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7月2日汇市晚评:日本央行利率低于中性水平 美元/日元143.50附近波动
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-07-02 10:55
Currency Market Overview - The Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate halted its upward trend that began on June 18, fluctuating around 1.1800 during European trading on Wednesday [1] - The British Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) has risen for the fourth consecutive trading day, trading above 1.3700 on Thursday [1] - The Dollar to Yen (USD/JPY) maintained its overnight rebound, fluctuating around 143.50 [1] - The Australian Dollar to Dollar (AUD/USD) remained in a range below the year-to-date high of 0.6590 reached on Tuesday [1] - The New Zealand Dollar to Dollar (NZD/USD) showed positive momentum near 0.6050 [1] - The Dollar to Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD) fluctuated in a narrow range around 1.3650 [1] Key Economic Indicators - The market is awaiting the release of the U.S. ADP employment figures for June at 20:15 [1] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated that it is too early to assert whether a rate cut in July is premature, indicating flexibility in decision-making [2][4] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen expressed confidence that the Federal Reserve will cut rates before autumn, with a guarantee of a cut by September at the latest [5] International Central Bank Commentary - Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda noted that current interest rates are below neutral levels, with any rate hike dependent on three inflation dynamics [7] - European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde mentioned that while the mission is not complete, the goals have been achieved, emphasizing vigilance regarding inflation [8] - Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey indicated that the direction of interest rates remains downward, with significant uncertainty regarding terminal rate levels [9] Technical Analysis - The EUR/USD is showing short-term overbought conditions with immediate support at 1.1800 and further support at 1.1740 and 1.1700-1.1690 [16] - The AUD/USD maintains a bullish outlook, with potential resistance at 0.6583 and further at 0.6650, while initial support is at 0.6529 [17] - The GBP/USD has shown a slight decline below the 20-period simple moving average, with next support at 1.3650 [17]
欧洲央行管委Rehn:欧洲央行处境不错,但没有理由自满。担心通胀在较长时间内低于目标。不能容忍通胀持续低迷影响市场预期。未承诺遵循特定利率路径。通胀风险具有双向性(上行与下行风险并存)。欧元升值助力央行实现2%通胀目标。欧元确实有机会提升其国际地位。汇率并非政策调控目标。
news flash· 2025-07-02 10:52
Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is in a stable position but should not become complacent, as there are concerns about inflation remaining below target for an extended period [1] Group 1: Inflation Concerns - The ECB cannot tolerate prolonged low inflation affecting market expectations [1] - There is no commitment to follow a specific interest rate path, indicating flexibility in monetary policy [1] - Inflation risks are characterized by both upward and downward pressures [1] Group 2: Currency and Economic Position - The appreciation of the euro aids the ECB in achieving its 2% inflation target [1] - The euro has the potential to enhance its international standing [1] - Exchange rates are not a target for policy adjustment [1]
欧洲央行管委雷恩:不能让低于预期的通胀改变市场预期。
news flash· 2025-07-02 10:45
Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member, Rehn, emphasized that lower-than-expected inflation should not alter market expectations [1] Group 1 - Rehn's statement indicates a commitment to maintaining the current monetary policy stance despite fluctuations in inflation data [1] - The ECB aims to ensure that market expectations remain stable and are not swayed by temporary changes in inflation [1] - This approach reflects the ECB's broader strategy to manage inflation expectations effectively within the Eurozone [1]
匈牙利央行副行长:在通胀偏离目标区间的情况下,没有关于放松货币政策的讨论内容。
news flash· 2025-07-02 10:41
匈牙利央行副行长:在通胀偏离目标区间的情况下,没有关于放松货币政策的讨论内容。 ...
若鲍威尔怂了、美联储提前降息,对市场意味着什么?
华尔街见闻· 2025-07-02 10:27
Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs analyst Vickie Chang's report analyzes four scenarios in which the Federal Reserve may implement monetary easing earlier than expected, highlighting that a decline in U.S. Treasury yields and a weaker dollar will be the main trends across all scenarios [1][2]. Scenario Summaries Scenario 1: Downward Inflation Risk Drives Rate Cuts - If inflation data continues to exceed expectations or if the Fed believes the impact of tariffs is temporary, the market will lower the 2-year Treasury yield by 25 basis points [4]. - Market reactions include rising stock prices, declining bond yields, a steeper yield curve, and a broadly weaker dollar [5][6]. Scenario 2: Declining Growth Expectations Drive Rate Cuts - A 50 basis point downward adjustment in U.S. economic growth expectations will fully drive the rate cut [7]. - This scenario may occur due to further deterioration in labor market and economic activity data, especially if the market doubts the limited damage from tariffs [8]. - In this case, both stock prices and bond yields will decline, with a slightly weaker dollar overall [9][10]. Scenario 3: Dovish Policy + Downward Growth Expectations - This scenario combines dovish policy impacts with negative growth shocks, pricing in both Fed easing and downward growth expectations [11][12]. - The U.S. stock market will see slight declines, with bond yields dropping more than in the previous scenarios, a steeper yield curve, and a broadly weaker dollar [13]. Scenario 4: Dovish Policy + Upward Growth Expectations - In this scenario, the market prices in Fed easing while also raising U.S. economic growth expectations by 50 basis points [14]. - Risk assets perform strongly, with significant stock market gains, slight declines in bond yields, and a moderately weaker dollar, particularly against cyclical currencies [15]. Consistent Trends Across Scenarios - Across all scenarios, a decline in yields, a weaker dollar, and an increase in gold prices are consistent trends [16]. - The direction of the stock market is highly dependent on accurate assessments of growth expectations, as is the strength of risk currencies against the dollar [16][17]. Market Pricing and Future Outlook - The market has begun to price in Fed easing, and if data supports this, the trend may continue [18]. - Current market pricing for growth is slightly above the one-year forecast, but there is still potential for upward movement if the focus shifts to 2026 growth outlooks [18]. - If growth conditions remain stable, a dovish shift from the Fed could benefit risk assets, although current growth expectations appear relatively full compared to April [19].
