Core Viewpoint - The U.S. labor market shows signs of weakness, with non-farm employment increasing by only 22,000 in August, significantly below the market expectation of 75,000, leading to increased speculation about potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3][11][17]. Economic Data - The U.S. ISM manufacturing index rose slightly to 48.7 in August from 48 in July, but remains below the neutral level of 50, indicating ongoing contraction [10]. - The Eurozone's CPI increased by 2.1% year-on-year in August, while core CPI slightly decreased to 2.3%, aligning with market expectations [10]. - U.S. job openings fell to 7.181 million in July, a ten-month low, and the trade deficit surged by 32.5% to $78.3 billion in July [10]. - The ADP employment report showed an increase of 54,000 jobs in August, below the expected 65,000 [10]. Federal Reserve Outlook - Federal Reserve Governor Waller suggested that the Fed should begin cutting rates this month and continue to do so in the coming months, depending on future economic data [3][6][17]. - Market expectations for a 50 basis point cut in September have intensified following the weak employment data, although there are concerns about the potential for a "recession trade" if economic slowdown expectations become too pronounced [4][18]. Market Reactions - U.S. equities, silver, and copper experienced volatility, reflecting uncertainty between easing expectations and economic slowdown narratives [5][19]. - Gold prices rose, and the U.S. dollar weakened, indicating clearer expectations regarding monetary policy direction [5][19]. International Central Bank Actions - The European Central Bank's President Lagarde stated that the 2% inflation target has been achieved, and necessary measures will continue to ensure price stability [6]. - The Bank of Japan's Deputy Governor indicated that further rate hikes may be appropriate given the improving economic and price conditions [7]. Trade and Policy Developments - The U.S. and Japan are finalizing a trade agreement that includes measures to alleviate tariff burdens, with Japan committing to increase U.S. rice imports by 75% [15][16]. - Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve have risen due to President Trump's attempts to influence its leadership [6][18].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the influence of political pressure on the Federal Reserve's decision-making, particularly in the context of potential changes in leadership and monetary policy under President Trump. Group 1: Federal Reserve Leadership - Trump has indicated three potential candidates for the Federal Reserve chairmanship: Hassett, Waller, and Walsh, all of whom have pro-business and accommodative monetary policy stances [3][4] - Current Fed Chair Powell's term lasts until 2026, but Trump has expressed dissatisfaction with him since 2018, particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic when he pressured for aggressive rate cuts [4][6] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Economic Implications - The U.S. is facing high interest rates, with projected interest costs exceeding $1 trillion in the 2024 fiscal year, accounting for about 13% of the federal budget [6] - Market expectations indicate that investors anticipate at least two rate cuts by the end of 2025, reflecting skepticism about the Fed's ability to resist political pressure [6] - Historical precedents show that political interference in Fed decisions can lead to long-term economic issues, such as the inflation crisis of the 1970s [8] Group 3: Independence of the Federal Reserve - The article raises concerns about the potential loss of the Fed's independence if it becomes a tool of the White House, which could undermine its credibility and the integrity of its monetary policy [8][12] - The current economic environment, with core inflation around 3%, suggests that hasty rate cuts could reignite inflation, negatively impacting the public [10][12]

Group 1 - The latest US non-farm employment data significantly underperformed expectations, leading the market to almost confirm that the Federal Reserve will initiate interest rate cuts in September [2][3] - Spot gold prices surged past $3600 per ounce, reaching a historical record and recording the largest weekly gain since mid-June, driven by expectations of monetary easing and safe-haven demand [2][3] - Analysts suggest that the weak labor market will likely overshadow inflation concerns, resulting in a bullish outlook for gold prices in the short to medium term, although a significant market misalignment is needed for gold to approach $4000 [2][3] Group 2 - The probability of maintaining interest rates in September has dropped to 0%, with an 88.3% chance of a 25 basis point cut and an 11.7% chance of a 50 basis point cut [3] - Lower borrowing costs are expected to diminish the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets, enhancing the appeal of gold as a non-yielding asset [3] - Gold prices have outperformed most commodities this year, having risen over 37% year-to-date, reflecting its unique allure amid monetary policy easing and macroeconomic uncertainties [3] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs predicts that if the independence of the Federal Reserve is compromised, it could lead to rising inflation, increasing long-term interest rates, declining stock prices, and a weakened status of the dollar as a reserve currency [4] - The bank forecasts gold prices to reach $3700 by the end of 2025 and $4000 by mid-2026, assuming strong demand from central banks continues [4] - In extreme scenarios, if just 1% of the funds from the US Treasury market were to flow into gold, prices could approach $5000 per ounce [4]

