Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with a significant increase in the probability of rate cuts for October and December reaching 89.3% [2] - Gold prices broke the $3800 per ounce barrier, closing at $3833.73 on September 29, marking a 1.9% increase, the largest single-day gain since August 1 [1] - The combination of monetary policy expectations, political risks, and geopolitical conflicts has catalyzed the recent rise in gold prices, reinforcing its status as a safe-haven asset [1][2] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - The current bullish trend in gold is supported by the Federal Reserve entering a rate-cutting cycle, although short-term adjustments may still be necessary [3] - Key support levels for gold are identified between $3790 and $3800, with resistance levels around $3860 [5] - The analysis suggests a strategy of selling on rebounds and buying on dips, with a focus on the $3840-$3850 resistance and $3800-$3790 support levels [5] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - Brent crude oil prices fell to $67.50 per barrel, with WTI crude also declining to $63.05 per barrel, following a significant drop of over 3% on the previous trading day [6] - The decline in oil prices is primarily driven by changing supply expectations, particularly with OPEC+ likely to approve an increase in production [6] - Concerns over potential oversupply are overshadowing geopolitical risks, indicating a bearish sentiment in the oil market [6] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Oil - The oil market is currently in a consolidation phase, with price fluctuations expected to remain within the $66.00 to $60.80 range [7] - Short-term trends indicate a downward movement, with significant resistance at $64.0-$65.0 and support at $61.5-$60.5 [7]

Housing Market - Pending home sales increased by 4% month-over-month, significantly surpassing the expected 0.2% increase, marking the largest rise since April [2][3] - Last month's pending home sales were revised from negative 0.4% to negative 0.3%, indicating a slight improvement [3] - Lower mortgage rates are encouraging buyers to enter the market, particularly in the Midwest, while the Northeast remains weak [3][4] Market Dynamics - Inventory levels for existing homes are rising, but prices have not seen aggressive cuts yet, suggesting a mixed outlook for the housing market [7] - If mortgage rates drop to the low fives or high fours, housing prices may rebound, especially with potential aggressive rate cuts anticipated next year [9] - The housing market is experiencing a rolling recession, with varying performance across regions, particularly weakness in the Southeast [10] Economic Indicators - A potential government shutdown could delay key economic data releases, including the BLS report, making the upcoming ADP report more significant [12][15] - The ADP report is expected to provide insights into labor market trends, especially in light of the volatility in the BLS report [15] Oil Market - Oil prices have retreated to around $63 per barrel after reaching two-month highs, influenced by supply concerns and OPEC's potential production increase [16][19] - An increase in the Baker Hughes rig count and reports of OPEC considering a production quota hike are contributing to downward pressure on oil prices [17][18] - Geopolitical risks remain a key factor that could influence oil prices positively in the near future [20]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Bond Research Weekly for the 4th week of September 2025, focusing on bond market analysis from the perspective of institutional behavior [2][9] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The behavior of funds is crucial in the bond market, with their net purchases strongly correlated with interest rate trends. The instability of funds' liability side has increased due to the new sales fee regulations, and the impact of the regulations' implementation should be closely monitored [4][15] - The three institutional behavior changes (funds having nothing left to sell, brokerages closing short positions, and banks "picking up bargains") are favorable for the bond market. Future interest rates may decline due to funds repurchasing bonds, banks increasing allocations, and brokerages closing positions. Currently, interest rate products have a higher probability of success than Tier 2 and credit bonds [4][15] Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Re - examination after Interest Rate Breakthrough 1.1 Three Changes in Institutional Behavior and Future Outlook - Funds are "sold out": Since Q3, funds have continuously reduced duration. As of September 26, 2025, the median duration of medium - and long - term