Core Insights - The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) reported that global trade is expected to grow by $300 billion in the first half of the year, but faces increasing resistance in the second half due to uncertainties in U.S. trade policies and global geopolitical tensions [1] Trade Growth Analysis - Global trade grew approximately 1.5% in the first quarter, with an expected growth of 2% in the second quarter [1] - Price increases are the main driver of the growth in global trade value, while trade volume only increased by 1% [1] - Service trade remains the primary driver of global trade growth, with a 9% increase over the past four quarters [1] Trade Imbalance Concerns - The report indicates a worsening global trade imbalance, with the U.S. trade deficit continuing to expand over the past four quarters [1] - The recent U.S. tariff measures have heightened the risk of trade fragmentation, and potential further unilateral actions by the U.S. could escalate trade tensions and disrupt global supply chain stability [1]

与此同时，德国新政府大规模增加国防和基础设施支出的计划带来了一些乐观的预期。年初时GDP的增 长幅度超出预期，但关于这种增长势头是否会减弱或是否会演变成可持续的复苏，各方观点不一。一季 度经济增长率为 0.4%，这在一定程度上是因为企业和出口商提前应对了美国的关税措施，不过私人消 费和投资也大幅增长。 周一公布的数据显示，5月份工业生产意外出现增长，表明企业在美国可能大幅提高关税之前加紧生产 以抢占出口先机，这为经济能够摆脱多年停滞状态的预期提供了有力支撑。德国5月季调后工业产出环 比增长1.2%，好于经济学家预期的环比下降0.2%，前值为环比下降1.4%。其中，汽车、制药和能源领 域的产出均有所上升。 智通财经APP获悉，由于美国总统特朗普发出的关税威胁，德国对美国的出口量在 5 月份大幅下降，其 出口额创下了三年多以来的新低。德国统计部门周二表示，5月总出口额环比下降1.4%，市场预期为下 降0.5%，而 4 月份修正为下降1.6%。5月进口额环比下降3.8%，市场预期为下降0.9%，其中来自美国的 进口更是下降了超过 10%。5月贸易顺差从4月修正后的 157 亿欧元增加到了 184 亿欧元(约合 21 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight LME copper weakened with a 0.69% decline to $9,784 per ton, and SHFE copper主力 fell 0.15% to 79,390 yuan per ton. There are concerns about a resurgence of trade tensions, and inventories at LME, Comex, and in the domestic market have increased. Short - term copper prices may be weak but the downside may be limited. Low inventories at home and abroad, along with domestic import losses and the discount pattern, are favorable for the bulls [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina trended strongly, while Shanghai aluminum trended weakly. There are both ore disturbances and new production pressures in alumina. With news of the exit of backward production capacity, the short - term policy may guide the market to fluctuate strongly. There is a marginal game between weakening electrolytic aluminum demand and low - delivery products. There is a risk of a short squeeze in the near - term, so it is not advisable to be overly bearish [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight LME nickel fell 0.85%, and Shanghai nickel fell 0.39%. In the stainless - steel industry chain, although there is production reduction, the overall inventory remains high. In the new - energy industry chain, the demand for nickel sulfate in July increased slightly month - on - month. In the short term, it will continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to overseas policy disturbances [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: LME copper prices declined overnight, and SHFE copper also fell. Concerns about trade tensions and increased inventories have put pressure on copper prices. However, low inventories and import losses support the bulls [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina showed a strong trend, while Shanghai aluminum was weak. There are complex factors in the alumina market, and the short - term policy may drive the market. There is a risk of a short squeeze in the near - term [1][2]. - **Nickel**: LME and Shanghai nickel prices fell. In the stainless - steel and new - energy industries, the situation is mixed. In the short term, it will fluctuate, and overseas policies need attention [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On July 7, 2025, compared with July 4, 2025, the price of flat - water copper decreased by 640 yuan per ton, and the inventory at LME and Comex increased [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead increased by 50 yuan per ton, and the inventory at the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased [3]. - **Aluminum**: The prices in Wuxi and Nanhai decreased, and the inventory at LME and the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 1,500 yuan per ton, and the inventory at the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased [4]. - **Zinc**: The主力 settlement price decreased by 0.7%, and the inventory at the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased while the LME inventory decreased [5]. - **Tin**: The主力 settlement price decreased by 1.2%, and the inventory at the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased while the LME inventory decreased [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the spot premium trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][9][10]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the near - far month spreads of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [11][14][16]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the LME inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [18][20][22]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the SHFE inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [25][27][29]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the social inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless - steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [31][33][35]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts present the trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [38][40][42]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals Team Introduction - **Zhan Dapeng**: A master of science, currently the director of non - ferrous metals research at Everbright Futures Research Institute. He has over a decade of experience in commodity research and has won many industry awards [45]. - **Wang Heng**: A master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia. He is a non - ferrous metals researcher at Everbright Futures, mainly focusing on aluminum and silicon [45]. - **Zhu Xi**: A master of science from the University of Warwick, UK. She is a non - ferrous metals researcher at Everbright Futures, mainly focusing on lithium and nickel [46].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the escalating trade tensions due to the Trump administration's tariff policies, which are causing significant market volatility and impacting global financial markets [1][3]. - The U.S. plans to impose a 25% tariff on all products imported from Japan and South Korea starting August 1, 2025, as part of a broader strategy to address trade imbalances [3]. - Additional tariffs will be applied to various countries, including 25% on Kazakhstan and Malaysia, 30% on South Africa, and 40% on Laos and Myanmar, indicating a comprehensive approach to trade policy [3]. Group 2 - Central banks are increasingly adding gold to their reserves, with China's central bank reporting a rise in gold reserves to 73.9 million ounces, marking the eighth consecutive month of increases [4]. - Following the announcement of tariffs, international gold prices surged over 2%, reaching $3,360 per ounce, reflecting heightened demand for gold as a safe-haven asset amid trade tensions [4]. - The performance of the gold market contrasts sharply with the decline in global stock markets, where major U.S. indices fell significantly due to concerns over tariff policies [4].

