美国总统唐特朗普周五表示，他可能会对那些"不配合格陵兰事务"的国家征收新的关税。 "出于国家安全考虑，我们需要格陵兰。所以我可能会这么做，"特朗普在白宫一场与医疗保健相关的活 动上说道。 这番言论表明，近几个月来特朗普试图让美国获得格陵兰岛的举动日益激进，如今他再次动用自己最钟 爱的外交施压工具之一——关税，以向外国施加影响力。 对于媒体就特朗普上述言论寻求进一步说明的请求，白宫未立即作出回应。 此前，特朗普政府曾表示正在考虑多种方案，包括动用美军，以接管这个丹麦属地。 尽管美国已在格陵兰设有军事基地，但特朗普坚称，由于中国和俄罗斯带来的国家安全威胁，美国必须 拥有格陵兰岛。 白宫还曾表示，美国正考虑提出得到这座北极岛屿的报价。然而，格陵兰和丹麦方面已多次明确表示， 该领土不出售，也无意并入美国。 就在提出可能以关税手段逼迫他国支持其格陵兰计划之前，特朗普曾描述过类似策略：通过威胁提高关 税，迫使外国提高药品价格。 特朗普一直致力于降低美国国内药价，主张强制要求美国药价与海外更低的价格水平挂钩。 在周五的白宫活动中，特朗普称，他曾威胁多个国家领导人：要么在"最惠国"协议框架下提高药品价 格，要么将面临对其所有 ...

Core Viewpoint - The independence of the Federal Reserve is crucial for effective policy and economic stability, and external pressures, particularly from political figures, pose significant risks to this independence [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Independence - The U.S. Department of Justice has initiated a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, raising concerns about the Fed's independence [1]. - Patrick Harker emphasizes that any external pressure on the Federal Reserve is dangerous and could undermine its decision-making effectiveness, impacting both the U.S. economy and the global financial system [1][3]. - Harker notes that the Federal Reserve's structure allows it to maintain a degree of political independence, which is essential for making unpopular decisions, such as raising interest rates during high inflation [3]. Group 2: Current Economic Challenges - The U.S. economy is facing multiple challenges, including persistent inflation around 3%, high housing costs, and stagnant labor markets [1][4]. - Harker warns that pursuing short-term economic stimulus through significant interest rate cuts could exacerbate structural issues rather than resolve them [2][5]. - The inflation rate remains stubbornly high, influenced by factors such as tariffs and rising housing and healthcare costs, which are expected to persist [4][7]. Group 3: Policy Outlook and Employment - Harker indicates that the labor market is showing signs of stagnation, with job growth concentrated in healthcare and government services, while manufacturing jobs are declining [8]. - The uncertainty surrounding tariff policies and housing costs will significantly influence inflation trends moving forward [9][10]. - Harker suggests that the Federal Reserve may consider one interest rate cut this year, but the decision will depend on the evolving economic landscape [11]. Group 4: Global Economic Perspective - Harker believes that the U.S. economy will perform reasonably well, supported by investments in artificial intelligence and data centers, but overall growth remains modest [13]. - The potential for global growth is seen in Asia, although risks persist due to the changing nature of U.S. policies [14]. - Harker stresses the importance of trust and cooperation among nations to avoid stagnation in global affairs, highlighting that excessive distrust could hinder progress [16].

记者丨 施诗 李依农 《全球财经连线》： 我们看到司法部已发起刑事调查，针对美联储以及美联储主席鲍 威尔。你如何看待这件事？ 面对这种政治与政策交织的复杂局面， 美联储前票委、费城联邦储备银行前行长Patrick Harker在接受南方财经记者独家专访时指出，美联储的独立性是保障政策有效性和经济稳定 的关键。 他强调，任何针对美联储的外部施压都是危险的行为，可能削弱央行独立性、影响 其决策效果，甚至在全球经济层面产生连锁影响。在他看来，保持独立性不仅关乎美联储自身 的政策执行，也对美国经济及全球金融体系的稳定至关重要。 Harker还提醒，当前美国经济面临多重挑战： 通胀长期停留在3%左右，住房成本和医疗保健 支出仍居高不下，劳动市场整体呈现停滞。在这样的环境下，盲目追求短期刺激，尤其是通过 大幅降息，不仅无法解决结构性问题，反而可能埋下更大风险。 当前阶段并不合适大幅降息 《全球财经连线》： 特朗普呼吁大幅降息，如何看待这一主张？ Patrick Harker: 在当前阶段，这并不是一项合适的政策。这样做只会进一步刺激通胀，而我 们需要的是采取相反方向的措施，即推动通胀回落、加以抑制。 挑战美联储独立性是一 ...

