日本央行审议委员高田创：超长期日本国债的风险溢价上升往往会导致市场功能恶化，波动性会蔓延到 整个收益率曲线。 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 固收资产配置丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 从波动率把握转债的机会区间 ——可转债周报 20250628 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 当周（2025 年 6 月 23 日–2025 年 6 月 28 日），可转债市场回暖，指数整体走强，市场风格 转向高弹性博弈。估值端，低平价区间个券有所分化，中高平价区间个券估值普遍拉升，市场 风险偏好温和回升，隐含波动率小幅抬升，交易情绪有所改善。当前万得全 A 风险溢价处于高 分位，权益市场相对债市或具备一定性价比。我们认为，转债市场波动率相关指标均有所回升， 反映市场情绪温和回暖。整体来看，当前转债市场风格自防御向进攻切换，建议兼顾弹性与安 全边际，关注具备事件驱动与业绩兑现预期的结构性机会。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 熊锋 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490524120004 SFC：BVN394 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 从波动率把握转债的机会区间 2] ——可转债周报 202506 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the slow progress of RMB internationalization compared to China's growing global economic status, exploring the feasibility and implications of accelerating this process from the perspective of "liquidity premium" [1]. Group 1: Current State of RMB Internationalization - The current level of RMB internationalization is not commensurate with China's economic scale, with RMB's share in foreign exchange trading, international payments, trade financing, and reserve currency significantly lower than its GDP share [4][5]. - RMB's share in global payments is estimated to be around 8%, with a significant portion of international payments occurring in Hong Kong [4][11]. - Historical data shows that accelerating RMB internationalization does not necessarily lead to depreciation; for instance, after the 2005 exchange rate reform, the RMB appreciated against the USD for nine consecutive years [4][27]. Group 2: Factors Influencing RMB Internationalization - The RMB market exchange rate is undervalued compared to its purchasing power parity (PPP) rate, indicating a high liquidity premium due to insufficient global liquidity [4][28]. - The current excessive liquidity of the USD, which constitutes 48.46% of global payment currency and 57.8% of reserve currency, creates a situation where the USD is overvalued [47][48]. - The external environment, including the declining USD index and rising US debt pressure, presents a favorable opportunity for RMB internationalization [40][41]. Group 3: Recommendations for Accelerating RMB Internationalization - Suggestions include further opening the capital account, providing exchange convenience for enterprises and residents, and studying the legislation of RMB stablecoins to enhance RMB's international payment and settlement roles [56][62]. - The article emphasizes the need for the central bank to gradually reduce its holdings of USD assets and increase gold reserves, which would enhance RMB's credibility [63][67]. Group 4: Economic Implications of RMB Internationalization - Accelerating RMB internationalization is expected to facilitate China's economic transformation, allowing for a potential reduction in GDP growth targets as the RMB appreciates [68][69]. - The internationalization of the RMB can help Chinese enterprises grow stronger by attracting foreign investment into the A-share market and supporting overseas mergers and acquisitions [10][73].

Core Viewpoint - The recent ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran has influenced gold prices, leading to a bearish trend in the market, with potential further declines expected in the near term [1]. Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Following the ceasefire announcement, gold prices peaked at 3393 but subsequently fell to 3295, indicating a bearish trend [1]. - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has shown negative signals, suggesting increased selling pressure and the likelihood of continued price declines [1]. - Key support levels for gold are identified at 3260 and 3253, with a primary bearish outlook prevailing [1]. Group 2: Trading Strategies - A short-term buying opportunity is suggested if gold prices drop to around 3255, with a stop loss at 3245 and a target of 3290-3300 [2]. - A selling strategy is recommended for gold if it rebounds to the 3310-15 range, with a stop loss at 3320 and a target of 3290-3280, extending to 3250 if the price breaks down [2]. Group 3: Silver Market Analysis - Silver prices have shown slight declines after previous gains, trading around 36.50 USD per ounce, with concerns about the Federal Reserve's independence potentially limiting further declines [4]. - The silver market remains bullish as long as prices do not fall below the critical support level of 35.2, with a short-term target of 37 USD [4].

