来源：金十数据 从市场角度看，高盛将非农就业数据落在7万至10万区间描述为对股市最有利的结果，这与经济持续扩 张、既不会重新引发通胀担忧、也不会威胁降息周期的情形相符。这样的结果将支持美国经济正在逐步 放缓而非突然停滞的观点。 相比之下，非农就业数据若低于5万人，则将被解读为低于经济维持稳定的就业增长估计水平，可能因 引发对增长急剧放缓的担忧而令投资者不安。 高盛表示，周五晚间即将发布的美国2025年12月份的非农就业报告不太可能实质性改变市场对美联储政 策的预期，除非数据出现重大意外，因为当前的市场定价已稳固锚定在年中开启宽松政策的路径上。 在致客户的研究报告中，高盛预计这份非农的就业人数增长量约为7万人，与普遍预期基本一致。尽管 非正式的市场"私下预测"暗示存在小幅上行风险，但该行认为，一份接近预期的结果将强化而非打乱现 有的宏观经济叙事。 市场目前定价美联储今年将进行两次25个基点的降息，首次25个基点的降息预计在4月下旬左右。 高盛表示，需要劳动力数据出现"相当戏剧性"的上行或下行意外，才能显著地将这一时点提前或推后。 另一个极端是，高盛表示，若数据高于12.5万人，则可能促使市场重新评估美联储首次降 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report covers various sectors including finance, energy, metals, black commodities, agriculture, and shipping. It provides analysis and forecasts on the market trends of different varieties, suggesting potential investment opportunities and risks in the market. For example, it anticipates a long - term upward trend for precious metals, a short - term strong performance for lithium carbonate, and an overall positive outlook for A - shares [2][3][11]. Summary by Directory 1.当日主要新闻关注 (Main News Focus of the Day) - **International News**: US President Trump announced to buy $200 billion in mortgage - backed securities through Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, aiming to lower mortgage rates. The US Senate passed a resolution restricting Trump's military action against a South American country without congressional authorization. The US initial jobless claims rose to 208,000 last week, slightly below market expectations [6][14]. - **Domestic News**: The Political Bureau Standing Committee of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting, emphasizing the importance of Party leadership in the "15th Five - Year Plan" period. China National Petroleum & Chemical Corporation and China National Aviation Fuel Group were approved to implement a restructuring [7][8]. - **Industry News**: The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council plans to promote strategic and professional restructuring and high - quality mergers and acquisitions in 2026, with potential acceleration in new energy, energy conservation, environmental protection, and construction sectors [8][9]. 2.外盘每日收益情况 (Daily Returns of Overseas Markets) - The S&P 500 rose 0.01%, the European STOXX 50 fell 0.14%, and the Chinese A50 futures dropped 1.06%. ICE Brent crude oil increased 3.83%, and London gold spot rose 0.48%, while London silver fell 1.66% [10]. 3.主要品种早盘评论 (Morning Comments on Major Varieties) Financial - **Stock Index**: A - shares are expected to form a long - term bullish pattern due to supply - side reform, RMB appreciation, and overseas capital inflows [11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds stabilized and rose. The yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond declined. The central bank's open - market operations and economic data influenced the market. The new public - fund sales regulations eased concerns about bond - fund liquidity [12][13]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Crude oil futures rebounded. Trump's statement on South American oil and OPEC's compensation plan affected the market [14]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices declined. High inventory and reduced开工 rates led to a short - term weakening trend [15]. - **Natural Rubber**: Rubber prices are expected to be volatile and bullish due to supply constraints and stable tire production [4][16]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures continued to rebound, but the upward momentum may slow down [17]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass and soda ash futures declined. Attention is on the real - estate industry's recovery and supply - side changes [18]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals are expected to have a long - term upward trend. Gold is supported by a weakening US dollar and central - bank purchases, while silver and platinum are also driven by supply - demand gaps [2][19]. - **Copper**: Copper prices fell at night. Tight concentrate supply and weak downstream demand influenced the market [20]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices declined. Tight concentrate supply and weak downstream demand were the main factors [21]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices continued to correct. The US economic data and Fed's stance affected the market. Supply was stable, and demand was acceptable, but attention is on the impact of the approaching Spring Festival [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Lithium carbonate prices reached new highs. Despite short - term fluctuations, prices are likely to rise due to strong demand and inventory structure [3][24]. Black Commodities - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke are expected to be strong in the short term, supported by supply disruptions, iron - water production recovery, and pre - holiday restocking [25]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron - ore prices may continue to be slightly bullish in the short term, with a small increase in supply and stable demand [26]. - **Steel**: Steel prices fell at night. The market is in a state of weak supply and demand, but the overall commodity atmosphere is positive [27]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: Protein - meal prices are under pressure due to high inventory and expected South American soybean harvest, but Chinese purchases provide some support [28][29]. - **Oils and Fats**: Oil prices were weak. Palm - oil prices are affected by production concerns, while soybean - oil prices are influenced by potential soybean reserves and palm - oil prices [30]. - **Sugar**: Sugar prices are expected to be volatile. International prices are weak, while domestic prices are supported by production costs [31]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices are likely to be strong, supported by reduced planting area expectations and fast sales progress [32]. Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The price of container shipping to Europe continued to decline, and the price inflection point at the beginning of the year may be confirmed [33][34].

