - position holders to take delivery [58][59]. 3.14 Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: In a strong - oscillating trend with a continuation of high - volatility. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: In a narrow - range adjustment, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market continues to shrink [62]. 3.15 Container Freight Index (European Line) - In an oscillating market. The freight rates of European and US - West routes show a downward trend, and attention should be paid to factors such as shipping capacity and geopolitical risks [64]. 3.16 Short Fiber and Bottle Chip - **Short Fiber**: In a high - level oscillation with increased volatility. The futures are weak, and the spot price of the factory rises slightly. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber are polarized [76]. - **Bottle Chip**: In a high - level oscillation with increased volatility. The upstream raw material futures oscillate and fall, and the factory price is mostly stable. The market trading atmosphere is acceptable [76][77]. 3.17 Offset Printing Paper - Hold short positions and conduct a 3 - 4 reverse spread. The prices in the Shandong and Guangdong markets are stable, the cost is slightly reduced, and the profit is slightly improved. The market trading atmosphere is weak [79][80][82]. 3.18 Pure Benzene - In a strong - oscillating trend. The port inventory is in a cumulative pattern, and the spot price has increased. Attention should be paid to the inventory changes and the price difference between pure benzene and other products [84][85].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term investment rating for the glass industry is "short - term shock" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply - demand contradiction in the glass market has not been substantially improved. The short - term price may fluctuate, but there is a possibility of weakening in the later stage. Attention should be paid to macro - policy changes and production line cold - repair situations [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - In the futures market, the glass main contract opened high and went low, showing a short - term shock signal. The trading volume increased by 361,000 lots and the open interest increased by 43,145 lots compared with the previous day. The closing price was 1056 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton or 1.95% from the previous settlement price [1] - In the spot market, the situation varied by region. North China was stable, East China had average trading, Central China had some price increases in Hubei, and South China's market center shifted down [1] - The basis in North China was - 36 yuan/ton with a spot price of 1020 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 29, the weekly total output of float glass was 1.057 million tons, flat month - on - month and - 3.375% year - on - year. The industry average operating rate was 71.86%, up 0.24% month - on - month, and the capacity utilization rate was 75.7%, flat month - on - month. One production line was restarted but had not yet produced glass [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 52.564 million heavy boxes, down 652,000 heavy boxes or 1.22% month - on - month and up 21.24% year - on - year. The inventory days were 22.8 days, 0.3 days less than the previous period [2] - **Import and Export**: In December 2025, domestic float glass exports were 87,000 tons, an increase of 2200 tons or 2.59% from the previous month. The net exports were 72,400 tons, a 4.51% increase month - on - month. The cumulative export volume from January to December was 1.0292 million tons, a 93.63% increase year - on - year [2] - **Profit**: The weekly average profit of natural - gas float glass was - 155.12 yuan/ton, up 3.57 yuan/ton week - on - week. The weekly average profit of coal - gas float glass was - 68.5 yuan/ton, down 3.39 yuan/ton week - on - week. The weekly average profit of petroleum - coke float glass was 1.07 yuan/ton, up 2.85 yuan/ton week - on - week [3] Main Logic Summary - The long - term losses of glass production lines have accelerated the capacity clearance of some enterprises, and there are still plans to cold - repair some production lines before the Spring Festival, so the supply side is expected to shrink further. However, real - estate demand has not improved, and downstream demand is expected to weaken further after February. The short - term price may fluctuate [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term investment rating for the soda ash industry is "volatile" [1] Core Viewpoints - Currently, the soda ash capacity utilization rate remains high, and with the gradual release of new production capacity, the overall output is increasing. Recently, a glass production line has resumed production, leading to a slight recovery in the rigid demand for soda ash. Affected by the overall market today, the price has declined, but there is support from anti - involution and rising energy costs. However, the continuously increasing high inventory pressure will limit the price rebound space. In the short term, the futures price may maintain a volatile trend with a limited range. In February, as downstream enterprises gradually shut down for the holiday, the pre - holiday demand may weaken further, and the price may undergo a weak adjustment [4] Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - **Futures market**: The main soda ash contract opened and closed lower, showing weakness during the day. The 120 - minute Bollinger Bands tightened, indicating a short - term volatile signal. The intraday pressure is near the upper Bollinger Band, and the support is near the middle Bollinger Band. The trading volume increased by 167,000 lots compared to yesterday, and the open interest decreased by 14,274 lots. The intraday high was 1230, the low was 1197, and the closing price was 1204, down 6 yuan/ton or 0.5% from the previous settlement price [1] - **Spot market**: The spot market remained weakly stable. Enterprise equipment was operating stably, with supply remaining at a high level. Some enterprises had maintenance plans in early February. Downstream procurement sentiment was poor, and they mainly replenished inventory at low prices [1] - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1250, and the basis was 46 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 29, the domestic soda ash production was 783,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11,400 tons or 1.47%. Among them, the light soda ash production was 362,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,200 tons; the heavy soda ash production was 421,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8,200 tons. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 84.19%, down 2.23% from last week. The ammonia - soda process capacity utilization rate was 88.99%, a month - on - month increase of 1.30%; the co - production process capacity utilization rate was 74.65%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.34%. The overall capacity utilization rate of 16 enterprises with an annual production capacity of over one million tons was 88.32%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.56% [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1,544,200 tons, an increase of 3,200 tons or 0.21% compared to Monday. Among them, the light soda ash inventory was 828,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10,200 tons; the heavy soda ash inventory was 716,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13,400 tons. It increased by 23,000 tons or 1.52% compared to last Thursday. The inventory at the same time last year was 1,845,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 300,900 tons or 16.31% [2] - **Demand**: The shipment volume of soda ash enterprises was 760,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.94%. The overall shipment rate of soda ash was 97.06%, a month - on - month decrease of 9.92%. The downstream demand for soda ash was average, and the procurement enthusiasm was poor. They mainly consumed inventory and made low - price rigid - demand purchases [2][3] - **Profit**: According to Longzhong Information statistics, the theoretical profit (per two tons) of the co - production method was - 26.5 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 13.5 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 88.35 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 7.95 yuan/ton. During the week, the price of raw material rock salt was stable, and the price of thermal coal fluctuated downward, resulting in a slight decline in costs [3] Main Logic Summary - The soda ash capacity utilization rate remains high, and the overall output is increasing with new capacity. The rigid demand for soda ash has slightly recovered due to the resumption of a glass production line. Affected by the overall market, the price has dropped today, but there is support. The high inventory pressure limits the price rebound. In the short term, the price may fluctuate, and in February, it may weaken as downstream demand declines [4]