Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Court of Appeals ruled that most of the global tariff policies implemented by President Trump are illegal, stating that the law he invoked does not grant him the authority to impose these tariffs [2][3]. Group 1: Court Ruling - The U.S. Court of Appeals maintained a previous lower court ruling with a 7-4 vote, indicating that the emergency law cited by Trump does not authorize the imposition of most tariffs [2]. - The court's decision is based on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, which allows the president to take certain economic measures in emergencies but does not permit comprehensive actions like imposing tariffs [2][3]. - The ruling will not take effect until October 14, allowing the Trump administration to appeal to the Supreme Court [2]. Group 2: Trump's Response - Following the ruling, Trump asserted on social media that "all tariffs remain in effect" and announced plans to appeal to the Supreme Court [3]. - Trump criticized the appellate court's decision as "wrong" and warned that removing tariffs would lead to a "total disaster" for the U.S. [3].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Court of Appeals ruled that most of the global tariff policies implemented by President Trump are illegal, stating that the law he invoked did not grant him the authority to impose these tariffs [2][5]. Group 1: Court Ruling - The U.S. Court of Appeals maintained a previous lower court ruling with a 7-4 vote, indicating that the emergency law cited by Trump does not authorize the imposition of most tariffs [5]. - The court's decision is set to take effect before October 14, allowing the Trump administration to appeal to the Supreme Court [6]. - The ruling does not affect tariffs imposed under other regulations, such as those on steel and aluminum [6]. Group 2: Trump's Response - Trump asserted on social media that "all tariffs remain in effect" and announced plans to appeal to the Supreme Court [3][9]. - He criticized the appellate court's ruling as "wrong" and warned that removing tariffs would lead to a "total disaster" for the U.S. [9]. - Trump's administration had previously invoked the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose tariffs without congressional approval, which has been challenged in court [8].

Group 1 - The U.S. Court of Appeals ruled that most of the global tariff policies implemented by President Trump are illegal, stating that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not grant the president the authority to impose these tariffs [1][2][3] - The court's decision was made with a 7-4 vote, affirming a previous lower court ruling that Trump's invocation of the emergency law exceeded his powers [2][3] - The ruling allows the tariffs to remain in effect until October 14, giving the Trump administration time to appeal to the Supreme Court [1][3] Group 2 - The court's decision is seen as a significant blow to Trump's aggressive trade policies, which were enacted without congressional approval through executive orders [3] - Trump criticized the ruling on social media, asserting that all tariffs remain effective and warning that their removal would lead to a "total disaster" for the U.S. [1][3]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Court of Appeals ruled that President Trump's authority to impose tariffs on multiple countries was not granted by the law he cited, effectively deeming the tariffs illegal [1][2][3]. Group 1: Court Ruling Details - The Court of Appeals upheld a previous lower court ruling with a 7-4 vote, stating that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not authorize the President to impose most tariffs without Congressional approval [2][3]. - The IEEPA allows the President to take certain economic measures in emergencies but does not permit comprehensive actions like imposing tariffs [3][4]. - The ruling will not take effect until October 14, allowing the Trump administration to appeal to the Supreme Court [5]. Group 2: Implications for Trade Policy - The ruling is seen as a significant blow to Trump's aggressive trade policies, with potential implications for global trade valued in trillions of dollars [5][6]. - If the Supreme Court ultimately rules against Trump, it could undermine his touted trade agreements and lead to demands for refunds of tariffs already paid [6]. - Trump's administration argues that the tariffs are essential for national and economic security, with officials expressing concerns about the potential diplomatic repercussions of the ruling [8]. Group 3: Future Developments - The Trump administration has two options: appeal directly to the Supreme Court or allow the International Trade Court to reassess the case [6]. - Trump's criticism of the ruling highlights his belief that removing tariffs would be disastrous for the U.S. economy [6][8]. - The administration's chief lawyer warned that a ruling against the President could lead to "catastrophic consequences," referencing existing trade agreements with various countries [7][8].

