成文日期：20251218 研究品种:苹果 报告周期: 日报 研究员：漆建华（从业资格号：F03099134;投资咨询从业证书号：Z0017731) 型期货目报 1 期货市场 1.1 合约行情 当日（20251218），期货品种苹果 AP2605 合约震荡下行，当 日收至 9068 点，较昨日下跌 0.95%,全日成交 200113 手，持仓 162157 手，较上一交易日增加 19889 手。 数据来源:国金期货博易大师 1.2 品种价格 当日苹果期货各合约全部下跌,成交量 214210 手,品种持仓 量 187560 手，较上一交易日增加 19146 手。 图:苹果期货日行情表 研究咨询：028 6130 3163 邮箱：institute@gjqh.com.cn 投诉热线：4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 图：苹果 AP2605 分时图 | 合约代 | 昨结算 | 今开盘 | 最高价 | 警低价 | 今收营 | 令结算 | 涨跌1 | 涨跌2 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 増減量 | 成交额(万元) | 交割合 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Near - month imports of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal are restricted, and oil mills are shut down, but with Australian rapeseed arriving and potential Canadian imports, supply is expected to increase. Also, the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens demand. The rapeseed meal price has maintained a narrow - range fluctuation recently. Attention should be paid to China's soybean purchases from the US [2]. - The rapeseed oil market has a structurally tight supply currently, with oil mills shut down and inventory decreasing, which supports the price. However, with Australian rapeseed arriving and potential improvement in China - Canada trade relations, future supply pressure will increase. The abundant supply and good substitution of soybean oil keep rapeseed oil demand at a basic level. Affected by the rise of palm oil, rapeseed oil has rebounded slightly, and the short - term downward trend may slow down [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil is 8864 yuan/ton (up 120), rapeseed meal is 2337 yuan/ton (up 14), ICE rapeseed is 594.5 CAD/ton (down 5.6), and domestic rapeseed is 5481 yuan/ton (up 33) [2]. - Month - to - month spreads: Rapeseed oil (5 - 9) is - 4 yuan/ton (down 2), rapeseed meal (5 - 9) is - 56 yuan/ton (up 3) [2]. - Main contract positions: Rapeseed oil is 200067 lots (down 8112), rapeseed meal is 604362 lots (up 5874) [2]. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: Rapeseed oil is - 28709 lots (down 1210), rapeseed meal is - 57003 lots (up 17456) [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantities: Rapeseed oil is 3876 sheets (down 50), rapeseed meal is 0 sheets [2]. Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9270 yuan/ton (down 230), rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5700 yuan/ton, rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2420 yuan/ton (up 40) [2]. - Average prices: Rapeseed oil is 9388.75 yuan/ton (down 230), the import cost of rapeseed is 7294.69 yuan/ton (down 83.67) [2]. - Basis: Rapeseed oil main - contract basis is 526 yuan/ton (down 29), rapeseed meal main - contract basis is 83 yuan/ton (up 26) [2]. - Substitute prices: Fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8310 yuan/ton (up 80), 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8270 yuan/ton (up 20), soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3100 yuan/ton [2]. - Price differences: Rapeseed - soybean oil is 1040 yuan/ton (down 80), rapeseed - palm oil is 1020 yuan/ton (down 80), soybean - rapeseed meal is 680 yuan/ton (down 40) [2]. Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production forecast is 92.27 million tons (up 1.31 million tons), and the annual forecast for rapeseed is 13446 thousand tons [2]. - Rapeseed imports are 0 tons (down 11.53 tons), and the import rapeseed crushing profit is 564 yuan/ton (up 100) [2]. - Rapeseed inventory in oil mills is 0.1 tons (up 0.1), and the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 0% [2]. - Imports of rapeseed oil and mustard oil are 14 tons (down 2), and rapeseed meal imports are 22.06 tons (up 6.29) [2]. Industry Situation - Coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 0.5 tons (down 0.15), coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 0 tons (down 0.02) [2]. - East China rapeseed oil inventory is 29.8 tons (down 2.4), East China rapeseed meal inventory is 18.61 tons (down 0.75) [2]. - Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory is 0.4 tons (down 0.15), South China rapeseed meal inventory is 24.8 tons (up 1.4) [2]. - Weekly rapeseed oil提货量 is 0.9 tons (up 0.9), weekly rapeseed meal提货量 is 0 tons (down 0.45) [2]. Downstream Situation - Feed production is 2977.9 tons (up 20.9), and the monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 6057 billion yuan (up 858) [2]. - Edible vegetable oil production is 427.6 tons (down 67.4) [2]. Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 16.65% (down 0.05), implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 16.65% (down 0.06) [2]. - 20 - day historical volatility for rapeseed meal is 11.82% (up 0.17), 60 - day historical volatility for rapeseed meal is 11.85% (up 0.09) [2]. - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 15.49% (up 1.54), implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 15.52% (up 1.55) [2]. - 20 - day historical volatility for rapeseed oil is 14.73% (up 1.67), 60 - day historical volatility for rapeseed oil is 14.73% (up 0.67) [2]. Industry News - On December 19, ICE rapeseed futures fell for the sixth consecutive trading day, with the most - actively traded March contract falling below 600 CAD/ton for the first time since March 2025 [2]. - The US soybean export season has abundant supply, and Brazil is expected to have a high - yield soybean harvest. The US is facing competition from cheaper Brazilian soybeans. China's soybean purchases have slowed down [2]. - Canada's AAFC raised the ending inventory forecast of Canadian rapeseed for the 2025/26 season by 450,000 tons to 2.95 million tons [2]. - Indonesia started the road test of B50 biodiesel two weeks ago, and the test is expected to last about six months. The mandatory use policy of B50 biodiesel is likely to be officially implemented in the second half of 2026 [2]. Key Points to Watch - The rapeseed operating rate and rapeseed oil and meal inventories in various regions reported by My Agricultural Network on Monday, and the development of China - Canada trade relations [2]

综合来看，铸造铝价格表现较好主要得益于成本端废铝的支撑，预计后续将维持高位震荡走势。 长江有色金属网www.ccmn.cn 电话：0592-5668838 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 ccmn铸造铝合金市场分析： 宏观层面，本周适逢圣诞周且三季度GDP数据即将公布，市场交投情绪趋于谨慎。不过，全球股市走 高、油价上扬，推动风险情绪显著升温，改善了金属需求前景，铸造铝期货市场氛围偏暖，期货价格震 荡走强。 基本面方面，年底铸造铝供需两端均出现一定程度的减量，市场陷入僵持。成本端，铝合金价格持续高 位运行，而冶炼端因面临亏损压力，开工率难以提升，供应端产能释放受限。需求端表现反复，叠加交 割压力，对价格形成压制。但终端有汽车消费市场订单提供支撑，现货市场交投氛围有所好转。铝合金 价格坚挺，激发持货商捂货惜售情绪，下游部分企业存在追涨补货举动，市场买卖交投活跃度略有提 升，今日整体成交表现良好。 上海期货价格走势：今日铸造铝合金主力月2602合约偏强震荡，截止当日15：00收盘，铸造铝主力合约 报21290元，涨140元，涨幅0.66%，全天成交量4594手增加259手；持仓量17184手减少32手。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings were provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily research and analysis on various energy and chemical futures, including trends, fundamentals, and trading strategies for each commodity [2]. - It also includes market news, industry data, and macro - news that may impact the futures market. Summaries by Commodity 1. PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Unilateral price trend is strong, squeezing downstream profits. It is recommended to focus on long PX and short PF/PR positions and maintain positive spread operations [8]. - **PTA**: Cost support is strong, unilateral trend is upward. It is recommended to hold long positions and positive spreads, and long PTA and short PF/PR [8]. - **MEG**: Unilateral is in a sideways market, and the medium - term trend is still weak [9]. 2. Rubber - The rubber market is in a wide - range sideways pattern. Domestic production areas are stopping production faster, overseas raw material prices are high, but tire production capacity utilization is weak and inventory is increasing [10][11][13]. 3. Synthetic Rubber - It is gradually entering a sideways pattern. The short - term fundamentals of butadiene are neutral, and the fundamentals of cis - butadiene rubber have weakened, with processing profits likely to be compressed [15][17]. 4. Asphalt - It is in a low - level sideways pattern, and geopolitical factors should be monitored. Refinery inventory has increased, and social inventory has decreased slightly [18][28]. 5. LLDPE - Full - density production has partially shifted, and valuation support is limited. The market is weak, with marginal demand weakening and high inventory pressure in the medium term [29][30]. 6. PP - PDH profits have improved month - on - month, and the trend is weakly sideways. Cost support is limited, supply - demand competition is intensifying, and demand is weak [31][32]. 7. Caustic Soda - There is still pressure in the later period. It is in a pattern of high production and high inventory, with weak demand and high supply pressure [34][36]. 8. Pulp - The trend is slightly strong. The import pulp market price is stable, the port inventory is decreasing, and the cost of living paper is strongly supported, with prices expected to be sideways [39][44][45]. 9. Glass - The price of the original sheet is stable. The domestic float glass price is generally stable, with weak downstream orders and some areas in the payment collection stage [49][50]. 10. Methanol - It is sideways with support. The port inventory is decreasing, but the MTO fundamentals are weak, and there is a cost support at the bottom [51][54][55]. 11. Urea - It is in a sideways operation. The enterprise inventory is decreasing, the demand - side drive is neutral, and there is support at the bottom for the 05 contract [57][59]. 12. Styrene - It is in a short - term sideways pattern. Pure benzene is expected to have a wide - range sideways pattern with a low - to - high center of gravity in 2026, and styrene processing fees are expected to remain at a high level [60][61]. 