Group 1 - The market's expectation for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September remains unchanged despite potentially strong employment data, primarily due to underlying weakness signals in the labor market and the Fed's recent dovish stance [1][5] - The forecast for August indicates an increase of 90,000 non-farm jobs, surpassing July's 73,000 and the market's expectation of 75,000, supported by stable initial jobless claims and a decline in continuing claims [3] - The focus will be on the revision of July's data, as previous months' non-farm data have been adjusted downwards, raising the possibility of a significant downward revision for July, which could indicate a more persistent weakness in the labor market [3] Group 2 - Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole global central bank conference has set the tone for a potential policy shift, with a strong data requirement to prevent a rate cut in September, despite the official forecast suggesting rates will remain unchanged [5] - The unemployment rate will be a critical variable in assessing the rate cut threshold; a drop to 4.1% would lower the job growth requirement, while a rise to 4.3% would necessitate stronger job data to alleviate rate cut expectations [5] - The August employment market is expected to show mixed results, with public sector jobs anticipated to slightly recover after a loss of 10,000 in July, and improvements expected in the tourism and hospitality sectors [5][7] Group 3 - Certain sectors are still showing signs of weakness, particularly in professional and business services, which may continue to experience hiring challenges due to the accelerated application of AI technology and reduced labor market fluidity [7] - Manufacturing employment is expected to remain sluggish due to labor supply shocks and tariff uncertainties [7] - Wage growth is projected to remain stable, with an expected month-over-month increase of 0.3% in average hourly earnings and average weekly hours stable at 34.3 hours, indicating no overheating in the labor market [7]

Group 1 - Turkey's inflation rate showed a slower decline than expected, with the year-on-year increase dropping from 33.5% in July to 33% in August, which was higher than analysts' forecast of 32.6% [1] - The core inflation rate, excluding volatile items like food and energy, decreased to 33% from 34.7% in July, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [1] - Key contributors to the inflation included food, transportation, and rental services, with rental prices being influenced by past inflation levels, making them difficult to control through monetary policy [1] Group 2 - The Turkish central bank had previously lowered the benchmark interest rate by 300 basis points to 43% in July, marking the first rate cut in four months, amidst political turmoil [2] - The central bank has indicated a potential for further rate cuts, but the governor warned that the bank is not on "autopilot" and highlighted the importance of consumer and business inflation expectations [2] - Turkey's GDP grew by 4.8% year-on-year in the second quarter, driven by domestic demand, raising concerns about the adequacy of the central bank's rate cuts [2]

Core Viewpoint - The potential appointment of Stephen Milan, a close ally of Trump, to the Federal Reserve Board raises concerns about the independence of the Fed and its future monetary policy direction [1][3][10]. Group 1: Appointment Implications - Milan's background as a supporter of Trump's policies and his involvement in trade agreements suggests he may prioritize a more accommodative monetary policy [3][5]. - If Milan is confirmed before the September meeting, he could influence discussions on interest rates and asset balance sheet reduction towards a more dovish stance [5][10]. - The historical context shows that political pressure on the Fed can lead to adverse long-term economic consequences, as seen during Nixon's presidency [8][11]. Group 2: Economic Context - The current U.S. benchmark interest rate is above 5%, and inflation, while reduced from a peak of over 9%, remains around 3% [5][6]. - A significant reduction in interest rates could risk reigniting inflation, which may not align with Trump's electoral priorities [6][11]. - The U.S. fiscal deficit is projected to exceed $1.7 trillion for the 2024 fiscal year, raising concerns about the implications of a more lenient monetary policy [11]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The potential for Milan to push for quicker rate cuts could lead to a reevaluation of global market pricing, impacting the dollar's value and U.S. Treasury yields [10][11]. - The perception of the Fed as a tool of the White House could undermine confidence in U.S. debt as a safe-haven asset, leading to possible market sell-offs [13][15]. - The ongoing politicization of the Fed may erode its credibility and independence, which are crucial for maintaining market stability [13][15].

