Core Viewpoint - The threat of a 50% tariff on all goods from Brazil by Trump has caused significant turmoil in the Brazilian financial markets, leading to declines in both currency and stock indices [1] Market Reaction - The Brazilian real fell by 0.8% against the US dollar, continuing its previous day's decline [1] - Stock index futures dropped by 1.5% [1] - Interest rate swap contracts experienced a widespread decline [1] - In the New York market, the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF saw a pre-market drop of 3.2% [1] Trade Policy Implications - Brazil has re-entered Trump's trade policy focus after months of relative calm, leading to expectations of increased market volatility in the short term [1] - The proposed tariff is significantly higher than the previously anticipated 10% base rate [1] - Uncertainty remains regarding how effective negotiations between the two countries can be conducted [1] Analyst Insights - Analyst Ilan Albertman from Ativa noted that this tariff threat adds new risk factors to Brazilian local assets, potentially leading to greater volatility [1] - Companies with significant exposure to the US market may need to reassess their cash flows and valuations in light of this development [1]

美股三大股指期货维持在平盘附近，美国前副总统迈克·彭斯批评唐纳德·特朗普的关税政策，称这与他 第一任期内的贸易政策截然不同，将损害美国消费者和企业。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent FOMC meeting minutes reveal significant internal divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding future interest rate decisions, primarily influenced by differing opinions on the impact of tariffs on inflation [1][3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Interest Rate Decisions - A majority of officials lean towards a potential interest rate cut later this year, but there is a notable faction that believes current inflation levels are still far from the 2% target, which does not justify an immediate rate cut [3]. - The FOMC has maintained the interest rate unchanged for the fourth consecutive meeting, with 10 out of 19 officials predicting two rate cuts within the year, while 7 believe there will be no cuts until 2025 [3]. Economic Data and Risks - Current economic data has not provided sufficient signals for action, with ongoing risks related to inflation and a weak labor market [5]. - There is a lack of consensus on the impact of tariffs, with opinions ranging from minimal effects to concerns about long-term implications [5]. Market Expectations - Market expectations indicate a likelihood of rate cuts in September and December, as investors await key economic indicators such as CPI and unemployment rates [7]. - The Federal Reserve is also considering enhancing policy communication strategies to clarify its economic forecasts and analyses [7]. Overall Sentiment - The prevailing sentiment among Federal Reserve officials is one of caution, emphasizing patience over aggressive action in response to economic data [8].

Core Viewpoint - Gold has once again fallen below the $3,300 threshold, with market attention shifting towards the details of trade policies and the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes [1] Group 1 - The current price of gold is under pressure, indicating potential volatility in the market [1] - Market participants are closely monitoring upcoming trade policy details, which could impact gold prices [1] - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes are anticipated to provide insights that may influence investor sentiment towards gold [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US June non - farm payrolls increased by 147,000, higher than market expectations, cooling the expectation of an interest rate cut this year. The US "Big and Beautiful" Act restricts the 45Z tax credit to North - American sourced raw materials, and the EPA's proposed policy boosts the use of vegetable oil in biodiesel, expanding US soybean oil demand. Brazil raised the biodiesel blending ratio from 14% to 15% in June 2025. Indonesia's B40 policy is partially completed, and it plans to implement the B50 plan in early 2026. In the fourth quarter, entering the seasonal off - peak, supply - demand is expected to tighten [3][42]. - India's palm oil imports in June reached 953,000 tons, a 61% month - on - month increase. China's cumulative palm oil imports from January to May were 730,000 tons, far below the five - year average of 1.17 million tons. With the arrival of ships from May - June, inventory increased, but there are fewer purchases after July. US soybean crop ratings are good, domestic soybean arrivals are increasing, soybean oil supply is sufficient, and rapeseed oil is at a high level and in a slow destocking phase [3][42]. - The US June non - farm data exceeded expectations, cooling the interest rate cut expectation. Trade policy uncertainty may exacerbate market volatility. Although Israel and Iran signed a cease - fire agreement, geopolitical risks still exist and may impact oil prices. In the third quarter, during the production - increasing season, the supply - demand double - increase pattern may limit the upside, with overall oscillatory operation. In the fourth quarter, entering the seasonal off - peak, combined with the expectation of Indonesia's B50 policy and the implementation of biodiesel support policies in relevant countries, the price center may rise [3][43]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Review of the Oils and Fats Market - In the first half of 2025, palm oil prices shifted from a decline to an oscillatory range, with the overall price center moving down. From January to February, prices first declined due to the non - implementation of Indonesia's B40 policy and high - price suppression of demand, then rose due to post - Spring Festival restocking and India's Ramadan备货 demand. In March, prices oscillated, influenced by both negative and positive factors. In April, US tariff policies and concerns about the economy, along with the entry of the production - increasing season, dragged down prices. From May to June, there was no obvious driving factor, and the market fluctuated. From mid - June, prices rose due to geopolitical conflicts and the US biodiesel policy, then retreated and entered an oscillatory phase [8][9]. 3.2. Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1. MPOB Report - In May 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.77 million tons, a 5.05% month - on - month increase; imports were 69,000 tons; exports were 1.3872 million tons, a 25.62% month - on - month increase; and the ending inventory was 1.99 million tons, a 6.65% month - on - month increase. Reuters' survey predicted that in June 2025, Malaysia's palm oil inventory would be 1.99 million tons, a 0.24% decrease from May; production would be 1.7 million tons, a 4.04% decrease; and exports would be 1.45 million tons, a 4.16% increase [14]. 3.2.2. Malaysian Palm Oil Production and Exports - In June 2025, according to SPPOMA, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 0.65%. MPOA estimated a 4.69% decrease in production from June 1 - 30. UOB predicted a 3% - 7% decrease in production by the end of June. Different institutions' data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports in June increased compared to May [17][18]. 3.2.3. Indonesia's Situation - In April 2025, Indonesia's palm oil production was 4.9 million tons, a slight month - on - month increase. Exports were 1.78 million tons, a month - on - month decrease. Domestic consumption was 2.1 million tons, a month - on - month decrease. The inventory was 3.05 million tons [23]. 3.2.4. India's Vegetable Oil Imports - In May 2025, India's vegetable oil imports were 1.18 million tons, a month - on - month increase. Palm oil imports were 590,000 tons, a month - on - month increase. In June, palm oil imports reached 953,000 tons, a 61% month - on - month increase [26][28]. 3.2.5. China's Oils and Fats Imports - From January to May 2025, China's cumulative palm oil imports were 730,000 tons, far below the five - year average. Cumulative rapeseed oil imports were 1.025 million tons, and cumulative sunflower oil imports were 228,000 tons. The cumulative imports of the three major oils were 1.983 million tons [35][37]. 3.2.6. Domestic Oils and Fats Inventory - As of the week of June 27, 2025, the inventory of the three major oils in key national regions was 2.22 million tons, an increase from the previous week and the same period last year. Soybean oil inventory was 955,200 tons, palm oil inventory was 537,400 tons, and rapeseed oil inventory was 727,400 tons [39]. 3.3. Summary and Outlook for the Future - The report reiterates the factors mentioned in the core viewpoints, including the US economic situation, biodiesel policies in different countries, production and inventory changes in Malaysia and Indonesia, and import situations in India and China. It points out that in the third quarter, the market may oscillate, and in the fourth quarter, the price center may rise [42][43].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating [1][2][3] Core Views - The finished products are expected to run in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center moving downward and running weakly [1][2] - The aluminum price is expected to run in a high - level range in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream start - up [3] Summary by Related Contents Finished Products - Yunguizhou short - process construction steel enterprises' Spring Festival shutdown and maintenance time is mostly in mid - to late January, with a production resumption around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total construction steel output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills have or will shut down, with a daily production impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [1][2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2] - Finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, reaching a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price center continues to move down. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing weak price support [2] Aluminum - Macroscopically, Trump escalated trade tensions on Monday, warning 14 countries of higher tariffs, but the effective date was postponed to August 1. The market is waiting for the Fed's latest policy meeting minutes [1] - Domestically, as of last Thursday, the total built - in production capacity of metallurgical - grade alumina was 110.82 million tons/year, the operating total capacity was 88.63 million tons/year, and the weekly start - up rate decreased by 0.31 percentage points to 79.97%. As of the end of June, the in - plant inventory of alumina enterprises increased by 81,000 tons [2] - Affected by factors such as the high - temperature off - season, high aluminum prices, insufficient profit margins, and weak downstream demand, the start - up rate of the aluminum processing industry decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 58.7% last week [2] - In the aluminum plate and strip field, enterprises actively reduced production due to insufficient orders and high inventory. In the aluminum cable field, July orders are pessimistic, but the delivery expectation of State Grid orders in the second half of the year is good. Aluminum profile enterprises have weak new orders and are under pressure due to intense processing fee competition [2] - On July 7, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 478,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons from last Thursday and 10,000 tons from last Monday. It is expected that the inventory of domestic aluminum ingots will increase steadily in early July [2] - Currently, the off - season inventory accumulation has initially appeared, the impact of the rainy season in Guinea is reflected in the ore price, but the off - season pressure on the demand side limits the upward space. Macro - risk pricing increases, and attention should be paid to domestic policy promotion [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in gold prices is attributed to optimistic sentiments regarding trade agreements between the U.S. and its partners, alongside a strengthening dollar and rising U.S. Treasury yields, which collectively exerted downward pressure on gold prices [2][4]. Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - On July 8, spot gold prices fell over 1%, briefly dropping below the $3,300 per ounce mark, marking a new low in over a week [1][2]. - The decline in gold prices is influenced by multiple factors, including optimistic trade negotiations, a stronger dollar, and rising U.S. Treasury yields, as well as the complexities introduced by Trump's tariff policies [2][4]. - In June, the People's Bank of China continued to increase its gold reserves for the eighth consecutive month, reflecting China's strategic emphasis on gold amid global monetary uncertainties [4]. Group 2: Future Outlook for Gold Prices - Analysts predict that gold prices will continue to rise in the second half of the year, with expectations for prices to reach $3,700 per ounce in Q3 and potentially $4,000 by year-end [9]. - The first half of 2025 saw gold prices increase by 25%, setting new records and significantly outperforming the previous year's highs, driven by inflation risks and geopolitical tensions [8][9]. - The market consensus remains bullish on gold, with analysts emphasizing the importance of aligning with market trends rather than attempting to counter them [9].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the mixed signals in U.S. trade policy, particularly regarding tariff adjustments for various countries, indicating a dual strategy of pressure and negotiation [2] - The U.S. has announced a slight increase in tariffs for Japan and Malaysia from 24% to 25%, while some countries like Kazakhstan and Tunisia will see a decrease, and others like South Korea and Indonesia will maintain their current rates [2] - The market reaction to the trade warnings has been cautiously optimistic, especially with the upcoming negotiations between the U.S. and the EU, as well as the U.S. and India, suggesting potential for lower tariff agreements [2] Group 2 - London silver prices are currently under pressure, with a recent price of $36.59 per ounce, reflecting a decline of 0.40% [1] - The analysis indicates that silver prices are expected to continue a downward trend, with key support levels at $36.40 and $36.15, and resistance levels at $36.80 and $37.00 [3] - The fluctuations in precious metal prices are being influenced by tariff news and broader market conditions [3]

Core Insights - U.S. corn futures have rebounded, while soybean and wheat futures have seen slight recoveries, indicating a mixed performance in the agricultural futures market [1] - The uncertainty surrounding agricultural futures is heightened by the escalation of Trump's trade policies, which may impact market dynamics [1] - An upcoming U.S. agricultural report is expected to provide insights into crop yield forecasts, which could significantly influence futures market trends [1] Group 1 - U.S. corn futures are experiencing a rebound [1] - Soybean and wheat futures have shown slight recoveries [1] - Trump's trade policies are adding uncertainty to the agricultural futures market [1] Group 2 - The upcoming U.S. agricultural report will likely affect crop yield expectations [1] - Crop yield forecasts are crucial for understanding potential impacts on the futures market [1]

期货热点追踪 特朗普一声令下，COMEX铜价昨日大幅上涨，但LME铜市承压背离，全球最大铜生产国如何应对美 国"贸易政策突袭"？ 相关链接 ...