证券研究报告 固收视角 生产端有所收敛 华泰研究 2025 年 12 月 22 日│中国内地 | 张继强 | | --- | 吴宇航* 研究员 SAC No. S0570518110002 SFC No. AMB145 zhangjiqiang@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 研究员 SAC No. S0570521090004 wuyuhang@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 吴靖*，PhD 研究员 SAC No. S0570523070006 wujing018437@htsc.com 李梓豪* 联系人 SAC No. S0570124060040 lizihao@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 高频数据核心观点 12 月第三周，地产方面，地产成交热度小幅修复，但新房与二手房整体偏弱，叠加高基数影响，同比读数弱于前期， 房价有待改善，土地成交指标低位运行。生产端来看，工业方面，货运量韧性回落，生产开工率多数偏弱，地炼开工 率修复，焦化、高炉、汽车边际偏弱，基数对读数有扰动。建筑业方面，水泥与黑色供需偏弱运行，库存小幅去化， 沥青开工率 ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Trends Impacting China's Economy in 2026 - The external environment is expected to stabilize from high volatility, with trade policy uncertainty likely past its peak and geopolitical relations moving towards orderly confrontation [1][11][12] - The growth momentum is anticipated to experience a historic shift, with the "three new economies" (new industries, new business formats, new models) expected to surpass the real estate economy in GDP contribution for the first time [1][23][24] - Inflation is projected to rise moderately from around -1% to near 0%, supported by consumption stimulus and low base effects [1][33][36] - The financial cycle is expected to continue its downward trend, with significant risk prevention tasks remaining [1][38][39] Group 2: Economic Fundamentals - The global economy is forecasted to enter a "persistent low growth" phase in 2026, with inflation risks still present despite a moderate decline [2][51][52] - Domestic nominal GDP is expected to grow around 5%, with real GDP growth also projected at approximately 5% [3][40] - Consumption is anticipated to lead the recovery, with retail sales expected to grow by about 4.5% [3][40] - Investment is expected to stabilize, with infrastructure investment projected to grow moderately due to policy support [3][40] - Exports are expected to grow between 3-5%, facing both opportunities and challenges [4][40] Group 3: Policy Outlook - Fiscal policy is expected to maintain a stable overall tone, with a focus on optimizing structure and reform measures [5][6] - Monetary policy may see slight reductions in interest rates and reserve requirements, with a focus on fiscal coordination [6][39] Group 4: Asset Allocation Outlook - The market is expected to be in a complex transition period, with a defensive strategy recommended [7][10] - The stock market is likely to shift from valuation-driven to profit-driven, with a focus on technology, high-quality overseas expansion, and sectors benefiting from anti-involution policies [7][10] - The bond market is expected to experience wide fluctuations, while commodity markets will continue to show structural differentiation [7][10]

格隆汇12月22日｜广发期货研究发文称， 展望2026年，我们看好供应端偏紧格局下的铜价底部重心继 续抬升，AI投资下的新兴终端需求预期以及宏观视角下的传统终端需求预期锚定铜价运行方向，美国 铜进口关税政策将在交易节奏上对铜价形成扰动。 电力板块作为铜下游需求第一大领域，中远期需求 前景稳健，且中国投资增速表现亮眼，托底铜下游终端消费。新兴领域中，新能源汽车、光伏及风电用 铜经历了几年的高速增长后，预计2026年增速或将放缓，AI投资浪潮有望成为铜远期需求的新增长 点，为下游需求提供边际增量。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Fund managers are generally optimistic about the market outlook for 2026, focusing more on corporate profitability as a key driver for stock price movements [2][3][4]. Group 1: Corporate Profitability - Corporate profitability is expected to become the core consideration for investment decisions, with a shift from liquidity-driven to profitability-driven market dynamics anticipated [3][4]. - The overall profitability growth in the non-financial sector is expected to improve, with high growth projected in TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) and manufacturing sectors, while cyclical and consumer sectors are expected to gradually recover [3][4]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Fund managers are optimistic about structural opportunities in the market, particularly in growth sectors such as PCB, optical communication, domestic computing, robotics, and autonomous driving, as well as innovative pharmaceutical companies [6][7]. - Consumer and cyclical sectors are also highlighted, focusing on price-elastic "anti-involution" products, monopolistic cyclical products with dividend protection, and non-bank financial sectors [6][7]. Group 3: AI Investment Landscape - The AI sector presents both opportunities and challenges, with strong demand leading to explosive growth in related companies, although some segments may face supply constraints [8][9]. - Investment in AI applications is expected to expand, particularly in consumer entertainment, operational optimization for businesses, and humanoid robots and smart driving technologies [8][9].

