软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 7 月 24 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 周三，ICE 美棉上涨 0.06%，报收 68.29 美分/磅，CF509 环比上涨 0.04%，报收 14180 | | | | 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比下降 15967 手至 53.82 万手，新疆地区棉花到厂价为 15411 | | | | 元/吨，较前一日下降 5 元/吨，中国棉花价格指数 3128B 级为 15543 元/吨，较前 | | | | 一日下降 6 元/吨。国际市场方面，近期美棉整体驱动有限，市场关注重心更多在 | | | | 于宏观层面，美元指数低位震荡，7 月美联储议息会议大概率按兵不动，9 月降息 | | | | 概率较大，关注预期是否会有变动，基本面驱动有限。国内市场方面，郑棉期价日 | 宽幅震 | | | 内震荡走势。消息面，昨日商务部发言人称，中美将于 7 月 27 日至 30 日在瑞典举 | | | | 行会谈，关注谈判结果，或对棉价有新的驱动。近期郑棉驱动的主要因素是低进 | 荡 | | | 口、低库存的现 ...

Variety Views Stock Index Futures - On July 23, the three major A - share indexes rose and then fell. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.01% to close at 3582.30 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.37% to 11059.04 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.01% to 2310.67 points. The trading volume of the two markets was 1864.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 28.4 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - The CSI 300 index showed a strong shock on July 23, closing at 4119.77, a环比 increase of 0.81 [2] Coking Coal and Coke - On July 23, the coking coal weighted index closed at 1161.9 yuan, with a环比 increase of 105.7, and the coke weighted index closed at 1717.6, with a环比 increase of 58.8 [3][4] - For coke, good steel - enterprise profits drive some blast furnaces to resume production, high daily hot - metal output supports rigid demand, and the second round of spot price increase has started. For coking coal, the notice on production verification tightens the supply expectation, and the inventory has been decreasing for 4 consecutive weeks [5] Zhengzhou Sugar - Early signs indicate a possible global sugar supply surplus in the 2025/26 season. Brazil's dry climate may add about 3.2 million tons of sugar supply. Although the US sugar price fell, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract rose slightly on July 23, and continued to rise at night due to capital support [5] Rubber - Affected by technical factors, Shanghai rubber oscillated and closed slightly lower on July 23, and fluctuated slightly at night. In June 2025, the global light - vehicle annualized sales reached 93 million vehicles, with a year - on - year increase of 2.1% to 7.73 million vehicles [6] Palm Oil - On July 23, palm oil showed a high - level wide - range shock. The highest price was 9088, the lowest was 8908, and it closed at 8994, up 0.76% from the previous day. Malaysia's palm oil production from July 1 - 20 increased by 11.24% compared with the same period last month [7] Shanghai Copper - Sino - US trade relaxation and domestic policies to stabilize the non - ferrous industry boost market sentiment, but the cooling of interest - rate cut expectations before the Fed's July meeting makes the macro - sentiment neutral. The tight supply of mainstream copper supports the price, and the market is in a tight - balance state [7] Cotton - The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14140 yuan/ton on the night of July 23. On July 24, the lowest basis quotation of Xinjiang designated delivery warehouses was 430 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 54 lots [8] Iron Ore - On July 23, the main contract of iron ore 2509 closed down 0.61% at 812 yuan. The shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased slightly, and the arrivals dropped significantly, while the hot - metal output rebounded. The price may fluctuate in the short term [8] Asphalt - On July 23, the main contract of asphalt 2509 closed down 0.47% at 3594 yuan. The operating rate of asphalt plants decreased last week, and the low social inventory increased the refinery shipments. The price will fluctuate in the short term [8] Logs - The 2509 log contract opened at 841.5 on July 22, with a low of 812.5, a high of 848.5, and closed at 823, with a reduction of 3299 lots. The market faced high - level pressure. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged, and the spot trading was weak [8][9] Steel - On July 23, rb2510 closed at 3274 yuan/ton, and hc2510 closed at 3438 yuan/ton. The rising coking coal price drives up the steel cost, but the steel demand is hard to improve in the high - temperature off - season, and the price increase may slow down [9] Alumina - On July 23, ao2509 closed at 3355 yuan/ton. The "anti - involution" policy, bauxite disturbances in Guinea, and low warehouse receipts drive the price up, but the short - term production cut probability is low, and the medium - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged [9] Shanghai Aluminum - On July 23, al2509 closed at 20790 yuan/ton. The electrolytic aluminum supply increases slightly, the downstream operating rate is still weak, and the inventory is in a low - level shock. The current price increase is driven by policies and cost, and the follow - up needs to pay attention to policy implementation and inventory pressure [10][11]

