周二 A 股窄幅震荡，假日效应导致市场窄幅波动。周二 A 股小幅低开后进入窄幅震荡，全天波幅 有限，中小市值个股表现相对较好。上证指数距离所谓"对等关税"宣布前的跳空缺口 3319 点仅一步之 遥，市场分歧有所加大，追涨意愿下降，但 A 股的修复行情仍然在延续。临近五一长假，市场担心长 假期间出现突发事件影响节后表现，因此总体表现相对谨慎。从中期角度来看，在中央汇金等三家国资 开始增持，叠加多家上市公司宣布回购增持后，市场已经迎来拐点。尽管所谓"对等关税"的后续影响还 存在一定不确定性，但市场交易开始克服恐慌心理，指数在波折中继续修复行情。 后市展望：关税事件的冲击最高峰已经过去，A 股将在波折中继续修复。4 月 7 日的极端下跌是对 近期所谓"对等关税"事件的一次性反映，随着市场情绪逐渐平稳和以中央汇金为代表的国资以及多家上 市公司宣布回购增持后，目前 A 股已经进入修复性回升。但修复过程并非一帆风顺，美国对全球范围 加征所谓"对等关税"的后续变化对中国和全球经济产生的影响目前仍存在较大不确定性，市场预期变化 也存在反复。后市争议较大的仍然是对海外业务依赖性较高的行业，如消费电子、CXO 等会受到"对等 关 ...

Core Viewpoint - The mechanical industry experienced significant fluctuations in April due to factors such as reciprocal tariffs, with traditional engineering machinery and high-speed rail equipment performing well [1][3]. Investment Highlights - In April, the CITIC mechanical sector declined by 6.33%, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which fell by 2.58%, resulting in a 3.75 percentage point lag, ranking 28th among 30 CITIC primary industries [2]. - Only two sub-industries, semiconductor equipment and engineering machinery, recorded positive returns, with respective increases of 2.68% and 0.23%, while sectors like aerial work vehicles and service robots saw significant declines [2]. Industry Insights and Recommendations - The market's significant fluctuations in April were influenced by reciprocal tariffs, leading to a notable pullback in technology growth sectors, while engineering machinery, mining metallurgy machinery, oil and gas equipment, and high-speed rail equipment showed strong performance [3]. - The company recommends focusing on traditional engineering machinery with stable earnings and high dividend yields, specifically highlighting SANY Heavy Industry and XCMG, as well as high-speed rail equipment leaders like Siveco [3]. - The report also suggests attention to the wind and photovoltaic industries due to the 136 document's impact, recommending wind turbine bearing leader Xinqianglian [3].

行业板块 和题材表现上， 银行股新高，电力冲高回落，消费、地产 等权重板块 领跌 拖累指 数表现，其中 银行股强势 ， 工商银行、建设银行、江苏银行、成都 银行 等创历史新高，显 示资金避险情绪升温，高股息策略受青睐。电力板块 则 冲高回落 ， 华银电力（ 3连板）、 华电辽能（2连板）涨停，但西昌电力炸板回落， 说明电力板块开始分化， 板块持续性存疑。 二、 4 月末业绩线过渡，预计 5 月科技成长为主回归 一、 行情复盘：指数缩量调整，银行股逆势新高，题材轮动乏力 今天 大盘缩 量震荡，三大指数全天弱势震荡，沪指跌 0.2% ， 深成指跌 0.62%，创业板指 跌0.65%，市场成交额1.06万亿（较前一日缩量572亿），显示 节前整体 资金观望情绪浓 厚。 同时由于财报季尾声，更多个股暴雷甚至 ST出现，近4000家 个股 下 跌，近百股跌超 9%， 同时涨停和跌停都达到 40家， 市场亏钱效应明显，短线情绪低迷。 会议刺激政策没超预期， 消费、地产 板块 重挫 ， 食品饮料、零售（有友食品、贝因美、国 光连锁跌停） 等 全线调整 （除了少部分业绩优秀的个股，比如珀莱雅 2连板） ；房地产受 政策预期降 ...

A. 恐慌抛售怕被套牢 B. 逢低加仓期待反弹 C. 不知所措观望等待 亲爱的鹏友们： 展信佳！第二封信我们初步认识了"牛市也会有回撤"。 我们回归到实战操作，当你的持仓市值一周内回落 15%，你会： 正确答案取决于：这到底是上涨路途的中场休息，还是盛宴结束？ 识别市场位置需要跳出情 绪干扰，借助成体系的指标工具进行理性诊断。今天，我们将以 A 股历史为参照， 分析各指标工具和市场表现的关系，帮助大家在波动行情中找到自己的锚点。 估值信号灯：低买高卖的标尺 市盈率（PE）分位数是判断市场估值水位的常用指标。2007 年全市场 PE 突破 70 倍（历史分位数 98%）， 2015 年创业板 PE 达 145 倍（分位数 99%），均构成显著泡沫特征。 我们可根据指数的估值历史百分位划分状态，再根据估值状态来辅助决定买入、持有或卖出。比如： 低于25%——低估 介于25%和75%之间——适中 高于75%——高估 当前数据：全 A 指数 PE18 倍，处于近十年 34% 分位，沪深 300 指数 PE12 倍（分位数 39%），中证 500 指 数 PE27 倍（分位数 39%），整体估值处于适中区间，未现系统性 ...

