路博迈基金朱冰倩： 第一条主线是科技成长与高端制造。在全球AI产业浪潮与国内"新质生产力"政策共振的背景下，流动性 宽松环境将使高成长板块优先受益，重点关注A股和港股中的AI算力、半导体、机器人及创新药出海等 领域。 第二条主线是资源品。美联储降息周期下实际利率承压，叠加地缘因素与供给瓶颈，黄金与有色金属具 备战略配置价值。 "前三季度南向资金净流入超1.2万亿元，创历史纪录，外资增配中国资产的趋势已经明确。随着全球资 金从美国向估值更低、增长更快的新兴市场转移，亚洲市场表现值得期待。"朱冰倩称。 对于近期表现震荡的黄金市场，朱冰倩表示，短期内黄金确实面临技术性回调压力，在金价突破4000美 元/盎司后获利盘抛压加重，不排除进一步回调的可能性。但是，黄金长期上行的根基依然稳固。 "美联储降息周期开启将推动实际利率下行，全球央行购金趋势未改，加上地缘因素和美元信用体系面 临挑战，多重因素共同构成了黄金长期向上的坚实基础。有色金属同样受益于供给约束和全球库存周期 见底，供需矛盾突出的铜、铝、稀土等品种具备较好的配置价值。"朱冰倩称。 在科技成长领域，朱冰倩表示，AI资本开支重启正在推动美股科技股盈利上修，而A股的 ...

Report Title - Active Equity Fund Monthly Investment Portfolio - October 2025 [1][2] Market and Fund Performance in September - Major broad - based indices rose, with the ChiNext Index and STAR 50 Index leading the gains, while the SSE 50 Index performed weakly [3] - Among industry sectors, the CITIC Growth Index and CITIC Cyclical Index had positive monthly returns, while the CITIC Consumption Index and CITIC Financial Index fell by 2% - 3% [3] - In terms of fund strategies, growth - style funds, especially those focused on prosperity and trend, outperformed, with an average increase of over 7%, while deep - value style funds lagged [3] - Among industry - themed funds, technology, cyclical, and new - energy themed funds had positive returns, while pharmaceutical and consumption - themed funds had negative returns [3] - Growth style outperformed value style, and large - and mid - cap styles outperformed small - cap styles [3] Top - Performing Funds Recent One - Month Performance - **All - Market Top Ten**: Funds like Noan Advanced Manufacturing A (001707.OF) and Huabao Competitive Advantage A (010335.OF) had significant monthly increases, with Noan Advanced Manufacturing A rising 31.08% and Huabao Competitive Advantage A rising 28.27% [6] - **Industry - Themed Top Ten**: Noan Research Preferred A (008185.OF) led with a 36.32% monthly increase, followed by Silver Fund Integrated Circuit A (013840.OF) with a 33.68% increase [6] Year - to - Date Performance - **All - Market Top Ten**: Hengyue Advantage Selection (011815.OF) had a YTD increase of 121.69%, and Jiaoyin Optimal Return A (519770.OF) had a 115.96% increase [8] - **Industry - Themed Top Ten**: Yongying Technology Smart Selection A (022364.OF) led with a 187.86% YTD increase, followed by China - Europe Digital Economy A (018993.OF) with a 132.39% increase [8] October Equity Fund Portfolio Construction Market Outlook - In the short term, the core logic of incremental funds, improved internal returns, and policy resonance remains unchanged, but the risk premium is near the median, and some valuations are relatively high, requiring continuous growth in net profit. The market may slow down and fluctuate [10] Portfolio Construction Principles - **Sustained Tech Growth Opportunities**: The tech growth theme remains the main line of the bull market, but short - term volatility may be high. Consider funds with diversified investment directions and rotation strategies [10] - **Anti - Involution Policy Catalysts**: Industries at the bottom of the cycle, such as chemicals, steel, coal, and some energy metals, are expected to benefit from anti - involution policies, with improved risk - reward ratios [10] - **Style Rotation of Dividend - Value Stocks**: Dividend - value sectors, although with low profit expectations, have attractive dividend yields compared to treasury bond yields. During market fluctuations, funds may flow to low - level sectors, creating investment opportunities [10] Fund Portfolios - **Aggressive Portfolio**: Includes funds like Cathay Golden Prosperity Return A (019328.OF) and Fullgoal Steady Growth A (010624.OF), with a focus on technology, manufacturing, and consumption sectors [11] - **Conservative Portfolio**: Comprises funds such as Merchants Upstream Industry A (005161.OF) and ChinaAMC Value Selection A (007592.OF), with a relatively balanced distribution across sectors [11] Portfolio Distribution - **Aggressive Portfolio**: Technology accounts for 34.12%, followed by cycle at 20.21% and manufacturing at 15.94% [15] - **Conservative Portfolio**: Cycle has the highest proportion at 28.28%, followed by manufacturing at 17.79% and technology at 21.46% [17]