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a slight upward trend after initial declines, with sectors such as coal, photovoltaic equipment, batteries, and liquor performing well, while banking, gaming, communication services, and internet services lagged behind [1] - Long-term capital inflow into the market is accelerating, with steady growth in ETF sizes and continuous inflow of insurance funds, providing significant support [1] - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates in June, but uncertainty remains regarding the path of potential rate cuts, which could significantly boost global risk appetite if clear signals are released [1] Group 2 - The A-share market's three major indices continued to show upward momentum, with the Shanghai Composite Index stabilizing above 3500 points and approaching 3600 points [2] - The current core pricing logic in the equity market is increasingly reflected in policies such as "domestic circulation" and "anti-involution," alongside active thematic investment opportunities, suggesting a continuation of the upward trend [2] - Despite external uncertainties, the overall market is expected to maintain a strong upward trajectory [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Cotton is expected to be in a volatile pattern. ICE US cotton fell 0.86% to 68.09 cents per pound on Monday, and CF509 decreased 0.8% to 14,185 yuan per ton. The main contract's open interest decreased by 21,871 lots to 558,900 lots. While the low - inventory situation remains unchanged, the upward driving force has weakened. Considering the strong expectation of a new cotton harvest and no obvious improvement in demand, it is difficult for prices to rise continuously. It is advisable to sell out - of - the - money call options with higher prices and buy out - of - the - money put options with lower prices [1]. - Sugar is also expected to be volatile. In June, China's imports of syrup and premixes totaled 115,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 103,500 tons. Due to concerns about over - production, raw sugar prices are under pressure. Domestically, sugar producers in the production areas are actively selling to reduce inventory, and the influence of processed sugar is gradually increasing. In the short term, prices lack a clear direction, and in the medium term, they depend on the pace and intensity of imported sugar [1]. Group 3: Summary of Each Section 1. Daily Data Monitoring - For cotton, the 9 - 1 spread is 195 yuan, a decrease of 110 yuan compared to the previous period. The main contract basis is 1,404 yuan, an increase of 166 yuan. The Xinjiang spot price is 15,480 yuan per ton, an increase of 56 yuan, and the national spot price is 15,589 yuan per ton, an increase of 81 yuan [2]. - For sugar, the 9 - 1 spread is 170 yuan, an increase of 1 yuan. The main contract basis is 241 yuan, a decrease of 13 yuan. The Nanning spot price is 6,060 yuan per ton, an increase of 10 yuan, and the Liuzhou spot price is 6,080 yuan per ton, unchanged [2]. 2. Market Information - On July 21, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 9,501, a decrease of 31 from the previous trading day, with 223 valid forecasts [3]. - On July 21, the cotton arrival prices in different regions were: 15,480 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 15,650 yuan per ton in Henan, 15,563 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 15,803 yuan per ton in Zhejiang [3]. - On July 21, the yarn comprehensive load was 49.9, unchanged from the previous day; the yarn comprehensive inventory was 30.1, a decrease of 0.1; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 48.1, unchanged; and the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 33.8, unchanged [3]. - On July 21, the sugar spot prices were 6,060 yuan per ton in Nanning, an increase of 10 yuan, and 6,080 yuan per ton in Liuzhou, unchanged [3]. - On July 21, the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 21,437, a decrease of 40 from the previous trading day, with 0 valid forecasts [4]. 3. Chart Analysis - The report presents multiple charts including cotton and sugar's main contract closing prices, basis, 9 - 1 spreads, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, and China's cotton price index, with data sources from Wind and the research institute [6][11][13][15]. 4. Research Team Introduction - Zhang Xiaojin is the director of resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on the sugar industry. He has won many awards [18]. - Zhang Linglu is a resource product analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, responsible for futures varieties such as urea and soda - ash glass, and has won many honors [19]. - Sun Chengzhen is a resource product analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys, and has won relevant honors [20].