Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy faces significant risks of inflation and recession due to President Trump's tariff policies, as highlighted by both Federal Reserve officials and JPMorgan [1][3][6]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Insights - A senior official from the Federal Reserve indicated that Trump's tariff policies are increasing the risk of inflation and economic recession in the U.S. [1] - The Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President, Esther George, noted that tariffs disrupt global markets and consumer confidence, leading to heightened inflation risks and downward pressure on employment and economic growth [1]. - The minutes from the Federal Reserve's recent meeting revealed concerns among participants about the potential impact of tariffs exceeding industry expectations, with nearly all attendees acknowledging upward inflation risks and downward pressures on employment and economic growth [3]. Group 2: JPMorgan's Economic Outlook - JPMorgan has warned that the likelihood of a U.S. recession could be as high as 60%, attributing this to ongoing policy confusion in trade and domestic fiscal matters, which negatively impacts stock markets and consumer confidence [6]. - JPMorgan's CEO, Jamie Dimon, stated that Trump's tariff policies are disrupting financial markets, potentially leading the U.S. economy into recession [6].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market experienced a significant decline following a brief surge, highlighting the market's sensitivity to policy changes and trade uncertainties, leading investors to reassess their risk exposure [1][5]. Market Performance - On Thursday, the S&P 500 index fell by 3.46% to 5268.05 points, the Nasdaq Composite dropped 4.31% to 16387.31 points, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 2.5%, closing at 39593.66 points [1]. - Major tech stocks led the decline, with Tesla down 7.3%, Meta Platforms nearly 7%, Nvidia around 6%, and Apple down 4.2% [1]. Investor Sentiment - Following a brief period of optimism due to a temporary tariff delay, investor sentiment quickly shifted as uncertainties surrounding tariff policies resurfaced [5]. - The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that the proportion of neutral investors fell to 12.5%, the lowest since the 2009 financial crisis, while bearish sentiment remained high at 58.9% [5]. Tariff Policy Impact - Current U.S. tariffs include a 25% tariff on aluminum and automobiles from Canada and Mexico, and a 10% tariff on all other imports, with a temporary suspension for some countries [6]. - Morgan Stanley's chief U.S. economist noted that while the delay in tariffs may improve short-term sentiment, it does not reduce overall uncertainty, as current tariff levels remain historically high [6]. Inflation Concerns - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March showed a year-over-year increase of 2.4%, below the expected 2.6%, while the core CPI rose 2.8%, indicating a second consecutive month of decline [7][8]. - Discrepancies in inflation views between the White House and the Federal Reserve have emerged, with concerns about the long-term impact of tariffs on inflation and economic growth [9]. Bond Market Signals - The U.S. bond market has shown signs of volatility, with the 10-year Treasury yield surpassing 4.51% and the 30-year yield exceeding 5.0%, both exceeding market expectations [11]. - Analysts warn that high tariffs could severely impact global economic growth, potentially leading to a recession and increased volatility in U.S. bonds [13]. Global Market Reactions - Following the U.S. market's downturn, Asian markets rebounded significantly, with the Nikkei 225 index rising 9.13% and the Korean Composite Index increasing by 6.6% [14]. - Analysts express mixed views on whether this rebound indicates a buying opportunity, with some cautioning against increasing risk exposure amid ongoing tariff uncertainties [16].

