各位老铁，我是帮主郑重。今儿美联储主席鲍威尔又出来"吹风"了，说绝大多数委员都觉得今年晚些时候会降息。这事儿对咱们中长线投资有啥影响？咱 们好好唠唠。 第三，中长线布局策略。既然美联储大概率降息，咱们可以提前埋伏三个方向：一是高股息资产，比如公用事业和消费龙头，降息周期里这类股票能提 供稳定收益；二是成长股，尤其是科技和医疗，低利率环境下它们的估值弹性更大；三是黄金，历史数据显示，降息预期升温时黄金通常会走牛。但要 避开那些对利率敏感的行业，比如房地产，现在美国房贷利率已经很高，降息可能只是杯水车薪。 先得把这事儿的背景搞清楚。鲍威尔在葡萄牙辛特拉开会的时候，被问到如果没有特朗普的关税政策，美联储是不是早就降息了。他直接承认："没错， 如果不是关税导致通胀预测大幅上升，我们2025年就已经开始降息，现在政策会更宽松。"这就像你本来打算给孩子买玩具，结果突然要交一笔意外税 费，只能先把玩具钱攥在手里。特朗普4月份搞的"对等关税"，让进口商品成本上升，直接打乱了美联储的节奏。 不过鲍威尔也留了活口，他说"绝大多数委员预计今年晚些时候降息是合适的"。这就像老师虽然没明说考试范围，但暗示重点在某几章。根据6月份的点 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows a mixed trend with different performances across various sectors. In the financial derivatives market, stock index futures show certain resilience, while treasury bond futures are affected by the money - market conditions. Precious metals continue to rebound due to international trade and economic data. In the commodity futures market, different metals and agricultural products have their own supply - demand and price trends, and the investment strategies vary accordingly [2][6][8]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: On Monday, the A - share market showed a sector rotation. The red - chip sector rebounded, while the TMT sector pulled back. The four major stock index futures contracts had different price movements, and the basis spread widened. The macro situation is improving, but investors should be cautious about chasing high prices. They can lightly sell MO options with an execution price of 5900 in August - September to collect premiums [2][3][5]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: After the cross - month period, the money - market rate dropped significantly, and treasury bond futures generally rebounded. However, they lack the momentum to break through the previous high. The focus is on whether the money - market rate can further decline, the subsequent fundamental situation, and the central bank's bond trading announcements. Short - term unilateral strategies suggest appropriate allocation of long positions on dips and taking profits near the previous high [6][7]. Precious Metals - Gold continues its upward trend due to the US tariff threat and the decline of the US dollar index. The US economic data shows the impact of tariffs on the manufacturing industry, and the labor supply is tightening. The euro - zone inflation rate is stable. The long - term upward trend of gold remains unchanged, but there are short - term uncertainties. Silver is affected by gold and has a short - term range - bound trend [8][9][12]. Container Shipping Futures (EC) - The spot prices of major shipping companies are provided, and the container shipping index shows different trends in the European and US routes. The futures market rose yesterday, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1800 - 2000 points. The actual price in August is not likely to drop significantly, and the subsequent price center will move up [13][14]. Commodity Futures Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The COMEX - LME spread has widened again, and high copper prices have suppressed downstream purchases. The supply of copper concentrate is limited, and the demand has some resilience, but there are also potential pressures. The copper price is expected to be supported in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade in the range of 79000 - 81000 [15][17][19]. - **Alumina**: The supply of alumina is in a state of slight surplus, and the price is expected to be weak in the medium term. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 2750 - 3100, and investors can consider short - selling on rallies [19][20][21]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate widely at a high level. The macro environment and low inventory support the price, but the consumption off - season restricts its upward space. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 20000 - 20800 [22][23][24]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The market of aluminum alloy shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to be weak and fluctuate. