Group 1: Dollar Outlook - The US dollar is expected to continue weakening, with strategists from JPMorgan and Deutsche Bank indicating a bearish sentiment among traders, the highest in five years [1] - The dollar index has dropped 6% against a basket of currencies this year, reflecting concerns over the unpredictability of US policy [1] - There is skepticism among investors regarding the Trump administration's intentions to weaken the dollar to support US manufacturing [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - The S&P 500 index rose 4.5% this week, driven by optimism in tech stocks and subdued inflation data, with US stock funds attracting approximately $19.8 billion in inflows, the first in five weeks [4] - Despite a brief rise in the dollar following news of a temporary tariff reduction between the US and China, it later retraced most of its gains, indicating a lack of confidence from international investors in the US narrative [4] Group 3: Investment Trends - Deutsche Bank noted a slowdown in capital inflows into US assets, with Taiwan's banks reviewing their risk management agreements for US investments, suggesting a potential decrease in US Treasury purchases [6] - JPMorgan strategists argue that the softening of US tariff positions will support economic growth in other regions, boosting their currencies [7] - Investors are increasingly looking to short the dollar against currencies from countries holding significant dollar reserves, with a focus on the South Korean won and Indonesian rupiah [7]

即使美股本周强劲反弹，衰退担忧被暂时搁置，但华尔街对美元的看空情绪丝毫未减。 摩根大通和德银的策略师们预测美元将继续走弱，期权交易员情绪已达五年来最悲观水平。 市场普遍认为，美国政策制定仍然不稳定且难以预测，导致其货币吸引力下降。尽管美国方面予以否认，但一些投资者仍然怀疑，特朗普政府希 望通过弱势美元来支撑美国制造业基础。 Goldman Sachs Group Inc.全球货币主管Kamakshya Trivedi表示： "美国例外论正在逐渐消退，这种走势还将持续。" 今年以来，美元相对一篮子货币已跌逾6%。截至发稿，美元指数至100.81。 Union Bancaire Privee Ubp SA的外汇策略主管Peter Kinsella指出，美元对比股市的表现不佳"表明国际投资者根本不认同特朗普的'美国例外论'主 题"。 根据Credit Agricole SA的G-10外汇策略主管Valentin Marinov的分析，当前市场对美元的态度已经转变为"爱恨交织"的复杂关系。期权市场上对美 元未来一年下跌的押注已达2020年以来最高水平。 美元弱势持续，华尔街巨头一致看空 本周，标普500指数上涨4.5 ...

4月份美国零售销售额以及生产者价格数据意外疲弱，强化了美联储今年至少两次降息的宽松政策预 期，令各期限美国国债收益率下滑，意味着美债价格大举反弹。市场更多的经济忧虑情绪体现在零售巨 头沃尔玛(WMT.US)最新公布的业绩中——尽管销售额和盈利增长稳健，但是这家世界最大规模零售商 之一的一季度营业利润下滑并警告因关税成本上升不久后将提价，股价下跌0.5%。 为何股息型防御策略受到青睐?主要因美国经济前景尚未明朗 智通财经APP了解到，受到所谓价值股集体走强带来的强大提振效应，周四美股市场再度收涨，美股基 准指数——标普500指数录得连续四个交易日上涨。聚焦于"高股息"类型的价值股在周四从连续三日领 涨美股的大型科技巨头(包含特斯拉、英伟达以及苹果等巨头)手中接过"触底反弹大旗"，价值股的整体 强劲表现全方位抵消科技、零售与能源股表现疲软带来的负面影响。 最新统计数据显示，截至周四美股收盘，在价值股强势助力下标普500指数上涨0.4%，堪称"全球科技股 风向标"的纳斯达克100指数仅仅微升0.1%，主要因占据该指数高额权重的七大科技巨头股价集体下行， 而此前三个交易日这七巨头所领衔的大型科技公司股价表现亮眼，乃推 ...

