● 本报记者 昝秀丽 社保基金会12月16日消息，社保基金会党组书记、理事长刘昆12月15日主持召开党组会议，传达学习中 央经济工作会议精神，研究贯彻落实工作。会议明确，要稳妥审慎抓好基金投资运营。紧密跟踪国内外 宏观经济和资本市场形势，科学有效开展资产配置，稳健做好各大类资产投资。充分发挥长期资金、耐 心资本作用，在守住安全底线的基础上，积极服务国家发展需要，更好支持科技创新和产业创新深度融 合。 会议提出，中央经济工作会议是党的二十届四中全会后党中央召开的一次十分重要的会议。习近平总书 记的重要讲话，全面总结2025年经济工作，深刻分析当前经济形势，系统部署2026年经济工作，具有很 强的思想性、战略性、指导性，为扎实做好明年经济工作，确保"十五五"开好局、起好步指明了前进方 向、提供了根本遵循。理事会全体党员干部要认真学习领会，坚决抓好贯彻落实。 会议明确，要持续深入学习习近平总书记重要讲话和会议精神，与学习贯彻党的二十届四中全会精神结 合起来，准确把握精神实质和实践要求，进一步坚定信心、积极作为，推动党中央决策部署在理事会落 地落实。要稳妥审慎抓好基金投资运营。紧密跟踪国内外宏观经济和资本市场形势，科 ...

2025年，中国ETF市场迎来跨越式发展，规模与结构实现双重突破。 截至2025年12月15日，ETF总规模已从年初的约3.73万亿元激增至约5.74万亿元，年内规模增长超2万亿 元，增速超过53%。 在实现规模增长的同时，ETF市场内部结构也经历从"宽基独大"到"多点开花、多资产均衡" 的生态重 塑，行业竞争从"跑马圈地"转向 "精耕细作" 的发展新阶段。 业内人士认为，ETF市场竞争的核心已从早期的产品布局和费率比拼，全面升维至品牌、服务和生态构 建的综合实力较量。 ETF市场的量级跨越 2025年，ETF市场的规模发展一路提速。 ETF规模从年初的3.73万亿元，一路突破4万亿元、5万亿元大关，12月15日已达到约5.74万亿元，年内 增长已超2万亿元，增速超过53%。 回顾ETF发展的21年历史，自2004年12月份第一只ETF产品问世后，直到2020年10月份，ETF总规模历 时近16年突破第一个万亿元大关。此后，ETF进入加速发展期，2023年8月份，ETF总规模突破2万亿 元，第二个万亿元大关历时22个月；2024年9月份，ETF总规模突破3万亿元，第三个万亿元大关历时13 个月；2025年4月 ...

12月16日，当前市场对比特币ETF"表现不佳"的直观感受，在FXGT看来，更像是角色变化带来的错 觉。FXGT认为，ETF资金未能刷新去年的流入纪录，并不等同于吸引力下降，而是反映其功能正从价 格推动器转向风险缓冲器，这一变化对市场长期健康更为重要。 从数据层面看，市场给出"仅2%概率刷新纪录"的定价，ETF年度资金流与去年存在约110亿美元差距， 这些数字表明短期内难以复制启动初期的爆发式增长。但FXGT认为，这种差距并非负面信号，而是说 明ETF已从一次性配置工具，转变为常态化资产配置的一部分。 值得注意的是，在价格回落阶段，ETF资金重新转为净流入，交易量却同步下降。FXGT认为，这说明 市场参与者的行为正在改变：更多资金以配置为目的进入，而非短线博弈。这种结构，使比特币在整体 风险资产承压时，表现出更强的韧性。 进一步来看，比特币在87000至88000美元区间震荡整理，相较其他高波动资产更为稳健，而以太坊则承 受更明显的抛压。FXGT认为，这正体现了ETF在当前阶段的核心价值——吸收卖压、平滑波动，而不 是放大涨跌。 从年度视角出发，是否打破资金流入纪录已不再是衡量ETF成功与否的唯一标准。FXG ...

