Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in the US stock market is primarily driven by heightened expectations of interest rate cuts following disappointing employment data, leading to a significant influx of capital into financial stocks [3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose over 400 points, nearing 48,000, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 showed slower gains, indicating a divergence in market performance [1]. - The ADP employment report revealed a decrease of 32,000 jobs in November, contrary to expectations of an increase of 40,000, reinforcing market confidence in imminent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4]. Group 2: Sector Reactions - Financial stocks, such as Wells Fargo and American Express, experienced significant gains as investors anticipated lower financing costs and improved profitability due to potential interest rate cuts [4]. - Conversely, tech stocks like Microsoft, Nvidia, and Broadcom faced declines, with Microsoft dropping 2.5% amid rumors of reducing AI-related sales quotas, highlighting the market's tendency to differentiate between winners and losers [4]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The current market environment suggests a focus on financial stocks with solid risk management and stable earnings, as they are expected to benefit directly from interest rate cuts [5]. - Additionally, sectors supported by genuine demand, such as consumer stocks boosted by the holiday shopping season and quality tech stocks related to data centers, are recommended for investment, while avoiding speculative AI stocks lacking performance backing [5].

Core Viewpoint - Silver has emerged as the best-performing investment asset of the year, with a year-to-date increase of 103%, significantly outpacing gold's 60% rise [1][3]. Market Performance - On December 3, spot silver reached a record high of $58.945 per ounce, with a daily increase of nearly 1% [1]. - COMEX silver prices surpassed $59 per ounce, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange's main silver contract rose to 13,866 yuan per kilogram, marking an increase of 2.7% [1][4]. - Silver has shown a consistent upward trend, with prices rising for eight consecutive months [4]. Economic Indicators - The upcoming U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report is anticipated to show a slight increase in inflation, with overall PCE expected to rise to 2.8% year-on-year [3]. - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is estimated at 89.2%, with a cumulative cut of 50 basis points by January having a probability of 25.7% [3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global silver market is projected to face a structural supply deficit of approximately 95 million ounces by 2025, marking the fifth consecutive year of supply shortages [4]. - Global silver supply is expected to remain stable at around 813 million ounces, while total demand is forecasted to decline by about 4% to 1.12 billion ounces [4]. - The photovoltaic industry is expected to drive silver demand, with an estimated increase of nearly 150 million ounces annually from 2024 to 2030 due to new solar installations [4]. Inventory and Market Sentiment - Silver inventories in China have dropped to near a ten-year low, with record exports of over 660 tons in October [5]. - The market sentiment is bullish, driven by expectations of a rate cut, but caution is advised due to the significant year-to-date price increase of over 100% [5][6]. - The largest silver ETF, SLV, reported a holding of 15,863.15 tons, reflecting a daily increase of 60.79 tons, indicating sustained high demand [6].

Report Overview - **Report Title**: Futures Research Report - Non-ferrous Metals Daily Report - **Report Date**: December 3, 2025 - **Author**: Long Aoming 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Macro Level**: The expectation of interest rate cuts is rising, which is beneficial for non-ferrous metals. The probability of an interest rate cut in December is close to 90%, and the US dollar index is continuously weakening, approaching the 99 mark [6][7][8]. - **Copper**: Overnight, copper prices rose and then fell, and today they maintained a slightly stronger oscillation with a narrowing amplitude. The trading volume of Shanghai copper continued to increase. Domestically, the social inventory of electrolytic copper decreased, the downstream acceptance increased, and the spot premium strengthened. Technically, attention should be paid to the pressure at the 90,000 mark [6]. - **Aluminum**: Today, Shanghai aluminum oscillated strongly, with the trading volume continuing to increase, and approaching the 22,000 mark at the end of the session. The inventories of electrolytic aluminum at home and abroad remained stable at a low level. As the aluminum price rose, downstream buyers were hesitant due to high prices and made purchases as needed, and the spot discount remained weak. Technically, attention should be paid to the pressure at the 22,000 mark [7]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, Shanghai nickel decreased in volume, and today it rebounded with a decrease in volume, showing a V-shaped trend as a whole. The spot premium continued to strengthen, providing support for the futures price. Technically, attention should be paid to the pressure at the 120,000 mark [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: The copper market is facing a supply shortage, and the gap may reach 30% by 2035. The expected supply shortage is due to factors such as declining ore grades, rising capital costs, and long project development cycles [10]. - **Nickel**: On December 3, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 117,300 - 122,700 yuan/ton, with an average price of 120,000 yuan/ton, a rise of 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 4,700 - 5,000 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 4,850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [11]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **Copper**: Charts include copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper inventory and cancellation warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][13][16][20][21]. - **Aluminum**: Charts include aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, Shanghai-London ratio, and aluminum bar inventory [25][27][29][31][33][35]. - **Nickel**: Charts include nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME inventory, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [37][39][41][43][45][47].

