Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★, indicating a more distinct long - term trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Pulp: ☆☆☆, suggesting that the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current market is less operable, with a focus on waiting and seeing [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆, similar to pulp, short - term balance and low operability [1] - Apple: ★☆☆, showing a bias towards a short - term trend, with a driving force for price movement but limited market operability [1] - Timber: ★★★, representing a clear long - term trend and good investment opportunities [1] - Natural Rubber: ★★★, also indicating a distinct long - term trend and suitable investment opportunities [1] - 20 - rubber: ☆☆☆, short - term balance and low operability [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ☆☆☆, short - term balance and low operability [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various soft commodities including cotton, pulp, sugar, apple, timber, natural rubber, 20 - rubber, and butadiene rubber, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on supply - demand relationships, price trends, and macro - economic factors [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton prices rose slightly today, while cotton spot sales were poor and mostly stable. Xinjiang cotton is likely to have a bumper harvest, with potential output exceeding 7 million tons. There may be a rush for purchasing by ginning mills, but the impact is expected to be controllable. The current hand - picked seed cotton purchase price is around 7.5 yuan/kg, considered high by many ginning mills. The pure - cotton yarn market had average trading, with cautious market sentiment and weak downstream orders. Macroeconomically, details of Sino - US trade negotiations should be watched. Short - term Zhengzhou cotton prices will likely remain volatile, and it is advisable to wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar prices were weak. In the short term, Brazilian sugar production decreased year - on - year, reducing supply pressure. In the medium term, the sugar - alcohol ratio, although down significantly, remains at the upper end of the historical range, suggesting a potentially high sugar - making ratio in Brazil next year. US sugar faces upward pressure. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar prices declined. This year's sugar sales were fast, with lower inventory and less spot pressure. The market's focus has shifted to imports and the next season's production estimate. Syrup imports decreased significantly this year, reducing the sales pressure on domestic sugar. However, the 25/26 season's production is uncertain due to potential weather impacts [3] Apple - Futures prices fluctuated. The demand for early - maturing apples was good, and spot market expectations for the opening price of late - maturing apples in October were high. However, the estimated apple production in the 25/26 quarter will change little year - on - year, lacking bullish drivers on the supply side. In Shaanxi, farmers are more optimistic, and the expected cold - storage inventory in the new season may be higher than expected. Short - term futures prices are expected to decline, and a bearish trading strategy is recommended [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Today, RU, MR, and BR prices fluctuated sharply. The futures market sentiment was positive. The domestic natural rubber spot price was stable, and the synthetic rubber price increased slightly. The global natural rubber supply has entered the high - production season, with excessive rainfall in most Southeast Asian regions. Last week, the domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate dropped significantly, while the upstream butadiene plant operating rate continued to rise. The domestic tire operating rate increased significantly last week, with a slight decrease in all - steel tire inventory and a slight increase in semi - steel tire inventory. The total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao decreased to 586,600 tons, while the domestic butadiene rubber social inventory rose to 134,000 tons, and the upstream butadiene port inventory dropped to 256,000 tons. Overall, demand has recovered, with an increase in natural rubber supply and a decrease in inventory, and a decrease in synthetic rubber supply and an increase in inventory. Cost support is limited. It is recommended to wait and see and closely monitor the Fed's interest - rate decision [5] Pulp - Today, pulp futures prices declined slightly. The spot price of coniferous pulp was adjusted upward, while the price of broad - leaf pulp remained stable. As of September 11, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 2.062 million tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons from the previous period, a 0.2% decline. The inventory is still at a high level year - on - year. The digestion of warehouse receipts is slow, and the warehouse receipts of Russian coniferous pulp still suppress the near - month contracts. China's pulp imports in August 2025 were 2.653 million tons, a decrease of 227,000 tons from the previous month. Macroeconomically, the CCPI in August was - 0.4% year - on - year and flat month - on - month, indicating weak inflation this year. The PPI showed marginal improvement, but the over - capacity in the mid - and downstream sectors hindered the price transmission. Currently, the domestic port inventory is high, pulp supply is relatively abundant, and demand is average. It is advisable to wait and see or trade within a range [6] Timber - Futures prices fluctuated, and the spot price remained stable. Last week, the timber arrival volume decreased significantly. The New Zealand radiata pine price in September dropped by $2. The domestic spot price is weak, reducing traders' import willingness. The high foreign price also makes it difficult for the domestic price to improve, increasing traders' pressure, and imports are unlikely to increase significantly in the short term. The domestic supply is expected to remain low. Demand is entering the peak season, but the export volume has not increased significantly. During the off - season, the daily出库 volume exceeded 60,000 cubic meters, and inventory reduction was smooth. The total log inventory is low, with less inventory pressure. Fundamentally, the supply - demand situation has improved, and the spot price is relatively low. However, the peak - season demand has not yet started, and short - term upward momentum is insufficient. It is recommended to wait and see [7]

