Inflation Data Summary - The U.S. July 2025 CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, meeting expectations, while the year-on-year increase was 2.7%, slightly below the expected 2.8%[2] - The core CPI for July rose by 0.3% month-on-month, matching expectations, and recorded a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, exceeding the expected 3.0%[2] Core CPI Insights - The core CPI's month-on-month increase was driven by medical services (0.8%) and transportation services (0.8%), while core goods remained flat at 0.2%[2] - Year-on-year, core goods CPI rose significantly from 0.6% to 1.1%, marking the highest level since June 2023[2] Service Inflation Factors - Service inflation may be indirectly influenced by tariffs, as rising operational costs could lead businesses to increase service prices[2] - Notably, airfares saw a significant month-on-month increase of 4% in July, reflecting heightened service demand[2] Federal Reserve Implications - The July CPI data supports a 96.4% probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with a 51.5% chance of three cumulative cuts by December[2] - Despite the potential for rate cuts, inflation risks remain, particularly with service inflation pressures and tariffs still in play[2] Market Reactions - Following the CPI data release, the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 4 basis points to 3.72%, while the 10-year yield rose by 2 basis points to 4.29%[2] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices reached record closing highs, indicating increased market risk appetite[2] Risk Considerations - There is high uncertainty regarding U.S. tariff policies and their impact on inflation, alongside potential economic downturns and unexpected Fed rate cuts[8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The USDA's reduction in the production forecast and ending stocks for US cotton in the 2025/2026 season led to a 2.39% overnight increase in US cotton prices, closing at 68.44 cents per pound on ICE. The Zhengzhou cotton main contract 2601 rose 1.8%, closing at 14,130 yuan per ton, up 250 yuan from the previous trading day. Future attention should be paid to the marginal impacts of tariffs, the Fed's rate - cut pace, and domestic policy trends. Globally, the total cotton production is expected to decrease, while consumption is slightly reduced, and ending stocks are significantly down. Domestically, the cotton de - stocking trend is good, new cotton may have a good harvest this year, but the demand remains weak, limiting the upward space for Zhengzhou cotton [1][2][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Overview - The Zhengzhou cotton main contract 2601 rose 1.8%, closing at 14,130 yuan per ton, up 250 yuan from the previous trading day. The USDA's reduction in the production forecast and ending stocks for US cotton in the 2025/2026 season led to a 2.39% overnight increase in US cotton prices, closing at 68.44 cents per pound on ICE. Future attention should be paid to the marginal impacts of tariffs, the Fed's rate - cut pace, and domestic policy trends [1][2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On August 13, 2025, the total cotton warehouse receipts in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were 8,287 (-82) sheets, including 8,006 (-81) registered warehouse receipts and 281 (-1) valid forecasts [3]. - In mid - August, the average temperature in southern and eastern Xinjiang was higher, while in other areas it was slightly lower. Precipitation was higher in the western parts of northern and southern Xinjiang and lower in other areas. The meteorological conditions in mid - August were favorable for agricultural and livestock production, but the previous high - temperature weather was unfavorable for cotton boll growth [4]. - As of August 10, the national budding rate in the US was 93%, 2 percentage points behind last year and 1 percentage point behind the five - year average [4]. - The USDA's August supply - demand report showed that the expected US cotton yield in 2025/2026 was 862 pounds per acre, up 53 pounds from the July forecast; production was expected to be 2.88 million tons, down 300,000 tons from July; and ending stocks were expected to be 780,000 tons, down 220,000 tons from July [4]. - Globally, the expected total cotton production in this season is 25.392 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 391,000 tons or 1.5%; consumption is expected to be 25.688 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 30,000 tons or 0.1%; and ending stocks are 16.093 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 742,000 tons or 4.4% [4]. - In July 2025, the China Cotton Textile Industry Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 35.71%, a decrease of 12 percentage points from the previous month [5]. 3.3 Data Charts - The report includes charts on CZCE and ICE cotton futures prices, cotton spot prices and basis, 9 - 1 spread, textile profit, cotton import profit,棉纱 import profit, warehouse receipt quantity, and non - commercial positions [6][8][12][17]. 3.4 Analysis and Strategy - Internationally, the Sino - US Stockholm economic and trade talks jointly announced that the 24% tariff would be suspended again for 90 days from August 12, 2025. The USDA's August supply - demand report was positive for cotton prices, leading to a rise in US cotton. Domestically, the cotton de - stocking trend is good, new cotton may have a good harvest this year, but the demand remains weak, limiting the upward space for Zhengzhou cotton [18].

