重要信息点评 1、海关总署发布数据显示，2025年前11个月，我国货物贸易进出口总值41.21万亿元人民币，同比增长 3.6%。其中，出口24.46万亿元，增长6.2%；进口16.75万亿元，增长0.2%。11月份，我国货物贸易增速 回升，进出口总值3.9万亿元，增长4.1%。其中，出口2.35万亿元，增长5.7%；进口1.55万亿元，增长 1.7%。 2、美联储货币政策委员会FOMC会后公布，降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至3.50%– 3.75%。这是美联储继9月17日、10月29日降息后年内的第三次降息，幅度均为25个基点。会议投票为9 票赞成、3票反对，部分委员主张维持利率不变或更大降幅。会议声明指出经济温和扩张，就业增长放 缓、失业率小幅上升，通胀仍处高位，委员会关注双重使命的双向风险。为维持银行体系流动性充足， 自12月12日起启动每月约400亿美元的短期国债购买计划。美联储点阵图预测显示在2026年和2027年各 有一次25个基点的降息。 3、美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上表示，货币政策无预设路径，将逐次会议依据数据决策。通胀仍 偏高，但非关税驱动的核心通胀已显著改善，若无新关税，商 ...

后面几年，管浩阳从钢铁出发，把能力圈逐步拓展到建筑、建材、有色、化工、煤炭等多个行业，用九 年的深耕形成了全周期品的研究图谱，也担当起西部利得基金研究部周期组组长。 他坦言，尽管周期行业同属大类资产，但不同子行业间的壁垒极高。比如钢铁是典型的国内周期，关注 点集中在政策与需求，而有色则是海外周期主导，比如铜、铝的价格更多受全球供需影响。此外，有色 行业细分品类众多，贵金属、工业金属、能源金属的逻辑差异巨大，这种跨领域的研究，既是对能力的 考验，也是对耐心的磨练。 而此次他拟管的西部利得资源鑫选混合，是他在深耕了九年周期股研究后，担任基金经理的第一只产 品。 西部利得基金/供图 当逆全球化风潮愈演愈烈，资源品的战略重要性正在得到市场共识。 2020年以来，一场从煤炭到黄金，再到铜、银、稀土等资源品的大宗商品行情迅速扩散，资源股投资重 回投资者视野。近日，证券时报记者专访了西部利得基金新任基金经理管浩阳，从研究员到即将掌舵新 基金西部利得资源鑫选混合，他正将历经九年打磨的周期股研究框架投入实战。 在管浩阳看来，当前时点投资资源股，供给比需求重要，贝塔比个股重要。这场已经启动五年的大宗商 品行情可能仍有机会，资源品 ...

据上观新闻报道，两名知情人士近期向美媒披露的消息，让美国政坛与商界的交叉地带再起波澜——世 界首富马斯克已重启对共和党的资金输送，目标直指2026年中期选举，全力为特朗普站台助力共和党巩 固国会主导权。这笔捐款的具体金额要等到明年1月竞选财务报告公布才能见光，消息人士只撂下一 句"绝对是一笔巨款"，还透露整个选举周期里，资金支持会像"水龙头"一样源源不断，架势比2024年大 选时的投入只多不少。 编辑 很多人好奇，马斯克此番携巨款回归，真的是重续兄弟情，甚至想重走仕途？答案显然是否定的。欧盟 对X平台及他本人施加巨额罚款的经历，让这位世界首富彻底明白，没有政治身份傍身，再庞大的商业 帝国也如同待宰的羔羊。他的核心诉求从来都是商业利益，特斯拉需要共和党掌控的国会提供减税、松 绑监管的政策支持，SpaceX的太空项目更离不开国会拨款与政府合作，这些都是他砸下巨款的核心动 因。与副总统万斯建立的牢固私人关系，加上对"伟大12年"的预判，本质是为自己的商业帝国提前布局 未来12年的发展环境。 对特朗普来说，马斯克的回归更是及时雨。2026年中期选举要保住国会控制权，离不开马斯克的"钞能 力"和X平台的流量影响力。更关 ...

