贵金属的狂欢盛宴还在演绎。 近来，金银价格蒙眼狂奔，资本市场情绪高涨。 周三，港A黄金及贵金属股早盘冲高，不过随后有所回落。 截至发稿，A股西部黄金涨停，招金黄金涨超5%，港股灵宝黄金涨超4%，中金黄金、招金矿业、紫金 矿业等跟涨。 | 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 | 涨跌额 | 涨跌幅 √ | 总市值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 601069 | 西部黄金 | 26.51 | +2.41 | 10.00% | 241.51亿 | | 000506 | 招金黄金 | 10.32 | +0.51 | 5.20% | 95.87 Z | | 600489 | 中金黄金 | 18.11 | +0.35 | 1.97% | 877.85 Z | | 600547 | 山东黄金 | 36.29 | +0.38 | 1.06% | 1623.41 Z | | 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 | 涨跌额 | 涨跌幅 √ | 总市值 | | 03330 | 灵宝黄金 | 16.320 | +0.720 | 4.62% | 210.03亿 | | 01818 | 招金矿业 | ...

基本面分析： 金十数据中心显示，全球最大黄金上市交易基金(ETF)截至09月02日持仓量为990.56吨，较上日增持12.88吨，上月止净增持24.60吨。 债务危机与政治风险交织，英、德、法多国长期国债收益率攀升至多年高位。阿根廷主权债及汇率暴跌，财政部紧急干预汇市。特朗普将请求最高法 院"快速裁决"全球关税案，警告败诉将带来 "前所未见的震荡"，胜诉则股市会大涨。财长贝森特对最高法院支持关税有信心，同时准备备选方案。与此同 时，特朗普持续施压美联储，侵蚀市场对美联储独立性的信心，加剧市场避险情绪，将金银价格推向创纪录高位。美国8月ISM制造业指数48.7，连续六个 月萎缩，新订单略有回暖，价格波动趋缓，产出下滑。市场押注美联储9月降息25基点的概率超92%，迭加黄金消费旺季，金价连涨六日有望再创新高。周 二，长期收益率上行令英镑和日元等非美货币承压，尽管美元指数六个交易日以来首次收涨，但得益于降息预期升温，地缘政治和贸易摩擦下的弹性避险 需求，周二现货黄金大涨收报于3533.25美元/盎司，日内波动于3470.16至3540.02美元间。投资者聚焦非农数据，以寻找9月份降息幅度线索，若就业疲软 或触发50 ...

行情回顾： 国际黄金周二（9月2日）大幅收涨，开盘价3474.08美元/盎司，最高价3520.38美元/盎司，最低价3470.15美元/ 盎司，收盘价3520.38美元/盎司。 消息面： 美国8月ISM制造业PMI录得48.7，低于市场预期49，前值为48；美国7月营建支出月率录得-0.1%，符合市场预 期，前值为-0.4%；美国8月标普全球制造业PMI终值录得53，低于市场预期53.3，前值为53.3。 供应管理协会（ISM）制造业商业调查委员会主席苏珊·斯宾塞表示，8月份，美国制造业活动收缩速度略有放 缓，新订单增长是制造业PMI上升0.7个百分点的最大因素。然而，由于生产收缩的速度几乎等于新订单的扩张 速度，制造业PMI的增长是名义上的。四个需求指标中有两个有所改善，新订单和新出口订单指数显示出增 长，而客户库存和未完成订单指数的收缩速度略快。 世界黄金协会市场情报经理Krishan Gopaul指出，市场持续不确定性、对美联储独立性的担忧、九月降息预期 重燃、美国滞胀风险再现以及美元普遍走弱，共同强化了黄金的吸引力。地缘政治紧张局势与关税忧虑进一步 巩固了这一趋势。Gopaul表示，黄金ETF、金条与 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold stocks have collectively opened higher, driven by increased safe-haven sentiment and rising expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, as international gold prices hit a new historical high [1] Group 1: Gold Stock Performance - Tongguan Gold (00340) rose by 5.24%, trading at HKD 2.41 [1] - Chifeng Gold (06693) increased by 5.08%, trading at HKD 29.4 [1] - Zhaojin Mining (01818) gained 4.4%, trading at HKD 28 [1] - China Gold International (02099) rose by 4.19%, trading at HKD 129.3 [1] - Shandong Gold (01787) increased by 3.63%, trading at HKD 32 [1] - Lingbao Gold (03330) rose by 3.53%, trading at HKD 16.15 [1] Group 2: Market Influences - International gold prices reached a new high, with New York futures gold surpassing USD 3600 per ounce and spot gold rising for six consecutive days, breaking the USD 3540 mark [1] - Weak U.S. economic data and negative evidence regarding Federal Reserve Governor Cook have increased market expectations for future monetary easing, supporting precious metal prices [1] Group 3: Upcoming Economic Indicators - The market is awaiting the upcoming non-farm payroll data, which is crucial for the Federal Reserve's September interest rate decision [1] - Morgan Stanley's latest report has set a year-end target price for gold at USD 3800 per ounce, emphasizing the strong negative correlation between gold and the U.S. dollar as a key pricing logic [1] - A continued depreciation of the dollar index is expected to directly benefit precious metals priced in dollars [1]

