Report Overview - The report is a macro-financial data daily report released by the Guomao Futures Research Institute's Macro-Financial Research Center on June 11, 2025 [2][3] Market Interest Rates - DRO01 closed at 1.36 with a -1.41bp change, DR007 at 1.51 with a -0.63bp change, GC001 at 1.51 with an 8.50bp change, and GC007 at 1.56 with a 1.00bp change [3] - SHBOR 3M closed at 1.65 with a -0.40bp change, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with a -10.00bp change [3] - 1 - year treasury closed at 1.41 with a -0.25bp change, 5 - year treasury at 1.50 with a 0.54bp change, 10 - year treasury at 1.59 with a 0.25bp change, and 10 - year US treasury at 4.49 with a -2.00bp change [3] Central Bank Operations - The central bank conducted 1986 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with an operating rate of 1.40% the previous day. With 4545 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, the net withdrawal was 2559 billion yuan [3] - This week, 9309 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market, with 2149 billion, 1265 billion, and 1350 billion yuan maturing from Wednesday to Friday respectively [4] Stock Index Futures - The CSI 300 closed at 3865 with a -0.51% change, IF current - month contract at 3841 with a -0.7% change; the SSE 50 closed at 2676 with a -0.39% change, IH current - month contract at 2660 with a -0.6% change; the CSI 500 closed at 5758 with a -0.82% change, IC current - month contract at 5718 with a -0.8% change; the CSI 1000 closed at 6162 with a -0.92% change, IM current - month contract at 6114 with a -0.9% change [5] - IF trading volume was 98975 with a 12.2% change, IF open interest was 238881 with a -1.6% change; IH trading volume was 26839 with a 28.1% change, IH open interest was 84465 with a 0.1% change; IC trading volume was 86124 with a 12.8% change, IC open interest was 219085 with a -0.7% change; IM trading volume was 212759 with a 23.5% change, IM open interest was 338127 with a 4.2% change [5] Market Analysis and Suggestions - The domestic factors have weak driving force for the stock index. The fundamentals are weak, with prices remaining low and export growth slowing. The policy is in a relatively quiet period [6] - Overseas factors dominate the short - term fluctuations of the stock index. Attention should be paid to the latest progress of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations. Without obvious positive news, the possibility of the stock index breaking through upwards is low. It is recommended to wait and see [6] Index Futures Premium and Discount - IF premium/discount: current - month contract 23.10%, next - month contract 15.22%, current - quarter contract 0.02%, next - quarter contract 5.91% [7] - IH premium/discount: current - month contract 22.37%, next - month contract 17.01%, current - quarter contract 7.18%, next - quarter contract 3.71% [7] - IC premium/discount: current - month contract 25.22%, next - month contract 18.22%, current - quarter contract 13.97%, next - quarter contract 11.48% [7] - IM premium/discount: current - month contract 28.37%, next - month contract 22.09%, current - quarter contract 17.95%, next - quarter contract 14.85% [7]

Group 1 - The core point of the article indicates that the recent U.S.-China trade negotiations have reached a significant stage, with the departure of U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin suggesting a potential consensus has been approached [1][3] - The involvement of U.S. Commerce Secretary Ross, who was not part of the previous negotiations, signifies a shift in U.S. diplomatic strategy, incorporating export control issues into the discussions [3][7] - The negotiations lasted for 20 hours, resulting in a preliminary "basic trade framework," which both sides plan to present to their leaders for further action [4][5] Group 2 - The intense negotiation format, described as "marathon-style," has facilitated communication between the two parties, although it has not eliminated all differences [5][9] - China's firm stance against U.S. demands is expected, as they maintain a principle of "equality and mutual benefit," indicating readiness to resist unreasonable requests [7][9] - The upcoming expiration of the U.S. tariff grace period adds urgency to the negotiations, with the possibility of an extension to allow more time for agreement [9][11] Group 3 - The complexity of the U.S.-China trade talks is expected to increase, influenced by Mnuchin's exit, Ross's entry, and China's strong position, which will impact the final outcomes of the negotiations [11]

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3384.82, down by 14.96 points, a decrease of 0.44%[1] - The CSI 300 Index closed at 3865.47, down by 19.78 points, a decrease of 0.51%[1] - The ChiNext Index fell by 1.17%, while the STAR 50 Index dropped by 1.47%[2] Bond Market Insights - The yield on the 10-year government bond rose by 0.2 basis points to 1.66%[2] - The 30-year government bond yield decreased by 0.4 basis points to 1.87%[2] - The central bank conducted a reverse repo of 198.6 billion yuan, with a net withdrawal of 255.9 billion yuan[4] Economic and Trade Context - The ongoing US-China trade talks have led to a cautious market sentiment, impacting stock performance negatively[2] - Gold prices increased, with London gold rising from $3300 to $3340 per ounce during the talks[3] - The market is adjusting to lower volatility expectations, which may lead to sudden shifts in asset prices[6] Sector Performance - The small-cap index (CSI 2000) fell by 0.82%, indicating a crowded market that may face increased outflows[7] - The technology sector saw significant declines, with the innovation drug index rising by 0.84%, showing resilience against broader market trends[7] Investment Outlook - The current market adjustment is viewed as a healthy correction, potentially leading to increased trading activity[8] - The technology sector's fundamentals remain intact, suggesting opportunities for recovery despite recent declines[8]

