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市场需求疲软猪价6月先跌后涨 三季度养殖盈利有望环比增加
Core Viewpoint - The domestic pig market is experiencing fluctuations, with prices showing a recent rebound after a period of decline, but overall demand remains weak, leading to concerns about future price stability [1][3][5] Group 1: Market Trends - As of June 23, the main contract for live pig futures reached 13,975 yuan/ton, up nearly 5% from the low of 13,350 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month [1] - The overall price of live pigs has been on a downward trend since the third quarter of 2024, currently at relatively low levels [1] - The average price of live pigs nationwide rose to 14.22 yuan/kg by June 20, following a drop to 13.94 yuan/kg on June 9 [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The demand for live pigs has weakened, leading to an oversupply situation that has caused prices to drop significantly [1][3] - The average trading price for 7 kg piglets in Hunan fell to 460 yuan/head by June 19, a decrease of 85 yuan/head or 15.6% since early May [2] - The increase in feed costs, particularly for corn and soybean meal, has further pressured the profitability of pig farming [3] Group 3: Profitability and Cost Analysis - As of June 19, the average profit for self-breeding pigs was 137.93 yuan/head, down 66.12 yuan/head from early April, while the profit for piglets was 153.42 yuan/head, down 151.05 yuan/head [3] - The average feed cost for self-breeding pigs was 934.88 yuan, and for piglet fattening, it was 889.94 yuan, both showing increases from early April [3] Group 4: Slaughtering Trends - The daily slaughter volume for sample enterprises remained stable, with a range between 165,000 to 186,000 heads, influenced by increased supply and the profitability of fresh meat segmentation [4] - The average gross profit per head for slaughtering was 28.56 yuan, up 222.38% compared to the same period last year [4] Group 5: Future Outlook - The market is expected to face continued downward pressure on prices due to increased slaughtering rates and weak demand, although there are signs of improved market sentiment [5] - The third quarter may see a seasonal decline in pig stocks, potentially supporting higher average prices compared to the second quarter [4]
广发期货《农产品》日报-20250623
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-06-23 03:26
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年6月23日 朱迪 Z0015979 | | | 柏类产业期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年6月23日 | | | | 朱迪 | Z0015979 | | | 直相 | | | | | | | | | | 现值 | 前值 | 旅跌 | 涨跌幅 | | | 现价 | 江苏豆粕 | 2940 | 2940 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 期价 | M2509 | 3067 | 3077 | -10 | -0.32% | | | 基産 | M2509 | -127 | -137 | 10 | 7.30% | | | 现货基差报价 | 广东现货墓差 | m2509-140 | m2509-150 | - | - | | | 盘面进口榨利 | 美湾6月船期 | - | - | - | - | | | 盘面进口榨利 | 巴西8月船期 | 188 | 161 | 27 | 16.8% | | | 仓車 | | ...
《农产品》日报-20250623
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-06-23 01:41
| | | 柏类产业期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年6月23日 | | | | 朱迪 | Z0015979 | | | 直相 | | | | | | | | | | 现值 | 前值 | 旅跌 | 涨跌幅 | | | 现价 | 江苏豆粕 | 2940 | 2940 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 期价 | M2509 | 3067 | 3077 | -10 | -0.32% | | | 基産 | M2509 | -127 | -137 | 10 | 7.30% | | | 现货基差报价 | 广东现货墓差 | m2509-140 | m2509-150 | - | - | | | 盘面进口榨利 | 美湾6月船期 | - | - | - | - | | | 盘面进口榨利 | 巴西8月船期 | 188 | 161 | 27 | 16.8% | | | 仓車 | | 26001 | 26001 | 0 | 0.0% | | | 来相 | | | | | | | ...
村民和养殖企业把溶洞当垃圾场(来信调查)
Ren Min Ri Bao· 2025-06-22 22:10
湖南慈利县东岳观镇彩球村大田坑溶洞外景。 今年3月,湖南省张家界市慈利县溇水长潭河段发生水华现象,当地居民自发寻找污染源,揭露慈利县 部分岩溶洞穴遭人为排污的问题。 接到村民来信,记者近日赴慈利县调查了解到,当地在溶洞生态管理方面存在监管短板,一些村民和养 殖企业环保意识淡薄,长期向溶洞倾倒垃圾或污水。 截至6月15日17时,慈利县共摸排岩溶洞穴2079个,发现部分岩溶洞穴存在疑似污染物。目前,溶洞污 染的清理工作正在推进,但还面临专业人员紧缺、作业难度较大等困难。当地群众呼吁健全监管机制、 大田坑溶洞里,发现村民丢弃的垃圾。 以上图片均为本报记者申智林摄 补齐政策短板、强化源头治理,防止溶洞成为监管盲区。 一些村民将溶洞作为垃圾填埋场 网友曝光的受污染溶洞主要有两个,分别为东岳观镇彩球村九组的大田坑溶洞和通津铺镇长峪铺村十五 组的杨家坡溶洞。据慈利县通报,前者深约70米,直径约15米,洞内有陈年垃圾;后者深约150米,最 窄处直径约1.5米,洞内有陈年垃圾和污水。 6月9日,记者从地面俯视大田坑溶洞,依然可见塑料包装袋、破旧布料等垃圾。村民黄先生住所离大田 坑溶洞仅约200米。2010年,村里修建了一条到溶 ...