Core Viewpoint - Analysts from TS Lombard suggest that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is unlikely to fall below 4% due to stable term premiums and limited room for further yield declines if risk premiums do not compress significantly [1] Group 1: Yield Analysis - The additional yield required by investors for holding longer-term U.S. Treasuries, known as term premium, has not changed significantly recently [1] - The stability in term premiums indicates that there is limited space for further declines in yields [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve is not expected to lower interest rates below 3% in the next easing cycle, which will further support high yields [1]

Core Viewpoint - Asian oil and gas producers may face significant price volatility in the second half of the year due to OPEC+ production increases, U.S. shale oil exports, and tariff disputes among economies, which threaten long-term oil demand and pricing. However, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could expand the risk premium for crude oil in the short term, potentially pushing prices up to $90 per barrel, while long-term demand decline may lead to a drop to $40 per barrel [2]. Group 1: Market Performance - From January 1 to June 13, the Asian oil and gas index underperformed the broader market due to a slowdown in global trade and industrial activity caused by U.S. tariffs, leading to a bleak oil demand outlook. However, the performance gap narrowed in June as investor concerns about the Israel-Iran conflict and potential supply disruptions increased [5][6]. - During the same period, the MSCI AC Asia Pacific Energy Index rose by 7.48%, while the MSCI Asia Pacific Index increased by 9.1%, indicating that the energy sector lagged behind the broader market [6]. Group 2: Valuation Metrics - The price-to-book ratio for the Asian oil and gas sector stands at 1.1 times, aligning with the 10-year average, suggesting that investors have not fully accounted for the potential upside in oil prices. The uncertainty from U.S. tariffs has led traders to reduce their exposure to oil, reflected in the declining valuations from January to April [9]. - In June, valuations showed a slight recovery, indicating that traders have reduced earlier bets on falling oil prices following the Israel-Iran conflict. A $1 per barrel change in WTI crude oil price could lead to a $0.8 change in earnings per share for Asian oil companies [9].

截至当天收盘，纽约商品交易所8月交货的轻质原油期货价格下跌4.14美元，收于每桶64.37美元，跌幅 为6.04%；8月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格下跌4.34美元，收于每桶67.14美元，跌幅为6.07%。 按照美国方面宣布的时间表，伊朗与以色列的停火于北京时间24日正午后正式生效。尽管随后以伊双方 均违反停火协议，但停火协议继续得到执行。以色列总理办公室24日说，以总理内塔尼亚胡同特朗普通 话，以方已同意不对伊朗发动进一步打击。 Kpler公司首席石油分析师马特·史密斯（Matt Smith）说，特朗普似乎始终不愿将伊朗石油从市场中剔 除，因为那将推高油价。 在线交易和投资机构IG集团市场分析师托尼·西卡莫（Tony Sycamore）说，由于伊朗与以色列已达成停 火协议，上周原油价格中蕴含的风险溢价几乎完全消散。 新华财经纽约6月24日电（刘亚南张怡然）受以色列与伊朗达成停火协议和市场对伊朗石油出口前景的 预期显著改变影响，国际油价24日低开低走，尾盘连续第二个交易日大幅收跌。 刘易斯预计，通胀和经济增长可能会在后市推动油价小幅上涨，但目前将会首先寻求企稳，然后才会走 高。 （文章来源：新华财经） 外汇 ...

【环球时报特约记者 汪品植 环球时报记者 杨舒宇】随着以伊冲突的持续和美国下场对伊朗核设施实施打击，中东紧张局势不断升级，全球能源 市场和航运供应链前景均被蒙上厚重的阴云。 " 世界能源运输的动脉 " 周一早盘，国际基准布伦特原油价格较前一周收盘价上涨逾5%，至每桶81美元以上。后回吐涨幅，跌至每桶80美元以下。自本轮以伊冲突爆发以 来，国际油价已在不到两周时间内上蹿约10%。 战争的爆发将波斯湾出口主要产品的风险溢价大幅提高。在成品油领域，以伊冲突对柴油价格的影响凸显，尤其是在欧洲。欧洲ICE低硫柴油基 准价格自6月12日以来已上涨近15%，延续近几个月柴油价格的上涨势头，这得益于全球需求强劲以及欧洲和美国库存较低。柴油价格对欧洲的影 响尤为突出。 上周中，欧洲柴油期货基准价格较原油的溢价突破每桶20美元。根据国际能源署的数据，去年，柴油约占欧洲整体油品需求的 44%。柴油在欧洲用于私人和商业运输以及工业用途，去年欧洲精炼燃料的进口量超过120万桶/日。此前，欧洲叫停了从俄罗斯的柴油进口，而 主要转向中东和亚洲进口。 中东是全球柴油主要出口地区，去年中东地区的柴油出口量达到每天83.1万桶，约占全球经海路进 ...