12月16日，在全球资产配置逻辑不断演变的背景下，Moneta Markets外汇认为，黄金在中长期内具备持 续跑赢美元资产和美国国债的潜力。随着市场对利率周期和货币环境的重新定价，黄金作为非收益型资 产的配置价值正在被重新审视，尤其在价格回调阶段，更容易吸引中长期资金布局。 从资产配置结构来看，维持较高比例的黄金配置，反映出机构投资者对传统固定收益资产吸引力下降的 判断。在通胀挂钩债券与公司债配置被明显削减的情况下，黄金仍保持稳定权重，显示其在多资产组合 中兼具防御与进攻属性。Moneta Markets外汇表示，同时，资产表现"扩散化"的趋势正在形成，不同市 场与不同资产类别轮动加快，黄金在其中扮演了重要角色。 展望未来，市场对金价的长期预期依然偏乐观。相关机构预计，随着利率逐步下行、货币政策趋于温 和，黄金价格有望在未来一年至数年内继续上探。围绕2026年的周期判断中，金价冲击更高水平被视为 基于宏观环境变化的合理推演。 综合来看，在美联储政策逐步向中性甚至偏宽松方向调整、实际利率仍处于高位但存在回落空间的环境 下，黄金的风险对冲与资产分散价值更加突出。Moneta Markets外汇表示，尤其是在股票 ...

Core Insights - The luxury real estate market in Shanghai has shown significant resilience and growth, with transactions of luxury properties priced over 10 million yuan increasing by 21% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, compared to a mere 5% increase in ordinary new homes [2][17] - The majority of this growth is concentrated in Shanghai, where 80% of luxury homes sold for over 50 million yuan are located, and 15 out of 19 properties sold for over 100 million yuan nationwide are also in Shanghai [2][17] - The luxury market is evolving, with some buyers viewing luxury homes as consumables rather than investments, while others are opting to rent instead of purchase, indicating a shift in buyer sentiment [2][19] Market Dynamics - The luxury market has seen a surge in demand, with high-profile projects like the "Cuihu Huating" selling out quickly, indicating a strong appetite among wealthy buyers [4][10] - New luxury developments are emerging in previously limited supply areas, with a notable increase in new luxury homes being marketed as "pre-sale" properties [6][8] - The introduction of a points-based lottery system for new home purchases has created a competitive environment, further driving demand for luxury properties [9][10] Buyer Behavior - Wealthy buyers are increasingly viewing luxury homes as a means of asset allocation, with many opting for larger units to accommodate family needs, reflecting changing lifestyle preferences [10][11] - The perception of luxury homes is shifting, with some buyers now considering them as depreciating assets rather than purely investment vehicles, leading to a more cautious approach in purchasing [22][48] - The market is witnessing a diversification of buyers, with a significant proportion of non-local buyers, particularly from Zhejiang and Jiangsu provinces, becoming key players in the luxury segment [33] Supply and Pricing Trends - The supply of luxury homes is increasing, with a notable rise in projects priced above 10 million yuan, leading to a more competitive market environment [54] - The average price for high-end residential properties in Shanghai has reached record levels, with some areas seeing prices as high as 24.32 million yuan per square meter [17][39] - The traditional price premium of second-hand luxury homes over new builds is diminishing, as new luxury properties are now being offered at competitive prices [50][52] Developer Strategies - Developers are adapting to market changes by offering more flexible financing options and reducing entry barriers for buyers, indicating a shift in strategy to stimulate sales [52] - The competitive landscape among developers is intensifying, with major players like Greenland and China Overseas actively acquiring prime land parcels to bolster their luxury offerings [39][40] - The luxury market is becoming increasingly segmented, with a clear hierarchy emerging based on location and property features, influencing buyer preferences and pricing strategies [27][30]