大家好，今天犀哥这篇财经评论，主要来聊聊12月18日的海南封关。现在经济逆全球化的风气越来越 盛，不少国家都在搞贸易保护，要么加关税，要么限制跨境流动，说白了就是想把自己裹起来避险。 回头看看咱们改革开放这四十多年，其实有个规律特别明显：每次时代有大转折，总有一块地方靠开放 政策起来。 最早是深圳特区敢闯敢试，拉开了开放的架势；然后是香港，凭着自由港的优势，成了内地跟全球对接 的金融枢纽。 再后来长三角、粤港澳大湾区靠协同开放，经济一路往上走，就连现在的新疆，也借着"一带一路"的东 风，成了向西开放的前沿。 就在这节骨眼上，咱们国家定了2025年12月18日，让海南全岛开始封关运作，这对国家有什么好处？对 普通人又有哪些机遇？ 逆全球化里，海南封关到底啥意思 其实不用等太久，封关带来的好处，早就渗透到咱们日常生活的方方面面了，不管是出门、花钱，还是 找工作，都能沾上边。 最直观的就是出门更方便了，现在政策已经明确了，全球85个国家的人，免签就能进海南，不用办那些 繁琐的签证手续，说走就走。 海南这次封关，不是凭空冒出来的政策，是咱们国家开放逻辑的延续，更是新形势下搞制度型开放的新 尝试。 海南封关的价值，远不 ...

以下文章来源于CFC商品策略研究 ，作者田亚雄 CFC商品策略研究 . 好的研报应该提供打破经验，观念，陈规或惯例的视角，提供自我逻辑审查的意识自觉。阅读体验应该是一次历险， 也许是一次漂流，它并不把你带到任何一个安全的港湾去，但更像是提供一种类似在悬崖边临渊回眸，另做选择的逻 辑启发，或自我反讽的邀请。 文 | 田亚雄 来源 | CFC商品策略研究 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 长期上，我们试图构建了一个宏大的历史对比框架，将当下的财政、技术与地缘政治特征与1970年代 的"滞胀"商品牛市进行类比。全球债券的整体熊市仍在继续，尤其是长期债券价格再创新低，奥地利 100年期债券价格创下新低(自2020年3月峰值以来下跌76%)，这暗示对于长期的生产率提升仍充满分 歧。那么美国政府怎么解决高利率难题呢？市场把希望寄托在两个地方： 1-科技进步大幅提高效率，这样经济能在不引发通胀的情况下增长，利率自然可以降低。 本报告将未来商品驱动主引擎明确置于海外，特别是美国的"大财政"周期与AI资本开支。报告指出，美 国通过一系列产业法案实施的财政刺激力度是二战以来罕见的，这种"高财政驱动、高利率、相对高增 长"的 ...

