Macnica社长原一将（横浜市） 日本Macnica的社长原一将：虽然存在地缘风险，但不聚焦中国市场是不可能的。目前我们主要经营欧 美厂商生产的半导体，但今后中国的需求方可能会避开欧美产品而选择中国本国产品…… 在中美对立激化的背景下，从事半导体经销业务的商社的竞争格局也发生变化。位居日本国 内首位的日本Macnica的原一将社长表示，"正在增加与中国半导体厂商的交易"，透露称该 公司正在采取措施防范政治风险。 记者：半导体市场行情复苏速度迟缓。 原一将： 工业设备需求不断下滑。原本预计2025年下半年半导体需求会复苏、2025年度销 售额会增长10%左右，但考虑到美国特朗普政府关税政策的影响，已调整为与上年基本持 平。 原一将 记者：在中美对立的情况下，如何实现增长？ 1994年毕业于甲南大学理学专业，1995年入职Macnica。曾担任营业统括部长、创新战略事 业本部长，2018年担任董事。2019年开始担任现职。出身于兵库县。 原一将： 虽然存在地缘政治风险，但不聚焦中国市场是不可能的。目前我们主要经营欧美厂 商生产的半导体，但今后中国的需求方可能会避开欧美产品而选择中国本国产品。因此，我 们目前正在 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that silver prices are on an upward trend due to geopolitical risks, inflation concerns, and positive price expectations, with predictions that silver will surpass gold in investment value by 2025 [1] - In the first half of this year, silver ETF net inflows reached 95 million ounces, surpassing the total for 2024, and bringing global silver ETF holdings to 1.13 billion ounces by the end of June, close to the historical high of 1.21 billion ounces set in early 2021 [1] - The value of silver holdings exceeded $40 billion for the first time in June, with monthly purchases contributing nearly half of the year-to-date increase [1] Group 2 - As of the latest market dynamics, silver futures closed at the second-highest level of the year, with a year-to-date increase of 28%, outpacing gold's 26% [2] - The current market is focused on various silver investment tools, including SLV and PSLV, as well as diversified combinations like GDXJ, NUGT, and others, indicating strong global capital expectations for silver [2] - The real-time price of silver is reported at $37.735 per ounce, reflecting active trading and positive market sentiment towards silver's future [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - EIA data shows that U.S. crude oil inventories have increased for the second consecutive week, similar to the trend reflected in API data. However, U.S. gasoline and diesel inventories remain at low levels, and the destocking trend has strengthened market expectations of a demand recovery. The good performance of the refined oil market and the support of crack spreads will encourage U.S. refineries to maintain high operating rates, and crude oil processing demand is expected to remain stable [3][5]. - The current crude oil market is influenced by both bullish and bearish factors. Bullish factors include geopolitical risks and seasonal demand support, while bearish factors mainly include OPEC+ production increases and weak macro sentiment. OPEC+ production increases will have a medium - to long - term impact on the crude oil market. The current peak demand season in the Northern Hemisphere has a limited bullish cycle, and the market may anticipate the peak - season inflection point in advance. The extension of U.S. tariff deadlines is a short - term emotional driver. Geopolitical risks are a major potential positive factor, but their impact on oil prices is expected to weaken after June. Overall, in the short term, oil prices are supported, and the market is more sensitive to bullish factors, but in the medium to long term, they are constrained by supply increases and weakening demand. The strategy is to view the crude oil market as volatile in the short term and bearish in the medium term [3]. Summary by Directory Market Dynamics Geopolitical - On July 9, local time, Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen said during a visit to Slovakia that if Israel and Hamas reach a temporary cease - fire agreement, Israel is willing to discuss a permanent cease - fire in Gaza. Cohen emphasized that Hamas still holds 50 Israeli hostages and that the war could end if Hamas releases all hostages and lays down its arms. He also denied that Israel was delaying the war and stressed the need to continue pressuring Hamas [4]. Macro - On July 9, local time, U.S. President Trump issued 8 tariff policy statements on his social media platform "Truth Social", targeting 8 countries including Brazil, the Philippines, Brunei, Moldova, Algeria, Iraq, Libya, and Sri Lanka. Trump plans to impose a 50% tariff on Brazil, 30% on Libya, Iraq, Algeria, and Sri Lanka, 25% on Brunei and Moldova, and 20% on the Philippines, effective August 1. Trump has sent tariff letters to 22 countries [4]. - The "Fed whisperer" Nick Timiraos interpreted that the Fed's latest meeting minutes showed that officials were divided into three camps: the mainstream group supports rate cuts this year but rules out a July cut; the second group advocates keeping the current interest rate level unchanged; the third group, a "minority", including possibly Fed governors Waller and Bowman, wants an immediate rate cut at the next meeting. The statement that "several participants said the current target range for the federal funds rate may not be much higher than the neutral level" implies that even if the Fed restarts rate cuts, the scope will be limited unless the economy slows significantly, reflecting the Fed's cautious attitude towards interest rate policies [5]. Fundamental - EIA data shows that as of the week ending July 4, U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 7.07 million barrels, in line with the lower limit of the 5 - year average. Last week, U.S. crude oil production decreased by 48,000 barrels per day, and exports increased by 452,000 barrels per day. Although the refinery operating rate decreased by 0.2% and crude oil processing volume decreased by 99,000 barrels per day, the current processing volume is still at a relatively high level in the same period of history, indicating good overall demand. In the refined oil market, U.S. gasoline inventories decreased by 2.658 million barrels and diesel inventories decreased by 825,000 barrels last week. Low inventory levels and the destocking trend have strengthened market expectations of a demand recovery [5].