国信期货生猪周报:均重继续下降,盘面震荡偏强-20250620
Guo Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-20 11:14
研究所 均重继续下降 盘面震荡偏强 ——国信期货生猪周报 2025年06月20日 研究所 1 周度分析与展望 目 录 2 关键数据与图表 CONTENTS 周度分析与展望 研究所 过去一周生猪现货稳中反弹,期货震荡偏强,基差震荡走弱,LH9-LH11价差震荡偏强,现货受养殖端扛价支撑,同时均重指 标继续下降及二育明显收缩,给旺季合约LH09提供了较强的支撑。基本面来看,能繁母猪4、5月环比增加明显继续对LH2603 合约形成压制,中短期来看,1月-5月样本仔猪出生数量逐月环比增加,意味着后期理论出栏量将继续保持增长趋势。消费来 看,目前仍是消费淡季,整体需求支撑有限,预计现货短期震荡偏弱运行;期货而言,LH09合约对应消费旺季,尽管后期理 论出栏量仍在增加,但鉴于政策引导企业降均重及限制二育流向的销售,这意味着后期出栏均重或偏低,将部分减轻出栏数量 的压力,盘面下方有暂时一定支撑,后期继续关注降均重节奏。操作上,震荡偏强对待。 免责声明:本报告以投资者教育为目的,不构成任何投资建议 数据来源:WIND, 国信期货 4 3 1.生猪期货行情 研究所 免责声明:本报告以投资者教育为目的,不构成任何投资建议 2.生 ...
水产养殖旺季来临 菜籽粕饲用需求提升
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-06-20 09:38
规格 报价 报价类型 交货地 交易商 压榨类型:200型;粗蛋白含量%≥:36;用途:饲用; 2630元/吨 市场价 天津 天津市场 压榨类型:200型;粗蛋白含量%≥:36;用途:饲用; 2590元/吨 市场价 福建省/厦门市 福建厦门市场 压榨类型:200型;粗蛋白含量%≥:36;用途:饲用; 2810元/吨 市场价 辽宁省/营口市 辽宁营口市场 压榨类型:200型;粗蛋白含量%≥:36;用途:饲用; 2570元/吨 市场价 湖北省/荆州市 湖北荆州市场 压榨类型:200型;粗蛋白含量%≥:36;用途:饲用; 2530元/吨 市场价 江苏省/南通市 江苏南通市场 期货市场上看,6月20日收盘,菜籽粕期货主力合约报2679.00元/吨,跌幅0.07%,最高触及2696.00元/ 吨,最低下探2667.00元/吨,日内成交量达264257手。 本周四(6月19日),国内菜籽粕现货报价持平。据监测,东莞菜粕报价持平为2570元/吨。 (6月20日)今日全国菜籽粕价格一览表 【市场资讯】 加拿大谷物委员会发布的数据显示,截至6月15日当周,加拿大油菜籽出口量较前周减少17.05%至13.14 万吨。 6月20日, ...