12月3日，根据欧盟统计局周二公布的数据，欧元区11月调和CPI同比初值从上月的2.1%加速至2.2%。 具体数据显示，欧元区11月CPI年率初值录得2.2%，高于10月的2.1%，保持在欧洲央行的中期目标水平 上方，预期为2.1%。剔除波动较大的食品和燃料价格后，核心通胀率持稳于2.4%，主要受服务业价格 持续快速上涨支撑，而耐用品价格涨幅保持温和。最新的通胀数据证实了欧洲央行自身的观点，即通胀 已基本得到控制，决策者现在有充足的时间来观察价格走势，然后再考虑任何进一步的行动。受此影 响，市场几乎完全排除了欧洲央行在今年最后一次会议上降息的可能性，并认为明年采取任何宽松政策 的可能性仅为四分之一。 另外，美国银行周一表示，鉴于疲软的劳动力市场状况以及政策制定者近期暗示可能降息的言论，该券 商现在预计美联储将在12月再降息25个基点，而此前的预期是这家央行本月晚些时候将维持利率不变。 在一份报告中，包括阿迪蒂亚・巴韦（AdityaBhave）在内的分析师列出了推动其更新预测的几大因 素。私营部门招聘疲软、美联储近期发布的劳动力市场状况调查不及预期，此外"美联储主席鲍威尔既 未直接、也未通过媒体反驳市场对12月 ...

| | | [Table_Report] 相关报告 服务消费景气提升，科技硬件延续涨价 [Table_Authors] 方奕(分析师) 中观景气 12 月第 1 期 本报告导读： 中观景气延续分化的增长格局，新兴科技景气仍强，高性能存储价格延续快速上涨， 游戏供给偏宽松；服务消费景气明显提升，地产周期和耐用品需求仍承压。 投资要点： | | 021-38031658 | | --- | --- | | | fangyi2@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880520120005 | | | 陶前陈(研究助理) | | | 0755-23976164 | | | taoqianchen@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880125070014 | | | 张逸飞(分析师) | 资产概览：银价铜价创历史新高 2025.12.01 外资与融资资金重回流入 2025.12.01 消费景气线索增多，科技制造延续增长 2025.11.26 ETF 流入明显，融资资金与外资有所流出 2025.11.24 资产概览：美元兑日元逼近 160 关口 2025.11.24 策 略 研 究 告 请务必阅读正文 ...

周三临近欧洲开盘，黄金在短线反弹乏力后回调至日内整理区间下沿，但整体仍稳守 4200 美元之上。 随着风险偏好延续，本周的避险力量有所减弱，令金价上方空间暂时受限。不过，美元持续走软与地缘 局势的不确定性仍为金价提供底部支撑。在重点数据公布前，市场更倾向于保持克制。 隔夜美股期货延续稳步走高，投资者情绪整体偏暖，使黄金盘中反弹后快速遇阻，短线多头操作相对谨 慎。临近 ADP 就业报告与 ISM 服务业 PMI 公布，部分资金选择降低仓位，导致日内波动被压缩，黄 金维持弱势整理格局。 在关键数据出炉前，美元维持低位震荡，欧元与澳元早盘表现较为坚挺，而英镑则保持区间运行。美元 走弱令黄金始终处于 4200 上方的支撑带内，但最终的方向仍需等待周五公布的 PCE 物价指数提供更明 确的政策信号。 技术结构显示，隔夜金价在 4155—4150 区域获得稳固买盘支撑后反弹，目前 4200 仍是日内多空争夺的 关键。若能突破 4245—4250 的压制区，有望进一步打开上行空间，测试 4264—4265，并向 4300 心理 关口延伸。反之，一旦跌破 4200，预计会吸引逢低买盘回流，而 4150 依然是更深层的重要防守 ...

客户端 文章来源：金投网 【要闻速递】 周一出炉的美国ISM制造业PMI数据表现不佳，强化了市场对美联储12月10日的降息预期，而且美国总 统特朗普表示，计划在明年初宣布接替美联储主席鲍威尔的人选。目前哈赛特是热门候选人，哈赛特被 认为与美国总统特朗普的政府关系密切，支持美国加速降息。 俄罗斯总统外交政策助理乌沙科夫（Yuri Ushakov）周三表示，俄罗斯和美国未能就乌克兰和平达成妥 协，和平既没有更近一步，也没有变得更遥远。他指出，双方未能在最棘手的问题之一--领土争端上取 得妥协。 投资者也将关注本周计划公布的关键数据，包括周三的11月ADP就业数据，以及周五将公布的美联储首 选通胀指标--9月个人消费支出（PCE）指数。 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 文章来源：金投网 【要闻速递】 德商银行：预计未来一年内金价将上涨至4400美元/盎司。预计未来一年银价将进一步上涨，尽管涨幅 温和，但有望达到59美元/盎司。 【最新现货白银行情解析】 现货白银昨日早盘小幅低开在57.687的位置后行情回补58的缺口后回落，日线最低给到了56.531的位置 后行情震荡拉升，尾盘最高触及到了 ...

