投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年12月18日16时17分 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属震荡偏强，沪金主力收涨0.33%，沪银主力收涨3.44%，铂金主力收涨5.32%，钯金主力收涨涨6.99%。逻辑：①核心 逻辑，短期避险方面，贸易战避险消退，地缘异动风险仍在；美国就业走弱通胀温和，降息预期放缓。②避险属性方面，美欧考虑 停火后向乌克兰提供安全保护，德总理称必要时可对俄军动武。中美经贸磋商成果共识公布。中东等地缘异动风险仍存。③货币属 性方面，美国11月就业反弹超预期，失业率升至四年高位。美联储在重重分歧中下调利率，暗示将暂停行动明年或仅降息一次。 鲍威尔指出，美联储的利率政策已处于良好位置，可以应对未来经济走势，但他拒绝就近期是否会再次降息提供指引。目前市场预 期美联储26年1月不降息概率维持在80%附近，下次降息或到4月。美元指数和美债收益率震荡偏弱；④商品属性方面，白银受到 供应偏紧支撑。铂金氢能产业铂基催化剂需求预期强劲。钯金短期需求仍有韧性，长期面临燃油车市场结构性压力。CRB商品指数 震荡偏弱，人民币升值利空内价格。⑤预计贵金属短期金弱银强，铂钯上行，中期高位震荡 ...

在黄金和白银之后，铂和钯又加速上涨，成为近期贵金属品种中最耀眼的两颗"新星"。 有专家在接受证券时报记者采访时认为，铂市场整体处于结构性扩张阶段，汽车催化剂领域需求保持相对稳定，氢能产业为未来重要增长点，首饰和投资需 求扩张，将对铂价形成较强支撑。 另一贵金属钯最近的涨势也十分惊人。行情数据显示，12月18日，广期所钯期货主力合约收盘大涨6.99%，盘中一度达476.60元/克。今年12月以来，该主 力合约累计涨幅高达27.69%。 对于钯，该专家在受访时认为，基本面趋松在中长期将对钯价形成一定压制，未来重点关注需求端铂钯替代进程演变。 贵金属"新宠"？铂和钯价格涨势加速 在黄金和白银之后，近期贵金属市场中，铂、钯价格亦水涨船高，涨势进一步加速。 在国内期货市场，以铂为例，12月18日，广期所铂期货主力合约价格再度大涨，当天收盘涨幅高达5.32%，盘中最高达549.90元/克，再创上市以来新高。 今年12月以来，广期所铂期货主力合约价格已累计上涨24.91%。 国际市场上，NYMEX铂期货主力合约价格目前已逼近2000美元/盎司，今年12月以来累计已上涨超过18%，年内价格已实现翻倍；而NYMEX钯期货主力合 ...

