Core Viewpoint - Postal Savings Bank of China (PSBC) has experienced a decline in stock price and trading volume, indicating potential investor concerns and market dynamics [1][3]. Financial Performance - For the first nine months of 2025, PSBC reported a net profit of 765.62 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.98% [6]. - The bank's cumulative cash dividends since its A-share listing amount to 1,377.96 billion yuan, with 773.95 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [7]. Dividend and Shareholder Information - PSBC's dividend yields over the past three years were 5.58%, 6.00%, and 4.61% respectively, indicating a strong commitment to returning value to shareholders [2]. - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders decreased by 13.09% to 142,600, while the average circulating shares per person increased by 15.29% to 478,570 shares [6]. Market Activity - On December 3, PSBC's stock fell by 1.23%, with a trading volume of 9.67 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 0.26%, leading to a total market capitalization of 6,725.32 billion yuan [1]. - The main capital flow showed a net outflow of 1.59 billion yuan today, with a continuous reduction in main capital over the past three days [3]. Technical Analysis - The average trading cost of PSBC shares is 5.18 yuan, with the current stock price fluctuating between resistance at 5.61 yuan and support at 5.59 yuan, suggesting potential for short-term trading strategies [4]. Company Overview - PSBC, established on March 6, 2007, and listed on December 10, 2019, primarily offers banking and financial services in China, with personal banking contributing 65.15% to its revenue, corporate banking 22.71%, and funding operations 12.10% [5].

Market Overview - The overall market remains weak with all three major indices closing lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below 3900 points again [1][3] - Active funds are focusing on high-dividend stocks, particularly in coal, highways, and non-ferrous metals, while most technology stocks are adjusting [1] - The trading volume remains low, with over 3800 stocks declining across the two exchanges [1] Sector Performance - The coal sector saw a significant rise, with stocks like Dayou Energy and Antai Group hitting the daily limit [1] - A strong cold wave has led to a sharp drop in temperatures in North China, with some areas experiencing declines of over 10°C [1] - According to GF Securities, coal prices have risen more than expected since Q4, with October's thermal power generation increasing by 7.3% year-on-year, and seasonal demand expected to rise further from late November [1] - The aerospace sector experienced volatility, with the Zhuque-3 rocket successfully completing its flight mission but failing in the recovery test [1][6] - The non-ferrous metals sector was active, with stocks like Huayang New Materials and Xinke Materials also hitting the daily limit [1] Fund Flows - Main funds are actively investing in small consumer metals, industrial metals, and optical electronics, with notable net inflows into stocks like Tianfu Tongxin and BOE Technology Group [4] Economic Indicators - In the first 11 months, China's old-for-new consumption policy has driven sales exceeding 2.5 trillion yuan, benefiting over 360 million people [5] - The Zhuque-3 rocket's launch and recovery test failure highlights ongoing challenges in the commercial aerospace sector [6] Future Outlook - According to Xinda Securities, attention should be paid to the Central Economic Work Conference in December, which may bring unexpected policy changes that could trigger an early spring market [2] - Dongfang Caifu suggests that the recent appreciation of the RMB may accelerate foreign capital allocation to the A-share market, with a focus on sectors like semiconductors, energy storage, robotics, AI applications, and pharmaceuticals [9] - Huaxi Securities notes that the slowdown in new capital entering the market is leading to faster sector rotation, with a focus on policy meetings and economic targets for 2026 [10]

Core Viewpoint - The report titled "A New Dawn" by Dong Guangyang's team at Huachuang Securities highlights the potential recovery in the food and beverage sector, despite the macroeconomic demand recovery taking time. Positive signals have emerged from CPI data and certain consumer sub-sectors like dining, hotels, and airlines [1] Group 1: Investment Strategy - The food and beverage sector is entering 2026 with low holdings, low expectations, and low valuations, which opens up certainty and potential for returns [1] - The active equity allocation in the food and beverage sector has significantly reduced, nearing the bottom levels seen in 2010, with overall holdings dropping to 4%. Specifically, holdings in consumer staples have fallen to 0.8%, and in liquor to 3.1%, both at historical lows [1] - The overall valuation of the sector and most sub-sectors has declined to the lowest levels in five years, indicating potential for recovery [1] Group 2: Insurance Capital Involvement - Since 2022, the scale of insurance capital utilization has been growing, reaching 37.5 trillion yuan by the end of Q3 this year, a 12.6% increase from the beginning of the year [2] - The proportion of equity assets in insurance capital has risen to 15.5%, a historical high, with a focus on mature business models and clear competitive landscapes [2] - The liquor industry, characterized by high barriers and strong brands, is expected to see an increased share of insurance capital due to its stable dividend yield around 4% [2] Group 3: Stock Selection - The team suggests that the liquor sector is at the bottom of its cycle, while consumer staples are positioned for certainty and high elasticity [3] Group 4: Investment Accessibility - Ordinary individual investors can access the food and beverage sector through industry-themed ETFs, such as the Food and Beverage ETF (515170.SH), which tracks a major index focused on high-barrier and resilient sectors like liquor and dairy [4] - The ETF provides a convenient investment tool for small capital investors, contrasting with the high minimum investment thresholds of individual component stocks [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the positive performance of the petrochemical ETF (159731), which has seen a 0.24% increase and significant net inflow of funds totaling 22.15 million yuan over the past eight days, reaching a new high of 238 million shares [1][2] - The petrochemical sector is experiencing active performance in the commodity market, with significant price increases in synthetic rubber and other chemical products due to geopolitical tensions and fundamental rumors, while crude oil prices are strengthening due to production pauses and geopolitical issues [1] - Huatai Securities notes that the market's risk appetite has continued to decline, but high-dividend sectors, particularly oil and petrochemicals, have performed relatively well, suggesting a potential recovery in risk appetite in December [1] Group 2 - The petrochemical ETF (159731) and its linked funds (017855/017856) closely track the CSI Petrochemical Industry Index, with the basic chemical industry accounting for 60.39% and the oil and petrochemical industry for 32.71% of the index [2] - The release of the "Stabilizing Growth Work Plan" is expected to support the industry's scale over the next two years, highlighting the long-term value of the industry under the "anti-involution" policy [2]

