Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in COMEX gold futures prices reflect a complex interplay of economic factors, including the end of the U.S. government shutdown and hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve, which have influenced market sentiment and gold's resilience [1] Market Performance - As of the close of A-shares, COMEX gold futures traded around $4180 per ounce, showing a recovery after initially surpassing the $4200 mark [1] - The China Gold ETF (518850) declined by 0.82%, while the Non-ferrous Metals ETF (516650) fell by 1.98%, and the Gold Stocks ETF (159562) decreased by 1.97% [1] Fund Flows - The China Gold ETF (518850) has seen continuous net inflows over the past 11 days, totaling 539 million yuan, with the latest share count reaching 980 million and a total scale of 9.047 billion yuan, both marking all-time highs since inception [1] Economic Context - The end of the U.S. government shutdown and the trade truce have not restored the U.S. economy to normalcy; instead, they may lead to a backlog of data reflecting previous economic impacts [1] - The absence of monthly employment and inflation data has made Federal Reserve officials' statements the primary source of market guidance, amplifying market sentiment based on policy language [1] Price Outlook - The anticipated volatility in expectations may exacerbate the weakness of the dollar, suggesting that gold prices may find support in the medium term [1]

Group 1 - Silver futures are currently trading above 12356, with a recent high of 12580 and a low of 12307, indicating a short-term bullish trend [1] - The weakening US dollar and geopolitical tensions are increasing the attractiveness of silver, although hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials are limiting the upside potential for silver prices [1] - Federal Reserve officials are cautious about predicting a rate cut in December, with various officials expressing that the current interest rates are close to neutral and that there is limited room for easing [1] Group 2 - The end of the longest government shutdown in US history is expected to lead to continued expansionary fiscal policies, with potential tax rebates for low-income families, which may raise inflation expectations [2] - Recent trading analysis suggests that silver futures may see a short-term bullish opportunity, with a target around 12450 and a possibility of breaking the previous high of 12550 [3]

Group 1: Economic Indicators and Market Reactions - Multiple Federal Reserve officials have expressed hawkish views, questioning the necessity of a rate cut in December, leading to a market prediction of less than 50% probability for a rate cut [1][4] - The U.S. stock market saw significant declines, particularly in tech stocks like Nvidia, due to inflation concerns and diverging views among Federal Reserve policymakers regarding the health of the U.S. economy [2][4] - China's social financing increment in October reached its lowest level in over a year, indicating nearly dried-up loan demand, with expectations of slowing industrial output and retail sales growth [1][7] Group 2: Company-Specific Developments - Tesla is reportedly developing features to support Apple's CarPlay system, currently in the testing phase [5] - Tencent's third-quarter revenue exceeded expectations, aided by an agreement with Apple to handle payments for WeChat mini-games and mini-programs, taking a 15% cut [9] - JD.com reported a 15% year-on-year revenue growth in the third quarter, driven by government-led consumption subsidies and strong expansion into new business areas like food delivery [9] Group 3: International Relations and Trade - The European Council agreed to eliminate customs exemptions for packages valued under 150 euros, a move aimed at better managing the surge in small packages, particularly from China [7] - Germany's Chancellor announced that Chinese suppliers like Huawei will be excluded from future telecommunications networks for security reasons, particularly for the 6G network [7][9] - The U.S. President indicated a willingness to remove tariffs on fentanyl-related products from China if the country takes strict measures against fentanyl exports [4][9]