Group 1 - The market status indicates an increased correlation between the US and Chinese markets, with the 20-day rolling correlation of the CSI 300 and S&P 500 rising above the 90th percentile, reflecting a new normal of "overnight alignment and intraday reversal" [2][10][13] - The US core CPI has decreased to 2.6%, the lowest in three and a half years, while the unemployment rate has risen to 4.6%, primarily due to increased labor participation and temporary unemployment, indicating a stable economic environment without significant inflationary pressures [2][10][13] - China's economic fundamentals show a combination of corporate profit bottoming out and a decline in domestic demand, which opens a window for further policy support [2][10][13] Group 2 - The AI industry chain is experiencing a divergence, with broader AI-related assets (copper, lithium, aluminum, energy storage, and electrical equipment) performing better than core AI assets (computing chips, optical modules, PCB) [3][24][25] - Investors are becoming less tolerant of the contradiction between aggressive capital expenditures and the lack of revenue growth in companies within the AI industry chain, leading to a negative correlation between stock performance and capital expenditure as a percentage of revenue [3][24][25] - Commodity prices for copper, aluminum, tin, and lithium carbonate have been rising since late October, driven by demand from AI investments, with near-term contracts for copper and tin outperforming longer-term contracts [3][24][25] Group 3 - The concept of "expanding domestic demand" is emphasized as a strategic move, with a focus on increasing consumer demand supported by income growth and effective investment [4][31][32] - The government plans to enhance the second distribution of income by increasing minimum pension standards and implementing childcare subsidies, while future efforts may focus on optimizing the first distribution through wage reforms [4][31][32] - Historical examples from Japan and the US illustrate that income growth leads to increased service and new-type consumption, suggesting that China's current income growth initiatives could similarly boost consumer spending [4][31][32] Group 4 - The current market environment, characterized by limited macro elasticity and increased industry differentiation, suggests a shift in investment strategy towards tangible demand and domestic policy benefits as the new focus for 2026 [5][42][43] - Recommendations include investing in industrial resource products (copper, aluminum, tin, lithium, crude oil) that benefit from AI investment and global manufacturing recovery, as well as sectors poised for recovery in consumer spending (airlines, hotels, duty-free, food and beverages) [5][42][43] - Non-bank financial institutions (insurance, brokerage) are expected to benefit from capital market expansion and a rebound in long-term asset returns, alongside opportunities in China's equipment export chain and manufacturing sectors [5][42][43]

Group 1: Market Status - The correlation between A-shares and U.S. stocks has increased, with the 20-day rolling correlation of the CSI 300 and S&P 500 rising above the 90th percentile for the year, indicating a new normal of "overnight alignment, intraday reversal" [1][5][38] - Both the U.S. and China are in a phase characterized by limited upward elasticity and reduced downward risk, akin to a "Goldilocks" scenario, with the U.S. core CPI dropping to 2.6%, the lowest in three and a half years [1][8][9] - In China, corporate profitability has bottomed out, and the weakening of domestic demand creates a favorable environment for subsequent policy support [1][8] Group 2: AI Industry Chain - The investment in the AI industry chain is showing two key characteristics: broader macro effects benefiting "pan-AI" assets (copper, lithium, aluminum, energy storage, and electrical equipment) outperforming core AI assets (computing chips, optical modules, PCB) [2][17] - Investors are becoming less tolerant of the contradiction