行业 集运指数日报 日期 2025 年 6 月 10 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | 表1：集运欧线期货6月9日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算 价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | EC2506 | 1,954.6 | 1,920.0 | 1,948.6 | 1,941.0 | -6.0 | -0.3 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In May 2025, the China-US tariff war eased, but there are still significant uncertainties. Trump's tariff policy is influenced by the "Great and Beautiful" Act. If it passes the Senate, the tariff policy may ease; otherwise, it may intensify [1][33]. - The suspension of the tariff war promoted panic exports, leading to a month-on-month increase in the manufacturing PMI in May. The improvement in demand was mainly supported by external demand, but enterprises were worried about future demand, as indicated by the continuous decline in the finished - product inventory index [1][34]. - Despite the easing of the tariff war, its negative impact has formed, squeezing enterprises' willingness to produce and invest. Enterprises prefer to maintain the original re - export trade rather than direct exports due to the expiration of the tariff suspension period in early July [2][34]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Tariff War Risk Temporarily Eased, but Uncertainty Remains 3.1.1 Tariff War News Since May - In the China - US high - level economic and trade talks from May 10 - 11, significant progress was made, including a substantial reduction in bilateral tariffs and the establishment of a bilateral consultation mechanism. However, there is a risk of tariff war escalation after the 90 - day suspension period ends on July 9 [7][8]. - There were legal disputes over Trump's tariff policy in May. On May 28, a federal court blocked Trump's tariff policy, but on May 29, the federal appeals court temporarily suspended the lower - court's ruling. On June 3, Trump increased steel and aluminum tariffs from 25% to 50% [8]. - There are internal differences in the US on tariff policy, but Trump adheres to a tough stance, making the future of the tariff war uncertain [9]. 3.1.2 Assessment of Trump's Future Tariff Policy - Trump's tariff policy is stubborn. His purposes include creating political legacies and expanding family assets, as well as generating fiscal revenue for tax cuts. The "Great and Beautiful" Act's passage in the Senate will affect the intensity of his tariff policy [10][11]. 3.2 Tariff War Suspension Promoted Panic Exports, and the Manufacturing PMI Rose Month - on - Month in May - In May, the manufacturing PMI rebounded by 0.5 points to 49.5 but remained in the contraction range. The panic - export effect drove the recovery of most sub - indicators except price - related and finished - product inventory indicators [12]. - In terms of production, the PMI production index rose by 0.9 points to 50.7, higher than the rebound of the demand index and the seasonal average. Enterprises accelerated production during the 90 - day buffer period to ship goods [12][13]. - In terms of demand, the new order index rose by 0.6 points, and the new export order index rose by 2.8 points, indicating that external demand supported the improvement. However, the finished - product inventory index continued to decline by 0.8 points, reflecting enterprises' concerns about future demand [13]. 3.3 Enterprises Remain Cautious about Direct Trade with the US and Prefer Re - export Trade - In May, the weekly average throughput of monitored ports increased slightly month - on - month, and the import container data of the Port of Los Angeles showed a recovery but did not reach previous highs. Enterprises prefer re - export trade due to the cumulative effect of tariffs and the short suspension period [18]. - Different industries are affected differently by tariff policies. Strategic emerging industries are less affected, while traditional labor - intensive foreign - trade enterprises are more cautious. Forward - looking indicators show that the actual production and operation recovery of enterprises is slower than expected [24]. - In April, more than half of the 13 export - dependent industries saw profit improvements, but there was a deviation between price - volume changes and profit recovery. Profit improvement driven by cost reduction is not sustainable, so enterprises choose to reduce inventory [29]. 3.4 Summary - The China - US tariff war eased in May, but Trump's tariff policy remains uncertain, depending on the "Great and Beautiful" Act's passage in the Senate [1][33]. - The suspension of the tariff war promoted panic exports and a month - on - month increase in the manufacturing PMI in May. External demand supported the improvement in demand, but enterprises were worried about future demand [1][34]. - The negative impact of the tariff war has formed, squeezing enterprises' willingness to produce and invest. Enterprises prefer re - export trade due to the expiration of the tariff suspension period in early July [2][34].