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing a downward trend influenced by negotiation impacts, with internet e-commerce showing strength but unable to change the overall downward pattern of the index [1] Market Performance - Early morning indices continued to decline, but began to stabilize and rebound after 10 AM, driven by the automotive chain and robotics sectors [1] - The index showed slight strength throughout the day with a minor increase in trading volume, yet failed to break through the 2.5 trillion mark [1] Future Outlook - Attention is needed on trading volume in the coming days, as the market may face short-term profit-taking pressure ahead of the upcoming holidays [1] - The potential for further index decline of 100 to 200 points is anticipated due to high-level profit-taking demands, historical weak performance of U.S. stocks in September, and the timing of institutional portfolio adjustments [1] Sector Rotation - Sector rotation is expected to continue, with adjustments in computing power and artificial intelligence remaining unchanged, presenting more opportunities as adjustments occur [1] - The index is nearing previous support levels, and a downward trend may help to digest the market's overheated sentiment before a better upward movement is anticipated [1]

周一，美国一家上诉法院拒绝了美国总统特朗普解雇美联储理事丽莎·库克的请求，这是自1913年美联 储成立以来，总统首次尝试采取此类行动。哥伦比亚特区巡回上诉法院的裁决意味着，美联储在当地时 间周二和周三的政议息会议期间，库克暂时可以继续留在美联储。预计特朗普政府将向美国最高法院提 起上诉。此外，当地时间周一，特朗普提名的美联储理事候选人米兰在美国参议院获得确认任命的足够 票数，这将使其能与其他11名票委共同参与美联储本周的利率决策。 ...

Core Points - The U.S. Senate is scheduled to vote on the nomination of Milan to the Federal Reserve Board on Monday evening local time [1] - A procedural vote will take place at 5:30 PM local time, followed by the final confirmation vote around 8 PM [1] - If the nomination is confirmed and all procedures are completed smoothly, Milan may participate in the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting starting Tuesday [1] - There is uncertainty regarding whether Milan can complete the oath of office in time to attend the meeting, as the time from Senate approval to taking office typically takes several days, although there have been instances where nominees attended the FOMC meeting the day after confirmation [1]

Core Viewpoint - Aluminum prices have risen for seven consecutive days, potentially setting a record for the longest streak in over a year, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The benchmark aluminum price on the London Metal Exchange increased by 0.6% to $2,705 per ton during the Asian trading session, reaching the highest level since March [1] - The anticipation of the Federal Reserve's policy decision has led to increased expectations for monetary easing, which has put pressure on the US dollar and boosted industrial metal prices [1] Group 2: Supply Concerns - A surge in aluminum inventory withdrawal requests has raised supply concerns, which continues to support aluminum prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - Aluminum prices have risen for seven consecutive days ahead of the Federal Reserve's meeting, potentially marking the longest streak in over a year, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts and increased supply concerns [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The London Metal Exchange's benchmark aluminum price increased by 0.6% during Asian trading hours, reaching $2,705 per ton, the highest level since March [1] - The rise in aluminum prices is supported by a surge in withdrawal requests from aluminum inventories, raising supply concerns [1] Group 2: Economic Factors - Investor sentiment is influenced by expectations of monetary easing from the Federal Reserve, which has put pressure on the US dollar and subsequently boosted industrial metal prices [1]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Non - ferrous Metals Daily Report on September 15, 2025, from Wukuang Futures [1] Group 2: Copper - Last week, the copper price strengthened. LME copper rose 2.02% to $10,064/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 80,810 yuan/ton. The total inventory of the three major exchanges increased by 12,000 tons, with SHFE inventory up 12,000 to 94,000 tons, LME inventory down 4,000 to 154,000 tons, and COMEX inventory up 5,000 to 282,000 tons. Shanghai bonded area inventory decreased by 4,000 tons. The copper price is expected to fluctuate strongly. The reference range for SHFE copper is 79,000 - 82,500 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is $9,800 - $10,300/ton [2] Group 3: Aluminum - The domestic aluminum ingot inventory decreased, and the aluminum price continued to be strong. LME aluminum rose 0.82% to $2,701/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 21,075 yuan/ton. The inventory of domestic three - place aluminum ingots decreased by 5,500 tons to 462,000 tons. The aluminum price is expected to continue to run strongly. The reference range for SHFE aluminum is 20,900 - 21,250 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is $2,660 - $2,730/ton [4] Group 4: Lead - Last Friday, SHFE lead index rose 0.85% to 17,043 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose to $2,000.5/ton. The lead concentrate TC declined again, the raw materials were in short supply. The production of primary and secondary lead increased year - on - year. The lead price is expected to run strongly in the short term [5] Group 5: Zinc - Last Friday, SHFE zinc index rose 0.29% to 22,318 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S rose to $2,913/ton. The zinc concentrate TC showed differentiation. The domestic zinc ingot social inventory increased, and the overseas LME zinc ingot inventory decreased. The zinc price is expected to run strongly