Report Industry Investment Rating - The report provides a cautious and bullish rating for both gold and silver, and suggests shorting the gold-silver ratio at high levels while pausing on options [8][9] Core Viewpoints - After the Fed's interest rate cut, gold prices are expected to oscillate, but the financial attribute premium remains, so it's advisable to buy on dips. Silver's financial attribute premium is weakened, but its industrial attribute provides support, and the gold-silver ratio is expected to narrow. Both are likely to maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term [8] Market Analysis - US initial jobless claims last week dropped to 231,000, the largest decline in nearly four years, but continuing claims remained above 1.9 million, indicating some pressure in the labor market. The US government is promoting a $5 billion mineral investment fund [1] Futures Quotes and Volumes - On September 18, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 835.34 yuan/gram and closed at 824.10 yuan/gram, down 1.31% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 9,924.00 yuan/kg and closed at 9,835.00 yuan/kg, down 0.72% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 646,031 lots, and the open interest was 395,854 lots [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On September 18, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.101%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The 10-year to 2-year spread was 0.544%, down 0.21 BP from the previous trading day [3] Position and Volume Changes on the SHFE - On September 18, 2025, on the Au2508 contract, long positions changed by 129 lots, and short positions changed by 176 lots. The total trading volume of gold contracts on the previous trading day was 485,609 lots, a change of 32.56% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2508 contract, long positions changed by 2 lots, and short positions changed by -2 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts on the previous trading day was 1,305,261 lots, a change of 0.13% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 975.66 tons, down 4.29 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,205.14 tons, up 15.53 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On September 18, 2025, the domestic gold premium was -8.58 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -823.15 yuan/kg. The ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was about 83.79, down 0.60% from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold-silver ratio was 88.92, a change of 2.72% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Analysis - On September 18, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 49,462 kg, down 13.44% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 547,182 kg, down 26.90% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,776 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 10,320 kg [7] Strategy Recommendations - Gold: Cautiously bullish, buy on dips, with the Au2512 contract oscillating between 815 yuan/gram and 850 yuan/gram [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish, with the Ag2512 contract oscillating between 9,800 yuan/kg and 10,050 yuan/kg [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: Pause [9]

As gold prices have climbed to new records, silver has emerged from the shadows — outshining the yellow metal with its own gain and reaching its highest price in 14 years. ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] Core Viewpoints - With the upcoming interest rate meeting, the market is shifting towards trading the possibility of unexpectedly loose monetary policy this year. It is expected that the prices of gold and silver will mainly show a volatile and upward trend in the near future, but it is necessary to be vigilant against the retracement of gains after the interest rate cut catalyst materializes [8][9] Market Analysis - The US Senate approved the nomination of Milan to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, and President Trump signed the appointment document. The market may question the independence of the Federal Reserve. The US Court of Appeals ruled that Fed Governor Cook could continue to serve, and the Trump administration will appeal the court's decision. The US Department of Commerce announced that it has established a process to include more steel and aluminum derivatives in the tariff scope and will consider requests to impose tariffs on more imported auto parts in the coming weeks [1] Futures Market Gold - On September 16, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 833.48 yuan/gram and closed at 842.08 yuan/gram, a change of 1.26% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 844.18 yuan/gram and closed at 842.10 yuan/gram, a 0.29% decline from the afternoon close [2] Silver - On September 16, 2025, the Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 10,020.00 yuan/kg and closed at 10,108.00 yuan/kg, a change of 0.91% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 387,860 lots, and the open interest was 195,504 lots. In the night session, it opened at 10,149 yuan/kg and closed at 10,070 yuan/kg, a 0.63% decline from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yields and Spreads - On September 16, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.030%, up 0.19 BP from the previous trading day. The 10-year - 2-year spread was 0.529%, down 0.44 BP from the previous trading day [3] SHFE Gold and Silver Positions and Trading Volume Changes Gold - On the Au2508 contract, the long positions changed by 106 lots, and the short positions also changed by 106 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Gold contracts on the previous trading day was 313,989 lots, a change of 24.13% from the previous trading day [4] Silver - On the Ag2508 contract, the long positions changed by 2 lots, and the short positions changed by -2 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contracts on the previous trading day was 978,146 lots, a change of 18.81% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Holdings - The gold ETF holdings were 979.95 tons, an increase of 3.15 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF holdings were 15,152.9 tons, an increase of 83.30 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking Spot-Futures Spread - On September 16, 2025, the domestic gold premium was -20.12 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -1,025.41 yuan/kg [6] Gold-Silver Ratio - The price ratio of the SHFE gold and silver main contracts was approximately 83.31, a change of 0.35% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold-silver ratio was 86.21, a change of -2.06% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Data - On September 16, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+D market was 43,660 kg, a change of 29.26% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 508,792 kg, a change of 33.89% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,562 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 4,110 kg [7]

