the state atiowers® LONS 6 3 11 8 0 图 18 @ 昨夜国际贵金属市场上演惊险"过山车"：黄金与白银价格在冲破历史高位后迅速大幅回调。分析师指出，本轮"急涨急跌"是全球宏观叙事激烈博弈的直接结 果。 其深层驱动力在于"去美元化"趋势下，投资者对美元信用的疑虑促使资金涌向黄金白银等"硬通货"。同时，地缘政治风险与对美联储政策的复杂预期，共同 推升了市场的不确定性与投机情绪。白银因其在光伏、人工智能等关键工业领域不可替代的需求，叠加避险属性，波动尤为剧烈。 市场狂热已引发警示，监管机构与银行已采取措施提示风险。专家认为，长期支撑因素依然坚固，但短期技术性回调压力巨大。 wiri JF传奇: 黑檀镶嵌鲍鱼贝、蓝松石、银线、玫瑰金 and of the same of the same and in a mo || | 在这一宏观叙事驱动的波动新时代，JFLOWERS所代表的高级珠宝展现出更深层的"保值"内涵：它以黄金与顶级宝石为资产锚点，以独创设计与精湛工艺 注入艺术溢价，更以承载的情感与纪念意义构筑无价护城河。这种融合了硬核资产、永恒美学与精神寄托的价值，使其成为穿越经济周期、抵 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European economy is at a new starting point of moderate recovery intertwined with multiple challenges as it enters 2026, with inflation gradually retreating to target levels and economic growth showing some resilience, despite ongoing trade frictions and geopolitical risks [1] Economic Growth Outlook - The European economy is expected to show moderate growth in 2025, with the Eurozone GDP growth projected at approximately 1.3% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026, while the overall EU growth rate is anticipated to remain at 1.4% for both years [1][2] - The EU's economic performance is showing signs of improvement compared to the previous three years characterized by high prices, high interest rates, high debt, and low growth [1][3] Inflation and Consumer Spending - Inflation in the Eurozone is showing signs of easing, with the harmonized consumer price index (HICP) rising by 1.9% year-on-year in December 2025, down from 2.1% in November [2] - The EU Commission forecasts a decline in the overall inflation rate from 2.4% in 2024 to 2.1% in 2025, with the European Central Bank expecting it to drop to 1.9% in 2026 [2] Structural Challenges - The EU faces significant structural challenges, including high debt levels, with the debt-to-GDP ratio expected to rise from 84.5% in 2024 to 85% in 2027, and the Eurozone's ratio projected to increase from approximately 88% to 90.4% [6] - Economic divergence among EU member states is evident, with Eastern and Southern countries like Poland and Spain showing strong growth, while core economies like Germany and France remain relatively weak [6] Trade and Geopolitical Risks - Trade barriers have reached historical highs, with increased average tariffs on EU exports to the US, which may further suppress economic growth [5] - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly related to the Ukraine crisis and US-EU trade disagreements, continue to pose risks to the economic recovery [5][6] Policy Measures and Future Prospects - The EU's recovery fund of €750 billion and various policy tools are expected to support public investment and growth in green and digital sectors [8] - Despite positive factors, short-term challenges such as tariff risks, inflation pressures, and high debt levels are likely to persist, potentially leading to a slight decline in economic growth in 2026 compared to 2025 [8]

原油日报 2026 年 1 月 27 日 原油现货市场日报 | 极端天气 | 美国大部分地区遭遇严寒天气，提振供暖需求并中断供应，推动该国天 | | --- | --- | | | 然气价格延续惊人涨势，午间飙升 40%。 | | | 周末席卷美国的大规模冬季风暴严重冲击油气生产商，以及将原材料加 | | | 工成汽油至塑料等各种产品的工业工厂 | | 贸易物流 | 印度石油公司高管周二表示，在减少俄罗斯原油进口后，这家印度最大 | | | 炼油企业已承诺从四月起的新财年增加巴西原油采购量。 | | | 一船石脑油已抵达委内瑞拉海岸，这是自华盛顿方面扣押该国领导人尼 | | | 古拉斯·马杜罗以来首批运抵的货物，也是重振这个南美国家原油生产 | | | 的关键一步。 | | | 知情人士透露，哈萨克斯坦卡拉恰甘纳克油田运营方、西方能源巨头已 | | | 在国际仲裁案中败诉，需向该国政府赔偿高达 40 亿美元。 | | | 欧佩克+代表们表示，在应对全球供应过剩和地缘政治风险浪潮之际， | | | 该组织周日开会时预计将坚持下月维持石油产量稳定的计划。 | | | 国际与当地企业高管及律师表示，委内瑞拉拟议的石 ...