国家战略转型的大环境下，新兴产业层出不穷，为何会如此看好人形机器人赛道呢？ 李朝昱称，"我是个科技迷，一直以来对于科幻类型的小说、电影、漫画等都十分的热衷，我觉得科技 最大的魅力就在于其发展的未知和不确定性。人们总说科幻是基于现有科技的联想，但往往忽略了科技 的演进也常常受到科幻的启发，一些当时在电影和小说中被认为是天马行空的科幻场景在数十年后照进 现实的案例比比皆是，我自己对此就时刻充满了期待。拿这次的人形机器人来说，当我第一次看到特斯 拉展示的人形机器人Optimus时，我立刻就联想到了经典电影星球大战中那个走路摇摇晃晃憨态可掬的 人形服务机器人3PO，这带给了我不小的震撼和冲击，让我意识到人形机器人进入我们的生活可能真的 已经不再遥远。正是这份对未来科技无限可能性的憧憬和追求，使我对科技成长类行业更加的关注和敏 感。" "我是在特斯拉2022年10月公布其第一代人形机器人Optimus时开始关注到这个行业，此后的两年多时 间，我做了很多上市公司的调研和深入的产业研究，并保持密切的跟踪。而在2024年的下半年，我看到 了在灵巧手，丝杠，减速器等各个环节技术与产品的逐渐成熟，特斯拉在同年展示的新一代Opti ...

随着公募基金2025年一季报出炉，众基金产品的阶段性"成绩单"也得以揭晓。受益AI崛起引领的科技投 资热潮，部分"含科量"更高的主动权益产品搭上顺风车，整体表现突出。固收方面，尽管一季度遭遇逆 风考验，但长期看绩优纯债基金仍是"收蛋人"不可或缺的存在。其中在国泰海通证券纯债类基金绝对收 益排行榜上，汇安基金最近三年和最近五年均排名同业前30强。(数据来源：国泰海通证券《基金公司 权益及固定收益类资产业绩排行榜》，计算截至2025年3月31日，发布日期2025年4月2日) 权益：前瞻布局科技成长板块 从过往操作看，汇安行业龙头混合更多是从长期投资角度去寻找结构性的机会，整体保持较低的换手 率。邹唯在一季报中指出，希望把视角放到两到三年甚至更久的维度，去寻找到能够长大的行业和个 股。"目前来看，整体宏观环境趋于稳定，因为处于动力换挡期，国内经济整体趋于平淡但是却极具韧 性；因此，我们寻找到的结构性机会更多地出现在科技成长类行业，这也是我们目前配置的主要方 向"。 回顾一季度，在政策 "组合拳" 的持续发力下，我国经济呈现"科技强、消费 弱、周期稳"的格局，市场 结构性行情显著，科技(电子、计算机)、制造(机械设备 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the performance and trends of the CSI A500 index funds in the first quarter, noting a decline in overall scale and shares, but with some funds experiencing significant net subscriptions and growth in scale [1][4][6]. Group 1: Fund Performance - As of April 22, 33 CSI A500 funds experienced net subscriptions, with some exceeding 3 billion shares [1][5]. - A total of 135 CSI A500 index-related funds reported their first-quarter data, with 80% of them being established in the fourth quarter of 2024 [3]. - The total subscription for these funds was 875.04 billion shares, while total redemptions reached 1,343.68 billion shares, resulting in a net redemption of 468.64 billion shares [4]. Group 2: Fund Scale Changes - The total scale of 135 CSI A500 funds decreased by 141.79 billion yuan, from 1,934.30 billion yuan at the end of 2024 to 1,792.51 billion yuan at the end of the first quarter [7]. - Eight funds managed to achieve scale growth despite the overall decline, with notable increases from 嘉实中证A500ETF (over 3.5 billion yuan) and 富国中证A500ETF (approximately 1.445 billion yuan) [6][7]. Group 3: Market Trends and New Products - Nearly 75 fund companies are currently involved in CSI A500 products, with 13 funds in the issuance stage, including new types like enhanced strategy ETFs [2][9]. - The introduction of five new strategy indices for the CSI A500 indicates a diversification in product offerings and index tracking options for fund companies [10][12].

