10月9日晚间，受避险需求飙升与伦敦现货市场供应趋紧的双重推动，现货白银价格跃升至数十年来新 高。 【导读】白银首次突破50美元 最近每天都在见证历史。刚刚，白银的价格也创下历史纪录了。 白银既是全球投资资产，也广泛用于工业领域——包括太阳能电池板和风力涡轮机，这两项用途合计占 据了超过一半的白银消费。预计2025年白银将连续第五年供不应求。 伦敦白银市场的紧张程度接近空前，金属借贷成本高企。今年，出于美国可能对白银加征关税的担忧， 市场出现"抢运"至美国的现象，伦敦库存被抽走，可供出借的现货减少。 周四，纽约白银期货价格明显低于伦敦基准价——这与通常纽约溢价为正的格局相反，颇为罕见。 现货白银日内突破每盎司50美元，创20世纪80年代"亨特兄弟逼仓"以来最高水平。之后呈加速上涨之 势，突破50美元整数大关后继续上攻51美元/盎司关口，涨幅扩大至4.5%，报51.06美元/盎司，继续创新 高。 今年以来白银涨幅已超过70%，表现胜过创下历史新高的黄金。市场对美国财政风险、股市过热以及美 联储独立性遭受威胁的担忧，推动投资者加速寻求避险资产。 与此同时，伦敦关键市场可自由调配的白银短缺支撑了价格，也使借入白银的 ...

来源：中国基金报 中国基金报记者 泰勒 最近每天都在见证历史。刚刚，白银的价格也创下历史纪录了。 10月9日晚间，受避险需求飙升与伦敦现货市场供应趋紧的双重推动，现货白银价格跃升至数十年来新 高。 【导读】白银首次突破50美元 现货白银日内突破每盎司50美元，创20世纪80年代"亨特兄弟逼仓"以来最高水平。之后呈加速上涨之 势，突破50美元整数大关后继续上攻51美元/盎司关口，涨幅扩大至4.5%，报51.06美元/盎司，继续创新 高。 今年以来白银涨幅已超过70%，表现胜过创下历史新高的黄金。市场对美国财政风险、股市过热以及美 联储独立性遭受威胁的担忧，推动投资者加速寻求避险资产。 与此同时，伦敦关键市场可自由调配的白银短缺支撑了价格，也使借入白银的成本急剧攀升。 在纽约商品交易所（Comex），白银期货价格仍低于1980年1月创下的每盎司50.35美元的历史纪录。 白银既是全球投资资产，也广泛用于工业领域——包括太阳能电池板和风力涡轮机，这两项用途合计占 据了超过一半的白银消费。预计2025年白银将连续第五年供不应求。 伦敦白银市场的紧张程度接近空前，金属借贷成本高企。今年，出于美国可能对白银加征关税的担忧 ...

【导读】 白银首次突破50美元 中国基金报记者 泰勒 今年以来白银涨幅已超过70%，表现胜过创下历史新高的黄金。市场对美国财政风险、股市 过热以及美联储独立性遭受威胁的担忧，推动投资者加速寻求避险资产。 与此同时，伦敦关键市场可自由调配的白银短缺支撑了价格，也使借入白银的成本急剧攀 升。 在纽约商品交易所（Comex），白银期货价格仍低于1980年1月创下的每盎司50.35美元的 历史纪录。 所谓"对冲法币贬值交易"同样推升了白银：在通胀与不可持续财政赤字可能侵蚀金融资产价 值的担忧下，投资者涌向比特币、黄金与白银，推动这些资产达到新的里程碑。 白银既是全球投资资产，也广泛用于工业领域——包括太阳能电池板和风力涡轮机，这两项 用途合计占据了超过一半的白银消费。预计2025年白银将连续第五年供不应求。 最近每天都在见证历史。刚刚，白银的价格也创下历史纪录了。 10月9日晚间，受避险需求飙升与伦敦现货市场供应趋紧的双重推动，现货白银价格跃升至数 十年来新高。 现货白银日内突破 每盎司50美元， 创20世纪80年代"亨特兄弟逼仓"以来最高水平。 之 后呈加速上 涨之势， 突破50美元整数大关后继续上攻51美元/盎司 ...

现货白银价格历史首次突破每盎司50美元关口，因避险需求激增加剧了伦敦贵金属市场的供应紧张。 周四（10月9日）纽市盘初，现货白银价格涨4.4%报每盎司51.08元，升破了上世纪70年代"亨特兄弟逼空白银操纵案"时 的历史纪录。 年初至今，银价累涨近74%，跑赢了累涨54%的现货黄金。 20世纪70年代，布雷顿森林体系垮台后，美国著名石油家族邦克·亨特和赫伯特·亨特两兄弟不仅在美国期货市场上疯狂买 白银期货，还向中东王室借钱大举购入白银现货。 分析认为，这波行情反映出在美国财政风险、股市过热、美联储独立性受威胁等因素下，投资者对避险资产的强烈追 捧。 | SIVE START THE REQUEST COURSE IT SINCE 3 HISTO J WOS SELVIT ON THE DIGITIES CHRISTON OF STIRE TIGHTSCH | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Silver prices per troy ounce | Early 1970s | ...

