AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 据道琼斯市场数据，11月通常是美股表现较好的月份——回顾25年的数据，标普500指数11月平均上涨 2.2%。 然而，本月的市场绝非一帆风顺。尽管股市重启反弹，但本月标普500指数仍有可能录得下跌，并有望 创下2008年以来表现最差的11月表现（当年该指数下跌约7.5%）。 音频由扣子空间生成 自11月以来，美股一直处于悬崖边缘，日内极易出现大幅波动，交易员时而看涨、时而看空——有时甚 至在同一天内转变立场。 市场将此归咎于对股市高估值（尤其是AI板块）的阶段性担忧。然而，利率在依赖债务融资的AI投资 热潮中所扮演的角色，也已成为市场叙事的重要组成部分。 这或许可以解释，为何英伟达上周公布强劲季度财报后，仅暂时安抚了投资者情绪，此后随着市场注意 力转向了美联储在12月9日至10日政策会议上的利率决策，股市再度陷入抛售。 直到上周五纽约联储主席威廉姆斯表态支持进一步降息，美股才启动反弹行情，周二美股多数收涨，但 本月仍有望录得月度下跌。 "每个月都愈发清晰的是，利率、AI板块、经济与股市牛市之间的关联性已密不可分，"Steward Partners 旗下Plaza Advi ...

Core Viewpoint - European Central Bank (ECB) officials express a relaxed attitude towards price pressures in the Eurozone, indicating a low willingness for further interest rate actions [1][2]. Group 1: ECB Officials' Perspectives - Madis Müller, a member of the ECB Governing Council, suggests that inflation rates are likely to remain close to 2% in the foreseeable future, aligning current monetary policy with the economic cycle and inflation outlook [1]. - Müller acknowledges the need for vigilance due to past economic shocks that have disrupted macroeconomic forecasts, including the impacts of the pandemic and war on prices [1]. - Austrian Central Bank Governor Martin Koch supports a cautious approach, emphasizing the importance of being alert to structural changes in the labor market and energy transition that could affect inflation and deflation [2][3]. Group 2: Current Monetary Policy Stance - The ECB has reduced interest rates by 200 basis points to 2% during the current easing cycle but has maintained rates steady in the last three policy meetings [1]. - Koch states that the current monetary policy position appears satisfactory, suggesting a wait-and-see approach [3].

Rick Santelli with the Bond Report. Rick, it appears that uh John Williams may have saved Christmas. >> Well, I'm not sure about that.It certainly seems to me like there's a lot of other moving parts here, but it definitely moved the probabilities on the ease and the probabilities have gone from basically 30% up into the close to 70 and it's backed off but right under 70%. But I think the real story is h how the interest rate complex is shadow boxing uh the equity side and mostly when it goes higher. Now if ...

白宫内对此意见也不统一。 商务部长卢特尼克就"更倾向于解雇鲍威尔"，而财长贝森特则竭力劝阻。 这种内部分歧让局面更加复杂。 特朗普曾希望贝森特本人接任美联储主席，但贝森特因偏好现有职位而拒绝了。 这一切都围绕着同一个核心：特朗普试图通过政治力量影响货币政策，这 严重挑战了美联储的独立性传统。 央行独立性被认为是维持货币政策稳定和市场信心的基石。 更让美联储头疼的是经济数据"打架"。 刚公布的9月非农新增就业11.9万人，比市场预期的5万人高出一大截，看起来挺火热的。 同时失业率却从4.3%升到 了4.4%。 而且7月和8月的前值还被大幅下修了3.3万人。 这就像一个人一边说"我吃得特别多"，一边体重却在往下掉，让人搞不清真实状况。 雪上加霜的是数据"断粮"了。 因为之前的政府停摆，原本该公布的10月份非农数据，被推迟到12月美联储议息会议之后才能出来。 这意味着美联储下次开 会决定利率时，关键参考数据是缺失的，几乎等于"盲猜"。 克利夫兰联储主席哈玛克就直言，担心降息会偏离控制通胀的目标。 而美联储理事沃勒则持不 同看法，他更担忧就业市场持续放缓的风险，因此主张12月应继续降息。 这么一来，市场也懵了。 芝商 ...