Group 1 - The latest price of February gold futures is $4481.00 per ounce, down $6.90 from the previous close, reflecting a decline of 0.16% [1] - The trading range for the day is between $4485 and $4493.7 per ounce, with an opening price of $4489.30, which is higher than the previous close of $4487.90 [1] Group 2 - The U.S. non-farm payroll report for December 2025 is expected to show an increase of approximately 60,000 jobs, with an average hourly wage growth of 0.3% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 3.6%, while the unemployment rate is projected to slightly decrease to 4.5% [3] - Market expectations indicate that the Federal Reserve is likely to pause interest rate cuts this month unless there is a negative job growth or the unemployment rate rises above 4.7% [3] - The report's release may be overshadowed by a Supreme Court ruling on Trump's "emergency" tariffs, potentially limiting immediate market volatility [3] Group 3 - February gold futures closed at $4436.00 per ounce, significantly down from $4475.6, indicating a short-term correction phase [4] - The price has effectively broken below the upper Bollinger Band, with the RSI falling to around 50, shifting from a neutral to a balanced state [4] - Despite the significant increase in actual non-farm payroll data to 1.369 million, which exceeded the expected 690,000, gold prices did not experience dramatic fluctuations as the market had already priced in the positive news [4] - Major institutions like Goldman Sachs, UBS, and JPMorgan maintain a target price for 2026 between $4900 and $5055, driven by ongoing central bank gold purchases and expectations of Fed rate cuts [4]

黄金技术面分析：昨天发文说黄金大概率会下跌，随后黄金如期跌至4407美元一线。那么今天黄金短线 是什么方向呢？ 昨日早间开盘后一路缓慢下跌，截止到美盘最低触及到了4407一线位置后继续反转，于早间最高触及到 了4484附近，日线报收一根带较长下影线的小阳线，非农数据临近，市场整体情绪还是偏谨慎，多空都 比较受制，日内的话整体走势依旧看反复，不看好能有太大的张力，下方关注4430/25附近强支撑，上 方关注4485/90一带压力区，白盘寻找一些高抛低吸的机会，晚间等待非农落地后根据市场表现我们顺 势跟进即可。 前言： 你若有缘看到金晟富的文章，相信你也肯定是看了无数篇的文章，寻找了无数个老师，却依旧做不好一 单的交易，我相信大家进来这个市场，追求的是长期稳健的收益，可现实往往让大家迷失了本心，偏离 了初衷。现在，是做出改变的时候了，找到属于自己的机会，晟富要做的就是用自己多年以来丰富的经 验和专业能力助你洞悉行情的涨跌，透过涨跌看透行情的本质。 近期有哪些消息面影响黄金原油走势？后市黄金多空该如何研判？ 周五（1月9日）亚市早盘，现货黄金高位震荡，目前交投于4476.51美元/盎司。周四现货黄金在经历早 盘下探 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The short - term volatility of precious metals has intensified. Investors should adjust their positions and control risks [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Quotes - COMEX gold futures rose 0.57% to $4487.90 per ounce, COMEX silver futures fell 1.19% to $76.69 per ounce. Shanghai gold rose 0.21% to 1001.82 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver fell 2.82% to 18368.0 yuan per kilogram [1] - On January 8, the U.S. dollar index rose 0.12% to 98.86. COMEX gold recovered after hitting the bottom and closed slightly higher, while COMEX silver declined slightly after a sharp drop [2] Important Information - As of January 8, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF - SPDR Gold Trust remained unchanged from the previous trading day at 1067.13 tons. The holdings of the world's largest silver ETF - iShares Silver Trust increased by 115.6 tons to 16215.43 tons [1] - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January is 13.8%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 86.2%. By March, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 38.0%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 57.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 4.6% [1] - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. last week was 208,000, slightly lower than the forecast of 210,000. The number of continued claims for unemployment benefits increased by 56,000 to 1.914 million, indicating an increase in the difficulty for the unemployed to find new jobs and the accumulation of long - term unemployment risks [1] - The U.S. Supreme Court has set this Friday as the day to issue an opinion on the legality of Trump's comprehensive tariff plan. Analysts expect that if the court rules the tariff illegal, the stock market may be boosted, while the U.S. bond market may face selling pressure [1] Market Logic - The U.S. ADP employment in December increased by 41,000, slightly lower than the forecast. The number of job openings in November decreased from 7.45 million to 7.146 million. The U.S. ISM services PMI in December rose to 54.4, the highest since October 2024 [1] - The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in January next year remains below 20%. CME Group raised the performance margins for gold and silver futures on December 31. The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted the trading margin ratio and daily price limit for silver futures on January 7 [2] - Starting from January 8, the annual weight reset of the Bloomberg Commodity Index will lead to the sale of over $6 billion in gold futures and over $5 billion in silver futures within a five - day roll - over window [2] - Geopolitical risks increased due to the U.S. attack on Venezuela on January 3 [2] Trading Strategy - Adjust positions and control risks due to intensified short - term volatility of precious metals [2]