bond funds (including leverage) dropped to 2.8 years, and the cumulative net purchase of ultra - long treasury bonds (over 10Y) by funds has been negative since early September [3][9] - Brokerages are closing short positions: The borrowing volume of the top three active 10Y treasury bonds remains volatile, while that of 10Y CDB bonds has decreased, indicating brokerage short - position closing before the holiday [10] - Banks are "picking up bargains": Since August, joint - stock banks have continuously bought old 10Y treasury bonds, acting as a "buffer" during the bond market correction. Recently, Tier 2 and perpetual bonds have corrected rapidly, and funds are selling Tier 2 bonds more aggressively [3][14] 1.2 Yield Curve - Treasury bond yields generally increased. On a week - on - week basis, the 1Y yield decreased by 1bp, the 3Y yield increased by 3bp, the 5Y yield changed less than 1bp, the 7Y yield increased by 1bp, the 10Y yield changed less than 1bp, the 15Y yield increased by 1.5bp, and the 30Y yield increased by 2bp. In terms of percentiles, the 1Y dropped to the 10% percentile, and others had various percentile changes [16][18] - CDB bond yields also generally increased. The 1Y yield decreased by 0.5bp, the 3Y yield increased by 2bp, the 5Y yield increased by about 2.3bp, the 7Y yield increased by 4.6bp, the 10Y yield increased by 1.1bp, the 15Y yield increased by about 4.6bp, and the 30Y yield increased by 4.9bp. Percentiles also had corresponding changes [18] 1.3 Term Spread - The spread between treasury bonds and CDB bonds (1Y - DR001, 1Y - DR007) showed a differentiated trend, and the term spread generally widened [19] 2. Bond Market Leverage and Funding Situation 2.1 Leverage Ratio - From September 22 to September 26, 2025, the leverage ratio fluctuated and decreased. As of September 26, it was about 107.06%, up 0.32pct from last Friday and down 0.04pct from Monday [23] 2.2 Repurchase Transactions - From September 22 to September 26, the average daily trading volume of pledged repurchase was about 7.3 trillion yuan, up 0.1 trillion yuan from last week. The average daily trading volume of overnight pledged repurchase was 5.55 trillion yuan, down 0.72 trillion yuan month - on - month. The average overnight trading volume ratio was 75.72%, down 11.92pct month - on - month [27][28] 2.3 Funding Situation - From September 22 to September 26, bank - based fund lending first increased and then decreased. On September 26, the net lending of large and policy banks was 4.09 trillion yuan, and joint - stock, city, and rural commercial banks had a net borrowing of 0.28 trillion yuan. The main fund borrowers were brokerages, and money market funds' lending decreased. DR007, R007, 1YFR007, and 5YFR007 all fluctuated and increased, with different changes compared to last Friday [30] 3. Duration of Medium - and Long - Term Bond Funds 3.1 Overall Duration - From September 22 to September 26, the median duration of medium - and long - term bond funds was 2.68 years (de - leveraged) and 2.79 years (including leverage). On September 26, the median duration (de - leveraged) remained unchanged from last Friday, and the median duration (including leverage) decreased by 0.01 year [41] 3.2 Duration by Bond Fund Type - As of September 26, the median duration of interest - rate bond funds (including leverage) dropped to 3.53 years, down 0.01 year from last Friday; the median duration of credit bond funds (including leverage) dropped to 2.52 years, up 0.01 year from last Friday. The de - leveraged durations also had corresponding changes [44] 4. Category Strategy Comparison - As of September 26, the Sino - US spread generally narrowed, and the implied tax rate (10Y CDB - treasury bond spread) narrowed at the short end and widened at the medium - and long - ends [48] 5. Bond Lending Balance Changes - On September 26, the lending concentration of active 10Y treasury bonds and 10Y CDB bonds increased, that of secondary active 10Y CDB bonds and active 30Y treasury bonds decreased, and that of secondary active 10Y treasury bonds remained unchanged. Except for brokerages, all other institutional lending concentrations increased [50]