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - The report provides short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on gold and copper, suggesting a short - term bullish outlook for both metals [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Price Performance**: New York gold has again exceeded the $3400 mark, and Shanghai gold has exceeded the 785 yuan mark. Since July, the US dollar index has rebounded and showed a high - level decline yesterday, facing pressure at the 60 - day moving average [3]. - **Viewpoints**: Short - term view is upward, medium - term is sideways, and intraday is sideways - bullish. The overall reference view is short - term bullish [1][3]. - **Core Logic**: The decline of the US dollar is beneficial to the gold price. As the Fed's interest - rate meeting on July 30 and the important US tariff time point on August 1 approach, market risk appetite may decline. Technically, gold has broken through the sideways high since July with strong upward momentum [1][3]. Copper - **Price Performance**: Last Friday night, Shanghai copper increased positions and rose, with the main contract price exceeding the 79,000 yuan mark. On Monday, it continued to increase positions and rise during the day, approaching the 80,000 yuan mark and maintaining a strong performance at night. The monthly spread of Shanghai copper has been weakening, in line with the macro - market feature of near - term weakness and far - term strength [5]. - **Viewpoints**: Short - term view is upward, medium - term is upward, and intraday is upward. The overall reference view is short - term bullish [1][5]. - **Core Logic**: After the market digested the impact of US tariffs, the improvement of domestic and international macro - economies has pushed up the copper price. Good US economic data last Thursday and the upcoming release of a growth - stabilization plan for ten key industries in China have led to a general rise in commodities. On the industrial level, with the continuous emergence of domestic macro - positives, industrial expectations may improve, and the inventory of electrolytic copper decreased significantly on Monday [1][5].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core Views - For building materials (成材), it is expected to run in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center moving down and showing weak performance. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the winter storage this year is sluggish, providing little support for prices [1][2]. - For aluminum ingots, the price is expected to run in a high - level range in the short term. The inventory trend is fluctuating during the off - season, and the upward space is limited by the off - season pressure on the demand side. Attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream start - up rates [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Contents Building Materials - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises are expected to stop production for maintenance from mid - January, resuming around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most others will stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [1][2]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2]. - Building materials prices continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low recently. The market sentiment is pessimistic, and there are few bright spots both macro - economically and industrially [2]. Aluminum Ingots - As of last Thursday, the total built - in production capacity of metallurgical alumina in China was 110.82 million tons/year, and the operating total production capacity was 88.63 million tons/year. The weekly alumina start - up rate decreased by 0.31 percentage points to 79.97%. By the end of June, the inventory in alumina enterprises increased by 81,000 tons [2]. - Affected by factors such as the high - temperature off - season, high aluminum prices, insufficient profit margins, and weak downstream demand, the start - up rate of the aluminum processing industry decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 58.7% last week [2]. - On July 10, 2024, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in the main consumption areas in China was 466,000 tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons from Monday and 8,000 tons from last Thursday. The inventory decreased in the short term due to more ingot casting in some areas and less arrival [2]. - The inventory trend is fluctuating during the off - season. The impact of the rainy season in Guinea is reflected in the ore price, but the off - season pressure on the demand side limits the upward space [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The egg futures price is falling. Due to high inventory of laying hens, increased supply of small - sized eggs, and weak demand in summer, the egg price is expected to remain low in the first half of July, but the decline is limited [3]. - The A - share market is expected to continue high - level oscillations. Gold is expected to rise in the long - term, and it's advisable to buy at low prices when it reaches important support levels. Iron ore has a high over - valuation risk, and a wide - range oscillation approach is recommended. Glass market needs real estate stimulus or major policies, and a shock approach is appropriate. Soybean oil may oscillate or