Stock Market - The A-share market experienced fluctuations, with Wind All A rising by 0.08% and a trading volume of 2.83 trillion yuan, while the CSI 300 index fell by 0.82% and the SSE 50 index decreased by 0.73% [1] - The defense and military industry led the gains, while non-ferrous metals and non-bank financials saw corrections [1] - There was a significant net subscription of 110 billion yuan in broad-based ETFs in December, with nearly 102 billion yuan allocated to the A500 ETF, indicating strong market sentiment [1] - The A500 index has a high correlation with the CSI 300 index, with a correlation coefficient exceeding 0.98, suggesting that the A500 index has a slightly higher growth focus [1] - The short-term outlook for stock indices is expected to remain within the consolidation range established since October, with the CSI 1000's revenue growth supporting its current valuation [1] Bond Market - The 30-year bond futures closed up by 0.37%, while the 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year contracts rose by 0.15%, 0.09%, and 0.02% respectively [2] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 99 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a bid rate of 1.4%, maintaining the same rate as the previous operation [2] - The bond market is supported by a reasonable liquidity environment, but economic stability, rising inflation, and cautious interest rate cuts pose constraints [2] - The bond market is expected to remain in a range-bound pattern in the short term, with upward rate breakthroughs requiring significant inflation increases [2] Precious Metals - London spot precious metals initially declined but later rebounded, with the gold-silver ratio rising to around 58.1 and the platinum-palladium spread narrowing to approximately 473 USD/oz [3] - The U.S. initial jobless claims rose to 208,000, slightly above the previous value but still below market expectations, indicating a stable labor market [3] - The Federal Reserve's report shows consumer inflation expectations for the next year at 3.4%, higher than the previous month's 3.2%, reflecting ongoing concerns about inflation [3] - Geopolitical factors, including U.S. Treasury Secretary's announcement on lifting sanctions against Venezuela and Trump's proposed military budget increase, have influenced market sentiment towards gold [3] - The probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in January remains low, with increasing market divergence suggesting a cautious approach, particularly for silver, platinum, and palladium [3]