另据《卫报》报道，民主党籍加州州长纽森也对美国上诉法院裁定特朗普对多国征收关税违法的举动迅 速作出反应。他于当地时间30日在社交平台X上发文批评特朗普。 当地时间8月29日，美国联邦巡回上诉法院以7比4的投票结果维持了之前下级法院的裁决，认为特朗普 援引的紧急法案并未授权他征收大部分关税。根据裁决书，该裁决10月14日之前不会生效，以便特朗普 政府向美国最高法院提出上诉。美国当地媒体认为，美国上诉法院的裁决对特朗普政府激进的贸易政策 是沉重打击。 特朗普政府今年1月上台后援引美国《国际紧急经济权力法》，以不经过国会批准、直接颁布行政令的 方式出台一系列加征关税措施。美国国际贸易法院5月裁定特朗普政府此举违法。随后，特朗普政府向 联邦巡回上诉法院提起上诉。 责任编辑：郝欣煜 外媒 "所有关税仍然有效！"特朗普在帖文开头指责说，"充满党派偏见的上诉法院"错了。他称，如果关税被 取消，对美国来说"将是一场彻底的灾难"，随后又对其关税政策进行了一番吹捧。 特朗普最后表示，他将"在美国最高法院的帮助下"对相关裁决进行反击。 【环球网报道 记者 索炎琦】美国联邦巡回上诉法院29日裁定，美国总统特朗普批准对多国征收关税时 ...

当地时间8月29日，美国联邦巡回上诉法院以7比4的投票结果维持了之前下级法院的裁决，认为特朗普援引的紧急法案并未授权他征收大部分关税。根据裁 决书，该裁决10月14日之前不会生效，以便特朗普政府向美国最高法院提出上诉。美国当地媒体认为，美国上诉法院的裁决对特朗普政府激进的贸易政策是 沉重打击。 【环球网报道 记者 索炎琦】美国联邦巡回上诉法院29日裁定，美国总统特朗普批准对多国征收关税时援引的法律，实际上并没有赋予其征收这些税款的权 力。据英国《卫报》、法新社等媒体报道，特朗普当地时间周五（29日）晚些时候在其社交平台上发文，对该裁决作出"愤怒"回应。 特朗普最后表示，他将"在美国最高法院的帮助下"对相关裁决进行反击。 另据《卫报》报道，民主党籍加州州长纽森也对美国上诉法院裁定特朗普对多国征收关税违法的举动迅速作出反应。他于当地时间30日在社交平台X上发文 称，"特朗普是美国最大的失败者"。 "所有关税仍然有效！"特朗普在帖文开头指责说，"充满党派偏见的上诉法院"错了。他称，如果关税被取消，对美国来说"将是一场彻底的灾难"，随后又对 其关税政策进行了一番吹捧。 特朗普政府今年1月上台后援引美国《国际紧急经济权 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The report focuses on the current global trade situation where in 2025, China's imports of soybeans from the US and rapeseed from Canada have dropped significantly. It analyzes the supply - demand patterns and challenges in the global and domestic markets of soybeans and rapeseed, and uses scenario assumptions to predict future market trends [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 CBOT Soybean's Operating Cycle - The CBOT soybean has a strong cyclicality. From 2001 to the present, there is a complete cycle of rise, fall, and bottom operation about every 5 years. The cycle is related to the profit - loss cycle of US soybean growers and the La Nina - El Nino cycle. The bottom of the cycle usually has at least one year of grinding time, and the bottom - shock range since 2006 has generally been between 800 - 1000 cents per bushel, which is also the psychological bottom price for investors. Currently, the downward space for US soybeans is limited, and there may be a new upward trend in 0 - 12 months [5]. - From 2001 - 2015, the three cycles had a similar rhythm, with a 3 - year upward cycle and a 2 - year downward cycle. In the past 10 years, due to Sino - US trade frictions and the changing US foreign trade policy, the upward cycle of US soybeans ended earlier, and the downward cycle was significantly extended [7]. 3.2 Impact of Trade Policy on US Soybeans and Canadian Rapeseed - As of August 14, 2025, the new - crop US soybeans for the 2025/26 season had only sold 585 tons, far lower than last year's 754 tons and the 5 - year average of 1427 tons. The USDA has lowered the export forecast for 2025/26 to 4640 tons. If China restarts US soybean procurement and reaches a trade agreement, US soybean exports may increase, and the CBOT soybean price is expected to rise. Otherwise, the price may face pressure [8][11]. - In August 2025, China imposed a 75.8% anti - dumping margin on Canadian rapeseed. Since China's dependence on Canadian rapeseed imports exceeds 95%, there will be a gap of about 250 tons per year. China may increase imports from Australia, but Australian rapeseed production is unstable. This shortage will raise the bottom price of rapeseed meal [12]. 3.3 How Supply Contradictions Affect the Domestic Meal Market - As of the end of August 2025, there is still a large gap in the November, December, and January 2026 shipping schedules. Different scenarios are considered: - If an agreement is reached between China and the US this year, domestic oil mills may increase US soybean procurement, driving the M1 - 5 spread to weaken. US soybeans are expected to rise by 5% - 10%, while domestic soybean meal may rise passively or remain flat [16]. - If an agreement is not reached but China purchases some US soybean contracts during the negotiation, the short - term market will fluctuate greatly. The domestic supply shortage cannot be fully alleviated, and soybean meal will maintain a volatile upward pattern [16]. - If there is no agreement, Brazilian soybeans can meet China's demand in the short term, but as Brazilian inventory declines, the premium will rise. The domestic M2601 contract may follow the upward trend and could reach the 3250 - 3500 range [16]. - The absolute price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is usually between 400 - 800 yuan/ton. When the price difference is ≤ 400 yuan/ton, the substitution of soybean meal for rapeseed meal is significant; when it is ≥ 800 yuan/ton, the substitution of rapeseed meal for soybean meal may occur. Currently, the price difference is around 550 yuan/ton, and the substitution sensitivity is increasing. The domestic rapeseed meal supply is tight in the long - term and loose in the short - term, and the price difference may strengthen after the peak season of aquaculture [17][19].