Market Dynamics - As of the latest trading day, COMEX gold futures have surpassed $2200 per ounce, with silver also rising, showing an annual increase of over 15% [2] - Domestic gold futures have reached historical highs, making them one of the best-performing asset classes this year [2] Core Logic Behind the Rise - **Increased Risk Aversion**: Ongoing geopolitical risks (Middle East conflicts, Russia-Ukraine situation) and heightened concerns over global economic slowdown have led to increased volatility in the stock market, driving funds into precious metals as a safe haven [3] - **Support from Easing Expectations**: The market widely anticipates that the Federal Reserve will initiate interest rate cuts within the year, while central banks globally continue to increase their gold reserves, with 2023 seeing record-high gold purchases. The decline in real interest rates reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold [3] Observational Insights - Historically, precious metal markets tend to perform strongest during periods of overlapping "risk events" and "monetary easing." Currently, the market is facing several conditions: acceleration of global "de-dollarization," institutionalization of central bank gold demand, and concentrated long positions in the derivatives market [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, reaching a historical high of $3602.4 per ounce, is driven by rising risk aversion due to uncertainties surrounding the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies and political risks [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of the close, COMEX gold futures increased by 1.51% to $3599.5 per ounce [1] - The China Gold ETF (518850) rose by 0.49%, while the Gold Stock ETF (159562) fell by 0.61% [1] Group 2: Drivers of Price Movement - The current rise in gold and silver prices is primarily influenced by macroeconomic policy expectations and political risks [1] - The shift to a "dovish" stance by the Federal Reserve Chairman has heightened market expectations for a potential interest rate cut in September [1] - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve have been amplified by President Trump's attempts to exert control through personnel changes, increasing the appeal of precious metals as a safe haven [1] - The U.S. Geological Survey's proposal to classify silver as a critical mineral has raised tariff concerns, contributing to silver's strong performance [1]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices surged due to rising risk aversion stemming from uncertainties related to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, reaching a historical high of $3602.4 per ounce [1] Group 1: Market Performance - COMEX gold futures increased by 1.51%, closing at $3599.5 per ounce [1] - The China Gold ETF (518850) rose by 0.49%, while the Gold Stock ETF (159562) fell by 0.61% [1] Group 2: Drivers of Price Movement - The current rise in gold and silver prices is driven by a combination of macroeconomic policy expectations and political risks [1] - The shift to a "dovish" stance by the Federal Reserve Chairman has heightened market expectations for a potential interest rate cut in September [1] - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve have been amplified by President Trump's attempts to exert control through personnel changes, increasing the appeal of precious metals as a safe haven [1] Group 3: Silver Market Dynamics - The U.S. Geological Survey's proposal to classify silver as a critical mineral has raised tariff concerns, contributing to strong performance in the silver market [1]