in the short term [6][7] Group 6: Tin - Last week, the tin price rebounded. The supply decreased significantly due to slow复产 in Myanmar and raw material shortages in domestic smelters. The demand improved marginally with the arrival of the traditional peak season. The tin price is expected to oscillate strongly [8] Group 7: Nickel - The nickel ore price was stable. The nickel iron price was strong. The refined nickel price oscillated, with the inventory increasing. In the short term, the nickel price may decline, but in the long term, it has support. The reference range for SHFE nickel is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is $14,500 - $16,500/ton [9][12] Group 8: Lithium Carbonate - The spot index of lithium carbonate decreased by 3.29% last week. The lithium price was suppressed by pessimistic sentiment and loose expectations. The domestic lithium carbonate is expected to continue destocking, which may support the bottom price. The reference range for the main contract of Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 69,900 - 73,300 yuan/ton [14] Group 9: Alumina - On September 12, 2025, the alumina index fell 1.05% to 2,915 yuan/ton. The import window opened. The short - term strategy is to wait and see. The reference range for the main contract AO2601 is 2,800 - 3,100 yuan/ton [16] Group 10: Stainless Steel - On Friday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,950 yuan/ton. The social inventory decreased. The raw material cost increased, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [19] Group 11: Cast Aluminum Alloy - As of Friday, the AD2511 contract rose 0.83% to 20,645 yuan/ton. The downstream is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season. The cost is strongly supported, and the price is expected to remain high in the short term [21]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily research and analysis on various energy - chemical futures, including trends, fundamentals, and trading strategies for each product [2]. - The performance of different products varies, with some in a state of shock, some showing a downward trend, and others with potential investment opportunities in spread trading [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Oil prices are falling, and valuations are dropping again. It is recommended to take a long - short spread position between the November and January contracts. The PXN compression space may be limited, and attention should be paid to the strategy of going long on PX and short on Brent [4][12]. - **PTA**: Cost support is weak. It is advisable to take a long - short spread position between the November and January contracts. The PTA processing fee is difficult to expand, and attention should be paid to the compression of the PTA01/05 processing fee [5][12]. - **MEG**: The market is concerned about the new capacity of Yulong Petrochemical. It is recommended to take a short - long spread position between the January and May contracts. The spot price is in a weak shock state [5][13]. 3.2 Rubber - Rubber is in a wide - range shock state. The trading volume has increased, and the position of the top 20 members' net short has decreased [14][15]. 3.3 Synthetic Rubber - In the short term, it is under shock pressure, and in the medium term, it oscillates within the fundamental valuation range. Although the fundamentals face pressure, there are some positive expectations [20][23]. 3.4 Asphalt - Crude oil prices have fallen, and many regions are accelerating inventory reduction. The overall trend is neutral [24]. 3.5 LLDPE - In the medium term, it is in a shock market. Although demand is improving, the "Golden September" demand peak has not been fully realized, and the market is in a state of shock [39][40]. 3.6 PP - In the short term, it is in a shock state, and in the medium term, there is still pressure. Supply pressure will increase in the future, but short - selling at low levels should be cautious [43][44]. 3.7 Caustic Soda - It is not advisable to chase short positions. Currently, the market is in a wide - range shock, and the driving force for price increases is insufficient [47][48]. 3.8 Pulp - Pulp is in an oscillating operation state. The futures market is affected by the chemical sector, and the demand side is weak, while the international market provides cost support [52][56]. 3.9 Glass - The price of glass original sheets is stable. The market price is slightly weaker, with supply pressure increasing and demand improvement insufficient [57][58]. 3.10 Methanol - Methanol is in an oscillating operation state. The port inventory is accumulating, and the price is under pressure from the supply side, but there is also support from positive expectations and policies [60][63]. 3.11 Urea - Urea is in a weak shock state. In the short term, it is under shock pressure, and in the medium term, the trend is still weak. Export growth may not be able to make up for the weak domestic demand [65][68]. 3.12 Styrene - Styrene is bearish in the medium term. The cost center has moved down, and the short - term downward space has opened up [69][70]. 3.13 Soda Ash - The spot market for soda ash has changed little. The market is weakly stable, and prices are expected to be weakly sorted in the short term [71]. 3.14 LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: Affected by the expectation of oversupply, the night - session oil price has declined [73]. - **Propylene**: Supply and demand are tight, and spot transactions are rising [74]. 3.15 PVC - PVC is in a low - level shock state. The market has a high - production and high - inventory structure, and the export growth rate may slow down [83][85]. 3.16 Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: The night - session price has weakened significantly, and the price center continues to decline [87]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the decline of crude oil, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur in the foreign spot market fluctuates narrowly [87]. 3.17 Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The container shipping index (European line) is under pressure. Freight rates are showing a downward trend [89].