Core Viewpoint - The surge in gold prices, breaking the $4000 per ounce mark for the first time in history, is attributed to a lack of confidence in the US dollar and increasing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset amid economic uncertainties [2][9][21]. Price Movement - On October 6, gold prices began to rise, breaking through key levels, with London spot gold reaching over $3900 and then $3950 per ounce, marking a daily increase of over $70, or 1.8% [6][11]. - On October 7, gold prices officially surpassed $4000 per ounce during Asian trading hours, with the New York Commodity Exchange reporting a peak of $4014.6 per ounce [7][9]. - By October 8, various gold brands in China saw significant price increases, with some reaching 1176 yuan per gram, reflecting a strong demand in retail [9][11]. Economic Context - The recent government shutdown in the US has led to significant economic disruptions, with 750,000 federal employees losing pay and a daily economic loss of $400 million, contributing to the perception of instability in the dollar [11][13]. - Historical patterns show that gold prices tend to rise during US government shutdowns, as seen in previous instances in 2013 and 2018 [13]. Central Bank Activity - Central banks globally are increasing their gold reserves, with a reported net addition of 15 tons in August alone. China's central bank has been particularly aggressive, increasing its reserves to 7406 million ounces by the end of September [17][19]. - This trend reflects a shift from holding US dollars to gold, as countries seek to secure their wealth against potential dollar depreciation [19]. Investment Strategies - For individuals looking to purchase gold, it is advised to prioritize lower-cost options and wait for potential price corrections before buying [27][31]. - Investors should avoid speculative practices and consider gold as a means of wealth preservation rather than a quick profit opportunity [31][35]. - Those who have previously invested in gold and have seen significant gains are encouraged to consider selling a portion to secure profits while maintaining some exposure [35][37].

Core Viewpoint - Silver is currently undervalued, with expectations for a continued rally driven by strong industrial demand, supply constraints, and safe-haven buying amid economic uncertainty [1][3][21]. Market Data - COMEX silver futures are trading at approximately $49.74 per ounce, with a daily high near $49.96 and a low of about $47.85. Silver spot prices are close to $49.67 per ounce [2][23]. - In India, silver futures on the MCX market are trading around Rs 1,46,850 per kilogram, closely tracking global price movements [2][23]. Demand Drivers - Industrial demand is a significant factor, with silver being essential for solar panels, electric vehicles, and semiconductors [11][12][21]. - The demand from solar energy has increased as countries invest in clean energy, while the rise of electric vehicles has heightened the need for silver in batteries and electronics [12][21]. - The technology and semiconductor sectors are also contributing to growth, as silver's properties make it vital for modern electronics [12][13]. Supply Constraints - Global mining output is struggling to meet annual demand, leading to a structural supply deficit where consumption exceeds production [14][15]. - Low warehouse inventories and high deliveries to major exchanges are tightening supply, putting upward pressure on prices [15][21]. Investor Sentiment - Investor interest in silver has surged due to economic uncertainty and currency concerns, with many treating it as a safe-haven asset similar to gold [17][18]. - The tightening silver-to-gold ratio reflects silver's stronger performance relative to gold, enhancing investor enthusiasm [18][21]. Investment Options - Silver ETFs are popular for gaining exposure, with options like iShares Silver Trust (SLV), abrdn Physical Silver Shares ETF (SIVR), and Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL) [6][19][20]. - These ETFs provide flexibility for different risk levels, allowing investors to participate in silver's price movements without holding the physical metal [19][20]. Future Outlook - Analysts believe the current rally is supported by industrial demand, investor interest, and supply shortages, with potential for silver prices to reach $100 or more per ounce [3][21][24]. - Small fluctuations in supply or demand could significantly impact prices, indicating a critical moment for investors [21][24].

Group 1: Market Response - Israeli stocks and major global defense manufacturers have seen significant increases since the October 7, 2023 attacks, with defense stocks rising over 120% [2] - The MSCI Israel stocks index has increased by more than 80%, outperforming main global stock benchmarks by approximately 30 percentage points [3] Group 2: Credit Ratings - Israel experienced its first-ever credit rating downgrades in 2024, initiated by Moody's, followed by S&P and Fitch [4] - Concerns about Israel's credit status peaked during the conflict, with credit default swap markets indicating a potential downgrade to 'junk' status, although these fears have since diminished [5] Group 3: Economic Impact - The war has severely impacted Israel's economy, which is valued at $580 billion, with initial costs estimated at around 14 billion shekels ($3.75 billion) [6] - Economic growth nearly halted last year, but is projected to be 2.5% this year, with potential for over 5% growth next year if a "peace dividend" occurs [6] Group 4: Commodity Prices - Oil prices surged above $90 per barrel following the Hamas attacks, but quickly fell back to $75 by the end of 2023 [7] - Tensions with Iran caused another spike in oil prices in early 2024, which also subsided after initial escalations [8] Group 5: Safe-Haven Assets - Gold prices increased nearly 3% after the Hamas attacks, marking the largest weekly rise in six months, and have continued to rise since then [9]