【要闻速递】 地缘紧张局势显著升温：特朗普宣称将对贩毒集团实施陆地打击；普京威胁切断乌克兰海上通道并加强 军事行动，俄乌冲突呈现升级态势，持续推升市场避险情绪。 特朗普暗示哈塞特为下任美联储主席人选，其被视为偏鸽派人物，强化了市场对宽松货币政策的预期。 摘要今日周三(12月3日)亚盘时段，金价回落至4,210美元附近，交易员在数据公布前获利了结令涨势暂 歇。市场紧盯周三ADP就业与ISM服务业PMI，以判美联储动向。白银受益宏观环境保持韧性，下行受 限。投资者预期美联储下周或降息25基点，鸽派倾向支撑无息资产需求，缓冲贵金属回调。铂金测试 1,620–1,630美元支撑，失守或下探50日均线。整体降息预期与避险需求仍为贵金属提供底部支撑。 今日周三(12月3日)亚盘时段，金价回落至4,210美元附近，交易员在数据公布前获利了结令涨势暂歇。 市场紧盯周三ADP就业与ISM服务业PMI，以判美联储动向。白银受益宏观环境保持韧性，下行受限。 投资者预期美联储下周或降息25基点，鸽派倾向支撑无息资产需求，缓冲贵金属回调。铂金测试1,620– 1,630美元支撑，失守或下探50日均线。整体降息预期与避险需求仍为贵金属提 ...

Group 1: Silver Market Performance - Silver prices reached a new historical high of $58.945 per ounce on December 3, with a year-to-date increase of 103%, significantly outperforming gold, which rose 60% this year [1][3] - COMEX silver prices surpassed $59 per ounce, with a daily increase of 1.47%, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange silver contract rose to 13,866 yuan per kilogram, marking an increase of 2.7% [1][4] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global silver market is projected to face a structural supply deficit of approximately 9.5 million ounces in 2025, marking the fifth consecutive year of supply shortages [4] - Global silver supply is expected to remain stable at around 813 million ounces, with a slight increase of about 1% in recycled supply, while total demand is anticipated to decline by approximately 4% to 1.12 billion ounces [5] - The photovoltaic industry is expected to drive long-term silver demand, with the International Energy Agency forecasting an increase in solar capacity that could add nearly 150 million ounces of silver demand annually by 2030 [5] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The market anticipates a 89.2% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, which is expected to bolster bullish sentiment in the silver market [3] - Despite the significant year-to-date increase in silver prices, the market is showing signs of being overbought, with potential sensitivity to macroeconomic data that could trigger corrections [6] - The current gold-silver ratio has decreased to around 78, indicating potential for further correction towards historical averages, while expectations of continued rate cuts may reinforce trading strategies focused on this ratio [6] Group 4: ETF Holdings - The largest silver ETF, SLV, reported a holding of 15,863.15 tons, an increase of 60.79 tons from the previous day, indicating sustained high interest in silver investments [7]

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | 俄乌停战谈判有新进展，主要国家降息预期降低，黄金高位调整。黄金中长期地缘 | | ★ | 长线持有 | 秩序重塑，不确定性持续存在，央行继续买黄金，长期战略配置价值不变。 | | 白银 | | 短期交割逼仓以及低库存引发白银大涨，全球大财政均对白银长期有利。不过现货 高升水、白银期货波动率飙升，昨日上期所库存增加，短期不宜追高，关注波动风 | | ★★ | 不宜追高 | 险。长线多单持有 | | | | 美联储内部分歧严重，美国 ISM 制造业 PMI 不及预期，国内淡季去库，非美铜库存 | | 铜 | 长线持有 | 或逐渐告急，伦铜和沪铜均高位回落，建议不要盲目追高，多单逐渐逢高止盈，中 | | ★ | | 长期，铜依旧看多。 | | 锌 | | 宏观情绪缓和，国内淡季去库，出口积极，现货逢低采购提供价格支撑，短期锌受 | | ★ | 反弹 | 阻于 22800 压力位，宽幅震荡。中长期看，锌供增需减，维持反弹逢高沽空观点。 | | 铅 | 承压 | 12 月原生铅、再生铅检修与复产并存，整体有 ...