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 19200 - 20000 [24][25][26]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price rebounds due to the weakening of the US dollar, but the downstream purchasing willingness is low. The supply of zinc ore is loose, the demand is weakening, and the inventory provides some support. The long - term strategy is to short on rallies, and the main contract is expected to trade in the range of 21500 - 22500 [27][28][30]. - **Tin**: The tin price is in a high - level range - bound state. The supply is still tight, and the demand is expected to be weak. The short - term strategy is to be bullish on dips and short on rallies based on inventory and import data [30][31][33]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price is in a narrow - range oscillation. The supply is at a relatively high level, and the demand is stable but with limited growth. The inventory still exerts pressure on the price. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 116000 - 124000 [33][34][35]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless - steel price is expected to be weak and fluctuate. The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the cost support is weakening. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 12300 - 13000 [36][37][38]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate futures show a wide - range oscillation. The supply is sufficient, the demand is stable but with limited growth, and the inventory is at a high level. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 58000 - 64000 [39][40][42]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The price of steel is slightly stable due to the rumor of production restrictions in Tangshan. The supply is at a high level but shows a slight decline, and the demand is in the off - season with a downward trend. The price of steel is affected by cost and demand expectations. Short - selling operations or selling out - of - the - money call options can be considered [42][43][44]. - **Iron Ore**: The 09 contract of iron ore may turn weak. The global shipment volume has decreased, the demand is affected by the off - season and the production - restriction policy in Tangshan. Short - selling on rallies is recommended, with the range of 690 - 720 [45][46][47]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot price of coking coal is strong, and the futures price is oscillating. The supply is expected to increase, the demand has some resilience, and the inventory is at a medium level. Unilateral short - selling of the 2601 contract of coke for hedging is recommended, and waiting for a stable trend to go long on the 2509 contract of coking coal [48][50][51]. - **Coke**: The price of coke is close to the bottom. The fourth - round price cut has been implemented, the supply is expected to increase, and the demand will slightly decline. The inventory is at a medium level. Unilateral short - selling of the 2601 contract of coke for hedging is recommended, and waiting for a stable trend to go long on the 2509 contract of coke [52][54][55]. Agricultural Products - **Meal Products**: The US soybean market is in a bottom - grinding state, and the support at the bottom is strengthening. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are rising, and the market is waiting for the determination of the demand trend. Short - term bottom - grinding and long - position opportunities on dips can be focused on [56][57][59]. - **Pigs**: The spot price of pigs is oscillating strongly, but the futures price is under pressure due to profit - taking. The secondary fattening inventory is increasing, and the market sentiment is expected to be strong in the short term, but the 09 contract is under pressure [60][61][62]. - **Corn**: The spot price of corn is stable, and the import auction has a premium, which supports the futures price. The supply is tight in the long term, and the demand is gradually increasing. The overall trend is upward, but the pace is slow [63][64].

