证券研究报告 | 宏观专题报告 2025 年 12 月 15 日 如何提高居民消费率？ 根据消费经济的一般演进路径，随着居民收入不断提高，消费重心会逐渐从日 常消耗品转向耐用商品，并进一步向服务领域扩展。当前，我国人均 GDP 已 跃升至 1.3 万美元以上，居民消费格局呈现出从商品主导向服务主导转变的趋 势。与一般发达国家相比，我国服务消费占比明显偏低，"十五五"时期提升 居民消费率的战略选择就是大力发展服务消费。 ❑ 消费的宏观特征：消费率低，但消费量并不低；政府消费占比较高，居民 消费率偏低；实物消费占比高，而服务型消费占比低。 1）中国整体消费率（最终消费支出/GDP）明显低于一般发达国家，但最 终消费量并不低，剔除价格、汇率等因素，按照购买力平价后的绝对消费 量接近美国，且大于整个欧盟总和；由于中国属于制造业大国，国内商 品、服务价格普遍低于国际平均水平。 2）最终消费结构中，中国居民消费率（居民消费支出/GDP）不仅低于全 球平均水平，而且低于同为发展中国家的印度、巴西等国；中国政府消费 额以及占 GDP 的比重均高于全球水平，亦高于一般发达国家，形成了 "官方消费比民间旺盛"的独特现象。 3）与 ...

Group 1 - The market experienced fluctuations with the banking sector showing a low opening but recovering, while domestic demand-related sectors led the gains. As of 14:00, the Guozheng Value 100 Index rose by 0.4%, accumulating nearly 7% since October, outperforming similar value style indices. The value ETF (159263) saw a net subscription of 87 million units today, indicating high investor interest [1] - Three government departments jointly issued 11 policy measures to boost consumption, reinforcing the focus on expanding domestic circulation. Market views suggest that the expectations and pricing for domestic and external demand products differ significantly from last year, and if domestic demand-related products exceed expectations, there could be substantial valuation elasticity [1] - The Guozheng Value 100 Index focuses on deep value, utilizing a screening system based on "high dividends + high free cash flow + low PE" to select core value stocks in the market. The top three industries in the index are home appliances, banking, and automobiles, collectively accounting for over 45%. Since its launch in 2012, the index has achieved an annualized return of over 12%. The value ETF (159263) is currently the only ETF tracking this index, facilitating investors in accessing undervalued quality assets in the market [1]

国家统计局周一公布数据显示，11月社会消费品零售总额同比增长1.3%，增速较10月小幅回落1.6个百分点。1-11月，社会消费品零售总额同比增长4.0%。 往后看，王青表示，明年新能源汽车购置减免退坡，有可能刺激年底汽车销量增加，但短期内出台其他促消费政策的可能性已经不大，加之上年同期社零基 数抬高，预计12月社零同比增速会继续保持在低位。 经济学人智库高级经济学家徐天辰对智通财经表示，由于"国补"退坡，12月消费或难有明显增长。"十五五"把消费放到了比较重要的位置，2026年又是"十 五五"第一年，类似国补的刺激仍会继续，但更应当关注政府是否会深入推进促消费的长效机制。 财信金控首席经济学家伍超明对智通财经表示，后续消费恢复仍持续面临多重挑战，例如受高基数、乘数效用边际下降影响，以旧换新政策的拉动作用大概 率继续减弱。另外，内外需放缓将加大居民就业压力，导致"就业-收入-消费"不畅，制约消费能力改善空间；居民"多储蓄、少消费"行为模式短期难改，消 费意愿提升动力偏弱。 记者 辛圆 针对消费增速的继续回落，东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青对智通财经表示，去年同期受"双11"活动提前等影响，社零基数偏低，但在今年"双 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Commerce, along with the People's Bank of China and the Financial Regulatory Bureau, has issued a notification aimed at enhancing collaboration between commerce and finance to boost consumer spending [1] Group 1: Policy Initiatives - The notification encourages local governments to utilize digital RMB smart contract red envelopes to improve the effectiveness of consumption promotion policies [1] - It suggests exploring various methods such as financing guarantees, loan interest subsidies, and risk compensation to strengthen the coordination of fiscal, commercial, and financial policies [1] - The focus is on guiding credit funds to increase investment in key consumer sectors [1] Group 2: Support for Specific Sectors - Local governments are encouraged to support key projects in health and wellness, cultural tourism, and new consumption areas such as digital and green sectors through various means [1] - Banks and non-bank financial institutions are urged to leverage their unique strengths and collaborate in consumer promotion activities to enhance the quality and upgrade of consumption [1]

Core Viewpoint - New consumption concept stocks are experiencing a broad increase, indicating a positive market sentiment and potential growth in the sector [1][2] Stock Performance - Notable stock increases include: - Cha Bai Dao (02555) up by 5.76% - Guo Quan (02517) up by 4.50% - Lao Pu Gold (06181) up by 4.14% - Miniso (09896) up by 3.00% - Hu Shang A Yi (02589) up by 2.84% - Juzi Biotechnology (02367) up by 2.97% [1][2] Industry Outlook - According to Huatai Securities, the differentiation between new and old consumption will continue into 2025, driven by changes in "people, goods, and venues" and technological advancements [1][2] - The report anticipates that consumer policies will stimulate supply and demand potential, leading to a steady recovery in domestic demand and continued industry differentiation in 2026 [1][2] Investment Focus - The report suggests focusing on four main investment themes: 1. Rise of domestic brands: Attention on潮玩 (trendy toys), beauty and personal care, and gold jewelry brands competing in both domestic and international markets [1][2] 2. Technology-enabled consumption: Emphasis on the rapid increase in smart product penetration rates due to technological and product innovation [1][2] 3. Emotional consumption: Monitoring growth potential in service consumption, ready-to-drink beverages, pets, and new tobacco products [1][2] 4. Undervalued high-dividend blue-chip leaders: Focus on opportunities for marginal recovery while balancing risk and reward [1][2]

