孙立坚（复旦大学金融研究中心主任） 消费是拉动经济增长的第一动力，服务消费作为消费升级的关键载体，正在成为中国经济增长的"结构 性变量"。当前，我国人均GDP已突破1.3万美元，居民消费需求从"物质型"向"服务型"加速转型，2025 年居民人均服务性消费支出占比达46.1%，服务零售额增速持续高于商品零售额。当前，加快培育服务 消费新增长点，推动服务消费提质扩容，既是顺应居民消费升级的必然选择，更是增强经济内生动力、 实现产业结构优化升级的战略突破口。本文立足"为何是它、怎么做"的逻辑主线，系统剖析服务消费成 为经济新动能的深层逻辑，直面现实堵点，把握多维机遇，提出打造现代化的服务消费供给体系，为激 活服务消费增长潜力、赋能经济高质量发展提供系统性思路。 三重逻辑：服务消费为何是关键 服务消费能成为中国经济高质量发展的新动能，是居民需求升级、经济结构转型、政策持续赋能三重逻 辑叠加的结果，兼具民生与经济双重属性，是推动发展与改善民生的重要抓手。 居民消费升级为服务消费筑牢需求根基，场景经济释放乘数效应。随着居民可支配收入增长，消费需求 从"满足基本生活"向"追求品质体验"转变，服务消费需求弹性持续提升。刚性领 ...

Core Viewpoint - Service consumption is becoming a structural variable in China's economic growth, driven by the transformation of consumer demand from material to service-oriented, with a projected increase in per capita service consumption expenditure to 46.1% by 2025 [2] Group 1: Reasons for Service Consumption as a Key Driver - The combination of resident demand upgrades, economic structure transformation, and continuous policy support creates a robust foundation for service consumption [3] - The aging population and the growing number of young children in China are driving demand for essential services like elderly care and childcare, with the domestic housekeeping industry expected to create over 30 million jobs by 2024 [3] - Experience-based consumption in sectors like tourism and health is expected to generate significant economic activity, with leisure tourism revenue projected to reach 450 billion yuan during the 2025-2026 winter season [3] Group 2: Economic Structure and Trust - The service sector has become the largest industry in China's economy, with its unique non-standard nature influencing consumer behavior and market dynamics [4] - Establishing a unified service standard and a reliable credit system is essential for enhancing service quality and consumer trust, which are critical for unlocking potential demand [4] Group 3: Policy Support and Institutional Framework - The policy framework has shifted from merely stimulating demand to a dual focus on supply and demand collaboration, with significant improvements in areas like medical and educational market access [4] - By 2025, the sales of tax refund goods for outbound travelers are expected to increase by 95.9%, indicating a growing emphasis on enhancing consumer infrastructure [4] Group 4: Challenges and Opportunities - Despite rapid growth in service consumption, issues such as structural mismatches in supply and demand, quality concerns, and consumer confidence need to be addressed [5] - The integration of AI and big data in service consumption can help overcome challenges related to non-standard services, enhancing precision and efficiency in service delivery [5] Group 5: Modernization of Supply System - The modernization of the service supply system is crucial, focusing on making services affordable, accessible, and trustworthy [6] - Emphasizing the development of a professional workforce in essential service areas like elderly care and childcare is vital for meeting growing demand [6] Group 6: Institutional Improvement and Market Integration - The establishment of a unified national market can reduce transaction costs and facilitate the replication of quality services across regions [7] - Continuous efforts to optimize the business environment for private enterprises and enhance service standards are necessary for fostering a safe and fair consumption environment [7] Group 7: Open Cooperation and Trade Upgrading - Promoting high standards in service trade and enhancing cross-border payment systems can lower costs and improve efficiency in service consumption [8] - The focus on integrating regional economies and enhancing service resource collaboration can lead to improved supply efficiency and quality [8] Group 8: Focus on Livelihood and Essential Services - The aging population is shifting service consumption from optional to essential, creating stable demand for healthcare and related services [9] - Strengthening social security systems and expanding coverage can enhance consumer confidence and support service consumption growth [9] Group 9: Long-term Economic Growth - Service consumption is positioned as a new engine for economic growth, with significant potential for expansion and development [10] - The successful transformation of service consumption into a long-term economic driver depends on building a modern supply system that ensures quality, trust, and accessibility [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the Shanghai Municipal Party Committee's recommendations for the 15th Five-Year Plan, emphasizing the enhancement of high-quality tourism products, service optimization, and the development of inbound tourism and rural tourism [1][2]. Group 1: Tourism Development - The recommendations highlight the need to strengthen the supply of high-quality tourism products and innovate tourism formats [1]. - There is a focus on cultivating distinctive tourism experiences and optimizing ancient town and rural tourism [1]. Group 2: Economic Strategy - The plan emphasizes the implementation of a strategy to expand domestic demand, particularly in service consumption, including culture, tourism, sports, and health [1]. - It aims to enhance the integration of cultural, tourism, and commercial sectors, increasing the international influence of large consumer festivals and promoting night economy [1]. Group 3: Open Economy - The recommendations propose the construction of a new open economic system, supporting high-quality cooperation along the "Belt and Road" initiative [1]. - There is an emphasis on strengthening exchanges in technology, culture, and tourism with countries involved in the initiative [1]. Group 4: Sports and Culture - The recommendations call for the coordination of international top-tier events and the cultivation of domestic brand events, alongside the promotion of youth sports talent development [2]. - It also emphasizes the optimization of the cultural development ecosystem and the integration of cultural and commercial resources [2].