Investment Focus - The report highlights a favorable market style for essential consumer goods in China, with several companies rated as "Outperform," including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Yili [1]. Industry Overview - In November 2025, four out of eight tracked essential consumer sectors showed positive growth, including condiments, frozen foods, soft drinks, and dining, while four sectors, such as high-end and below-average baijiu, dairy products, and beer, experienced negative growth [3][8]. - The overall growth rate across all sectors has weakened compared to the previous month, attributed to macroeconomic conditions, structural industry conflicts, and seasonal factors [3][8]. Price Trends - In November, wholesale prices for most baijiu brands declined, with Guizhou Moutai's prices dropping by 110 to 90 yuan compared to the previous month [4][20]. - The average price for Wuliangye remained stable, while the market for high-end baijiu showed a decline in both volume and price [9][10]. Cost Analysis - The cost index for six categories of consumer goods mostly increased in November, with soft drinks and dairy products rising by 2.50% and 0.74%, respectively [4][48]. - The prices of raw materials such as paper and plastic have shown significant year-on-year changes, with paper prices increasing by 17.5% [4]. Fund Flow - As of the end of November, net inflows into Hong Kong Stock Connect reached 111.58 billion yuan, with the essential consumer sector's market capitalization share increasing by 0.32 percentage points [5]. Valuation Metrics - By the end of November, the PE historical percentile for A-share food and beverage was at 21%, with the beer sector at a low of 1% [5]. - The median valuation for leading A-share food and beverage companies remained stable at 22x, while H-share essential consumer sector PE historical percentile was at 24% [5]. Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-dividend stocks as a long-term strategy, particularly in the dairy sector, which is expected to recover first, and regional leaders in the baijiu market [6].

华泰证券研报称，11月市场风险偏好中枢继续回落，当前全A ERP位于过去滚动5年均值附近，高股息 板块整体表现仍相对走强，其中银行、石油石化本月表现相对较优。展望12月，我们认为伴随着市场风 险偏好或有修复，海外美债长端利率及美元指数回落，对立资产前期调整或较为充分，高股息板块配置 价值较11月边际回落，配置上继续建议关注"反内卷"相关周期型高股息及部分潜力型高股息品种。 ...

Wind数据显示，截至2025年12月2日A股收盘，石油石化、家用电器、煤炭领涨市场，涨幅分别为0.71%、0.43%、0.21%。 石油石化、家用电器、煤炭 近期多项国家级政策密集出台，为石油石化、煤炭、家用电器板块注入强劲动力。能源保供方面，国家发改委11月召开2025—2026年供暖季保供会议，明确 稳定煤炭生产运输、保障电煤中长期合同高履约率，当前统调电厂存煤达2.2亿吨可用35天，叠加11月动力煤年度长协价上调8元/吨，煤炭板块盈利稳定性持 续增强。 石油石化行业受益于绿电直连政策落地，塔里木油田等绿电直供炼化项目加速推进，既降低用能成本又满足降碳需求，叠加重点行业稳增长方案反对"内卷 式"竞争，行业格局持续优化。 家电领域，上海11月30日印发以旧换新实施细则，补贴范围扩至12类产品，最高补贴2000元，政策红利直接拉动消费需求。 供需格局优化与转型政策共振，三大板块利好持续释放。煤炭行业迎来冬季供暖季补库需求高峰，10月以来日均产量稳定在1200万吨以上，叠加"北煤南 运"核心节点建设提速，供需平衡支撑价格稳健运行。 石油石化领域，国家11月发布新能源消纳指导意见，支持"沙戈荒"基地与产业融合发 ...