. 美国7月CPI年率持平于2.7%强化9月降息预期（概率超93%）支撑金价，但核心CPI升至3.1%凸显通胀粘性潜在压制；美国债务总额首破37万亿美元加剧债务风险，叠加 特朗普施压美联储降息提振黄金货币属性；中美关税休战延期90天缓和避险情绪，而俄美领导人会晤临近或扰动地缘风险溢价；此前关税政策乌龙引发COMEX溢价波 动，国内现货需求减弱迹象显现，短期金价震荡偏强但需警惕情绪退潮风险。 SHFE金银期货主连价格. source： Wind 元/克 SHFE黄金 SHFE白银(右轴) 元/千克 24/04 24/08 24/12 25/04 500 600 700 800 900 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 COMEX黄金与金银比. source： wind 美元/盎司 COMEX黄金价格 COMEX金银比价(右轴) 24/04 24/08 24/12 25/04 2000 2500 3000 3500 70 80 90 100 110 120 贵金属有色金属产业日报 2025/08/13 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审 ...

#报告 法兴银行：美国物价所反映的关税信息；一个微小细节可能成为未来中美谈判中争议点。None (@None):None ...

贵金属产业日报 2025-08-13 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价(日,元/克) | 777.72 | 1.68 沪银主力合约收盘价(日,元/千克) | 9300 | 113 | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) | 201477 | -3259 主力合约持仓量:沪银(日,手) | 365333 | 16210 | | | 沪金主力前20名净持仓(日,手) | 165867 | -6005 沪银主力前20名净持仓(日,手) | 117755 | -649 | | | 仓单数量:黄金(日,千克) | 36045 | 0 仓单数量:白银(日,千克) | 1135098 | -16111 | | 现货市场 | 上海有色网黄金现货价(日,元/克) | 773.7 | -0.3 上海有色网白银现货价(日,元/千克) | 9200 | 66 | | | 沪金主力合约基差(日,元/克) | -4.02 | -1.98 沪银主力合约基差(日,元/千克) | ...

#报告 TS Lombard全球宏观月报：警惕关税驱动的增长放缓。 https://t.co/jQosNWmI9CNone (@None):None ...

高盛经济学家上周日发布报告预计，到10月，美国消费者承担的关税成本比例会从6月的22%升至67%。特朗普本周二发帖称，关税没有给消费者带来通 胀问题，在大多数情况下，甚至没有支付这些关税；高盛CEO却拒绝认可这些，他应该找个新的经济学家，高盛很久以前就错误预测了市场反应和关 税。 美东时间8月12日周二，特朗普在社交媒体发帖，指责高盛对关税政策的市场影响和消费者成本做出"错误预测"，而且点名嘲讽苏德巍，叫他不如改 行，专心做自己的爱好，当个DJ就好。 特朗普发帖抨击两天前，高盛经济学家团队8月10日上周日刚刚与发布一份研究报告，称美国消费者将承担关税成本的大部分负担。据追风交易台的报 道，截至6月，美国消费者承担了22%的关税成本，但如果最新关税遵循往年征收模式，预计到10月，消费者的承担比例将升至67%。 特朗普本周二在旗下社交媒体平台上写道："我认为David（苏德巍）应该出去给自己找个新经济学家，或者，也许他应该专心当DJ，不要再费心经营大 型金融机构了。" 这一评论直接嘲讽了苏德巍长期的DJ爱好。高盛的发言人拒绝就此置评。 高盛报告预计到10月消费者承担关税成本大幅升至67% 高盛首席经济学家Jan ...

宏观经济点评 美联储 9 月或降息 25bp，但后续降息次数可能有限 ——美国 7 月 CPI 点评 | 何宁（分析师） | 潘纬桢（分析师） | | --- | --- | | hening@kysec.cn | panweizhen@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790522110002 | 证书编号：S0790524040006 | 事件：美国公布 2025 年 7 月最新通胀数据。其中 CPI 同比上升 2.7%，环比上 升 0.2%，同比增速不及市场预期；核心 CPI 同比上升 3.1%，环比上升 0.3%， 同比增速超市场预期。 通胀相对平稳，核心通胀略超预期，关税冲击正在体现 1. 总体通胀相对平稳，核心通胀同比增速超市场预期。美国 7 月 CPI 同比上升 2.7%，环比上升 0.2%，表现相对平稳；核心 CPI 同比上涨 3.1%，环比上升 0.3%，出现不同程度反弹。总的看，美国通胀总体未再回升，但核心通胀同比 增速较 6 月有一定反弹，且相对超市场预期，或显示关税对美国通胀的冲击正 在体现，且影响力度较大。往后看，由于 2024 年基数相对较低，通胀水平或将 继续反弹，需观察美 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the continuation of tariff suspensions between China and the U.S., alongside a rebound in U.S. core inflation [1][5][6] - The U.S. July CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations, while core inflation accelerated to 3.1% [1][5] - U.S. tariff revenue reached a record high in July at $28 billion, but this did not prevent the budget deficit from widening to $291 billion, indicating ongoing fiscal challenges for the federal government [1][5] Group 2 - Lithium carbonate supply is affected by mining permit delays, with Chile's lithium salt exports increasing by 40% month-on-month in July 2025 [2][23] - The weekly lithium carbonate production decreased by 1,362 tons to 17,268 tons, with an expected supply increase of 3% in August [2][23] - The short-term focus remains on inventory levels, particularly in overseas mines, with potential risks from supply-side fluctuations [2][23] Group 3 - The dual焦 (coke) market showed narrow fluctuations, with coal production decreasing, reflecting supply-side adjustments [3][24] - Despite expectations of production cuts in steel and coke plants, low steel inventory levels may support overall valuations [3][24] - The current macroeconomic policies are expected to provide support, but caution is advised regarding the impact of basis and price spreads on market movements [3][24] Group 4 - The soybean market is positively influenced by the U.S. Department of Agriculture's crop report, showing a good condition rating of 68% for soybeans [4][26] - The suspension of tariffs between China and the U.S. is expected to improve the export outlook for U.S. soybeans, leading to a rebound in prices [4][26] - The preliminary anti-dumping ruling on Canadian canola seeds has led to an increase in canola meal prices [4][26] Group 5 - The international shipping index for Europe showed a decline, with Maersk's new pricing strategy impacting market rates [30] - The current shipping rates are under pressure, with expectations of further declines as other shipping companies may follow suit [30]

2025.08. 13 本文字数：915，阅读时长大约1.5分钟 作者 | 第一财经 胡弋杰 当地时间8月12日，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体"真实社交"（Truth Social）发文，点名高盛集团 首席执行官大卫·所罗门（David Solomon），称其应"去找一位新的经济学家"，并讽刺所罗门 应"专注做DJ"，而不是经营一家大型金融机构。所罗门曾以"DJ D-Sol"的艺名在派对和音乐节担 任DJ。 特朗普称，关税为美国带来数万亿美元收入，并未引发通胀或对经济造成其他损害，"主要是由企业 和政府——其中很多是外国政府——在买单"。他批评高盛未能承认这一事实，认为该行早前关于市 场反应和关税效应的判断"完全错误"。 当地时间8月12日，美国劳工统计局公布的数据显示，7月消费者价格指数（CPI）环比上涨0.2%， 符合预期，较6月的0.3%有所放缓；同比涨幅2.7%，与上月持平。剔除食品与能源的核心CPI环比 升0.3%，创1月以来最大涨幅，同比升至3.1%，高于6月的2.9%。 因7月通胀数据强化投资者对美联储下月降息的押注，标普500指数和纳指双双创下收盘纪录新高。 高盛首席经济学家简·哈祖斯（Jan H ...