金十数据5月15日讯，丹斯克银行分析师穆罕默德•萨拉夫表示，鉴于美元面临的结构性挑战，欧元兑美 元可能在12个月内从目前的1.1208升至1.20。美国和欧元区政治的剧烈变化、持续的贸易不确定性，以 及资本从美国资产中流出的新迹象，使美元面临相当大的下行风险。从根本上说，"美国例外论"的理由 正在消退，美元面临的风险敞口越来越大。 欧元或受益于美元结构性挑战 ...

作为精准追踪全球资金动向的华尔街定制化投资研究公司Exante Data的创始人，詹斯.诺德维格(Jens Nordvig)常年与全球最大规模的机构投资者交流——从对冲基金经理、企业司库到养老金与主权财富基 金掌舵者，然而，他最近听到的对冲基金最新反馈令他确信：在中美紧张贸易局势缓和后的美元反弹之 势，不过是昙花一现。 他表示，多数大型对冲基金客户表示一场可能将持续多年的"美元熊市"才刚刚开始，导火索则是特朗普 政府混乱无序、颠覆全球贸易体系的"美国经济改造行动"。尤其是特朗普政府反复无常的关税举措已造 成巨大规模的金融市场动荡，投资者们对于美元资产的信心被不可逆地动摇。值得注意的是，诺德维格 将美国财政部长斯科特.贝森特列为早期客户，当时贝森特仍在对冲基金行业任职。 诺德维格的核心预测在于：与上月在加征关税后迅速抛售美元的投机客们截然不同的是，过去十年间买 入数万亿美元美国股票和美国国债的机构投资者们仍在重新校准与减持美元资产投资组合，势必将进一 步给美元带来巨大抛售压力。虽然他们可能需要数月时间才能削减持仓或大幅累积做空美元的对冲头 寸，但诺德维格强调：美元的新一轮最疼痛时期即将到来。 "我们有很多'真金 ...

摩根大通：中美贸易关系取得进展后美元或落后美股 金十数据5月13日讯，摩根大通分析师在一份报告中说，在中美同意暂时降低关税后，美元可能会落后 于美国股市。关税减免降低了美国经济衰退的可能性，但也有利于全球经济增长。美国的经济增长可能 仍将落后于世界其他地区。美元走软的理由依然存在，尽管力度有所减弱。从中期来看，有关美国例外 主义持续到何种程度的信号将与美元更为相关。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The narrative of "American exceptionalism" is converging, accelerated by fluctuating U.S. tariff policies and trade imbalances, leading to a shift in global investment focus towards Asia and Europe [3][4]. Group 1: U.S. Economic Context - The core of "American exceptionalism" is tied to the dollar's role as a global reserve currency, which has been challenged by trade deficits and the need to maintain dollar stability [3]. - The phenomenon of "American exceptionalism" is expected to peak in early 2025, with its convergence driven by fiscal and trade imbalances in the U.S. [3]. Group 2: Investment Trends in Asia - The convergence of "American exceptionalism" enhances the investment outlook for Asia, as global investors are expected to recalibrate their focus away from the U.S. towards more stable and undervalued Asian markets [4]. - Since early May, Asian currencies have experienced a collective surge, attributed to a weaker dollar, trade surpluses, and reduced dollar absorption effects [5]. Group 3: Global Asset Allocation Strategies - Investors are advised to enhance portfolio volatility resistance, with expectations that government bonds in the U.S. and Europe may outperform stocks amid economic slowdowns [6]. - Gold is recommended as a risk-hedging asset, with a buying opportunity identified in the range of $3,000 to $3,250 per ounce [7]. - A shift in investment from U.S. equities to European and Chinese stocks is suggested, driven by increased policy support in these regions [7]. Group 4: Investment Focus in China - The Chinese stock market is characterized by an "internal focus," with pricing logic primarily based on domestic economic growth [8]. - The total net profit of all listed companies in China is projected to increase by 3.58% year-on-year, with significant growth in agriculture, steel, and technology sectors [8][9]. - Key investment themes in China include sectors benefiting from domestic consumption policies, import substitution, fiscal stimulus, and infrastructure development [9].

