Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Gold**: The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in an upward channel, possibly near the end of the trend. Last week, the cooling of US inflation strengthened the expectation of interest rate cuts, leading to a double - drop in the US dollar index and US Treasury yields. The attack on a nuclear facility in Iran boosted safe - haven demand, and central bank gold purchases and ETF inflows jointly boosted the gold price. This week, focus on the Fed's interest - rate meeting and retail data. Geopolitical risks may push up the gold price, and it is expected to maintain high - level volatility. The medium - term upward trend remains unchanged, but be vigilant against the impact of hawkish statements from the Fed or better - than - expected economic data [7]. - **Silver**: The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is in an upward channel, and it may be close to the end of the trend. Safe - haven demand pushed the silver price to a 13 - year high, but the game of Fed policies led to profit - taking, resulting in high - level volatility throughout the week. The strong industrial attribute (surge in photovoltaic demand and repair of the gold - silver ratio), combined with the weakening US dollar, magnifies the volatility. Next week, focus on the Fed's interest - rate meeting and US economic data. Geopolitical risks and industrial supply gaps support a relatively strong oscillation. Be vigilant against policy reversals and the pressure of long - position profit - taking. The logic of catch - up growth remains unchanged, but the volatility intensifies [34]. 3. Summary by Directory Gold Futures - **Mid - term Market Analysis** - **Trend Judgment**: The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in an upward channel, possibly near the end of the trend [7]. - **Trend Logic**: Last week, US inflation cooling, geopolitical events, central bank purchases, and ETF inflows boosted the gold price. This week, focus on the Fed's meeting and data. Geopolitical risks may push up the price, but beware of Fed's hawkish statements and strong economic data [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: It was expected that the main gold contract 2508 would fluctuate in the short term, and it was recommended to wait and see. The lower support was 738 - 746, and the upper pressure was 800 - 808 [11]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: It is expected that the main gold contract 2508 will mainly fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see. The lower support is 774 - 782, and the upper pressure is 800 - 808 [12]. - **Related Data Situation** - Data on Shanghai Gold and COMEX gold price trends, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury yield, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai Gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference are presented in graphical form [20][22][24] Silver Futures - **Mid - term Market Analysis** - **Trend Judgment**: The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is in an upward channel, possibly near the end of the trend [34]. - **Trend Logic**: Safe - haven demand pushed the silver price to a 13 - year high, but Fed policy games led to profit - taking. Strong industrial attributes and a weak US dollar magnify volatility. Next week, focus on the Fed's meeting and economic data. Geopolitical risks and industrial gaps support a relatively strong oscillation. Be vigilant against policy reversals and profit - taking pressure [34]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see [35]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: It was expected that the silver contract 2508 would run strongly, with the lower support range at 8300 - 8500 and the upper pressure at 8900 - 9000 [37]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: It is expected that the silver contract 2508 will run strongly, with the lower support range at 8600 - 8800 [37]. - **Related Data Situation** - Data on Shanghai Silver and COMEX silver price trends, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai Silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference are presented in graphical form [44][46][49]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a short - term bearish rating on zinc, with a trend strength of - 1, indicating a weak bearish outlook [1]. 2. Report's Core View - The zinc market is expected to experience a short - term decline, influenced by factors such as the cooling of US inflation and changes in employment data [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract was 22,085 yuan/ton, down 0.25%, and the LME zinc 3M electronic trading closed at 2,651 dollars/ton, down 0.28% [1]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract was 118,688 lots, down 51,539 lots; the LME zinc trading volume was 9,627 lots, up 2,500 lots. The open interest of SHFE zinc main contract was 121,089 lots, down 4,690 lots; the LME zinc open interest was 206,632 lots, down 1,890 lots [1]. - **Premium and Discount**: Shanghai 0 zinc premium was 260 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton; LME CASH - 3M discount was - 32.08 dollars/ton, up 0.97 dollars/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc futures inventory was 5,133 tons, up 2,058 tons; LME zinc inventory was 132,025 tons, down 550 tons [1]. 