12月18日，过去一年贵金属市场的强势表现，为中长期配置提供了重要参考。结合国际投行的最新预 测，GTC泽汇资本认为，即便黄金与白银价格已处于历史高位区间，其背后的宏观逻辑仍支持行情在 2026年前后延续。从涨幅结构来看，黄金的稳定性与白银的弹性形成互补，使贵金属在资产组合中的战 略价值进一步凸显。 在具体价格展望上，相关机构数据显示，2026年黄金全年均价有望维持在每盎司4550美元以上，并在上 半年测试更高区间。GTC泽汇资本表示，这一判断与其对全球利率周期和通胀走势的研判相契合。在利 率下行预期逐步兑现的环境中，黄金作为非收益资产的相对吸引力正在增强，而白银则更多受到资金情 绪与工业需求变化的共同影响。 就板块内部表现而言，黄金仍被普遍视为2026年贵金属中的"压舱石"。数据显示，白银全年均价预测在 每盎司56美元左右，尽管短期波动较大，但仍处于高位运行区间。GTC泽汇资本认为，白银在上涨阶段 具备更高弹性，但在供需缺口收窄后，价格波动风险也相对上升，因此更适合阶段性配置而非单一长期 押注。 从宏观背景看，黄金价格的支撑并不仅来自通胀预期，还来自全球货币体系长期面临的购买力风险。 GTC泽汇资本认为，债 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of the end of the year and the beginning of the new year as a critical juncture for investors to identify investment directions amidst global economic changes and market opportunities [1][6]. Group 1: Event Overview - Guotai Junan launched a special live broadcast titled "Opening Red" on December 18, featuring international investment master Jim Rogers, who has a long-term bullish outlook on the Chinese capital market [1][5]. - The live broadcast was available on multiple platforms, including Guotai Junan Junhong App and Phoenix Finance, aiming to provide insights into Chinese asset opportunities and global economic conditions [5]. Group 2: Jim Rogers' Insights - Jim Rogers, a co-founder of the Quantum Fund, highlighted his optimistic view on China's future, stating that he holds many Chinese stocks and believes China will become the world's most important economy in the next decade [6]. - He identified sectors such as tourism, transportation, and agriculture as promising investment areas benefiting from China's development [6]. - Rogers expressed confidence in the resilience of the Chinese market, noting its stability compared to other markets that have faced downturns [6]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Rogers advised investors to focus on areas they understand and to avoid being swayed by popular opinions or market noise [7]. - The Guotai Junan Junhong App aims to provide tailored investment strategies based on the insights shared during the broadcast, helping investors seize opportunities in the Chinese capital market by 2026 [7]. Group 4: Service Innovations - Guotai Junan is committed to enhancing investor services through a professional live broadcast matrix and various content offerings, such as "Chief is Here" and "Watch the Market" [8]. - The company is leveraging AI technology to upgrade its Guotai Junan Lingxi App, aiming to provide a more interactive and personalized investment experience for users [9][13]. - The app focuses on four core scenarios: market monitoring, trading, dialogue, and live broadcasting, enhancing service capabilities and decision-making processes for investors [13].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of global economic changes and market opportunities as a critical point for investors to anchor their investment directions, highlighting the role of Guotai Junan in promoting inclusive finance and enhancing long-term investment success for investors [1]. Group 1: Event Highlights - On December 18, Guotai Junan launched a special live broadcast featuring international investment master Jim Rogers, who has a long-term bullish outlook on the Chinese capital market, discussing key topics such as opportunities in Chinese assets and global economic conditions [2]. - Jim Rogers, a co-founder of the Quantum Fund, is recognized as one of the "three great investors" alongside Warren Buffett and George Soros, having achieved a remarkable 4200% investment portfolio return over ten years [7]. Group 2: Investment Insights - Rogers expressed optimism about China's future, stating that he holds many Chinese stocks and believes China will become the world's most important economy in the next decade, presenting numerous opportunities [8]. - He highlighted sectors such as tourism, transportation, and agriculture as areas of investment interest, particularly those benefiting from China's development [8]. - Rogers noted the resilience of the Chinese market, stating that while many markets have collapsed, China has remained stable, and he plans to increase his holdings in Chinese assets during future market downturns [8]. Group 3: Investment Strategy and Tools - Rogers advised investors to focus on areas they understand and to avoid being swayed by popular advice or market noise, encouraging young investors to concentrate on their strengths for long-term wealth accumulation [9]. - Guotai Junan's app aims to provide Chinese investors with tailored investment strategies based on the insights shared during the live broadcast, helping them seize investment opportunities in the Chinese capital market by 2026 [9]. Group 4: Service Innovations - The special live broadcast reflects Guotai Junan's commitment to enhancing investor services and building a professional live broadcast matrix, showcasing their expertise in macroeconomic and asset allocation discussions [11]. - The Guotai Junan Lingxi App has been upgraded to integrate professional capabilities with smart technology, aiming to become a comprehensive AI investment partner for investors [13]. - The app focuses on four core scenarios: market monitoring, trading, dialogue, and live broadcasting, enhancing service capabilities and providing a seamless experience for users [16].

中辉有色观点 | | | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 长线持有 | 美国数据喜忧参半，英国货币政策或宽松，日本央行措辞放松，短期市场流动性风 险偏好较好，世界央行三季度买黄金再创新高。黄金中长期地缘秩序重塑，不确定 | | ★ | | | | | | 性持续存在，央行继续买黄金，长期战略配置价值不变。 | | | | 白银短期故事越来越多、短期投机资金大量涌入，美盘 ETF 资金持续涌入。未来市 | | 白银 | | | | ★★ | 长线持有 | 场押注降息持续、供需缺口连续 5 年持续，全球大财政均对白银长期有利，长期做 | | | | 多逻辑不变。铂钯短期被资金青睐，短期资金高涨情绪延续。 | | 铜 | | 美国虹吸全球铜库存，国内 2026 年铜精矿 TC 长协谈判焦灼，铜易涨难跌，风物宜 | | | 长线持有 | 放长量，建议铜多单继续持有，回调仍是布局良机，中长期对铜依旧看好。 | | ★ | | | | | | 海外锌库存显性化，锌精矿加工费持续下调，下游进入消费淡季，整体供需双弱， | | 锌 | 承压 | 国内淡季去库。隔 ...

供需方面，全球范围内，铂金市场持续处于严重短缺状态，根据WPIC最新统计，2025年全球铂金市场 预计将出现26.4吨的短缺，不过总需求预期也同比下降4%至244.8吨。 对于铂金供应短缺，世界铂金投资协会（WPIC）研究主管Edward Sterck分析，除了矿产供应端的结构 性紧张，一系列因素催生了一场三方地缘性的实物铂金争夺，美国关税政策扰动下市场持续囤积库存、 大量西迁的铂金令伦敦市场供应吃紧；此外中国市场上新铂金期货，出于交割需求也不断加大对实物货 源的吸纳力度。这场 "拉锯战" 持续推高市场紧张情绪，也降低了市场供需状况快速回归宽松的可能 性。 近日，铂金价格走势强劲，现货铂金价格一度超过每盎司1800美元。截至目前，铂金价格年内累计涨幅 已近90%，超过黄金年内涨幅，上演了一场"翻身仗"。 三轮跳涨 铂金价格年内翻倍 今年以来，NYMEX铂金期货价格累计上涨105%，是继白银后又一贵金属实现翻倍上涨。 交易人士称，这轮铂金价格的涨势受到多重因素的共同驱动，包括现货供应持续收紧、新能源产业政策 导向、地缘局势变化等。 从价格走势看，11月以来，NYMEX铂金期货价格已累计上涨超15%。拉长周期看， ...