strengthen in the short - term, and short - selling with a light position is advised when it reaches the previous high pressure area [7][11][15][19][23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Egg Futures - Supply: High inventory of laying hens, increasing number of newly - laid hens, and increased supply of small - sized eggs lead to large supply pressure, and the pressure is hard to relieve soon [3]. - Demand: Summer is the off - season for egg consumption. School holidays reduce canteen purchases, and overall demand is weak and hard to change in the short - term. However, low prices may stimulate supermarket promotions and trader restocking [3]. - Price Outlook: Affected by the leap June, the egg price will remain low in the first half of July. The low - price area has delivery and cold - storage stocking, limiting the decline. Observe the strong support area of 3370 - 3350 for the main egg futures contract [3]. A - share Market - Market Performance: On Monday, the three major A - share indexes opened high and closed low, with only the Shanghai Composite Index closing in the positive territory above 3470 points. The market is expected to continue high - level oscillations [8][7]. Gold - Market Factors: The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates reduces the expectation of rate cuts this year, causing gold to adjust. But the long - term upward trend remains unchanged, and it's advisable to buy at low prices when it reaches important support levels [12][11]. Iron Ore - Market Situation: Supply is rising month - on - month, iron - water production is seasonally weakening, and ports are accumulating inventory again. The weak reality increases the over - valuation risk of iron ore. Technically, it shows a trend of rising and then falling, and a wide - range oscillation approach is recommended [16][15]. Glass - Supply and Demand: There is no major cold - repair situation due to losses on the supply side, factory inventory is high, and downstream deep - processing orders have weak restocking power, so demand is not continuously increasing. It needs real estate stimulus or major policies. Technically, it has been adjusting at a high level for three days, and a shock approach is appropriate [20][19]. Soybean Oil - Market Trend: Due to the long - term expectation of the US biodiesel policy and the uncertain Middle - East situation, soybean oil may oscillate or strengthen in the short - term. But the current supply - demand is not tight, and it will see seasonal production and inventory increase in the medium - term. When the price reaches the previous high pressure area of 7950 - 8000, short - selling with a light position is advised [23].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The report aims to objectively reflect the research views of futures companies and securities companies on various commodity varieties, track hot - spot varieties, analyze market investment sentiment, and summarize investment driving logics. It is based on the publicly - released research reports of institutions in the current week, and the closing price data is from last Friday, with the weekly change calculated as the change in the closing price from the previous Friday [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情数据 - **Commodities**: From June 23 to June 27, 2025, commodities such as coke, copper, and iron ore had price increases, with coke rising 2.67%, copper rising 2.47%, and iron ore rising 1.92%. Commodities like corn, gold, and palm oil had price decreases, with corn falling 1.04%, gold falling 1.56%, and palm oil falling 1.87%. Crude oil had a significant drop of 12.02% [3]. - **A - shares**: During the same period, the CSI 500 rose 3.98%, the SSE 50 rose 1.27%, and the CSI 300 rose 1.95% [3]. - **Overseas Stocks**: The Nikkei 225 rose 4.55%, the Nasdaq Index rose 4.25%, and the S&P 500 rose 3.44% [3]. - **Bonds**: The 5 - year Chinese Treasury bond rose 0.64%, the 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond rose 0.30%, and the 2 - year Chinese Treasury bond rose 0.19% [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The euro - US dollar exchange rate rose 1.69%, the US dollar index fell 1.52%, and the US dollar central parity rate fell 0.09% [3]. 3.2大宗商品观点汇总 3.2.1宏观金融板块 - **Stock Index Futures**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 5 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included rising Fed rate - cut expectations, a low risk - premium rate of the CSI 300, increased issuance of equity - oriented public funds, and sufficient bottom - supporting funds. Bearish factors included short - term difficulty in improving corporate fundamentals, the central bank's change in monetary policy stance, and over - heated market sentiment [4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Among 7 institutions' views, 3 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 3 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included net liquidity injection by the central bank, weak credit and inflation data, and strong demand for bond allocation. Bearish factors included the central bank's change in monetary policy stance, the stock - bond seesaw effect, and rising long - term interest rates [4]. 