Core Viewpoint - Recent surge in gold prices, with London spot gold surpassing $3500 per ounce and COMEX gold futures reaching $3599.5 per ounce, marking historical highs [1][2] Group 1: Price Movement and Trends - Gold prices have increased by 5% since August, achieving the best performance since April [1] - Year-to-date, COMEX gold has risen by 36% [1] - After a four-month period of consolidation, gold prices resumed their upward trend in late August, breaking previous highs [2] Group 2: Influencing Factors - The primary driver of the recent gold price increase is the changing expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, with a 90% probability of a rate cut in September [3] - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve have led to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [4] - Global geopolitical instability has also contributed to the rising demand for gold [5] Group 3: Long-term Outlook - The structural weakening of the U.S. dollar credit system, exacerbated by rising government debt, is expected to support gold's long-term value [6] - As of August 12, U.S. national debt exceeded $37 trillion, significantly outpacing previous forecasts [6] - Central banks, including China's, are increasing their gold reserves, indicating a sustained bullish outlook for gold [7] Group 4: Investment Vehicles - Investors interested in gold can consider the Gold ETF (518800), which directly corresponds to physical gold holdings [8] - The Gold ETF has seen significant inflows, with its scale exceeding $17.2 billion and growing by nearly $10 billion this year [9]

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have rebounded strongly due to rising risk aversion and expectations of interest rate cuts, reaching historical highs and maintaining bullish momentum, although caution is advised regarding potential pullbacks [1][3]. Price Movement Summary - Gold opened at $3475.85 per ounce, peaked at $3508 before retreating, then fluctuated to a low of $3470.17, and ultimately closed at $3533.15, marking a daily increase of $57.3 or 1.65% [3]. - The price is expected to face resistance around $3500, with potential support levels at $3450 or $3400 for re-entry opportunities [1][10]. Market Outlook - The market is anticipating U.S. economic data releases, including July JOLTs job openings and factory orders, which are expected to be bearish for gold prices [5]. - Trump's announcement regarding tariffs could impact gold prices significantly, with potential pullbacks if the appeals are rejected, while a favorable outcome could maintain bullish trends [6]. Technical Analysis - The weekly chart indicates that gold has successfully tested the midline support and is poised for further upward movement, with bullish prospects strengthened by the widening Bollinger Bands [8]. - The daily chart shows that gold has encountered resistance near $3535, and if it fails to close above this level, a period of consolidation or pullback may occur, although the overall bullish trend remains intact [10]. Support and Resistance Levels - Key support levels for gold are identified at $3500 and $3480, while resistance levels are at $3545 and $3575 [11].

Group 1: Core Insights - The recent upward trend in gold prices is attributed to rising expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, a weakening dollar, and increased geopolitical risks, which have heightened safe-haven demand [2] - Institutional investors are optimistic about the future of gold, as evidenced by continuous increases in gold ETF holdings, contributing to the price rise [2] Group 2: Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, the Bollinger Bands are expanding, with gold prices trading above the upper band; MACD shows a bullish crossover, while RSI indicates an overbought condition, suggesting a potential pullback [3] - The 4-hour chart also shows expanding Bollinger Bands, with prices near the upper band; MACD remains bullish, and RSI is in an overbought state [3] - The 1-hour chart indicates expanding Bollinger Bands, with prices below the upper band; MACD shows a narrowing bullish crossover, and RSI remains overbought, signaling a potential slowdown in upward momentum [3] Group 3: Future Trading Strategies - For aggressive traders, a long position can be initiated near the support level of $3350/oz, while conservative traders may wait for a stabilization around $3300/oz before entering long positions [4] - For short positions, aggressive traders can consider selling near the resistance level of $3530/oz, while conservative traders may look to sell around $3550/oz [4] - Specific trading recommendations for various gold instruments include: - Shanghai gold futures showing strong upward momentum, with support at 800 CNY/g and resistance at 815 CNY/g [4] - Relying on international gold price movements, Rongtong gold is recommended for purchase around 795 CNY/g, targeting 810 CNY/g [4] - Accumulating Jicun gold when prices drop to around 790 CNY/g for long-term holding [4] - Gold T+D is stable, with a suggestion to enter a light long position around 795 CNY/g, targeting resistance at 810 CNY/g [4]