Group 1: Macro Strategy Overview - The report suggests a balanced asset allocation strategy for the fourth quarter, favoring equities, commodities, and non-USD currencies while being bearish on bonds and the USD [1] - The US economy is experiencing slight stagflation, with expectations of a GDP growth decline from 2% in the first half to 1.3% in Q4 2023 [9] - The Eurozone economy is performing better than expected, with inflation stabilizing and government bond yields rising [1][13] Group 2: Currency Recommendations - The report recommends an overweight allocation to currency market products (20%), emphasizing their liquidity and safety [4][7] - Specific currency allocations include an overweight in USD (10.5%), Euro (4%), and GBP (2.5%), while recommending a neutral position in RMB (1.2%) and underweight in JPY (0%) [4][6][8] Group 3: Bond Market Insights - A neutral allocation to bonds (22.5%) is suggested, with a focus on US bonds (10%) and an overweight in UK (2%) and emerging market bonds (5%) [4][42] - The report highlights that bond valuations are more attractive than equities, despite potential inflation risks [42][43] Group 4: Equity Market Analysis - A neutral allocation to equities (30%) is recommended, with specific overweight positions in Eurozone (4.3%), UK (2.5%), and China (3.5%) stocks, while underweighting US (17%) and Japanese stocks (1%) [4][6][42] - The report notes that stock valuations are currently higher than fixed income products, indicating a need for caution [4][42] Group 5: Alternative Assets - The report suggests a lower allocation to alternative assets (27.5%) due to their high risk and low liquidity, recommending a diversified approach [4][6] - Specific alternative assets include private equity (9%), hedge funds (5%), and real estate (5.5%), with a cautious outlook on digital assets (1%) [4][6][42]

Core Insights - The Brazilian Central Bank's latest Focus Report indicates stable market expectations for inflation, economic growth, interest rates, and exchange rates for 2025 [1][3] Inflation - The market predicts a 2025 inflation rate of 4.83%, consistent with the previous week and slightly lower than the 4.86% forecast four weeks ago [1] - For 2026 and 2027, inflation expectations are 4.29% and 3.90%, respectively [1] - In August, Brazil experienced its first deflation since August 2024, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreasing by 0.11% month-on-month, and the National Consumer Price Index (INPC) dropping by 0.21% [1] Economic Growth - The expected GDP growth for Brazil in 2025 is 2.16%, unchanged from the previous week and slightly lower than the 2.18% forecast four weeks ago [1] - Growth expectations for 2026 and 2027 are 1.80% and 1.90%, respectively [1] Interest Rates - The market anticipates that the benchmark interest rate (Selic) will remain at 15% in 2025, marking the 13th consecutive week without change [1] - Expected interest rates for 2026 and 2027 are 12.25% and 10.50%, respectively [1] Exchange Rates - The market forecasts the USD/BRL exchange rate to be 5.50 by the end of 2025, slightly lower than the previous forecast of 5.59 [2] - Predictions for 2026 and 2027 remain at 5.60 [2] - The current spot exchange rate is approximately 5.32 [2] Market Sentiment - The Focus Report reflects market confidence in the economy, with the Central Bank's monetary policy committee noting increased risks for emerging markets due to global economic slowdown, U.S. policy uncertainty, and geopolitical tensions [1][3]

Economic Growth and Market Sentiment - The US economy showed stronger-than-expected growth in the second quarter, with a revised growth rate of 3.8 percent, up from the initial estimate of 3.3 percent, marking the fastest quarterly expansion in nearly two years [3] - Wall Street experienced a pullback, with all three main indexes ending in the red after reaching record highs earlier in the week, indicating concerns over stock valuations following a lengthy rally [4] Interest Rate Outlook and Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve recently cut interest rates due to a weakening labor market but indicated that further reductions are not guaranteed, leading to uncertainty in the market [2][3] - Decision-makers at the Federal Reserve have expressed varying views on future monetary policy in light of persistent inflation and soft job data [3] Tariff Implications on Pharmaceuticals - President Trump's announcement of new tariffs includes a 100 percent levy on "branded or patented" pharmaceuticals unless companies establish manufacturing plants in the US, which has raised concerns among Asian pharmaceutical firms [5][6] - Asian pharmaceutical companies, including Shanghai Fosun and South Korea's Daewoong, saw significant stock declines following the tariff announcement, with Fosun dropping more than four percent [6] Legislative Uncertainty - Traders are closely monitoring the ongoing negotiations in Washington regarding a funding package to prevent a government shutdown, with a deadline approaching next week [2][7] - The lack of agreement between Democrats and Republicans over spending plans is contributing to market unease, as both parties remain at an impasse [8]

特朗普发布“利率前瞻指引”，称如果不是鲍威尔，现在的利率应该是2%，并且正在实现预算平衡。 https://t.co/8fNUFQ2kHR ...

