沪铜产业日报 2025/5/6 研究员: 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 助理研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建 议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发， 需注明出处为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | | 撰写人：王福辉 从业资格证号：F03123381 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0019878 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪铜(日,元/吨) | 77,600.00 | +380.00↑ LME3个月铜(日,美元/吨) | 9, ...

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is an aluminum industry daily report dated May 6, 2025, written by Wang Fuhui [1][2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - The alumina main contract oscillates weakly, with increasing open interest, spot premium, and strengthening basis. Its fundamentals may be in a stage of slightly shrinking supply and stable - to - increasing demand. It is recommended to trade with a light position with a weak - oscillation strategy [2] - The Shanghai aluminum main contract oscillates weakly, with decreasing open interest, spot premium, and weakening basis. The electrolytic aluminum market is entering a stage of synchronous growth in supply and demand and benign inventory digestion. It is recommended to trade with a light position with an oscillation strategy [2] Group 4: Market Data Summary Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 19,785 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract is 2,675 yuan/ton, down 54 yuan [2] - The LME aluminum three - month quote is 2,431.50 US dollars/ton, up 15.50 US dollars; the LME aluminum inventory is 411,575 tons, down 2,000 tons [2] Spot Market - The Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum price is 19,850 yuan/ton; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum price is 20,090 yuan/ton, down 270 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The alumina production is 747.52 million tons, down 3.23 million tons; the demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) is 723.72 million tons, up 76.70 million tons [2] Industry Situation - The total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is 4,517.20 million tons, unchanged; the production of aluminum products is 598.17 million tons, down 12.49 million tons [2] Downstream and Application - The production of automobiles is 3.0446 million vehicles, down 0.454 million vehicles; the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products is 51 million tons, up 14 million tons [2] Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum is 18.20%, up 0.05%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum is 14.36%, up 0.06% [2] Group 5: Industry News - In April, the US employment growth was strong, with the unemployment rate remaining stable. The non - farm payrolls increased by 177,000, higher than the expected 130,000, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.2% [2] - The Ministry of Finance plans to increase the deficit rate to 4% this year, with a deficit scale of 5.66 trillion yuan [2] - The eurozone's April manufacturing PMI was 49, higher than the expected 48.7 [2] - The "May Day" holiday saw a consumer boom in the "trade - in" policy. New energy vehicle sales in April were strong, with significant year - on - year growth for many brands [2] - In April, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, but high - tech manufacturing and related industries continued to expand [2]

假日消费是观测经济活力的重要窗口期，我们对五一假期消费数据简评如下。 一、出行：人员流动活跃，民航量价齐升 据交通运输部，今年五一假期期间（5月1日至5月5日），全社会跨区域人员流动量达14.66亿人次，日均超2.9 亿人次，同比增长7.9%，较2019年同期增长23.7%，超出节前预期。分出行方式看： 1）与2024年同期相比，各类出行方式的客运量实现平稳增长。 五一假期，水运/民航/铁路/非营业性小客车/营 业性公路客运量分别同比增长23.8%/11.8%/10.8%/8.1%/4.4%，水路表现相对突出。 2）与2019年同期相比，自驾出行仍是主力。 高速公路及普通国省道非营业性小客车人员出行量较2019年同期 增长超50%，在人员流动总量中占比接近八成，自驾出行延续高热度。营业性运输中，铁路、民航表现较好， 客流较2019年同期分别增长36.6%、24.2%；公路和水运恢复程度较低。 图1：五一期间各类出行方式累计客运量相比2024/2019年同期的增速 注 ： 公路- 非营业 性 包 含 高 速 公 路 及 普 通国省道非营业性小客车 3）民航市场从量升价跌到量价齐升。 从量上看， 据航班管家数据， ...