Group 1 - The short-term market structure indicates that technology growth has insufficient long-term cost-effectiveness, leading to high-level fluctuations while waiting for industrial trend catalysts to accumulate [1][5][6] - The recent narrow fluctuations of the Shanghai Composite Index and the wide fluctuations in technology growth reflect a lack of dominant structures to lead the market breakthrough [2][5][6] - The historical experience shows that when long-term cost-effectiveness is low, the difficulty of earning valuation money significantly increases, requiring continuous verification of industrial catalysts and high growth in performance to sustain effective upward trends [2][5][6] Group 2 - The mid-term market judgment maintains a "two-stage bull market" theory, with 2025's technology structure bull market being the first stage, and the spring of 2026 potentially marking a phase peak [7][8] - The market may face three challenges in spring 2026: verification of demand-side key periods, increased sensitivity to performance disturbances and liquidity shocks in low cost-effectiveness areas, and the need for time to wait for new structural highlights in the domestic technology industry [7][8] - The bull market is expected to have depth, with conditions for a comprehensive bull market becoming increasingly sufficient over time, and at least three mid-term returns yet to be realized [8] Group 3 - The economic direction for the next year is expected to evolve with a rotation in the fourth quarter, driven by the price increase cycle and the anticipated turning point in PPI [10] - The rotation of sectors will continue, with potential upward opportunities in the AI industry chain, humanoid robots, innovative pharmaceuticals, and national defense industries [10] - The report highlights that the market has already begun to anticipate the economic improvement of 2026, with the electricity equipment sector nearing low cost-effectiveness and the price increase cycle showing short-term cost-effectiveness limitations [10]

Market Overview - On November 7, A-shares experienced a slight decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.25% to 3997 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.36%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.51% [1] - The total market turnover was 2.02 trillion yuan, a decrease of 557 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with over 3100 stocks declining [1] Sector Performance - The organic silicon sector saw significant gains, with companies like Dongyue Silicon Material and Hesheng Silicon Industry hitting the daily limit [3][5] - The fluorochemical sector also surged, with stocks such as Yongtai Technology and Duofluorite reaching the daily limit [3][5] - The lithium mining sector strengthened, with Shengxin Lithium Energy hitting the daily limit [3] - Conversely, the robotics actuator and reducer sectors declined, with Top Group leading the losses [3] Key Stocks - Notable gainers included: - Dongyue Silicon Material: +20.04% [6] - Huasheng Lithium Battery: +19.16% [6] - Fuxiang Pharmaceutical: +14.01% [6] - The fluorochemical sector saw stocks like Qichuan Chemical and Yongtai Technology also reaching the daily limit [8] Price Trends - The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate continued to rise, nearing 120,000 yuan per ton, driven by supply-demand imbalances [7] - The report from Longzhong Information indicated that the market price for lithium hexafluorophosphate fluctuated between 113,800 and 119,800 yuan per ton [7] Industry Insights - The organic silicon industry is undergoing consolidation, with leading polysilicon companies planning to form a consortium to eliminate excess capacity and settle industry debts [5] - The implementation of new energy consumption standards is expected to increase industry concentration by phasing out non-compliant production capacities [5] Future Outlook - According to Shenwan Hongyuan, the spring of 2026 may mark a phase peak, but it is unlikely to be the peak for the entire year [19] - The report suggests that as supply clears, the effective return of "policy bottom, market bottom, and economic bottom" will likely occur, potentially signaling the start of a new market cycle [19]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a divergence in performance, with technology stocks undergoing a correction after a previous surge, while dividend stocks are performing well, indicating