Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **photovoltaic (PV) industry** and **solid-state battery** technology, highlighting ongoing supply-side reforms and their implications for market dynamics and investment opportunities. Key Points on Photovoltaic Industry 1. **Supply-Side Reforms**: Continuous supply-side reforms in the PV industry are expected to streamline the pricing across the industry chain, promoting healthy development. The rise in polysilicon futures prices and silicon wafer prices indicates cost transmission, with polysilicon prices potentially stabilizing around 60,000 RMB based on a five-year investment recovery period [1][2][6]. 2. **Demand Concerns**: Market concerns regarding PV demand for the second half of the year and 2026 may be overestimated. Historical trends suggest that significant demand growth often follows periods of low demand, as seen in 2012 and 2018. Key macro factors, such as overseas solar-plus-storage projects, are likely to catalyze demand [4][5]. 3. **Overseas Projects**: The Abu Dhabi 5.2 GW solar and 19 GWh storage project demonstrates competitive levelized cost of electricity at 3 cents per kWh, indicating strong demand for large-scale solar-plus-storage projects in overseas markets [4][5]. 4. **Investment Focus**: Recommendations include focusing on the main chain and auxiliary materials within the PV sector, as these areas may experience price recovery during the ongoing anti-involution process [7]. Key Points on Solid-State Batteries 1. **Market Position**: Solid-state batteries are still in the early stages of industrial development, with a positive outlook for equipment and materials sectors. Major companies like CATL and BYD are already making procurement moves in solid-state equipment [9]. 2. **Technological Innovations**: Innovations such as semi-solid batteries are enhancing solid electrolyte performance while reducing electrolyte usage, which significantly impacts equipment requirements [9]. 3. **Comparison with Liquid Batteries**: Liquid lithium batteries have made significant safety advancements, while solid-state batteries are still evolving. Liquid batteries currently offer cost advantages and have improved safety standards following new regulations [10]. Additional Insights - **Emerging Technologies**: New PV technologies, including BC (Back Contact) cells and silver reduction techniques, are critical for competitive positioning in the market. The inverter and storage sectors are also highlighted as areas of potential investment [3][8]. - **AIDC Sector Dynamics**: Developments in the AIDC sector, particularly NVIDIA's potential resumption of H20 sales to China, could drive growth in related markets, including HVDC and server power systems [13]. - **Long-Term Trends**: The long-term outlook for humanoid robots remains strong despite recent fluctuations, with upcoming events expected to catalyze interest and investment in this area [14]. Conclusion The conference call emphasizes the resilience and growth potential of the photovoltaic industry and solid-state battery technology, driven by supply-side reforms, technological advancements, and favorable macroeconomic factors. Investors are encouraged to focus on key areas within these sectors for potential opportunities.

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The current external demand sector is experiencing intense competition, leading companies to increase supply and reduce prices to capture market share, resulting in fixed asset turnover rates dropping to historical lows, indicating potential oversupply in strong demand areas compared to internal demand sectors which remain at historical median levels [1][5] Key Insights and Arguments - The recent "anti-involution" policy is not a comprehensive contraction of upstream supply but focuses on downstream industries such as automotive and food delivery, contrasting significantly with the 2016 supply-side reforms [1][2] - To address "sneaky" new production capacity in manufacturing, measures such as self-discipline talks, industry mergers and acquisitions, raising technical standards, and strengthening regulation to eliminate outdated equipment can be implemented [1][6] - The policy to eliminate old equipment can significantly alleviate involution in the short term without major impacts on employment, potentially increasing the Producer Price Index (PPI) by one percentage point and boosting industrial enterprise profit growth by two percentage points [1][7] - Current demand-side policies should avoid stimulating demand in oversupplied areas and instead guide demand in non-oversupplied sectors, such as services, to achieve a rebalancing of demand structure [1][8][9] Additional Important Points - High-energy-consuming industries have undergone significant capacity upgrades and equipment updates, with capacity growth near zero but fixed asset investment growth at 20%-30%, indicating improved production efficiency and reduced energy consumption [1][4] - The external demand sector shows more severe competition, with fixed asset turnover rates declining to historical lows despite good revenue performance, while internal demand sectors remain closer to historical median turnover rates [1][5] - The real estate market is currently experiencing a divergence in transactions, with first-hand housing sales improving in first-tier cities but declining in second and third-tier cities, while second-hand housing sales show a contrasting trend [1][10][12] - The recent Japanese Senate election results may significantly impact fiscal policy, with the ruling party focusing on fiscal sustainability amid global discussions on debt sustainability [1][13] Conclusion - The conference call highlighted the complexities of current market dynamics, particularly the differences between external and internal demand sectors, the implications of recent policy changes, and the ongoing adjustments within high-energy industries. The insights provided a comprehensive understanding of the challenges and opportunities present in the current economic landscape.