美东时间4月2日下午，美国总统特朗普正式宣布酝酿已久的关税新政，核心内容包括对所有国家征收10% 的"基准关税"，以及对部分贸易伙伴征收更高的"个性化对等关税"，即任何一个国家对美国征收多少关 税，美国将以同等力度回敬。 全球股市遭抛售 新政一出，全球资本市场迅速反应，美股首当其冲。4月3日（周四）S&P 500大跌4.84%，创下自2020年 6月11日以来单日最差表现，随后在4月4日（周五）又下跌5.97%，是自2020年3月16日新冠疫情以来表 现最差的交易日。该指数两日跌幅达到10%。 高盛顶级交易员John Flood在周日的客户简报中表示，近期市场可能尚未见底，全球关税升级对GDP增 长、企业盈利和通胀的负面影响刚刚开始显现，市场波动性将持续，指数层面上可能尚未见到近期/中期 低点。不过他表示，高盛数据显示，当市场情绪降至目前极低水平时，未来两周S&P 500有70%概率实现 正回报。 亚太市场也未能幸免。清明节假期过后，恒生指数周一收报19828点，全日跌3021点，跌幅13.2%，创下 自1997年10月28日以来的单日跌幅纪录。而上证指数当日在有"国家队"的支持下，仍收跌7.34%，失守 3 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant impact of the new tariff policy announced by President Trump, which includes a 10% baseline tariff on all countries and higher personalized tariffs on specific trade partners, aiming to reduce the U.S. trade deficit and reshape the global economic order [1][3]. Tariff Policy Details - The new tariff policy includes a 10% baseline tariff effective from April 5, 2023, and personalized tariffs that will take effect on April 9, 2023. Countries like China will face a 34% tariff, while others such as the EU, Vietnam, and Japan will see tariffs ranging from 20% to 49% [1][3]. - The policy is expected to have far-reaching effects on global trade, potentially increasing inflation and slowing economic growth in the U.S. [3]. Market Reactions - Following the announcement, global markets reacted negatively, with the S&P 500 dropping 4.84% on April 3 and an additional 5.97% on April 4, marking a total decline of 10% over two days [4]. - The Hang Seng Index fell by 13.2%, marking its largest single-day drop since October 1997, while the Shanghai Composite Index dropped 7.34% [5]. Economic Outlook - The risk of a U.S. economic recession has increased, with Goldman Sachs raising the probability of recession within the next 12 months from 35% to 45% and predicting a GDP growth of only 0.5% by Q4 2025 [6]. - Morgan Stanley is even more pessimistic, estimating a 60% chance of recession starting in June 2023 [6]. Expert Opinions - Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Larry Summers criticized the tariff policy as potentially the "largest suicidal policy in U.S. history," highlighting the increased uncertainty and risk of recession [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the impact of Trump's tariff suspension announcement on various sectors including energy, precious metals, and stock indices. It suggests short - term trends and future concerns for each sector, with a focus on how the tariff policy, market sentiment, and economic fundamentals interact to influence prices and investment opportunities [2][3][4]. Summary by Directory I.当日主要新闻关注 - **International News**: The US government will suspend the collection of reciprocal tariffs on dozens of countries for 90 days, with a minimum tariff rate of 10% [6]. - **Domestic News**: The Central Peripheral Work Conference emphasized building a community with a shared future with neighboring countries through strategic trust, development integration, stability maintenance, and increased exchanges [7]. - **Industry News**: In March, the retail sales of passenger cars reached 1.94 million, a year - on - year increase of 14.4% and a month - on - month increase of 40.2%. New energy passenger vehicle retail sales were 991,000, a year - on - year increase of 38% and a month - on - month increase of 45% [8]. II.外盘每日收益情况 - Various international market indices and commodities showed different trends. For example, the S&P 500 rose 9.52%, the European STOXX 50 fell 3.80%, and ICE Brent crude oil rose 6.65% [8]. III.主要品种早盘评论 1) Financial - **Stock Indices**: Trump's 90 - day tariff suspension on non - retaliatory countries led to a surge in US stocks and A50 futures. Chinese stock indices rebounded strongly, with policies from multiple departments boosting market confidence. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish [4][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds generally rose, with the yield of the 10 - year active bond falling to 1.65%. It is recommended to go long while controlling risks, considering factors like the US tariff suspension and China's economic policies [12]. 2) Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Trump's tariff suspension led to a late - session rebound in international oil prices. Short - term oil prices are expected to decline, but attention should be paid to the impact on US sanctions [2][13]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices rose at night. The short - term trend is bullish, considering factors such as production load and inventory [14]. - **Rubber**: The price of rubber continued to decline. The long - term trend is expected to be weak, affected by factors like tariffs and supply - demand [15]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefins showed a weak and volatile trend. The short - term market will be affected by shocks, and attention should be paid to cost and demand [16]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass and soda ash futures showed a bottom - hitting and rebounding trend. The future trend depends on domestic demand [17]. - **PTA**: PTA prices are expected to remain weak due to insufficient cost support and demand [18]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol is under pressure due to factors like inventory and demand [19]. 3) Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver rebounded. Gold is expected to remain strong, with future trends depending on multiple factors [3][20]. - **Copper**: The price of copper may fluctuate widely in the short term, affected by factors such as tariffs and demand [21]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices may also have wide - range short - term fluctuations, with attention on tariffs and other factors [22]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices may be weak and volatile in the short term, considering supply and demand [23]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices may fluctuate in the short term, affected by multiple factors [24]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In March, there was an oversupply of lithium carbonate. The price may decline further if production expectations are not revised [25][26]. 4) Black Metals - **Iron Ore**: The impact of tariffs on iron ore is limited. The short - term trend is expected to be weak and volatile, with attention on steel mill复产 progress [27]. - **Steel**: The impact of tariffs on steel is not direct. The short - term trend is expected to be weak and volatile, with attention on steel mill复产 and demand [28]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The valuation of coking coal and coke may be repaired upwards, with attention on upstream inventory digestion [29]. - **Ferroalloys**: The support for ferroalloys may strengthen, with attention on steel procurement and inventory [30]. 5) Agricultural Products - **Oils and Fats**: Oils and fats were weak at night. The short - term trend is affected by factors such as inventory and oil prices [32]. - **Protein Meals**: The price of far - month soybean meal has support, considering factors such as trade disputes and planting area [33]. 6) Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The short - term trend of the container shipping index to Europe is expected to be weak, with attention on shipping company capacity control and price increases [34].

