2026.01. 31 BCA研究公司美国债券策略师斯威夫特（Ryan Swift）称，从美联储公布的利率预期来看，他们似乎 认为本轮宽松周期已接近尾声。今年美国实际国内生产总值将实现强劲增长，通胀率将继续下行，失业 率则会保持平稳或小幅下降。若美联储的预期假设成为现实，情况则会更为复杂。"委员们对于2026年 应采取何种利率政策，仍存在相当大的意见分歧。事实上，相比对经济前景的看法，美联储委员们在利 率政策上的分歧要更为明显。" 本文字数：2507，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 当地时间周五（30日），美国总统特朗普宣布美联储新任主席人选——凯文·沃什。这位长期批评美联 储的人士，将迎来把自己的货币政策体系理念付诸实践的契机，与此同时，当下白宫正试图加强对利率 制定的掌控。 隔夜，美股震荡下行，美元汇率和债券收益率则应声走强，黄金价格大幅跳水。市场预期沃什会支持降 息，但远不会像其他潜在提名者那样采取激进的宽松货币政策。一是他拥有美联储任职履历，二是华尔 街普遍认为，他不会一味听命于特朗普。 分裂的美联储 如果通过美国国会表决，沃什将面临的将是内部分歧剧烈的美联储。今年美国经济料将延续强劲 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp declines in gold and silver prices, with gold dropping approximately 9% and silver around 26%, are seen as a natural correction following significant prior gains, as both metals were technically overbought [1][4][5] Price Movements - On Friday, spot gold closed at $4,883.45 per ounce, down over $700 from the weekly high of $5,596, marking a 2.06% decline. Spot silver closed at $85 per ounce, down over $36 from the weekly high of $121.6, reflecting a 17.64% drop [1] - Gold experienced its largest single-day drop since 1983, while silver recorded its largest drop ever, with January's cumulative gains narrowing to 13% for gold and 19% for silver [1][4] Market Analysis - Analysts noted that the previous surge in metal prices was unsustainable, with gold and silver rising nearly 20% and over 40% respectively in January, leading to a market correction [4] - The volatility in the metals market has been exacerbated by a thinning liquidity environment, as market makers are increasingly reluctant to hold risks [4][5] Future Outlook - Despite the current sell-off, analysts do not believe the overall upward trend has been fundamentally damaged, with expectations that the correction will attract buying interest [5] - The macroeconomic factors supporting gold and silver prices, such as rising G7 debt and geopolitical uncertainties, remain intact, suggesting continued bullish sentiment [6][7] - Analysts predict that gold could reach $6,000 per ounce by the end of the year, with potential support levels around $4,600 per ounce [5][6] Economic Influences - The market's reaction to U.S. economic and interest rate policy changes has amplified the recent price declines, particularly following President Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh for the Federal Reserve chair [7] - Warsh's potential influence on U.S. monetary policy is viewed as a critical turning point, with expectations that he may not deviate from Trump's preference for lower interest rates [7][8] - Current inflation data complicates the Fed's policy path, with producer prices rising significantly, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [8]

凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）在长达近十年的等待后，终于赢得了特朗普的美联储主席提名。 然而，这位新掌门人将很快迎来首个现实检验：他承诺的"降息、缩表与制度改革"，是否具备真正的执 行空间。 沃什在竞逐过程中强调"美联储需要体制性转向"（regime change）：主张在控制通胀的同时，通过缩减 资产负债表和推动结构性改革，为更低利率创造条件。 但现实环境并不宽松。 市场定价先行：短期不押注降息 在去年年底三次降息后，美联储于2026年1月按下了暂停键。 面对顽固的通胀、企稳的劳动力市场以及对2026年更强劲增长的预期，市场情绪已发生逆转。 Rabobank宏观策略师Stefan Koopman指出： "这是一个既显得强硬、又能为未来降息提供掩护的方案。" 市场担心，如果通胀压力未明显回落，"降息+缩表"可能反而收紧金融条件，削弱政策效果。而沃什 的"三板斧"能否落地，不仅取决于他的意愿，更取决于宏观数据的配合。 AI生产率假设，成为关键前提 沃什为其政策框架提供的核心支撑，是对AI驱动生产率提升的判断。 他在11月《华尔街日报》的一篇评论文章中详细阐述了他的方针： 利率市场的态度更为谨慎，交易员们目 ...

