配置上，从规避不确定性的角度，自主科技、受益欧洲资本开支扩张的板块、纯内需必选消费、稳定红利 以及不依赖短期业绩的题材料将占优。我们认为市场将在广义上的内循环、新的科技主题轮动。 图片来源：摄图网 PPPPAAAARRRRTTTT 1111 关注内循环 僵持阶段看什么 策略聚焦 裘翔 刘春彤 杨家骥 高玉森 连一席 遥远 玛西高娃 贸易战僵持阶段，超预期的刺激和基于妥协的贸易协议都很难发生；僵持阶段比的是两国的经济韧性，中 国的政策选项更多、空间更大、能耗更久，对美国而言，7月前大规模的国债到期可能会是特朗普关税政策 的第一个动摇点；A股也是中国贸易战中提振信心的关键环节，应充分相信国家维护资本市场稳定的决心， 港股可能是阶段性的薄弱环节，但也要看到内地资金依旧整体明显低配港股。配置上，从规避不确定性的 角度，自主科技、受益欧洲资本开支扩张的板块、纯内需必选消费、稳定红利以及不依赖短期业绩的题材 料将占优。 风险因素：中美科技、贸易、金融领域摩擦加剧；国内政策力度、实施效果及经济复苏不及预期；海内外 宏观流动性超预期收紧；俄乌、中东地区冲突进一步升级；我国房地产库存消化不及预期；特朗普政策侧 重点超预期。 点 ...

文 ｜ 秦培景 刘易 王冠然 田鹏 王涛 侯苏洋 王子昂 任恒毅 卿施典 白弘伟 精密仪器是现代工业和科技发展的基石。近年来大国竞争日趋激烈，美国对精密仪器封锁围堵风险提升。研究国内新兴产业发展现状，复盘国际 精密仪器巨头崛起经验，能从多个关键维度帮助我们把握中国精密仪器投资机遇。结合国内精密仪器企业市场生态，我们建议通过三条主线投资 中国精密仪器赛道突围：1）寻找下游应用领域丰富的光学仪器赛道中的"中国蔡司"；2）寻找受益国内高端制造产业链崛起的电子测量仪器赛 道中的"中国惠普"；3）寻找国产替代弹性十足的分析仪器赛道中的"中国赛默飞"。 ▍ 精密仪器是"卡脖子"关键项目，也是科技自强核心方向。 精密仪器作为现代工业和科技发展的基石，是推动产业升级、提高生产效率的重要工具。历史上有许多精密仪器获得了诺贝尔物理学、化学、 生理学或医学奖。据美国商务部国家标准局评估报告（转引自机械工程学报微信公众号），仪器仪表只占其工业总产值的4%，但对GNP的影 响达到6 6%。2 0 2 3年全球分析仪器市场规模4 9 8亿美元，产品种类繁多。我国精密仪器行业起步晚，自主创新能力较为薄弱，企业规模较小， 高端仪器的主要市场 ...

Core Viewpoint - Precision instruments are critical for modern industrial and technological development, and the increasing competition among major powers, particularly the U.S. restrictions, presents both challenges and opportunities for China's precision instrument sector [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Overview - Precision instruments account for only 4% of industrial output value but have a significant impact on GNP, estimated at 66% [2]. - The global analytical instrument market was valued at $49.8 billion in 2023, with a diverse range of products [2]. - China's precision instrument industry is relatively nascent, with weak independent innovation capabilities and small enterprise scales, leading to a high dependency on foreign manufacturers for high-end instruments [2][8]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The trade restrictions on high-end analytical instruments have resulted in a significant trade deficit of $65.4 million in 2023 for China, particularly in optical analysis, mass spectrometry, and chromatography [8]. - The shift in domestic customer attitudes towards supply chain security and cost reduction has led to a gradual decline in the reliance on foreign brands [2]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Three main investment lines are suggested for penetrating the Chinese precision instrument market: 1. Identify opportunities in the optical instrument sector, akin to "China's Zeiss" [47]. 2. Explore the electronic measurement instrument sector, similar to "China's HP" [48]. 3. Focus on the analytical instrument sector, which has low domestic replacement rates, resembling "China's Thermo Fisher" [49]. Group 4: International Comparisons - The growth of international precision instrument leaders is often based on strong theoretical foundations and innovative research methods, establishing a leading position early in market development [20]. - Companies like Zeiss and Thermo Fisher have successfully leveraged innovation and strategic acquisitions to expand their market presence and capabilities [25][30]. Group 5: Domestic Industry Trends - China's high-tech industries are rapidly developing, leading to increased demand for upstream instrument equipment, particularly in sectors like new energy vehicles, lithium batteries, photovoltaics, and semiconductors [34]. - The domestic instrument market is expected to see significant growth in the context of import substitution, driven by the need for supply chain stability and cost reduction [34][38]. Group 6: Future Outlook - The domestic precision instrument sector is poised for a wave of mergers and acquisitions, as companies seek to enhance their market positions and competitiveness through consolidation [46].

