金十数据5月15日讯，美联储主席鲍威尔在周四讲话中没有谈及当前的货币政策或经济前景，尽管他确 实表示，他预计4月份个人消费支出价格通胀将降至2.2%——这是一个温和的数据，但仍可能没有反映 出即将到来的关税驱动的价格上涨。尽管如此，这仍然反映了在没有对经济造成重大损害的情况下，反 通胀的"历史上不寻常的结果"，在美联储当前的策略下，确实发生了"软着陆"。 鲍威尔未谈及政策前景，预计4月PCE降至2.2% ...

Group 1: Fund Manager Sentiment - Fund managers' sentiment has become more optimistic, with cash levels decreasing from 4.8% to 4.5% in May, indicating increased confidence [1] - Approximately 17% of investors have reduced their exposure to the US dollar, the highest level since May 2006, while 40% of investors wish to increase protection against dollar depreciation [1] - The proportion of investors believing the US dollar is overvalued has decreased by 12 percentage points to 57%, marking the largest monthly decline since September 2023 [1] Group 2: Currency Valuation Perspectives - About 13% of investors now believe the British pound is overvalued, the highest level in four months, up from 8% in April [1] - The percentage of investors considering the euro undervalued has risen significantly, with 22% now holding this view, an increase of 17 percentage points from the previous month, the largest monthly increase since August 2020 [1] - The perception of gold being overvalued has reached its highest level since May 2008, with 45% of investors holding this view, up from 34% in April [1] Group 3: Economic Growth Outlook - Investor pessimism regarding global economic growth has eased, with a net 59% expecting a slowdown, down from 82% in April [2] - Only 1% of investors anticipate a recession, a significant drop from 42% in April, with a consensus forming around a "soft landing" scenario [2] - 61% of investors now expect a soft landing, an increase from 37% in April, while expectations for a hard landing have decreased from 49% to 26% [2] Group 4: Systemic Risk Factors - 43% of investors identify trade wars as the most likely trigger for a systemic credit crisis, followed by the US shadow banking system at 25% [2] - The survey was conducted prior to the announcement of tariff reductions, which may have influenced investor sentiment positively [2] Group 5: US Stock Market Dynamics - Fund managers have reduced their holdings in US stocks by 38%, the highest level in two years, indicating a cautious approach [3] - The ongoing stock market rally may force investors to chase prices, as many missed opportunities during the previous month's rebound [2][3] - The "no landing" scenario is seen as favorable for US stocks, emerging markets, small-cap stocks, and energy, but could negatively impact gold [3]

美银调查显示，投资者对全球经济增长的悲观情绪有所缓解 金十数据5月13日讯，美国银行对全球基金经理的月度调查显示，投资者对5月份全球经济增长的悲观情 绪有所缓解。净59%的投资者预计全球经济增长将放缓，低于4月份的82%。净1%的人认为可能出现衰 退，较4月份的42%大幅下降。投资者目前的共识是软着陆，即通胀下降，而经济不会明显放缓或陷入 衰退。本月，61%的投资者预计会出现这种结果，高于4月份的37%。，对硬着陆的预期已从4月份的 49%降至26%。 ...

在对美国经济前景的展望上，鲍威尔指出，通胀略高于2%的目标，但"核心通胀状况良好"，就业市场 也接近充分就业，因此美联储目前"无需仓促行动"，政策工具也"准备充足"。不过他也警告，如果特朗 普政府宣布的大规模加征关税最终落地，可能会推高通胀、拖累经济增长，并导致失业上升。 在被问及经济当前面临的风险时，鲍威尔坦言，目前通胀与失业的上行风险"双双上升"，美联储需要在 两者之间进行权衡。他强调，美联储将密切关注两项关键变量(通胀与就业)，并在必要时作出政策调 整，"如果我们看到就业市场显著恶化，当然会采取支持行动。" 近期数据显示，美国4月失业率为4.2%，仍处于主流估算的"最大就业"范围之内。但与去年相比，美联 储已显现出更高的容忍度，允许就业市场一定程度上的放缓，以对抗持续偏高的通胀。 面对市场对降息的高度关注，鲍威尔表示，美联储当前采取"观望"策略，并不会因预期经济放缓而预先 调整利率。他指出，由于贸易政策、关税等变量仍存在极大不确定性，美联储"无法提前判断数据如何 演变"，因此将"静待更清晰的数据指引再决定政策走向"。 智通财经APP获悉，美联储主席鲍威尔周三在新闻发布会上表示，美联储在货币政策制定上将继 ...