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Municipal Committee has released recommendations for the 15th Five-Year Plan, emphasizing the implementation of strategies to expand domestic demand and enhance consumption [1] Group 1: Consumption Strategies - The plan includes a continuation of special actions to boost consumption and the development of Shanghai as an international consumption center [1] - There is a focus on expanding service consumption, particularly in cultural, tourism, sports, and health sectors, to improve the quality of service supply [1] - The initiative promotes green and smart consumption, aiming to upgrade and expand product consumption [1] Group 2: Innovation and Integration - Encouragement for innovation in consumption models and formats, promoting the integration of online and offline consumption [1] - The plan supports the development of "AI + consumption," intellectual property derivative products, and interactive, immersive, and experiential consumption [1] - There is a push for the growth of the live-streaming economy and the deep integration of culture, tourism, commerce, and sports [1] Group 3: Economic Environment and Infrastructure - The recommendations include optimizing the consumption environment and advancing the construction of world-class business districts [1] - Development of distinctive commercial streets and enhancement of tax refund and cross-border payment convenience to increase inbound consumption [1] - The plan aims to create an all-age-friendly quality living circle to better match supply and demand in consumer goods, stimulating consumption potential among the elderly and youth [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Zhongti Industry's stock has shown a positive trend in early January 2025, with a price increase of 4.01% year-to-date and a market capitalization of 8.712 billion yuan [1] - As of January 12, 2025, Zhongti Industry's stock price reached 9.08 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 1.63 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 1.89% [1] - The company has a diverse business model, including event organization, sports marketing, and real estate, with the main revenue sources being sports services (43.75%), sports-related product sales (25.95%), and sports manufacturing (25.23%) [1] Group 2 - Zhongti Industry belongs to the social services sector, specifically in the sports industry, and is associated with concepts such as sports industry, ice and snow industry, and PPP [2] - As of September 30, 2025, Zhongti Industry reported a revenue of 1.244 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.95%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -21.0692 million yuan, a decrease of 190.96% [2] - The company has distributed a total of 613 million yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 44.8093 million yuan distributed in the last three years [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the implementation of the "Management Measures for the Construction and Management of Supporting Sports Facilities in New Residential Areas" in Guangxi, which aims to standardize and institutionalize the construction of sports facilities in new residential areas, enhancing public sports services and promoting a sports ecosystem for the community [1][3] Group 2 - The standardized construction of fitness facilities in new communities is expected to drive demand in related industries such as fitness equipment manufacturing, venue construction, and sports services, while also creating a broad market space for sports training, fitness guidance, and event operations [2] - The improvement of supporting fitness facilities will enhance community livability and promote healthy development in the surrounding real estate market, while also fostering diverse sports consumption needs and integrating sports with health, tourism, and elderly care industries [2] Group 3 - The implementation of the "Management Measures" will address the public's concern of "where to exercise," ensuring that new residential areas meet the standards for public fitness facilities, thus guaranteeing access to quality fitness services for residents [3] - By 2025, the per capita sports venue area in Guangxi is expected to increase to 2.93 square meters, exceeding the target of 2.6 square meters set in the 14th Five-Year Plan, achieving a completion rate of 12.69% [3] - The standardized construction of sports facilities will benefit residents of all ages and fitness needs, improving health literacy and reducing healthcare costs, thereby supporting the goal of a moderately prosperous society [3] Group 4 - Guangxi will leverage the implementation of the "Management Measures" to strengthen inter-departmental regulatory collaboration and encourage local exploration of a "co-construction, shared management, and common use" model to enhance the public sports service system [4]