白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特在接受福克斯商业频道采访时表示，如果美国最高法院裁定反对 总统特朗普的全球关税政策，特朗普可立即实施10%的关税。 责任编辑：何云 白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特在接受福克斯商业频道采访时表示，如果美国最高法院裁定反对 总统特朗普的全球关税政策，特朗普可立即实施10%的关税。 责任编辑：何云 ...

工业金属价格的持续上涨正成为美国通胀前景的潜在威胁。随着油价近期反弹、关税成本传导以及经济增长保持韧性，多重因素叠加可能推动 CPI在未来数月出现上行压力，最高法院即将就关税问题作出的裁决也为短期通胀走势增添了不确定性。 据追风交易台消息，德银分析师Markus Heider在15日公布的报告中表示，金属市场正经历一轮强劲涨势。LMEX工业金属指数自去年12月以来已 上涨近20%，自9月以来累计涨幅达到30%。这一始于去年秋季的上涨行情在最近几周明显提速。 通胀风险正在累积。本周公布的11月生产者价格指数（PPI）报告已显示核心消费品通胀出现加速迹象。与此同时，此前一直作为重要抵消因素的 能源价格近期止跌回升，过去一周油价出现反弹，削弱了成本端的缓冲空间。 对于美国市场而言，这一风险尤为突出。近几个月来关税政策已为成本端增添压力。如果油价维持在当前水平且经济增长保持强劲，金属价格上 涨将更明显地构成美国CPI的上行风险。 金属价格与通胀市场估值之间存在显著的正相关关系，这种关联建立在两个基础之上。首先，基础金属是生产成本的重要驱动因素，价格上涨会 直接传导至制造业成本，进而影响终端消费价格。其次，金属价格与通 ...

Group 1 - Ontario Premier Doug Ford's strong stance against Chinese electric vehicles includes a demand for 100% tariffs, indicating a hardline approach to trade with China [1] - The agricultural sector in Saskatchewan is facing a crisis, with canola exports to China expected to plummet by 76% due to retaliatory measures, highlighting the economic impact of trade tensions [3] - The previous government's decision to impose high tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and steel products without proper investigation has led to significant trade disputes, affecting Canadian industries [5] Group 2 - The canola industry, a key sector with an export value of CAD 3.7 billion, has been severely impacted by the tariffs, prompting urgent calls for government intervention [6] - There is a growing sentiment in Canada to diversify trade and reduce reliance on the U.S., with the new Prime Minister Carney signaling a willingness to engage with China [8] - Legal experts have pointed out flaws in the tariff imposition process, suggesting potential negative outcomes for Canada if China pursues international trade dispute resolutions [8]

金瑞期货分析称，宏观方面，特朗普称暂缓对关键矿产征税，金属市场有所回落。基本面上，智利 Mantoverde铜矿出现罢工，厄瓜多尔Mirador铜矿二期扩产延期，铜矿紧张矛盾仍存。进出口方面，未 来国内淡季，或仍保持对外出口。消费端，近期下游消费表现仍走弱，减停产情况增加。国内平衡保持 较多过剩。海外方面，CL价差收窄，需持续观察美国进口量，可能影响未来紧张预期。展望后市，暂 缓关税令市场有所降温，但对铜影响可能不大，CL价差未出现明显变化。因此，预期的紧张维持尚未 扭转和证伪看待，铜价总体的偏强震荡可能尚未结束。 广州期货指出，国内央行下调各类结构性货币政策工具利率0.25个百分点，并强调今年降准降息还有一 定空间，提振市场信心。产业面，铜市紧原料叙事逻辑持续，当前美国已琐死全球一半以上铜库存，非 美市场整体现货流通相对有限，警惕春节前后下游可能的补库行为或引发库存的去化，从而给价格带来 新的上涨驱动，近期LME库存再次转为下降，关注持续性，铜价维持易涨难跌态势。主力合约波动参 考10.1-10.5万。 1月16日，国内期市有色金属板块跌幅居前。其中，沪铜期货主力合约开盘报103030.00元/吨，今日盘 ...

