Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Coke: The spot market prices of coke in Rizhao Port and Qingdao Port have increased week - on - week. The coke futures main contract is driven by the warm - up of the macro - environment, the results of the Sino - US summit, and supply - side expectations. However, the upstream - downstream game is intense, and the fundamental upward drive is limited, with cost support from coking coal and sentiment support from the macro - environment being the relative positives [6][33]. - Coking coal: On October 30, the coking coal futures main contract rose, with a decrease in open interest. The spot price of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port increased week - on - week. The coking coal market has weak supply and demand recently, but the warm - up of the macro - environment and industry policy expectations drive the main contract to maintain a strong trend [6][33]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industry Information - Sino - US economic and trade consensus: The US will cancel the 10% "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods and suspend the 24% reciprocal tariff for one year. China will adjust counter - measures accordingly. Both sides will extend some tariff exclusion measures. The US will suspend the implementation of some export control rules, 301 investigation measures on China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries for one year, and China will take corresponding actions [8]. - The price of coking coal in Linfen Anze market remained stable on October 30, with the ex - factory price of low - sulfur main coking clean coal being 1600 yuan/ton [9]. 2. Spot Market - Coke prices: Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke flat - price index is 1570 yuan/ton, up 3.29% week - on - week; Qingdao Port's quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke ex - warehouse price is 1530 yuan/ton, up 2.68% week - on - week [6][33]. - Coking coal prices: The latest quotation of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port is 1390 yuan/ton, up 6.11% week - on - week [6][33]. 3. Futures Market - Coke: The closing price of the active contract is 1786.5, with a daily increase of 0.59%. The trading volume is 19,482, and the open interest is 39,742, with a decrease of 747 compared to the previous trading day [14]. - Coking coal: The closing price of the active contract is 1288.0, with a daily increase of 1.62%. The trading volume is 1,060,058, and the open interest is 692,345, with a decrease of 14,346 compared to the previous trading day [14]. 4. Related Charts - Coke inventory: There are charts showing the inventory of 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel - mill coking plants, port coke, and total coke inventory over the years [15][16][17][18]. - Coking coal inventory: There are charts showing the inventory of mine - mouth coking coal, port coking coal, 247 sample steel - mill coking coal, and all - sample independent coking plants' coking coal over the years [20][23][25][30]. - Other charts: There are charts related to domestic steel - mill production, Shanghai terminal wire - rod procurement, coal - washing plant production, coking plant operation, etc [27][28][31][32]. 5. Market Outlook - Coke: The spot market prices are rising. The futures main contract is driven by macro - factors and supply - side expectations, but the fundamental upward drive is limited [6][33]. - Coking coal: The futures main contract shows a strong trend, driven by the macro - environment and policy expectations, despite weak supply and demand [6][33].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Rongsheng Petrochemical, indicating a positive outlook for the company's stock performance relative to the market [5]. Core Insights - The company's performance exceeded expectations, with a notable recovery in profitability driven by the refining sector and a potential recovery in the polyester market due to policy changes aimed at reducing competition [5]. - The report highlights a significant increase in net profit for Q3 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 1427.94%, indicating strong operational performance [5]. - Future growth is anticipated from new material projects and a partnership with Saudi Aramco, which is expected to enhance the company's long-term growth prospects [5]. Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is projected at 343.298 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.2% [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to reach 2.936 billion in 2025, reflecting a substantial increase of 305.3% compared to the previous year [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 0.29 in 2025, with a projected increase to 0.75 by 2027 [4]. - The report notes a gross margin of 10.7% for 2025, with an anticipated improvement in return on equity (ROE) to 6.3% [4]. Market Context - The report discusses the impact of Brent crude oil prices on refining margins, with a calculated refining price difference of 1471 yuan/ton for Q3 2025, indicating a favorable market environment for the refining sector [5]. - The polyester market is currently facing challenges due to oversupply, but the report suggests that internal industry cooperation may lead to a recovery in profitability [5]. - The anticipated "anti-involution" policies are expected to facilitate the exit of less competitive refineries, thereby improving the overall refining landscape [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tongkun Co., Ltd. (601233) [6] Core Views - The polyester industry is currently under pressure, but the "anti-involution" policy is expected to accelerate industry recovery [6] - The company's Q3 performance was slightly below expectations, with a revenue of 67.397 billion yuan, down 11.38% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 53.83% to 1.549 billion yuan [6] - The report anticipates a gradual improvement in profitability for the polyester segment due to reduced capital expenditures and favorable industry policies [6] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is projected at 102.542 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 1.2% [5] - The net profit for 2025 is estimated at 2.127 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 77.0% [5] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 5.8% in Q1-Q3 2025 to 7.6% in 2026 [5] - The report highlights a decrease in polyester filament sales volume in Q3 2025, which reached 3.19 million tons, down 7.5% quarter-on-quarter [6] - The PTA industry is facing continued pressure, but a rebound is anticipated as leading companies enter a phase of coordinated production cuts [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance exceeded expectations, with a notable recovery in profitability driven by the "anti-involution" policy, which is expected to boost industry recovery [6] - The report highlights a potential improvement in refining margins and polyester market conditions, suggesting a favorable outlook for the company's future performance [6] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is estimated at 343.298 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.2% [5] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 2.936 billion in 2025, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 305.3% [5] - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to reach 0.29 in 2025, with a projected PE ratio of 35 [5] - The company achieved a gross margin of 12.19% in Q3 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 0.48 percentage points [6] Market and Industry Analysis - The report indicates that the refining sector is showing signs of recovery, with Brent oil prices increasing and a projected refining margin of 1,471 yuan/ton in Q3 2025, up 202 yuan/ton from the previous quarter [6] - The polyester market is currently facing challenges due to oversupply, but the "anti-involution" policy is expected to lead to coordinated production cuts, which may improve market conditions [6] - The company's new materials projects and collaboration with Saudi Aramco are anticipated to enhance future growth prospects [6]

Core Viewpoint - The recent reports from the Central Committee and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology provide clear guidance for the development of China's non-ferrous metal industry, emphasizing a path of high-quality green development [1][2]. Supply Side Analysis - The reports indicate a focus on the protection of strategic minerals and controlled growth of production capacity, aiming for low-speed, stable, and high-quality growth in non-ferrous metal output [2][3]. - The protection and increase of strategic mineral reserves are crucial due to China's low reserves and high external dependence, with the government planning to utilize long-term special bonds to support resource development [3]. - The production of ten types of non-ferrous metals is projected to grow by 4.3% year-on-year in 2024, with an average annual growth target of around 1.5% for 2025-2026, indicating a significant contraction in supply growth [4]. Demand Side Analysis - The reports highlight the expansion of demand driven by the development of new productive forces and related industries, particularly in green low-carbon energy and new material sectors [6][7]. - The demand for copper is expected to see a compound annual growth rate of 16% from 2025 to 2030 due to emerging applications in electric vehicles and data centers, significantly impacting global copper demand [7]. Export Regulation and Strategic Positioning - China is transitioning from being a "resource power" to a "rule power," implementing export licensing and quota management for rare metals to secure global pricing power [8][9]. - The export controls on rare earths and gallium have become strategic tools in trade relations, with significant price increases observed in the market due to these measures [9].