Core Insights - The closure of Hainan Island marks the beginning of a new phase for high-quality development, transforming its role in domestic and international dual circulation and establishing it as a "testing ground" for institutional innovation and an "outpost" for openness [1][3] Economic Impact - The closure accelerates industrial upgrades in Hainan, with policies like "zero tariffs," "dual 15% low tax rates," and "processing and value-added tax exemptions" attracting high-tech industries, modern services, and high-end manufacturing [1] - The tourism sector is evolving from traditional sightseeing to high-end vacationing, medical tourism, and duty-free shopping, supported by a visa-free policy for 85 countries and 6,600 duty-free products, which constitute 74% of all imported goods [1] - Modern service industries such as cross-border finance, international exhibitions, and logistics are experiencing explosive growth, with the expansion of EF account holders facilitating cross-border capital flow and positioning Hainan as a "settlement center" for cross-border trade [1] - Industries like biomedicine, digital economy, and new energy are leveraging cost advantages to create a closed loop of "R&D + manufacturing + export," fostering new productive forces in Hainan [1] Institutional Innovation - Hainan is becoming a "testing ground" for aligning with high-level international trade rules, with the implementation of a sales tax system that simplifies tax processes by merging multiple tax types, significantly reducing compliance costs [2] - A smart regulatory system based on credit and big data analysis balances convenience and control, ensuring effective management while facilitating openness [2] - The introduction and continuous reduction of the first national negative list for cross-border service trade will enhance Hainan's service industry management standards and intellectual property protection, accumulating experience for China's institutional opening [2] Regional Positioning - Hainan serves as a "key intersection" for domestic and international dual circulation, facilitating easier access for global goods, capital, and talent into China, while also enabling domestic products and capacities to reach the world [2] - The island's zero-tariff products and high-end services cater to domestic high-end consumption needs, promoting the integration of domestic and international rules and exploring new paths for developing two markets and two types of resources [2] Global Significance - Hainan's closure sends a strong signal of China's commitment to expanding openness amid rising "anti-globalization" sentiments, positioning the island as a model for a global open economy and providing a "Chinese solution" for supply chain optimization and trade facilitation in the Asia-Pacific region [3] - The official launch of Hainan's closure on December 18 is viewed as a new starting point, indicating profound changes in consumption experiences, industrial structures, and ongoing breakthroughs in institutional innovation [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening. The bond market is under pressure, and caution is advised; the stock index is expected to gradually move up, and it's advisable to go long at an appropriate time; precious metals are expected to continue rising, and investors can wait for opportunities to go long; steel products are likely to remain weak, and investors can short at high levels; iron ore may experience a correction, and short - selling at high levels is recommended; coking coal and coke may stop falling and stabilize, and investors can consider buying at low levels; ferroalloys may be considered for low - level long positions after losses in the spot market widen; crude oil and fuel oil are recommended for temporary observation; polyolefins can be considered for long positions; synthetic and natural rubber are expected to fluctuate; PVC requires attention to supply - side changes; urea has limited downside space; PX and PTA may fluctuate and adjust, and attention should be paid to oil price changes; ethylene glycol may maintain bottom - range fluctuations, and attention should be paid to port inventory and supply changes; short - fiber may fluctuate with costs; bottle chips are expected to follow cost - side fluctuations; lithium carbonate is in a situation of both supply and demand boom; copper may have a technical correction risk; aluminum may continue to fluctuate at a high level; zinc should be chased with caution; lead may continue to