Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the long-term upward trend of copper prices driven by three main factors: the commodity currency logic, structural supply shortages, and new demand dynamics, while also discussing the recent price pullback and future marginal driving conditions [3][4][5]. Group 1: Reasons for Copper Price Surge - Commodity currency logic: The global monetary system's credit challenges and major central banks' large-scale easing have led to strong inflation expectations, making copper's "commodity currency" attribute a dominant price driver over its "industrial commodity" attribute [4][10]. - Structural supply shortages: Factors such as "policy-induced stockpiling," "mine production cuts," and "catalytic accidents" have created significant supply pressures, making it easy for demand increases to lead to substantial price hikes [4][28]. - New demand dynamics: The current copper price increase is driven not only by supply tightening but also by significant demand growth from AI computing power, global energy infrastructure reconstruction, and emerging technology sectors, reshaping the long-term supply-demand landscape for copper [4][29]. Group 2: Reasons for Recent Price Pullback - The relative tightening of global dollar liquidity is the main tail risk affecting copper prices, with the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve withdrawing dollar funds from risk assets since October, leading to rising U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar index [5][37]. Group 3: Future Marginal Driving Conditions - The medium to long-term supply-demand gap for copper is predictable, with the largest marginal variables coming from macroeconomic factors that will influence copper prices from the demand side [6][34]. - The continuation of the commodity currency logic is crucial, as the market's perception of physical asset attractiveness remains strong amid expectations of global liquidity easing [34]. - The market's expectations regarding interest rate cuts and the cessation of balance sheet reduction are significant, as they can define recovery or recession scenarios [36][37]. - The gradual reduction of risks in U.S.-China relations may also influence copper prices positively, as recent negotiations have led to a decrease in demand risk [40].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The precious metals market is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the short - term, lacking significant drivers after the temporary easing of trade frictions and the outcome of the October interest - rate meeting. Attention should be paid to the trading window in December, when there may be a game around next year's interest - rate cut space before and after the December interest - rate meeting. [4] - The long - term price center of gold is expected to move upward as debt over - issuance and anti - globalization drive the decline of the US dollar's credit, and gold is the preferred asset to hedge against the US dollar's credit risk. Silver is expected to follow a similar trend, with its price center also moving up in the long run. [4] - The expected price range for London gold this week is [3800, 4200], and for London silver is [46, 52]. [4] 3) Summary by Related Catalogues a. Market Situation - On Tuesday, precious metal prices remained volatile. The US dollar index rebounded above 100 for the first time in nearly two months, the commodity market generally declined, and the global equity market declined in resonance. [2][4] - The US government shutdown has entered its 35th day, tying the 2018 record. The market anticipates a resumption of work in mid - November, and attention should be paid to subsequent US labor data. [2][3][4] b. Key Information - As of November 4th, the US federal government shutdown entered its 35th day, tying the longest shutdown record in US history. The Democratic and Republican parties have been deadlocked, and the Senate will hold its 14th vote on November 4th. [3] - US Treasury Secretary Bessent expects robust and high - speed growth next year without triggering inflation, and believes that inflation and interest rates will decline. [3] - Federal Reserve Governor Bowman said that implementing the Basel Accords is a priority, but capital standards cannot be considered in isolation from reality. [3] c. Index Data - On November 4, 2025, the comprehensive index of the CITIC Futures Commodity Index was 2229.67, down 0.92%; the Commodity 20 Index was 2521.83, down 0.98%; the industrial products index was 2213.57, down 1.07%. [45] - The precious metals index on November 4, 2025, was 3217.48, with a daily decline of 1.10%, a 5 - day increase of 0.09%, a 1 - month increase of 4.79%, and a year - to - date increase of 45.43%. [47]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The Treasury bond futures are expected to have no trend - like market, and caution is advised [5][6]. - The stock index futures are expected to have little risk of a sharp decline, and investors can choose the right time to go long [9][10]. - For precious metals, the short - term pricing is relatively full, and investors can take profits on long positions and then wait and see [11][12]. - The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils are likely to remain weak in the medium - term, and investors can look for short - selling opportunities at high levels during rebounds [13][14]. - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has weakened, and investors can look for short - selling opportunities at high levels [16]. - Coke and coking coal futures may continue to be strong in the short - term, and investors can look for buying opportunities during pullbacks [18][19]. - Ferroalloys may continue to have oversupply in the short - term, and investors can consider long positions at low levels when the spot falls into the loss zone again [21][22]. - For crude oil, the main contract should be temporarily observed [24][25]. - For fuel oil, investors can look for short - selling opportunities in the main contract [27][28]. - Polyolefins may rebound, and the main contract should be temporarily observed [29][30]. - Synthetic rubber is expected to fluctuate [31][33]. - For natural rubber, investors can look for long - buying opportunities [34][35]. - For PVC, investors should pay attention to changes in the supply side [36][37]. - The downside space of urea is limited [38]. - PX may fluctuate and adjust in the short - term, and investors can participate in the range, paying attention to crude oil changes and macro - policies [39]. - PTA may fluctuate in the short - term, and investors should be cautious, paying attention to oil price changes [40]. - Ethylene glycol may fluctuate weakly in the short - term, and investors should pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [41]. - Short - fiber may fluctuate following costs in the short - term, and investors should pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [42]. - Bottle - grade chips may fluctuate following the cost side in the future, and investors should control risks [43]. - For lithium carbonate, investors should pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [44][45]. - Copper is in a stage of adjustment [46][47]. - Aluminum is expected to run at a high level [48][50]. - Zinc is expected to continue to fluctuate in a range [51][52]. - For lead, investors should be cautious about chasing long positions [53][54]. - Tin prices may fluctuate strongly [55]. - Nickel prices may fluctuate [56]. - For soybean meal, investors can consider exiting long positions when it continues to rise; for soybean oil, it is advisable to wait and see [57][58]. - Palm oil investors can consider buying on pullbacks [59][60]. - For rapeseed meal, investors can consider buying near - term contracts and selling far - term contracts [61][62]. - The upside space of cotton prices is expected to be limited [63][64]. - The sugar price has certain support at the bottom [66][68]. - Apples are expected to run strongly in the short - term [70][71]. - For live pigs, investors can consider short - selling on rebounds [71][72]. - For eggs, investors can continue to hold short positions and look for opportunities to add short positions on rebounds [73][76]. - For corn, it is advisable to wait and see; corn starch may follow the corn market [77][79]. Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - Last trading day, most Treasury bond futures closed down. The central bank had net liquidity injections in October. The macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and the Treasury bond futures are expected to have no trend - like market [5]. Stock Index - Last trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The A - share new account opening data in October 2025 decreased year - on - year but increased in the first 10 months. The domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, but the asset valuation is low and the market sentiment is warming up. It is expected to have little risk of a sharp decline [7][9]. Precious Metals - Last trading day, gold and silver futures closed down. The global trade and financial environment is complex, which is beneficial to precious metals, but the short - term rise is large, and the pricing is full [11]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - Last trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures continued to correct. In the medium - term, the prices are dominated by industry supply - demand. The demand for rebar is still decreasing year - on - year, and the inventory pressure is obvious [13][14]. Iron Ore - Last trading day, iron ore futures continued to correct. The demand has declined, the supply is expected to increase, and the inventory has risen. The supply - demand pattern has weakened [16]. Coke and Coking Coal - Last trading day, coke and coking coal futures fell sharply. The supply of coking coal is slightly tight, and the demand for coke is normal. The futures may continue to be strong in the short - term [18][19]. Ferroalloys - Last trading day, manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures closed down. The supply is still in excess in the short - term, and the cost is rising. There may be long - buying opportunities at low levels [21][22]. Crude Oil - Last trading day, INE crude oil rose and then fell. The Baker Hughes rig count increased, and OPEC will suspend production increases, which is expected to support oil prices [23][24]. Fuel Oil - Last trading day, fuel oil fluctuated downwards. The supply in Singapore has recovered, which is negative, but there are also positive factors such as sanctions on Russia [26][27]. Polyolefins - Last trading day, the PP market in Hangzhou and the LLDPE market in Yuyao had some price adjustments. The supply is affected by maintenance, the inventory is low, and the demand is in the peak season, so the market may rebound [29]. Synthetic Rubber - Last trading day, synthetic rubber futures closed down. The cost is weak, and the supply and demand are both affected. It is expected to fluctuate [31][33]. Natural Rubber - Last trading day, natural rubber futures closed down. The supply is affected by weather, and the demand and inventory are also changing. There may be long - buying opportunities [34][35]. PVC - Last trading day, PVC futures closed down. The supply is in excess, and the demand is weak. The price may have limited downward space and needs improvement in the fundamentals [36][37]. Urea - Last trading day, urea futures closed up. The supply is gradually recovering, the demand is affected by the season, and the profit is narrowing. The downside space is limited [38]. PX - Last trading day, PX futures closed down. The supply and demand structure has improved, and it may fluctuate and adjust in the short - term [39]. PTA - Last trading day, PTA futures closed down. The supply is affected by maintenance, the demand is relatively stable, and the processing fee is low. It may fluctuate in the short - term [40]. Ethylene Glycol - Last trading day, ethylene glycol futures closed down. The supply is increasing, the inventory may accumulate, and it may fluctuate weakly in the short - term [41]. Short - Fiber - Last trading day, short - fiber futures closed down. The supply is at a relatively high level, the demand is improving, and it may follow the cost to fluctuate [42]. Bottle - Grade Chips - Last trading day, bottle - grade chips futures closed down. The supply is increasing, the demand is slightly reduced, and it may follow the cost side to fluctuate [43]. Lithium Carbonate - Last trading day, lithium carbonate futures closed down. The supply is at a high level, and the demand in the energy - storage and power - battery sectors is improving. Attention should be paid to consumption sustainability [44][45]. Copper - Last trading day, copper futures closed down. The macro - data and the demand are not good, and the supply is also affected. It is in a stage of adjustment [46][47]. Aluminum - Last trading day, aluminum and alumina futures closed down. The supply of alumina is in excess, and the production of electrolytic aluminum may be affected by winter. The price may run at a high level [48][50]. Zinc - Last trading day, zinc futures closed down. The supply is affected by mining problems, and the demand is weak. It is expected to fluctuate in a range [51][52]. Lead - Last trading day, lead futures closed down. The supply of primary lead is increasing, and the demand is affected by high prices. Caution is needed when chasing long positions [53][54]. Tin - Last trading day, tin futures closed down. The supply is tight, and the demand has certain support. The price may fluctuate strongly [55]. Nickel - Last trading day, nickel futures closed down. The supply has concerns, and the demand is affected by the real - estate market. It may fluctuate [56]. Soybean Meal and Soybean Oil - Last trading day, soybean meal futures closed down, and soybean oil futures closed flat. The supply of soybeans is relatively loose, and the demand for soybean meal and soybean oil has different trends. Different strategies are suggested for them [57][58]. Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil rebounded. The inventory in China is at a medium level. Investors can consider buying on pullbacks [59][60]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The Canadian rapeseed market is volatile. The import of rapeseed in China has decreased, and the inventory of rapeseed, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil is at different levels. Different strategies are suggested [61][62]. Cotton - Last trading day, domestic and foreign cotton futures fell. The Sino - US trade situation is favorable in the medium - long term, but the short - term price is affected by harvest pressure and domestic supply - demand [63][64]. Sugar - Last trading day, sugar futures rose and then fell. The global sugar supply is expected to be in excess, but the domestic supply pressure in the fourth quarter is not large, and the price has support at the bottom [66][68]. Apples - Last trading day, apple futures fell sharply. The quality of apples this year is poor, and the opening price is higher. It is expected to run strongly in the short - term [70][71]. Live Pigs - The price of live pigs is weakening. The supply is increasing, and investors can consider short - selling on rebounds [71][72]. Eggs - The price of eggs is stable. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is expected to be weak. Investors can continue to hold short positions and look for opportunities to add short positions on rebounds [73][76]. Corn and Corn Starch - Last trading day, corn and corn - starch futures closed down. The harvest pressure of corn continues, and the supply and demand of corn starch have different trends. Corn may be under pressure, and corn starch may follow the corn market [77][79].

Core Insights - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes China's commitment to "self-reliance in technology," "high-quality development," and "high-level opening up," which are seen as crucial for both domestic and global economic stability [1][2] Group 1: Economic Context - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is introduced in a more complex global environment compared to the "14th Five-Year Plan," highlighting China's proactive approach to challenges and its determination to continue opening up [2] - Experts note that China's focus on expanding consumption is a positive move in response to insufficient domestic demand and global economic imbalances [2][3] Group 2: Policy Signals - The plan sends clear and stable policy signals, aiming to avoid economic damage from policy fluctuations and providing a long-term strategic framework for national governance [3] - It is characterized as a declaration of how China intends to navigate challenges while addressing its own development issues [3] Group 3: Global Engagement - The plan proposes to expand high-level opening up, transitioning from merely removing barriers to establishing rules, indicating a shift towards proactive engagement with international trade standards [4] - China's approach to globalization is evolving from "bringing in" to supporting Chinese enterprises in "going out," creating a new open framework that offers significant market opportunities globally [4] Group 4: Multilateral Cooperation - Experts emphasize the importance of maintaining a favorable environment for free trade and the role of multilateral institutions like the WTO and UN in stabilizing geopolitical dynamics [5] - The need for enhanced economic cooperation between Europe and China is highlighted as essential for maintaining an open trade and investment environment [5]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given report Group 2: Core Views - The report covers various sectors including bonds, stocks, precious metals, and commodities, providing analyses and trading suggestions for each sector. For example, it expects that treasury bond futures may not have a trending market and advises caution; stock index futures are expected to have limited downside risk and suggests seizing opportunities to go long; precious metals are currently over - priced, and it is recommended to take profits on long positions and then wait and see [6][9][11]. Group 3: Sector - Specific Summaries Bonds - **Treasury Bonds**: The previous trading day saw mixed results for treasury bond futures. The central bank conducted 783 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 259 billion yuan. China's October S&P manufacturing PMI showed a slowdown in the expansion trend. Given the current economic situation, treasury bond futures are expected to have no trending market, and caution is advised [5][6]. Stocks - **Stock Index**: The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. With the release of new immigration and entry - exit policies, and considering the current economic situation (stable but with weak recovery momentum), combined with low domestic asset valuations and sufficient economic resilience, along with the inflow of incremental funds and the easing of Sino - US economic and trade uncertainties, it is expected that there is limited downside risk, and opportunities to go long can be seized [8][9]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The previous trading day, gold and silver futures showed small increases. Fed officials' remarks suggest potential interest rate cuts. The complex global trade and financial environment, the "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends, and the slowdown of the US labor market are all favorable for precious metals. However, due to the recent large increase in prices, it is recommended to take profits on long positions and then wait and see [11]. Commodities - **Steel Products (Thread, Hot - Rolled Coil)**: The previous trading day, steel product futures slightly declined. In the medium term, the price of steel products is dominated by industrial supply - demand logic. The demand for rebar is still in a year - on - year decline, and the supply side has over - capacity issues. Considering the current high inventory, the price of rebar is expected to remain weak, and hot - rolled coils may follow a similar trend. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities at high prices during rebounds [13][14]. - **Iron Ore**: The previous trading day, iron ore futures significantly declined. The demand for iron ore has decreased, while the supply is expected to increase year - on - year in the fourth quarter, and the port inventory is rising. The market supply - demand pattern has weakened, and investors can focus on short - selling opportunities at high prices [16]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures continued to decline. The supply of coking coal is slightly tight, and the price of coke is facing an upward adjustment. From a technical perspective, the futures may continue to be strong in the short term, and investors can focus on buying opportunities during pullbacks [18][19]. - **Ferroalloys**: The previous trading day, ferroalloy futures showed small increases. The supply of ferroalloys is currently in a state of over - supply, but the cost is rising, and the downward space is limited. There may be short - term disturbances in supply reduction expectations, and investors can consider long - position opportunities at low prices [21][22]. - **Crude Oil**: The previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated upward. The increase in the number of US drilling rigs does not necessarily lead to an increase in production. US sanctions on Russian oil companies and OPEC's decision to suspend production increases are all favorable for oil prices. Investors can focus on long - position opportunities [23][24]. - **Fuel Oil**: The previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated upward. The recovery of Singapore's fuel oil supply is negative for prices, while the sanctions on Russia and the reduction of Sino - US trade frictions are positive. Investors can focus on long - position opportunities [26][27]. - **Polyolefins**: The previous trading day, the PP and LLDPE markets showed some adjustments. In November, the impact of maintenance is expected to be high, and the inventory is low. November is the peak season for demand, so the market is expected to rebound. For now, it is recommended to wait and see [29]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures declined. The cost side is weak, and the price is expected to have limited downward space. It is recommended to pay attention to raw material prices and supply changes. The market is expected to oscillate [31][33]. - **Natural Rubber**: The previous trading day, natural rubber futures declined. The supply is affected by bad weather, and the demand is weak. The inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to pay attention to production area conditions and demand expectations, and there may be long - position opportunities [34][35]. - **PVC**: The previous trading day, PVC futures declined. The current supply - demand situation is still oversupplied, but the downward space is limited. It is recommended to pay attention to export and supply reduction after the festival [36][37]. - **Urea**: The previous trading day, urea futures declined. In the short term, it is necessary to pay attention to export policies and seasonal recovery signals of agricultural demand. The price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range, and the downward space is limited [38]. - **PX**: The previous trading day, PX futures increased. The supply - demand structure has improved, and the cost side is affected by crude oil fluctuations. The price is expected to oscillate, and investors can participate within a certain range while paying attention to crude oil changes and macro - policies [39]. - **PTA**: The previous trading day, PTA futures increased. The supply side has some adjustments, and the demand side is relatively stable. The processing fee is low, and the inventory is low. The price is expected to oscillate, and investors should be cautious and pay attention to oil prices [40]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures declined. The supply is increasing, and the inventory may accumulate slightly. However, the demand is expected to improve, and the cost side sentiment is positive. The price is expected to oscillate, and investors can participate within a certain range while paying attention to port inventory and imports [41]. - **Short - Fiber**: The previous trading day, short - fiber futures declined. The supply is at a relatively high level, and the demand is improving, but the cost - driving force is limited. The price is expected to oscillate with the cost, and investors should pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [42]. - **Bottle Chips**: The previous trading day, bottle chip futures increased. The processing fee has decreased, the supply is increasing slightly, and the export growth is slowing down. The price is expected to oscillate with the cost, and investors should control risks [43]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures declined. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is also strong, with the inventory gradually decreasing. It is recommended to pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [44][45]. - **Copper**: The previous trading day, copper futures declined. The Sino - US trade negotiation is in a stalemate, and the Fed's interest rate cut has a complex impact on copper prices. The supply of copper concentrate is tight, and high prices suppress demand. The price is expected to enter a sideways consolidation phase [46][47]. - **Aluminum**: The previous trading day, aluminum futures showed mixed results. The supply of alumina is in an oversupply situation, and the production of electrolytic aluminum may be affected by winter restrictions. High prices may suppress demand, but the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to remain at a high level [48][49][50]. - **Zinc**: The previous trading day, zinc futures increased. The supply of zinc concentrate is tight, and the production of refined zinc is limited. The demand is weak. The price is expected to continue to oscillate [51][52]. - **Lead**: The previous trading day, lead futures increased. The supply of primary lead is increasing, and the supply of recycled lead is recovering slowly. High prices suppress demand. The price is supported by low inventory and cost, but the upward space is limited, and it is recommended to be cautious when going long [53][54]. - **Tin**: The previous trading day, tin futures declined. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand has certain support. The inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to oscillate strongly [54]. - **Nickel**: The previous trading day, nickel futures declined. The macro - environment has improved, but the supply - demand situation is complex. The supply of high - grade nickel ore is tight, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate [55]. - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: The previous trading day, soybean meal futures increased, and soybean oil futures decreased. Sino - US trade relations are expected to improve, and the Brazilian soybean sowing is progressing smoothly. The supply of soybeans is relatively loose, and the demand for soybean meal is expected to grow moderately, while the demand for soybean oil is suppressed. It is recommended to consider taking profits on long - positions in soybean meal and wait and see for soybean oil [56][57]. - **Palm Oil**: The previous trading day, palm oil futures declined. The supply is increasing, and the market is expected to be weak. It is recommended to focus on short - selling opportunities during rebounds [60]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The previous trading day, rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil futures increased. The supply of eggs is high, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to hold short - positions and consider adding short - positions during rebounds [61][62]. - **Cotton**: The previous trading day, cotton futures oscillated. Sino - US trade relations are favorable in the long - term, but short - term international cotton prices are under pressure. Domestic cotton has a strong production expectation, and the demand is neutral - weak. The price is expected to have limited upward space [63][64]. - **Sugar**: The previous trading day, sugar futures rebounded. Brazilian sugar production is expected to increase, and the global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus, which restricts price rebounds. The domestic supply pressure in the fourth quarter is not large, and the price has certain support at the bottom [65][66][67]. - **Apple**: The previous trading day, apple futures declined. The quality of this year's apples is poor, and the opening price is higher than last year. The price is expected to be strong in the short term [69][70][71]. - **Live Pigs**: The previous trading day, live pig futures declined. The pig price is expected to be weak, and the supply is increasing. It is recommended to focus on short - selling opportunities during rebounds [72][73]. - **Eggs**: The previous trading day, egg futures increased. The supply of eggs is high, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to hold short - positions and consider adding short - positions during rebounds [74][75]. - **Corn and Starch**: The previous trading day, corn and starch futures increased. The price of corn is affected by the rise in soybean prices. The inventory situation is complex, and the demand is growing slightly. The price of corn is expected to be under pressure, and starch may follow the trend of corn [76][77].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Precious metal prices are expected to maintain a short - term oscillating pattern, with a trading window in December. In the long run, the price center of gold is expected to move upward, and silver's price center is expected to follow gold's long - term upward trend [1][3][6]. - Gold is the preferred asset to hedge against US dollar credit risks, and the global central bank's gold - buying trend continues [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Logic - On Monday, precious metal prices oscillated. After the domestic market opened, prices fell slightly and then recovered. The domestic gold tax adjustment policy had little impact on the gold market, but some spot gold prices increased due to tax transfer after the reform [1][3]. - After the phased easing of trade frictions and the October interest - rate meeting, there is no significant driver for precious metal prices this month. In December, there may be a game around next year's interest - rate cut space. Personnel changes at the Fed may become a positive driving factor. In the long run, over - issued debt and de - globalization drive the decline of the US dollar's credit, making gold a good hedge [3][6]. 3.2 Key Information - According to a poll, 52% of US voters think the Republican Party is responsible for the government shutdown, 42% blame the Democratic Party, and 4% think both are responsible. The proportion blaming the Democratic Party is the highest in nearly 30 years [2]. - The US Supreme Court will hold a hearing on Trump's "reciprocal tariff" policy. Trump believes it is one of the most important rulings in the court's history and warns of serious consequences if he has to abandon the policy [2]. - US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that parts of the US economy may be in recession due to high interest rates and called on the Fed to cut rates faster. Stephen Milan, a dovish Fed official, also called for more aggressive rate cuts [2]. 3.3 Market Outlook - This week, the price of London gold is expected to be in the range of [3800, 4200], and London silver in the range of [46, 52] [6]. 3.4 Index Performance - On November 3, 2025, the composite index of CITIC Futures commodities showed that the commodity index was 2250.33 (+0.10%), the commodity 20 index was 2546.82 (+0.02%), the industrial products index was 2237.50 (+0.09%), and the PPI commodity index was 1352.44 (+0.15%) [44]. - The precious metals index on November 3, 2025, was 3253.40, with a daily increase of 0.09%, a 5 - day increase of 2.76%, a 1 - month increase of 7.80%, and a year - to - date increase of 47.05% [45].

Core Viewpoint - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the importance of China's globalization efforts amid a complex international environment, highlighting both challenges and opportunities for Chinese enterprises in their overseas expansion. Group 1: External Environment and Challenges - The "15th Five-Year Plan" acknowledges the intensified international competition and challenges posed by unilateralism, protectionism, and geopolitical tensions, which affect Chinese enterprises' overseas operations [2][3]. - The International Monetary Fund forecasts global GDP growth rates of 3.2% and 3.1% for 2025 and 2026, respectively, indicating a relatively slow economic growth environment [2]. - Changes in trade policies, such as new tariffs imposed by countries like Mexico on imports from China, complicate the export landscape for Chinese companies [3]. Group 2: Opportunities for Globalization - The "15th Five-Year Plan" introduces new proposals for Chinese enterprises to actively shape international environments and leverage their advantages in global supply chains [4]. - Chinese enterprises are increasingly demonstrating strong global market competitiveness, particularly in sectors like electric vehicles and 5G technology, despite