Group 1: Gold Price Surge - Gold prices reached a new high of $3697.7 per ounce on September 16, 2023, driven by expectations of an imminent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1][3] - Analysts predict that gold could rise to $4000 per ounce by the end of the year, with some forecasts suggesting it could reach $4500 or even $5000 under certain conditions [4][3] Group 2: Silver Price Performance - Silver has seen a more aggressive increase, with a year-to-date rise of 48%, outperforming gold's 40% increase [5] - The surge in silver prices is attributed to both its safe-haven appeal and its industrial demand, particularly in solar energy and electric vehicles [5][9] Group 3: Investment Trends - Gold ETFs have seen significant growth, with total assets reaching 160 billion yuan, a 120% increase from the beginning of the year [8] - The influx of funds into silver ETFs is also notable, with projections indicating a substantial increase in physical holdings by 2025 [8][9] Group 4: Market Dynamics - The U.S. manufacturing index dropped sharply to -8.7 in September, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity, which supports the case for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve [3] - Concerns over the Federal Reserve's independence and strong physical demand from central banks and private investors are key factors driving the gold market [4]

Core Viewpoint - Gold and silver prices have reached new highs, driven by expectations of imminent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with predictions suggesting gold could reach $4,000 per ounce by the end of the year [1][3]. Group 1: Gold Market Insights - On September 16, gold prices peaked at $3,697.7 per ounce, marking a new historical high, while silver reached $42.77 per ounce, the highest in nearly 14 years [1]. - The New York Fed reported a significant drop in the U.S. manufacturing index, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity, which supports the case for a preventive rate cut by the Federal Reserve [2]. - Goldman Sachs predicts that gold prices could rise to $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026, with extreme scenarios suggesting prices could approach $5,000 per ounce if a small percentage of private U.S. debt holdings shift to gold [3]. Group 2: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver has seen a year-to-date increase of 48%, outpacing gold's 40% rise, driven by both safe-haven demand and its industrial applications [4]. - The global demand for silver is expected to surge due to the acceleration of energy transition, with solar photovoltaic installations projected to exceed 600 GW by 2025 [4]. - The World Silver Association forecasts a supply-demand gap of 3,659 tons in 2025, marking the fifth consecutive year of shortage, primarily driven by industrial demand [8]. Group 3: Investment Trends - The gold ETF market has seen significant growth, with total assets reaching 160 billion yuan, a 120% increase from the beginning of the year, indicating strong investor interest [7]. - Institutional and individual investors are increasingly participating in the silver market, with a notable rise in silver ETF holdings and speculative positions in futures markets [4][7]. - Recent price surges in precious metals have prompted banks to adjust trading rules and increase investment thresholds to mitigate market risks [9].

Group 1: Gold Price Surge - Gold prices reached a new high of $3,697.7 per ounce on September 16, marking a historical peak [2] - Analysts predict that gold could rise to $4,000 per ounce by the end of the year due to anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4][7] - The New York Fed reported a significant decline in the U.S. manufacturing index, indicating economic contraction, which supports the case for a rate cut [6] Group 2: Silver Price Dynamics - Silver prices have surged by 48% this year, outpacing gold's 40% increase, driven by both safe-haven demand and industrial applications [8][9] - The global energy transition and increased demand for silver in photovoltaic applications are key factors contributing to silver's price rise [8] - Institutional and individual investors are driving significant inflows into silver, with ETF holdings and speculative positions at historical highs [9][12] Group 3: Investment Trends - Gold ETFs have seen a remarkable increase in scale, growing over 120% from 695.58 billion to 1.6 trillion [12] - The top three gold ETFs account for over 70% of the market, indicating a preference for established funds among investors [12] - The World Silver Association forecasts a supply-demand gap of 3,659 tons for silver in 2025, highlighting ongoing industrial demand [13] Group 4: Market Adjustments - Several banks have adjusted their gold and silver trading rules in response to increased volatility, raising investment thresholds and modifying margin requirements [14][15] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange has also implemented changes to margin levels and trading limits to mitigate market risks [14][15]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in gold and silver prices, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with gold reaching a new high of $3697.7 per ounce and silver hitting $42.77 per ounce, the highest in 14 years [1][3]. Group 1: Gold Price Dynamics - Gold prices have increased significantly, with predictions suggesting it could reach $4000 per ounce by the end of the year due to anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts [3][6]. - Goldman Sachs forecasts a baseline price of $4000 per ounce by mid-2026, with extreme scenarios pushing it close to $5000 per ounce if a small percentage of private U.S. Treasury holdings flow into gold [7]. Group 2: Silver Price Surge - Silver has outperformed gold with a year-to-date increase of 48%, attributed to both its safe-haven appeal and industrial demand, particularly in solar energy and electric vehicles [8]. - The influx of funds into silver is driven by institutional investors and retail participation, with significant growth in silver ETF holdings and speculative positions in futures markets [8][11]. Group 3: Market Indicators and Economic Context - The U.S. manufacturing index dropped sharply to -8.7, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity, which supports the case for a preemptive rate cut by the Federal Reserve [4]. - The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 95.9% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in the upcoming meeting, further bolstering gold's appeal as an investment [6]. Group 4: Retail Price Adjustments - Retail prices for gold jewelry have reached new highs, with prices for brands like Chow Sang Sang and Lao Feng Xiang exceeding 1080 yuan per gram [10]. - The total scale of gold ETFs has surpassed 160 billion yuan, reflecting a significant increase of over 120% since the beginning of the year, highlighting strong investor interest [10][11]. Group 5: Supply and Demand Outlook - The World Silver Association predicts a supply-demand gap of 3659 tons for silver by 2025, driven by industrial demand, particularly in solar energy and electric vehicles [11]. - Citigroup forecasts silver prices to reach $40 within three months and $43 within 6 to 12 months, indicating strong bullish sentiment in the market [11].