今年是贵金属价格集体冲高的一年，继黄金和白银之后，铂金再次成为市场上最受关注的资产之一。 近日，铂金价格走势强劲，现货铂金价格一度超过每盎司1800美元。截至目前，铂金价格年内累计涨幅 已近90%，超过黄金年内涨幅，上演了一场"翻身仗"。 三轮跳涨 铂金价格年内翻倍 今年以来，NYMEX铂金期货价格累计上涨105%，是继白银后又一贵金属实现翻倍上涨。 近期，中国铂钯期货期权上市、欧洲燃油车禁令政策调整的讨论，以及"十五五"规划提到氢能关键定 位，而铂金作为氢燃料催化的首选催化剂，其利用价值更加凸显。多重利好集中推动铂金价格加速上 行。 供需方面，全球范围内，铂金市场持续处于严重短缺状态，根据WPIC最新统计，2025年全球铂金市场 预计将出现26.4吨的短缺，不过总需求预期也同比下降4%至244.8吨。 部分黄金饰品商家转换赛道 记者在深圳水贝市场看到不少新开的铂金饰品店铺，一些饰品铺位也减少了黄金饰品的摆放数量，转而 销售铂金饰品。 （水贝市场铂金饰品价格 吴家明/摄） 12月16日，记者看到水贝市场的铂金饰品克价在440元左右。有现场店铺的工作人员表示，今年以来铂 金饰品价格有过几波"行情"，今年6月的时 ...

Core Viewpoint - The tightening of personal precious metals trading business by banks acting as agents for the Shanghai Gold Exchange is aimed at managing market risks, complying with regulatory pressures, and fulfilling investor suitability obligations, leading to a more concentrated and mature market structure in precious metals investment [2][5][9]. Group 1: Bank Adjustments - Several banks, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), have announced adjustments to their personal precious metals trading business, actively clearing inactive "three-no" clients (no positions, no inventory, no debts) [4]. - ICBC's announcement indicates that from December 19, 2025, it will transfer the balances of these clients' margin accounts to their linked settlement accounts and terminate related business functions [4]. - Other banks such as Agricultural Bank of China and China Postal Savings Bank have also made similar announcements regarding the termination of agreements with inactive clients [4]. Group 2: Market Implications - Experts believe that the banks' actions will lead to a reduction in speculative trading and a reassessment of risk-return characteristics of gold investments by individual investors [7][8]. - The tightening of bank channels may result in a decrease in trading volume and liquidity in the short term, but it is expected to guide funds towards more transparent and compliant markets in the long term [8][9]. - The exit of individual investors is likely to concentrate market participants among institutional clients, leading to more rational trading behavior and potentially reducing market volatility [9]. Group 3: Business Transformation - The retail precious metals business of banks is undergoing a transformation from trading channels to asset allocation services, moving away from high-risk, high-leverage trading towards more stable financial products like gold ETFs [11][12]. - This shift indicates that banks are focusing on providing asset allocation services and standardized financial products rather than merely facilitating trading and selling physical gold [12]. - The future development of bank precious metals business is expected to remain significant, with opportunities in promoting lower-risk investment products that meet residents' demand for gold as a hedge and asset allocation [12].

兴业期货：新单可轻仓试多铂金PT2602合约 铂期货主力涨近4%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 机构 核心观点 兴业期货 新单可轻仓试多铂金PT2602合约 国信期货 铂钯短期仍处于偏强格局 12月17日盘中，铂期货主力合约遭遇一波急速上涨，最高上探至515.00元。截止发稿，铂主力合约报 512.00元，涨幅3.84%。 昨日彭博消息，欧盟正计划将原定于2035年实施的燃油车全面禁售政策推迟至2040年，有利于改善铂钯 下游需求预期。加之金银价格处于绝对高位，铂钯相对金银明显偏低估，估值潜在补涨空间较大。新单 可轻仓试多铂金PT2602合约。 美国就业数据相对偏弱，尤其是失业率升至四年高位，可能进一步强化市场对货币政策将维持宽松的预 期，从而为包括铂钯在内的贵金属板块提供金融属性层面的支撑。同时，在白银及黄金高位震荡期间， 兼具工业与金融属性的铂族金属成为部分资金进行板块内轮动的重点方向。技术面上，铂金主力合约关 键支撑位于460元/克附近，若能持稳则有望继续上探500元/克附近阻力。整体来看，铂钯短期仍处于偏 强格局，但需警惕连续上涨后可能出现的波动加剧风险。操作上建议维持回调布局思路，轻仓参与 ...