11月，A股市场在结构性机会中先扬后抑，最终未能有效突破3900点。但12个月的首个交易日，A股即继续维持反弹格局，并成功突破这一重要关口。 目前，据笔者观察，市场情绪整体稳定，资金仍在积极寻找新的方向，调仓换股、布局跨年行情成为当前市场的主旋律。那么，12月有哪些个股值得重点 关注？笔者从最新券商金股组合中梳理出三大主线，供大家参考。 当前仍在牛市中 今天，A股市场维持反弹格局，截至收盘，沪指报收3914.01点（见附图）。#a股持续高位震荡#十二月的第一天 更重要的是，在国家对于"慢牛"的政策指引之下，与往年牛市相比，当前指数仍然有相当大的上涨空间，这意味着市场大方向或仍处在牛市中。不过短期 来看，市场可能缺乏强力催化，叠加年末部分投资者在行为上可能趋于稳健，股市短期或以震荡蓄势为主。 聚焦三大主线 板块方面，智能音响、MCU芯片、卫星互联网、6G、工业金属等热门概念涨幅居前，尤其是代表端侧AI赛道的智能音响大涨超5%。对此，笔者在上周五 的文章中已做过重要提醒，大家感兴趣的可以点击：《101天！这类公司正走出"隐形牛市"》。 往后看，A股的持续反弹仍值得期待。 牛犇 从11月调整原因来看，主要有美联储降 ...

Group 1: Dividend Indices - The China Securities Hong Kong Stock Connect Central Enterprises Dividend Index (931233.CSI) includes 50 stable dividend-paying stocks with high dividend yields, achieving a 1-year dividend yield of 5.70%, surpassing the 10-year government bond yield of 3.85 [1] - The Hang Seng Mainland Enterprises High Dividend Yield Index (HSMCHYI.HI) consists of high dividend stocks listed in Hong Kong, with a 1-year dividend yield of 5.34%, also higher than the 10-year government bond yield of 3.49 [1] - The Non-Standard S&P Hong Kong Stock Connect Low Volatility Dividend Index (SPAHLVHP.SPI) includes 50 high dividend low volatility stocks, with the Hong Kong Stock Connect Dividend Low Volatility ETF (159118) being the lowest fee ETF tracking this index [1] Group 2: Company Dividend Announcements - Agricultural Bank of China announced a dividend of RMB 0.1195 per share, with an ex-dividend date of December 5, 2025, and a payment date of January 26, 2026 [2] - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China declared a dividend of RMB 0.1414 per share, with an ex-dividend date of December 4, 2025, and a payment date of January 26, 2026 [2] - Changan Minsheng Logistics announced a dividend of HKD 0.05493 per share, with an ex-dividend date of December 2, 2025, and a payment date of January 30, 2026 [2] Group 3: Additional Company Dividends - Perfect Medical announced a dividend of HKD 0.076 per share, with an ex-dividend date of December 12, 2025, and a payment date of December 31, 2025 [3] - Chongqing Bank declared a dividend of HKD 0.185075283 per share, with an ex-dividend date of December 2, 2025, and a payment date of January 16, 2026 [3] - Yihe Holdings announced a dividend of HKD 0.15 per share, with an ex-dividend date of December 12, 2025, and a payment date of December 31, 2025 [3] Group 4: Other Company Dividends - Huaxin Handbag International Holdings declared an interim dividend of HKD 0.04 and a special dividend of HKD 0.02 per share, with an ex-dividend date of December 15, 2025, and a payment date of January 9, 2026 [4] - Tianli International Holdings announced a dividend of HKD 0.0429 per share, with an ex-dividend date of February 4, 2026, and a payment date of February 27, 2026 [4] - China Keyway announced a dividend of HKD 0.06 per share, with an ex-dividend date of July 31, 2026, and a payment date of August 21, 2026 [4]

今日早参 2025 年 12 月 01 日 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 今日热点 宏观：价格回升较产量明显 11 月制造业 PMI 较 10 月的 49%回升至 49.2%（彭博一致预期 49.2%），较 往年季节性水平偏低；非制造业商务活动指数较 10 月的 50.1%回落至 49.5%（彭博一致预期 50%）。11 月制造业 PMI 供需两端分项指标均边际改 善、价格指标亦有所修复——具体看，PMI 分项中生产、采购量较 10 月的 49.7%/49.0%上升至 50.0%/49.5%；新订单、新出口订单、就业人员 PMI 亦 较 10 月回升 0.4/1.7/0.1 个百分点至 49.2%/47.6%/48.4%。此外，商品价格 指数整体回升，购进价格及出厂价格分别较 10 月上行 1.1/0.7 个百分点至 53.6%/48.2%。行业中，高新技术制造业连续 10 个月位于扩张区间，而装 备 制 造 业 / 消 费 品 行 业 PMI 较 10 月 的 50.2%/50.1% 分别回落至 49.8%/49.4% ...