以下文章来源于橡树资本Oaktree Capital ，作者霍华德·马克斯 橡树资本Oaktree Capital . 橡树资本官方公众号 "如果我们执意以确定性作为行动前提，我们将会陷入无所作为的僵局。" 这是橡树资本联合创始人霍华德·马克斯（Howard Marks）在4月9日发布的备忘录中写下的一句话， 字字千钧。 这是他第三次以《无人知晓》（Nobody Knows）为题，书写对时代剧变的回应。从2008年金融危机 到2020年疫情冲击，再到今天围绕贸易、通胀与全球秩序重新洗牌的重大转折，他一如既往承认自己 无法预测未来，但他更强调，正因为"无人知晓"，我们才更必须在不确定性中做出理性的决策。 备忘录的时代背景，是特朗普政府掀起的新一轮贸易风暴。关税加码、供应链重塑、通胀与滞胀的风险 交织其中，让人不禁联想到2008年的系统性崩盘。 霍华德·马克斯并未替这场局势下定结论，而是用极其清晰的结构提出问题：这场变局的链条中，哪些 是我们可以理解的，一般认知有哪些盲点？ 他指出，哪怕某些政策意图本身合理，比如"重建制造业"、"遏制不公平贸易"，但其带来的二阶、三 阶影响却难以控制，包括全球秩序的撕裂、资本信心 ...

2025 年 4 月 10 日星期四 地址： 电话： 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67070250 上海市浦东新区向城路 288 号 1101A； 021-61101856 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | 铜： | | 17 | | --- | --- | --- | | 锡： | | 18 | | 镍： | | 18 | | 工业硅/多晶硅： | | 18 | | 豆油、豆粕： | | 19 | | 棕榈油： | | 20 | | 菜粕、菜油： | | 20 | | 棉花： | | 21 | | 白糖： | | 22 | | 苹果： | | 23 | | 生猪： | | 23 | | 鸡蛋： | | 24 | | 玉米： | | 25 | | 原木： | | 25 | | 免责声明 | | 27 | 4 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 益率处在相对低位；抛开关税影响，中国经济呈现平稳复苏态势，内需政策有发力空 间，建议保持一定的谨慎。 国债： 上一交易日，国债期货收盘全线上涨，30 年期主力合约涨 0.16%报 120.33 元，10 年期主力合约涨 0.09%报 109.045 元，5 年 ...

关税可能导致GDP增长和投资下降。 美国明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利（2026年FOMC票委）：比预期更严重的经济衰退可能会引发新的 前景。 ...

JPMorgan Chase (JPM 0.91%) Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon is one of the most respected voices on Wall Street. Dimon leads the nation's largest bank by assets, and he successfully steered JPMorgan Chase through the great financial crisis without needing a bailout. The company and Wall Street analysts often refer to the company's "fortress" balance sheet, a nod to Dimon's canny risk management. Dimon is also one of the most vocal leaders in banking, and he's never been hesitant to share his thoughts on w ...

一则信号传来。 据最新消息，在收到来自业界大量负面反馈和反对声音后，特朗普政府正在考虑放宽拟对进入美国港口的中国船只 征收的"停靠费"。有消息人士称，美国政府正在考虑的调整包括推迟实施相关计划和制定新的收费结构，目的是降 低停靠美国港口的船队的总成本负担。 据世界航运理事会的数据，"停靠费"一旦实施，将很快覆盖全球约98%的船队。美国贸易代表办公室此前就"停靠 费"提案举行了听证会，超过300个贸易团体和其他利益相关方提交了反对这些费用的意见和证词。 受美国掀起的"关税风暴"影响，市场对美国通胀重燃以及经济衰退的担忧急剧升温。摩根大通基于市场的衰退指标 仪表板模型显示，聚焦小盘股的罗素2000指数目前正在为经济衰退定价，概率高达令人窒息的79%。当地时间4月8 日，华尔街对冲基金大佬、潘兴广场资本创始人比尔·阿克曼再次呼吁美国总统特朗普暂缓"对等关税"。 考虑放宽 4月9日，环球网援引路透社报道，六名消息人士透露，在收到来自业界大量负面反馈和反对声音后，美国特朗普政 府正在考虑放宽拟对进入美国港口的中国船只征收的"停靠费"。 这项名为"停靠费"的举措迅速引发全球海运界的广泛关注和强烈反对。尽管美方声称此举旨在 ...