Group 1 - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) warns that global financing is shifting from regulated banks to private markets, complicating the ability of authorities to monitor and address potential financial stability risks [1] - The RBA's responsibilities include maintaining financial stability and chairing the Financial Regulatory Agency Committee, which aims to identify and address vulnerabilities [1] - The Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) has outlined key areas of focus, including insider trading and systemic compliance failures among large financial institutions [1] Group 2 - There is a growing allocation of funds, particularly from pension funds, towards private equity, credit, and physical assets, reshaping capital formation in Australia [1] - Regulatory concerns are particularly heightened regarding risks in the real estate sector, where private credit companies have expanded significantly [1] - The ASIC commissioner highlighted that unchecked private credit involvement in real estate could lead to systemic shocks [1] Group 3 - The RBA emphasizes that trade policy settings and geopolitical tensions may impact global and domestic growth and inflation outcomes [2] - These factors create uncertainty that could dampen business and consumer sentiment, prompting adjustments in trade patterns and supply chains [2] - In extreme cases, these factors may pose risks to financial stability [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various asset classes including macro - finance, stocks, precious metals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, energy chemicals, and agricultural products. It points out that short - term macro upward drivers are marginally strengthening, with focus on domestic incremental stimulus policies, loose expectations, Sino - US trade negotiation progress, and implementation of domestic incremental policies. Different asset classes are expected to have different short - term trends, mainly presenting震荡 (oscillation) or震荡偏强 (oscillation with a slightly upward trend) patterns [2][3]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - Overseas: The second - quarter GDP had a year - on - year growth rate of 3.3%, higher than the expected 3.1%. After the New York Fed President Williams hinted at a possible rate cut, market expectations for a Fed rate cut next month increased, the US dollar index was weak, and global risk appetite increased. - Domestic: China's economic data in July slowed down and was below expectations. The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption in September. With the extension of the Sino - US tariff truce for 90 days and increased US easing expectations, short - term external risks decreased, and domestic risk appetite increased. - Asset Performance: Stocks are expected to be short - term oscillatory and slightly stronger, with short - term cautious long positions; treasury bonds are expected to be high - level oscillatory in the short term, with cautious observation; commodities: black metals, non - ferrous metals, and energy chemicals are short - term oscillatory, with cautious observation; precious metals are high - level and slightly stronger oscillatory in the short term, with cautious long positions [2]. Stocks - The domestic stock market fell significantly due to the drag of sectors such as clothing and home textiles, biomedicine, and liquor. - The short - term macro upward driver is marginally strengthening, with focus on Sino - US trade negotiation progress and implementation of domestic incremental policies. Short - term cautious observation is recommended [3]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices rose on Thursday. The Fed's independence concerns and the weakening US dollar supported the upward movement of precious metals. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US decreased, and the second - quarter GDP was stronger than expected. The market is focused on the PCE data to be released on Friday. Gold has strong short - term support, but be wary of the Fed's changing attitude [3][4]. Black Metals Steel - Steel futures and spot prices rebounded slightly on Thursday, and trading volume increased slightly. The expectation of steel production cuts in the next two years has increased. - The fundamentals remain weak, with an increase in the inventory of five major steel products and a decline in the apparent consumption of some products. Supply is mixed, with an increase in rebar production and a slight decrease in hot - rolled coil production. There is a possibility of further production restrictions in the north in early September, and the steel market may continue to rebound [5]. Iron Ore - Iron ore futures and spot prices rebounded significantly on Thursday. Steel mills' profits are high, but due to production restrictions in the north in the next week, steel mills' procurement is cautious. - Global iron ore shipments and arrivals decreased this week. Port inventories decreased slightly on Monday. Iron ore prices are expected to be range - bound in the short term [5]. Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - Silicon iron prices were flat, and silicon manganese prices rebounded slightly on Thursday. The demand for ferroalloys is okay as the production of five major steel products continues to increase. - The production of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia is stable, with some minor production fluctuations. There are new production capacity plans in the future, and the daily output may be affected by 500 - 800 tons. The prices of ferroalloys are expected to be range - bound in the short term [6][7]. Soda Ash - The soda ash main contract oscillated on Thursday. Supply increased due to the return of previous maintenance, and there is supply pressure with new capacity coming online. - Demand remained stable week - on - week, but overall demand support is weak. Profits decreased week - on - week. Soda ash is expected to be range - bound in the short term [7]. Glass - The glass main contract oscillated on Thursday. Supply remained stable, and demand is difficult to improve significantly. - Profits decreased as glass prices fell. With the support of real - estate news, glass is expected to be range - bound in the short term [7]. Non - Ferrous Metals and New Energy Copper - Due to concerns about US tariffs and the expected tightening of the Japanese central bank's monetary policy, and the weakening of domestic demand, the strong copper price is difficult to sustain [9]. Aluminum - Aluminum prices fell slightly on Thursday, and inventories continued to increase. The medium - term upward space for aluminum prices is limited, and it is expected to be oscillatory in the short term [9]. Aluminum Alloy - The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, the cost of recycled aluminum plants is rising, and demand is weak. The price is expected to be oscillatory and slightly stronger in the short term, but the upward space is limited [9]. Tin - The supply - side开工率 (operating rate) increased, and the mine supply is expected to be loose. The demand side is weak, but the price decline has stimulated downstream replenishment. Tin prices are expected to be oscillatory in the short term, with support from smelter maintenance and peak - season expectations, but restricted by high tariffs,复产 expectations (restoration of production expectations), and weak demand [10]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate main contract fell on Thursday. After the previous sentiment subsided, it is expected to be widely oscillatory, with short - term short positions and long - term long positions [11]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon main contract fell on Thursday. With the oscillation of black metals and polysilicon, industrial silicon is expected to be weakly oscillatory [11]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon main contract fell on Thursday. The production in August is approaching 130,000 tons, and the number of warehouse receipts is increasing. It is facing a game between strong expectations