Group 1: Precious Metals Surge - The global silver market has experienced an "epic" short squeeze, with the main silver contract in Shanghai soaring by 14% on January 26, reaching over 30 yuan per gram, while gold surpassed 1150 yuan per gram, both hitting historical highs [1][4] - Since the beginning of 2026, the A-share precious metals sector has risen by 69.8%, significantly outperforming other sectors, while the non-ferrous metals sector has increased by 30.85% [1][3] - In the first 17 trading days of the year, the gold stock ETF (517400) rose by 38.06%, and the mining ETF (561330) increased by 26.89% [1] Group 2: Underlying Logic of Precious Metals Rally - The surge in precious metals is driven by heightened international geopolitical tensions, particularly actions taken by the Trump administration, including military actions and withdrawal from international organizations [4][6] - The ongoing geopolitical instability has led to increased global demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, with many countries significantly increasing their gold purchases since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict [6][7] - Countries are planning to repatriate gold reserves from the U.S. due to concerns over geopolitical safety, with Germany and several African nations planning to return over 400 tons of gold [7][10] Group 3: Super Cycle in Non-Ferrous Metals - The non-ferrous metals sector has also seen significant price increases, with the mining ETF (561330) showing a 106.11% rise in 2025, making it the top performer among all non-ferrous ETFs [16] - Prices of various non-ferrous metals, including tin, nickel, and lithium, have shown substantial weekly increases, indicating strong demand and supply constraints [18][19] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions have made non-ferrous resources strategic assets, leading to increased control and demand for these materials globally [20][21] Group 4: Institutional Outlook - Major investment banks are bullish on gold prices, with Goldman Sachs raising its 12-month gold price target from $4800 to $5500, citing geopolitical risks and the ongoing demand from central banks [23] - Morgan Stanley has also increased its gold price forecast for the end of 2026 from $4600 to $5300, emphasizing the beginning of a global reserve asset restructuring [23] - The demand for non-ferrous metals is expected to grow due to macroeconomic factors and industry-specific needs, with institutions favoring copper, aluminum, cobalt, and rare earths as key investment areas [23][26]

证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 伊朗地缘"灰犀牛"：哪些价格受影响？ 主要观点 伊朗骚乱似有平息，但"灰犀牛"的地缘风险仍存。本篇报告主要概述伊朗的 基本经济国情，侧重自然资源、优势产业和出口结构。 ❖ 一、伊朗近期发生了什么？ 经济困境引发各地抗议，逐步升级为伊朗全国大规模骚乱，伤亡人数是过往二 十余年动荡之最。去年 11 月开始，伊朗多地因物价上涨、货币贬值等问题发 生抗议，随后扩散至全境并出现暴力骚乱和大规模伤亡，期间全面断网 8 天。 1 月下旬局势趋于缓和。1 月 21 日伊朗官方称近期骚乱事件导致 3117 人死亡。 地缘冲突风险仍存。1 月 22 日特朗普表示美国"大型舰队"正驶向伊朗周边。 从经济地理位置看，伊朗对霍尔木兹海峡具有强大控制力。霍尔木兹海峡是全 球能源贸易的咽喉要道，流经该海峡的石油和其他液体燃料贸易量约占全球消 费量约 20%，占全球海运贸易量约 27%，流经该海峡的 LNG 贸易量约占全球 LNG 贸易量的 20%，约占全球天然气贸易量的 9%。 ❖ 二、伊朗的主要自然资源 1、石油：全球探明原油储量第三，目前日产量约 320 万桶/日，出口量约 180 万桶/日。伊朗 ...