Core Viewpoint - The current gold market is influenced by multiple factors including geopolitical risks, trade policy uncertainties, and central bank activities, leading to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Group 1: Fundamental Analysis - Trade policy uncertainties have escalated as the Trump administration announced tariffs of 25%-40% on imports from 14 countries, impacting global supply chains, particularly in electronics and automotive sectors, which boosts market risk aversion and supports gold prices [3] - Ongoing geopolitical risks are highlighted by recent attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea, leading to a surge in war insurance premiums and potential GDP declines, further enhancing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [4] - Diverging expectations regarding Federal Reserve policies are noted, with market anticipation of interest rate cuts despite the Fed's current stance, creating a complex environment for the dollar and providing potential support for gold [5] Group 2: Technical Analysis - The gold price is currently fluctuating within the range of $3280 to $3345 per ounce, with key resistance at $3345 and support at $3280, indicating a potential for upward movement if resistance is broken [9] - Short-term bullish momentum is indicated by the hourly chart, where gold has returned above moving averages, suggesting a possible upward trend if it maintains above $3310 [11] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Fund Flows - Short-term trading is dominated by risk aversion driven by trade tensions, geopolitical conflicts, and uncertainties surrounding Federal Reserve policies, leading to increased safe-haven buying of gold [13] - Institutional investment continues to flow into gold, with central banks increasing their gold reserves, indicating a shift from short-term hedging to long-term strategic allocation [15]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong Jockey Club plans to sell a significant portion of its U.S. assets, valued at up to $1 billion, amid rising geopolitical risks and escalating trade tensions [1] - The assets for sale include investments in well-known private equity firms such as Blackstone, TA Associates Management LP, Warburg Pincus, and Clayton Dubilier & Rice, with one fund alone containing assets worth $700 million [1] - The sale process, led by Jefferies Financial Group, began in the first quarter of the year, with some buyers starting to review the assets in April [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Jockey Club, as the largest lottery and gaming institution in Hong Kong, manages a substantial investment portfolio, with annual customer betting amounts reaching HKD 305 billion and generating HKD 43 billion in revenue from gaming and lottery operations in 2023 [2] - The current trend of Asian investors reassessing their U.S. asset allocations is reflected in the actions of approximately 10 ultra-high-net-worth family offices and advisory firms that have reduced or paused investments in the U.S. market to mitigate systemic risks arising from political and policy uncertainties [1]

Group 1 - Gold prices are currently experiencing narrow fluctuations, trading around $3302 per ounce, following a decline of over 1% on Tuesday, where it hit a low of $3287.06 per ounce, marking a one-week low [1] - The decline in gold prices is attributed to a combination of factors including optimistic trade negotiations, a strengthening dollar, rising U.S. Treasury yields, and the complexities of Trump's tariff policies [1][4] - The market is closely watching the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting minutes, which could influence future gold price movements [1] Group 2 - Recent optimistic signals from U.S. trade negotiations with major partners have reduced the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3] - President Trump warned of tariffs on 14 countries but postponed the effective date to August 1, allowing for further negotiations, which has led to market expectations for more lenient trade policies [3] - Japan and South Korea are actively seeking to mitigate the impact of tariffs through negotiations, with Japan focusing on concessions in the automotive sector while protecting agricultural interests [3] Group 3 - The global financial market's reaction to Trump's tariff policies has been cautious, with mixed performances in major indices, indicating investor hesitation amid trade negotiations [4] - Short-term pressures on gold prices are expected to continue due to optimistic trade sentiments, a strong dollar, and rising Treasury yields, while long-term uncertainties and inflation pressures may support gold [4] - Investors are advised to monitor developments in trade negotiations, monetary policy, and macroeconomic data to identify potential opportunities in gold prices [4]