新华财经北京11月21日电美联储官员柯林斯表示，目前维持利率稳定是"适当的"，因为通胀可能在一段 时间内保持高位。她补充称，劳动力市场似乎在降温，但降速并不快。柯林斯表示："如果我看到劳动 力市场明显恶化的迹象，我会非常重视，这确实可能为近期进一步宽松提供理由，但我们尚未看到失业 率出现显著变化。"她还表示，美联储当前的政策设置"是在平衡劳动力市场方面的风险与持续存在的通 胀相关风险。" （文章来源：新华财经） ...

Group 1: Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report - The report presents the latest values, changes from the previous day, historical 1 - year and all - time percentiles of various stock index futures spreads on November 21, 2025, including IF, IH, IC, and IM futures' term - to - term spreads and cross - variety ratios [1]. - For example, the IF term - to - term spread of the next - month minus the current - month is - 18.80, with a change of - 0.60 from the previous day, and historical 1 - year and all - time percentiles of 20.90% and 24.10% respectively [1]. - The cross - variety ratios such as CSI 500/CSI 300, IC/IF, etc. are also provided, along with their changes and percentiles [1]. Group 2: Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report - On November 21, 2025, the report shows the IRR, latest values, changes from the previous trading day, and percentiles since listing of different treasury bond futures, including TS, TF, T, and TL [2]. - It details the term - to - term spreads of different treasury bond futures, like the TS term - to - term spread of the current - season minus the next - season is 0.0420, with a change of - 0.0080 from the previous day and a percentile of 31.90% since listing [2]. - Cross - variety spreads between different treasury bond futures are also presented, such as TS - TF with a value of - 3.4730, a change of - 0.0550, and a percentile of 9.60% since listing [2]. Group 3: Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report - On November 21, 2025, the report provides domestic and foreign futures closing prices, spot prices, basis, ratios, interest rates, exchange rates, inventory, and positions of precious metals [3]. - For example, the AU2512 contract's domestic futures closing price on November 20 was 932.56, down 4.44 from the previous day, with a decline of - 0.47% [3]. - The basis, such as gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract, is - 2.56, with a change of 0.16 from the previous value and a historical 1 - year percentile of 53.40% [3]. Group 4: Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report - On November 22, 2025, the report shows container shipping indices, futures prices, basis, and fundamental data [5]. - The SCFIS (European route) settlement price index on November 17 was 1357.67, down 147.1 from November 10, with a decline of - 9.78% [5]. - Fundamental data includes global container shipping capacity supply, port on - time rates, port calls, monthly export amounts, and overseas economic indicators [5].

Economic Data and Federal Reserve Outlook - The September labor report is viewed positively, indicating a rise in the unemployment rate due to more individuals re-entering the labor force, with approximately 475,000 people coming back [2] - The report suggests that while there may be some softening in the labor market, it is not experiencing a significant downturn, which supports the Federal Reserve's current stance [3] - Market reactions show a decrease in the probability of an immediate rate cut by the Fed, with current odds at around 40% for a cut in December [4] Inflation and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain its current interest rates due to persistent inflation issues, despite a stable labor market [5][6] - There is speculation that bond yields should be closer to 5% due to economic stimulus and investment, yet current yields remain around 4.1% [8] - The bond market is experiencing low volatility, attributed to a lack of major surprises from the Fed and a shift in investor interest towards bonds as a hedge against equity market fluctuations [9][11] Private Credit Concerns - The rapid growth of private credit is drawing attention from the Federal Reserve, with recent events such as the termination of the Blue Owl merger highlighting potential stresses in this sector [12][13] - The Fed is expected to collaborate with regulatory bodies like the SEC and FSO to monitor private credit more closely to prevent issues similar to the subprime crisis [13][14] - The opacity and illiquidity of private credit markets are causing concern among investors, impacting overall market sentiment [14][15]