3.2 News - After the CPI data, US PPI inflation also cooled. In May, the core PPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month, lower than expected, and the growth rate hit a new low in nearly a year, which led to an increase in the expectation of two interest rate cuts by the Fed this year. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was slightly higher than expected, and the number of continuing claims soared to the highest level since the end of 2021 [1].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that despite positive signals from recent trade negotiations, gold prices have risen, reflecting market sensitivity to inflation and policy changes [1][3] - The immediate driver for the increase in gold prices is attributed to the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from the U.S., which showed a lower-than-expected month-on-month increase of 0.1% in May, leading to heightened expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [3] - The current macroeconomic environment highlights the critical impact of interest rate policies on the gold market, with low inflation data reducing U.S. Treasury yield expectations and pressuring the dollar index, thereby providing upward momentum for non-yielding assets like gold [3] Group 2 - The overall performance of precious metals shows platinum rising by 2.9% to a new high since 2021, and palladium increasing by 1.3%, indicating that the entire precious metals sector is benefiting from the combination of "cooling inflation and rate cut expectations" [3] - In contrast, spot silver experienced a slight decline of 1.2%, likely due to its stronger industrial characteristics and sensitivity to global trade prospects, reflecting market divergence in economic recovery assessments [3] - Gold prices are currently operating within a technical and emotional resonance zone, with bullish sentiment prevailing but facing resistance from previous high levels [4]

Price Trends - Domestic gold prices continue to rise, with an overall increase of 11 CNY per gram, and the highest price reported by Chow Sang Sang at 1020 CNY per gram [1][4] - The price difference among various gold retailers has widened to 51 CNY per gram, indicating a growing disparity in pricing [1] Gold Retail Prices - The latest gold prices from major retailers are as follows: - Lao Miao: 1013 CNY per gram, up by 10 CNY - Liufuk: 1017 CNY per gram, up by 11 CNY - Chow Tai Fook: 1017 CNY per gram, up by 11 CNY - Zhou Liufu: 997 CNY per gram, up by 11 CNY - Jin Zun: 1017 CNY per gram, up by 11 CNY - Lao Feng Xiang: 1016 CNY per gram, up by 10 CNY - Chao Hong Ji: 1017 CNY per gram, up by 11 CNY - Cai Bai: 990 CNY per gram, up by 5 CNY - Shanghai China Gold: 969 CNY per gram, unchanged [1][3][4] Platinum Prices - Platinum prices have also seen an increase, with Chow Sang Sang reporting a rise of 16 CNY per gram, now priced at 512 CNY per gram [4] Gold Recovery Prices - The gold recovery prices have increased by 7.6 CNY per gram, with the following recovery prices noted: - Chow Sang Sang: 767.10 CNY per gram - Chow Tai Fook: 770.50 CNY per gram - Lao Feng Xiang: 776.10 CNY per gram - Cai Bai: 768.40 CNY per gram [4][5][6] International Gold Market - The spot gold price reached a peak of 3360.44 USD per ounce, closing at 3355.02 USD per ounce, reflecting a 0.95% increase [8] - As of the latest update, spot gold is trading at 3370.58 USD per ounce, with a 0.46% increase [8] - Geopolitical tensions and weak U.S. economic data are contributing to rising gold prices, with market participants showing increased risk aversion [8]

Core Viewpoint - Australian consumer confidence has slightly increased due to low interest rates and cooling inflation, despite slow economic growth and ongoing trade tensions, leaving households in a cautious state [1] Group 1: Consumer Confidence Index - The consumer confidence index rose by 0.5% to 92.6 points, although it remains below the neutral line of 100 [1] - Overall consumer sentiment remains in a "cautiously pessimistic" state according to Westpac's macroeconomic forecast head, Matthew Hassan [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The Reserve Bank of Australia lowered interest rates to 3.85%, marking a two-year low [1] - Recent data indicates slow economic growth expected in the first three months of 2025, with the RBA anticipating a recovery in household spending to drive economic acceleration later this year [1] Group 3: Consumer Behavior - The most promising improvement noted this month is in consumer attitudes towards purchasing commodities, which reflects the impact of cost-of-living pressures on consumers [1] - The average index for commodity purchases over the past three years is 40 percentage points lower than the historical