Core Insights - The total volume of recycling orders during the May Day holiday increased by 40% compared to the previous year [1] - Offline store transaction orders saw a significant rise of 50% during the same period [1] - The demand for recycling of idle goods was driven by the consumption market's trend of exchanging old for new [1] Industry Performance - The recycling order volume for personal care small appliances, kitchen appliances, and photography equipment surged by 700%, 550%, and 106% respectively [1]

Group 1 - The "old-for-new" consumption market in Feicheng, Shandong, is experiencing a surge during the May Day holiday, driven by government subsidies and enterprise discounts, leading to increased consumer demand for upgrades [1] - The local government has actively guided 248 sales enterprises in sectors such as automotive, home appliances, and mobile phones to participate in the "old-for-new" program, resulting in over 18 million yuan in subsidies and stimulating consumption exceeding 86.9 million yuan [1] - The New Cooperation Appliance Store has introduced promotional activities, including a "spend 10,000 yuan get 1,000 yuan back" offer, allowing consumers to enjoy comprehensive discounts exceeding 2,500 yuan [1] Group 2 - The electric bicycle market in Feicheng is also witnessing a "renewal" trend, with the local commerce bureau clarifying subsidy targets and optimizing processes, leading to a significant increase in sales [2] - Since the implementation of the national "old-for-new" policy for electric bicycles, over 1,000 units have been exchanged in Feicheng, with consumers receiving more than 500,000 yuan in various subsidies [2] - It is projected that by 2025, the total number of electric bicycles exchanged in the city will reach over 5,000 units [2]

央视网消息：记者从商务部了解到，今年"五一"假期，全国消费市场繁荣活跃。据商务部商务大数据监测，假期全国重点零售和餐饮企业 销售额同比增长6.3%。 假期期间，商务部重点监测零售企业家电、汽车、通讯器材销售额同比分别增长15.5%、13.7%和10.5%。商务部重点监测电商平台智能家 居产品销售额同比增长超20%。服务消费持续升温，餐饮文旅市场红火。据商务大数据监测，假期全国重点监测餐饮企业销售额同比增长 8.7%。 北京：数字消费新场景 交互体验聚人气 这个"五一"假期，北京的文化消费市场持续火热，一批首次投入市场的文化演出、数字文化消费新场景，激发了消费活力。 位于北京朝阳区的798文化园区内，全新推出的复合式VR院线，吸引了不少年轻消费者前来体验。实景搭建的VR沉浸展、炫酷的视觉艺 术、环绕式立体声音响效果，让不少消费者有了耳目一新的感觉。 得益于"五一"假期推出的首店、首展等首发经济效应，整个"五一"期间，园区接待游客量持续上升，日均入园量约6万人次。 上海："五一"假期线上线下消费同比增长13.1% 以旧换新备受欢迎。2025年初至5月5日0时，汽车以旧换新补贴申请量突破300万份；消费者购买12大 ...

【广发环保 郭鹏】环保行业2024年报及2025年1季报总结：流水迢迢，硕果累累 建议关注：聚光科技、皖仪科技、瀚蓝环境、盈峰环境、军信股份、海螺创业、永兴股份、绿色动力、旺能环境 等 2024年板块硕果累累：现金流、分红、成长多重亮点 24年/25Q1板块实现扣非归母净利199/72亿元，同比-5.9%/+3.8%，其中亮点： 1）#公用事业化，24年固废+水务扣非归母净利182亿元（同比+11. 【广发环保 郭鹏】环保行业2024年报及2025年1季报总结：流水迢迢，硕果累累 建议关注：聚光科技、皖仪科技、瀚蓝环境、盈峰环境、军信股份、海螺创业、永兴股份、绿色动力、旺能环境 等 2024年板块硕果累累：现金流、分红、成长多重亮点 24年/25Q1板块实现扣非归母净利199/72亿元，同比-5.9%/+3.8%，其中亮点： 1）#公用事业化，24年固废+水务扣非归母净利182亿元（同比+11.2%）、占板块比重91%（同比+14pct）； 2）#自由现金流转正、分红提高，板块24年经营性/投资性现金流净额分别为547/-472亿元，#对应简略自由现金流 75.8亿元，#首次转正，板块典型41支高分红标的分红 ...