Group 1: Precision Instruments - The article emphasizes that precision instruments are the cornerstone of modern industry and technology development, with increasing risks from U.S. restrictions [1] - It suggests three main investment lines in China's precision instrument sector: seeking "China's Zeiss" in optical instruments, "China's HP" in electronic measurement instruments, and "China's Thermo Fisher" in analytical instruments [1] Group 2: Chromium Chemicals - The price of metal chromium has significantly increased, with a total price hike of 10,000 yuan per ton since the beginning of 2025, indicating strong demand and supply dynamics [2] - The article recommends investing in leading companies with integrated chromium product layouts due to the favorable market conditions [2] Group 3: Insurance Companies - Insurance companies face challenges in asset-liability matching, with a near 50% allocation to fixed-income assets, leading to risks of interest margin losses [3][4] - The article highlights three strategies for insurance capital to enhance investment returns: participating in private placements, strategic investments, and shareholding strategies [3][4] Group 4: Wind Power - The domestic and international offshore wind power sectors are expected to see sustained growth, with domestic installations projected to exceed 12 GW in 2025, doubling year-on-year [6] - The article suggests focusing on various segments of the offshore wind power supply chain, including turbines, subsea cables, and foundations [6] Group 5: ETF Market - The global ETF market is projected to reach $15.09 trillion by 2024, while China's ETF market remains relatively small and underdeveloped [7] - The article advocates for domestic institutions to innovate product types and enhance liquidity mechanisms to build a sustainable market ecosystem [7]

秦培景｜中信证券 首席策略师 S1010512050004 主题策略｜精密仪器：科技自主柱石，品牌成长良机 精密仪器是现代工业和科技发展的基石。近年来大国竞争日趋激烈，美国对精密仪器 封锁围堵风险提升。研究国内新兴产业发展现状，复盘国际精密仪器巨头崛起经验， 能从多个关键维度帮助我们把握中国精密仪器投资机遇。结合国内精密仪器企业市场 生态，我们建议通过三条主线投资中国精密仪器赛道突围：1）寻找下游应用领域丰 富的光学仪器赛道中的"中国蔡司"；2）寻找受益国内高端制造产业链崛起的电子测 量仪器赛道中的"中国惠普"；3）寻找国产替代弹性十足的分析仪器赛道中的"中国赛 默飞"。 风险因素：中美科技贸易等领域摩擦超预期加剧；宏观经济周期波动风险；科技领域 海外技术迭代速度超预期；技术突破难度较大；市场认知与品牌建设不及预期风险； 资金和人才竞争风险。 王喆｜中信证券 能源与材料产业首席分析师 S1010513110001 铬化工｜金属铬价格跳涨，强烈推荐板块投资机遇 2025年4月18日，振华股份宣布其金属铬产品单吨售价大幅调涨5000元，此前公司已 于2月10日、3月13日连续调涨金属铬单吨售价3000/2000元 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the market is gradually recovering, with the overall A-share market down by 4.31%. The Sci-Tech 50, Shanghai 50, and CSI 300 indices showed relative resilience, while the CSI 1000, micro-cap stocks, and ChiNext index led the decline. In terms of sector performance, consumer and financial real estate sectors were more resilient, while pharmaceuticals, advanced manufacturing, and other sectors faced declines [1][14]. - The report highlights the "counter-tariff" measures and the determination to stabilize the market in response to the U.S. tariffs. It notes that the Chinese government has taken rapid countermeasures to maintain a strong stance against U.S. tariff threats, which are characterized as "digital games" [3][33]. - The report emphasizes that the Chinese assets exhibit strong endogenous stability, and the impact of external market shocks may favor the return of foreign capital. It suggests that the unpredictability of U.S. tariffs should lead to a stable outlook rather than a reactive one [5][9]. Group 2 - The report discusses the significant market fluctuations following the announcement of "counter-tariffs," leading to a "three-kill" scenario in U.S. stocks, bonds, and currency. The S&P 500 index fell sharply, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield experienced a rapid decline before rebounding after the announcement of a 90-day delay in tariff implementation [4][42]. - The report outlines the measures taken by the "national team" to stabilize the market, including increased holdings in ETFs such as the CSI 300, Shanghai 50, and others. The report notes that these actions are part of a broader strategy to support the capital market and restore investor confidence [3][50]. - The report identifies key investment directions, including domestic demand, independent innovation, countermeasures, the Belt and Road Initiative, dividends, and gold as a hedge against uncertainty. It emphasizes the importance of enhancing domestic circulation to mitigate the impact of export fluctuations [5][9].

