1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various non - ferrous metals including copper, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, etc., covering market trends, supply - demand relationships, and trading strategies. It emphasizes the impact of factors such as inventory levels, production capacity changes, and macro - economic indicators on metal prices, and offers corresponding trading suggestions for different metals [7][15][24]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Copper 2507 contract closed at 78,640 yuan/ton, up 0.4%, with the Shanghai Copper Index adding 10,391 lots to 535,600 lots. Spot premiums declined due to end - of - quarter inventory clearance and capital needs [2]. - **Important Information**: First Quantum Minerals halted operations at the accident area of the Zambian Trident project. Sentinel Copper's 2025 copper production guidance is 20 - 230,000 tons. Jiangxi Shangxin's 80,000 - ton copper product project is under environmental assessment. A new study shows that Ivanhoe Electric's Santa Cruz copper project could produce 72,000 tons of copper cathode annually in the first 15 years [3][4]. - **Logic Analysis**: Antofagasta insists on a long - term processing fee of - 15 dollars/ton. LME inventory decreased, and the ratio may decline further. Domestic smelters increased refined copper exports, and the spot premium dropped due to end - of - half - year factors. Copper price upside is limited [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, focus on LME delivery risks. For arbitrage, continue to hold the borrow strategy. For options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [8][9]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The Alumina 2509 contract fell 4 yuan to 2,903 yuan/ton. Spot prices in various regions declined [11]. - **Important Information**: India's latest alumina deal was 30,000 tons at 366 dollars/ton. Expected end - of - month production capacity may change due to short - term maintenance. Yunnan Aluminum will strengthen bauxite resource acquisition [12]. - **Logic Analysis**: Although the expected production capacity increase may be affected by short - term maintenance, the short - term surplus of bauxite remains. Alumina prices are expected to fluctuate between full cost and cash cost of high - cost production capacity [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [16][17]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Aluminum 2508 contract fell 105 yuan/ton to 20,315 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions declined [19]. - **Important Information**: Israel and Iran agreed to a cease - fire. US and Eurozone PMI data were released. China's May photovoltaic new - installed capacity increased significantly. The Tongliao green - power aluminum project entered the core equipment installation stage [20][21]. - **Logic Analysis**: High aluminum prices led to inventory increases. Low inventory and Middle - East situation uncertainties will affect aluminum prices. After the seasonal off - season in August, low - inventory - driven price differentials may expand [24]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, prices are expected to fluctuate widely. For arbitrage, consider a 9 - 12 positive spread later. For options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [25]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The Casting Aluminum Alloy 2511 contract fell 70 yuan to 19,625 yuan/ton. Spot prices remained stable [27]. - **Important Information**: May automobile production and sales increased, and new - energy vehicle production and sales grew significantly. Guizhou Guangyu plans a 200,000 - ton recycled aluminum project [27]. - **Logic Analysis**: Domestic recycled casting aluminum alloy production slightly decreased, and the market lacks continuous driving forces. Prices are expected to fluctuate with aluminum prices [29]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, prices are expected to fluctuate with aluminum prices. For arbitrage, consider trading when the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is between - 200 and - 1,000 yuan. For options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [30][31]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Zinc 2508 rose 0.85% to 21,920 yuan/ton. Spot premiums remained stable, but downstream purchasing willingness was low [34]. - **Important Information**: As of June 23, SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventory decreased. Some zinc smelters in South China were affected by heavy rain [35]. - **Logic Analysis**: Under macro - influence, zinc prices may fluctuate. Domestic zinc consumption is in the off - season, and supply has increased significantly in June. Zinc prices may decline with inventory accumulation [36]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider shorting in the far - month contracts at high prices. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [37]. Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Lead 2508 rose 0.44% to 16,960 yuan/ton. Spot prices and downstream battery production enterprises' procurement were stable [38]. - **Important Information**: As of June 23, SMM's five - region lead ingot inventory decreased [41]. - **Logic Analysis**: Domestic primary lead smelter operating rates are high, but lead concentrate imports decreased. Recycled lead smelters are in losses. Supply may tighten, and demand is in the off - season. Lead prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [42]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider going long in the far - month contracts at low prices. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [43]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Nickel main contract NI2508 fell 420 to 117,630 yuan/ton. Spot premiums of different nickel types changed [45]. - **Important Information**: The wet - process phase III ONC project's tailings pond in Indonesia was completed. LME revised lending rules. Iran and Israel declared a cease - fire [46][47]. - **Logic Analysis**: The easing of the Middle - East situation and weakening demand in June led to a supply - demand imbalance. LME inventory increased, and nickel prices are expected to decline and test the bottom again [48]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, prices are expected to decline. For arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach. For options, consider selling call options [49][52]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2508 contract fell 35 to 12,440 yuan/ton. Spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled products are given [54]. - **Important Information**: World stainless steel crude steel production in Q1 2025 increased year - on - year. Qing Shan added a public warehouse in Foshan, and its July high - carbon ferrochrome long - term procurement price was flat [55]. - **Logic Analysis**: US tariffs on steel appliances will affect demand. Supply reduction by Chinese and Indonesian steel mills is insufficient, and inventory is difficult to reduce. Nickel ore prices are firm, but NPI prices are falling [56]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, prices are expected to continue to decline. For arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach [57][58]. Tin - **Market Review**: The main Shanghai Tin 2507 contract rose 780 to 263,800 yuan/ton. Spot prices increased, but trading was light [60]. - **Important Information**: Global PMI data were released, and Congo - Kinshasa and Rwanda will sign a peace agreement [62]. - **Logic Analysis**: Shanghai Tin continued to fluctuate within a range. Tin ore supply is currently tight, but the annual supply - demand tightness expectation has eased. Demand is in the off - season [63]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, pay attention to the tin ore resumption rhythm. For options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [64][65]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures main contract closed at 7,485 yuan/ton, up 1.08%. Spot prices were stable [66][67]. - **Important Information**: May's social electricity consumption data were released [68]. - **Logic Analysis**: Although demand increased in June, production also increased. The supply - demand surplus situation remains. Futures prices rebounded due to market sentiment and downstream procurement. Prices may decline as production increases [71]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider shorting later. For options, sell out - of - the - money call options. For arbitrage, participate in Si2511 and Si2512 reverse spreads [71]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures main contract closed at 31,085 yuan/ton, up 0.48%. Spot prices declined [73]. - **Important Information**: China's new photovoltaic and wind power installed capacities from January to May 2025 increased significantly [74]. - **Logic Analysis**: In June, polysilicon production increased, and inventory decreased. Silicon wafer prices fell, and spot prices are under pressure. The futures market logic has changed, and prices are expected to decline [75]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider shorting. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [78]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2509 contract rose 1,800 to 60,700 yuan/ton. Spot prices of different types of lithium carbonate declined [79]. - **Important Information**: IEA predicted global lithium production. Relevant departments promoted new - energy vehicle safety management and consumption. A lithium - boron mining project in Tibet was approved [80][81]. - **Logic Analysis**: Market rumors and warrant cancellations led to a price rebound. New - energy vehicle sales may be stimulated, but the growth rate may slow down. Lithium salt plants may resume production in July, and inventory is expected to increase [82]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider shorting on rebounds. For arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach. For options, sell out - of - the - money call options [83].