Group 1 - South Korea's consumer inflation has slowed to its lowest growth rate this year, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising by 1.7% year-on-year in August, down from 2.1% in July, and below economists' expectations of around 1.9% [1][4] - The core inflation rate, excluding food and energy, increased by 1.3% year-on-year in August, significantly lower than the expected 1.7% and marking the slowest growth in four years [1][4] - The decline in communication costs, particularly due to SK Telecom's reduction of mobile phone bills for over 20 million affected users, contributed to the inflation slowdown, offsetting rising food costs [4][5] Group 2 - Despite higher tariffs imposed by the U.S., South Korea's export data remains robust, with semiconductor exports increasing by 27.1% year-on-year in August, supported by strong demand in the semiconductor and automotive sectors [5][6] - The Bank of Korea is considering more policy stimulus as businesses prepare for potential impacts from U.S. tariffs, with the central bank maintaining the benchmark interest rate at 2.5% amid concerns over the real estate market and rising mortgage levels [5][6] - The recent inflation data is expected to provide the Bank of Korea with more room to implement accommodative monetary policy to support economic growth, especially if housing market pressures ease [5][6][7]

Group 1 - The bond market showed slight upward movement, with the 30-year government bond ETF rising by 0.05% and the 30-year government bond futures contract increasing by 0.09% [1] - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 182.7 billion yuan at a stable interest rate of 1.40%, indicating a stable monetary policy environment [1] - The yields on major government bonds, including the 10-year and 30-year bonds, experienced slight declines, reflecting a downward trend in interest rates [1] Group 2 - The bond market faced headwinds in August, with the 10-year government bond yield increasing by 7.35 basis points, despite the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 7.97% [2] - Analysts suggest that the recent synchronized rise in stocks and bonds may be attributed to increased support from the central bank and a loosening of the funding environment at the end of the month [2] - The Pengyang 30-year government bond ETF is highlighted as the first ETF tracking the 30-year government bond index, offering T+0 trading attributes and serving as a flexible cash management tool for investors [2]

Group 1 - Central Huijin Investment and its subsidiaries hold a total of 1.28 trillion yuan in stock ETFs as of June 30, 2025, representing an increase of nearly 23% compared to the end of last year [2][4] - The number of stock ETFs held by Central Huijin has increased to 1.58 times that of the end of last year, with multiple broad-based ETFs receiving over 1 billion shares in additional purchases [2][4] Group 2 - In the first half of 2025, the total operating revenue of listed companies in the market reached 35.01 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.16% [4] - The net profit for the first half of the year was 3.00 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.54%, with an increase of 4.76 percentage points compared to the previous year's overall growth rate [4] Group 3 - BYD reported a net profit of 15.51 billion yuan for the first half of the year, marking a year-on-year increase of 13.79% [9] - Huawei announced a revenue of 427 billion yuan for the first half of the year, a year-on-year growth of 3.94%, while net profit decreased by 32% to 37.1 billion yuan [10] - Tianshan Lithium Industry reported a net profit of 84.41 million yuan for the first half of the year, achieving a turnaround from losses [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights significant developments in the investment landscape, particularly focusing on the actions of central financial institutions and key companies in various sectors, including semiconductor, electric vehicles, and financial markets. Group 1: Central Financial Institutions - As of the end of June, the Central Huijin Investment Co. and its subsidiaries held stock ETFs worth 1.28 trillion yuan, an increase of nearly 23% compared to the end of last year [2][3] - The number of stock ETFs held by Central Huijin at the end of June is 1.58 times that of the end of last year, with several broad-based ETFs receiving over 10 billion shares in increases [3] Group 2: Semiconductor Industry - On August 30, the Ministry of Commerce spokesperson commented on the U.S. revoking the "validated end-user" authorization for three semiconductor companies in China, stating that this action would negatively impact the global semiconductor supply chain [5] Group 3: Company Earnings and Announcements - In the first half of 2025, the total revenue of listed companies reached 35.01 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.16%, with a second-quarter revenue of 18.11 trillion yuan, up 0.43% year-on-year and 7.15% quarter-on-quarter [5] - Net profit for the first half of the year was 3.00 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.54%, with an acceleration of 4.76 percentage points compared to the previous year's full-year growth [5] - BYD reported a net profit of 15.51 billion yuan for the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 13.79% [12] - Huawei announced a revenue of 427 billion yuan for the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 3.94%, while net profit decreased by 32% to 37.1 billion yuan [13] - Guizhou Moutai's controlling shareholder plans to increase its stake in the company by 3 to 3.3 billion yuan [11] Group 4: Regulatory and Market Developments - The new national standard for electric bicycles will be implemented, allowing a maximum weight of 55 kg for lithium battery models and increasing the weight limit for lead-acid battery models from 55 kg to 63 kg [5] - WeChat's "Coral Security" announced measures against accounts providing illegal stock recommendation services, indicating a crackdown on misleading financial information [6]