a "seesaw" effect in the market [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of 14:29, the Sci-Tech Innovation Board 50 Index has decreased by 1.1%, while the China Securities Dividend Low Volatility Index has increased by 0.1% [1] - The Sci-Tech Innovation Board 50 Index consists of 50 stocks with high market capitalization and liquidity, with over 65% of its composition from the semiconductor industry [1] - The China Securities Dividend Low Volatility Index focuses on stocks with high dividend levels and low volatility, with nearly 50% of its composition from the banking sector [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - Zhejiang Securities predicts that by 2026, the equity market will continue to exhibit a structural trend of low volatility dividends intertwined with technology growth [1] - The ongoing industrial policy in China is expected to strengthen, aiming for technological growth, while fluctuations in China-US relations may lead to a temporary shift in market style towards dividends [1] Group 3: Investment Strategies - The Sci-Tech Innovation Board 50 ETF (588080) and the Dividend Low Volatility ETF (563020) track the respective indices, providing investors with tools to construct a balanced investment strategy to seize opportunities in the structural market [1]

Market Overview - The market opened lower but rebounded, with the three major indices briefly turning positive, while the CSI A500 index fell by 0.11% [1] - The chemical sector continued to strengthen, with the Hainan sector showing repeated activity, and the organic silicon sector experiencing a collective surge. Conversely, multiple stocks in the robotics sector declined [1] ETF Performance - As of the morning close, ETFs tracking the CSI A500 index saw slight declines. Notably, 11 CSI A500-related ETFs had transaction volumes exceeding 100 million yuan, with 3 surpassing 2.9 billion yuan. The transaction amounts for A500 ETF Fund, CSI A500 ETF, and A500 ETF Huatai Baichuan were 3.543 billion yuan, 3.183 billion yuan, and 2.987 billion yuan, respectively [1][2] Investment Strategy - A brokerage firm indicated that the current market style in A-shares is expected to be more balanced than in the third quarter. The firm suggests focusing on: 1. New momentum industries represented by technology growth and high-end manufacturing, which are expected to remain core sources of prosperity and should be explored for expansion opportunities [1] 2. Balanced allocation, as policies like "anti-involution" take effect and domestic demand recovers, leading to marginal improvements in certain cyclical sectors. Key areas to watch include those benefiting from supply-side optimization and structural demand growth, capitalizing on their valuation recovery potential [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing weak fluctuations, with notable movements in specific sectors such as Hainan Free Trade and technology growth trends becoming clearer [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of November 7, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.16%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.72%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 1.07% [1]. - The Hainan Free Trade concept is gaining traction, with Haima Automobile hitting the daily limit up for six consecutive days, and Hainan Development also reaching the limit up [1][3]. Group 2: Sector Highlights - The Hainan sector is performing well, driven by high-level discussions on the construction of the Hainan Free Trade Port, aiming for high-quality development and a modern industrial system [3]. - In the downtrend, sectors such as storage chips and semiconductors are experiencing corrections [1]. Group 3: Institutional Perspectives - Huajin Securities suggests a slow bull market and recommends accumulating positions in communication and electronics sectors, as recent factors causing adjustments may gradually dissipate [4]. - Dongguan Securities notes that the market style is expected to be more balanced than in the third quarter, with a focus on technology growth and high-end manufacturing [5]. - Zhongyuan Securities anticipates a continuation of structural volatility in the market, advising to consider increasing allocations in the technology sector if price-performance ratios improve [6].