Core Viewpoint - Cotton prices have shown a strong upward movement recently, but there are no substantial factors to support a sustained bullish trend in the market [1][3][4] Supply and Demand - Domestic cotton inventory in Xinjiang continues to decline, and transportation costs have decreased, leading to increased basis quotes from traders [1] - The demand from textile factories is weak, with a significant amount of cotton (estimated over 400,000 tons) yet to be priced, which may provide short-term support for cotton prices [1][2] - Weaker terminal demand has resulted in rising inventory levels for spinning enterprises, causing a decrease in their operating rates [2][4] Market Outlook - Institutions like Everbright Futures suggest that the likelihood of cotton prices maintaining a strong performance is low due to weak demand and sufficient inventory levels across the supply chain [3][4] - The market is currently facing pressure from a strong resistance level around 13,620 yuan/ton, which has been tested multiple times [3] - The overall market sentiment remains cautious, with potential risks accumulating due to declining spinning rates and rumors of increased import cotton quotas [5]

【冠通研究】 关注后续出口支撑 制作日期：2025 年 6 月 24 日 【策略分析】 今日尿素盘面低开高走，尾盘收跌，现货市场成交转弱，市场价格与工厂 价格倒挂，下游采购情绪低迷。供应端来看，本周预计 4-5 家装置复产，周度 产量继续回升上涨，国际尿素供应预计也将受伊以冲突缓和的影响，供应偏紧 压力缓解，对价格呈现压制，需求端，周内期货盘面回调，市场成交氛围不温 不火，复合肥保持刚需拿货，农需成交环比上周转淡，基本面宽松，预计本周 库存除出口需求外将累库，近期出口将继续跟进，但国际尿素价格下降可能平 抑前期伊以冲突带来的行情反弹，基本面来看盘面中长期维持震荡偏空，后续 农需跟进情况及出口消息将决定行情反弹力度。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2509 合约 1679 元/吨低开高走，最终收于 1698 元/吨， 收成一根阴线，涨跌-0.93%，持仓量 247071 手（+13911 手）。前二十名主力持 仓席位来看，多头+10710 手，空头+18419 手。其中，永安期货净多单增加 3321 手、东证期货净多单增加 3990 手；方正中期净空单增加 13222 手，中信期货净 空单增加 2980 手 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential impact of the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and geopolitical risk concerns on gold prices, questioning whether bullish sentiment can reverse the current market situation [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is adopting a more dovish tone, which may influence market dynamics and investor sentiment towards gold [1] - Geopolitical risks are rising, contributing to increased interest in safe-haven assets like gold [1] - An invitation is extended for a free training session focused on trading opportunities in the gold market, highlighting the urgency and limited availability of spots [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Corn: Bullish [1] - Soybean Meal: Bullish with a focus on spreads and long - side approach [1] - Oils: Bullish [1] - Eggs: Bearish [1] - Pigs: Bullish [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - Corn prices are supported by the purchase price increase of deep - processing enterprises in Northeast China, but the market is waiting for news of imported corn auctions. Technically, it is advisable to participate in short - term long positions with a light position [1]. - The decline in soybean meal prices is due to the drop in import costs and increased domestic supply pressure. It is recommended to hold long spreads and maintain a long - side single - position strategy [1]. - Palm oil prices are affected by factors such as strong crude oil prices and a weakening Malaysian ringgit. For oils, a strategy of long futures and selling out - of - the - money call options, along with buying September and selling January contracts for soybean oil and palm oil, is suggested [1]. - Egg prices are under pressure from supply and the negative impact of the rainy season on demand. It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to farmers' culling intentions and market sentiment [1]. - Pig prices are rising, with the spot price rebound supporting the futures price. It is recommended to hold long positions and observe [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information - Israel is continuing to attack Iran's military infrastructure while seeking to end the war as soon as possible [3]. - From June 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield increased by 2.67% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.03% month - on - month, and production increased by 2.5% month - on - month [3]. - India's soybean oil imports in June are expected to decline by 18% month - on - month, reaching the lowest level in four months [3]. - China calls on the international community to promote conflict de - escalation to prevent the regional situation from affecting the global economy [3]. - Iran's Revolutionary Guard has launched the 21st round of the "True Commitment - 3" operation, targeting military and logistics support centers across Israel [3]. - China National Grain and Oils Reserves Corporation plans to hold a competitive procurement session for 14,000 tons of sunflower oil on June 26 [3]. 3.2 Variety Spreads - The report presents various contract spreads, including those of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs [5][7][8][12] - The report also shows various contract basis, such as those of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs [14][18][19][25]

