日本央行：实际利率处于历史较低水平 日本经济增长可能放缓 智通财经5月1日电，日本央行表示，实际利率处于历史较低水平，日本经济增长可能放缓；将从可持 续、稳定地实现2%通胀目标的角度，酌情实施货币政策。 ...

From UBS 黄金最近成为表现最好的资产类别，过去一年上涨了 50%。 现在的关键问题是何时获利了结。 与股票或债券不同，黄金缺乏确定"公允价值"的估值指 标，这一决策很有挑战。有些人会建议 使用实际利率 ，但证明难以应用(下图，已经背离），因为近期黄金价格的波动可能更多受地缘政治因素驱动，而 非投资组合优化 在本文中，我们回顾了历史上的地缘政治事件，以提供黄金走势的判断。以下是一些需要关注的"见顶信号" 黄金一旦突破，通常会在两三年内翻2-4倍……至少达到 4000 美元 当黄金价格在2024年4月突破 2100 美元时，我们在《黄金突破：追还是放弃？》中讨论过， 黄金长时间震荡后一旦突破，涨势通常迅猛且激烈， 历史 上在短时间内曾出现过 2-4 倍的飙升（是的你没看错）。以2-3年长期持有为目标的投资者可以预期价格翻倍，甚至超过4000 美元。 自1971年布雷顿森林体系结束黄金开始自由交易以来，黄金经历了四次重要的突破阶段：1972 年 2 月、1978 年 8 月、2008 年 2 月，以及最近的 2024 年 3 月（下图）。值得注意的是，黄金价格的突破在某种程度上预示了 经济衰退 和 地缘政治 ...

黄金价格创新高，是机会还是陷阱？ 与此同时，美联储的货币政策也在悄然生变。表面上鲍威尔宣称维持利率不变，但纽约联储内部模型却显示，实际利率已达0.5%，为2019年以来首次转 正。10年期美债收益率升至4.5%，持有黄金的机会成本大幅增加，机构投资者已连续8周减持黄金ETF。当持有黄金的成本不断攀升，而收益却充满不确定 性时，投资者自然会选择用脚投票。 更令人担忧的是，全球央行正悄然开启抛售潮。3月，中国央行黄金储备减少15吨，印度央行抛售22吨，土耳其央行减持9吨，全球央行单月抛售量达2019年 以来峰值。过去十年，央行年均购金1000吨，是推动金价上涨的重要力量，如今风向突变，抛售潮一旦形成规模，很可能引发市场的"踩踏效应"，重演2013 年黄金暴跌的悲剧。 高盛内部模型也对2025年黄金价格做出了预测，给出了三种情景。在软着陆衰退情景下，美元指数115，实际利率1%，黄金目标价2400美元，较当前跌 27%；硬着陆危机情景下，美元指数125，实际利率2%，黄金目标价1800美元，较当前跌45%；只有在滞胀奇迹情景下，美元指数95，实际利率 - 1%，黄金 目标价才会涨至4200美元，但这种情景的发生概率 ...

Group 1: Fiscal Policy Initiatives - Since the beginning of 2025, government debt net financing reached CNY 2.39 trillion, which is CNY 1.49 trillion higher than the same period in 2024[10] - Major project investments in January-February 2025 increased by nearly 40% year-on-year, indicating a strong start for fiscal spending[10] - Infrastructure investment growth in January-February 2025 improved by 2.5 percentage points to 10% compared to December 2024[10] Group 2: Monetary Policy Challenges - The actual loan interest rate remains high at 4%, reflecting ongoing low price levels that necessitate proactive monetary policy[21] - The divergence between interbank funding rates and policy rates has widened, leading to increased funding costs for commercial banks, which hampers the reduction of financing costs for the real economy[15] - The central bank's gradual approach to rate cuts contrasts with historical precedents where more aggressive actions were taken to stabilize investment returns[30] Group 3: Economic Recovery and Interest Rate Adjustments - A significant reduction in interest rates is required to stimulate internal economic momentum, as current corporate investment returns have not stabilized[30] - If the government bond financing costs remain unchanged from last year, interest payments could increase by over CNY 190 billion, surpassing the savings from debt replacement[43] - The proportion of government debt interest payments to total fiscal revenue is projected to rise to 9.1% in 2025, up from 7.8% in 2024, indicating increasing fiscal pressure[43]

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan has maintained its policy interest rate at 0.5%, while the Swiss National Bank has lowered its policy interest rate to 0.25%, marking a reversal in their interest rate positions for the first time in over two and a half years [1][2] - The change in interest rates is expected to weaken "yen carry trades," which involve borrowing in low-interest yen to invest in higher-yielding assets, thus reducing the pressure on the yen's depreciation [1][2] - As of March 21, the yen was trading around 149 yen to the dollar, with fewer expectations of one-sided depreciation, reflecting the shift in Japan's policy stance [1] Group 2 - The Swiss National Bank's decision to cut rates is attributed to decreasing inflationary pressures, marking the fifth consecutive meeting where rates have been lowered [2] - The reversal in interest rates has made it more challenging for carry trades, which previously relied on Japan's low rates, to continue, potentially stabilizing the yen [2][3] - Speculation has arisen regarding the Swiss National Bank's potential halt in rate cuts, while strong sentiment exists that the Bank of Japan will continue to raise rates, widening the policy rate gap between the two countries [3] Group 3 - Data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission indicates that speculative net short positions in the yen reached their highest level since June 2007, reflecting the dynamics of yen carry trades [3] - Market analysts predict that if exchange rate volatility remains low, the Swiss franc may become a more attractive currency for carry trades, diminishing the dominance of yen carry trades [4] - Despite the potential for reduced selling pressure on the yen, actual interest rates remain significantly negative, complicating expectations for yen appreciation [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the relationship between nominal interest rates, inflation, and government bond prices, emphasizing that nominal interest rates serve as a proxy for risk-free rates and are influenced by economic growth and inflation expectations [1][2]. Group 1: Impact of Inflation and Interest Rates - CPI is a crucial indicator of inflation; an increase in CPI from 2 to 5 leads to higher nominal return expectations, resulting in rising risk-free rates and falling government bond prices [2]. - Actual interest rates (nominal rates minus inflation) are positively correlated with economic growth, while nominal rates are positively correlated with both economic growth and inflation [2]. Group 2: Mechanism of Bond Price Changes - When nominal interest rates decrease, government bond prices increase as investors seek higher yields from fixed-income products [3]. - Conversely, when nominal interest rates rise, government bond prices decline due to new bonds offering higher yields [4]. Group 3: Key Factors Influencing 30-Year Bonds - The two main factors affecting 30-year government bonds are actual interest rates and CPI growth rates; both factors inversely affect bond prices [5][6]. - A simultaneous decrease in actual interest rates and CPI growth rates leads to a significant increase in bond prices, while simultaneous increases lead to a substantial decrease [7]. Group 4: Determinants of Actual Interest Rates - Economic conditions significantly influence actual interest rates, reflecting borrowing costs and market supply-demand dynamics [8]. - Central bank policies, including adjustments to open market operations and reserve requirements, play a critical role in shaping actual interest rates [9]. Group 5: Factors Affecting 30-Year Bond ETF - Changes in interest rates directly impact ETF net values; rising yields lead to declining net values, while falling yields boost net values [10]. - The shape of the yield curve affects the attractiveness of 30-year bonds; a steepening curve may reduce demand for long-term bonds, while a flattening or inverted curve enhances their appeal [11][12]. - Inflation expectations can suppress ETF prices, while recession expectations can lower rates and benefit ETF prices [13][14]. Group 6: Conclusion and Investment Strategy - The 30-year government bond ETF acts as a "barometer" for interest rate markets, influenced by macroeconomic conditions, policy expectations, and investor behavior [15]. - Investors should focus on interest rate path expectations, ETF premium/discount risks, and inflation expectations when making investment decisions [16][17][18]. - In a rate-cutting environment, it is generally advisable to take long positions in government bonds, although inappropriate rate cuts could lead to rising CPI and hinder market rate declines [19][20].