Market Insights - The China Foreign Exchange Trading Center will optimize the "Swap Connect" operational mechanism by establishing a dynamic adjustment mechanism for quote providers and expanding the pool of quote providers. Additionally, the daily net limit will be raised to 45 billion RMB starting October 13. As of the end of August, 82 overseas investors from 15 countries and regions have completed over 15,000 RMB interest rate swap transactions with a nominal principal of 8.15 trillion RMB [1] - The International Financial Association reported that the global debt reached a historical high of 337.7 trillion USD by the end of the second quarter. Emerging market debt increased by 3.4 trillion USD to over 109 trillion USD, also a record high. The repayment scale for bonds and loans in emerging markets is expected to reach nearly 3.2 trillion USD for the remainder of the year, marking a historical peak [1] - Nine major European banks, including ING and UniCredit, announced plans to establish a new company to launch a euro-denominated stablecoin, aiming to create a European alternative to the currently US-dominated stablecoin market [1] Economic Indicators - The final annualized GDP growth rate for the US in the second quarter was revised up to 3.8%, significantly higher than the previous estimate of 3.3%, marking the fastest growth in nearly two years. Real personal consumption expenditures increased by 2.5%, and final sales rose by 7.5% [3] - The final PCE price index for the US in the second quarter increased by 2.1% quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year, while the core PCE price index rose by 2.6% quarter-on-quarter and 2.7% year-on-year [3] - Initial jobless claims in the US decreased by 14,000 to 218,000, the lowest level since mid-July, and significantly below the market expectation of 235,000 [3] Durable Goods and Housing Market - In August, US durable goods orders increased by 2.9% month-on-month, with July's final value revised to -2.7%. Excluding defense orders, the increase was 1.9%, and excluding transportation orders, the increase was 0.4% [4] - Seasonally adjusted, US existing home sales in August slightly decreased by 0.2% from July to an annualized rate of 4 million units, with the median home price rising by 2% year-on-year to 422,600 USD, marking the 26th consecutive month of year-on-year increases [4] Global Market Dynamics - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.38% to 45,947.32 points, the S&P 500 dropped by 0.5% to 6,604.72 points, and the Nasdaq Composite decreased by 0.5% to 22,384.7 points [5] - COMEX gold futures rose by 0.33% to 3,780.5 USD per ounce, while COMEX silver futures increased by 2.89% to 45.47 USD per ounce [5] - US oil futures rose by 0.35% to 65.22 USD per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures increased by 0.5% to 68.8 USD per barrel [5] - The 2-year US Treasury yield rose by 4.50 basis points to 3.653%, while the 10-year yield increased by 1.93 basis points to 4.168% [5] - The US dollar index increased by 0.60% to 98.47, with the euro and pound both declining against the dollar [5]

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - Milan advocates for an immediate aggressive rate cut of 50 basis points to avoid economic damage, suggesting a total reduction of 150 to 200 basis points to approach neutral interest rates [2][3] - Goolsbee expresses caution regarding premature large rate cuts, emphasizing the need to bring inflation down to 2% before considering significant reductions [4] - Goolsbee remains optimistic about the U.S. economy's path towards reducing inflation, despite concerns about the labor market and the pace of AI adoption in businesses [4] Group 2: Trade and Economic Growth - The U.S. trade deficit narrowed significantly by 16.8% in August to $85.5 billion, driven by a $19.6 billion drop in imports [6][7] - The second quarter saw the U.S. economy grow at an annualized rate of 3.8%, revised up from 3.3%, with trade