当地时间6月9日，中美双方代表团在英国伦敦举行中美经贸磋商机制首次会议。 根据会议公布的照片，可以看到，美方代表团主要成员包括 美国财政部长贝森特、 美国贸易代表格里 尔和 美国商务部长卢特尼克。 具体从美方 代表团 的职责来看： 美国财政部长贝森特负责宏观经济和金融问题 ，是特朗普 政府 关税战略执行的关键人物，本身有统筹 协调的作用， 牵头负责与多国的谈判 。 贝森特也对这些话题很感兴趣 ，作为前对冲基金经理，贝森特 一直 面临来自金融市场的压力，其 被 要求 就贸易协定做出澄清，以减少 对美国 经济 的冲击。 美国经济当前至少有四个痛点： （1）宏观经济增速放缓。美国 2025 年一季度 GDP 环比萎缩 0.3% 。 （2）通胀 出现上行的压力，美国 1 年及 5 年通胀预期甚至飙升到了 6.7% 和 4.4% 。 （3）影响制造业。关税政策并未给美国制造业带来积极影响，纽约联储制造业指数恶化至 -9.2，处于 负值区间，这反映出美国的制造业仍然处于收缩状态。 （4）贸易放缓。美国 4 月进口额出现史上最大降幅，由于不确定关税的变化，美国贸易大幅放缓。 面对这些不确定性 ， 贝森特亟需给美国传递确定性 ...

Market Overview - On June 10, the three major stock indices opened mixed, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.07%, the Shenzhen Component Index falling by 0.02%, and the ChiNext Index declining by 0.16% [1] Guest Opinions - Guotai Junan Securities' investment advisor Wang Chen believes that the overall market risk is controllable, and a short-term upward trend is expected. A key upward breakthrough may require the activation of heavyweight sectors [2] - Dongfang Securities' investment advisor Ying Fang suggests that investors focus on specific sectors that have undergone sufficient adjustments, while also considering taking profits in sectors with long-term potential [2] - Jinyuan Securities' chief investment advisor Xu Chuanbao holds an optimistic view of the market, recommending that investors seize structural opportunities and select quality stocks for medium to long-term investment [2] Brokerage Insights - CITIC Securities reports a slight decline in export growth, with May's export growth rate dropping by 3.3 percentage points to 4.8%, slightly below market expectations. The report highlights strong export growth to non-US markets and the significant contribution of the semiconductor and automotive industries to exports [5][6] - Huatai Securities indicates that AI applications are expected to see rapid growth in areas where data processes are standardized and ROI is quantifiable. The commercialization of AI is accelerating, particularly in ToC scenarios like gaming and e-commerce, while ToB applications in marketing and sales are moving towards large-scale implementation [7]

Market Overview - A-shares opened with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.07%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.02% and 0.16% respectively, with sectors like hyperbaric oxygen chambers, DRG concepts, and liquid-cooled servers leading the gains [1] - In the US market, the Dow Jones Index slightly decreased by 1.11 points to 42,761.76 points, while the S&P 500 Index rose by 0.09% to 6,005.88 points, marking its first close above 6000 points since February 21. The Nasdaq Composite Index increased by 0.31% to 19,591.24 points, achieving a new closing high since late February [2] Export and Import Trends - According to CITIC Securities, China's export growth rate slightly declined by 3.3 percentage points to 4.8% in May, influenced by a drop in April export orders and a high base from the previous year. Exports to non-US markets remained strong, indicating ongoing "transshipment" activities among foreign trade enterprises [3] - The report highlights that the semiconductor, automotive, and machinery sectors significantly contributed to export growth. However, imports saw a larger decline, particularly from the US and major bulk commodities [3] AI Application Insights - Huatai Securities notes that the commercialization of AI agents is accelerating, particularly in sectors where data processes are standardized and ROI can be quantified. The ToC (business-to-consumer) scenarios are advancing faster due to simpler demands, while ToB (business-to-business) applications in marketing and sales are transitioning from exploration to large-scale application [4] Banking Sector Outlook - Galaxy Securities indicates that positive factors are accumulating in the banking sector, with the central bank injecting liquidity of 1 trillion yuan through reverse repos. This is expected to help banks manage the pressure from maturing interbank certificates of deposit and lower deposit rates [5] - The report suggests that the banking sector is poised for a performance turnaround, supported by improved liquidity transparency and structural financial policies [5] Power Equipment Sector Analysis - CITIC Jiantou emphasizes that the power equipment sector maintains a favorable outlook, driven by strong domestic and overseas demand. It forecasts that domestic grid investment will exceed 650 billion yuan in 2025, with continued growth potential [6] - The report also highlights the global trend of large-scale data center construction, which is expected to significantly boost the demand for supporting electrical equipment [6]