美国芝加哥联储主席Goolsbee（2025年FOMC票委）：过去三个月的通胀充其量是保持稳定，从某些衡 量标准来看更糟。在确定通胀回升是否是暂时的之前，对提前大幅降息感到不安。认为美联储主席鲍威 尔努力建立共识的做法很有价值。如果我最终意见强烈，且与其他美联储政策制定者意见不同，提出异 议也没有错。在美联储9月降息后，认为2025年只需要再降息一次。当我投票支持美联储10月降息时， 假定就业市场正在逐渐降温。9月就业数据显示稳定、温和降温；失业救济申请没有显示快速恶化。官 方政府数据是"一团糟"；缺乏通胀可见性带来的风险大于缺乏劳动力市场可见性带来的风险，因为劳动 力市场有更多替代数据。就中期利率而言，他不是鹰派。相信利率将远低于目前的水平。 ...

Economic Activity Index - The China High-Frequency Economic Activity Index (YHEI) as of November 18, 2025, is 1.25, a decrease of 0.03 from November 11 [1][3] - Industrial indicators such as the "coastal coal freight index" and "import dry bulk freight index" fell by 0.21 and 0.03 respectively, contributing to the decline in YHEI [1][3] Consumption and Retail - In October, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 46,291.3 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.9%, which is 0.1 percentage points lower than the previous month [25] - The growth rate of commodity retail sales decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 2.8%, marking five consecutive months of decline; however, catering revenue increased by 2.9 percentage points to 3.8%, the highest level since June [25] Foreign Trade - In October, the total import and export value was 520.632 billion USD, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, marking the first negative growth since March this year [25] - The import growth rate dropped from 7.4% in September to 1.0%, while the export growth rate fell from 8.3% to -1.1% [25] Industrial Production - The industrial added value for enterprises above designated size grew by 4.9% year-on-year in October, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points from the previous month [2][25] - The mining and manufacturing sectors saw their added value growth rates decline to 4.5% and 4.9% respectively, while the production and supply of electricity, gas, and water rebounded to 5.4% [2][25] Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - As of November 18, the central bank net injected 465.1 billion yuan through open market operations, with a 7-day reverse repurchase rate of 1.4% [6] - The overnight interbank rate rose by 3 basis points to 1.58%, and the 7-day repurchase rate increased by 2 basis points to 1.54% [8][10] Real Estate Market - New housing transaction areas in first and third-tier cities decreased by 1.31% and 12.7% respectively, while second-tier cities saw a significant increase of 39.19% [41][42] - The average daily transaction area for second-hand homes increased by 9.02%, 5.04%, and 15.21% in first, second, and third-tier cities respectively [44] Shipping and Logistics - The coastal bulk freight index rose by 14.65 points to 1250.56, while the Baltic Dry Index increased by 144 points to 2216 [37] - The container freight index for exports was 1094.03, up by 35.86 from November 7 [37] Global Economic Indicators - The US dollar index increased by 0.11 points to 99.59, and the RMB to USD exchange rate rose by 82 basis points to 7.1125 [50][52] - The VIX index rose by 7.41 points to 24.69, indicating increased market volatility [57]

美国国债收益率在亚洲交易时段小幅走高，此前美联储10月份会议的纪要称，对于该委员会12月份的政 策决定存在"严重分歧的看法"。与此同时，美国劳工统计局周三表示，不会发布10月份的完整美国就业 报告，该报告将与11月份的完整报告一同发布。SEB的Amanda Sundstrom在一份报告中称，在美国劳工 统计局发布上述声明后，市场认为美联储12月降息的可能性已大幅下降，而美联储的会议纪要也起到了 助推作用，因其暗示利率可能在今年剩余时间保持在当前水平。据Tradeweb的数据，10年期美国国债收 益率上升1个基点，至4.140%。 来源：滚动播报 ...