and weak reality. It is recommended to short on rebounds [12]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The possibility of more Russian oil supply entering the market in the short term has decreased, and oil prices rose slightly on Thursday. However, the market has limited risk premium digestion, and short - term oil prices are expected to be weakly oscillatory [14]. Asphalt - Due to limited oil price changes, the asphalt main price remained almost unchanged. The spot market has slightly improved, but inventory removal is limited. Asphalt is expected to be weakly oscillatory in the short term [14]. PX - After the price increase due to Zhejiang Petrochemical's maintenance, PX supply is tight, and it is expected to be oscillatory in the short term, waiting for changes in PTA devices [14]. PTA - The PTA price declined, but there is some support from domestic and South Korean petrochemical capacity adjustments and the temporary shutdown of the Huizhou device. It is expected to be oscillatory in the short term, with attention to the downstream recovery space [15]. Ethylene Glycol - Ethylene glycol prices continued to decline, and port inventories decreased slightly. It is expected to be narrowly oscillatory in the short term, with support from downstream start - up recovery, but supply pressure is still large [16]. Short - Fiber - Short - fiber prices fell slightly due to sector resonance. Terminal orders have increased seasonally, and it is recommended to short on highs in the medium term [16]. Methanol - The restart of inland devices and concentrated arrivals have pressured prices, but there is some support from the reflux window and the planned restart of MTO devices. Methanol is expected to be oscillatory [16]. PP - The supply - side pressure is increasing, and demand is showing signs of recovery. The 09 contract is expected to be weakly oscillatory, and attention should be paid to the peak - season inventory situation of the 01 contract [16]. LLDPE - The supply - side pressure remains, and demand is showing a turning point. The 09 contract is expected to be weakly oscillatory, and attention should be paid to demand and inventory situation of the 01 contract [17]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - The CBOT soybean price was supported by the continuous improvement of US new - season soybean exports. The export sales of the current market year decreased, while the next - year exports increased significantly. Pakistan is expected to sign a purchase agreement [19]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - The pressure of continuous inventory accumulation of domestic oil mills' soybeans and soybean meal has eased, but the near - month/spot risk has not subsided. Rapeseed meal has an upward fluctuation basis due to low inventory and few long - term purchases [19]. Oils - Rapeseed oil port inventories are decreasing, and the supply of soybean oil is expected to strengthen. Palm oil is in the production - increasing cycle, and the market is expected to be oscillatory [20]. Corn - The national corn price is running weakly, but the futures price has entered a relatively low - valuation range, and the possibility of breaking through last year's range is small [20]. Hogs - Group farms continued to reduce weight in August, and the pig price did not rebound as expected at the end of August. The theoretical slaughter volume will increase in September, but there is no need to be overly pessimistic. Some local areas have started purchasing and storage [20][21].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Short - term decline**: For soybean meal and rapeseed meal, soybean meal has a short - term decline due to factors like inventory build - up and improved crop conditions of US soybeans, while rapeseed meal is affected by high inventory, high warehouse receipts, and increased production estimates of Canadian rapeseed [2][6]. - **Short - term bullish**: Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are short - term bullish. Palm oil benefits from biodiesel policies and export data; soybean oil is influenced by the US EPA's renewable fuel exemption decisions; and rapeseed oil has cost support from manufacturers' price - holding and import prices [2]. - **Cautious bullish**: Cotton, jujube, and live pigs are cautiously bullish. Cotton