商 品 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 观 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 2025年7月2日 研究所晨会观点精萃 贾利军 宏观金融：贸易协议面临不确定性，避险情绪有所升温 【宏观】 海外方面，鲍威尔重申美联储在降息前需等待更多数据，未排除 7 月行 动可能性，表态略微偏鸽，但数据显示劳动力市场需求的增长好于预期，美元指 数下跌后反弹；此外，虽然美国总统称美国或与印度达成贸易协议，但威胁对日 本征收更高关税，市场权衡了美国贸易协议的不确定性和美国税收法案的情况， 全球风险偏好有所降温。国内方面，中国 6 月份制造业 PMI 为 49.7%，比上月上 升 0.2 个百分点，经济增长有所加快；政策方面，国内消费政策刺激加强，短期 有助于提振国内风险偏好；且短期国外市场回暖以及人民币汇率升值，国内市场 情绪回暖，国内风险有所升温。资产上：股指短期震荡反弹，短期谨慎做多。国 债短期高位震荡，谨慎观望。商品板块来看，黑色短期低位震荡反弹，短期谨慎 做多；有色短期震荡偏强，短期谨慎做多；能化短期震荡，谨慎观望；贵金属短 期高位震荡，谨慎做多。 冯冰 【股指】 在中船系、生物医药以及半导体等板块的支撑下，国 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cut in July has become a focal point for the market, with Chairman Powell indicating that decisions will be data-driven and not ruled out for any meeting [1][3] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Position - Powell's comments suggest a shift from previous indications of considering rate cuts in the fall, with a current probability of a 25 basis point cut in July rising to about 25% from under 20% a week prior [1] - Market expectations indicate that investors believe the Fed will initiate a rate cut cycle by the end of September, with a total of two cuts amounting to 50 basis points by year-end [1][4] Group 2: Inflation and Economic Indicators - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose 2.7% year-over-year, above the previous value and market expectations, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [4] - Real consumer spending showed a decline of 0.1% month-over-month, marking the first decrease since December 2024, reflecting weakening consumer momentum [4] - Personal income fell by 0.4% month-over-month, the largest single-month decline since March 2023, indicating increased pressure on income [4] Group 3: Global Economic Uncertainty - Central bank leaders, including Powell, expressed concerns over unprecedented global policy uncertainty, with inflation risks being driven by both downward pressures from commodity prices and upward pressures from geopolitical and fiscal uncertainties [3] - The discussion highlighted a cautious outlook on short-term inflation paths among major central bank officials, with differing views on the pace and priority of policy adjustments [3] Group 4: Diverging Opinions within the Fed - There is a growing divergence within the Fed regarding the timing of rate cuts, with some officials suggesting earlier action if inflation remains controlled, while others express caution due to economic slowdown concerns [5][4] - The June FOMC dot plot revealed that among 19 members, opinions varied significantly on the likelihood of rate cuts in 2025, with some expecting no cuts and others anticipating multiple cuts [4]

Core Viewpoint - The current economic conditions in the Eurozone do not warrant further monetary easing, as the economy is gradually recovering and inflation is near target levels [1][3]. Economic Policy - The European Central Bank (ECB) can maintain stable borrowing costs during its upcoming meeting, as there have been eight rate cuts since June 2024 and inflation is "basically at target" [1]. - ECB officials believe that the inflation rate will stabilize around the 2% target in the medium term after dipping below this level in 2026 [3]. Trade Relations - The ECB is closely monitoring the evolving trade relationship between the EU and the US, particularly the impact of tariffs set by the Trump administration on the EU economy [3]. - There is uncertainty regarding the specific situation in September, but officials expect to gain clearer insights into trade and fiscal plans for better assessments [3]. Inflation Risks - Risks affecting the inflation outlook, such as potential supply chain disruptions, fiscal spending, and energy price fluctuations, are considered to be in a balanced state [3]. - The strong euro, which has appreciated by 14% against the dollar since the beginning of the year, may complicate policy decisions for the ECB [3][4]. Currency Impact - A strong euro can lower import prices and reduce the competitiveness of exports, both of which can suppress inflation [4]. - Despite the rapid appreciation of the euro, ECB officials do not express significant concern, noting that the current exchange rate remains within historical ranges [4].