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The construction industry is facing severe issues of excessive competition and homogenization, leading to low profitability for companies. In 2024, the total revenue of the industry is expected to decline by 4.3%, with a performance drop of 14% [1][3] - The "anti-involution" policy introduced by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology aims to eliminate low-price disorderly competition and guide companies to launch new products, which is crucial for the construction industry [2] Key Companies and Their Performance - Central enterprises with good business models and stable cash flows, such as China National Materials and China State Construction International, are expected to benefit from the anti-involution policy due to their strong net profit performance and growth, making them suitable for dividend stock allocation [1][4] - Honglu Steel Structure has seen an increase in production and sales from 2021 to 2024, but its profits have fluctuated significantly, primarily due to steel price volatility. The net profit per ton dropped from 280 RMB in 2021 to 110 RMB in 2024 [1][6] - Zhongguang International and China National Materials are likely to benefit from improved domestic corporate profits, alleviating debt issues and encouraging investment in green technology upgrades [1][9] Market Dynamics - The rise in steel prices has a significant impact on companies like Honglu Steel Structure, which benefits from holding large inventories. The pricing strategy is based on current prices plus processing fees [1][5] - The construction sector may benefit from improved operational quality and valuation recovery due to the anti-involution policy [2] Challenges and Opportunities - The main challenges for the construction industry include excessive competition, homogenization, and issues such as blind expansion and high debt levels, which have led to low profitability [3][11] - Opportunities arise if the Chinese economy can break the deflation spiral and achieve a new growth cycle, leading to demand-side growth. Additionally, increased investment in green technology and the promotion of smart manufacturing will provide new development momentum for construction companies [11] Future Outlook - Honglu Steel Structure's future performance will depend on several factors, including market share improvement, macroeconomic conditions, and advancements in smart manufacturing that can reduce costs significantly [8] - The overall improvement in the competitive environment due to breaking the deflation spiral and healthy price increases will be beneficial for the construction industry and related companies [10]

Core Viewpoint - The Ruiyuan Growth Value Mixed Fund, managed by prominent fund managers Fu Pengbo and Zhu Lin, has maintained a high asset allocation in sectors such as electronics, internet technology, precision manufacturing, and pharmaceuticals, with significant contributions from the PCB industry [1][2]. Fund Performance - As of the end of Q2, the net asset value of Ruiyuan Growth Value Mixed A shares was 1.2955 CNY, with a growth rate of 5.80%, outperforming the benchmark return of 1.67%. The C shares had a net asset value of 1.2634 CNY, with a growth rate of 5.70% [1]. Holdings Overview - The top ten holdings of the fund as of Q2 included Shenghong Technology, Tencent Holdings, CATL, China Mobile, Luxshare Precision, Xinyi Technology, Cambricon Technologies, Juxing Technology, Sanofi Biologics, and Maiwei Co., with new entry Xinyi Technology and exit of Guanghui Energy compared to Q1 [2]. Market Dynamics - The fund's managers noted fluctuations in the US-China tariff agreements, which impacted global markets. The domestic capital market managed to stabilize amid these changes, with expectations of a potential decline in exports due to demand and inventory factors [2]. Policy and Economic Environment - The Chinese government is addressing "involution" in development through policies aimed at correcting distorted factor prices, with a focus on boosting overall commodity prices. The current economic environment differs from past supply-side reforms due to weak overall demand [3]. Investment Strategy - The fund has increased its holdings in companies related to the export