Export Performance - In May 2025, China's export value increased by 4.8% year-on-year, a decrease of 3.3 percentage points compared to April[1] - Exports to the U.S. fell by 34.5% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 13.5 percentage points from the previous month, significantly dragging down overall export growth[1][3] - The high base effect from the previous year, where exports grew by 7.4% in May 2024, also contributed to the slowdown in May 2025[4] Import Trends - In May 2025, China's import value decreased by 3.4% year-on-year, with the decline widening by 3.2 percentage points from April[6] - Imports from the U.S. saw a year-on-year decline of 18.1%, with the drop expanding by 4.3 percentage points compared to the previous month, directly impacting overall import growth by 1.1 percentage points[6] - The decline in import demand was also influenced by the overall slowdown in exports and the negative impact of the trade war on domestic investment and consumer confidence[5][6] Market Dynamics - The "export rush" effect towards the U.S. is expected to continue in June, potentially maintaining positive year-on-year growth in exports, although the growth rate may drop to around 1.0%[5] - The ongoing high tariff levels from the U.S. and the established trend of external demand slowing down suggest that export growth may face downward pressure in the second half of the year[5] - The diversification of export markets has shown progress, with exports to ASEAN growing by 14.8% and to the EU by 12.0% in May, indicating resilience amid external challenges[4]

Core Viewpoint - China's total goods trade value reached 17.94 trillion yuan in the first five months of the year, showing a year-on-year growth of 2.5%, with exports increasing by 7.2% and imports decreasing by 3.8% [1][4]. Trade Performance - The trade growth rate in the first five months was 0.1 percentage points higher than in the first four months [2]. - In May alone, the total goods trade value was 3.81 trillion yuan, reflecting a growth of 2.7%, with exports up by 6.3% and imports down by 2.1% [5]. - The export growth rate in May decreased by 3 percentage points compared to April [5]. Trade Partners - ASEAN remained China's largest trading partner, with a trade value of 3.02 trillion yuan, growing by 9.1%, accounting for 16.8% of total foreign trade [6]. - The EU was the second-largest trading partner, with a trade value of 2.3 trillion yuan, increasing by 2.9%, making up 12.8% of total foreign trade [6]. - Trade with the US, however, saw a decline, with a total trade value of 1.72 trillion yuan, down by 8.1%, and exports to the US decreasing by 8.7% [6]. Market Outlook - The foreign trade market is expected to face significant uncertainties moving forward, particularly after the 90-day window for US-China negotiations [8][9]. - Despite the pause in the trade war, foreign trade enterprises continue to seek opportunities in overseas markets, particularly in "Belt and Road" countries and Europe [11]. - There are expectations for continued positive growth in exports for June, although challenges remain due to high US tariffs and a slowing external demand [10][11]. Policy Implications - The government is likely to maintain supportive policies for stabilizing growth and foreign trade, with potential increases in fiscal measures to promote consumption and investment [12].

Core Viewpoint - The recent ruling by the U.S. International Trade Court has declared several tariffs imposed by the Trump administration as illegal, marking a significant setback for the administration's trade policies [1][3]. Group 1: Impact on Domestic Economy - The tariffs, including a 10% global benchmark tariff and a 20% tariff on Chinese goods, have led to increased prices for imported goods, significantly raising living costs for American consumers [3][5]. - Reports indicate that prices for specific imported items, such as bananas from Costa Rica, have risen nearly 10%, and the cost of car seats imported from China is expected to increase from $350 to $450 [3][5]. - Many U.S. businesses, particularly small enterprises reliant on imported materials, are facing rising production costs and declining profits due to these tariffs [3][5]. Group 2: International Trade Relations - The tariffs have prompted retaliatory measures from countries such as China, the EU, and Canada, escalating global trade tensions and harming the international image of the U.S. [5][6]. - U.S. export sectors, including agriculture and automotive industries, are experiencing significant declines in orders, leading to production cuts and layoffs [5][6]. - The ruling against Trump's tariffs has undermined his strategy of pressuring allies to impose tariffs on Chinese products, further isolating the U.S. in international trade discussions [5][6]. Group 3: Future of U.S.-China Relations - The ruling presents an opportunity for dialogue between the U.S. and China, as both nations recognize the mutual losses incurred from the ongoing trade war [8]. - Recent communications between U.S. and Chinese officials indicate a willingness to maintain dialogue, although significant challenges remain in improving bilateral relations [8]. - The outcome of the trade conflict will have profound implications not only for U.S.-China relations but also for the global economy and international order [8].