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market has experienced a historic surge, with silver and gold prices reaching all-time highs due to geopolitical tensions and increased demand from central banks and investors [2][4][11]. Group 1: Precious Metals Performance - As of January 26, 2026, the main silver contract in Shanghai surged by 14%, surpassing 30 yuan per gram, while gold reached 1150 yuan per gram, marking significant increases [2]. - The A-share precious metals sector has risen by 69.8% year-to-date, outperforming all other sectors, while the non-ferrous metals sector increased by 30.85% [2]. - Year-to-date, the Gold Stock ETF (517400) has risen by 38.06%, and the Mining ETF (561330) has increased by 26.89% [2]. Group 2: Underlying Drivers of Precious Metals Surge - The surge in precious metals is driven by escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly actions taken by the Trump administration, including military interventions and withdrawal from international organizations [6][10]. - The ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the geopolitical climate have led to increased global demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, with many countries significantly increasing their gold reserves [11][12]. - A notable trend is the repatriation of gold reserves by various countries, including Germany and several African nations, driven by concerns over the safety of gold stored in the U.S. [12]. Group 3: De-dollarization and Its Impact - The trend of de-dollarization is gaining momentum, with Denmark's decision to sell U.S. Treasury bonds signaling a potential shift among other central banks towards buying gold instead [13]. - The share of U.S. Treasury bonds in global central bank reserves has fallen below 25%, while gold's share has risen to 28.9%, indicating a shift in reserve asset preferences [16]. - A recent survey by the World Gold Council revealed that 95% of central banks plan to increase their gold holdings in 2026, the highest proportion in recent years [17]. Group 4: Silver Market Dynamics - The silver market is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, exacerbated by export controls from major silver-producing countries, leading to a significant delivery shortfall on the COMEX [20][21]. - As of late January 2026, the deliverable silver inventory on COMEX was only 29% of total inventory, with a delivery gap exceeding 65% [20]. Group 5: Non-Ferrous Metals Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector has also seen substantial growth, with the Mining ETF (561330) recording a 106.11% increase in 2025, making it the top-performing sector [24]. - Prices for various non-ferrous metals, including tin, nickel, and lithium, have shown significant weekly increases, reflecting strong demand [25]. - The ongoing geopolitical tensions have made non-ferrous resources strategic assets, leading to increased control and investment in these sectors by various countries [27]. Group 6: Institutional Outlook - Major investment banks are bullish on gold and non-ferrous metals, with Goldman Sachs raising its 12-month gold price target from $4800 to $5500, citing geopolitical risks and de-dollarization as key drivers [31]. - Morgan Stanley and Bank of America have also adjusted their gold price forecasts upward, indicating a consensus among institutions regarding the bullish outlook for precious metals [31]. - The strong inflow of funds into gold and mining ETFs further supports the positive sentiment in these sectors, with significant net inflows recorded in early 2026 [32].