Group 1 - The textile industry in Lesotho, a key sector for the economy, is facing severe challenges due to the U.S. tariff policy, impacting employment and social stability [1] - Before the tariff imposition, textile companies in Lesotho produced approximately 500,000 garments monthly, primarily for export to the U.S. and South Africa, employing around 2,000 local workers with an annual output value of about $6 million [1] - Following the increase in tariffs and the expiration of the African Growth and Opportunity Act, orders plummeted to about 100,000 garments per month, leading to layoffs of over 1,000 workers and affecting thousands of families [1] Group 2 - Despite the U.S. reducing the initial tariff rate from 50% to 15%, the expiration of the African Growth and Opportunity Act and additional taxes have resulted in a comprehensive tax rate exceeding 40% for some textile products, eroding price competitiveness in the U.S. market [2] - Some factories in Lesotho have adopted a "short work" model, where 1,000 workers are employed for two weeks while another 1,000 work the following two weeks, effectively halving their income and highlighting the vulnerability of the economy reliant on a single export product [2]

Group 1 - As of December 2025, Donald Trump's investments in municipal and corporate bonds include bonds from companies related to his government policies, totaling at least $51 million [1] - The bonds purchased include those from Netflix (NFLX.US), CoreWeave (CRWV.US), General Motors (GM.US), Boeing (BA.US), Occidental Petroleum (OXY.US), and United Rentals (URI.US), along with municipal bonds from various U.S. cities, school districts, utilities, and hospitals [1] - Trump completed 189 buy transactions and 2 sell transactions between November 14 and December 29, with the total value of sell transactions reaching at least $1.3 million [1] Group 2 - Since returning to the White House in January 2025, Trump has completed 690 transactions totaling at least $104 million, with further transactions in November and December amounting to $106 million, including three additional sell transactions worth $2 million [2] - A senior White House official stated that Trump and his family did not participate in investment decisions, and an independent financial manager used a recognized index replication investment strategy for bond purchases [2] Group 3 - Unlike previous presidents, Trump has not divested personal assets or placed them in a blind trust, with his business empire managed by his two sons, leading to potential conflicts of interest with presidential policies [3] - During foreign visits, Trump actively promoted Boeing aircraft and highlighted the company's successful sales to international airlines [3] - Trump emphasized General Motors' strategy to move production of popular models back to the U.S., claiming it demonstrates the effectiveness of his tariff policies in revitalizing American manufacturing [3]

中辉有色观点 | | 11 | | A 100 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | I | | | 74 C | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | 关税未裁决，美联储降息概率反复，地缘问题一波三折，地缘溢价交易继续，流动 | | | 长线持有 | 性风险偏好尚可。中长期来看，地缘秩序重塑，不确定性持续存在，央行继续买黄 | | ★★ | | 金，长期战略配置价值不变。 | | 白银 | | 白银未被征收关税市场情绪有所舒缓，但同时避险交易、交割逼仓、资源品交易预 | | ★★ | 长期持有 | 期持续。短期注意节奏控制。长期降息、供需缺口连续 5 年，全球大财政均对白银 | | | | 长期有利，长期滚动做多逻辑不变。 特朗普暂缓重要矿产关税，英伟达数据中心铜需求大幅缩水，美国持续虹吸全球铜 | | 铜 | 长线持有 | 资源，短期铜高位震荡，建议多单持有，移动止盈落袋，新入场等待充分回调，中 | | ★ | | 长期对铜依旧看好。 | | | | LME 拒绝韩国锌业锌锭注册仓单，受事件型冲击影响，锌迅速拉涨，隔夜高位 ...