本周五（30日），国际黄金、白银价格大幅下跌。截至收盘， 纽约商品交易所黄金期货主力合约价格 跌破每盎司4800美元关口；纽约商品交易所白银期货主力合约跌破每盎司80美元关口，较前一个交易日 下跌31.37%。 30日美国三大股指集体下跌 当地时间本周五，美国总统特朗普提名凯文・沃什出任美联储下一任主席，市场分析认为沃什立场偏鹰 派，可能不会支持大幅降息，他在美联储任职期间曾多次表达对通胀上行的担忧。消息公布后，市场维 持美联储今年只降息两次的预期。另外，最新公布的美国去年12月生产者价格指数（PPI）超预期增 长，显示生产端通胀压力顽固，以上多个因素打压市场风险偏好，截至收盘，美国股市延续前一日跌势 集体下跌，其中道指跌0.36%，标普500指数跌0.43%，纳指跌0.94%。 个股方面，受益于iPhone销量的大幅增长，苹果公司公布的2026财年第一财季营收超预期增长，苹果公 司股价周五收涨0.46%。从周线上看，本周美国三大股指涨跌不一，其中道指累计下跌0.42%，标普500 指数累计上涨0.34%，纳指下跌0.17%。 因美国总统特朗普重申对与伊朗进行谈判持开放态度，削弱了地缘政治风险溢价，国际油价本 ...

具体行情显示，现货白银价格自北京时间23:00开始加速下滑，凌晨02:40左右跌至盘中低位每盎司74.31美元，跌幅最大时超过36%。截至收盘，现货白银 下跌26.42%报85.259美元/盎司。 据智通财经报道，周五（1月30日）纽约时段，国际贵金属价格大幅跳水，其中现货白银一度跌超36%，黄金最高跌超12%。 现货黄金价格也几乎在同一时间跌至每盎司4683.04美元的日内低位，跌幅最高时超过12%。截至收盘，现货黄金下跌9.25%报4880美元/盎司。 Evercore ISI副董事长Krishna Guha称，市场正在按"鹰派沃什"进行交易，"沃什的提名有助于稳定美元，并降低美元持续走弱的单边风险，从而挑战'货币 贬值交易'的逻辑——这也是金银大幅下跌的原因。" 特朗普提名凯文·沃什 为下任美联储主席 据央视新闻报道，美国总统特朗普30日提名美联储前理事凯文·沃什为下任美联储主席，这一提名还需获得参议院批准。 沃什2006年加入美联储，是当时最年轻的美联储理事。在美联储任职期间，沃什持鹰派货币政策立场，但近年转向支持特朗普的关税政策及加快降息立 场。 值得一提的是，特朗普在首个总统任期内提名鲍威尔为美联 ...

Group 1 - A panic sell-off swept through the global precious metals market, with silver prices dropping by 34.67% from above $110/oz to $75.38/oz, and gold prices falling by 12.41% from $5,400/oz to $4,709.68/oz [1] - The latest gold price recorded was $4,709.68, reflecting a decrease of $667.46 or 12.41% from the previous closing price of $5,377.14 [2] - The trading range for gold showed a volatility of 14.22%, with a high of $5,450.95 and a low of $4,686.12 [2] Group 2 - U.S. stock markets experienced a decline, with the Nasdaq down 1.22%, the Dow Jones falling over 1%, and the S&P 500 decreasing by 0.92% [4] - The nomination of Kevin Walsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman has raised concerns regarding monetary policy direction and the independence of the Fed, with expectations of interest rate cuts between 50 to 100 basis points over the next year [4] - CICC analysts suggest that the gold bull market may not be over, despite gold prices deviating from fundamental indicators, indicating increased market volatility and difficulty in predicting specific price points [4] Group 3 - CICC anticipates that by early 2026, U.S. inflation will continue to rise, leading to a marginal improvement in U.S. growth, which may slow the pace of monetary easing and exert temporary pressure on gold prices [5] - Looking further ahead, with a new Federal Reserve Chairman taking office in May 2026, a downward turning point in U.S. inflation is expected in the second half of 2026, potentially accelerating interest rate cuts and supporting further increases in gold prices [5] - The same logic applies to silver, which may experience greater price volatility due to its smaller market size and lower liquidity compared to gold [5]

据路透社1月29日报道，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普29日表示，他计划在当地时间1月30日上午，即北京时 间30日晚间宣布美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的继任人选，此前关于鲍威尔将于5月卸任后谁将领导美国央 行的猜测愈演愈烈。 特朗普在其本年度首次内阁会议上说："我们即将宣布美联储负责人人选。"他还重申了其一贯的大幅下 调利率主张。 沃什被市场认为是"鹰派中的温和派"。他在胡佛研究所的一次深度访谈中，坚称通胀仍是美联储的核心 职责之一，"通胀不是外部因素（如供应链或地缘政治）的结果，美联储完全有能力决定价格水平。"他 指责美联储在"大稳健"时期（Great Moderation）后误以为通胀已死，从而在非危机时期维持了过于庞 大的资产负债表，导致通胀飙升。 为此，他主张"缩表结合谨慎降息"的策略组合，通过缩减7.7万亿美元的资产负债表规模（QT），为降 低联邦基金利率创造空间。2025年12月，他在与特朗普的会面中承诺支持降息，但其历史立场与当前主 张存在明显矛盾。这种立场转变被市场解读为"为迎合特朗普而做出的政治妥协"。 还值得一提的是，他在2006年2月~2011年3月由小布什总统担任美联储理事，因反对第二轮QE而闻 ...