交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 6 月 24 日星期二 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-6-24） | | | | 铁矿：本期全球铁矿石发运总量环比回升，主流矿山发运量贡献较大，整 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 体处于近年来同期高位水平，铁矿发运有冲量预期。产业端淡季，五大钢 | | | | | 材产量增，铁水止跌回升，铁矿港口库存仍旧在去库，说明当前 240 的高 | | | 铁矿石 | 反弹 | 铁水仍旧能驱动港口去库，关注后续铁水持续回落状况。唐山传出钢铁企 | | | | | 业烧结机减产 30%的消息，对原料端需求有下移空间，若铁水破 240 万 | | | | | 吨，铁矿后期将承压下跌。策略上，短期盘面反弹，中长期待情绪性反弹 | | | | | 结束后可酌情加空单。 | | | | | 煤焦：近日主产区环保检查升级，内蒙乌海及临汾地区停产煤矿及洗煤厂 | | | | | 较多，供应端有所收缩。焦炭方面，随着焦煤价格下跌，焦企入炉煤成本 | | | 煤焦 | 低位震荡 | 下降，多数企业保持在盈利 ...

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PTA：供需驱动仍弱 摘 要： PTA 方面，尽管福海创和恒力装置检修兑现，不过随 着新装置投产，且 PTA 后续装置检修计划不多，但终端订 单疲软导致下游仅能被动跟涨，需求未实质性改善，织机 印染开工下滑亦削弱补库持续性预期，7 月 PTA 供需仍弱。 成本方面，6 月尽管 PX 检修装置逐步回归，但下游 PTA 因 检修装置重启叠加新装置投产较预期提前，PX 供需预期仍 偏紧，6 月仍存去库预期，短期 PX 支撑仍偏强；原油短期 受地缘左右。PTA 观望或短线交易。 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775 号 作者姓名：师秀明 期货从业资格号：F0255552 期货交易咨询从业证号：Z0001784 邮箱：shixiuming@nzfco.com 策略建议：观望或短线 PTA周度跟踪报告 第 1 章 行情回顾 PTA09 合约震荡偏强。09 合约周度开盘 4820，最高 5044，最低 4694，收盘 4978，周度涨 196 或 4.10%。 图表 1：PTA09 合约价格走势 第 2 章 价格影响因素分析 风险提示：无 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 2.1 ...

涨跌都能赚 盈利就能离场！点击开通期货"T+0、双向交易"特权！>>> | 名称 | 代码 . | 现价 | 张跌涨幅结 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 欧线集运2 ... ec2508 | | 1875.0 | -91.9 -4.67% | | 2 多品硅2508 ps2508 | | 30615 | -1045 -3.30% | | 3 菜籽2507 | RS507 | 5125 | -153 -2.90% | | 4 尿素2509 | 60580 | 1711 | -35 -2.00% | | 5 鸡蛋2508 | 142508 | 3569 | -53 -1.46% | | 6 甲西享2509 MA509 | | 2504 | -34 -1.34% | 交割品牌调整，纸浆、原木涨幅居前，纸浆盘中一度涨近4%，但日内逐步回落！集运、多晶硅领跌，集运盘中一度跌超6%，多晶硅跌破3 万关口，再创上市以来新低！ 光大期货：西南复产上量，多晶硅身陷囹圄 周一，多晶硅延续上周跌势，价格进一步逼近整数关口，日内跌幅超2%，并伴随10%以上增仓。现货价格来看，多晶硅P型下跌1300元/ ...

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