between aggressive capital expenditures and the lack of revenue growth in companies within the AI industry chain, leading to a negative correlation between stock performance and capital expenditure as a percentage of revenue [2][17][18] Group 3: Understanding "Expanding Domestic Demand" - The "income increase" plan aims to enhance net transfer payments to residents by 2025, with a focus on improving initial distribution through wage reforms, particularly in state-owned enterprises [3][25] - The expansion of consumption tax and adjustments in corporate income tax rates are expected to be seen in 2026, which may further stimulate domestic consumption [3][25][28] Group 4: Investment Strategy for 2026 - The current market conditions suggest a shift from a single industry narrative to a dual focus on "physical demand stimulation" and "domestic policy benefits," with recommendations to invest in industrial resource products (copper, aluminum, lithium, oil) and sectors benefiting from consumer recovery (airlines, hotels, food and beverages) [4][38] - Non-bank financial institutions (insurance, brokerage) are expected to benefit from capital market expansion and a bottoming out of long-term asset returns [4][38] - Opportunities are identified in China's equipment export chain and sectors showing signs of recovery in domestic manufacturing [4][38]

Group 1: Market Status - The correlation between A-shares and U.S. stocks has increased, with the 20-day rolling correlation of the CSI 300 and S&P 500 rising to over 90% since November, indicating a new norm of "overnight same direction, intraday reverse" [2][11][45] - Both the U.S. and Chinese economies are in a phase of "limited upward elasticity and reduced downward risk," with the U.S. core CPI falling to 2.6%, the lowest in three and a half years, and the unemployment rate rising to 4.6% primarily due to increased labor participation and temporary unemployment [2][13][47] - The Chinese economy shows signs of a bottom in corporate profits, while domestic demand is weakening, creating a favorable environment for subsequent policy support [2][13][47] Group 2: AI Industry Chain - The investment in the AI industry chain is showing two notable characteristics: first, "pan-AI" assets (copper, lithium, aluminum, energy storage, and electrical equipment) are performing better than core AI assets (computing chips, optical modules, PCB) [2][18][52] - Investors are becoming less tolerant of the contradiction between aggressive capital expenditures and the lack of revenue growth in companies within the AI industry chain, as evidenced by the negative correlation between stock performance and capital expenditure as a percentage of revenue [2][18][52] - Commodity prices for copper, aluminum, tin, and lithium carbonate have been rising since late October, driven by supply-demand dynamics, with near-term contracts for copper and tin outperforming longer-term contracts [2][19][53] Group 3: Understanding "Expanding Domestic Demand" - The articles published in "Qiushi" magazine emphasize the importance of consumer demand as a primary focus for expanding domestic demand, highlighting the need for a complete domestic demand system [3][24][58] - The strategy includes enhancing secondary distribution to increase residents' net transfer income and optimizing primary distribution to improve labor income, with potential reforms in state-owned enterprises to guide wage adjustments [3][25][58] - Historical examples from Japan and the U.S. show that periods of rising resident income lead to increased service and new-type consumption, indicating that the current "income increase plan" may boost demand for service consumption and technology-driven durable goods [3][27][58] Group 4: Preparing for 2026 - The current market conditions, characterized by limited macro elasticity and increased industry differentiation, suggest a shift in investment strategy towards "physical demand-driven" and "domestic demand policy dividends" as more certain avenues for growth [2][39][40] - Recommendations include focusing on industrial resource products (copper, aluminum, tin, lithium, crude oil, and oil transportation) that benefit from AI investment and global manufacturing recovery, as well as sectors like aviation, hotels, duty-free, and food and beverage that will benefit from increased consumer spending [2][32][39] - The non-bank financial sector (insurance, brokerage) is expected to benefit from capital market expansion and a bottoming out of long-term asset returns, alongside opportunities in China's equipment export chain and domestic manufacturing sectors [2][32][39]