Group 1: Global Asset Allocation - The core viewpoint emphasizes that investors should focus on building resilient investment portfolios amid uncertainty rather than trying to predict market turning points [2] - Morgan Stanley's chief economist for China, Xing Ziqiang, predicts that the US economy will maintain resilience over the next two years, with real growth close to 2% and nominal growth reaching 4-5% [3] - The support for this prediction is based on the "AI investment boom" and the unique US strategy of "high growth, high inflation, and low interest rate" for debt management [3] Group 2: Market Perspectives - Lianhua Asset Management's partner, Hong Hao, anticipates significant market volatility in 2026 due to potential Federal Reserve policy missteps, suggesting that the dollar may be losing its traditional safe-haven status [4] - Hong Hao believes that the US stock market may experience a "rise then fall" pattern, with liquidity cycles still supporting risk assets in the short term, but warns of high valuation risks [4] - In contrast, Hong Hao is more optimistic about commodities, particularly industrial metals, which he sees as essential in the AI era for building data and energy centers [4][5] Group 3: Domestic Market Insights - Xing Ziqiang highlights the "bright side" of the Chinese economy, noting that new technology sectors provide opportunities for investors, especially after the "9.24 policy" improved market vitality [8] - Hong Hao points out that China is undergoing a significant transition from a real estate-driven economy to one driven by new productive forces, including AI and robotics [8] - The outlook for the Chinese stock market is characterized by dynamic highlights that can sustain growth despite macroeconomic challenges [8][10] Group 4: Long-term Strategy - Xing Ziqiang proposes a new asset allocation strategy termed "6-2-2," suggesting 60% in equities, 20% in gold, and 20% in bonds, reflecting a reassessment of strategic asset values amid declining fiat currency credibility [10] - Hong Hao expresses cautious optimism about gold, suggesting potential prices of $4000 for gold and $60 for silver, while noting that current prices may already reflect most positive factors [11] - The final investment advice emphasizes the importance of position management and constructing a portfolio with multiple independent sources of alpha to achieve controllable volatility and attractive returns [12]

Core Insights - The traditional safety of bank deposits is diminishing as interest rates fail to keep pace with inflation, leading to a sense of financial anxiety among individuals [1][9] - The investment landscape is fraught with risks, and many are falling prey to scams promising high returns, particularly among those less familiar with financial markets [11][15] Group 1: Bank Deposits and Inflation - Bank deposit interest rates have significantly declined from 3.25% in 2021 to below 2.15% by 2024, with some banks offering rates as low as 1.95% [3] - The purchasing power of money is eroding, with essential goods like vegetables and medications experiencing price increases, leading to a phenomenon termed "invisible shrinkage" of wealth [5][7] Group 2: Investment Risks and Scams - Many individuals are seeking higher returns due to low interest rates, making them vulnerable to scams that promise guaranteed profits [11][13] - Financial products from banks are also yielding lower returns, with some investment products dropping by as much as 150 basis points, leading to significant losses for investors [15] Group 3: Economic Environment and Employment - The rise of AI is contributing to a cycle of "technological unemployment," where job losses lead to reduced consumer spending, further exacerbating economic challenges [17] - Historical comparisons, such as the "lost two decades" in Germany and Japan, highlight the importance of stable asset allocation over speculative investments during turbulent times [19][41] Group 4: Entrepreneurship Challenges - The entrepreneurial landscape has become increasingly difficult, with over 80% of new restaurant ventures failing within months due to market saturation and rising costs [24][26] - Successful entrepreneurs are those who adapt to market demands and invest in skills that meet real needs, rather than following trends blindly [28] Group 5: Financial Management Strategies - A shift in wealth management strategies is evident, with individuals prioritizing certainty over high returns, reflecting lessons learned from past financial pitfalls [17][20] - The concept of "stable and detailed" financial management is emphasized, advocating for a balanced approach to savings, investments, and personal development [32][35]