fluctuate; tin may fluctuate strongly; nickel may fluctuate; soybean oil and meal can be considered for long positions in the low - cost support range; palm oil and rapeseed meal and oil are recommended for temporary observation; cotton is expected to run strongly; sugar is expected to run weakly and fluctuate; apples are expected to run strongly; pigs can be considered for observation; eggs are recommended for temporary observation; corn and starch may follow the corn market trend [6][10][12][15][17][20][23][25][28][30][32][34][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43][45][46][48][50][51][53][55][58][62][66][67][71][73][77] Summary by Related Catalogs Bonds - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, bond futures closed up across the board, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rising 0.63%, 0.10%, 0.06%, and 0.01% respectively. The central bank conducted 46.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 143 billion yuan on the day. From January to November, national general public budget revenue increased by 0.8% year - on - year; expenditure increased by 1.4% year - on - year [5] - **Outlook**: The bond market is under pressure, and caution is advised [6][7] Stock Index - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures changed by 1.86%, 1.43%, 2.02%, and 1.54% respectively [8] - **Outlook**: The stock index is expected to gradually move up, and it's advisable to go long at an appropriate time [10][11] Precious Metals - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, the gold main contract rose 0.85%, and the silver main contract rose 5.77%. The Fed may cut interest rates, and the global trade and financial environment is complex [12] - **Outlook**: Precious metals are expected to continue rising, and investors can wait for opportunities to go long [12][13] Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuated weakly. The spot price of Tangshan billet is 2,950 yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar is 3,150 - 3,280 yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil is 3,250 - 3,270 yuan/ton [14] - **Outlook**: The price of rebar may remain weak in the medium term, and hot - rolled coil may follow a similar trend. Investors can short at high levels [15] Iron Ore - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, iron ore futures rebounded slightly. The spot price of PB powder is 784 yuan/ton, and super - special powder is 675 yuan/ton. Since October, national hot - metal daily output has declined, and port inventory has increased [17] - **Outlook**: The iron ore market supply - demand pattern is weak, and it may experience a correction. Investors can short at high levels [17] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fell slightly. Since December, domestic coking coal production has decreased, and downstream demand is weak. The second - round price cut of coke spot purchases has landed [19] - **Outlook**: Coking coal and coke futures may stop falling and stabilize, but the medium - term weakness has not reversed. Investors can consider buying at low levels [20] Ferroalloys - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, the manganese - silicon main contract rose 0.16%, and the silicon - iron main contract rose 1.06%. Manganese ore supply is tight, and the cost is rising. The production of ferroalloys is declining, and the demand is weak [22] - **Outlook**: Ferroalloys are in an overall oversupply situation. After losses in the spot market widen, low - level long positions can be considered [23] Crude Oil - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, INE crude oil rebounded after hitting the bottom. The US sanctions on Venezuelan oil tankers and CFTC data show that funds are bearish on the future of crude oil [24][25] - **Outlook**: The trend of crude oil is uncertain, and the main contract is recommended for temporary observation [25][26] Fuel Oil - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, fuel oil fluctuated upward. Singapore's fuel oil inventory has reached a 13 - week high due to increased imports and weak consumption [27] - **Outlook**: The fuel oil price is under pressure, and the main contract is recommended for temporary observation [28] Polyolefins - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, the Hangzhou PP market declined, and the Yuyao LLDPE price fell. The market supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is weak [29] - **Outlook**: The polyolefin fundamentals are weak, and investors can consider long