Group 1 - Current market sentiment for gold is cautious due to the prospect of sustained high interest rates from the Federal Reserve, which diminishes gold's appeal, while trade tensions and geopolitical risks provide some support for safe-haven assets [1] - The recent non-farm payroll data has weakened expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July, leading to an increase in U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index, which puts pressure on non-yielding assets like gold [1] - Market participants are closely monitoring the June FOMC meeting minutes, which will clarify members' assessments of the current economic outlook and future policy direction, potentially influencing interest rate trends [1] Group 2 - The daily structure of gold prices indicates a potential fourth wave adjustment after a peak at 3500, with expectations of further price movements following this adjustment [2] - On the 4-hour chart, a combined WXY three-wave adjustment is observed, with specific price levels identified for potential movements within the Y wave [4] - Recent price action shows gold rebounding to around 3342 before retreating, with a focus on support levels around 3296, which aligns with Fibonacci retracement levels [6] Group 3 - Trading strategies suggest buying near 3317/18 with a stop loss at 3311 and a target of 3325-3327, while also recommending short positions in the 3325-28 range with a stop loss at 3331 [7] - The domestic gold products, such as accumulation gold and futures, are closely correlated with international gold prices, with short-term trading opportunities identified amid recent price declines [8] - Accumulation gold opened lower following international gold trends, with specific support levels highlighted for potential buying opportunities [8]

美国、德国就关税问题达成协议的最后期限为7月9日，但企业已经在为更复杂的双边关系及由此带来的 成本做准备。一些企业计划将生产转移至大西洋彼岸，而像梅赛德斯-奔驰集团这样的汽车制造商则已 与美国官员进行非正式会谈，这在一定程度上削弱了由欧盟方面主导的官方谈判。 德国经济部在一份声明中表示："未来的进展仍存在高度不确定性。制造业在夏季是否能继续保持增长 势头，将在很大程度上取决于贸易和地缘政治环境的演变。"进一步凸显德国经济所面临的不稳定形势 的是，上周五公布的一项数据显示，5月工厂订单环比下降1.4%，远超预期，也是四个月来首次下降。 Joachim Nagel周一表示："德国经济在短期内面临重大逆风。"不过他也补充道："展望未来，仍有理由 保持谨慎的乐观态度。"Joachim Nagel表示，考虑到今年年初超预期的0.4%经济增长，"全年实现小幅增 长是可能的"，"但即便如此，这也意味着德国将连续三年陷入微弱增长的状态"。 智通财经APP获悉，德国5月工业产出意外增长，表明企业在美国可能大幅提高关税之前加紧生产以抢 占出口先机。周一公布的数据显示，德国5月季调后工业产出环比增长1.2%，好于经济学家预期的环比 ...