英国央行货币政策委员Taylor:软着陆风险加大,英国经济(增速)放缓。担心通胀可能低于目标。更大的降息幅度不一定是必要的、可取的。不在(提前)预设的(利率)路径上,必须看数据。劳动力市场开始出现裂痕。经济存在闲置产能,产出缺口显现。潜在通胀压力正转向下行。担忧能源价格产生第二轮传导效应。通胀回落进程仍在持续。量化紧缩(QT)仍是可行选项。像利率一样,QT没有在预设的路径上。
news flash· 2025-07-02 09:53
Group 1 - The risk of a soft landing for the UK economy is increasing, with a slowdown in economic growth observed [1] - Concerns are raised that inflation may fall below the target [1] - The labor market is showing signs of strain, indicating the presence of idle capacity and an emerging output gap [1] Group 2 - Potential inflationary pressures are shifting downward, with worries about second-round effects from energy prices [2] - The process of inflation decline is ongoing [2] - Quantitative tightening (QT) remains a viable option, similar to interest rates, which are not on a predetermined path [2]
欧元/美元价格预测:技术性回调仍然可能
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-02 09:37
Core Viewpoint - The Euro/USD exchange rate has shown significant movement, with the Euro reaching a new high of 1.1830 before a slight decline, influenced by various economic and geopolitical factors [2][3]. Economic Indicators - The European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde emphasized the need for vigilance regarding inflation, as the Euro ended an eight-day rally [3]. - The U.S. dollar rebounded from previous lows following the Senate's approval of President Trump's comprehensive tax reform, which affected the Euro's upward momentum [3]. Geopolitical Factors - Recent geopolitical tensions have eased, contributing to a stronger interest in risk assets, thereby supporting the Euro and other risk-related currencies [5]. - Investors remain cautious about potential changes in Washington's trade stance, especially with the U.S. tariff suspension deadline approaching on July 9 [6]. Central Bank Policies - The divergence in policies between the ECB and the Federal Reserve continues, with the Fed maintaining interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% while adjusting inflation and unemployment forecasts due to tariff-related cost pressures [7][8]. - The ECB recently lowered its deposit rate to 2.00%, with Lagarde indicating that further easing would depend on a significant deterioration in external demand [8]. Market Sentiment - Speculators have increased their net long positions in the Euro, reaching the highest level since January 2024, while commercial participants have raised their net short positions [9]. - The total open interest in Euro contracts has also risen to approximately 762.6K, marking a two-week high [9]. Technical Analysis - Key resistance levels are identified at the 2025 high of 1.1829, with potential targets at the September 2018 high of 1.1815 and the June 2018 high of 1.1852 [10]. - Initial support is noted at the 55-day simple moving average of 1.1403, followed by lower support levels [10]. Outlook - The Euro's upward trend is expected to continue unless geopolitical or macroeconomic shocks occur, driven by reduced risk aversion and growing confidence in potential Fed policy easing [12].
6月债市回顾及7月展望:震荡格局下波段为主,关注大会增量
Yin He Zheng Quan· 2025-07-02 08:37
国收研究报告 可证券|CGS 震荡格局下波段为主、关注大 6 月债市回顾及 7 月展望 核心观点 债市回顾:利率震荡下行,收益率曲线牛陡 ● 6月以来,债市在中美谈判未超预期、央行阿护资金面、以伊冲突等因素的影响下,债 市震荡走强,短端下行幅度更大,10Y、1Y国债收益率分别下行 3BP、11BP。上半 月,在央行两度公告开展买断式逆回购呵护资金面、中美谈判未超预期、国际地缘冲突 加剧的影响下,债市走强,10Y 国债收益率下行 3BP;月下旬,在央行买断式逆回购 落地、重启国债买卖预期短暂落空、市场预期监管窗口指导的影响下,债市震荡略走 强. 10Y 国债收益率下行 0.4BP;月末,受止盈压力、权益市场走强带来的股债路路 板等影响, 债市震荡走弱, 10Y 国债收益率上行 1BP。截至 6 月 27 日,10 年期国债 收益率自1.67%下行 2.5BP 至 1.65%,1年期国债收益率自1.46%下行 11BP 至 1.35%, 期限利差走阔 8.5BP 至 30.1BP。 ● 本月债市展望:资金面大概率无虞,关注政治局会议政策加力信号 基本面来看,对于 6月,一方面继续关注 CPI 在 0 附近徘徊的可 ...