3.2.2能源板块 - **Crude Oil**: Among 9 institutions' views, 3 were bullish, 2 were bearish, and 4 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included falling US and Cushing crude oil inventories, reduced Russian exports, and geopolitical tensions. Bearish factors included the decline in geopolitical premiums, expected OPEC production increases, and weak terminal demand [5]. - **Eggs**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 2 were bearish, and 4 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included postponed peak - season stocking, approaching stocking season, potential egg - price increases, and reduced supply due to heat. Bearish factors included limited decline in laying - hen inventory, high chick - replenishment volume, high new - production capacity, and postponed downstream stocking [5]. 3.2.3有色板块 - **Copper**: Among 7 institutions' views, 5 were bullish, 0 were bearish, and 2 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included rising Fed rate - cut expectations, improved risk appetite, and falling global visible inventories. Bearish factors included the substitution effect of recycled copper, weakening downstream procurement, and weakening terminal demand [6]. - **Methanol**: Among 7 institutions' views, 0 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 6 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included limited port - available goods, expected low port inventories, and increased downstream demand. Bearish factors included expected increases in Iranian imports, port inventory accumulation, potential MTO device maintenance, and a loosening supply - demand pattern [6]. 3.2.4贵金属 - **Gold**: Among 7 institutions' views, 4 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 2 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included rising Fed rate - cut expectations, a downward trend in real interest rates, and the strengthening of gold's safe - haven property. Bearish factors included reduced safe - haven demand, capital flowing to risky assets, and technical - level sell - offs [7]. 3.2.5黑色板块 - **Iron Ore**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 2 were bearish, and 4 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included increased molten - iron production, expected decline in overseas shipments, and improved macro sentiment. Bearish factors included rising port inventories, increased global shipments, weakening demand for five major steel products, and narrowing basis [7].

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On June 27, 2025, the coking coal price continued to rise. The price increase was due to multiple factors including supply - side constraints, demand - side expectations, futures market factors, and capital inflows. However, high inventory levels suppressed the price rebound space [3][4][5] - The A - share market is expected to continue to fluctuate upwards as the NDRC released positive policies and data [8][9] - Gold is expected to reach a new high in the long - term despite a short - term adjustment due to the Fed's decision not to cut interest rates. Investors can buy in batches at low prices [12][13] - Iron ore is considered to be in a wide - range oscillation with a slightly stronger trend. Attention should be paid to steel mill profits, industry repair status, and the over - valuation risk caused by weak market conditions [16][17] - Glass is in a narrow - range consolidation, and an uptrend depends on the effects of real - estate stimulus policies or major policy announcements [19][20] - Short - term soybean oil prices may fluctuate or strengthen due to the US biodiesel policy and the Middle - East situation. When the price reaches the previous high pressure area of 8150 - 8100, short - selling with a light position is recommended [23] Group 3: Summaries by Directory Coking Coal - Supply - side factors: In June (the "Safety Production Month"), major coking coal - producing provinces like Shanxi strengthened production restrictions after safety accidents. The upcoming implementation of the new "Mineral Resources Law" on July 1 may force out backward production capacity. Some coal prices are close to cash costs, pressuring private mines to cut production [4] - Demand - side factors: Although the current terminal is in a seasonal off - peak, there is an expected increase in demand during the traditional coking coal peak season from April to October as steel mills may replenish stocks. More macro - policies to stabilize the economy and promote infrastructure could also boost demand [4] - Futures and capital factors: Coking coal futures have been falling since 2025, with a strong need for correction. Some short - position funds took profits and reduced positions, and the net long positions of the top 20 seats increased [5] - Inventory factor: The inventory of imported coking coal at ports and the total inventory are at a three - year high, and