Core Points - The announcement of a phased peace plan between Israel and Hamas, as stated by former President Trump, indicates a potential resolution to the ongoing conflict, with the release of hostages and military withdrawals expected soon [1][2] - The agreement, finalized in Egypt, is based on a 20-point peace plan introduced by Trump, although significant issues such as disarmament of Hamas remain unresolved [2] Group 1 - The peace agreement includes the release of approximately 20 hostages taken during the October 2023 attacks and the return of over 20 deceased individuals, while Israel is expected to release nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners [1] - The ceasefire is set to take effect on October 9, 2023, at 12 PM Cairo time, marking a significant step towards ending the Gaza conflict [1][2] - The announcement led to a decline in gold prices, with a drop of about $30, or 0.6%, reflecting reduced investor demand for safe-haven assets due to easing tensions in the Middle East [2] Group 2 - The successful negotiation of the agreement represents a major breakthrough in two years of conflict mediation by the United States, although the implementation phase is expected to face numerous challenges [2] - Trump's potential visit to Egypt and possibly Gaza is under consideration, which could further influence the peace process [2]

Core Insights - International gold prices have surged significantly during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, with COMEX gold futures breaking through $4000 per ounce, driven by a weak dollar and geopolitical tensions [1] - Goldman Sachs attributes the recent rise in gold prices to increased purchases by three main "strong buyers": rapidly growing Western ETFs, potential acceleration of purchases by central banks, and an increase in speculative positions [1][7] - The long-term performance of gold has outpaced other major assets, with a cumulative increase of 866.87% since 1990, significantly outperforming WTI crude oil and LME copper [2][4] Market Trends - Gold prices have increased by nearly 53% this year, almost double the total increase of 27.26% seen in the previous year, with significant gains observed since the beginning of the year [3] - The price of gold has reached levels not seen since the 1970s, with the last time such a significant annual increase occurred being in 1979 during a global energy crisis [3][4] - The World Gold Council reported that global central bank gold purchases exceeded 1000 tons from 2022 to 2024, indicating a strong trend towards gold accumulation [12][13] Investment Dynamics - The rise in gold prices is attributed to several factors, including the potential for U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts, geopolitical instability, and a shift in capital towards safe-haven assets [7][8] - Investment institutions are increasingly allocating 10% to 20% of their portfolios to gold, reflecting a shift in strategy due to rising geopolitical risks and economic uncertainties [6][11] - Historical data shows that gold has consistently outperformed other commodities, particularly during periods of economic turmoil, reinforcing its status as a safe-haven asset [5][9] Future Outlook - The probability of gold continuing to outperform the S&P 500 index remains high, driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties [14] - The World Gold Council's report indicates a 3% year-on-year increase in global gold demand, with a significant 45% rise in value, highlighting strong investor interest in gold amid market volatility [14] - Analysts suggest that while there may be short-term corrections, the long-term outlook for gold prices remains positive, supported by fundamental factors such as currency depreciation and economic instability [14]

（原标题：新高复新高，黄金"牛市逻辑"未完待续｜全球商品观察） 南方财经 21世纪经济报道记者吴斌 报道 黄金狂飙之势仍在继续。10月8日，现货黄金突破4000美元/盎司大关，刷新记录。过去两个月，金价涨 幅超过20%，今年年初以来已上涨超过50%，创下1979年以来最大年度涨幅。10月9日，现货黄金仍在 4000美元关口上方。 随着金价持续创下历史新高，华尔街也不断上调其目标价，高盛将2026年12月金价预估上调至4900美 元/盎司，先前预估为4300美元。 与此同时，随着黄金价格来到每盎司4000美元，警告声也不绝于耳。美国银行提醒，贵金属已经兑现了 大部分的上涨预期，目前看起来略微超买。 从资金流量来看，彭博统计实物黄金支持的ETF在9月增加了100多吨，为三年多来最大增幅，反映了在 央行增持黄金逻辑之外，市场对黄金的投机性需求也在显著增长。 源达信息证券研究所所长吴起涤对21世纪经济报道记者表示，地缘政治风险增加，黄金的避险属性凸 显。俄乌冲突和巴以冲突等地缘事件，使得全球不稳定性因素加剧，多国政府和个人投资者都在增加对 黄金等避险资产的配置。美联储降息周期助推金价，降息会降低持有黄金的机会成本。 ...