Market Performance - All three major U.S. indices closed up over 1%, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones recording nine consecutive days of gains, driven by a "moderate" cooling in the U.S. labor market and favorable tariff news [1] - The Dow Jones increased by 564.47 points (1.39%) to 41,317.43, with a weekly gain of 3.00%; the Nasdaq rose by 266.99 points (1.51%) to 17,977.73, with a weekly gain of 3.42%; the S&P 500 gained 82.53 points (1.47%) to 5,686.67, with a weekly gain of 2.92% [1] European Market Performance - The German DAX30 index rose by 2.62% to 23,086.65; the UK FTSE 100 increased by 1.17% to 8,596.35; the French CAC40 index gained 2.33% to 7,770.48; the Euro Stoxx 50 index rose by 2.42% to 5,285.19; the Spanish IBEX35 increased by 1.20% to 13,446.70; and the Italian FTSE MIB index rose by 1.92% to 38,327.94 [2] Cryptocurrency and Commodities - Bitcoin rose approximately 0.5% to near $97,000, reflecting increased risk appetite [3] - Spot gold increased by 0.11% to $3,240.61 per ounce, but fell 2.35% for the week; COMEX gold futures rose by 0.77% to $3,247.00 per ounce, with a weekly decline of 1.58% [3] - WTI crude oil futures fell by 1.6% to $58.29 per barrel, with a weekly decline of over 7.50%; Brent crude oil futures dropped by 1.4% to $61.29 per barrel, with a weekly decline of over 6.85% [3] Macro Economic News - The U.S. added 177,000 jobs in April, indicating a "soft landing" path, with the unemployment rate stable at 4.2%, aligning with market expectations [4] - OPEC+ is discussing an increase in oil production by approximately 400,000 barrels in June, which has led to a drop in oil prices [4] Government Proposals - The U.S. government proposed a $163 billion reduction in the federal budget for 2026, with a 13% increase in defense spending and a nearly 65% increase in homeland security spending, while non-defense discretionary spending would be cut by 23% [5] Company-Specific News - Nvidia is planning to launch a "China-specific" AI chip version, modifying its AI chip design to comply with U.S. export restrictions while continuing to supply Chinese companies [6] - Nike, Adidas, and Under Armour are seeking tariff exemptions due to cost concerns, warning that increased tariffs could significantly raise consumer prices and threaten business viability [6] - Apple is collaborating with startup Anthropic to develop an AI-driven programming software platform, which will enhance its existing Xcode software [7]

Core Viewpoint - Jerome Powell emphasizes the necessity of central bank independence to maintain stable inflation and high employment, rejecting political influence [1][2][3] Group 1: Central Bank Independence - Powell asserts that the Federal Reserve must operate without political pressure, ensuring that policy decisions are made based on economic conditions rather than external factors [2][3] - The recent comments from President Trump criticizing Powell have raised concerns among investors about the potential threat to the Fed's independence [1][4] Group 2: Economic Strategy and Challenges - The Federal Reserve is adopting a strategy of maintaining stable interest rates while being prepared to lower them if necessary to prevent labor market collapse, reflecting a cautious approach to economic management [3][4] - Powell's leadership is being tested as the Fed faces challenges from rising inflation and the impact of Trump's tariffs, which have complicated the economic outlook [4][5] Group 3: Inflation Concerns - Recent inflation readings have exceeded expectations, with core inflation at 2.8% in February, prompting concerns about the Fed's ability to maintain price stability [4] - Economic forecasts suggest that the trade war could increase the likelihood of a recession, further complicating the Fed's decision-making process [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - Despite recent volatility in financial markets, traders have not fully priced in recession risks, indicating a potential disconnect between market performance and economic realities [1] Market Performance - The S&P 500 index has declined by 12.5% from its historical high on February 19, with a maximum drop of 18.9% since the announcement of tariffs [2] - Current market declines are not comparable to those seen during past recessions, where declines were at least 19.9% [2] - Credit spreads are not reflecting the market pressures typically associated with recessions, with current high-yield bond spreads at 397 basis points, significantly lower than levels seen during past recessions [2] Oil Prices - Brent crude oil prices have only decreased by 10% since the tariff announcement, which is much less than the two-thirds drop observed during the COVID-19 pandemic and the financial crisis [3] - The moderate decline in oil prices suggests that investors do not anticipate a significant slowdown in the global economy [3] Yield Curve - The yield curve, particularly the spread between 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds, is showing signs of steepening, which is often a precursor to recession [3] - The steepening of the yield curve has been influenced by rising long-term yields, indicating investor concerns about the safety of long-term government bonds [3] Economic Indicators - Upcoming hard data, such as non-farm payroll reports, will be crucial in assessing whether the economy is heading into a recession, as recent survey data has been less reliable [4]