Core Viewpoint - Recent rumors about multiple gold merchants in Shenzhen's Shui Bei area going bankrupt and closing operations have caused concern among industry participants and investors, but investigations reveal that most businesses are operating normally [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Situation - Reports indicated that over ten gold merchants in Shui Bei suddenly closed, affecting more than a hundred downstream wholesale merchants who are struggling to recover pre-paid funds [1]. - A visit to the Shui Bei gold market showed bustling activity, with most merchants, including those listed in the rumors, continuing normal operations, except for a few like Yue Bao Xin, which has temporarily ceased operations [1][2]. Group 2: Company Specifics - Yue Bao Xin, a smaller company in the Shui Bei area, was found to have its premises sealed by property management, indicating a localized issue rather than a widespread industry crisis [1]. - The Shenzhen Gold and Jewelry Association confirmed that the majority of businesses mentioned in the rumors are still operating normally and that the situation has been exaggerated online [2]. Group 3: Regulatory Response - The association stated that law enforcement is involved in addressing issues with specific companies, and affected merchants are encouraged to pursue legal avenues for recourse [2]. - Investors are advised to rely on verified information and make informed decisions regarding precious metal investments, acknowledging the inherent market risks [2].

21世纪经济报道记者 叶麦穗 黄金价格再创新高。9月16日， 亚洲时段（截至北京时间18点），黄金最高触及3697.7美元/盎司，再度 刷新历史新高。与此同时，白银也跟着上冲至42.77美元/盎司，也刷新了近14年来的高点。 对于金银一路走高的支撑因素，市场认为主要是美联储本周召开议息会议，美联储降息板上钉钉。这让 压在贵金属身上的"大山"移除，甚至有机构认为今年底黄金会摸高至4000美元/盎司，白银也会刷新 2011年49.84美元/盎司的历史高点。 黄金白银年内大涨超四成 纽约联储周一发布的数据显示，美国9月制造业指数急剧下降近21个点，录得-8.7，显著低于市场预期 的5.0。该指数低于零表明制造业活动处于萎缩状态。当月，新订单指数与出货量指数均跌至2024年4月 以来的最低水平，反映出国内需求明显放缓。数据表明，当前制造业面临显著下行压力。这在一定程度 上与此前美国惨淡的非农数据、初请失业金人数交相验证，助推美联储在本周进行预防式降息。 据CME"美联储观察"：美联储本周降息25个基点的概率为95.9%，降息50个基点的概率为4.1%。美联储 10月累计降息25个基点的概率为23.1%，累计降息50个 ...

市场普遍预计，美联储将在9月17日结束的货币政策会议上降息。特朗普一直敦促美联储降息，并多次 批评美联储主席鲍威尔行动过于迟缓。 黄金，传统上被视为抵御地缘政治和经济风险的首选对冲工具，在低利率环境中也表现出色。 咨询公司Metals Focus的董事总经理Philip Newman表示："金价正处于未知领域，此前在3400美元和 3500美元区间停留的时间并不长。在这轮价格上涨之后，我们预计可能会出现一次回调，但我们也认为 这对那些在场外观望、等待入场的投资者来说是一个买入机会。到2026年，我们预计黄金价格将突破 4000美元。"他还补充说，该公司预计到今年年底金价将攀升至约3800美元。 此外，得益于黄金的强势以及在供应短缺担忧下坚挺的实物需求，另一贵金属白银价格也表现强势。白 银既是一种投资资产，也是一种用于电子和太阳能电池板的工业金属。周二，白银价格约为每盎司 42.50美元，达到了14年来的最高水平。 印度领先白银进口商Amrapali Group Gujarat的首席执行官Chirag Thakkar表示："除了工业领域的常规用 途外，投资者兴趣的不断增长也有力地推动了银价上涨。" 最近，诸如对 ...