Core Insights - The market sentiment has significantly improved, leading to multiple new fund products being closed early since October [1] - The Jiashi Growth Sharing Mixed Securities Investment Fund raised 3.368 billion yuan and became one of the leading new funds in terms of fundraising scale in October [1] - The fund's early closure was announced to better protect the interests of fund shareholders, reflecting high investor recognition [1] Fund Performance and Strategy - The Jiashi Growth Sharing Mixed Fund is positioned with a growth style, with a performance benchmark set at a combination of various indices [1] - The fund manager, Meng Xia, is noted for a quality growth investment style, aligning well with the fund's objectives [2] - Meng Xia has a strong track record, with his managed Jiashi Growth Driven Mixed Fund achieving a net value growth rate of 76.77% since its inception, significantly outperforming its benchmark [2] Market Outlook - The fund manager, Li Tao, holds a positive outlook on the A-share market, expecting a trend of upward fluctuations due to supportive fiscal policies and easing global liquidity conditions [3] - The information industry, particularly in AI computing and optical communication, is experiencing increasing demand and order fulfillment, which is expected to drive growth [3] - The focus on quality growth and the identification of long-term investment opportunities in excellent companies is emphasized as a strategic approach moving forward [3]

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is showing signs of recovery in Q3 performance, primarily due to the reduction of internal competition, rising polysilicon prices, and previous production cuts improving the supply-demand balance. The industry's valuation remains historically low, indicating potential for recovery [1]. Group 1: Industry Performance - In September 2025, domestic newly installed photovoltaic capacity reached 9.66 GW, a month-on-month increase of 31.25%, although it still declined by 53.76% year-on-year. Cumulatively, from January to September, the total newly installed capacity was 240.27 GW, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 64.73% [2]. - In September, domestic polysilicon production was approximately 129,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 5.3%. Mainstream silicon wafer production reached 56.85 GW, up 6.46% month-on-month [3]. Group 2: Policy and Market Outlook - The "14th Five-Year Plan" suggests accelerating the construction of a new energy system and increasing the proportion of renewable energy supply, while promoting the safe and orderly replacement of fossil energy. This includes enhancing the efficiency of fossil energy use and advancing the development of new energy storage and smart grids [1]. - The implementation of anti-involution policies is expected to lead to the elimination of outdated production capacity, with a gradual reduction in supply across various segments anticipated in the fourth quarter [3].

智通财经APP获悉，TrendForce集邦咨询发文称，11月多晶硅市场将面临供给减少及终端需求下降的"供需双弱"局面。在高库存压力下，尽管反内卷政策可 能助力硅料价格弱势维稳，但多晶硅大厂挺价意愿已现轻微松动。从供需面看，多晶硅涨价动力不足，需密切关注收储政策是否带来价格提振。 当前行业整体库存依旧保持在42万吨以上，且硅料厂库存后续有继续抬升趋势，主要系下游拉晶端自身库存依旧高企且观望情绪浓厚，仅按需采购。 当前行业开工增减不一，主要有红狮海东单线实现满产；通威包头分线检修，通威云南保山逐步降低开工率、乐山基地准备开始降开工率；协鑫乐山基地开 工率小幅下降、新特准东产能继续爬坡、南玻青海少量产出、晶诺稳定运行、东方希望宁夏新项目维持个别反应器试生产、戈恩斯继续检修，青海丽豪产能 爬坡。 硅片 现阶段硅片库存仍高于20GW，市场弥漫跌价预期，电池厂提货速度放缓，专业化硅片厂继续累库。从尺寸结构上来看，210RN库存压力持续，183N和210N 供需保持相对平衡。 光伏组件 随着寒冬淡季趋势逐渐显现，国内外装机需求后续均呈现下降趋势。 短期内，需求仍主要靠国内集中式项目支撑，其中210版型需求旺盛，需求有望延 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - With the gradual alleviation of unfavorable factors from trade frictions, stock indices may return to an upward channel. Even if short - term macro uncertainties increase, the adjustment space of stock indices is expected to be limited due to policy support and abundant macro - liquidity. It is advisable to go long on stock indices when opportunities arise [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term warning on interest - rate risks suppresses the upward space [1] - The initial consensus between China and the US has improved market risk appetite, suppressing precious - metal prices. However, the upcoming Fed rate cut and the ongoing US government shutdown will still support the gold price. Short - term gold prices are expected to fluctuate [1] - The significant decline in the London lease rate has led to the shock adjustment of silver [1] - The recent improvement in macro sentiment and the limited industrial - side drive have led to the slightly stronger and volatile operation of aluminum prices [1] - In the context of continued production profits, domestic alumina production capacity is continuously released, with both production and inventory increasing. The weak fundamentals are pressuring the spot price, and recent attention should be paid to cost support [1] - The recent strengthening of the LME zinc 0 - 3 spread has increased the risk of a short squeeze, strengthening