Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in consumer spending, particularly in the tourism sector, with domestic tourism expected to grow significantly in 2025, with a projected increase of 16.2% in travel volume and 9.5% in tourism revenue [4][24] - The human resources sector is poised for growth due to ongoing government support and the integration of AI technologies, which are expected to enhance efficiency and reduce operational burdens [4][40] - The sports industry is set to expand rapidly, with clear policy direction aiming for a total industry scale of 7 trillion yuan by 2030, indicating substantial growth potential [4][59] Tourism Industry - The domestic tourism market is projected to maintain high growth rates, with urban residents expected to travel 4.996 billion times, a 14.3% increase, and rural residents 1.526 billion times, a 22.6% increase in 2025 [24][27] - Despite the growth, the tourism sector has not yet returned to pre-pandemic levels, with tourism revenue as a percentage of GDP at only 4.5% in 2025, compared to 5.7% in 2019 [27][28] - Consumer willingness to spend on tourism remains strong, with tourism consumption ranking first among various spending categories [31][30] Human Resources Industry - The human resources sector is characterized as a strong cyclical industry, benefiting from macroeconomic recovery and increasing demand for flexible labor solutions [33][38] - The penetration rate of flexible employment in China is significantly lower than in developed countries, indicating substantial growth potential as the market matures [48][49] - Government policies are increasingly supportive of the human resources sector, with a focus on protecting the rights of flexible workers and enhancing the overall market environment [38][40] Sports Industry - The sports industry is expected to see accelerated growth, with the total industry scale projected to reach 3.8 trillion yuan by 2024, and a target of 7 trillion yuan by 2030 [59][56] - The government's "National Fitness Plan" aims to increase the sports industry's contribution to GDP, with a target of 2% by 2025 [59][56] - The expansion of sports events, including new golf tournaments, is anticipated to drive growth and diversify revenue streams for companies in the sector [67][69] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies like Huangshan Tourism (600054.SH) and Lisheng Sports (002858.SZ), which are expected to benefit from favorable policies and market conditions [4][64][67] - Huangshan Tourism is projected to see revenue growth of 13.05% in 2025, with a net profit increase of 19.83% [64] - Lisheng Sports is expected to achieve significant revenue growth of 30.02% in 2025, with a turnaround to profitability anticipated [67]

中新网宁夏新闻1月28日电 （记者 李佩珊）记者28日从宁夏银川市永宁县获悉，永宁县于1月至3月全面 启动"准备之冬"专项行动，紧盯稳投资、扩内需、强动能等重点任务，全力保障经济发展要素供给，聚 焦一季度"稳中有进、量质齐升"目标，奋力夺取经济社会发展"开门红"。 此外，当地还健全服务保障机制，严格落实领导包抓重点项目制度，建立专员代办机制，定期开展"政 企面对面"交流，完善超期督办机制，层层压实责任，确保各项工作扎实推进，将行动成效转化为实实 在在的发展成果。（完） 此次专项行动秉持"起步即冲刺、开局即决战"发展基调，明确核心发展指标，力争2026年一季度实现地 区生产总值增长5%，规模以上工业增加值增长6.5%；计划实施项目开工率达100%，固定资产投资增长 6%以上；一般公共预算收入、社会消费品零售总额均增长3%，城乡居民人均可支配收入与经济增长同 步。 为确保各项目标落到实处，专项行动聚焦项目建设"生命线"，实行清单化管理、节点化推进，建立健全 新建、续建、签约、储备项目及资金争取闭环推进机制。同时，永宁县精准施策，为重点产业积蓄发展 动能，扎实开展产业链招商，做好企业复工复产保障，抓实冬春农业生产， ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing fluctuations, with over 3,500 stocks in the red, while the Shanghai Composite Index shows a slight increase, indicating a mixed market sentiment [1] Market Performance - As of the midday close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.49%, and the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.09%. In contrast, the ChiNext Index fell by 0.37%, and the STAR Market 50 Index decreased by 0.73% [1] - The total trading volume across the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets reached approximately 1.93 trillion yuan [1] Sector Analysis - The pharmaceutical, automotive, and retail sectors experienced declines, while the oil, non-ferrous metals, coal, semiconductor, and brokerage sectors saw gains. Additionally, gold and disperse dye concepts were active [1] Investment Strategy - Dongguan Securities suggests that short-term indices may continue to fluctuate around moving averages, with an accelerated rotation of sectors. However, the spring market for A-shares is expected to continue, primarily characterized by structural trends [1] - Recommended investment strategies include balanced allocation, focusing on undervalued assets with stable earnings, technology sectors leading new productivity, and domestic demand expansion under the backdrop of a strong domestic market [1]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index opened up 0.73% and the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.56%, indicating a positive market sentiment at the beginning of the year [1] - The precious metals sector showed strong performance, with Zijin Mining rising over 2% and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining increasing by over 4% [1] - The biopharmaceutical sector also performed well, with CanSino Biologics increasing by over 3%, and Longi Green Energy saw a significant rise of over 14% [1] Group 2 - According to China Merchants International, the Hong Kong stock market is currently in an earnings vacuum period, with high growth expectations for new economy sectors boosting market confidence [2] - The appreciation of the Renminbi is favorable for Hong Kong stocks, and domestic policies focusing on technological innovation and expanding domestic demand are expected to positively influence the market [2] - The market is gradually forming a complete AI industry chain listing system, attracting capital and alleviating IPO fundraising pressure [2] - The first two months of the year will see a reduction in the scale of lock-up releases, easing selling pressure [2] - The combination of early-year profit switching and valuation switching is expected to lead to a "spring rally," favoring growth styles [2] Group 3 - According to Fuguo Fund, the Hong Kong market is likely to maintain a volatile consolidation pattern, driven by global trade tensions, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, and the strength of domestic economic recovery [2] - Huatai Securities believes that a continued rebound in the Hong Kong market is expected in the first quarter, focusing on space while downplaying slope [2] - Key sectors to watch include the AI chain (semiconductors, software) and innovative pharmaceuticals, with a recommendation to gradually accumulate quality consumer leaders and overweight cyclical and upstream power sectors [2] Group 4 - Zheshang International is optimistic about sectors benefiting from policy support, such as new energy, innovative pharmaceuticals, and AI technology [2] - The company also highlights the stability of performance and stock price trends in undervalued state-owned enterprises benefiting from policy support, as well as local Hong Kong banks, telecommunications, and public utility dividend stocks that are relatively independent of the economic cycle [2] - The performance of the Hong Kong stock market in spring 2026 is expected to be driven by "AI applications + PPI improvement + expanded domestic demand," with a recommendation to focus on related quality targets [2]

证券研究报告|商贸零售 [Table_Title] 大消费板块重仓比例连续 7 个季度回落，远 低于历史均值水平 [Table_ReportType] ——大消费行业 2025Q4 基金持仓分析[Table_ReportDate] [投资要点： Table_Summary] ⚫ 大消费板块重仓比例持续回落，多数消费子板块重仓比例均环比 下降，只有轻工制造、商贸零售和社会服务三个板块略有上升。 2025Q4 大消费板块基金重仓比例延续了 7 个季度以来的下降趋 势，环比下降 0.28pcts 至 4.41%，目前处于历史低位，远低于 2018 年以来的历史重仓比例平均值 10.94%。 ⚫ 分个股：全市场个股持仓 TOP20 中大消费板块占据 2 个席位，与 Q3 季度席位数持平，大消费板块个股重仓比例分化明显。2025Q4 全市场基金重仓比例 TOP20 个股中大消费板块占据 2 个席位，食 品饮料（贵州茅台）和家用电器（美的集团）各占据 1 席。大消 费板块基金重仓比例提升幅度前 10 个股包括 3 只家用电器个股 （美的集团、格力电器、海尔智家）、2 只食品饮料个股（伊利股 份、口子窖）、2 只轻工制造个 ...

Group 1 - The core focus of Beijing's 2026 key work is to vigorously promote consumption, with a specific emphasis on enhancing residents' income and consumption capacity [1] - The government plans to formulate policies aimed at increasing urban and rural residents' income, addressing consumption bottlenecks to encourage residents to consume more [1] - The report outlines a roadmap for boosting consumption, focusing on both goods and services, and aims to optimize commercial layouts and improve the quality of traditional business districts [1] Group 2 - The integration of cultural, commercial, tourism, and sports events is seen as a significant opportunity to stimulate consumption, particularly through attracting non-local consumers [2] - The development of new consumption scenarios, such as leisure, fashion, and winter sports, is identified as a key strategy to activate consumer spending and expand the consumption supply chain [2] - The transition from high-speed economic growth to high-quality development highlights the critical role of consumption, necessitating a long-term strategy to cultivate new consumption habits and expand domestic demand [2]

Group 1 - The core focus of the 2026 work plan in Beijing is to vigorously promote consumption, with an emphasis on enhancing residents' consumption capacity through income increase policies [1] - The government aims to address consumption bottlenecks, ensuring that residents can, dare, and are willing to consume, with income being the primary barrier [1] - The central economic work conference has prioritized "domestic demand-led growth and building a strong domestic market" as the top task for 2026, explicitly requiring the formulation and implementation of urban and rural resident income increase plans [1] Group 2 - The report outlines a roadmap for "greatly boosting consumption," focusing on both goods and services, aiming for both stock and incremental growth [1] - For goods consumption, the strategy includes optimizing commercial layouts, enhancing the quality of traditional business districts, and addressing service gaps in communities and specialty streets [1] - The shift from a goods-centric consumption model to a balanced focus on both goods and services is crucial, with an emphasis on improving service consumption in sectors like education, health, and elderly care [1] Group 3 - The integration of cultural, commercial, tourism, and sports events is seen as a significant opportunity to stimulate consumption, particularly through attracting non-local consumers [2] - The "first store economy," "first launch economy," and "night economy" are interconnected, creating a multiplier effect that expands consumption space [2] - The current economic transition from high-speed growth to high-quality development highlights the critical role of consumption, necessitating a long-term strategy to cultivate new consumption habits and expand domestic demand [2]

Core Viewpoint - Recent breakthroughs in lithium extraction from salt lakes in China indicate a shift in the industry from "cost advantage" to "technology leadership," potentially leading to a full-chain upgrade from resource development to high-value utilization [1] Group 1: Macro Environment - The overall macro environment is favorable for the non-ferrous metals sector [3][12] - Multiple supportive factors are emerging for the non-ferrous metals sector due to the dual backdrop of global economic restructuring and domestic policy drivers [4][13] Group 2: Global Liquidity and Geopolitical Risks - Expectations for increased global liquidity are rising, with UBS predicting two 25 basis point rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, lowering the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.00% to 3.25% [5][14] - Heightened geopolitical risks at the start of 2026 are expected to increase market demand for safe-haven assets, benefiting gold prices and supporting demand for key strategic metals like copper, tungsten, molybdenum, cobalt, and rare earths [6][14] Group 3: Domestic Economic Stability - China's manufacturing PMI rose above the neutral line in December, indicating economic stabilization and a potential recovery in manufacturing sentiment [6][14] - Continued government investment and infrastructure improvements are anticipated, alongside constraints on corporate expansion due to "anti-involution" policies, which may sustain price increases in the non-ferrous metals sector [6][14] Group 4: National Strategy and Resource Security - In 2026, China will initiate a new round of mineral exploration strategies and crack down on illegal mining of strategic mineral resources, which is expected to strengthen the long-term stability of the industry [6][15] Group 5: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The overall supply-demand balance for various non-ferrous metals is expected to remain tight, supporting upward price trends [8][18] - Factors such as global monetary easing, geopolitical tensions, supply-side constraints, and steady demand are likely to drive the non-ferrous metals sector in 2026 [10][19] Group 6: Specific Metal Insights - Gold: China's official gold reserves have increased for 14 consecutive months, indicating a trend towards further accumulation by the central bank [19] - Silver: Supply remains tight while industrial demand, particularly from the photovoltaic sector, continues to grow [19] - Copper: Long-term capital expenditure on copper mines is insufficient, leading to a potential shift from a tight balance to a shortage [19] - Aluminum: High copper prices are accelerating the "aluminum substitution for copper" trend, with potential shortages in aluminum supply expected [19] - Lithium: Demand for lithium battery materials remains strong, with expectations for a supply-demand reversal in lithium carbonate prices [19] - Cobalt: Continued export quotas from the Democratic Republic of Congo are expected to maintain structural tightness in cobalt supply [19]

Market Overview - A-shares showed mixed performance last week with a decline in trading volume at high levels [14] - The market experienced a cooling down after a period of heightened emotions, with a rapid decrease in market liquidity and financing levels [19] Macro Data Analysis - China's exports in December increased by 6.6% year-on-year in USD terms, exceeding market expectations and showing month-on-month growth [4][16] - For the entire year of 2025, exports are projected to grow by 5.5%, making it the largest contributor to economic growth among the three driving forces [4][16] - The strong export performance in December is attributed to sustained external demand during the global manufacturing cycle and a rush to export due to domestic tax rebate policy reductions [4][16] - The new export orders index for China's manufacturing PMI rose by 1.4 percentage points to 49.0% in December, supporting the evidence of strong external demand [4][16] - Key export items included computers, integrated circuits, and automobiles, with the latter showing the strongest growth, potentially influenced by the EU's proposed minimum import price policy for Chinese cars [4][17] Short-term Market Strategy - The market is expected to benefit from favorable liquidity conditions, a weak dollar cycle, and a gradual appreciation of the RMB, alongside active institutional funds and insurance sector dynamics [19] - The spring market rally is driven by hotspots in commercial aerospace and AI applications, leading to an increase in market risk appetite [19] - However, the rapid momentum of the market may accumulate risks, prompting regulatory measures to cool down the stock market [19] Mid-term Market Outlook - Technology growth remains a favored direction, with expectations of improving economic fundamentals gradually accumulating [20] - The current economic fundamentals and technology narratives have not fundamentally changed, and the technology sector remains a priority for allocation [20] - There are concerns regarding the fundamentals of many defensive dividend sectors and cyclical sectors, which may require strong catalysts for further market development [20] Long-term Market Perspective - The long-term dynamics of the US-China struggle are becoming clearer, with increasing skepticism about the US government's governance and institutional credibility [21] - Despite uncertainties in the US economic outlook and the Fed's interest rate cuts, the RMB has appreciated against the USD, which could support China's equity market if foreign capital continues to flow in [21] - The trend towards long-term capital from public funds and insurance companies is expected to strengthen, with significant stock holdings by major A-share listed insurance companies [21] Industry Insights - Defensive dividend sectors are entering an observation period, with potential for fund allocation if aggressive sectors continue to face pressure [22] - The focus remains on technology sectors, particularly in AI and commercial aerospace, which are expected to provide strong short-term performance [23] - There is a need to monitor the stabilization of AI applications and related sectors for potential investment opportunities [23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The commodity market rose 2.08% last week, with precious metals leading the increase at 9.08%, non - ferrous metals and energy - chemicals rising 2.96% and 1.95% respectively, while agricultural products and black metals slightly declined by 0.04% and 0.53% [2][7]. - The US PCE data rebounded slightly, cooling the interest - rate cut expectations. The US dollar index significantly corrected last week, and the easing of the Greenland conflict boosted market risk appetite. The uncertainty brought by the Iranian situation is beneficial to precious metals and energy - chemicals, and the short - term commodity market may fluctuate strongly [2]. - In the short term, precious metals will continue to fluctuate upward, but need to beware of post - overbought corrections; non - ferrous metals may fluctuate strongly; black metals may fluctuate; energy prices may rebound but with limited space; the chemical industry may fluctuate strongly; and agricultural products may also fluctuate strongly [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - **Overall Market**: The commodity market rose 2.08% last week. Precious metals led the gain at 9.08%, non - ferrous metals and energy - chemicals rose 2.96% and 1.95% respectively, while agricultural products and black metals slightly declined by 0.04% and 0.53% [2][7]. - **Individual Varieties**: The top - rising varieties were silver, PTA, and gold, with increases of 11.04%, 8.57%, and 7.74% respectively; the top - falling varieties were glass, live pigs, and iron ore, with decreases of 3.54%, 3.46%, and 2.09% respectively [2][7]. - **Volatility**: The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market continued to rise, with styrene, live pigs, and gold having relatively large fluctuations [2][7]. - **Funds**: The overall market scale increased last week, with only the black metal sector experiencing capital outflows. Gold and silver received capital inflows of 24.4 billion and 12.7 billion respectively [2][7]. 3.2 Outlook for Different Sectors - **Precious Metals**: The US dollar index dropped significantly, and geopolitical disturbances increased market risk - aversion sentiment. The sector continued to fluctuate upward. The low inventory of silver also promoted the silver price. In the short term, the upward trend of the sector is hard to reverse, but post - overbought corrections should be watched out for [2]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: The US dollar index was weak, risk - aversion sentiment was high, and domestic policies aimed to expand domestic demand. The supply - side contraction risk supported prices, and the sector may fluctuate strongly in the short term [3]. - **Black Metals**: The apparent demand for rebar slightly declined, production increased, and inventory accumulated again. Steel mill profits were poor, and the resumption of production was affected. Iron ore port inventory increased significantly, and the structural contradiction needed to be resolved. The sector may fluctuate in the short term [3]. - **Energy**: The US Treasury's new sanctions on Iran and the production suspension of two major oil fields in Kazakhstan due to force majeure, along with the cold wave in the US, led to a rise in natural gas prices and increased demand for heating oil. Oil prices may rebound, but the rebound space is limited due to the inventory - accumulation pressure in Q1 [3]. - **Chemical Industry**: For polyester products, terminal demand declined, and there was an inventory - accumulation expectation around the Spring Festival, but supply - contraction expectations and positive market sentiment may lead to short - term strong fluctuations. For building materials, PVC may see capacity reduction and possible export - grabbing, with an expected upward shift in the center of gravity; glass may see seasonal inventory accumulation but may follow macro - sentiment fluctuations [4]. - **Agricultural Products**: The expectation of a South American bumper harvest is the main trading logic, but the slow progress of the new - season Brazilian soybean harvest may increase the pressure on US soybeans and soybean meal. The improvement of China - Canada relations may impact domestic soybean - meal prices. The supply - demand structure of Malaysian palm oil has improved, and the overall oilseeds and oils may fluctuate strongly in the short term [4]. 3.3 Commodity Fund Overview - **Gold ETFs**: Most gold ETFs had a weekly return of around 7.5%. The total scale of gold ETFs was 29.5871 billion yuan, with a 4.42% increase, and the total trading volume increased by 82.85% [36]. - **Other ETFs**: The energy - chemical ETF had a 3.48% return, the soybean - meal ETF had a 0.92% return, the non - ferrous metal ETF had a - 0.52% return, and the silver fund had a 6.72% return [36][38]. The total scale of commodity ETFs was 31.8614 billion yuan, with a 3.99% increase, and the total trading volume increased by 49.13% [36].