Copper - Copper prices experienced fluctuations and a decline, with domestic refined copper imports remaining unprofitable [3][12] - LME copper inventory decreased by 2,150 tons to 141,075 tons, while Comex inventory increased by 2,255 tons to 467,165 tons [3][12] - Demand for copper is slowing due to high prices, leading to a rigid procurement demand in the market [3][12] Nickel & Stainless Steel - LME nickel fell by 3.34% to $17,065 per ton, while SHFE nickel dropped by 4.48% to 136,510 yuan per ton [4][14] - LME nickel inventory increased by 666 tons to 276,300 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts rose by 554 tons to 39,330 tons [4][14] - Indonesia plans to adjust nickel quotas based on industry demand to support local prices, but specific quota levels for 2026 remain undisclosed [4][14] Aluminum & Aluminum Alloys - Alumina prices showed a weak trend, with AO2605 settling at 2,797 yuan per ton, down 2.95% [6][15] - SHFE aluminum prices also declined, with AL2602 closing at 23,710 yuan per ton, a drop of 1.17% [6][15] - The market is facing inventory pressure due to increased shipments and reduced outflows from major sales areas [6][15] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon prices weakened, with the main contract settling at 8,535 yuan per ton, down 4.53% [7][16] - Polysilicon contracts hit the limit down, with the main contract at 53,610 yuan per ton, a 9% drop [7][16] - The market is experiencing significant volatility, and a cautious approach is recommended due to concerns over production capacity and demand [7][16] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures rose by 2.46% to 145,000 yuan per ton, with battery-grade lithium carbonate prices increasing by 5,000 yuan to 138,500 yuan per ton [8][17] - Weekly production of lithium increased by 115 tons to 22,535 tons, with various sources contributing to the supply [8][17] - Concerns over actual supply and pricing mechanisms in the lithium market are prevalent, with expectations of continued demand despite potential price declines [8][17]

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices showed a recovery after hitting a low, indicating potential for further strength despite short-term fluctuations [1][3][5]. Price Movement - Gold opened at $4459.68 per ounce, fluctuated to a low of $4407.55, and closed at $4477.11, with a daily range of $71.65 and a gain of $17.43, or 0.39% [1]. - The market experienced pressure from increased margin requirements for precious metals futures and better-than-expected initial data, but support buying helped gold recover [3]. Market Outlook - The outlook remains bullish with a target of $5000 or higher, despite potential short-term pressures from upcoming employment data and the Bloomberg Commodity Index rebalancing [5][6]. - Geopolitical risks and expectations of multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve continue to support a bullish sentiment [6]. Technical Analysis - Monthly and weekly charts indicate a strong upward trend, with potential for over 30% gains if the price maintains above key support levels [8][9]. - Key support levels for gold are identified at $4445 and $4420, while resistance levels are at $4500 and $4525 [10]. Conclusion - The overall sentiment in the gold market remains positive, with expectations of further price increases driven by geopolitical factors and monetary policy [6][8].

Group 1 - Domestic gold price (99.95%) is quoted at 1001.82 CNY per gram, up 0.21% [1] - International gold price is reported at 4479.7 USD per ounce, up 0.43% [2] Group 2 - U.S. weak employment data strengthens market expectations for at least two rate cuts in 2026, benefiting gold as a non-yielding asset; the upcoming non-farm payroll report on January 9 is a key event [3] - Global geopolitical uncertainties are rising, with U.S. military actions in Venezuela and threats against Colombia driving safe-haven investments into gold; central banks, including the People's Bank of China, continue to increase gold reserves, with a 30,000-ounce increase to 74.15 million ounces by the end of December 2025 [4] Group 3 - Institutions are generally bullish on gold prices in the long term, with HSBC predicting prices could reach 5000 USD per ounce in the first half of the year, while Morgan Stanley expects a rise to 4800 USD per ounce in Q4; however, short-term pressures from Bloomberg commodity index adjustments may lead to passive selling [5]

Group 1 - The article highlights that gold has become the largest reserve asset globally, surpassing the value of U.S. Treasury securities held overseas, with a value of $3.93 trillion compared to $3.88 trillion for U.S. debt [1] - The macroeconomic environment is supportive of precious metals, with easing inflation pressures and expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, which are expected to sustain the long-term upward trend of gold prices [2][19] - The supply of silver remains tight, with industrial demand, particularly from the photovoltaic sector, driving investment interest, while platinum demand is also expected to rise due to its use in hybrid vehicles and hydrogen energy [2][19] Group 2 - Lithium carbonate contracts continue to reach new highs, with strong terminal demand and a weekly production increase of 259 tons to 22,420 tons, despite anticipated declines in the production of ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate in January 2026 [3][23] - The social inventory of lithium carbonate has decreased by 168 tons to 109,605 tons, indicating a potential for upward price movement despite short-term price fluctuations [3][24] - The rubber market is experiencing price stability due to supply constraints and steady tire production, with expectations of a strong performance in rubber prices [4][16] Group 3 - The restructuring of China National Petroleum Corporation and China Aviation Oil Group is approved by the State Council, indicating a trend towards strategic and professional consolidation among state-owned enterprises [8] - The U.S. government is intervening in the financial market by purchasing $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities to lower mortgage rates, which is seen as a form of quantitative easing [6]