Group 1 - Liu Gesong's funds reported a total scale of 32.171 billion yuan at the end of Q1, a decrease of approximately 2 billion yuan compared to the previous quarter [2] - The main sectors for investment include new energy vehicles, electronics, lithium batteries, photovoltaics, and military industry [2] - The flagship fund, Guangfa Shuangqing Upgrade, has a year-to-date return of -3.89%, underperforming its benchmark [2] Group 2 - The concentration of the top ten holdings in Guangfa Shuangqing Upgrade decreased to 71.21% from 81.76% in the previous quarter, a decline of about 10% [2] - Six out of the top ten holdings were reduced, with the largest reduction in Beifang Huachuang, which saw a decrease of 33.83% in shares held [2][3] - New entrants to the top ten holdings include Zhenhua Technology and Fenzhong Media, while Tianhe Energy and AVIC Optoelectronics exited [3] Group 3 - Guangfa Industry Fund's latest scale is 6.38 billion yuan, down by approximately 400 million yuan [4] - New top ten holdings include Xiaomi Group-W and Alibaba-W, with Tencent Holdings seeing over a 20% increase in shares held [4] Group 4 - Guangfa Technology Pioneer Fund reduced its holdings in Seris by 10.76%, with a latest holding of 6.67 million shares valued at 840 million yuan [6] - Guangfa Small Cap Growth Fund significantly reduced its holdings in EVE Energy by 53%, with a latest holding of 3.92 million shares [7] Group 5 - Liu Gesong anticipates a steady recovery in the domestic economy, driven by government policies focusing on livelihood, consumption, and real estate [8] - The technology growth sector is expected to perform independently of economic cycles, with a higher probability of a prosperous market [9] - Liu maintains an optimistic outlook for the overall economic environment in 2024, expecting a gradual recovery of internal economic momentum [9]

Core Viewpoint - The AI Fund West China Li De Hong Kong Stock Connect New Opportunities Mixed A (008861) reported a profit of 2.35 million yuan for Q1 2025, with a net asset value growth rate of 15.3% during the period [3][4]. Fund Performance - As of April 18, the fund's unit net value was 0.564 yuan, and it is classified as a flexible allocation fund primarily investing in pharmaceutical and medical stocks [4]. - The fund's performance over various time frames includes: - 3-month net value growth rate: 12.49%, ranking 52 out of 129 comparable funds [4]. - 6-month net value growth rate: -4.20%, ranking 99 out of 129 comparable funds [4]. - 1-year net value growth rate: 18.80%, ranking 19 out of 129 comparable funds [4]. - 3-year net value growth rate: -25.47%, ranking 72 out of 104 comparable funds [4]. Risk Metrics - The fund's Sharpe ratio over the past three years is 0.0659, ranking 36 out of 100 comparable funds [9]. - The maximum drawdown over the past three years is 50.65%, with the largest single-quarter drawdown occurring in Q1 2022 at 28.84% [11]. Investment Strategy - The fund manager indicated that the Hong Kong stock market experienced a recovery driven by domestic technological innovation post-Chinese New Year, leading to a revaluation of technology leaders [4]. - The fund has adjusted its positions, taking profits from technology growth stocks while increasing allocations to cyclical sectors and pharmaceuticals [4]. Fund Holdings - As of Q1 2025, the fund's total assets amounted to 17.16 million yuan [15]. - The top ten holdings include Tencent Holdings, Alibaba-W, Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing, China Mobile, China Resources Beer, Xiaomi Group-W, Kingdee International, China Biologic Products, BeiGene, and Li Auto-W [17]. Portfolio Allocation - The average stock position over the past three years was 81.35%, compared to the industry average of 86.88% [14]. - The fund reached a peak stock position of 89.48% at the end of Q3 2023, with a low of 72.27% at the end of H1 2023 [14].

Core Viewpoints - The report maintains a bullish outlook on Chinese assets, asserting that the current environment presents more opportunities than risks, especially in light of the recent unexpected U.S. tariffs and rising recession expectations globally [1] - The framework of nominal growth rate differences between China and the U.S. is emphasized as a critical variable for A-share market recovery, with the expectation that this divergence will drive asset price recovery in China [2] Economic Performance - China's economy is expected to achieve a good start in 2025, supported by continuous optimization of supply structure and improvement in effective demand, leading to enhanced internal economic momentum [4] - The macroeconomic policy has shifted since late September 2023, with counter-cyclical adjustment tools being actively deployed, indicating a clear recovery trend in the fundamentals of the Chinese economy [4] Policy Adjustments - There remains significant room for policy adjustments in China, with monetary policy having ample space for further easing, and fiscal policy set to increase spending intensity and pace [4] - The upcoming Politburo meeting is highlighted as a key observation point for potential counter-cyclical policy announcements [4] Real Estate Market - Confidence in the real estate sector has improved, with recent government measures aimed at stabilizing the market showing signs of effectiveness, as evidenced by stabilizing second-hand housing prices in major cities [4] Debt Management - Overall debt risks are deemed controllable, with the government implementing various measures to enhance risk prevention and management, including a comprehensive debt reduction policy [5] Market Sentiment - The announcement from Central Huijin regarding the increase in ETF holdings reflects a commitment to supporting the stability of the capital market, indicating confidence in the future development of China's capital markets [5]