average [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain stable interest rates is justified by the slow cooling of inflation, indicating a cautious approach in the face of economic uncertainty [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve may face a scenario where both inflation and unemployment rates rise simultaneously, highlighting the complexity of the current economic landscape [1] - In light of uncertainty, the Federal Reserve must wait to observe the next steps in policy measures before making further decisions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The strong economic growth in Switzerland during the first quarter of the year reduces the likelihood of the Swiss National Bank lowering interest rates into negative territory after a potential cut to zero [1] Economic Growth - Switzerland's GDP grew by 0.7% in the first quarter, marking the fastest growth since the beginning of 2023 [1] - This growth is not attributed to pre-tariff stockpiling behaviors seen in Ireland and other European countries, as indicated by the Swiss National Bank's data showing a narrowing trade surplus in January and February [1] Future Outlook - Despite the current growth, there are concerns that trade uncertainties may slow down growth in the future, although it is expected to remain stronger than that of peers [1] - The cooling of inflation, along with increased household spending and real income, is anticipated to provide support for the economy [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Alumina, Aluminium, Tin, PTA, Short - fiber [1] - **Bearish**: Zinc, Manganese Ore, Coke, Coking Coal, Natural Rubber Latex From New Zealand, Crude Oil [1] - **Oscillating**: Equity Index, Gold, Copper, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Silicon Iron, Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Printing, Soda Ash, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Cotton, Bean Meal, Pulp, Fuel Oil, Bitumen, BR Rubber, Methanol, PE, PP, PVC, Caustic Soda [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The results of the Sino - US trade talks exceeded market expectations, which improved market risk appetite and had a positive impact on multiple varieties, but short - term operations still need to be cautious [1]. - The weak economy and asset shortage are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning restricts the upward space [1]. - The long - term upward logic of gold remains unchanged, while silver may be more resilient in the short term due to potential tariff impacts [1]. 3. Summary by Industry Macro - finance - **Equity Index**: Yesterday, large - cap stocks led the rise. Observe whether small and medium - cap stocks can achieve resonance and make up for the rise. In a structural market, long - position investors should be cautious [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning restricts the upward space [1]. - **Gold**: The short - term gold price may enter a consolidation phase, but the long - term upward logic remains unchanged [1]. - **Silver**: Generally follows gold. Unexpected tariff results will benefit the commodity attribute of silver, so the short - term silver price may be more resilient than gold [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The joint statement of the Sino - US trade negotiations exceeded market expectations, which is positive for copper prices. However, the copper price has rebounded significantly recently, so be cautious about chasing high in the short term [1]. - **Aluminium and Alumina**: Aluminium prices continue to rebound. Alumina supply has increased, the supply - demand pattern has improved, and the short - term price may further rebound [1]. - **Zinc**: Terminal demand has weakened significantly in the off - season, and the inflow of imported goods has weakened the fundamentals. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities [1]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The US inflation cooled more than expected, and the Sino - US talks results exceeded expectations. The Indonesian resource tax policy has been implemented, and there are rumors of a mining ban in the Philippines. Nickel prices will oscillate in the short term, and there is still pressure from long - term excess of primary nickel. Stainless steel futures will oscillate and rebound in the short term, but there is still supply pressure in the long term [1]. - **Tin**: With the improvement of macro - sentiment, tin prices are expected to rebound. Continuously pay attention to the resumption of production in low - grade mines [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply is strengthening, demand is weakening, it has entered a low - valuation range, and the demand and inventory pressure have not been alleviated [1]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The number of registered warehouse receipts is extremely small, and the willingness to register warehouse receipts is low due to the futures discounting the spot [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply has not further