Core Viewpoint - The expectation for interest rate cuts has cooled, leading to fluctuations in COMEX gold futures prices, which briefly surpassed $4,215 before declining to around $4,194 per ounce [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - Gold-related ETFs have experienced declines, with the Huaxia Gold ETF (518850) down 0.51%, the Nonferrous Metals ETF (516650) down 1.24%, and the Gold Stocks ETF (159562) down 1.51% [1] - Major holdings in these ETFs, such as Jiangxi Copper and Zhaojin Mining, have also seen significant drops in their stock prices [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Commentary - Multiple Federal Reserve officials have expressed hesitance regarding the prospect of further rate cuts in December, including San Francisco Fed President Daly, who stated it is too early to determine if a cut is warranted [1] - The market's expectations for a December rate cut have fluctuated, with the latest CME FedWatch Tool indicating a 51.6% probability for a 25 basis point cut and a 48.4% probability for maintaining the current rate [1] Group 3: Gold Price Dynamics - The Federal Reserve's cautious stance is contributing to gold price volatility, with the overall trend remaining strong until clearer policy signals emerge [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - On November 13, gold and silver prices broke through strongly. Gold entered a trend - accelerating phase after breaking through $4200, and silver reached a new high. The rise was driven by factors such as expectations of interest rate cuts, data vacuum, and tight supply - demand patterns [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Key Information - President Trump signed a bill to end the longest government shutdown in US history. The House voted to restart food aid, pay federal employees, and restore the air traffic control system [2]. - 80% of surveyed economists believe the Fed will cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points next month to support the weak labor market [2]. - Chinese President Xi Jinping met with King Felipe VI of Spain, expressing China's willingness to build a comprehensive strategic partnership with Spain [2]. Price Logic - **Gold**: After breaking through $4200, gold entered a trend - strengthening phase, catalyzed by the reinforcement of interest rate cut expectations, data vacuum amplifying weak economic pricing, and the approaching inflection point of the balance sheet. Expectations of a December interest rate cut advanced, real interest rates declined, and the dollar's rebound was limited [3]. - **Silver**: The Shanghai silver futures main contract reached a new high, and London silver also rose. The rise was due to the return of interest rate cut trading, a clear path of balance - sheet expansion, and tight spot supply. High lease rates indicated a tight spot balance, and silver's relative elasticity to gold remained high [3]. Outlook - Attention should be paid to the release schedule of US employment and inflation data from September - October and the policy inclination of Fed officials' speeches. If the December interest rate cut path is confirmed and there are further balance - sheet expansion signals, precious metals will remain in an upward - trending macro window. The price ranges to watch are [4150 - 4320] dollars per ounce for London gold and [52 - 55] dollars per ounce for London silver [4]. Index Information - **Commodity Index**: The commodity index was 2269.39, up 0.47%; the commodity 20 index was 2577.33, up 0.54%; the industrial products index was 2223.17, down 0.01% [45]. - **Precious Metals Index**: On November 13, 2025, the precious metals index was 3445.50, with a daily increase of 2.43%, a 5 - day increase of 5.93%, a 1 - month increase of 1.07%, and a year - to - date increase of 55.73% [46]. - **PPI Commodity Index**: The PPI commodity index was 1352.02, up 0.54% [46].

Core Viewpoint - Asian stock markets joined the global sell-off due to hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials, diminishing hopes for a rate cut in December [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - The Nikkei 225 index fell over 2% at one point [1] - The Australian S&P 200 index dropped by 1.6% [1] - The South Korean Composite Index experienced a decline of 2.8% [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Confusing data schedules have heightened market anxiety, negatively impacting bonds, the dollar, and gold [1]

日韩股市大跌 11月14日，亚太股市主要股指集体低开。其中日经225指数跌1.3%，韩国KOSPI指数跌2.74%。 A股方面，早盘震荡分化，截至午盘，沪指跌0.16%，深成指跌1.1%，创业板指跌1.74%。沪深两市半日 成交额1.23万亿，较上个交易日缩量257亿。全市场超2800只个股上涨。 板块方面，海南、燃气、医药、福建等板块涨幅居前，存储芯片、CPO等板块跌幅居前。 具体来看，福建板块持续拉升，平潭发展（000592）、中国武夷（000797）等10余股涨停。海南板块快 速走强，海马汽车（000572）11天7板。流感概念股延续强势，金迪克5天3板，众生药业（002317）走 出3天2板。银行板块逆势上扬，工行、农行再创历史新高。 零售板块短线拉升，东百集团（600693）8天6板，家家悦（603708）、国光连锁（605188）、中百集团 （000759）、三江购物（601116）、汇嘉时代（603101）等纷纷走高。消息面上，国家统计局发布的数 据显示，10月份，社会消费品零售总额为46291亿元，同比增长2.9%。其中，除汽车以外的消费品零售 额42036亿元，增长4.0%。1—10月份，社 ...

Market Overview - Major stock indices in the Asia-Pacific region opened lower, with Japan's Nikkei 225 down 1.3% and South Korea's KOSPI down 2.74% [1] - A-shares showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.16%, the Shenzhen Component down 1.1%, and the ChiNext Index down 1.74% [1][2] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.23 trillion yuan, a decrease of 25.7 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance - The Hainan, gas, pharmaceutical, and Fujian sectors saw significant gains, while storage chips and CPO sectors experienced notable declines [5] - The Fujian sector continued to rise, with stocks like Pingtan Development and China Wuyi hitting the daily limit [5] - The banking sector performed well, with Industrial and Agricultural Bank of China reaching historical highs [5] Retail Sector Insights - In October, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 46,291 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [5] - Excluding automobiles, retail sales were 42,036 billion yuan, growing by 4.0% [5] - From January to October, total retail sales amounted to 412,169 billion yuan, up 4.3%, with non-automobile retail sales at 372,160 billion yuan, increasing by 4.9% [5] Lithium Battery Sector Activity - The lithium battery sector remained active, with stocks like Furi Shares and Shida Shenghua seeing consecutive gains [6] - The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate surged from 49,300 yuan per ton on July 15 to 151,500 yuan per ton, an increase of over 200% [6] Gold and Commodity Market - Spot gold prices reached 4,200 USD per ounce, reflecting a daily increase of 0.87% [9] - Spot silver was reported at 53.39 USD per ounce, with a daily rise of 2.12% [9] - Analysts suggest that the recent movements in gold prices are driven by expectations of interest rate cuts and economic data trends [9]