the frequent auction failures of Mongolian coal have led to inventory backlogs, suppressing price rebounds [5] A - share Market - Market trend: The three major A - share indexes showed a pattern of rising and then falling, closing with small shrinking - volume negative lines. The market is in a shrinking - volume adjustment state [9] - Policy influence: The NDRC released positive policies and data at a regular press conference, and the market is expected to continue to fluctuate upwards [8][9] Gold - Market situation: The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates has reduced the expectation of rate cuts this year, causing a short - term adjustment in the gold market [13] - Outlook: The long - term trend of gold is still bullish, and it is expected to reach a new high. Investors can buy in batches at low prices [12][13] Iron Ore - Market fundamentals: Supply has increased month - on - month, pig iron production has weakened seasonally, and port inventories have started to accumulate again. The weak market conditions have increased the risk of over - valuation [17] - Technical analysis: The market closed with a large positive line today but remains within a wide - range oscillation, showing a slightly stronger trend [16] Glass - Supply - demand situation: There has been no significant cold - repair of production lines due to losses on the supply side, factory inventories are still high, and downstream deep - processing orders lack the motivation to replenish stocks, resulting in a lack of continuous demand growth [20] - Technical analysis: The market is in a narrow - range consolidation, and an uptrend depends on the effects of real - estate stimulus policies or major policy announcements [19] Soybean Oil - Market factors: The long - term expectations of the US biodiesel policy and the uncertain Middle - East situation may cause short - term price fluctuations or strengthen the market. However, the current supply - demand situation is not tight, and there will be a seasonal increase in production and inventory in the medium - term [23] - Trading strategy: When the price reaches the previous high pressure area of 8150 - 8100, short - selling with a light position is recommended [23]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the implications of the "Big Beautiful Act" and its 899 clause, which targets global minimum corporate tax rates, digital service taxes, and profit shifting taxes, particularly affecting U.S. companies and their international operations [1][2][5]. Core Points and Arguments - The 899 clause aims to counteract unfair tax practices imposed by certain countries on U.S. companies, particularly focusing on "discriminatory countries" such as some European nations, Canada, and Australia [2][3]. - The actual impact of the 899 clause on secondary market investments may be limited, as major economies like China and Japan are not included in the targeted countries [1][2]. - Concerns about inflation due to the Trump administration's immigration policies are raised, suggesting that labor market tightness could lead to increased wages and service prices, although no definitive evidence supports a significant inflation rise [3][9]. - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell exhibits a cautious stance regarding interest rate cuts, emphasizing economic resilience, while Board Member Waller suggests considering a rate cut in July, indicating internal disagreements within the Fed [4][13]. - The U.S. is increasing tax rates on European companies, including higher existing rates on dividends, interest, and rents, while exempting certain investment income, which may have a minor impact on the secondary market [5][7]. - Differences between the House and Senate versions of the Big Beautiful Act's 899 clause include implementation dates and definitions of discriminatory countries, with the Senate version being more lenient [8]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The current labor market demand in the U.S. is slowing down, with a notable decrease in non-farm job vacancies, suggesting that the labor market is not experiencing a significant supply-demand imbalance [11]. - The number of immigrants detained and deported this year is relatively low compared to the total number of new immigrants during the Biden administration, indicating that immigration supply has not significantly contracted [10]. - There are mixed views on whether immigration enforcement will lead to inflation; some argue it could lower inflation by reducing housing costs, as immigration is correlated with rising rents [12]. - The Fed's recent meeting revealed lowered growth forecasts and increased inflation predictions, maintaining expectations for two rate cuts, but with significant uncertainty regarding future tariffs and their inflationary effects [13][14]. - Powell's cautious approach may stem from his desire to avoid risks as he approaches the end of his term, while Waller's more aggressive stance may be aimed at gaining attention for a potential future leadership role within the Fed [15][16].