deficit reduction being a major contributing factor [7]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Core View - On September 24, treasury bond futures prices generally declined, with the T2512 contract down 0.24% and a decrease in open interest. The IRR of CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of treasury bond futures was at a low level, with no arbitrage opportunities. Short - term market interest rates generally rose, and key - term treasury bond yields showed mixed trends. The long - short (10 - 2) treasury bond yield spread was 41.3bp. Overseas, the 10Y US treasury bond yield rose 4bp, the 10Y German treasury bond yield rose 0bp, and the 10Y Japanese treasury bond yield fell 1.4bp. The central bank's monetary policy showed a moderately loose orientation, with a net MLF injection of 3000 billion yuan in September. With the Fed entering the interest - rate cut cycle, the central bank's policy space has increased, but the next policy adjustment needs central unified deployment. It is recommended to remain bearish on the long - end and stay on the sidelines for the short - end [2][3] Summary by Relevant Content Treasury Futures Market - **Price and Volume**: On September 24, prices of various treasury bond futures contracts generally fell, such as the TS2512 contract down 0.05%, the TF2512 contract down 0.14%, and the T2512 contract down 0.24%. Open interest of most contracts decreased, except for some with an increase. Trading volume varied among contracts [2] - **IRR and Arbitrage**: The IRR of CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of treasury bond futures was at a low level, indicating no arbitrage opportunities [2] Short - term Market Interest Rates - Rates of SHIBOR overnight, SHIBOR7 days, DR001, DR007, GC001, GC007, FR001, and FR007 generally rose on September 24. For example, SHIBOR7 days rose 12.8bp, DR007 rose 18.48bp, and GC007 rose 14.2bp [2] Spot Market - Chinese Treasury Bonds - **Yield Changes**: Yields of key - term treasury bonds showed mixed trends on September 24. The 10Y treasury bond yield rose 1.98bp to 1.9%, and the long - short (10 - 2) treasury bond yield spread was 41.3bp [2] Overseas Market - Treasury Bonds - **Yield Changes**: On September 24, the 10Y US treasury bond yield rose 4bp, the 10Y German treasury bond yield rose 0bp, and the 10Y Japanese treasury bond yield fell 1.4bp [2] Macro News - **Monetary Policy**: On September 24, the central bank conducted 4015 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 170 billion yuan. It also announced a 6000 - billion - yuan MLF operation on September 25, with a net injection of 3000 billion yuan in September, continuing the moderately loose monetary policy [3] - **Trade Policy**: China stated at the WTO that it would not seek new special and differential treatment, while emphasizing its status as the largest developing country. The US and the EU finalized a tariff agreement, with certain EU products on the tariff - exemption list [3] - **Financial Policy**: Commercial banks can use certain bonds as collateral for treasury cash time deposits, with specific collateral requirements [3] - **US Fiscal Policy**: The US Treasury Secretary criticized the Fed Chairman and urged a 100 - 150 - basis - point interest - rate cut by the end of the year. The Treasury is considering a 20 - billion - dollar currency swap with Argentina [3] Industry Information - **Interest Rate Changes**: On September 24, most money - market interest rates rose, and US treasury bond yields collectively increased [3] Comment and Strategy - The market situation showed that treasury bond futures prices generally declined, the central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal, and short - end Shibor rates rose. Although the MLF continued to inject medium - term liquidity, considering factors such as economic data and the Fed's policy, it is recommended to remain bearish on the long - end and stay on the sidelines for the short - end [3]