Group 1: Market Trends - The "golden alternative" market is gaining traction, with silver and platinum becoming popular in the precious metals market [1] - Silver prices have surged, reaching over $37 per ounce in June, marking a nearly decade-high [1] - Platinum futures have also risen, hitting $1,447.9 per ounce, the highest since September 2014, with a year-to-date increase of over 50% [1] Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Consumers are shifting from gold to platinum jewelry, with some retailers reducing gold display space in favor of platinum [1] - Sales of silver investment products, such as silver bars and ingots, have seen a year-on-year increase of over 40% [1] Group 3: Investment Insights - Analysts suggest that the recent rise in platinum prices may stabilize, advising investors to focus on long-term asset allocation rather than short-term trading [3] - The demand for silver is driven by industrial needs in sectors like electric vehicles, AI, semiconductors, and 5G, alongside its appeal as a hedge against economic uncertainty [3][2] - A significant increase in new silver investment accounts and trading volume has been observed since May, indicating growing investor interest [3] Group 4: Investment Accessibility - The barriers to investing in silver are relatively low, with various channels available for domestic investors, including bank silver accounts and silver ETFs [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overnight, Trump's approval to send more defensive weapons to Ukraine and consideration of further sanctions on Russia raised geopolitical concerns and boosted oil prices. Meanwhile, the news of imposing tariffs on imported copper also caused market resonance and pushed prices up. However, the significant unexpected increase in API crude oil inventory in the early morning had a certain suppressing effect on oil prices. Short - term oil prices are expected to fluctuate, with short - term trading in the range of 510 - 520, and long - term investors are advised to wait and see [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: The US will impose tariffs of 25% - 40% on imported products from 14 countries including Japan and South Korea starting from August 1st, and extend the "reciprocal tariff" suspension deadline to August 1st. Trump approved sending more defensive weapons to Ukraine and considered further sanctions on Russia, which is neutral for the market [3]. - **Basis**: On July 8th, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $70.77 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $70.4 per barrel, with a basis of 15.17 yuan/barrel, indicating that the spot price was higher than the futures price, which is bullish [3]. - **Inventory**: The US API crude oil inventory for the week ending July 4th increased by 7.128 million barrels, far exceeding the expected decrease of 2.6 million barrels. The EIA inventory for the week ending June 28th increased by 3.845 million barrels, also exceeding the expected decrease of 1.809 million barrels. The Cushing region's inventory for the week ending June 28th decreased by 1.493 million barrels. As of July 8th, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory was 4.517 million barrels, a decrease of 440,000 barrels, which is bearish [3]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average was flat, and the price was below the moving average, which is neutral [3]. - **Main Positions**: As of July 1st, the long positions of WTI crude oil main contracts increased, while those of Brent crude oil main contracts decreased, which is neutral [3]. 3.2 Recent News - **Geopolitical News**: Trump approved sending more defensive weapons to Ukraine and considered further sanctions on Russia. He also said he was "very dissatisfied" with Russian President Putin. He is considering supporting a new bill in the Senate to impose severe sanctions on Russia. Additionally, Trump expanded the global trade war by announcing a 50% tariff on imported copper and threatening to impose tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals [5]. - **Supply - side News**: Saudi Arabia promoted OPEC+ to increase production rapidly. Eight major oil - producing countries decided to jointly increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August and accelerate the lifting of the 2.17 million barrels per day production cut plan that started in April. Combined with the UAE's additional production quota increase of 300,000 barrels per day, OPEC+'s production target for this year may be increased by 2.5 million barrels per day. However, the new quota may not significantly change the organization's total output as most member countries' actual production has reached or exceeded the quota levels [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: The intensification of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: OPEC+ has increased production for three consecutive months; the continuous tension in the US trade relations with other economies; the cease - fire between Iran and Israel [6]. - **Market Drivers**: In the short term, geopolitical conflicts drive up prices, and in the medium - long term, the market awaits the peak summer demand season [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The settlement price of Brent crude oil decreased from $68.80 to $68.30, a decrease of 0.73%. The settlement price of WTI crude oil decreased from $67.00 to $62.36, a decrease of 6.93%. The settlement price of SC crude oil increased from 503.7 to 506.4, an increase of 0.54%. The settlement price of Oman crude oil increased from $68.70 to $69.78, an increase of 1.57% [7]. - **Spot Market**: The price of UK Brent Dtd decreased from $71.28 to $70.91, a decrease of 0.52%. The price of WTI decreased from $67.00 to $66.50, a decrease of 0.75%. The price of Oman crude oil in the Asia - Pacific region increased from $69.84 to $70.03, an increase of 0.27%. The price of Shengli crude oil in the Asia - Pacific region increased from $66.72 to $67.07, an increase of 0.52%. The price of Dubai crude oil in the Asia - Pacific region increased from $69.70 to $69.85, an increase of 0.22% [9]. - **Inventory Data**: The API inventory for the week ending July 4th increased by 7.128 million barrels, far exceeding the expected decrease. The EIA inventory for the week ending June 27th increased by 3.845 million barrels, also exceeding the expected decrease [3]. 