Core Insights - The "May Day" holiday in Hangzhou saw a significant increase in tourism and consumer spending, with a total of 16.13 million visitors, a year-on-year increase of 53% [4] - The implementation of the "old for new" policy has effectively boosted consumer spending, with total consumption in five major sectors reaching 15.736 billion yuan, a 9% increase year-on-year [4][8] - The trend of long-distance travel to lesser-known destinations has surged, with booking volumes for certain regions increasing by over 100% compared to last year [5][6] Tourism and Consumer Behavior - Major tourist attractions in Hangzhou played a crucial role in attracting visitors, with immersive experiences offered at various scenic spots [5] - The demand for family-friendly and pet-friendly travel options has risen, with significant increases in bookings for family-oriented hotels and activities [6][7] - The "old for new" consumption policy has led to substantial sales growth in the automotive and home appliance sectors, with specific districts reporting sales increases of up to 46% [8] Retail and Commercial Activity - Key commercial districts in Hangzhou experienced a vibrant shopping atmosphere, with innovative events and promotions leading to significant sales figures, such as 2.15 billion yuan in the Hubin business district [9] - Various shopping centers and supermarkets reported impressive sales growth, with some achieving year-on-year increases of over 30% during the holiday period [9] - The overall consumer sentiment during the holiday indicates a shift towards quality experiences rather than just volume, reflecting a growing demand for differentiated offerings in the market [7][9]

Group 1 - The article highlights a surge in consumer spending during the "May Day" holiday, driven by various promotional strategies such as subsidies, discounts, and limited-time offers [1][2] - Retailers are increasingly focusing on enhancing customer experience through additional services like free installation and extended warranties, moving beyond traditional price competition [2][3] - The "old-for-new" subsidy policy has expanded beyond traditional replacement scenarios, allowing consumers to claim incentives even without old items, thus stimulating demand across various sectors [4][5] Group 2 - The central government has allocated 81 billion yuan for the 2025 consumer goods "old-for-new" subsidy program, providing financial support for local policy implementation [5] - The collaboration between fiscal funding and financial tools is creating a win-win situation for businesses and consumers, enhancing the breadth and depth of policy benefits [5][6] - The integration of subsidy policies with financial innovation is transforming the consumption dynamics, positioning "old-for-new" as a long-term engine for consumption upgrade [6]

Core Insights - Nanjing's business departments actively promoted consumption during the May Day holiday, launching diverse promotional activities that significantly boosted consumer enthusiasm and market activity [1][3][5] Group 1: Sales Performance - Over 100 monitored commercial enterprises in Nanjing achieved a sales revenue of 2.57 billion yuan during the holiday, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.3% [1] - More than 30 monitored department stores and complexes generated a total sales revenue of 940 million yuan over five days, reflecting a 6.4% year-on-year growth [3] Group 2: Promotional Activities - Nearly 100 promotional events were organized across various districts and commercial areas, including the launch of the "Foreign Trade Quality Products" exhibition, which generated nearly 170,000 yuan in sales [3] - The "2025 HOCH Hamburger Festival" attracted numerous consumers, showcasing over 30 hamburger brands from 12 provinces, enhancing local tourism and consumption [3] Group 3: New Commercial Formats - New commercial complexes like Jinling Central and Suning MAX Super Experience Store opened during the holiday, attracting significant foot traffic and sales [5] - The opening of the first Suning MAX store in Nanjing achieved sales exceeding 50 million yuan on its first day, indicating strong consumer interest in innovative shopping experiences [5] Group 4: Cross-Industry Integration - The integration of commerce, culture, and sports created immersive consumption experiences, with events like the 13th Mido Music Festival drawing 80,000 attendees and boosting local business [7] - Local businesses offered special packages and discounts to concert-goers, enhancing the synergy between cultural events and retail [7] Group 5: Green Consumption Initiatives - Nanjing's government launched a second round of automobile consumption subsidies, with individual consumers eligible for up to 4,000 yuan, stimulating the automotive market [9] - The city's initiatives in promoting the replacement of old appliances and vehicles contributed to over 400 million yuan in sales during the holiday [9] Group 6: Market Stability - Daily vegetable supply during the holiday reached 3,063.6 tons, a 2.1% increase compared to regular supply levels, while pork supply decreased by 33.8% compared to the previous period [10] - Wholesale prices for vegetables averaged 5.46 yuan per kilogram, showing a decline of 2% from the previous period, indicating stable market conditions [10]