Core Viewpoint - The oil market is expected to face downward price risks in the next 6-12 months due to an anticipated increase in supply and potential oversupply conditions [1] Group 1: Supply Dynamics - OPEC+ is expected to exacerbate supply surplus later this year, putting pressure on global oil prices [1] - The increase in oil production is believed to find buyers in the short term, as indicated by Saudi Arabia's decision to raise oil prices [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - Despite the recent acceleration in production by OPEC, the global oil market is nearing a state of oversupply as winter approaches [1] - UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo noted that while the oil market is currently tight, rising risks such as ongoing trade tensions could lead to a less tight market in the future, impacting prices negatively [1]

Group 1 - The Trump administration is preparing to send unilateral tariff rate notifications to trade partners, marking a new phase of its trade policy [1] - The deadline for negotiations is set for July 9, and the U.S. aims to exert direct pressure on countries that have not reached agreements [1][2] - EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stated that the EU is ready to reach a principle agreement with the U.S. before the July 9 deadline, but will take countermeasures if negotiations fail [1] Group 2 - President Trump indicated that the government may start sending letters to trade partners as early as Friday, potentially sending ten letters daily to inform them of the costs of doing business with the U.S. [1] - The U.S. has reached agreements with the UK and Vietnam, with Vietnam facing a 20% tariff on exports to the U.S. and a 40% tariff on goods considered transshipments [3] - Major trade partners like Japan, South Korea, and the EU are still working to finalize agreements, with Trump expressing optimism about an agreement with India but being critical of Japan's cooperation [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Euro/USD pair has recently retreated from a high of 1.1800, with the market focusing on upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The U.S. dollar gained momentum amid rising yields, contributing to the Euro's decline after a nine-day increase [2] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has renewed demand for risk assets, putting pressure on the dollar and supporting the Euro and other risk-related currencies [4] - Trade tensions remain a focal point as the deadline for U.S. tariff suspensions approaches, with ongoing negotiations between the EU and the UK regarding Brexit [5] Group 2: Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% in June but raised inflation and unemployment forecasts due to tariff-related cost pressures [6] - The European Central Bank (ECB) recently lowered the deposit facility rate to 2.00%, with further easing contingent on a significant decline in external demand [6] Group 3: Market Positioning - As of June 24, speculative net long positions in the Euro rose to over 111.1K contracts, the highest level since January 2024, while commercial traders' net short positions increased to 164.3K contracts, the peak since December 2023 [7] Group 4: Technical Analysis - Initial resistance is at the 2025 high of 1.1829, with potential targets at the September 2018 high of 1.1815 and the June 2018 high of 1.1852 [8] - Initial support is at the 55-day simple moving average of 1.1410, followed by the weekly low of 1.1210 and the May low of 1.1064 [8] - Momentum indicators remain positive, with the RSI above 74 indicating overbought conditions but also potential for further gains [8] Group 5: Long-term Outlook - In the absence of new geopolitical or macroeconomic shocks, the Euro's upward trend is expected to resume, supported by reduced risk aversion and expectations of Fed easing [9]

Core Viewpoint - The Euro/USD exchange rate has shown significant movement, with the Euro reaching a new high of 1.1830 before a slight decline, influenced by various economic and geopolitical factors [2][3]. Economic Indicators - The European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde emphasized the need for vigilance regarding inflation, as the Euro ended an eight-day rally [3]. - The U.S. dollar rebounded from previous lows following the Senate's approval of President Trump's comprehensive tax reform, which affected the Euro's upward momentum [3]. Geopolitical Factors - Recent geopolitical tensions have eased, contributing to a stronger interest in risk assets, thereby supporting the Euro and other risk-related currencies [5]. - Investors remain cautious about potential changes in Washington's trade stance, especially with the U.S. tariff suspension deadline approaching on July 9 [6]. Central Bank Policies - The divergence in policies between the ECB and the Federal Reserve continues, with the Fed maintaining interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% while adjusting inflation and unemployment forecasts due to tariff-related cost pressures [7][8]. - The ECB recently lowered its deposit rate to 2.00%, with Lagarde indicating that further easing would depend on a significant deterioration in external demand [8]. Market Sentiment - Speculators have increased their net long positions in the Euro, reaching the highest level since January 2024, while commercial participants have raised their net short positions [9]. - The total open interest in Euro contracts has also risen to approximately 762.6K, marking a two-week high [9]. Technical Analysis - Key resistance levels are identified at the 2025 high of 1.1829, with potential targets at the September 2018 high of 1.1815 and the June 2018 high of 1.1852 [10]. - Initial support is noted at the 55-day simple moving average of 1.1403, followed by lower support levels [10]. Outlook - The Euro's upward trend is expected to continue unless geopolitical or macroeconomic shocks occur, driven by reduced risk aversion and growing confidence in potential Fed policy easing [12].