证券研究报告 2025 年 11 月 7 日 星期五 【A 股市场大势研判】 A 股全天震荡走强，沪指重回 4000 点 市场表现： | 指数名称 | 收盘点位 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 | 上证指数分时图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 4007.76 | 0.97% | 38.51 | | | 深证成指 | 13452.42 | 1.73% | 228.86 | | | 沪深 300 | 4693.40 | 1.43% | 66.15 | | | 创业板 | 3224.62 | 1.84% | 58.39 | | | 科创 50 | 1436.86 | 3.34% | 46.46 | | | 北证 50 | 1519.81 | -0.38% | -5.75 | | 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFinD 数据 板块排名： | 申万行业表现前五 | | | 申万行业表现后五 | 概 | 念板块表现前五 | 概念板块表现后五 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 有色金属 | 3.05% ...

MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 责任编辑：杨红卜 梅帆EOOI 机次ARI "EOOPE" 华宝 本金 wabao WP Fund TE STERE THE STATE 2025年11月 | 3A系列ETF当日场内行情 | 中证A100ETF基金 A50ETF华宝 中证A500ETF华宝 159596 562000 563500 +1.28% +1.29% +1.64% 数据来源:沪深交易所等,行情数据截至2025.11.6收盘 A50ETF华宝于2024.3.18上市,中证A100ETF基金于2022.8.1上 市,中证A500ETF华宝于2024.12.2上市。 当日大市行情 first +0.97% +1.73% +1.84% 创业板指 上证指数 深证成指 两市成交额2.06万亿元 较上一日+1829亿元 全市场个股涨跌数 2876 - 179日 2384只 =1 上涨 == 持平 "| 下跌 资金净流入TOP3行业(申万一级) 电子 +17.75元元 +65.48亿元 数据来源:注深专属所等 机构观点 II 华西证券:科技成长仍有望维持高景气度,A股微观流动性仍充沛 展望后市,科技成长仍有望维 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market has experienced a significant style switch since November, with brokerages suggesting a focus on technology, consumption, and core asset industries as the year-end approaches in a bullish market environment [1] Market Valuation - As of October 31, the Hang Seng Technology PE-TTM stands at 22.9 times, which is in the 29th percentile historically [1] - Hong Kong's broad market valuation is notably low, with data indicating it has been below the 95%, 88%, 79%, 73%, and 72% percentiles since 2005 compared to global peers [1] Capital Inflows - Since 2025, southbound capital inflows have exceeded 1.1 trillion yuan, primarily driven by institutional forces such as public funds and insurance capital [1] - It is anticipated that net inflows from southbound capital will exceed 1.5 trillion yuan next year [1] - In Q3 2025, both long and short-term foreign capital consistently flowed into Hong Kong's technology sector, indicating a growing consensus among foreign investors [1] Institutional Behavior - Data from Zhonghang Securities shows that in Q3, actively managed equity funds increased their positions most in the technology sector while reducing exposure to blue-chip sectors like banking [1] - Brokerages believe that the technology growth trend has not yet ended and still presents investment value [1] Key Companies in Technology Sector - Xiaomi is recognized as a major player in mobile and smart hardware, with plans to enter the smart electric vehicle market in 2024 [2][3] - Lenovo, as a leading PC and server manufacturer, is expected to benefit from AI-driven demand and growth in emerging markets like the Middle East [4] - BYD, a leader in electric vehicles, aims for a global sales target of 5.5 million units by 2025, focusing on smart transformation and high-end market penetration [5] - SMIC, as China's largest and the world's third-largest foundry, is positioned to benefit from the restructuring of global supply chains [6] - Alibaba, a leading cloud service provider, is set to gain from the surge in AI applications and cloud service demand [6] - Tencent is expected to leverage AI in social advertising and gaming, enhancing its product offerings and market position [6]