格隆汇12月20日｜知名经济学家付鹏表示，此刻的AI市场，正复刻"要想富、先修路"的经典叙事。如 今，AI这条"公路"已基本铺设完毕。市场关注的是 AI 应用端是否有"车"跑。他称，若企业级应用能切 实实现规模化盈利，AI投资将步入价值兑现的新阶段。若下游应用场景无法兑现，前期巨额投入将转 化为沉重债务负担，行业泡沫可能迅速破裂。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is transitioning from a liquidity and valuation-driven phase to a new stage that emphasizes fundamentals and profit recovery, with a projected double-digit profit growth for the entire A-share market in 2026 [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Outlook - Most major domestic securities firms believe that the A-share market will remain in a bull market in 2026, with profit recovery being a key variable for market sustainability [1][2]. - The overall profit growth for the A-share market is expected to rise from 8.2% in 2025 to 10.3% in 2026, with the growth rate for non-financial sectors projected at 7.7% [12][64]. - The first half of 2026 is anticipated to maintain market momentum, but a significant transition may occur mid-year, particularly for sectors that have seen substantial gains [1][2][27]. Group 2: Sector Focus - The technology sector remains a consensus direction for 2026, with a shift from infrastructure investment to application and performance realization in AI, focusing on areas like robotics and smart driving [2][21]. - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to drive profit recovery in sectors such as steel, chemicals, and new energy, while resource products may present opportunities as they follow the technology sector [2][27]. - The report highlights four main areas for investment opportunities: AI, new energy, military industry, and innovative pharmaceuticals, with a focus on sectors that are expected to benefit from the "15th Five-Year Plan" [34][40][79]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - The investment strategy should prioritize "manufacturing as a shield and technology as a sword," emphasizing advanced manufacturing and AI as core components [40][44]. - The report suggests a rotation in market style from growth to value, particularly around mid-2026, as the market may shift focus based on liquidity and industry trends [68][69]. - The report emphasizes the importance of identifying high-performance sectors within the "future industries" and suggests a focus on resource security and energy [79][91]. Group 4: Financial Metrics and Predictions - The overall A-share market is expected to see a significant recovery in profitability, with non-financial net profit growth projected to rebound from 6.5% in 2025 to 16.5% in 2026 [33][64]. - The report predicts that the supply-side reforms will lead to a more balanced market, with a focus on sectors that have undergone significant price recovery and demand stimulation [27][92]. - The report indicates that the current market valuation structure remains healthy, with no signs of overheating, suggesting further upward potential [80][89].

jin 2025 年 12 月 19 日 震荡与突围：供给扰动下的再平衡 ---2026 年锡期货行情展望 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan@gtht.com 报告导读： 期 货 研 究 所 基本面方面，我们认为 26 上半年处于供需双弱的短缺格局，年中前后随缅甸掸邦第二特区复产面临边际宽松。 供应侧，2026 年总体有可观增量释放，供应面临边际宽松，主要来源于缅甸佤邦复产和印尼增产，同时关注刚果（金） 等非洲产区扰动，上下半年或将面临一定分化，呈现前紧后松的供应格局。缅甸方面，短期内同比减幅或有所收敛， 但上下半年面临分化。刚果（金）方面，冲突预计边际带来 1750 吨左右的减量。印尼锡锭方面，继续维持增长，向全 球市场输送增量。国内锡锭方面，仍需关注缅甸佤邦复产主导的原料供应情况。需求侧，AI 领域增速较快但基数较小， 多数终端需求仍然低迷。 2026 年全球供应为 36.9 万吨，增速为 0.3%，全球总需求为 37.8 万吨，增速为-0.8%。全球供需平衡缺口 0.9 万吨。中国供应约有 18.2 万吨，中国需求约有 18.5 万吨，供需或存在 0.3 万吨的缺口。策略 ...