把"浙江之声"，更容易找到我们 美股全线下跌，纳指跌1.22%，道指跌超1%，标普500跌0.92%。 30日，美国总统特朗普提名美联储前理事凯文·沃什为下任美联储主席。 沃什2006年加入美联储，是当时最年轻的美联储理事。在美联储任职期间，沃什持鹰派货币政策立场，但近年转向支持特朗普的关税政策及加快降息立 场。该消息发布后，市场迅速聚焦其货币政策取向及美联储独立性问题。市场普遍认为，美联储未来一年降息幅度大致集中在50个基点至100个基点之 间。 中金公司分析指出，由于美联储政策与美国经济尚未出现拐点，因此黄金牛市可能并未结束。但在黄金价格已经脱离基本面指标与模型拟合后，市场波动 或明显增大，具体点位预测难度较高，建议淡化黄金价格点位预测，更关注资产趋势改变时点。 中金公司预期在2026年初，由于美国通胀持续上行，美国增长边际改善，美联储可能放缓宽松节奏，或对黄金表现形成阶段性压制。但是再往前看，随着 2026年5月新的美联储主席就职，2026下半年美国通胀迎来下行拐点，美联储可能再次加速降息，为黄金继续上涨提供新的支持。因此未来黄金牛市可能 不是单边行情，而会跟随美联储政策与美国经济动向出现波动。"上述逻 ...

Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices declined, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling below 49,000 points, closing down 179.09 points or 0.36% at 48,892.47 points. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.94% to 23,461.82 points, and the S&P 500 fell 0.43% to 6,939.03 points. Despite the decline, all three indices recorded gains in January, with the S&P 500 and Dow up 1.4% and 1.7%, respectively, and the Nasdaq up 1% [3][14]. Inflation and Economic Indicators - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for December exceeded expectations, with a month-over-month increase of 0.4% and a year-over-year increase of 3.5%, matching the highest level in nearly a year. This indicates persistent inflationary pressures in the U.S. economy [9][22]. Commodity Performance - International oil prices showed slight fluctuations, with WTI crude oil near-month contracts down 0.32% at $65.51 per barrel, and Brent crude down 0.03% at $70.69 per barrel. The precious metals market experienced significant declines, with COMEX gold futures for February delivery dropping 11.37% to $4,713.90 per ounce, marking the largest drop since January 1980. Silver futures fell 31.35% to $78.29 per ounce, the worst performance since March 1980 [4][15]. Individual Stock Performance - Apple Inc. saw a 0.46% increase, driven by strong iPhone demand, with Q1 FY2026 earnings surpassing Wall Street expectations. However, concerns regarding memory supply chain issues remain, with upcoming quarterly reports being critical for short-term stock performance [5][17]. - Tesla Inc. rose 3.32%, while other major tech stocks like Google, Nvidia, Microsoft, Amazon, Oracle, and Meta experienced declines ranging from 0.04% to 2.95% [5][17]. - Verizon Communications Inc. surged over 11% after reporting adjusted earnings and net revenue that exceeded market expectations, along with a $25 billion stock buyback plan [19]. Chinese Market Indices - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell 2.36%, with major companies like Alibaba, NetEase, Baidu, and JD.com all declining over 2%, and Pinduoduo down 1.59% [8][20].

Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices declined, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling below 49,000 points, closing down 179.09 points or 0.36% at 48,892.47 points. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.94% to 23,461.82 points, and the S&P 500 fell 0.43% to 6,939.03 points. Despite the drop, all three indices recorded gains for January, with the S&P 500 and Dow up 1.4% and 1.7% respectively, and the Nasdaq up 1% [3][10]. Inflation and Economic Indicators - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for December exceeded expectations, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4% and a year-on-year increase of 3.5%, matching the highest level in nearly a year. This indicates persistent inflationary pressures in the U.S. economy [10][11]. Commodity Market - International oil prices showed slight fluctuations, with WTI crude oil near-month contracts down 0.32% at $65.51 per barrel, and Brent crude down 0.03% at $70.69 per barrel. The precious metals market experienced significant declines, with COMEX gold futures for February delivery dropping 11.37% to $4,713.90 per ounce, marking the largest drop since January 1980. Silver futures fell 31.35% to $78.29 per ounce, the worst performance since March 1980 [4][5]. Individual Stock Performance - Apple Inc. saw a slight increase of 0.46%, driven by strong iPhone demand and better-than-expected Q1 2026 earnings. However, concerns regarding memory supply chain issues remain, with upcoming quarterly reports being critical for short-term performance [6][7]. - Tesla shares rose 3.32%, while other tech stocks like Google, Nvidia, Microsoft, Amazon, Oracle, and Meta experienced declines ranging from 0.04% to 2.95% [6][7]. - Verizon's stock surged over 11% after reporting adjusted earnings and net revenue that exceeded market expectations, along with a $25 billion stock buyback plan [8]. Chinese Tech Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell 2.36%, with major Chinese companies like Alibaba, NetEase, Baidu, and JD.com all declining over 2%, and Pinduoduo down 1.59% [9].