chain despite short-term impacts, while reducing exposure to traditional energy companies due to market style influences and fundamental pressures. The fund has also increased its allocation to the pharmaceutical sector, focusing on innovative drugs and traditional medicine benefiting from AI [4]. Future Outlook - The upcoming mid-year reports from listed companies will be used to assess the operational status and future development of existing holdings. The fund aims to identify industries and companies with upward trends in prosperity, optimizing its portfolio to manage net value fluctuations effectively [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [1] Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced a weekly increase of 1.82%, ranking above average among all primary industries [14] - Industrial metal prices are under pressure due to rising U.S. inflation and a strong dollar, while domestic "anti-involution" sentiment creates a mixed outlook [27][28] - Gold prices are expected to remain stable in the short term due to the strong dollar and interest rate expectations [48] Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.69%, with the non-ferrous metals sector outperforming by 1.13 percentage points [14] - Among sub-sectors, small metals increased by 4.45%, energy metals by 3.31%, precious metals by 1.61%, industrial metals by 1.00%, and new metal materials by 0.19% [14] Industrial Metals - Copper: LME copper price reached $9,795/ton, up 1.36% week-on-week, while SHFE copper price was 78,410 CNY/ton, down 0.03% [32] - Aluminum: LME aluminum price was $2,638/ton, up 1.38%, and SHFE aluminum price was 20,510 CNY/ton, down 0.89% [37] - Zinc: LME zinc price was $2,824/ton, up 3.14%, while SHFE zinc price was 22,295 CNY/ton, down 0.38% [41] - Tin: LME tin price was $33,355/ton, down 0.63%, and SHFE tin price was 264,540 CNY/ton, up 0.23% [43] Precious Metals - Gold: COMEX gold closed at $3,355.50/oz, down 0.44%, while SHFE gold closed at 777.02 CNY/g, up 0.45% [47]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [1]. Core Views - The aluminum prices are experiencing fluctuations during the off-season, and a growth stabilization plan is expected to be announced soon [6][11]. - Despite the off-season demand, the low inventory levels and reduced aluminum supply are expected to provide some support for aluminum prices [11]. - The long-term outlook for the aluminum industry remains positive due to limited supply growth and potential demand increases [11]. Summary by Sections 1. Prices - As of July 18, the LME three-month aluminum closing price was $2638.0 per ton, up $36.0 from the previous week, representing a 1.4% week-on-week increase and a 9.7% year-on-year increase [24]. - The Shanghai aluminum active contract closing price was 20510.0 CNY per ton, down 185.0 CNY from the previous week, a 0.9% decrease week-on-week, but up 3.9% year-on-year [24]. - The average price of A00 aluminum in Changjiang was 20760.0 CNY per ton, unchanged from the previous week, but up 5.4% year-on-year [24]. 2. Production - In June 2025, the electrolytic aluminum production was 360.9 million tons, a decrease of 12.0 million tons month-on-month and a decrease of 2.8 million tons year-on-year [53]. - The alumina production in June 2025 was 725.8 million tons, a decrease of 1.4 million tons month-on-month, but an increase of 26.9 million tons year-on-year [53]. 3. Inventory - As of July 17, the domestic mainstream consumption area had an electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory of 49.20 million tons, an increase of 2.6 million tons week-on-week [7]. - The aluminum rod inventory was 15.60 million tons, a decrease of 0.4 million tons week-on-week, mainly due to reduced production and downstream replenishment [7]. 4. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - China Hongqiao (1378.HK) is rated "Buy" with an EPS forecast of 2.71 CNY for 2025E [5]. - Tianshan Aluminum (002532.SZ) is rated "Buy" with an EPS forecast of 1.12 CNY for 2025E [5]. - Shenhuo Co. (000933.SZ) is rated "Buy" with an EPS forecast of 2.62 CNY for 2025E [5]. - China Aluminum (601600.SH) is rated "Buy" with an EPS forecast of 0.91 CNY for 2025E [5]. - Yun Aluminum (000807.SZ) is rated "Buy" with an EPS forecast of 2.00 CNY for 2025E [5].