Core Viewpoint - Despite the ongoing conflict and missile attacks, the Israeli market is thriving, with the TA-125 index reaching new historical highs and showing resilience compared to global markets [1][4][5] Group 1: Market Performance - The TA-125 index has seen a continuous rise, with an increase of approximately 8% since the outbreak of conflict on October 7, 2023, while the S&P 500 has slightly declined [7] - The total return of the TA-125 index from the onset of the Gaza conflict to June 12, 2023, was about 46%, outperforming the S&P 500's 40% increase during the same period [5] - Local investors in Israel are showing confidence, with the market remaining stable even after significant military actions, indicating a pattern of quick rebounds following initial declines [5][6] Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Israeli investors have developed a familiarity with conflict, often viewing wartime conditions as buying opportunities rather than reasons to sell [5][6] - The recent market uptrend suggests that investors are not only buying on dips but are also willing to chase higher prices, indicating strong bullish sentiment [6] - Analysts believe that local investors are betting on the weakening of Iranian influence in the region due to Israeli military actions, which has contributed to the market's positive performance [7][8] Group 3: Economic Resilience - Despite the ongoing military mobilization and conflict, Israel's economy has shown remarkable resilience, with a low unemployment rate near 3% and continued economic growth [5][8] - The chief economist at IBI Investment Company noted that while the budget deficit has widened, the overall economic stability remains intact [5] - The changing security landscape around Israel has led to a decrease in perceived geopolitical risk, potentially paving the way for increased foreign investment once the situation stabilizes [8][10] Group 4: Long-term Considerations - There are concerns regarding the sustainability of the current military actions, with estimates suggesting that the conflict could be costly, potentially limiting Israel's ability to engage in prolonged warfare [9][10] - The former governor of the Bank of Israel highlighted that the economic impact of the conflict will largely depend on its duration, with short-term engagements being manageable but longer conflicts posing significant challenges [10] - Unresolved issues related to the Palestinian conflict and the potential for Iran to rebuild its nuclear program remain long-term risks for the Israeli market [10][11]

黄金、原油开盘拉涨 受上周末中东局势升级影响，现货黄金周一高开，最高至3398美元/盎司；WTI原油高开3.7%。布伦特原油期货开盘上涨5.7%，至81.4美元/桶。截至发 稿，黄金、原油价格均有所回落。 此外，中东地区天然气供应也会受到干扰，并与其他能化品种产生共振效应。据了解，以色列6月15日对伊朗南帕尔斯气田的空袭已导致该地区日产气量 下降，随着冲突进一步扩大，欧洲TTF天然气基准价格和亚洲LNG现货价格可能被进一步推高。"油气价格具有强相关性，天然气供应紧张不仅会强化原 油市场的看涨情绪，还将增加中东甲醇和尿素的生产成本，导致相关生产装置运行不稳。"苗扬称。 "美伊正面冲突已成现实，中东冲突呈现加速扩大化趋势。"广发期货分析师苗扬认为，美国从幕后支援转向直接打击伊朗战略核资产，标志冲突性质转变 为地区大国与世界强权间的军事对抗。 "美军直接介入伊朗核设施打击，符合此前机构推演。"海通期货能化负责人杨安表示，当前冲突暂限于核设施层面，但美国入局已为油价注入5～10 美元/ 桶的地缘溢价。"风险度提升是确定的，虽暂未失控，但市场情绪可能引发剧烈波动。" 在紫金天风期货分析师汤剑林看来，伊朗作为能源输出国， ...