shrunk, inventory has continued to accumulate, and downstream buyers still maintain rigid demand purchases [1]. Ferrous Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: They are in the window period of switching from the peak season to the off - season. The cost is loose, the supply - demand pattern is loose, and the driving force for price rebound is insufficient [1]. - **Iron Ore**: There is an expectation that pig iron production will peak, and pay attention to the pressure on steel products [1]. - **Manganese Ore**: There is still an expectation of decline due to the expected excess of manganese ore, and the pressure of warehouse receipts is heavy [1]. - **Silicon Iron**: The cost is dragged down by thermal coal, but the production reduction in the production area is large, and the supply - demand has become tight [1]. - **Printing**: The supply - demand is weak, and with the arrival of the rainy season, there are concerns about weakening demand, and the price will continue to be weak [1]. - **Soda Ash**: There are many maintenance operations in May, and the direct demand is okay, but there is excess supply in the medium term, and the price is under pressure [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply - demand is relatively excessive, and they are short - allocated in the sector. Consider participating in the JM9 - 1 positive spread [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil and Soybean Oil**: The rise of crude oil and US biodiesel news drove the rise of palm oil. The Sino - US talks may drag down the soybean - palm oil price spread. After the crude oil price falls, consider short - selling palm oil. The Sino - US talks are expected to be negative for soybean oil in terms of sentiment, and it is recommended to wait and see for single - side operations [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The northern rapeseed - producing areas in Europe are still dry, which is not conducive to the formation of rapeseed yield per unit. The Sino - Canadian relationship is still uncertain. If Canada cancels the additional tariffs on China, it may lead to a large decline. Consider buying volatility [1]. - **Cotton**: In the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums for US cotton. In the long term, macro - uncertainty is still strong. The domestic cotton textile industry has entered the off - season, and downstream inventories are starting to accumulate. It is expected that the domestic cotton price will maintain a weak oscillating trend [1]. - **Sugar**: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high. If crude oil continues to be weak, it may affect the sugar - making ratio and lead to higher - than - expected sugar production [1]. - **Corn**: The spot price increase has slowed down, and the import corn auction has a negative impact on sentiment. The port inventory has decreased but is still at a high level. It is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to the CO7 - C01 positive spread [1]. - **Bean Meal**: There is no driving force for speculation in US soybean planting. The domestic market is still digesting the pressure of spot and Brazilian selling, and the futures price is expected to oscillate [1]. - **Pulp**: After the positive impact of the Sino - US trade negotiations on pulp futures is realized, the fundamentals still lack upward momentum, and it is expected to oscillate [1]. - **Natural Rubber Latex From New Zealand**: The shipping volume from New Zealand has decreased, the terminal demand is still weak, and the overall bearish pattern remains unchanged. It is recommended to short after a rebound [1]. - **Live Pigs**: The pig inventory is continuously recovering, the slaughter weight is increasing, and the breeding profit is generally good. The futures price is at a large discount to the spot price. Pay attention to the pace of future production capacity release and wait for spot price guidance [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil, Fuel Oil**: The results of the Sino - US trade negotiations exceeded market expectations, reducing concerns about weakening demand. There is a demand for rebound and repair after the previous sharp decline [1]. - **Bitumen**: The cost is dragging down, the inventory accumulation slope has decreased, and the demand is slowly recovering [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The tariff negotiation is beneficial, and the cost is strongly supported. It will be strong in the short term, but there is a risk of price decline in the long term due to loose fundamentals and weak demand [1]. - **PTA**: The PX device is under intensive maintenance, the procurement demand for PX has increased, and the high load of polyester has supported the demand for PTA [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene glycol device is under maintenance, large - scale devices in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have reduced their loads, the basis has dropped rapidly, and market sentiment has subsided [1]. - **Short - fiber**: The slightly tight situation of PTA