中国经常参加体育锻炼的人数比例达38.52% ——"15分钟健身圈"基本实现。90.4%的19岁及以上居民反映在步行或骑车15分钟范围内有体育场地设施，较2020年提高9.7个百分点。 ——人均体育消费水平持续增高。19—59岁居民人均体育消费达2428元，60岁及以上居民为1451元，均较2020年显著增长。消费类型中，服务型体育消费占 比提升至48.5%，体育消费从装备购买向参与体验、观赏赛事等方向转型。 ——基层体育组织与赛事活动蓬勃发展。19岁及以上居民中，39.4%参加过体育健身组织，较2020年提高5.0个百分点；45.1%参加过群众体育赛事活动，较 2020年提高9.3个百分点。 中新网12月29日电 记者29日从国家体育总局科研所了解到，日前，《2025年全民健身活动状况调查公报》正式发布。调查公报指出，我国全民健身参与规 模持续扩大，经常参加体育锻炼的人数比例达38.52%。 本次调查于2025年1月至8月开展，覆盖全国31个省(区、市)的500个县(市、区、旗)、6500个村(居)委会，共计调查有效样本141145人，涵盖3岁及以上各年龄 段常住人口，按年龄划分为3—6岁幼儿、7—18岁儿 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 2026 China International Service Trade Fair (CIFTIS) will be held from September 9 to 13, 2026, at Shougang Park, with participation from over 10 countries and international organizations, including major global companies [1][2]. Group 1: Event Details - The CIFTIS has been held annually since its inception in 2012, successfully hosting 12 editions and attracting 1.47 million exhibitors and visitors from nearly 200 countries and regions [1]. - Starting in 2025, the fair will be fixed to the second week of September each year, maintaining a five-day duration [1]. - Shougang Park is undergoing upgrades to become a permanent venue for the fair, transforming into a multifunctional "exhibition town" by September 2024 [1]. Group 2: Participation and Exhibits - The 2026 fair will feature high-profile global service trade summits, inviting foreign dignitaries, international organization leaders, and CEOs of multinational companies to speak [1][2]. - The event will include specialized exhibitions focusing on key service trade sectors such as financial services, cultural tourism, education, and sports, showcasing new technologies and applications in the service industry [2]. - A new "Overseas Zone" and a small and medium-sized enterprise (SME) exhibition area will be introduced, highlighting China's service and technology exports [2].

Core Viewpoint - The "National Subsidy" policy has significantly boosted consumption, benefiting over 360 million consumers and generating over 2.5 trillion yuan in consumption from January to November 2025 [1]. Group 1: Policy Impact - The "National Subsidy" has led to substantial exchanges, including over 11.2 million old cars, 12.844 million old home appliances, and 9.015 million digital products [1]. - The official deadline for the 2025 "National Subsidy" is set for the end of this month, with no extensions or additional budgets available once the funds are exhausted [1][2]. Group 2: Future Expectations - The "National Subsidy" policy is expected to continue into 2026, with potential adjustments to its core rules [3][6]. - The funding for the "National Subsidy" increased from 150 billion yuan in 2024 to 300 billion yuan in 2025, with expectations for a slight increase or maintenance of this scale in 2026 [8][9]. Group 3: Changes in Subsidy Categories - The 2025 policy expanded to include three new digital product categories and four new home appliance categories, indicating a shift towards more diverse consumer goods [13]. - Future policies may focus more on service consumption, targeting areas such as cultural tourism, sports, and health care, while also emphasizing green and smart products [13][14]. Group 4: Regulatory Adjustments - Due to issues like scalping and fraudulent transactions in 2025, the 2026 "National Subsidy" may implement stricter eligibility criteria and smarter regulatory measures to ensure funds reach genuine consumers [16].

Group 1 - The potential for national income doubling is expected to open a "golden decade" for new consumption development, with a theoretical target of nearly doubling per capita GDP by 2035, from $13,300 in 2024 to approximately $20,000 [16][17][33] - The growth of the middle-income group is crucial for driving consumption, with a target of over 800 million middle-income individuals in the next 15 years, which will significantly influence the scale and quality of domestic consumption [42][49] - The report emphasizes the importance of promoting common prosperity to activate domestic consumption potential, highlighting that increasing the income of low-income groups can effectively convert new income into consumption [20][23][49] Group 2 - The beauty and personal care sector is expected to see growth driven by new materials in the medical beauty segment, with companies like Lepu Medical focusing on innovative materials that fill market gaps [4][5][15] - The beauty industry is entering a low-growth phase, where brand group operations and market share enhancement will be critical for sustainable growth, with companies like Mao Ge Ping and Shangmei Holdings being highlighted for their potential [4][5][15] - The pet care market is experiencing both consumption upgrades and intensified competition, with a focus on high-end, health-oriented products [4][5][15] Group 3 - The service consumption sector, particularly tourism and sports, is expected to benefit from policy encouragement, with companies like Sanxia Tourism and Lansi Co. being recommended for investment [4][5][15] - The report notes that the tourism sector is poised for growth due to increased interest in flexible vacations and the aging population, which is expected to drive demand for river cruises [4][5][15] - The sports service sector is highlighted as a core growth area, with event-driven economic activities expected to boost related industries [4][5][15] Group 4 - The IP and trendy toy market is entering a new phase with a surge in supply, and companies like Pop Mart are expected to maintain their leading positions through effective IP management [4][5][15] - The report indicates that the emergence of new designers and retail platforms is likely to sustain high demand for IP products, with a focus on companies that can effectively monetize potential IP [4][5][15] Group 5 - The gold and jewelry sector is facing short-term demand pressure due to tax reforms and seasonal fluctuations, with a focus on brands that can maintain pricing power amid these changes [5][15]