Group 1 - The article highlights that global major indices experienced a general adjustment in March, with the US stock market leading the decline, particularly the Nasdaq Composite Index, which fell over 8% [5][6] - A/H shares showed strong performance in the first half of the month but retreated in the latter half, indicating resilience compared to other global markets [5][6] - The article notes a significant depreciation of the US dollar and a notable appreciation of the euro, driven by disappointing US economic data, which heightened recession concerns [5][6] Group 2 - China's economic fundamentals showed signs of recovery in January and February, but the foundation remains weak, with industrial profits declining by 0.3% year-on-year [8][9] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) turned negative in February, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) continued to show negative growth for 29 consecutive months, reflecting weak domestic demand [8][9] - The uncertainty surrounding the sustainability of real estate sales and the impact of overseas tariffs on exports poses risks to China's economic outlook [8][9] Group 3 - The market is transitioning from a phase of "speculative expectations" to a "performance verification" window, particularly significant in April when A-share earnings reports are released [10] - The first quarter earnings reports are expected to show strong performance in certain sectors, including non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and engineering machinery, driven by structural price increases and domestic and foreign demand [12][14] - The technology sector is anticipated to report high growth, particularly in areas such as IoT, audio, and wearable devices, supported by recovery trends [14] Group 4 - The article discusses the narrowing of style gaps in the market, indicating a potential return to original styles after periods of extreme divergence, with historical examples provided [16][17] - The TMT sector's trading volume has returned to a safe zone, suggesting that market sentiment has stabilized [19] - The relationship between US and Chinese assets is highlighted, with the narrative of "East rising, West falling" becoming more pronounced, particularly in the tech sector [21][22]

Global Macro - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at the March FOMC meeting, aligning with market expectations, indicating a challenging environment for rate cuts amid stagflation concerns [2][3] - The economic forecast has been downgraded, with 2025 GDP growth revised from 2.1% to 1.7%, and the unemployment rate adjusted from 4.3% to 4.4%, reflecting a stagflation narrative [6][8] - The Fed's decision to slow down balance sheet reduction from $25 billion to $5 billion per month is seen as a proactive measure to mitigate risks amid economic uncertainties [17][20] Interest Rate Outlook - The median interest rate forecast suggests two rate cuts, but the number of committee members supporting this has decreased from 15 to 11, indicating a higher threshold for future cuts [6][8] - The current unemployment rate of 4.1% is expected to rise to 4.4% by the end of 2025, which historically correlates with recessionary conditions [8][10] - The Fed faces pressure from the White House regarding high interest rates, which conflict with fiscal goals such as reducing the deficit and encouraging manufacturing return [22][27] Economic Projections - The economic projections indicate a shift towards a potential shallow recession, with the likelihood of rate cuts increasing as economic conditions evolve [22][27] - The Fed's economic outlook reflects a balance of risks, with inflation expectations rising among committee members, complicating the path for rate cuts [5][6] - The report highlights the uncertainty surrounding Trump's policies, which may impact economic stability and the Fed's decision-making process [3][22]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.50% and further slowed the pace of quantitative tightening (QT) from $25 billion per month to $5 billion per month, nearing a halt[3] - Despite rising concerns about stagflation, the Fed officials still guide for two rate cuts within the year, indicating a dovish stance[1] - The Fed's economic projections lowered GDP growth from 2.1% to 1.7% and raised PCE inflation expectations from 2.5% to 2.7%[1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The unemployment rate forecast was adjusted from 4.3% to 4.4%, reflecting concerns about economic slowdown due to tariff impacts[1] - The Fed anticipates that Trump's tariffs and other economic reforms could reduce economic growth by 0.4 percentage points and increase nominal inflation by 0.3 percentage points[1] - Current economic data shows signs of marginal weakening, but the distance to a recession remains significant[4] Group 3: Market Reactions - The 10-year Treasury yield fell by 4.8 basis points to 4.237%, while the 2-year yield dropped by 7.17 basis points to 3.966%[4] - The market's key focus remains on Trump's policies, with expectations of inflation and economic downturn continuing to influence market sentiment[4] - CME data indicates that traders expect two rate cuts in 2025, aligning with the Fed's projections[4]