央行疯狂囤黄金是为了面对全球地缘格局的动荡与主要货币信用的不确定性，全球央行正以前所未有的速度和规模增加黄金储备。这一行动背后，是多重战 略考量的结果。 首先，黄金作为无主权信用风险的"硬资产"，是应对地缘政治风险和潜在金融制裁的关键"压舱石"。其次，在主要经济体债务持续攀升、高通胀风险未消的 背景下，黄金被视为对冲美元等法定货币贬值、实现外汇储备多元化的核心工具。最后，这反映了全球货币体系正在经历深刻的信任重构，各国正通过增持 黄金来增强本国金融体系的韧性与战略自主性。 因此，央行"囤金"并非短期投机，而是为应对一个更加复杂和多变的全球宏观环境所做的长期战略准备。 摘要央行疯狂囤黄金是为了面对全球地缘格局的动荡与主要货币信用的不确定性，全球央行正以前所未有的速度和规模增加黄金储备。这一行动背后，是多 重战略考量的结果。 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The current market sentiment emphasizes the need for a strategic approach that respects market dynamics while maintaining a clear focus on trading signals and risk management [1] - The gold market is experiencing strong upward momentum, with spot gold rebounding to $5094.54 per ounce, marking a nearly 1.7% increase and maintaining a positive trend for seven consecutive trading days [2] - The geopolitical landscape, particularly the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and U.S. trade policy uncertainties, is driving increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold [3] Group 2: Technical Analysis - Gold is currently in a defined short-term upward channel, with support at approximately $4971.48 and resistance at $5156.89 [4] - Technical indicators suggest a potential short-term overbought condition, with the RSI at 70.84, indicating that bullish momentum may face some pressure [4] - The overall technical outlook for gold remains bullish, with a focus on potential price movements around key resistance and support levels [6] Group 3: Oil Market Insights - West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices are experiencing a pullback, trading around $60.50 per barrel, following a previous day’s decline of over 0.50% [7] - Supply uncertainties, particularly due to winter storms affecting U.S. production, are providing some support for oil prices despite the recent technical corrections [7] - The oil market is currently balancing between fundamental support and expectations of supply recovery, with a cautious outlook on sustained tight supply conditions [8]

摩根士丹利认为，在美元指数下行、实物黄金需求保持稳定以及地缘政治风险高企的多重背景下，黄金 涨势仍未结束。该行重申2026年下半年5700美元/盎司的看涨目标，当前水平仍有约14%的上涨空间。 摩根士丹利发布报告称，黄金价格已突破该行此前对2026年下半年4750美元/盎司的预测，但金价尚未 见顶，地缘政治风险、央行策略转变以及ETF买盘共同构成支撑。该行表示，看涨情景下，2026年下半 年黄金目标价为5700美元/盎司。 摩根士丹利指出，央行购金行为在2022年发生结构性转变，黄金正成为储备资产中美元的主要挑战者， 价值与持有量同步增长。该行原本认为央行多将黄金持有量占储备的比例设定为目标，金价上涨时购金 量会随之减少，但波兰央行近期调整策略，放弃此前黄金占储备30%的目标，设定700吨的绝对持有量 目标，当前其黄金持有量为550吨，意味着即便金价处于高位，仍将持续增配黄金。若其他央行效仿该 模式，价格在购金决策中的权重将下降，支撑全球购金量维持高位。 2025年12月初以来，地缘政治风险指数持续攀升，推动黄金资金流入。世界黄金协会数据显示，地缘政 治风险指数每上升100点，黄金价格往往上涨2.5%。ETF ...

产业链供需及库存变化分析 美国在中东集结军力，地缘溢价提升 一、日度市场总结 供给端 ：乌克兰袭击俄罗斯炼油厂（克拉斯诺达尔地区）可能加剧地缘政 治风险，潜在减少俄罗斯成品油供应；哈萨克斯坦Tengiz油田准备恢复石 油产量，预计增加供应；OPEC+代表预计维持当前产量稳定（应对全球供应 过剩和地缘风险），减少政策不确定性；道达尔能源签署协议增加特许权 产量（日均约37万桶油当量），利比亚协议延长至2050年，可能提升长期 供应；俄罗斯能源部提议解除汽油出口禁令，潜在增加成品油出口；英国 石油公司对委内瑞拉跨境机遇感兴趣，暗示供应潜力。 原油期货市场数据变动分析 需求端 ：需求端存在分化迹象。三井住友银行航空资本CEO表示旅行需求 基本面强劲，支撑航空燃料油需求；但美国航班取消（近12000个航班，20 多个机场关闭）可能短期抑制成品油需求；燃料油价格上涨（日内涨幅超 5%）反映成品油需求增加。 主力合约与基差 ：2026-01-26，SC原油期货价格从441.9元/桶升至457.3 元/桶，涨幅3.48%，显著上扬；WTI原油期货价格维持在61.28美元/桶，无 变化；Brent原油期货价格维持在65.44 ...