Group 1 - The overall asset performance indicates that various asset classes have entered a period of fluctuation, with the equity market experiencing a high-level consolidation phase, primarily driven by the technology sector, while consumer and cyclical sectors remain weak [1][6]. - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut was weaker than expected, limiting its positive impact on the U.S. and global economies, which in turn affects the capital markets [1][6]. - The Central Economic Work Conference in China reiterated a stable growth approach, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and improving investment, although the implementation of these policies may take time to materialize [2][10]. Group 2 - The A-share market is currently in a high-level consolidation phase, with limited substantial positive news and a preference for stability as the new year approaches [2][10]. - The report suggests a "barbell strategy" for asset allocation, recommending maintaining positions in the technology sector while cautiously considering opportunities in the consumer sector due to recent positive macro data [2][11]. - The technology sector is expected to remain a core driver of market performance, with significant opportunities arising from national competition and domestic innovation [10][11]. Group 3 - The bond market is following the trends of the equity market, showing a clear negative correlation, and is expected to remain under pressure without significant positive catalysts [3][32]. - The bond market's configuration suggests limited upward potential in the short term, but it may serve as a stabilizing option against equity market volatility [32]. Group 4 - The commodity market is experiencing a return to a fluctuating trend, with precious metals like silver supporting the upward movement of the precious metals index, while energy and chemical commodities are underperforming [4][41]. - The report anticipates that gold may continue to rise in the long term, driven by a decoupling from the U.S. dollar, although the overall strength of the commodity market will depend on the performance of metals and agricultural products [41][45].

各位投资者朋友大家上午好欢迎来到2025年收官的年终的宏观策略谈我们今天关注对26年中国宏观政策的定调 对产业竞争格局和出口的前景还有就是经历了美联储的降息会议和中国的经济工作会议之后现在对于美股欧股和亚洲的股票的资产配置的博弈 今天像往常一样我会来抛砖引玉紧接着我们的首席策略师Laura会讲中美重量级会议之后对全球股市配置的最新看法我的同事郑林会讲刚刚出炉的经济数据对接下来经济工作会议也已经结束了12月到一季度之间几个政策抓手的时间顺序的想法 刚刚公布的数据反映出来的四季度的一些倾向可能让这种前置有了迫切感但这个前置更多的还是投向了基建比如说城市更新地下管网改造绿色转型的储能电网以及一些跟AI算力中心相关的公共开支领域 那么当然到了一年之中的六到九月份之间如果上半年的形势演绎从地产到物价到就业有进一步的情况的出现像刚才我们讲到的形势比人强也可能会追加相当于GDP0.5个点的新增的裁定空间我觉得现在国务院以及决策层是有这方面的灵活性进行相继抉择的 同样我们也考虑到当前整个中国经济打破通缩到足且长但是产业竞争的亮点是不乏的所以我们的亚洲经济学家Derek会来汇报一下我们刚刚出炉的一份深度报告对于中国的产业竞争格 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is launching a series of live investment sharing events titled "One Step Ahead to Prosper in the New Year - 2026 Year-End Investment Sharing Gala" starting December 18, aimed at helping investors review the market trends of 2025 and plan for investment directions in 2026 [1][2]. Group 1: Event Overview - The event will feature 17 investment research experts and include 12 high-quality themed live broadcasts focusing on multi-asset allocation and various industry themes [1]. - The series aims to cater to investors with different risk preferences and interests, providing insights and thoughts to better capture long-term investment opportunities [1]. Group 2: Content Focus - The live broadcasts will cover three main dimensions: asset allocation, industry insights, and strategy outlook [1]. - In asset allocation, topics will include active equity, bond markets, gold assets, overseas markets, pension planning, and quantitative investment, analyzed in the context of current events like the "14th Five-Year Plan," Federal Reserve interest rate meetings, and the third anniversary of personal pension policies [1]. Group 3: Industry Insights and Strategy - The industry insights segment will focus on investment themes such as AI technology, pharmaceuticals, consumer goods, new energy, and military industry, providing in-depth analysis of industry development trends [2]. - The strategy outlook will be presented by Dr. Wu Youhui, General Manager of the Macro Strategy Department, offering a macroeconomic and market outlook for 2026 to guide investment directions for the new year [2]. Group 4: Engagement and Accessibility - The event will feature account managers from the investment management department as hosts, facilitating in-depth discussions and addressing market and industry questions from investors [4]. - The live broadcasts will be accessible through multiple platforms, including the company's official app and video account, providing a comprehensive and timely investment research experience [4]. Group 5: Educational Initiative - The "Heart Bridge Journey" brand represents the company's commitment to connecting with investors and promoting value, long-term, and rational investment philosophies [5]. - Since its inception in 2005, the initiative has conducted over 7,000 offline educational activities and more than 600 live broadcasts, reaching millions of investors nationwide [5].