5月30日，外交部发言人林剑主持例行记者会。 综合自：央视新闻 责编：李丹 校对： 刘星莹 版权声明 证券时报各平台所有原创内容，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载。我社保留追 究相关 行 为主体 法律责任的权利。 有记者就中美经贸谈判情况提问。 林剑表示，中方已多次阐明了在关税问题上的立场，具体问题建议你向中方的主管部门询问。 有记者就美国政客有关在美中国留学生的言论提问。 林剑表示，美方政府的有关言论充斥着意识形态偏见和冷战零和思维，任何抹黑攻击中国共产党、诋毁中国道 路和制度的企图，任何想把中国共产党同中国人民分割对立起来的企图都是痴心妄想、自不量力，都会遭到 14亿多中国人民坚决反对，注定失败。 有记者就中美相关出口管制措施提问。 林剑表示，中方出台的出口管制措施符合国际通行做法，是非歧视性，不针对特定国家。我们愿与有关国家和 地区加强出口管制领域对话合作，致力于维护全球产供链稳定，美方的有关做法是在泛化国家安全概念，将经 贸科技问题政治化、工具化，对中国进行恶意封锁和打压，我们对此坚决反对，并将坚决维护自身的正当权 益。 转载与合作可联系证券时报小助理，微信ID：SecuritiesTimes E ...

Core Viewpoint - The significant reduction in tariffs between China and the U.S. has led to a mixed reaction in the A-share market, with initial gains followed by a decline, raising questions among investors about the underlying reasons for this behavior [1]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The A-share market had already rebounded over 8% since the resumption of China-U.S. trade negotiations, with some export-related stocks rising over 30%, indicating that the market had priced in the expectation of tariff reductions [2]. - Following the release of the joint statement, profit-taking by investors led to increased selling pressure, resulting in a quick drop in the index after an initial high opening [2]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index faced significant selling pressure around the 3400-point mark, which is a previous area of high trading volume, leading to many retail investors selling to break even [3]. - The ChiNext Index also struggled with resistance at the 2100-point level, and insufficient trading volume contributed to the failure to break through this barrier [3]. Group 3: Sector Rotation and Fund Flow - Sectors benefiting from tariff reductions, such as cross-border e-commerce and consumer electronics, saw initial gains but then retreated, while growth sectors like photovoltaic batteries attracted continued investment, indicating a market focus on long-term industry logic rather than short-term events [4]. - Recent regulatory changes for public funds have pressured capital to shift from high-volatility stocks to undervalued blue-chip stocks, with bank stocks rising to new highs as a safe haven for investors [4]. - Although growth stocks experienced a rebound, trading volumes did not significantly increase, reflecting a market characterized by existing capital rather than new inflows, suggesting a cautious outlook [4].

Core Insights - The report indicates that the US stock market has experienced a strong rebound, with the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 indices rising by 6.4% and 4.5% respectively [3][4] - The primary catalyst for this rally was the unexpected positive outcome of the US-China trade negotiations, which led to significant reductions in bilateral tariffs [6][9] - The report highlights that sectors closely tied to global manufacturing and supply chains, such as information technology, consumer discretionary, and telecommunications, outperformed the S&P 500 index [3][5] Economic Factors - The US tariffs have become a dominant factor influencing the performance of the US stock market, primarily due to the widespread impact of Trump's tariff policies [9] - Concerns about tariffs potentially causing a rebound in US inflation and hindering the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates have been alleviated by the recent tariff reductions [9][14] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for April showed a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, marking the lowest level since February 2021, which further supports the bullish sentiment in the stock market [10][14] Market Outlook - The report suggests that while the immediate outlook for the US stock market appears positive due to improved trade relations, uncertainties remain regarding the long-term effects of tariff policies and potential inflation risks [15] - The market's expectations for the Federal Reserve's next interest rate cut have been pushed back from July to September, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy amid ongoing economic assessments [14][15] - Investors are advised to maintain a cautious stance towards the US stock market, anticipating a period of consolidation in the near term [15]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-05-15 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多因素支撑，沪胶震荡偏强 | | 合成胶 | 2507 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多因素支撑，合成胶震荡偏强 | 核心逻辑：国内外天胶产区将陆续进入新一轮割胶旺季，原料产出稳步增长，新胶供应将逐渐回升。 同时下游轮胎行业经历五一长假以后，开工率转入阶段性回升状态，采购需求有望增强。由于供需 结构缺乏持续改善的动力，叠加青岛保税区橡胶库存小幅累库，难以支撑节后胶价持续走强。在中 美经贸谈判取得实时性进展背景下，市场风险偏好得到提振，本周三夜盘国内沪胶期货 2509 合约略 微收涨 0.20%至 15185 元/吨，预计本周四国内橡胶期货 2509 合约或维持震荡偏强的走势。 备 ...