strengthens the cost support for short - fiber, and short - fiber performs strongly under the high - basis situation [1]. - **Styrene**: The improvement of Sino - US tariff policies has stimulated market speculative demand, the pure benzene price has gradually strengthened, and the downstream demand for styrene is expected to pick up [1]. - **Urea**: There are still positive expectations in the market, the downstream follow - up is okay, and the market negotiation focus has risen. However, due to price stability policies, the upward price space is limited [1]. - **Methanol**: The basis is strengthening, and the short - term price will oscillate strongly. The medium - long - term spot market may change from strong to weak oscillation [1]. - **PE, PP, PVC**: Macro - factors are positive, and they will oscillate strongly. PVC has a weak fundamental but may rebound in the short term [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot demand is weak, and the driving force for price increase is insufficient, but the macro - positive factors support the futures price, which will oscillate [1]. - **Propane and Butane**: The CP has decreased, the MB has increased, and the regional price difference of propane has narrowed. Butane is in the seasonal off - season [1].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in U.S. inflation data, highlighting a cooling trend that poses a challenge for the Federal Reserve's decision-making process, particularly regarding potential interest rate cuts [1][2]. Group 1: Inflation Data Analysis - In April, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, marking the lowest level since February 2021 and remaining below expectations for three consecutive months [1]. - Month-on-month, the CPI rose by 0.2%, also falling short of market expectations, indicating a potential shift in inflation dynamics [1]. - Core inflation remains at a relatively comfortable level for the market, suggesting a sustained cooling trend [1]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Decision-Making - The article raises the question of whether the Federal Reserve will initiate a rate cut in response to the cooling inflation, which is seen as a favorable condition for such a move [1]. - The Federal Reserve's cautious stance is influenced by uncertainties stemming from the Trump administration's trade policies, particularly the tariff war, which complicates the inflation outlook [2]. - The decision-making framework of the Federal Reserve is under scrutiny, as it continues to rely on past mechanisms that may not be suitable for the current economic environment characterized by volatility and unpredictability [2][3]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Expectations - The article emphasizes that market participants are likely to adjust their behaviors in response to the tariff war, which could lead to immediate inflationary pressures despite the current data showing a cooling trend [3]. - Investors are advised to prepare for potential risks associated with the Federal Reserve's decisions, especially given the unsustainable nature of U.S. deficits and the burden of interest payments on national debt [3]. - The ongoing global economic transformation, driven by factors such as AI and changes in the supply chain, adds complexity to the Federal Reserve's decision-making landscape [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant interference of the Trump administration's tariff war on the Federal Reserve's decision-making process [1][2] - The April inflation data in the U.S. shows a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, marking the lowest level since February 2021, and a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, both below market expectations [2] - The Federal Reserve's cautious stance is influenced by the uncertainty stemming from the tariff war, which complicates the decision to potentially initiate interest rate cuts despite the favorable inflation trends [2][3] Group 2 - The decision-making environment for the Federal Reserve has changed significantly since the 2008 financial crisis, with the current economic landscape characterized by irregular shocks and complexities introduced by the Trump administration's policies [3] - The Federal Reserve's historical decision-making mechanisms may not adequately address the new challenges posed by the current economic conditions, leading to market disputes regarding its policy responses [3][4] - The implementation of tariffs has immediate effects on market behavior, suggesting that inflation may rise in anticipation of these changes, rather than as a delayed response [4] Group 3 - The current global economic environment is marked by rapid changes and uncertainties, including the restructuring of global supply chains and the unpredictable impacts of new technologies like AI [4] - The sustainability of U.S. fiscal policies is under scrutiny, particularly concerning the burden of national debt and interest payments, which adds to the uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's future decisions [4]