今日早盘，市值大约2万亿港元的阿里巴巴开盘小幅回落后，临近10点快速拉升股价涨幅一度超6%。作 为电商巨头，阿里巴巴未来投资价值几何？ 核心业务价值：从传统电商到AI基建的升维重构 一方面，在电商基本盘上，阿里呈现出防守与进化的双重逻辑。 在用户粘性与生态壁垒上，阿里尽管传统电商增速放缓（2024年营收增速8.3%），但淘天集团仍保持 4600万88VIP会员规模，单季度新增400万高净值用户。通过"退货宝""体验分"等用户体验优化，用户年 均消费频次提升至5.2次，客单价环比回升7.3%。其护城河已从流量规模转向生态粘性，支付宝、高德 地图等协同入口日均引流超3亿次。 与此同时，阿里从价格战转向价值竞争。 在拼多多GMV超越淘宝的竞争压力下，阿里主动弱化低价内卷，转而通过"商家分层运营"提升供给质 量。2024年双11期间，服饰、美妆等高毛利品类GMV占比提升至42%，带动客户管理收入（CMR）增 长9%。这一战略转向类似沃尔玛从"天天平价"到品质升级的进化路径。 此外，阿里在AI产业趋势下驱动效率革命。 阿里云通过通义大模型重构电商运营，例如AI客服替代率超70%，广告投放ROI提升22%。其自主开发 的 ...

Core Insights - The Sci-Tech Innovation Board (STAR Market) has become a key area for nurturing new productive forces in China's capital market since its launch in July 2019, with 584 listed companies and a total market capitalization exceeding 7.62 trillion yuan as of February 2025 [1] - The launch of the Bosera STAR Market Composite Price Index Enhanced Fund focuses on "hard technology" and aims to invest in innovative companies with high market recognition and breakthrough core technologies [1] - The STAR Market Composite Price Index has shown significant growth, with a return rate of 15.37% from December 31, 2019, to April 3, 2025, outperforming major indices like CSI 300 and CSI 500 [2] Market Performance - As of April 3, 2025, the STAR Market Composite Price Index has a price-to-earnings ratio of 170.33 and a price-to-book ratio of 3.91, indicating relatively lower valuations compared to other indices, which enhances its cost-effectiveness for investment [2] - The index covers 567 constituent stocks with an average market capitalization of 13.1 billion yuan, achieving a market capitalization coverage of 97%, which is more balanced compared to other indices [3] Sector Focus - The index has a high concentration in hard technology sectors, with the top six industries being electronics (44.46%), biomedicine, computers, power equipment, machinery, and national defense, collectively accounting for over 92% of the index [3] - The top ten holdings include leading electronic companies such as Haiguang Information and Cambrian, benefiting from the global industrial chain restructuring [3] Financial Metrics - The constituent stocks have an average gross profit margin exceeding 30%, indicating strong profitability and significant earnings volatility, with current performance potentially in a recovery phase [3] - The research and development expenditure as a percentage of revenue has consistently remained around 10% from 2020 to 2023, significantly higher than that of the ChiNext and CSI All Share Index, reflecting a strong technological moat [3] Investment Strategy - The Bosera STAR Market Composite Price Index Enhanced Fund employs a quantitative investment strategy aimed at generating excess returns while controlling tracking errors through a comprehensive process that includes cost control, multi-factor stock selection, and risk budgeting [5] - The fund is managed by an experienced quantitative investment professional with nearly a decade of experience, leveraging Bosera's established index enhancement system [5]

以下文章来源于教你挖掘基 ，作者挖掘基 教你挖掘基 . 投资理财有方法，我们手把手教你挖掘牛基~ 在这个乍暖还寒的春日里，海外惊雷乍起。 手机推送接连震动——特朗普超预期的关税政策似灰犀牛般横冲直撞，全球风险资产在流动性冲击下犹如惊弓之鸟，一片风声鹤唳。 北京时间4月3日凌晨，特朗普公布对等关税措施：对全球征收10%的基准关税，4月5日生效；对美国贸易逆差最高的60个国家征收额外关税，其中中国商品面临 34%的关税税率加征，将于4月9日生效。 随后，中国商务部迅速11箭齐发，以同等力度反击：对所有美国进口商品加征34%关税，限制中重稀土出口，并 对16家美国实体列入出口管制管控。 （来源：Choice） 特朗普2.0时代关税政策不仅针对中国，更将欧盟、加拿大、墨西哥甚至印度洋的无人企鹅岛纳入打击范围，试图通过"极限施压"重塑全球贸 易规则。 书房台灯的光正好点亮案头那本泛黄的《论持久战》，封面上毛主席的笔迹苍劲如铁。 此刻的贸易硝烟，恰似1930年代延安窑洞里的灯火，穿透时空照亮今日的迷雾。 01 灰犀牛事件的"已知"与"未知" ——特朗普关税的本质 关税，这个看似简单的经济工具，是进口国对跨境商品设置的通行 ...