Core Viewpoint - Large institutional investors, including pension funds, are significantly reducing their exposure to U.S. dollar assets and reallocating towards European markets, driven by factors such as unpredictable Trump policies and ongoing tariff conflicts [1][2]. Group 1: Institutional Investor Behavior - Investors are experiencing a historic reduction in U.S. stock allocations, with the largest outflow of funds to Europe since 1999, as reported by Bank of America [1]. - European ETFs saw a record outflow of €2.5 billion in April, marking the highest since the beginning of 2023 [1]. - The Finnish Veritas pension fund and Danish pension funds have both reduced their U.S. stock exposure, with the latter increasing European stock investments to the highest level since 2018 [2]. Group 2: Currency and Asset Trends - There is a notable shift towards non-dollar safe-haven assets, with the euro and German bonds rising sharply, indicating a departure from traditional investment patterns [2]. - Institutional investors are actively selling dollars to buy euros, as observed by Bank of America and Deutsche Bank [2]. - The potential for a structural impact on the U.S. dollar and U.S. debt markets is highlighted, as capital flows reverse from the U.S. to other markets [3]. Group 3: Market Valuation Concerns - Concerns over high valuations in the U.S. stock market are prompting investors to question the rationale behind maintaining such premium prices, as noted by the CIO of Veritas [2]. - The California Teachers' Retirement Fund is reassessing its positions, warning of risks associated with tariff policies that could lead to significant sell-offs of U.S. debt by major trading partners [3].

Group 1: Economic Observations - Nashville has emerged as a new economic hub in the U.S., with GDP growth from $144 billion to $204 billion from 2018 to 2023, marking a national growth rate of 3.1% for 2024 [11] - The city has attracted manufacturing companies due to tax incentives, with Nissan's U.S. headquarters located there [9] - Nashville's economy is bolstered by major employers such as HCA, Amazon, and Oracle, contributing to job creation and urban development [11] Group 2: Cultural Insights - Nashville is recognized as a cultural center, particularly for country music, and has become a popular destination for events like bachelor parties [11] - The local population exhibits a strong sense of community and cultural identity, with a significant presence of Christian faith reflected in the number of churches [13][15] Group 3: Investment Perspectives - U.S. LPs (Limited Partners) express confidence in the long-term attractiveness of the U.S. economy, viewing current market conditions as a reset rather than a crisis [41] - There is a notable trend of capital allocation towards quality names in response to tariff impacts, with expectations of increased domestic production from companies like Ford and GM [38] - The investment landscape is characterized by a focus on tax optimization strategies, with many funds prioritizing long-term holdings to minimize tax liabilities [43]

当华尔街投资机构们从自2022年以来最惨烈的下跌中缓过神来，在随后不久迎来由全球AI投资热潮全面推动的新一轮牛市，然而自今年以来，在 DeepSeek引领的"极低成本AI训练/推理"新范式席卷全球带动资金转向中国市场以及特朗普政府掀起"关税风暴"等因素共同推动下，美股牛市曲线愈发向熊 市轨迹靠拢。 与此同时，同样自2025年以来，跨越大洋与拉丁美洲的许多非美国的世界市场却斩获令投资者们艳羡的涨幅，长期以来在全球股市中一骑绝尘的美国股市 大幅跑输欧洲、亚太以及拉美市场中的多国基准股指。 统计数据显示，德国、波兰、西班牙、巴西等国的基准股指今年迄今已普遍上涨多达20%，可谓大幅跑赢今年以来分别下跌约3%和6%的标普500指数与 纳斯达克100指数。 DataTrek Research联合创始人尼古拉斯·科拉斯在一份客户报告中写道："经过超过10年的'美国例外论'交易模式，全球投资者很快重新认识到地理多元化 的配置价值。" 经济学家与分析师们普遍认为，关税叙事不断变化，令预测市场强弱表现更具挑战。富国银行的投研主管达雷尔·克朗克表示："这是一个非同寻常的范式 转变时刻——地缘政治、贸易、全球安全协定与去全球化加速同 ...