Core Viewpoint - Gold stocks experienced a significant decline today, with major companies reporting substantial drops in their share prices due to a sharp decrease in spot gold prices [1] Group 1: Company Performance - China Gold International (02099) fell by 8.15%, closing at 115 HKD [1] - Tongguan Gold (00340) decreased by 8.04%, ending at 2.06 HKD [1] - Lingbao Gold (03330) dropped by 6.95%, with a closing price of 15.4 HKD [1] - Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (600988) (06693) saw a decline of 6.11%, closing at 26.76 HKD [1] Group 2: Market Trends - On September 4, spot gold prices plummeted, briefly falling below the 3520 USD mark, with the latest price reported at 3531.89 USD/ounce, reflecting a daily drop of 0.77% [1] - COMEX gold futures were reported at 3588.3 USD/ounce, showing a decline of over 1% for the day [1] - Baocheng Futures noted an accelerated upward trend in precious metals since last Friday, driven by weakening performance in both domestic and international equity markets, which has increased market demand for safe-haven assets [1] Group 3: Economic Indicators - Current market focus is on the U.S. non-farm payroll data for August, which is expected to have a significant impact on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions in September [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - This week, Shanghai copper showed a weak performance, with little change in open interest and a decrease in amplitude. The domestic commodity market cooled, putting pressure on the non - ferrous sector. The speech of Fed Chair Powell at the Jackson Hole meeting on August 22 at 22:00 Beijing time is crucial. A dovish stance may be positive for copper prices [5]. - Shanghai aluminum reached the bottom and then rebounded this week, with open interest decreasing during price drops and increasing during price rises. The domestic commodity market cooled, but aluminum prices were stronger than the sector. On Thursday, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum decreased slightly, and the inventory of downstream aluminum rods continued to decline slowly. With a cooling macro - atmosphere and stronger industrial support, the futures price is expected to be strong [6]. - This week, nickel prices showed a trend of increasing open interest and falling prices, with the main futures price breaking below the 120,000 - yuan mark. The domestic commodity market cooled, and nickel prices were significantly weaker than the sector. High inventories of domestic nickel ore and nickel maintained a weak fundamental situation. With strong downward momentum, nickel prices are expected to run weakly in the short term [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: This week, the supply - demand weakness in Shandong continued, with stable spot premiums and discounts and low market activity. Downstream demand remained in the off - season, and zero - order purchasing willingness was weak. Holders increased sales to Jiangsu. With no inventory pressure, holders had no intention to cut prices significantly, resulting in a stalemate in spot premiums and discounts [9]. - **Aluminum**: On August 21, the total inventory of electrolytic aluminum in Shanghai and Guangdong bonded areas was 101,900 tons, a decrease of 2,900 tons from last week [10]. - **Nickel**: On August 22, the price of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel in the Shanghai market was 121,950 - 122,050 yuan/ton, down 290 yuan/ton; the price of Russian nickel was 119,750 - 119,950 yuan/ton, down 390 yuan/ton; the price of nickel beans was 121,850 - 121,950 yuan/ton, down 440 yuan/ton [11]. 2. Related Charts - **Copper**: Charts include copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][17][21]. - **Aluminum**: Charts include aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina inventory, and aluminum rod inventory [25][31][34]. - **Nickel**: Charts include nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [37][43][45].