不过，我们看问题不能止步于外卖，可以看到， 堪称全球 "卷王"的中国，现在开始弥漫着反 内卷的气息。 比如外卖行业，如果放在几年前，某家企业宣布烧钱进军外卖，做大营收，资本市场往往是给 予认可，股价上涨，而现在市场明显厌倦了，卷者和被卷者股价都是下跌。 像光伏行业也是，前几年，这里上光伏项目，那里上，市场很开心，而今天再看到哪里上产 能，吓都吓死了。市场苦"卷"已久矣。 而企业的利润持续下滑，甚至巨额亏损，叠加 PPI 的不断负增长，也终于引起政府高层的重 视，从鼓励卷，到开始有点反内卷的意思。 有许多人想起了 2015 年开始的供给侧改革。背景确实有些相似，都是产能过剩，行业亏损或 者利润大幅下降， PPI 为负。那么以供给侧改革为参考，反内卷走到哪一步了？ 通缩环境下，投资人最怕听到的莫过于 "卷"，比如前几个月京东宣布进军外卖，两家股东都 是在骂娘，后面阿里也加入，三家公司的股价一起手拉手下跌，压得恒生科技指数抬不起头， 被称为外卖指数，直看着美股的纳斯达克一路新高。 年初的时候，大家说今年的市场要盯着巨头花钱方向，大家都以为方向会是 AI ，会是机器 人，会是这样的星辰大海，哪知道巨头们却是眼前的苟且 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in the A-share market, particularly in rare earth, lithium, and small metal sectors, is driven by policy signals aimed at reducing excess capacity and improving market prices, referred to as the "anti-involution" concept [6][16][17]. Group 1: Market Performance - On July 18, major stocks in the rare earth and lithium sectors saw significant gains, with North Rare Earth rising by 9.87% and Jiuwu High-Tech soaring by 20% [1]. - The Wind popular concept index showed substantial increases in various sectors, with rare earths up by 6.09% and lithium mining by 3.04% [2]. - In the futures market, aluminum oxide prices surged nearly 7%, while glass and soda ash also saw increases exceeding 5% [7][9]. Group 2: Policy Impact - Recent announcements regarding lithium resource mining permits have led to speculation about potential nationwide restrictions, contributing to price increases in lithium futures [10][11]. - The "anti-involution" policy aims to address overcapacity and low-price competition across multiple industries, including traditional sectors like steel and new sectors like photovoltaics and lithium batteries [16][17]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has indicated that a new round of growth stabilization plans for key industries will be implemented, signaling a systematic approach to the "anti-involution" strategy [17]. Group 3: Industry Trends - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a strong upward trend, with polysilicon futures prices rising over 50% since late June [3][14]. - Glass manufacturers are reducing production by 30% to manage supply, which is expected to impact the market positively [12]. - The industrial product futures index has increased by 4.18% in July, with coal, building materials, and steel sectors showing significant gains [14]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts are optimistic about the "anti-involution" trend, suggesting that industries with high inventory and low capacity utilization may benefit from upcoming policy measures [18]. - Historical precedents indicate that supply-side reforms can lead to significant improvements in industry profitability, as seen in the steel and coal sectors during previous reforms [18]. - The upcoming political bureau meeting may further enhance growth stabilization policies, potentially leading to a more sustained recovery in the industrial product market [18].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the chemical industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The petrochemical industry's stable growth plan is expected to optimize the competitive landscape of the chemical industry on the supply side [4][30] - The TDI market price has risen sharply due to supply disruptions caused by an incident at a production facility in Germany [4][24] - The overall profitability of the chemical industry is under pressure due to increased capital expenditures and concentrated new capacity over the past four years, but the upcoming stable growth plans may lead to the elimination of outdated capacity and recovery of product profitability [30] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The chemical industry index outperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.69% this week, with 302 out of 545 stocks in the sector rising [18] - The CCPI (China Chemical Product Price Index) reported a decrease of 0.27% this week [20] Key Products Tracking - The TDI market price increased to an average of 14,063 CNY/ton, up 17.06% from the previous week [24] - The glyphosate market is showing strong performance with prices continuing to rise, averaging 25,901 CNY/ton [55] Recommended and Beneficiary Stocks - Recommended stocks include Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, Hengli Petrochemical, and others in various sub-sectors [6][30] - Beneficiary stocks include Cangzhou Dahua and others that may benefit from the current market conditions [25][31]

债 券 研 究 相关研究 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 栾强 A0230524110003 luanqiang@swsresearch.com 研究支持 王哲一 A0230123100001 wangzy@swsresearch.com 联系人 王哲一 (8621)23297818× wangzy@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 2025 年 07 月 20 日 债市短期与中期矛盾的关注点 策 略 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 债 券 证 券 研 究 报 告 - ⚫ 资金和机构行为仍是债市短期主要矛盾。 ◼ 资金面：本周（2025/7/14-2025/7/18）无论从表态、资金投放以及资金 价格走势等多重视角来看，央行呵护债市态度较为明确且及时，本周债市 虽受税期扰动、超长期限特别国债发飞、股债跷跷板等多重不利因素影响， 但债市并未出现明显调整。 ◼ 机构行为：由于 2025Q1 债市出现调整，固收类产品今年累积利润较薄， 即使债市出现小幅波动，投资者也对此较为敏感，当前债市向下空 ...