13. Soda Ash - The spot market has little change. The domestic soda ash market is stable, with weak demand from downstream enterprises and short - term price weakness [65][66]. 14. LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: The short - term trend is weak. - **Propylene**: There is support in the short - term due to the expectation of supply reduction and demand increase [68][72]. 15. PVC - The trend is weak. It is in a pattern of high production and high inventory, with limited rebound space and high pressure on long - position holders to take delivery [76][77]. 16. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: It is mainly in a sideways pattern with support at the bottom. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The night - session is strong, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market has rebounded slightly [79]. 17. Freight Index (European Line) - For the 02 contract, pay attention to delivery opportunities; for the 04 contract, maintain rolling short - selling; for far - month contracts, pay attention to the progress of the Gaza peace talks [81]. 18. Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip - **Short - Fiber**: It follows the rise of raw materials in the short - term, and the processing fee is compressed. - **Bottle Chip**: It follows the rise of raw materials in the short - term [97][98]. 19. Offset Printing Paper - It is recommended to wait and see. The market price is stable, the cost is high, the demand is weak, and the industry is in a weak balance [100][101][103]. 20. Pure Benzene - It is in a short - term sideways pattern. In 2026, it is expected to be in a wide - range sideways pattern with a low - to - high center of gravity, and the current inventory is high [104][105].

期 货 研 究 2025 年 12 月 22 日 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 22185 | 230 | 15 | 305 | 1435 | | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 22245 | - | - | ー | - | | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | | | | | | | | | | 2956 | 39 | 81 | 70 | 349 | | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 225621 | 37177 | -3581 | 1823 | 72280 | | | 电解铝 | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 315093 | 20928 | 290 | -104973 | 70065 | | | | LME铝3M成交量 | 21594 | -11947 | -1277 | 275 | 8371 | | | | LME注销仓单占比 | 14. 20% | 0. 00% | 7. 46% ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Short - fiber and bottle - chip prices are following the increase of raw materials in the short term, with short - fiber processing fees being compressed [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Short - fiber**: - Futures prices of short - fiber contracts (2601, 2602, 2603) increased, with short - fiber 2601 rising from 6180 to 6286, short - fiber 2602 from 6172 to 6292, and short - fiber 2603 from 6108 to 6276 [1]. - Spreads between contracts (PF01 - 02, PF02 - 03) changed, with PF01 - 02 dropping from 8 to - 6 and PF02 - 03 decreasing by 48 [1]. - The short - fiber主力基差 decreased from 108 to 38, the主力持仓 volume decreased from 141087 to 133093, and the主力 trading volume decreased from 220316 to 219076 [1]. - The short - fiber East China spot price increased from 6280 to 6330, and the short - fiber production and sales rate rose from 72% to 92% [1]. - **Bottle - chip**: - Futures prices of bottle - chip contracts (2601, 2602, 2603) increased, with bottle - chip 2601 rising from 5610 to 5672, bottle - chip 2602 from 5700 to 5766, and bottle - chip 2603 from 5698 to 5772 [1]. - Spreads between contracts (PR01 - 02, PR02 - 03) changed, with PR01 - 02 dropping from - 90 to - 94 and PR02 - 03 decreasing by 10 [1]. - The bottle - chip主力基差 decreased from - 21 to - 52, the主力持仓 volume increased from 37457 to 37920, and the主力 trading volume increased from 37859 to 63494 [1]. - The bottle - chip East China spot price increased from 5675 to 5720, and the bottle - chip South China spot price increased from 5700 to 5780 [1]. 3.2 Spot News - **Short - fiber**: Raw material futures rose significantly, and short - fiber spot factories mostly raised prices by about 150 yuan/ton. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber improved, with an average production and sales rate of 92% by 3:00 pm [1]. - **Bottle - chip**: Upstream raw material futures rose strongly, and polyester bottle - chip factories mostly raised their quotes by 50 - 100 yuan. The trading atmosphere in the polyester bottle - chip market was average, and 12 - 2 month orders were mostly traded at 5700 - 5740 yuan/ton ex - factory [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of short - fiber and bottle - chip is 0, indicating a neutral trend for the day - session main - contract futures prices on the report day [2].