3.5 Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil**: As of July 1st, the net long positions of WTI crude oil funds were 234,693, an increase of 1,724 [15]. - **Brent Crude Oil**: As of July 1st, the net long positions of Brent crude oil funds were 166,717, a decrease of 25,881 [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of July 7, 2025, the crude oil market showed mixed characteristics. Short - term oil prices are expected to remain high and volatile, with the central price likely to rise by $2 - 3. OPEC+ production increase and geopolitical risks offset each other, and the actual production increase effect depends on Saudi Arabia's production release rhythm [2][3]. - The inventory structure shows regional differentiation. The tension in the Middle East may delay the crude oil shipping cycle, and the disruption of Red Sea transportation may trigger European refineries' restocking demand [3]. - The demand in the Indian market provides support. In June, gasoline consumption increased by 6.9% year - on - year, and the total fuel consumption reached 20.31 million tons. The increasing willingness of Asian refineries to start operations drives the cracking profit to expand [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **Price Performance**: SC crude oil futures prices fell slightly by 0.24% to 502.3 yuan/barrel, but the post - market main contract rebounded 2.13% to 512 yuan/barrel. WTI slightly declined by 0.06% to 66.46 dollars/barrel, while Brent rose 1.59% to 69.6 dollars/barrel. The Brent - WTI spread strengthened by 56% to 3.14 dollars/barrel, and the SC - Brent cross - regional arbitrage space narrowed by 77% to 0.41 dollars/barrel [2]. - **Supply - side**: OPEC+ plans to approve a production increase of 550,000 barrels per day in September on August 3, but the implementation effect is questionable. The Israeli air strike on the oil facilities in the port of Hodeidah has intensified the supply - chain risks in the Red Sea route [2]. - **Demand - side**: In June, India's gasoline consumption increased by 6.9% year - on - year, and the total fuel consumption reached 20.31 million tons. The increasing willingness of Asian refineries to start operations drives the cracking profit to expand, and the main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil rose 2% during the day [2]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The inventory structure shows regional differentiation. The SC spread (SC continuous 1 - continuous 3) narrowed to 14.8 yuan/barrel, and the Brent monthly spread structure remained steep [3]. - **Price Forecast**: Short - term oil prices are expected to remain high and volatile, with the central price likely to rise by $2 - 3. The production increase decision of OPEC+ and geopolitical risks offset each other. Technically, Brent has the momentum to rise further after breaking through the $69 resistance level, while WTI faces strong pressure around $67.5 [3]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Crude Oil**: The prices of SC, WTI, and Brent futures showed different trends. Key spreads such as Brent - WTI and SC - Brent changed significantly. The US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 0.93%, and the Cushing inventory decreased by 6.72%. The US refinery weekly operating rate increased by 0.21% [5]. - **Fuel Oil**: The prices of various fuel oil futures and spot products showed different changes. The Singapore inventory increased by 3.91%. The Chinese high - low sulfur spread increased by 2.60% [6]. 3.3 Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - **Supply**: OPEC+ oil - producing countries will approve a significant production increase of about 550,000 barrels per day in September on August 3 [7]. - **Demand**: In June, India's diesel sales increased by 1.6% year - on - year, gasoline sales increased by 6.9% year - on - year, and the fuel sales reached 20.31 million tons [9]. - **Inventory**: The main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil (LU) rose 2.00% during the day. The futures warehouse receipts of fuel oil and medium - sulfur crude oil remained unchanged [10]. - **Market Information**: As of 2:30 on July 8, the SC crude oil main contract rose 2.13%. The Brent crude oil futures price rose more than $1 during the day, and the night - session futures main contracts of the crude oil series all rose [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term outlook for precious metals is that gold is weaker than silver, mid - term they will oscillate at high