Group 1 - The forum's theme is "Financial New Forces, Innovative Consumption Power," emphasizing the integration of finance and consumption [1] - Two annual reports will be released: one focusing on inclusive finance and the other on the efficient cycle of technology, industry, and capital [1] - The role of commercial consumption is defined as a cultural backdrop, a coordinate point, and a weather vane for market and social confidence [1] Group 2 - The 2026 economic goals include a significant increase in the resident consumption rate, with financial services playing a crucial role [2] - Policies to promote consumption will continue to be strengthened, focusing more on service consumption and optimizing supply [2] - The forum aims to create a platform for multi-party communication to foster consensus and resource integration for industry collaboration [2]

港股消费ETF（513230）跟踪中证港股通消费主题指数，一键打包互联网电商龙头+新消费，成分股近 乎囊括港股消费的各个领域，包括泡泡玛特、老铺黄金、蜜雪集团等新消费龙头，又包含腾讯、阿里巴 巴、美团等互联网电商龙头，科技+消费属性突出。 12月10日，国家统计局发布了最新月度居民消费价格指数（CPI）及工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）。 数据显示，11月，居民消费持续恢复，CPI同比上涨0.7%，涨幅比上月扩大0.5个百分点，为2024年3月 份以来最高。同时，扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨1.2%，涨幅连续3个月保持在1%以上。 华泰证券研报表示，展望2026年，促消费政策持续发力有望激发供需潜力，内需有望延续稳健复苏态 势，行业延续景气分化，龙头凭借领先与创新优势，以及整合能力将实现持续成长。 12月11日，港股三大指数早盘回落，恒指涨0.09%，国企指数跌0.13%，恒生科技指数跌0.65%。港股消 费板块早盘窄幅震荡，港股消费ETF（513230）现小幅微跌至0.2%，其持仓股中，古茗、思摩尔国际、 老铺黄金、万洲国际等涨幅靠前，巨子生物、统一企业中国、同程旅行、中国儒意等跌幅靠前。 ...

Group 1 - Recent policies aimed at promoting consumption and boosting domestic demand have been intensively introduced [1] - Experts believe that extending and expanding direct subsidies, as well as consumer loan interest subsidies, are expected to be effective short-term consumption promotion policies [1] - The consumption sector is showing signs of bottoming out, with fundamental recovery acting as a catalyst for stock price increases [1] Group 2 - Chain restaurants and new tea beverage companies with scale effects and significant earnings elasticity are highlighted as promising investment opportunities [1] - Sports companies involved in event operations and related services are also considered noteworthy [1] - Performing arts operators with scarce IP value that can continuously convert fan economy are identified as key segments to watch [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, highlighting a recovery in consumer spending and the impact of various factors on price changes in November 2024 [3]. Group 1: CPI Analysis - In November, the CPI increased by 0.7% year-on-year, the highest since March 2024, driven primarily by a turnaround in food prices, which shifted from a 2.9% decline to a 0.2% increase [3]. - Fresh vegetable prices saw a significant change, rising by 14.5% year-on-year after nine consecutive months of decline, contributing approximately 0.49 percentage points to the CPI [3]. - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2% year-on-year, maintaining a growth rate above 1% for three consecutive months, with notable increases in household appliances and clothing prices [6]. Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI increased by 0.1% month-on-month in November, marking the second consecutive month of growth, influenced by seasonal demand increases in certain domestic industries [8]. - Year-on-year, the PPI decreased by 2.2%, with the decline rate widening by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month, primarily due to high comparison bases from the previous year [9]. - Prices in key industries such as coal mining and photovoltaic equipment manufacturing showed a narrowing of year-on-year decline rates, indicating improvements in market competition and production capacity management [9]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The article suggests that the CPI is likely to continue rising in the coming months due to low comparison bases and effective consumption promotion policies, with a projected central inflation level of around 0.7% for the fourth quarter [10]. - The PPI is expected to show positive changes that could benefit business operations and economic circulation, emphasizing the need for continued expansion of domestic demand and effective investment [10].

扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨1.2%。 国家统计局12月10日发布最新居民消费价格指数（CPI）和工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）数据。 随着扩内需政策持续落地见效，居民消费持续恢复，11月份CPI同比上涨0.7%，为2024年3月份以来最 高。受国内部分行业供需结构优化、国际大宗商品价格传导等因素影响，PPI环比上涨0.1%，同比下降 2.2%。 国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉分析，11月CPI同比上涨0.7%，涨幅比上月扩大0.5个百分点，同比涨 幅扩大主要是食品价格由降转涨拉动。食品价格由上月下降2.9%转为上涨0.2%，对CPI同比的影响由上 月下拉0.54个百分点转为上拉0.04个百分点。 食品中，鲜菜价格由上月同比下降7.3%转为上涨14.5%，为连续下降9个月后首次转涨，对CPI同比的上 拉影响比上月增加约0.49个百分点；鲜果价格由上月下降2.0%转为上涨0.7%；猪肉和禽肉类价格分别同 比下降15.0%和0.6%，降幅均有收窄。 PPI同比下降2.2%，降幅比上月扩大0.1个百分点，主要受上年同期对比基数走高影响。 董莉娟表示，我国各项宏观政策不断显效，价格呈现积极变化。综合整治" ...