2025 年 12 月 22 日 合成橡胶：逐渐步入震荡格局 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 yanghonghan025588@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 合成橡胶基本面数据 | 项目 | | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 顺丁橡胶主力 （02合约） | 日盘收盘价 成交量 | （元/吨） （手） | 11,020 127,276 | 11,040 127,434 | -20 -158 | | | | 持仓量 | （手） | 101,995 | 101,376 | 619 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 703,480 | 706,452 | -2972 | | 价差数据 | 基差 | 山东顺丁-期货主力 | | -170 | -90 | -80 | | | 月差 | BR01-BR05 | | -80 | -125 | 45 | | 现货市场 | 顺丁价格 | 华北顺丁 | （民营） | 10,600 | 10,650 | | | | | ...

| 业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监 午可 【2011】1292号 2025年12月20日 | | | | 纪元菲 | Z0013180 | | 现货价格及主力合约基差 | | | | | | | 品和 | 12月18日 | 12月17日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 华东通氧S15530工业硅 | 9200 | 9200 | O | 0.00% | | | 基差(通氧S15530基准) | ર્ | 730 | -175 | -23.97% | | | 华东SI4210工业硅 | 9650 | 9650 | O | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 基差 (Sl4210基准) | 205 | 380 | -175 | -46.05% | | | 新疆99硅 | 8750 | 8750 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 基差(新疆) | | 1080 | -175 | -16.20% | | | 月间价差 | | | | | | | 合药 | 12月18日 | 12月17日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 ...

长江有色网12月17日讯，今日氧化铝震荡上扬，主力月2601合约高开高走，价格重心重回2.5千元上 方；截止当日15：00收盘，氧化铝主力月2601合约报2558元，涨24元，涨幅0.95%；12个合约累计成交 372,105手，比前一交易日减少488,798手，跌幅30.16%；持仓量603,146手减少3,011手，跌幅0.50%。 今日国内氧化铝现货价格跌势为主；据长江有色网ccmn数据，12月17日氧化铝华南地区每吨报2810- 2860元之间，与前一交易日报价持平；华东地区氧化铝每吨报2730-2770元之间，与前一交易日报价跌 10元；西南地区氧化铝每吨2820-2860元之间，与前一交易日报价跌5元；西北地区氧化铝每吨报2950- 2990元之间，与前一交易日报价持平。 长江有色金属网www.ccmn.cn 电话：0592-5668838 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 宏观层面，美国11月非农就业增长超预期，不过失业率升至4.6%，这使市场对美国明年进一步降息的 预期升温，同时对美元和美债收益率形成压制。国内方面，12月10日至11日召开的中央经济工作会议备 受关注。会议将扩大内需列为 ...

| | 业期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询 务 【2011】1292号 2025年12月19日 | | | | 纪元菲 | Z0013180 | | 现货价格及主力合约基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 12月17日 | 12月16日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 华东通氧SI5530工业硅 | 9200 | 9200 | O | 0.00% | | | 墓差 (通室S15530章准) | 730 | 835 | -105 | -12.57% | | | 华东SI4210工业硅 | 9650 | 9650 | O | 0.00% | | | 基差 (SI4210基准) | 380 | 485 | -105 | -21.65% | 元/吨 | | 新疆99硅 | 8750 | 8750 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 基差(新疆) | 1080 | 1185 | -105 | -8.86% | | | 月间价差 | | | | | | | 合钩 | 12月17日 | 12月16日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | ...