临近岁末，多家机构陆续发布对2026年股市的展望。近日，摩根资产管理中国权益投资团队在策略会上 分享了对明年市场机会的判断，强调在中国产业全球竞争力提升的背景下，应锚定优质公司的长期价值 重估。 机构分析指出，当前宏观环境与经济结构变迁，正共同塑造新的市场格局。一方面，以人工智能为代表 的科技产业趋势已进入实质性发展阶段，为成长投资提供了清晰的产业脉络；另一方面，部分传统行业 在经历供给侧调整与出海升级后，其盈利稳定性与分红潜力正被重新评估，展现出独特的配置价值。科 技成长与稳健回报两条路径，预示着来年市场风格或将更趋均衡与多元化。 在具体的配置思路上，倪权生当前重点关注两类正在发生积极变化的资产。第一类是部分周期性行业， 典型如有色金属。这类资产的核心逻辑在于供给端的约束与行业格局的持续优化，使得企业的现金流不 断改善。其资产属性正在从过去的强周期股，逐渐演变为现金流稳健、股息率有望提升的价值型股票， 从而迎来价值的重估机遇。 其次是消费电子领域。李博看好该板块的多重驱动力。硬件端，苹果公司预计于明年推出折叠屏手机， 有望结束其销量多年的平台期，为整个产业链带来量与价的确定性增量。更重要的是，人工智能的爆款 ...

资金流向方面，创业板50ETF（159949）近20个交易日资金净流入3.33亿元，近5个交易日资金净流入8.8亿 元。流动性方面，截止12月24日，创业板50ETF（159949）近20个交易日累计成交金额322.13亿元，日均成 交金额16.11亿元；今年以来238个交易日，累计成交金额3479.10亿元，日均成交金额14.62亿元。 12月24日，A股市场震荡上扬，沪指收出六连阳，创业板指涨0.77%，商业航天、算力硬件及福建板块走 强。受此带动，创业板50ETF（159949）上涨0.59%，报收1.539元，换手率为5.05%，成交额达13.77亿元， 位居同类标的ETF之首。 | | 1.539 +0.009 +0.59% | | | 创业板50ETF CECONO A | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SZSE CNY 15:01:15 闭市 查看L2全景 | | | | | | 通用/ ● 十 | | 净值走势 | | 华安创业板SOETF | 今年 | 60.15% 120日 | | 60.15% | | 要比 | -30 ...

Group 1 - On December 23, the A-share market experienced slight fluctuations, with all three major indices closing in the green and a total trading volume of approximately 1.90 trillion yuan [1] - The total net inflow of funds into stock ETFs exceeded 38 billion yuan, with significant inflows into broad-based ETFs like the CSI A500 and thematic ETFs related to technology, satellites, and robotics [1][4] - Over the past five trading days, the CSI A500 index-related ETFs have attracted over 50 billion yuan in net inflows [1] Group 2 - As of December 23, the total scale of 1,282 stock ETFs reached 4.70 trillion yuan, with a total trading volume of 1,935.61 billion yuan, slightly down from the previous day's 1,958.19 billion yuan [2] - The top-performing ETFs on that day were all related to the battery sector, with lithium battery ETFs leading the gains, all showing increases of over 2% [2][3] - Conversely, ETFs related to the satellite and general aviation sectors performed poorly, with declines exceeding 3% [2] Group 3 - On December 23, the total net inflow of funds into the stock ETF market was 39 billion yuan, with 31 stock ETFs seeing net inflows exceeding 1 billion yuan [4] - The top sectors for fund inflows included the CSI A500, gold, Hong Kong technology, satellite industry, and robotics, with the CSI A500 alone attracting 133.6 billion yuan [4] - The AAA Sci-Tech bond saw the highest net inflow of 182.15 billion yuan, while the CSI 300 index experienced the largest net outflow of 40.24 billion yuan [4] Group 4 - The top three stock ETFs by net inflow on December 23 were the A500 ETFs from E Fund, Huaxia, and Guotai, with inflows of 31.17 billion yuan, 27.37 billion yuan, and 27.05 billion yuan respectively [5] - A total of 27 stock ETFs experienced net outflows exceeding 1 billion yuan, with the CSI 300 index, SSE 50 index, and ChiNext index among those with the highest outflows [6] Group 5 - E Fund's ETF products have seen significant inflows, with the latest scale reaching 840.48 billion yuan, an increase of 239.83 billion yuan since 2025 [7] - Huaxia Fund's A500 ETF and gaming ETF also saw substantial inflows, with net inflows of 27.37 billion yuan and 2 billion yuan respectively [7] - GF Fund's ETFs also attracted net inflows, particularly the Hong Kong technology ETF, which saw a net buy of 6.42 billion yuan [8]

距离2025年收官仅剩6个交易日，公募基金年终排名进入了关键的冲刺阶段。 展望2026年，永赢基金权益投资部联席总经理李文宾预计AI投资机会或将继续向新技术、新趋势、新 模式扩散。 基金年终排名战 2025年，主动权益基金业绩回归。 Wind数据显示，截至12月22日，全市场所有基金的收益中位数9.54%。主动权益类基金，包括普通股票 型、偏股混合型、平衡混合型和灵活配置型基金的年内平均收益则超过了20%，其中超九成基金实现正 收益。 在业绩头部阵营中，共有97只基金今年以来收益超过100%，其中主动权益基金89只，被动指数型基金7 只，QDII基金和商品型基金分别1只。 目前来看，冠军宝座已基本锁定，截至12月22日，永赢科技智选混合基金今年以来收益为231.72%，领 先第二名中航机遇领航混合基金近50个百分点。 今年A股市场整体呈现震荡上行的慢牛走势，上证指数一度突破4000点，市场活跃度显著提升。贯穿全 年的最强主线是科技成长板块，受益于AI技术突破、新能源产业链复苏等多重利好，相关领域上市公 司盈利预期显著改善，成为驱动市场上行的引擎。 统计数据显示，在这一轮行情中，九成以上主动权益类基金年内实现正 ...

万科20亿元债券展期方案再次被否。2023年下半年至今，稳地产政策频出，房企债券违约事件有所减 少。万科在宣布债券拟商讨展期之前，已出现包括国际评级持续下调、经营明显亏损等风险事件，市场 对其保持谨慎观望态度。最新表决结果显示，已于12月15日到期的"22万科MTN004"展期方案仍未获得 债券持有人同意，不过万科争取到将宽限期延长至30个交易日，该中票在2026年1月28日前不构成违 约。 中国12月LPR出炉，1年期为3.0%，5年期以上LPR为3.5%，均连续7个月保持不变。政策利率保持稳 定、银行业净息差承压这两个直接原因导致12月两个期限品种的LPR报价保持不变。 ◄市场概览 ► 今日市场冲高回落，整体收平。 上证综指上涨0.07%，沪深300上涨0.2%，中证800上涨0.15%，中证500上涨0.02%，创业板指上涨 0.41%，中证1000下跌0.22%，全A成交额约1.92万亿元，较上日增加0.04万亿元。 风格上看 长征十二号甲运载火箭首飞入轨成功，回收未取得预期成效。今日上午，长征十二号甲（CZ-12A）运 载火箭顺利完成首飞任务，成功实现二级入轨目标，不过其一级火箭回收验证未取得预期成 ...

统计数据显示，在这一轮行情中，九成以上主动权益类基金年内实现正收益，其中有超50只基金净值翻倍，永赢科技智选A以高 达231.72%收益领跑，遥遥领先其他基金，基本提前锁定今年的冠军宝座。 展望2026年，永赢基金权益投资部联席总经理李文宾预计AI投资机会或将继续向新技术、新趋势、新模式扩散。景顺长城基金 则表示对市场持乐观判断，尤其是权益市场，认为科技仍将是未来市场主线，同时资源品和顺周期领域或有细分机会，而红利 则在低利率环境下，依旧是组合的稳定器。 21世纪经济报道记者李域 距离2025年收官仅剩6个交易日，公募基金年终排名进入了关键的冲刺阶段。 今年A股市场整体呈现震荡上行的慢牛走势，上证指数一度突破4000点，市场活跃度显著提升。贯穿全年的最强主线是科技成长 板块，受益于AI技术突破、新能源产业链复苏等多重利好，相关领域上市公司盈利预期显著改善，成为驱动市场上行的引擎。 | 序号 | 基金代码 | 基金简称 | 今年以来 | 最近三年 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 总回报(%) | 息回报(%) | ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the external environment for A-shares is stabilizing as uncertainties related to overseas monetary policies are resolved, marking a critical window for the "spring rally" [1] - Key investment directions highlighted include technology growth sectors such as AI (computing power and applications), commercial aerospace, and robotics [1] - Other focus areas include cyclical/value stocks, particularly in industrial metals, chemicals, and non-bank financials [1] - High dividend stocks are noted for their short-term price advantages and potential for a rebound [1]

Core Viewpoint - The public fund industry is transitioning from a "scale-oriented" approach to a "quality-first" strategy, emphasizing sustainable core competitiveness amidst challenges like homogenized competition and declining fee rates [1][13]. Group 1: Investment Strategy and Research Framework - The essence of active management lies in professional fundamental research to identify and hold high-potential growth companies for long-term capital appreciation [2]. - The company employs a "top-down" and "bottom-up" research framework, ensuring investment portfolios capture industry growth while selecting individual stocks for significant alpha returns [2][3]. - The investment team has established a modern research management system covering the entire process, emphasizing a professional talent structure and efficient collaboration [3]. Group 2: Investment Process and Technology Integration - The investment process is driven by a dual approach of "refinement and intelligence," integrating deep research with intelligent quantitative support systems [4][5]. - The company has developed a comprehensive fund manager tagging system to evaluate investment logic consistency and stability, enhancing decision-making [4]. - A "human-machine collaboration" investment model is employed to improve decision-making efficiency and accuracy, combining human insights with machine processing capabilities [5]. Group 3: Product Strategy and Market Positioning - The company focuses on a "boutique, professional, and differentiated" product strategy, concentrating resources on active investment capabilities in core areas like equity, absolute return, and quantitative strategies [6]. - The active equity funds cover mainstream sectors such as technology growth, consumer upgrades, and advanced manufacturing, with notable products achieving excellent long-term performance [6][8]. - The fixed income team emphasizes a "solid" investment style, aiming for positive asset value growth in various market conditions, with products receiving high ratings from authoritative agencies [8]. Group 4: Recent Developments and Future Outlook - The appointment of the new general manager, Fang Jing, is expected to bring fresh perspectives and drive strategic innovation in product development and resource integration [12][14]. - The company has achieved a weighted average return of 252.42% over the past seven years, ranking 7th among 118 public fund companies, demonstrating resilience and the ability to generate excess returns [12]. - The company is committed to expanding its FOF product line to meet the growing demand for retirement investment solutions, leveraging its strengths in fund evaluation and asset allocation [11].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a structural opportunity with significant capital inflow, particularly in the technology and Hainan sectors, indicating a clear direction for investors [1][2]. Market Performance - The total trading volume in the A-share market reached 1.36 trillion, with a daily turnover of 18.619 trillion, reflecting increased investor interest [1]. - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.69% to 3917.36 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index surged by 1.47% to 13332.73 points, and the ChiNext Index increased by 2.23% to 3191.98 points [1]. - In contrast, the Hong Kong market showed minimal movement, with the Hang Seng Index up by only 0.11% [1]. Key Investment Directions - **Technology Growth Sector**: The communication sector led the market with a 4.28% increase, and the electronics sector rose by 2.62%, driven by favorable policies and technological advancements [1][2]. - **Hainan Sector**: The Hainan provincial state-owned enterprise index surged by 10.01%, and the Hainan Free Trade Port index increased by 9.28%, indicating strong market anticipation of policy benefits [2]. Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to focus on sectors with solid policy and technological support, particularly in communications and electronics, while avoiding speculative small-cap stocks [3]. - Long-term outlook remains positive due to continuous foreign capital inflow and government support for technological innovation and consumption recovery [3].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Market Outlook**: The stock market is expected to accelerate in the short term, with a positive outlook for technology and non-bank sectors. Opportunities in cyclical and consumer goods are also worth noting. The impact of institutional profit protection and reduced positions on the market has been largely digested, with the ChiNext showing strong performance, indicating that the technology market is far from over [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Investment Strategy**: The focus remains on technology and non-bank sectors, while also considering transformation opportunities in cyclical and consumer goods. The liquidity aspect suggests that the market's adjustment is more about liquidity than value judgment [3][4]. - **Economic Policy**: The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized stabilizing investment and reducing inventory in real estate, aiming to address the negative growth in investment and foreign direct investment (FDI) [4][5]. - **Market Style Prediction for 2026**: The market is expected to favor quality growth or a return to fundamental strategies, with opportunities in both technology and non-technology sectors, as well as large-cap and small-cap stocks [5][6]. Sector-Specific Insights Aviation Industry - **Investment Logic**: The aviation sector's investment logic for the next two years is based on favorable oil prices, exchange rates, and national policies to boost consumption. High passenger load factors are expected to shift towards price increases, improving supply-demand dynamics and profitability [8][9]. Oil Shipping Industry - **Current Fundamentals**: The oil shipping industry remains robust, with crude oil freight rates maintaining high levels. The fourth quarter and annual profits are expected to reach a ten-year high. The supply-demand relationship in the compliant market continues to improve, with optimistic expectations reflected in rising one-year charter rates [10]. Chemical Industry - **Market Performance**: The chemical market is showing strength, particularly in new energy chemical materials. The spandex sector is expected to see a turning point, with companies like Huafeng Chemical showing potential due to cost advantages [11][12]. Metal Industry - **Future Outlook**: The metal industry is expected to be in a bull market phase, with optimism driven by anticipated interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. Industrial metals like copper, aluminum, and tin are expected to perform well, with strong demand driven by AI trends [14][15]. Petrochemical Industry - **Oil Price Predictions**: Oil prices are expected to face pressure in the first half of the year but may recover in the second half due to improving supply-demand dynamics. Companies like CNOOC and PetroChina are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [16][17]. Coal Market - **Short-Term and Long-Term Predictions**: The coal market is currently experiencing a price correction but is expected to stabilize between 650-670 RMB. Long-term, coal prices may enter a new upward cycle, with companies like China Shenhua and Yanzhou Coal Mining recommended for their production capacity [22]. Additional Noteworthy Points - **Investment Recommendations**: Specific companies and sectors are highlighted for potential investment, including technology stocks, financial services, and cyclical consumer goods that can successfully transition [6][7][27]. - **Public Utilities Concerns**: The public utilities sector faces concerns regarding electricity prices, but companies with strong dividend commitments are recommended for investment [26]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and recommendations from the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the current market landscape and future expectations across various sectors.