Group 1 - The central theme of the 2025 European Central Bank Forum is "Adapting to Change: Macroeconomic Transformation and Policy Responses," focusing on the impact of U.S. trade conflicts on the global economy [1] - ECB President Lagarde emphasized that uncertainty will continue to be a key characteristic of the global economy, potentially leading to increased inflation volatility [3] - A report from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) indicated that U.S. tariffs have pushed economic uncertainty to "crisis-levels," with risks to consumer prices, public finances, and the financial system [3] Group 2 - Despite similar geopolitical and trade challenges, central bank leaders have differing policy stances, with the ECB considering multiple rate cuts while the Fed maintains its current rate range [4] - The eurozone's inflation rate slightly increased to 2% in June, aligning with the ECB's inflation target, indicating the completion of the previous monetary policy intervention cycle [5] - Lagarde is positioned to strengthen the euro's status amid the dollar's decline, aiming to establish the euro as a stable currency during uncertain times [5] Group 3 - During a panel discussion, Fed Chair Powell noted that U.S. inflation is performing as expected, but tariff impacts may appear in future data, suggesting a cautious approach to monetary policy [6] - Lagarde stated that the ECB is prepared to respond to complex economic situations but refrained from committing to future interest rate directions [6] - The Bank of England's Bailey highlighted the negative impact of fragmentation on global economic activity, advocating for a return to multilateral order [6]

在与美联储主席鲍威尔和欧洲央行行长拉加德共同出席的一个小组讨论中，植田和男表示，他希望避免 就日本政府正在进行的贸易谈判发表直接评论。 植田和男明确区分了整体通胀与基础通胀的差异。他指出当前整体通胀率高于2%，而基础通胀率低于 2%。他为自己的任期设定了清晰的目标，当被问及到2028年4月任期结束前的计划时，他表示： 我希望在我离任时，两者都能稳定在2%的水平。 据媒体报道，约三分之一的日本央行观察人士预计下一次加息将在明年1月，另有30%的人预计将在今 年10月。普遍共识是，在7月31日的下一次政策会议上，央行将维持其现有政策设定不变。 贸易政策增添不确定性 外部风险，特别是来自美国的贸易政策，是植田和男保持谨慎的另一个关键因素。 日本央行行长强化了等待更多数据再做货币政策判断的立场，暗示他并不急于提高借贷成本。 7月1日，据媒体报道，日本央行行长植田和男在葡萄牙辛特拉举行的欧洲央行年度论坛上指出，央行正 在密切关注基础通胀的强度、美国关税政策的潜在影响，以及预计将逐步回落的食品通胀。植田和男表 示： 我们需要更多通胀数据来做决定。 尽管日本5月份关键通胀指标创下两年新高，且连续三年多保持在或高于央行目标水 ...

7月1日周二，ISM公布的数据显示，由于订单和就业萎缩加剧，美国6月ISM制造业连续四个月萎缩，美国制造业低迷的局面持续。与此同时，用于衡量原 材料支付价格的指标显示出通胀略有加速的迹象。 美国6月ISM制造业PMI指数为49，预期为48.8，前值为48.5。50为荣枯分界线。 重要分项指数方面： 新订单指数46.4，预期48.1，前值47.6。订单量创下三个月来的最大降幅，并已连续五个月减少，可能反映出关税上升以及整体美国经济放缓。 制造业产出在经历三个月收缩后，6月重新进入扩张区间。 就业指数45，降至三个月低点，预期47.1，前值46.8。就业指数已连续五个月处于收缩区间。 物价支付指数69.7，接近2022年6月以来的最高水平，预期69.5，前值69.4。原材料成本上升仍是制造商面临的问题。 订单积压指数下降2.8个点，为一年来的最大跌幅，至44.3。订单积压指数已连续33个月陷入收缩，创下历史纪录。 进口和出口指标仍处于收缩状态，但下降速度有所放缓。进口指数在上月大跌后在6月跳涨7.5点，创五年来最大单月涨幅。 媒体分析称，需求疲软和订单积压减少，部分解释了制造业就业加速下降的原因。ISM制造业商业 ...

"新美联储通讯社"Nick Timiraos认为，美联储主席鲍威尔在7月1日讲话中回避了一个关于7月份的尖锐 问题，在距离召开FOMC货币政策会议还有四周之际，他拒绝排除任何可能性。他的整体言论几乎没有 暗示任何为本月降息做准备的努力。 最近，由于关税上调已被暂停，且早期（是否为时过早？）通胀数据尚未显示出显著效果，鲍威尔暗 示，如果通胀没有人们担心的那么严重，降息可能会恢复。 对7月份的关注（至少在今天）可能掩盖了最近几周他和其他人的言论中更微妙的转变。在美国总统特 朗普于4月2日发布关税公告后不久，人们就推测物价上涨幅度可能非常大，以至于需要有证据表明劳动 力市场出现实质性疲软才能降息。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell maintains flexibility regarding interest rate decisions, indicating a shift in factors influencing potential rate cuts [1] Group 1 - Powell avoided a direct question about the possibility of a rate cut in July, suggesting that it is inappropriate to overly focus on this month's decision [1] - Recent comments from Powell and others indicate a subtle change in tone, moving away from an immediate need for rate cuts [1] - Speculation arose that significant price increases post-tariff removal might necessitate a substantial weakening in the labor market before considering rate cuts [1] Group 2 - The recent pause on tariffs and early inflation readings have not shown meaningful impacts, leading Powell to suggest that if inflation concerns are not severe, rate cuts may be reconsidered [1]