geopolitical pressures [5]. Group 3: Cultural and Traditional Industry Development - The plan emphasizes the importance of enhancing the influence of Chinese culture globally, encouraging cultural enterprises to expand overseas [7][9]. - There is a focus on optimizing and upgrading traditional industries, with specific mentions of enhancing the global competitiveness of sectors such as mining, metallurgy, and textiles [10]. Group 4: Infrastructure and Connectivity - The plan highlights the need for robust international logistics and infrastructure, aiming to improve trade facilitation through diversified and resilient transportation networks [12]. - The ongoing geopolitical factors affecting trade are acknowledged, yet the overall trend towards globalization remains strong, necessitating improved logistics to enhance competitiveness [12]. Group 5: Service Trade and Financial Integration - The "15th Five-Year Plan" places greater emphasis on the development of service trade, aiming to expand market access and improve service trade standards [15]. - The plan also stresses the importance of advancing the internationalization of the Renminbi and building a self-controlled cross-border payment system, which will facilitate trade and reduce risks for Chinese enterprises [16].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy in 2025 is experiencing significant divergence, with traditional industries like manufacturing and real estate under pressure from tariffs and immigration policies, while the technology sector is seeing a surge in capital expenditure driven by the AI wave [2][3] Supply Side: Tariff and Population Pressure - The supply contraction in the U.S. economy is expected to persist due to increased tariffs and a slowdown in population growth, with the effective tariff rate rising from 2.4% last year to 9.8% this year [5][6] - Immigration policies have tightened, leading to a significant decrease in new immigrants, with labor force growth projected to drop from an average of 1.5% during the Biden administration to 0.6% during Trump's second term [6][8] - The potential for productivity improvement through AI is acknowledged, but it is expected to take time to materialize, with estimates suggesting AI could contribute approximately 0.2 percentage points to annual productivity growth by the early 2030s [7][8] Demand Side: Capital Expenditure Cycle Fluctuations - The AI investment cycle is anticipated to face volatility, with AI contributing about 0.7 percentage points to U.S. real GDP growth in the first half of 2025, but the marginal returns on capital are expected to decline as investment scales up [10][11] - The current phase of AI investment is heavily focused on data centers and hardware, resembling a "new infrastructure" cycle, with 2025 likely being the peak for investment growth [10][11] - The cost of AI infrastructure is projected to be significantly higher than during the internet bubble era, influenced by high inflation and tariffs, which may lead to increased sensitivity among investors regarding returns [11][12] Fiscal, Monetary, and "Stagflation" Risks - Fiscal and monetary policies are expected to see marginal easing, but the overall stimulus effect is likely to be limited, with the Trump administration's "Great Beautiful Act" potentially increasing the fiscal deficit by about 0.8 percentage points in 2026 [19][20] - The Federal Reserve is likely to lower interest rates cumulatively by 50 basis points in 2026, with the federal funds rate expected to end the year in the range of 3%-3.25% [19][20] - The U.S. economy is currently exhibiting "stagflation" characteristics, with rising material costs and declining consumer confidence, necessitating vigilance against further "stagflation" risks in the first half of 2026 [20][21]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - For Treasury bonds, it is expected that there will be no trending market, and caution should be maintained [5][6]. - For stock index futures, the risk of a significant decline is low, and one can choose the right time to go long [8][9]. - For precious metals, the short - term pricing is relatively full. After taking profits on long positions, one can wait and see [11][12]. - For rebar and hot - rolled coils, the prices may remain weak in the medium term. Investors can look for short - selling opportunities at high levels during rebounds and manage their positions carefully [13]. - For iron ore, the supply - demand pattern has weakened. Investors can look for short - selling opportunities at high levels and manage their positions carefully [15]. - For coking coal and coke, the futures may continue to be strong in the short term. Investors can look for buying opportunities during pullbacks and manage their positions carefully [17]. - For ferroalloys, there may be short - term supply surplus. One can consider long positions at low levels when the spot falls into the loss range again [20]. - For crude oil, investors can focus on long - buying opportunities for the main contract [21][22]. - For fuel oil, investors can focus on long - buying opportunities for the main contract [24][25]. - For polyolefins, investors can focus on short - selling opportunities [26][27]. - For synthetic rubber, it is expected to fluctuate [28][29]. - For natural rubber, one can focus on long - buying opportunities [30][31]. - For PVC, one should focus on changes in the supply side [32][33]. - For urea, the downside space is limited [34][35]. - For p - xylene (PX), in the short term, it may fluctuate and adjust. One can participate within the range, control positions, and be vigilant about crude oil changes [36]. - For PTA, in the short term, it may fluctuate. One should view it with caution, control risks, and pay attention to oil price changes [37]. - For ethylene glycol, in the short term, it may fluctuate. One can participate within the range and pay attention to port inventory and import changes [39]. - For short - fiber, in the short term, it may fluctuate following the cost. One should control risks and pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [40]. - For bottle chips, in the future, it is expected to fluctuate following the cost. One should control risks [41][42]. - For lithium carbonate, pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [43]. - For copper, it may enter a sideways consolidation phase after the previous rise [44][45]. - For aluminum, it may maintain a high - level oscillation [45][46]. - For zinc, it is expected to continue to oscillate [47][48]. - For lead, be cautious about chasing long positions [48][49]. - For tin, it is expected to oscillate and strengthen [50]. - For nickel, it is expected to oscillate [52]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, one can consider long - buying opportunities for soybean meal at the support level after adjustment, and temporarily wait and see for soybean oil [53][55]. - For palm oil, one can consider buying on pullbacks [56][57]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, one can consider buying rapeseed oil on pullbacks [58][60]. - For cotton, the upside space of cotton prices is expected to be limited [63][64]. - For sugar, there is certain support below the price [65][68]. - For apples, it is expected to run strongly [69][70]. - For live pigs, one can consider short - selling opportunities on rebounds [71][73]. - For eggs, one can continue to hold short positions and look for opportunities to add short positions on rebounds [74][75]. - For corn and starch, it is advisable to wait and see for corn, and starch may follow the corn market [77][78]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures closed with mixed performance. The central bank conducted 355.