levels, and long - term they will rise step - by - step. Factors influencing this include short - term easing of Middle - East geopolitical conflicts while risks of economic recession and geopolitical异动 remain; increasing risk of stagflation in the US economy, and strong employment suppressing rate - cut expectations. In terms of the safe - haven attribute, Trump extended the "reciprocal" tariff effective date. Regarding the monetary attribute, chances of the Fed's interest rate falling to near - zero still exist, and strong US employment growth reduces the possibility of a near - term rate cut. For the commodity attribute, the CRB commodity index has pressure on rebound, and a strong RMB suppresses domestic prices [3]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of the capital side, the net long position of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF have reduced positions again. On the inventory side, the recent visible inventory of silver has increased slightly [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, precious metals showed gold being weaker than silver. The main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 0.43%, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 0.22% [3]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [4]. - **Data Summary**: - **Price**: Comex gold main contract closed at $3346.40 per ounce, up 0.31% from the previous day and 0.95% from last week; London gold was at $3315.35 per ounce, down 0.50% from the previous day but up 0.85% from last week. Shanghai gold main contract closed at 776.22 yuan per gram, up 0.64% from the previous day and 0.02% from last week [4]. - **Positions and Inventories**: Comex gold positions decreased by 0.81% week - on - week; Shanghai gold main contract positions increased by 6.97% week - on - week. LBMA gold inventory remained unchanged at 8598 tons; Comex gold inventory decreased by 1.08% week - on - week [4]. - **Net Positions of Futures Companies**: Among the top 10 net - long positions of Shanghai gold futures companies at the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the total net - long position of the top 5 decreased by 798, and that of the top 10 decreased by 1787. Among the top 10 net - short positions, the total net - short position of the top 5 decreased by 21, and that of the top 10 increased by 125 [5]. Silver - **Strategy**: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy on dips. Position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [8]. - **Data Summary**: - **Price**: Comex silver main contract closed at $36.94 per ounce, down 0.27% from the previous day but up 1.68% from last week; London silver was at $36.25 per ounce, down 1.74% from the previous day and up 0.75% from last week. Shanghai silver main contract closed at 8953 yuan per kilogram, up 0.63% from the previous day and 1.62% from last week [8]. - **Positions and Inventories**: Comex silver positions decreased by 6.33% week - on - week; Shanghai silver main contract positions increased by 27.73% week - on - week. LBMA silver inventory increased by 4.08% week - on - week; Comex silver inventory decreased by 0.28% week - on - week [8]. - **Net Positions of Futures Companies**: Among the top 10 net - long positions of Shanghai silver futures companies at the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the total net - long position of the top 5 increased by 11872, and that of the top 10 increased by 10600. Among the top 10 net - short positions, the total net - short position of the top 5 increased by 1568, and that of the top 10 increased by 2299 [9]. Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.50%, down 0.25 from the previous level; the Fed's total assets are $67103.64 billion, down 0.00% week - on - week [10]. - **Inflation and Yield Data**: The 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.57, up 4.05% week - on - week; the US dollar index is 97.55, up 0.76% week - on - week; the US Treasury yield spread (3 - month to 10 - year) is 0.52, down 20.29% week - on - week [10]. - **Other Key Indicators**: The US - EU yield spread (10 - year bond yield) is 1.83, up 100.00% compared to the previous value; the US - China yield spread (10 - year bond yield) is 3.27, up 5.03% compared to the previous value [12]. - **Central Bank Gold Reserves**: China's central bank gold reserves are 2298.55 tons, up 0.18% compared to the previous value; the US's are 8133.46 tons, unchanged; the world's total is 36250.15 tons, unchanged [12][13]. - **Risk - related Indexes**: The geopolitical risk index is 132.88, up 23.60% week - on - week; the VIX index is 17.32, down 2.64% from the previous day but up 2.91% week - on - week [13]. - **Commodity - related Indexes**: The CRB commodity index is 299.28, down 0.22% from the previous day but up 1.09% week - on - week; the offshore RMB exchange rate is 7.1729, up 0.15% week - on - week [13]. Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations Based on the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of different interest - rate ranges at each Fed meeting from July 2025 to December 2026 is provided. For example, at the July 30, 2025 meeting, the probability of the interest rate being in the 250 - 275 range is 25.3%, and in the 275 - 300 range is 74.7% [14].