the expectation of zinc exports and driving up the domestic zinc price. Short - term Shanghai zinc is expected to maintain high - level volatility [1] - The alleviation of Sino - US trade frictions has lifted market risk appetite. Attention should be paid to the progress of the Sino - US high - level meeting in South Korea at the end of the month. The Fed rate cut will boost the non - ferrous sector. The implementation of Indonesia's RKAB new policy requires attention to the quota approval in 2026 in the fourth quarter, and be vigilant against mine - end disturbances [1] - The alleviation of Sino - US trade frictions has increased market risk appetite. Attention should be paid to the progress of the Sino - US high - level meeting in South Korea at the end of the month. The stainless - steel futures are expected to rebound in the short term, and short - term operations are recommended, waiting for opportunities to sell on rallies in the medium and long term [1] - The improvement in macro sentiment and the rebound of the semiconductor sector have led to the short - term strong and volatile operation of tin prices under the influence of macro sentiment. Medium - and long - term, opportunities to go long on dips are recommended [1] - The Southwest's industrial - silicon production is weaker than in previous years, and the impact of the dry season is weakened. Polysilicon production is expected to decline in November, and the market sentiment has faded due to the long - term non - implementation of the anti - involution policy [1] - The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, and the energy - storage demand is strong. Although the supply - side production schedule has increased, the overall demand is large [1] - The industrial drive of rebar and hot - rolled coils is unclear, and their futures valuations are low. Directional trading is not recommended [1] - Near - month iron ore is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and there is still an upward opportunity for far - month contracts [1] - The direct demand for ferromanganese - silicon is good, but the supply is high, and the inventory is at a high level, so the price is under pressure and fluctuating [1] - The supply and demand of glass are supported, and short - term sentiment is dominant. The price decline is limited, and the price fluctuation is strengthening [1] - Following glass, the supply of soda - ash is in excess, and the price is under pressure [1] - Supported by supply - side positive news and strong fundamentals, coking coal is challenging the previous high of the "anti - involution" trade, but the inconsistency of supply and demand among black - sector varieties may not have changed, and there are signs of stagflation in thermal coal in recent days. Whether coking - coal futures can break through successfully is highly uncertain, and it is advisable to wait and see [1] - Similar to coking coal, the coke futures are at a premium. Industrial customers can consider selling some spot on rallies [1] - Indonesia's expected implementation of B50 next year provides support. Currently, the high inventory in Malaysia in September and the expected inventory accumulation in October are pressuring the palm - oil futures. It is advisable to wait and see for the production - area's production cut and inventory reduction cycle [1] - With the upcoming Sino - US leaders' meeting, the negotiation result may bring new guidance. Currently, with the expected reduction of raw - material supply in the fourth quarter and the oil mills' expected reduction of operating rates to support prices, the expected inventory reduction of soybean oil supports the futures. With multiple factors intertwined and a lack of new drivers, it is advisable to wait and see [1] - The expected improvement in Sino - Canadian relations is pressuring the rapeseed - oil futures. Domestic rapeseed is still in short supply, and the rapeseed - oil inventory is continuously decreasing from a high level. It is advisable to wait and see for unilateral trading [1] - The expansion of Xinjiang's cotton - spinning capacity and the reduction of spinning profits have led to great uncertainty in the new - year's cotton demand. The current futures price has fully priced in the selling pressure of new crops, and the downside space is limited, but the new - crop basis and futures price may continue to be under pressure due to the record - high production [1] - Typhoons around the National Day have had an adverse impact on sugar - cane harvesting and production in South China. There is seasonal upward momentum for sugar prices in the short term, but the expected supply increase after the new - sugar listing will limit the rebound space [1] - The corn inventory in the north and south ports is low, and the short - term supply from production areas has decreased, so the price in the north port is firm. The futures and spot prices are expected to face selling pressure later, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate and bottom out, but the expected high enthusiasm of traders to build inventories will limit the downside space [1] - Under the expectation of Sino - US negotiations, the US futures market has risen strongly. With high policy uncertainty, domestic short - selling funds have reduced positions to avoid risks. The domestic purchase - ship profit is still poor, and the domestic futures valuation is low. The futures price is expected to continue to rebound in the short term, and attention should be paid to Sino - US policies and South American weather [1] - The trading logic of pulp is related to the old - warehouse receipts of the November contract. With weak downstream demand, the futures price is under pressure, and a November - January reverse spread is recommended [1] - The fundamentals of logs have declined, but the spot price is firm. After a sharp decline in the futures price, the risk - return ratio of short - selling is low, and it is advisable to wait and see [1] - The live - hog spot price has stabilized recently due to secondary fattening and increased slaughter volume with the cooling weather. Although the futures price is at a premium to the spot price, changes in the slaughter volume and weight need to be awaited, and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate [1] - OPEC+ may continue to maintain a small - scale production increase in November, short - term geopolitical speculation has cooled down, and the US attitude towards tariffs on China has softened [1] - The short - term supply - demand contradiction of fuel oil is not prominent and follows crude oil. The expected "14th Five - Year Plan" rush - work demand is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Marey crude oil is sufficient [1] - The raw - material cost of natural rubber provides strong support, the mid - stream inventory is continuously decreasing, and the commodity - market atmosphere is positive [1] - The decline in crude oil prices has weakened the cost support of butadiene for synthetic rubber. The supply of synthetic rubber is abundant, and the high - level production and inventory have not been the main constraints, and the mainstream supply price has been continuously reduced [1] - The news of the PTA industry's planned "anti - involution" policy has pushed up the PTA price. Overseas device failures and the decline in the operating rate of some domestic reforming devices, as well as the rotation inspection of large domestic PTA devices, have led to a decline in PTA production [1] - The decline in crude oil prices has led to a decline in ethylene - glycol prices, while the rise in coal prices has slightly strengthened the cost support of domestic ethylene - glycol. The "Golden September and Silver October" of the polyester industry is coming to an end, and there has been no significant decline in domestic demand [1] - The news of the PTA industry's planned "anti - involution" policy has pushed up the PTA price, and the basis of short - fiber has strengthened. The short - fiber price continues to closely follow the cost [1] - The Asian benzene price remains weak, the operating rates of STDP and reforming devices have declined, the arbitrage window from Northeast Asia to the US remains closed, the profit of domestic styrene has decreased, the styrene device maintenance has gradually increased, and the crude - oil price has continued to decline [1] - The export sentiment of urea has eased, and the domestic demand is insufficient, so the upside space is limited, but there is support from the anti - involution policy and the cost side [1] - The center of the crude - oil market price has slightly declined, the maintenance intensity has weakened, the downstream demand has slowly increased, and the PE price is fluctuating slightly stronger [1] - The maintenance support for PP is limited, the downstream improvement is less than expected, and the futures price is returning to fundamentals and fluctuating weakly [1] - The PVC futures price is returning to fundamentals, the maintenance has decreased compared with the previous period, the supply pressure is large, and there are many near - month warehouse receipts, so the futures price is fluctuating weakly [1] - There are many planned alumina projects in Guangxi, the subsequent maintenance concentration will decline, and the warehouse - receipt digestion is difficult, with the high - concentration caustic - soda price in an inverted state [1] - The international oil and gas fundamentals are continuously loose, the CP/FEI prices are weakening, the PG futures price has repaired its valuation, but the C3/C4 spot prices are still under pressure, and the domestic fundamentals are continuously loose [1] - The container - shipping European line is gradually entering the contract - changing rhythm. The freight rate is approaching the full - cost line, and it is expected to stop falling and stabilize [1] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Stock Indices - With the alleviation of trade - friction factors and policy support, stock indices may rise, and it is advisable to go long on dips [1] Bonds - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but short - term interest - rate risks suppress the upward space [1] Precious Metals - Gold is affected by both market - sentiment suppression and fundamental support, and short - term gold prices are expected to fluctuate. Silver is adjusting due to the decline in the London lease rate [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper prices are expected to remain strong, aluminum prices are fluctuating slightly stronger, alumina fundamentals are weak, zinc prices are expected to remain high and volatile, and nickel prices are affected by supply and macro factors. The industry is also affected by Sino - US relations and Indonesian policies [1] Black Metals - Rebar and hot - rolled coils lack clear industrial drive, iron - ore near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, ferromanganese - silicon is under supply - side pressure, glass is supported by supply and demand, soda - ash follows glass, coking coal and coke face uncertainties in supply - demand consistency [1] Agricultural Products - Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are affected by international policies, inventory, and Sino - foreign relations. Cotton demand is uncertain, sugar has short - term seasonal support, and corn prices are affected by inventory and supply - demand expectations [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil, fuel oil, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, PTA, ethylene - glycol, short - fiber, benzene, urea, PE, PP, PVC, alumina, and SLPG are affected by factors such as supply - demand, policies, and raw - material prices [1] Others - Container - shipping European - line freight rates are expected to stop falling and stabilize, pulp trading is related to old warehouse receipts, logs' spot price is firm, live - hog prices are expected to fluctuate, and the market sentiment of various commodities is affected by Sino - US relations and international policies [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For industrial silicon, the spot price is stable, and the intraday rebound of the futures market is mainly driven by the sharp rise of commodities such as coking coal. Starting from the end of October, production in Southwest China will be reduced, and the supply - demand pattern may improve. The industrial silicon futures market is mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy news. If there are relevant policies, the market may have room to rise. For polysilicon, the supply - demand fundamentals are average, with large inventory pressure. Although production may decrease in November, downstream production scheduling may also weaken. The futures market is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, with large fluctuations. In the medium - to - long - term, it is suitable to layout long positions at low prices [2][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On October 29, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price showed a strong and volatile trend. The main contract 2601 opened at 8,995 yuan/ton and closed at 9,170 yuan/ton, up 1.61% from the previous settlement price. The position of the 2511 main contract was 220,662 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 47,338 lots, a decrease of 706 lots from the previous day. The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon in East China was 9,300 - 9,400 yuan/ton, and 421 silicon was 9,500 - 9,800 yuan/ton. The price of organic silicon DMC was 10,800 - 11,200 yuan/ton and is expected to decline slightly under pressure [1] Strategy - Short - term range operation is recommended, and long positions can be taken on the dry - season contracts at low prices. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [2] Polysilicon Market Analysis - On October 29, 2025, the main contract 2601 of polysilicon futures fluctuated. It opened at 54,600 yuan/ton and closed at 54,990 yuan/ton, up 0.72% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 118,430 lots, and the trading volume was 307,284 lots. The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The weekly output of polysilicon was 29,500 tons, a decrease of 4.84% month - on - month, and the output of silicon wafers was 14.73GW, an increase of 2.65% month - on - month. The production of polysilicon in October is expected to be about 133,500 tons, an increase from September, and production in Southwest China is expected to decline significantly in November [3] Strategy - Short - term range operation is recommended. The 11 main contract is expected to fluctuate between 49,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton, and the 12 contract is expected to fluctuate between 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [5]