打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【要闻速递】 今日周五(11月14日)亚盘时段，白银期货目前交投于12410一线上方，今日开盘于12573元/千克，截至发 稿，白银期货暂报12479元/千克，上涨1.00%，最高触及12580元/千克，最低下探12307元/千克，目前来 看，白银期货盘内短线偏向看涨走势。 美国白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特表示，十月份的就业报告将不会包含失业率读数。 哈塞特称："住户调查在十月份没有进行，所以我们将只得到一半的就业报告。我们将获得就业岗位部 分的数据，但不会获得失业率，而且这种情况只会持续一个月。"美国的非农就业报告由两项调查组成 ——一项是针对企业的调查（产生主要的非农就业人数），另一项是针对住户的调查（负责失业率）。 虽然许多企业保留记录并以电子方式报告数据，但要回顾性地联系工人，并要求他们回忆十月份特定一 周的就业状况，将更难以进行。 此前美国农业部下属的国家农业统计局（NASS）表示，将于11月发布多份关键农业报告，其中包括因 美国政府持续停摆而未能在10月发布的月度农作物供需报告。 随着美国政府恢复运转，市场预期经济数据将重新发布，并可能揭示就业结构的疲弱，从而提升 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The hawkish remarks from Fed officials led to a triple - kill in the US stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets, causing the prices of gold and silver to decline. The gold price is expected to fluctuate, and the silver price still mainly follows the gold price. The premiums of Shanghai gold and silver have changed, and the market is waiting for data verification [4][6]. - After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation shifted to an economic recession expectation, which supported the precious metal prices. However, factors such as the US government shutdown, Fed rate cuts, and Sino - US tariff concerns have improved, weakening the support for precious metal prices [10][14]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: The hawkish remarks from Fed officials led to a triple - kill in the US stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets, causing the gold price to decline. The US three major stock indexes and European three major stock indexes all closed down. The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond rose 5.18 basis points to 4.121%, the US dollar index fell 0.30% to 99.18, and the offshore RMB appreciated against the US dollar to 7.0974. The COMEX gold futures fell 0.93% to $4174.5 per ounce. The basis was - 3.05, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 810 kilograms to 90426 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average. The main net long position decreased [4][5]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold, the silver price reached a record high and then declined significantly. The COMEX silver futures fell 2.30% to $52.23 per ounce. The basis was - 20, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts increased by 954 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average. The main net long position increased [6]. 2. Daily Tips - **Today's Focus**: Attention should be paid to China's series of economic data, intensive speeches by ECB and Fed officials, and the revised value of the euro - zone's Q3 GDP. The hawkish remarks from Fed officials led to a decline in the precious metal prices, and the market is waiting for data verification [4][6]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The fundamental situation is neutral. The factors affecting the gold price include the shift from inflation expectation to economic recession expectation after Trump took office, but the support from factors such as the US government shutdown, Fed rate cuts, and Sino - US tariff concerns has weakened [4][10]. - **Silver**: The fundamental situation is neutral. The silver price mainly follows the gold price, and factors such as tariff concerns have a greater impact on the silver price [6][14]. 4. Position Data - **Gold**: On November 13, 2025, the long - position volume of the top 20 in Shanghai gold increased by 0.66% to 169,485, the short - position volume decreased by 3.86% to 67,373, and the net long position increased by 3.89% to 102,112 [32]. - **Silver**: On November 13, 2025, the long - position volume of the top 20 in Shanghai silver increased by 2.72% to 398,314, the short - position volume increased by 11.04% to 294,341, and the net long position decreased by 15.26% to 103,973 [33]. 5. Today's Concerns - 08:05: Speech by ECB Governing Council member Vujčić - 09:30: Release of the monthly report on housing sales prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities by the National Bureau of Statistics - 10:00: Release of China's industrial added value above designated size, total retail sales of consumer goods, urban fixed - asset investment, and national real - estate development investment from January to October, and the urban surveyed unemployment rate in October. A press conference on the national economic operation will be held by the State Council Information Office - 15:05: Speeches by ECB Governing Council members Escriva and Vujčić at the Singapore Fintech Festival - 18:00: Release of the revised value of the euro - zone's Q3 GDP - 18:30: Speech by ECB Executive Board member Elderson in Frankfurt - 21:30 (possibly): Release of US retail sales in October - 22:20: Speech by Atlanta Fed President Bostic (FOMC voter in 2027) - 23:00: Speech by ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane - 23:05: Speech by Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid - Next day 03:30: Participation in a fireside chat by Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan - Next day 04:20: Participation in a dialogue by Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic [16]