positions [29][30] Synthetic Rubber - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract rose 2.81%. The cost is supported, and the supply has slightly increased. The tire demand is slow [31] - **Outlook**: Synthetic rubber is expected to fluctuate [31][32] Natural Rubber - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, the natural rubber main contract rose 1.42%, and the 20 - number rubber main contract rose 1.53%. The supply is affected by overseas conflicts, and the demand is slow. The inventory is increasing [32] - **Outlook**: Natural rubber is expected to fluctuate [32][33] PVC - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, the PVC main contract rose 1.17%. The supply exceeds demand, the device utilization rate has decreased, and the demand has declined [34] - **Outlook**: Pay attention to the supply - side changes of PVC [34] Urea - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, the urea main contract rose 1.29%. The daily output is expected to fluctuate slightly, the industrial demand is strong, and the agricultural demand is weak [35] - **Outlook**: The downside space of urea is limited [35][36] PX - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, the PX2603 main contract rose 0.47%. The PX load has declined slightly, and the short - process profit has improved [37] - **Outlook**: PX may fluctuate and adjust, and attention should be paid to oil price changes [37] PTA - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, the PTA2605 main contract rose 0.3%. The PTA load is 73.7%, the polyester load is 91.2%, and the processing fee has recovered [38] - **Outlook**: PTA may fluctuate, and attention should be paid to oil price changes [38] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract rose 0.67%. The overall start - up load has decreased, the port inventory has increased, and the demand has weakened [39] - **Outlook**: Ethylene glycol may maintain bottom - range fluctuations, and attention should be paid to port inventory and supply changes [39] Short - Fiber - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, the short - fiber 2602 main contract rose 0.43%. The device load has decreased, the demand has changed little, and the inventory is stable [40] - **Outlook**: Short - fiber may fluctuate with costs, and attention should be paid to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [40] Bottle Chips - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, the bottle chips 2603 main contract rose 0.28%. The processing fee is 500 yuan/ton, the load has slightly decreased, and the export growth has slowed down [41] - **Outlook**: Bottle chips are expected to follow cost - side fluctuations [41] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, the main contract rose 7.6%. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is strong. The inventory is gradually decreasing [42] - **Outlook**: Lithium carbonate is in a situation of both supply and demand boom [42] Copper - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai copper main contract rose 0.51%. The global copper concentrate supply - demand imbalance is intensified, the production has recovered, but the terminal procurement has weakened [43] - **Outlook**: Copper may have a technical correction risk [43][44] Aluminum - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai aluminum main contract rose 0.75%, and the alumina main contract rose 0.9%. Alumina supply exceeds demand, and electrolytic aluminum supply is constrained. The inventory has decreased [45] - **Outlook**: Aluminum may continue to fluctuate at a high level [45][46] Zinc - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc main contract rose 0.59%. The refined zinc production has decreased, the consumption has entered the off - season, and the inventory has decreased [46] - **Outlook**: Chase zinc with caution [46][47] Lead - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai lead main contract rose 0.33%. The supply has shrunk, the demand is weak, and the inventory has decreased [48] - **Outlook**: Lead may continue to fluctuate [48] Tin - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, the main contract rose 2.84%. The supply is tight, and the demand has certain resilience. The inventory has decreased [49][50] - **Outlook**: Tin may fluctuate strongly [50] Nickel - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, the main contract rose 0.51%. The nickel ore price is stable, the downstream demand is weak, and the inventory is at a relatively high level [51] - **Outlook**: Nickel may fluctuate [51] Soybean Oil and Meal - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, the soybean meal main contract fell 0.45%, and the soybean oil main contract fell 0.89%. The Brazilian soybean planting progress is slightly slower, the oil - mill crushing is at a high level, and the inventory pressure is still large [52] - **Outlook**: Soybean oil and meal can be considered for long positions in the low - cost support range [53] Palm Oil - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, the palm oil night session strengthened. The US sanctions on Venezuelan oil tankers, the Indian inventory has decreased, and the Malaysian exports have declined [54] - **Outlook**: Palm oil is recommended for temporary observation [55] Rapeseed Meal and Oil - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, the rapeseed price fell. The US biofuel blending decision is postponed, the domestic import volume has changed, and the inventory is in the middle or high level of the past seven years [56][57] - **Outlook**: Rapeseed meal and oil are recommended for temporary observation [58] Cotton - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, domestic cotton futures fell slightly, and overseas cotton rebounded slightly. The 2026 Xinjiang cotton planting area will be reduced by more than 10%. The global cotton inventory has increased, and the textile and clothing exports are relatively stable [59][60][61] - **Outlook**: Cotton is expected to run strongly [62] Sugar - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated weakly, and overseas raw sugar fell. Brazilian sugar production has decreased, Indian sugar production has increased, and the domestic new sugar supply pressure is increasing [63][64][65] - **Outlook**: Sugar is expected to run weakly and fluctuate [66] Apples - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, domestic apple futures rebounded slightly. The current inventory is at a low level in recent years, and the new - season apple production and quality have declined [67] - **Outlook**: Apples are expected to run strongly [68] Pigs - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, the national average pig price rose. The consumption is improving, the supply is expected to increase, and the cost is fluctuating at a low level [69][70][71] - **Outlook**: Observe the follow - up consumption changes and consider waiting and seeing [71] Eggs - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, the main - producing area egg price was flat, and the main - selling area egg price was flat. The egg - laying hen inventory is at a high level, the cost is rising, and the profit is low [72] - **Outlook**: Eggs are recommended for temporary observation [73] Corn and Starch - **Market Conditions**: The previous trading day, the corn main contract fell 0.14%, and the corn starch main contract rose 0.12%. The northern port inventory may accumulate, the demand is growing slightly, and the corn starch inventory is at a high level [74][75][76] - **Outlook**: Corn and starch may follow the corn market trend [77]

转自：新华财经 •申银万国期货：降息和技术性扩表结合有助于改善市场流动性 贵金属长期上行趋势不改 •南华期货表示，目前白银市场仍受益于需求韧性以及供给约束和流通库存紧张影响而呈现多挤空现 象。消息面，美联储理事沃勒表示，仍有50至100个基点的降息空间，没有必要急于降息。周内主要关 注周五日本央行利率决议。年底关注新一任美联储主席的任命与经济数据对美联储货币政策预期的影 响。此外，进入12月下半旬，COMEX合约12月份交割挤兑压力可能减弱，关注白银挤兑交易引发的暴 涨后的调整压力。估值上关注美元指数变化，其中涉及欧元及日元等相对货币强弱。远端宏观上，美联 储在价格与数据工具上的货币政策，经贸地缘与金融市场不确定避险等仍是关注焦点。需求上，关注去 美元化趋势下的央行购金，以及投资需求增长前景。此外也需关注逆全球化以及贸易保护下的关键资源 需求和关税政策等问题。 •南华期货：关注白银挤兑交易引发的暴涨后的调整压力 •东证期货表示，金价震荡收涨白银大涨，油价上涨推动贵金属再度走强，海外市场风险偏好实际降 温，美联储鹰派官员博斯蒂克发表讲话强调通胀风险高于就业市场风险，短期内美联储降息预期不强， 市场缺乏增量刺激。 ...

12月17日， 受美国就业数据疲软、美联储降息预期重燃以及地缘局势升级等多重因素合力推动，黄 金、白银、铜等贵金属全线走高，COMEX黄金期货价格一度突破4380美元，银价再度刷新历史新高记 录，截至收盘，COMEX黄金期货涨0.90%报4371.40美元/盎司，黄金ETF华夏(518850)涨0.76%，黄金股 ETF(159562)涨2.27%。 西南期货分析指出，当前全球贸易金融环境错综复杂，"逆全球化"和"去美元化"大趋势，利好黄金的配 置价值和避险价值。各国央行的购金行为对黄金走势也形成了支撑。美国劳动力市场进一步放缓，美联 储有望持续降息，也利好贵金属。因此，贵金属有望延续上涨趋势，可暂且观望，等待做多机会。 消息面上，今日美联储理事沃勒表态，就业市场非常疲软，当前的就业人数增长并不理想，美联储降息 有助于就业市场；2026年可能成为经济表现更好的一年，希望这有助于就业市场；通胀高于目标，但未 来几个月应会下降；通胀预期已得到锚定；美国就业增长接近于零，尚不清楚人工智能将对就业市场产 生何种影响。 ...

12月17日， 受美国就业数据疲软、美联储降息预期重燃以及地缘局势升级等多重因素合力推动，黄 金、白银、铜等贵金属全线走高，COMEX黄金期货价格一度突破4380美元，银价再度刷新历史新高记 录，截至收盘，COMEX黄金期货涨0.90%报4371.40美元/盎司，黄金ETF华夏(518850)涨0.76%，黄金股 ETF(159562)涨2.27%。 每日经济新闻 消息面上，今日美联储理事沃勒表态，就业市场非常疲软，当前的就业人数增长并不理想，美联储降息 有助于就业市场；2026年可能成为经济表现更好的一年，希望这有助于就业市场；通胀高于目标，但未 来几个月应会下降；通胀预期已得到锚定；美国就业增长接近于零，尚不清楚人工智能将对就业市场产 生何种影响。 西南期货分析指出，当前全球贸易金融环境错综复杂，"逆全球化"和"去美元化"大趋势，利好黄金的配 置价值和避险价值。各国央行的购金行为对黄金走势也形成了支撑。美国劳动力市场进一步放缓，美联 储有望持续降息，也利好贵金属。因此，贵金属有望延续上涨趋势，可暂且观望，等待做多机会。 ...