has a supply - tight situation before new cotton listing and improving demand; jujube is expected to have a reduced production but with inventory pressure; live pigs face short - term selling pressure but long - term potential from capacity reduction [2]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **Market data**: The main contract's closing price is 3045 yuan/ton, down 1.17%. The national average spot price is 3073.14 yuan/ton, down 0.54%. The national average soybean crushing profit is - 92.7098 yuan/ton, down 74.20 yuan/ton [4]. - **Inventory situation**: As of August 22, 2025, the national port soybean inventory is 889.8 million tons, down 2.80 million tons from last week. The soybean meal inventory is 105.33 million tons, up 3.86 million tons from last week [5]. - **Market view**: It is in a short - term decline adjustment, with limited downward space due to Sino - US trade costs. Short - term short - selling below 3000 yuan needs caution [2][6]. Rapeseed Meal - **Market data**: The main contract's closing price is 2501 yuan/ton, down 0.99%. The national average spot price is 2628.95 yuan/ton, down 1.42%. The national average rapeseed spot crushing profit is - 329.1675 yuan/ton, down 50.94 yuan/ton [7]. - **Inventory situation**: As of August 22, the total rapeseed meal inventory in major regions is 61.38 million tons, down 2.14 million tons from last week [8]. - **Market view**: It is in a short - term adjustment. Caution is needed when going long, and short - term participation should wait for short - term stabilization. Attention should be paid to Sino - Australian relations and Canada's response to China's anti - dumping results [2][8]. Palm Oil - **Market data**: The main contract's closing price is 9500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The national average price is 9565 yuan/ton, up 0.31%. The national daily trading volume is 500 units, down 44.32%. The commercial inventory is 58.21 million tons, down 3.52 million tons from last week [9]. - **Export data**: Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 25 are expected to be 933437 tons, up 36.41% from the same period last month [10]. - **Market view**: It is in a high - level consolidation. Bullish operations should be cautious this week, but the long - term strategy is to go long on dips. Attention should be paid to the Russia - Ukraine negotiation's impact on crude oil prices and Malaysia's palm oil inventory estimate this month [2][10]. Cotton - **Market data**: The main contract CF2601 closes at 14075 yuan/ton, down 0.18%. The domestic spot price is 15335 yuan/ton, up 0.03%. The spinning mill's operating rate is 65.8%, up 0.3%, and the weaving factory's operating rate is 37.2%, up 0.2% [11]. - **Supply and demand situation**: The US cotton's excellent - good rate is 54%, down 1%. Brazil's cotton production is expected to be 393.5 million tons, down 0.3 million tons. In China, the new cotton is in the boll - opening stage, and the commercial inventory is 171.26 million tons, lower than the same period [12][13]. - **Market view**: It is recommended to go long on dips in the short term. After September, the long - short rhythm should be adjusted according to demand and new cotton prices [2][14]. Jujube - **Market data**: The main contract CJ2601 closes at 11360 yuan/ton, down 0.44%. The inventory of 36 sample enterprises is 9519 tons, down 167 tons from last week [15]. - **Production situation**: The new - season jujube production in southern Xinjiang is estimated to be 50 - 58 million tons, with a reduced production but less than in 2023/24 [16]. - **Market view**: It is recommended to go long on dips. Attention should be paid to weather impacts on quality and subsequent stocking [2][16]. Live Pigs - **Market data**: The main contract Lh2511 closes at 13745 yuan/ton, down 0.83%. The national average spot price is 13740 yuan/ton, down 0.65%. The slaughter enterprise's daily operating rate is 29.52%, up 0.52% [17]. - **Supply and demand situation**: The planned August slaughter volume of sample enterprises is 1322.57 million heads, up 5.26%. The demand is expected to improve in the next 1 - 2 months [18]. - **Market view**: Do not short blindly in the short term. Consider going long on far - month contracts on dips or conducting reverse arbitrage around strong contracts [2][19].