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 187.1 billion yuan. China's October official manufacturing PMI declined, while the non - manufacturing PMI rose slightly. The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the Treasury bond yield is at a relatively low level [5]. Stock Index Futures - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The CSRC and the Asset Management Association of China issued relevant guidelines and rules for public - offering funds. The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak, and corporate profit growth is low. However, domestic asset valuations are low, and the market sentiment has warmed up. It is expected that the risk of a significant decline is low, and one can choose the right time to go long [7][8]. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures rose. The eurozone's October CPI and core CPI data were released. The government issued a tax policy on gold. The global trade and financial environment is complex, and the trends of "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" are favorable for precious metals. However, the recent increase has been large, and the short - term pricing is relatively full [10][11]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures slightly corrected. In the medium term, the demand for rebar is still declining year - on - year, but there is a slight improvement in the traditional peak season. The supply side has over - capacity, and the weekly output of rebar has declined. The inventory is higher than last year, and the price may remain weak. The trend of hot - rolled coils may be similar to that of rebar. Investors can look for short - selling opportunities at high levels during rebounds [13]. Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures slightly corrected. The national hot - metal daily output has decreased, the supply of iron ore is expected to increase year - on - year in the fourth quarter, and the port inventory has risen. The supply - demand pattern has weakened, and investors can look for short - selling opportunities at high levels [15]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures slightly declined. The supply of coking coal is slightly tight, and the demand is fair. The third - round price increase of coke procurement has started but has not been fully implemented. The supply of coke has decreased, and it is uncertain whether steel mills will accept the price increase. The futures may continue to be strong in the short term, and investors can look for buying opportunities during pullbacks [17]. Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures declined. The supply of manganese ore has increased slightly, and the cost of ferroalloys has risen. The output of ferroalloys remains high, and the demand is weak, with short - term supply surplus. One can consider long positions at low levels when the spot falls into the loss range again [19][20]. Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil fluctuated within a range. The CFTC持仓 report was suspended. The number of US oil and gas rigs decreased. The proportion of Russian crude oil in HPCL's supply has decreased. It is expected that it is difficult for US crude oil production to increase significantly, and market attention has shifted to the OPEC meeting. Investors can focus on long - buying opportunities [21][22]. Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil slightly oscillated. The supply of Singapore fuel oil has recovered, which is negative for prices. Russia being sanctioned and the reduction of Sino - US trade frictions are positive for prices. Investors can focus on long - buying opportunities [23][24][25]. Polyolefins - On the previous trading day, the price of polyolefins declined. In November, the impact of maintenance is expected to be 416,000 tons, and the inventory is low year - on - year. November is the peak season for demand. There is support from maintenance and inventory, and the market is expected to rebound. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities [26][27]. Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures declined. The cost is weak, the supply has decreased slightly, the demand has declined, and the inventory is expected to decrease. It is expected to oscillate [28][29]. Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures declined. The supply in overseas and domestic production areas has been affected by weather, and the demand has declined. The inventory has decreased. One should focus on long - buying opportunities [30][31]. PVC - On the previous trading day, PVC futures declined. The supply is in excess, but the downward space is limited. The production capacity utilization rate has increased, the pre - sales have increased, and the inventory has decreased slightly. One should focus on changes in the supply side [32][33]. Urea - On the previous trading day, urea futures declined. The supply has increased slightly, the demand is affected by the end of autumn fertilizer orders, the cost is stable, and the profit has narrowed. The inventory is lower than expected. The downside space is limited [34][35]. p - Xylene (PX) - On the previous trading day, PX futures declined. The PX load has increased, and the import has decreased. The short - term supply - demand structure has improved, and it may fluctuate and adjust [36]. PTA - On the previous trading day, PTA futures declined. The supply load has decreased slightly, and the demand is stable. The processing fee has slightly recovered, and the inventory is low. In the short term, it may fluctuate, and one should pay attention to oil price changes [37]. Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures declined. The supply load has increased, the port inventory has decreased, and the demand support is limited. In the short term, it may fluctuate, and one should pay attention to port inventory and import changes [38][39]. Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, short - fiber futures declined. The supply load has decreased, the demand has improved slightly, and the processing fee has adjusted. In the short term, it may fluctuate following the cost, and one should pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [40]. Bottle Chips - On the previous trading day, bottle - chip futures declined. The processing fee has decreased, the supply load has increased, and the export growth has slowed down. It is expected to fluctuate following the cost [41][42]. Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures declined. The supply is at a high level, and the consumption in the energy - storage and power - battery sectors has improved. The inventory has decreased, and one should pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [43]. Copper - On the previous trading day, copper futures declined. The Sino - US summit has ended, and the Fed has cut interest rates, but the overall progress is not as optimistic as expected. The supply of copper concentrate is tight, and high copper prices have suppressed consumption. The inventory has increased slightly. It may enter a sideways consolidation phase [44][45]. Aluminum - On the previous trading day, aluminum futures rose, and alumina futures declined. The supply of bauxite in the north has not recovered, and the alumina market is in excess supply. The production of electrolytic aluminum may be affected by winter restrictions, and the consumption is expected to decline. The inventory has increased slightly. It may maintain a high - level oscillation [45][46]. Zinc - On the previous trading day, zinc futures declined. The production of zinc mines is restricted, and the processing fee is under pressure. The demand is weak, and the inventory has decreased slightly. It is expected to continue to oscillate [47][48]. Lead - On the previous trading day, lead futures declined. The production of primary lead is stable, and the production of recycled lead has recovered slowly. High lead prices have suppressed demand, and the inventory has decreased. One should be cautious about chasing long positions [48][49]. Tin - On the previous trading day, tin futures rose. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand has certain resilience. The inventory has decreased. It is expected to oscillate and strengthen [50]. Nickel - On the previous trading day, nickel futures rose. The Fed has cut interest rates, and the Sino - US talks have released positive signals. The supply of nickel ore is expected to be affected by policy changes, and the downstream demand is weak. The inventory is relatively stable but at a high level. It is expected to oscillate [51][52]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - On the previous trading day, soybean - meal futures rose, and soybean - oil futures declined. Sino - US trade friction is expected to improve, and Brazilian soybean sowing is progressing smoothly. The soybean - crushing volume remains high, the inventory of soybean meal has decreased, and the inventory of soybean oil is still under pressure. The consumption of soybean oil is affected, and the demand for soybean meal is expected to increase slightly. One can consider long - buying opportunities for soybean meal at the support level after adjustment, and temporarily wait and see for soybean oil [53][55]. Palm Oil - On the previous trading day, palm - oil futures declined. Malaysian palm - oil exports have increased, and China's palm - oil imports have decreased. The inventory is at a medium level. One can consider buying on pullbacks [56][57]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - On the previous trading day, rapeseed - meal and rapeseed - oil futures were affected by the price of other oils. Sino - US trade negotiations have certain results. The import of rapeseed and rapeseed meal has decreased, and the import of rapeseed oil has increased. The inventory of rapeseed has decreased, and the inventory of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil is at a high level. One can consider buying rapeseed oil on pullbacks [58][60]. Cotton - On the previous trading day, cotton futures oscillated. Sino - US leaders have met, and textile and clothing exports have shown a stable performance. The domestic cotton harvest is earlier, and the planting area and output have increased. The cotton price is expected to have limited upside space [61][63][64]. Sugar - On the previous trading day, sugar futures declined. Brazil's sugar production has slightly exceeded expectations, and the global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus. China's sugar import has increased year - on - year. The northern region has started sugar production, and the southern region will start in December. There is certain support below the price [65][68]. Apples - On the previous trading day, apple futures oscillated at a high level. The opening price of late - maturing apples is higher than last year, and the quality is poor. It is expected to run strongly [69][70]. Live Pigs - On the previous trading day, live - pig futures declined. The pig price is expected to decline weakly. The supply is expected to increase in the second half of the month, and one can consider short - selling opportunities on rebounds [71][73]. Eggs - On the previous trading day, egg futures declined. The cost of eggs has increased slightly, and the profit is low. The egg - laying hen inventory is at a high level, and the supply is expected to increase. The consumption is weak after the festival. One can continue to hold short positions and look for opportunities to add short positions on rebounds [74][75]. Corn and Starch - On the previous trading day, corn and starch futures rose. The price of corn is affected by the price of soybeans. The new - season corn harvest is almost completed, and the inventory of the northern port is expected to increase. The demand for corn is growing slightly, and the price may be under pressure. The demand for starch has improved slightly, and it may follow the corn market [76][77][78].

AI 可能是美国长期衰落的导火索 20251101 摘要 美国通过财政扩张和转移支付刺激需求，推高劳动力价格，形成贸易逆 差，但维持了过去百年的经济模式。全球化失衡使利润流向美国，但依 赖债务扩张的模式难以为继，美元信用面临挑战。 AI 技术发展呈现劳动力替代效应强于需求推动效应的特点，美国难以有 效刺激需求。资本周期驱动 AI 估值上升，但过度依赖债务可能导致利率 成本和通胀压力增加，加剧商品通胀。 美国推动 AI 发展面临多重挑战，包括债务驱动带来的成本和通胀压力、 AI 对劳动力需求的收缩效应、传统能源和基础设施成本攀升，以及全球 利润分配失衡。 中国 AI 发展策略稳健，侧重 B 端业务和宏观经济稳定，地方政府积极推 进但整体思路渐进。与美国激进的 C 端模式形成对比，反映两国对风险 控制和资源配置的不同考量。 逆全球化趋势使技术难以全球化，中美科技合作竞争复杂化。中国对美 国全球化贡献减弱，美国债务扩张能力受限，难以控制全球需求和推动 技术殖民。 Q&A 美国的繁荣本质是什么？ 美国的繁荣本质是全球化的成功，即全球利润分配机制使美国能够赚取大量利 润，并维持全球需求扩张。美国通过获得全球利润来增强美 ...