Group 1 - The U.S. is facing significant challenges in securing rare earth materials, which are critical for military applications, particularly the F-35 fighter jet that requires 417 kg of rare earths per unit [3] - China's dominance in rare earth refining technology is causing U.S. defense contractors to struggle with quality and cost, leading to a 42% increase in production costs due to the need for three times the raw materials to produce acceptable quality [3] - The trade war initiated by the U.S. has resulted in a significant drop in China's technology exports to the U.S. by 31%, while ASEAN countries have seen a 143% increase in orders for 28nm chips from China [4] Group 2 - Negotiations in London have stalled, with the U.S. proposing a "rare earth for chips" deal, but China is demanding Boeing orders and Texas semiconductor factories in exchange [6] - Chinese companies are exploring the establishment of rare earth refining facilities in the Middle East, indicating a potential shift in the global supply chain [6] - The current geopolitical landscape mirrors historical events, with China leveraging rare earths to influence global industry, contrasting with the U.S. focus on isolationist policies [6]

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Group 1 - The core issue of Trump's tax reform is the potential for uncontrolled fiscal deficits, with the tax bill expected to reduce revenue by $3.7 trillion over the next decade and increase the federal deficit by $3 trillion [4][5] - The Senate is facing challenges in passing the tax reform bill, with some conservative Republican senators expressing opposition, which may lead to a difficult negotiation process [4][5] - The tax reform is part of Trump's broader agenda, which includes tax cuts, increased tariffs, and deregulation, with tax reform being the top priority [4][5] Group 2 - The U.S. job market is showing signs of moderation, with May non-farm payrolls adding 139,000 jobs, down from 147,000 in the previous month, indicating a slowing growth trend [1][2] - The Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates remains cautious, with internal disagreements on whether current inflation is transitory or structural, suggesting that rate cuts may not be imminent [2][3] - The ongoing trade negotiations between the U.S. and China are critical, with the Trump administration needing to make progress before tariff exemptions expire [6]

【环球时报驻美国特约记者 萧达 环球时报记者 陈子帅 王逸】中国外交部发言人7日宣布，应英国政府 邀请，中共中央政治局委员、国务院副总理何立峰将于6月8日至13日访问英国。其间，将与美方举行中 美经贸磋商机制首次会议。美国总统特朗普当地时间6日也在社交媒体上发文称，美国财政部长贝森 特、商务部长卢特尼克和贸易代表格里尔将于9日与中方代表在伦敦举行会谈。这是美中关税战爆发以 来，双方举行的第二场经贸磋商。中美5月12日在日内瓦会谈达成共识后，中方严肃认真执行了协议， 美方却针对中国芯片产品等实施进一步限制的消极措施。多名中国专家8日接受《环球时报》记者采访 时表示，此次磋商是中美两国元首日前通话直接推动的，表明双方均希望通过持续对话和深入磋商，找 到化解彼此关系中障碍的有效途径。对于美方大肆炒作中方稀土出口管制，却绝口不提美方对华极端打 压措施，这些专家强调，中美经贸谈判必须秉持平等态度，尊重各自关切，只有这样，才能争取双赢结 果。 " 全球市场高度关注 " 据新加坡《联合早报》8日报道，中美领导人6月5日通话不到两天，美国总统特朗普当地时间6日在社交 平台上率先宣布，美方经贸官员将于星期一（6月9日）在伦敦与 ...

Core Viewpoint - The discovery of high-purity quartz ore in China marks a significant breakthrough, potentially altering the landscape of key material supply and reducing dependency on foreign sources, particularly the United States [1][12]. Group 1: Importance of High-Purity Quartz - High-purity quartz is essential for high-tech applications, including semiconductor chips and solar panels, due to its high temperature resistance, corrosion resistance, and excellent insulation properties [3][10]. - Prior to this discovery, China relied heavily on imports of high-purity quartz sand, spending approximately 13.16 billion on imports last year, which created a significant financial burden and dependency on foreign suppliers [6][18]. Group 2: Strategic Implications - The discovery allows China to produce high-purity quartz with a purity of over 99.995%, comparable to the best global sources, thus enhancing domestic production capabilities and reducing reliance on imports [8][10]. - This new resource is expected to improve the yield rates for chip manufacturers by at least 8% and reduce costs in the solar industry by 15%, providing a strategic advantage in technology development [10][20]. Group 3: Impact on US-China Relations - The timing of this discovery is crucial amid escalating trade tensions and technology restrictions from the US, as it undermines the US's leverage over China in critical technology sectors [12][15]. - By securing its own supply of high-purity quartz, China effectively counters US tariffs and resource control strategies, shifting the balance of power in its favor [16][18]. Group 4: Future Prospects - The discovery is seen as a pivotal moment for China's technological independence, enabling the country to enhance its manufacturing capabilities and innovation potential [20][21]. - This development not only alleviates immediate resource constraints but also positions China favorably in the ongoing global technology competition [20].