“与同行有差距”,新希望全力降本
Group 1 - The core focus of the company is to improve its pig farming operations and reduce costs to compete with leading peers in the industry [1][6] - The company aims to lower its pig farming cost to below 13 yuan per kilogram, with a target for excellent operations to reach below 12 yuan per kilogram by the end of the year [6][8] - The company has a significant pig output scale of over 15 million heads, which highlights the importance of cost reduction for improving operational performance [6][10] Group 2 - The company’s pig farming gross margin is currently at 9.97%, which is significantly lower than its competitors, such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, whose margins are around 19.21% and 20.3% respectively [2][3] - The company has implemented measures to enhance management of fattening pig farms and improve genetic traits to address long-term issues [3][4] - The company’s revenue sources are primarily from feed business (over 66%) and pig farming (around 30%), with the latter being highly sensitive to price fluctuations [8][9] Group 3 - The company has undergone a leadership change, with a new president appointed to focus on strategic adjustments and long-term growth [7] - The company’s profitability has been significantly affected by the volatility of pig prices, with gross margins swinging from 38.5% in high-price periods to -21.2% during downturns [8][9] - The company expects improved profitability in its pig farming segment this year due to the cessation of previous operational shutdowns and enhancements in disease prevention measures [10]
首个绿氮水产活菌站落地江苏如东,助力南美白对虾绿色养殖
Jiang Nan Shi Bao· 2025-06-20 07:10
Core Viewpoint - The introduction of the "Green Nitrogen Aquaculture Live Bacteria Station" in Jiangsu's Rudong marks a significant shift towards a green revolution in the South American white shrimp farming industry, emphasizing the benefits of on-site production of high-activity live bacteria for improved shrimp health and water quality [1][3]. Industry Status and Challenges - Rudong has become a national hub for South American white shrimp farming, with over 124,000 acres of farming area, an annual production of 12 billion shrimp fry, and a total output of approximately 140,000 tons, generating an annual output value of 5 billion yuan [2]. - The industry faces challenges such as frequent diseases due to high-density farming, leading to lower survival rates and increased reliance on medications, which raises costs and affects product quality [2]. - Strict environmental regulations on wastewater discharge have put pressure on farmers, making wastewater treatment a key factor for sustainable development [2]. - Market volatility has resulted in low shrimp prices in 2024, causing farmers to struggle with high input costs and limited sales channels, forcing some to sell at lower prices [2]. Breakthroughs Achieved - The establishment of the live bacteria station represents three major breakthroughs: - **Technical Breakthrough**: The on-site smart live bacteria station reduces circulation costs and active loss, lowering the comprehensive cost of bacteria for shrimp farming by over 30% [3]. - **Prevention and Control Breakthrough**: The application of DME bacillus and lactic acid bacteria significantly improves water quality and reduces the incidence of diseases like enteritis by 50%, enhancing shrimp survival rates [3]. - **Model Breakthrough**: The "freshly made and used" micro-ecological application model supports the production of high-quality shrimp without antibiotics, targeting high-end markets [3]. Future Outlook - The integration of microbial technology and smart equipment is expected to drive a green transformation in shrimp farming, shifting from traditional methods to technology-driven practices that proactively prevent diseases and reduce reliance on medications [4]. - The "Rudong model" is anticipated to provide a replicable and promotable example for the high-quality development of the national aquaculture industry, leveraging technology to enhance quality and green income [5]. - The company plans to expand the live bacteria stations to other major aquaculture regions in Guangdong, Guangxi, and Shandong, benefiting local farmers and improving ecological conditions [5].
《农产品》日报-20250620
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-06-20 02:15
| | | 油脂产业期现日报 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年6月20日 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 王凌辉 Z0019938 | | | | | | | 员知 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 6月19日 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 6月18日 张跃 张跌幅 | | | | | | | | 现价 | 江苏一级 | | 8400 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 8350 50 0.60% | | ...
草原牧民为啥负债累累?
Sou Hu Wang· 2025-06-19 09:25
Group 1 - The article highlights the increasing debt burden on herders in Inner Mongolia due to rising bank loans despite stable livestock numbers, leading to financial distress as beef prices decline [1][3][10] - A significant majority of herders, over 90%, are reported to be in debt, with loans escalating from initial amounts to hundreds of thousands of yuan as they attempt to expand their herds [2][3][4] - The beef industry in China has seen a dramatic shift, with consumption rising sharply since 2012, leading to increased prices and a surge in capital investment, but this has not translated into sustainable profits for herders [6][8][22] Group 2 - The cost of raising cattle has increased significantly, with feed prices rising from 1500 yuan per ton to 2000 yuan, while the average loss per head of cattle has reached over 1600 yuan [11][12][22] - Herders face challenges in selling their cattle due to competition from larger, more efficient operations and imported beef, which has captured a significant market share [19][22][24] - The market is plagued by issues such as counterfeit products and poor-quality meat being sold as authentic Mongolian beef, further complicating the sales landscape for herders [27][29][30] Group 3 - The article suggests a need for modernization in the livestock industry, advocating for a shift from traditional grazing to more standardized and cooperative farming practices to improve resilience against market fluctuations [30][32] - There are ongoing efforts from both the government and private sectors to address market chaos and support herders, including initiatives to create direct sales channels and enhance product quality [32][33]